Playing GP instead of SA?

[OTM Al]

If so, you've been played.

When I first came to New York, a common sight on the streets was the three card monte game. The dealer had it laid all out before you and made it look so easy, but what the foolish tourist never realized was that he was a mark and the guy making winning look so easy was a shill in league with the dealer. Welcome your new dealer, Magna.

I've been arguing with John Pricci over this subject the last few days as he has been glorifying Gulfstream and I've been asking him why and pointing out a few facts. In doing this, a scam of such lovely proportions opened right up before my eyes.

Fact 1: The new pick 6 is essentially a lotto game with a 52% take.

Fact 2: Gulfstream did not lower the take on any wager as has been inferred. They definitely raised the take on the supers a point as confirmed by Mr Ritvo and likely raised the take on tris as well to 26% as reported in the DRF on the track page. All other takeout levels have remained the same.

Fact 3: Gulfstream introduced fractional wagering and a new 15% take P5, both being hailed in the press as good for the bettor.

What's happened here? The boycott is potentially driving some players away from SA with their money going to places like GP. Mr. Pricci reports that SA handle is down about 17% and GP is up by the same amount, but it isn't really the same amount as GP handles twice as much as SA many days. So clearly even more money than the boycott amount is flowing into Florida. Not only that, but the tri and super pools have higher takes at GP than they do at SA even with the takeout raise (and since you've handicapped the P5 and you're going to watch it anyway.....). Magna is profiting by driving you from SA to GP. There wasn't just one schill in the crowd, but 2 and you didn't know which was which.

You've just been scammed. The fractional wagers and P5 were just a candy coating to a bitter pill you just swallowed. It's genius really. And some of you thought the executives were stupid.....

[affirmedny]

does the fact that Gulf has almost twice as many horses per card than SA enter into the equation? Fuller fields = better handle.

[jelly]

Good points.

I only bet the pk-5 and pk-4 so im happy betting gulfstream and not Santa Anita.

[skate]

field size babe, you must consider field size with your comparison

[chickenhead]

Yeah, I agree with the facts, but not the grand plan side of it -- yes I do think they are far too stupid for that. The 26% rake on tris and supers are bad for business long term. Adding a point to the super and the tri over the last two years is stupid, not smart. They might be taking share thanks to total ineptitude and inability to put on a race anyone wants to gamble on at other places, but overall market is still shrinking. They'd be taking more share with lower takeouts.

I don't like the Pick 6 format at all. I'll attribute some smarts that they were smart enough to augment it with an attractive pick 5....If this type of 6 spreads, it'll be stand alone most places, most tracks can't support a 6 and a 5. Which isn't attractive. The pick 6 is as it stands under normal rules is very abusive to bankrolls...this new format makes it 100x worse. The new format makes the bad side of a normal P6 worse, while making the good side of it worse too, imo. But, if they bring a big pool into last day I'll be there along with everyone else.

[Spiderman]

Have not bet a dime on dime P6, makes no sense to do that.

Only play P5 and P4 if not live on P5 ticket.

Will bet win and exacta in last 4-5 races

It is more important to deny the high-handed CHRB their attempt at robbery than any nuance of betting which track.

[OTM Al]

does the fact that Gulf has almost twice as many horses per card than SA enter into the equation? Fuller fields = better handle.

All part of the candy coating on the pill. Meant to mention it but forgot.

[OTM Al]

Yeah, I agree with the facts, but not the grand plan side of it -- yes I do think they are far too stupid for that. The 26% rake on tris and supers are bad for business long term. Adding a point to the super and the tri over the last two years is stupid, not smart. They might be taking share thanks to total ineptitude and inability to put on a race anyone wants to gamble on at other places, but overall market is still shrinking. They'd be taking more share with lower takeouts.
worse too, imo.

Of course, but you must admit that they set up one heck of a bait and switch. They raised take but are still hauling in more money. I guarantee they know they did that.

[chickenhead]

The other thing, while I hate the Pick 6, and it does have an implied ridiculous take to the normal bettor -- that isn't the track take. The track gets I believe 20%. From the tracks point of view, it isn't a huge honey pot that it makes a lot of sense to push people into. It reduces churn and they only get a normal share. The track will make far more money having people bet WPS every race and churn their money over and over than dump it into this P6.

[chickenhead]

Of course, but you must admit that they set up one heck of a bait and switch. They raised take but are still hauling in more money. I guarantee they know they did that.

I agree, I give their marketing department high marks. I'm sad to see 26% pools get any play, at all.

California, for all the crap they get, rightfully so -- having a CHRB at least ensures everything is public and debated before hand. I wouldn't want to copy the CHRB themselves in every state, but that format certainly has its upsides for us.

[OTM Al]

The other thing, while I hate the Pick 6, and it does have an implied ridiculous take to the normal bettor -- that isn't the track take. The track gets I believe 20%. From the tracks point of view, it isn't a huge honey pot that it makes a lot of sense to push people into. It reduces churn and they only get a normal share. The track will make far more money having people bet WPS every race and churn their money over and over than dump it into this P6.

It's not handling that much to make that much difference yet. Their hope would be to inflate the thing so big that people start pounding it, but unlike a regular P6 the more the play on this thing the less likely the pool gets taken down.

[cj]

I agree the takeout raises at Gulfstream haven't gotten near the negative press they should have, from HANA or anyone else. It was wrong to pass off the P4/P5 as a positive when the raise in the already oppressive takeout on tris and supers canceled it out. At least, however, there are some new, decent options for bettors offered.

Santa Anita merely raised prices on the biggest pools while offering a HORRIBLE product. They offered nothing new or any discounts. They are getting exactly what they deserve. If you had to choose between which track should be punished, I think it is a no brainer it should be Santa Anita. Only so many battles can be waged at the same time.

I'll probably get killed for this, but is NYRA working to rescind the "OTB" takeout raise now that there is no OTB? We were told all along they didn't want it.

[DeanT]

I agree the takeout raises at Gulfstream haven't gotten near the negative press they should have, from HANA or anyone else. It was wrong to pass off the P4/P5 as a positive when the raise in the already oppressive takeout on tris and supers canceled it out. At least, however, there are some new, decent options for bettors offered.


I spent close to two hours on the phone with the Pres of GP beforehand. It was a tough call what to do with them and it was bounced off a bunch of people. It was the first time speaking with them, as it is a new management team from the casino side.

First, supers and tris did not go up, supers did by 1%. We told players that.

Second, the pick 6 is now a lotto bet, and took zero dollars last year at 15%.

Third, the pick 5 at 15%, which should take good money, was created because players could have a low takeout horizontal to play, if they wish.

Fourth, they eliminated the rebate cap they had for small players, so if you play at an ADW, you can get several points of takeout back - and you dont have to be a whale.

Fifth, they created a new pick 4 (by polling their players last year, which we found proactive), and added smaller fractional wagers, which players have been asking for, for some time.

Sixth, they plan to meet with HANA (if anyone else wants to join, or submit questions or concerns) in a month to make sure their actions above are doing some good, and overall takeout of a blended fashion is down, not up. They have also offered to meet with players on new bets next year, and have said in the press if the meet shows some promise, lower takeout is on the menu. We'll report back on that.

Seventh, they helped with the turf scratch thing last year everyone found insulting. It is currently in the FL gaming commission.

So, overall, it was decided that since they are being proactive, we have not had any contact before, and they are willing to be a partner in some player-centric policies in the future, we will let players know the facts (like the above, which we outlined on the blog) and let them make their own decisions.

That's where GP stands. So far, I (personally) am somewhat confident the future can bring a better product at a lower price for horseplayers there. But clearly, actions speak louder than words, so we will be monitoring actions and making statements about them forthwith.

[cj]

That's where GP stands. So far, I (personally) am somewhat confident the future can bring a better product at a lower price for horseplayers there. But clearly, actions speak louder than words, so we will be monitoring actions and making statements about them forthwith.

I get all that. I just don't think they should get a free pass for raising an already oppressive takeout. It is hardly a huge thing though relatively speaking.

I'd like to address the timer, again. For exhibit number 84 over the past few years, see today's 6th race. Gulfstream has historically had the most unreliable timer in the sport. Nobody seems to care.

[DeanT]

I get all that. I just don't think they should get a free pass for raising an already oppressive takeout. It is hardly a huge thing though relatively speaking.

I'd like to address the timer, again. For exhibit number 84 over the past few years, see today's 6th race. Gulfstream has historically had the most unreliable timer in the sport. Nobody seems to care.

I have to start keeping a list. Let me write that down to remember. So far this meet I have takeout, the scratch rules in FL and the timer. Lord knows I prolly missed some things already.

[chickenhead]

I have to start keeping a list. Let me write that down to remember. So far this meet I have takeout, the scratch rules in FL and the timer. Lord knows I prolly missed some things already.


The problem is that so many problems exist. I don't think he's criticizing you or HANA for not fixing them, he's just noting something that's been broken for a long time. It's something they should have fixed a long time ago.

The good news for all tracks, it's a target rich environment for making improvements! Increasing customer satisfaction should be a cinch.

[DeanT]

It'd be great if we had some sort of full time people to get to all the problems from our perspective as players. We're just up against so much. Horsemen groups get piles of cash from slots, for example, sometimes millions a year to lobby for their issues. Breeders get something like 2% of handle up here, or a share of slots or something for theirs. Someone posted on the PR recently about the battle going on - the "CHRB has a $12M budget and HANA has 12 cents".

People like CJ, me, you, Roger, Jeff and all the other players out there who make up such a big part of the sport have to scratch and claw in our free time. It is what it is I guess. Just keep plugging.

[OTM Al]

The problem is that so many problems exist. I don't think he's criticizing you or HANA for not fixing them, he's just noting something that's been broken for a long time. It's something they should have fixed a long time ago.

The good news for all tracks, it's a target rich environment for making improvements! Increasing customer satisfaction should be a cinch.

Dean, I am absolutely not criticizing HANA here and if I had I would take it back after what you say. There still is a confusion about the tri rates as the DRF I had today listed them at 26% after being 25% last year, though Mr Ritvo from Magna told Mr. Pricci that they hadn't changed so who knows what's going on as I've not been able to find the rates anywhere on the GP site.

As for the NYRA extra percent from the OTB fiasco, that's a question I keep meaning to ask. It shouldn't be avoided as it is a good one.

CJ nailed here though. SA was easy because of how bad it was to start with, but if takeout increases are wrong, then they are wrong even when the rest of the product is good.

[DeanT]

There still is a confusion about the tri rates as the DRF I had today listed them at 26% after being 25% last year, though Mr Ritvo from Magna told Mr. Pricci that they hadn't changed so who knows what's going on as I've not been able to find the rates anywhere on the GP site.


I dont take it that way Al re: HANA.

It's problem #55 - takeout rates being published. It took BillW hundreds of hours to scour to find takeout rates for our HANA list we publish, and sometimes the sources he first found were so out of date (some of the rates published on the web we found were five years old that we had to correct when we found out via simo contract). As I understand it, GP (not telling anyone of course, which tends to be par for the course) upped the tri take last year (I do not think Ritvo was there). We did not know about it.

I am still not 100% sure what the exact rates were last year, as now my inbox says the pick 6 take was 20%, not 15%. But I will try and get a simo contract and check.

One thing we are asking is for all tracks, as a good business practice, publish their rates on the web, and if they change them they release it. GP is amenable to doing that going forward.

With GP, from what I have been told, they think blended take will be down this meet. But like I said, we will look at that more closely in a month or so and see what we can find out when handle numbers are weighted averaged.

[toussaud]

This is extremely sily


I don't bet exotics, i'm old school lol. But if I did, I would have absolutely no problem with GP's 26% rake, they have freaking 14 horses in every field.

The issue with Santa Anita is not just the takeout.. but raising the takeout when you are offering a piss poor product to begin with, that's the underlying issue here, not just the takeout in itself.



Today, gulfstream park ran 10 races. 9 of them had fields of at least 10 horses, and the one that didn't had 9. You know what, when you offer me that type of value, I'll concede a small hike in rake. You have done your job and then some as a track.


Santa Anita on the other hand, ran 9 races did not offer 1 race, with more than 8 horses. And only 1 with 8. On a freaking Sunday.


You can't possibly compare the two and if you are, you are just simply trying to prove a point and you dont' care about the reality of making money.





Stop playing with words and sending out half truths to make a point.

[OTM Al]

Sometimes I think, as I read comments on the web or walk around the track, that we as players get exactly what we deserve.

[peislander]

Dean,

Add to list of questions, what happen to their youtube page for replays which has not been updated all year?

[cj]

This is extremely sily

I don't care if they run 100 horse fields, 26% is ridiculous.

[jelly]

I don't care if they run 100 horse fields, 26% is ridiculous.




Agree,you have to be pretty desperate to bet into a 26% take.

[magwell]

Agree,you have to be pretty desperate to bet into a 26% take....Most people at the track have no idea what a 26% take means not a clue, ask some time when your in line it could be 36% it don't matter to the squares it never did.....:cool:

[cj]

...Most people at the track have no idea what a 26% take means not a clue, ask some time when your in line it could be 36% it don't matter to the squares it never did.....:cool:

Yes, but they run out of money.

[Rutgers]

I'll probably get killed for this, but is NYRA working to rescind the "OTB" takeout raise now that there is no OTB? We were told all along they didn't want it.



As for the NYRA extra percent from the OTB fiasco, that's a question I keep meaning to ask. It shouldn't be avoided as it is a good one.



The “1% OTB takeout increase” expired on September 15, 2010. (The law was written with a "sunset" provision.) The new takeout rates ranges for NYRA are 12-17% for regular bets (WPS), 14-21% for multiple bets (exactas and DD), 15-25% for exotics (P3, P4, tri and super) and 15-36% for super exotics (P6) regardless of whether there is a carryover or not.

NYRA can ask the NYSRWB for takeout rates within those ranges. As far as I know, NYRA has not asked for any changes. (Of course, that is not saying much because I have no connection to NYRA or the NYSRWB.)

Here is a link to the applicable statute:

http://public.leginfo.state.ny.us/LAWSSEAF.cgi?QUERYTYPE=LAWS+&QUERYDATA=$$PML238$$@TXPML0238+&LIST=LAW+&BROWSER=EXPLORER+&TOKEN=11106847+&TARGET=VIEW

For those interested here is the applicable wording of the same statute in effect prior to September 15, 2010 which went into effect in September 2008.

§238. Disposition of pari-mutuel pools of the franchised corporation; percentage payable to state as a tax; authority of counties or certain cities to impose a tax. 1. * (a) The franchised corporation authorized under this chapter to conduct pari-mutuel betting at a race meeting or races run thereat shall distribute all sums deposited in any pari-mutuel pool to the holders of winning tickets therein, provided such tickets be presented for payment before April first of the year following the year of their purchase, less an amount which shall be established and retained by such franchised corporation of between sixteen to seventeen per centum of the total deposits in pools resulting from on-track regular bets, and eighteen and one-half to twenty-one per centum of the total deposits in pools resulting from on-track multiple bets and twenty-six per centum of the total deposits in pools resulting from on-track exotic bets and sixteen to thirty-six per centum of the total deposits in pools resulting from on-track super exotic bets, and twenty-six to thirty-six per centum when such on-track super exotic betting pools are carried forward, plus the breaks…..


So NYRA doesn't need to fight to rescind the 1% as it has already been rescinded.

[toussaud]

Agree,you have to be pretty desperate to bet into a 26% take.
You will make more money betting into a 13 horse field with a 26% takeout than you will in a 6 horse field with a 22% takeout.

Don't mistake what I am saying with agreeing with the hike. I don't. But with that said, their job is to give the horse players an opportunity to turn a profit. GP does that, even with the takeout being what it is. SA's exotics, you really are an idiot if you are playing those unless you have some serious, serious advantages.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

You will make more money betting into a 13 horse field with a 26% takeout than you will in a 6 horse field with a 22% takeout.

Don't mistake what I am saying with agreeing with the hike. I don't. But with that said, their job is to give the horse players an opportunity to turn a profit. GP does that, even with the takeout being what it is. SA's exotics, you really are an idiot if you are playing those unless you have some serious, serious advantages.
I think what you mean to say is that there are possibly more value combos available in a 13 horse field with 26% takeout than a 6 horse field with a 22% takeout. However, if $100,000 is wagered on both, an extra $4,000 is taken out of circulation in the bigger takeout scenario...not only that, but many times the IRS takes some money out of circulation due to the larger payouts 13 horse fields brings.
The 22% takeout scenario definitely has more churn associated with it, as big hits create a lot less short term hits as well.

[toussaud]

yes you are correct. I am well aware of that.

I understand, you are taking money out of my pocket by raising the takeout. I, 10000% get that. But, in that scenerio, it's still the lesser of two evils when it comes to playing Santa Anitas, 5 horse 22% takeout exacta.

Building websites is my trade. I build alot of ecommerce websites, and when the merchant decides they want to raise the transaction rate, it takes money out of everyone's pockets. But at the end of the day, that's just one part of the equation. Would you rather pay 2.59% at say, Wells Fargo and be worry free that you are going to get your deposits in 3 business days come rain, sleet hail or snow,or would you rather pay 2.35% to paypal and have to worry every time an overseas order comes in or every time tranaction above the avg amount you take in, is going to freeze your account?

The rake is just part of the equation, and while, I don't at all agree with 26%.. basically that's 260 dollars of a 1000 wager, that's too much. But still, money is there to be made. I am sure in the future they will drop the rate, they are very bettor friendly, but in the mean time, there is no question as to which offers more value.

SA would have to drop their exotic rate well into the teens for it to be comparable to what you can do at gulfstream.

[OTM Al]

Turns out that the take on tris at GP did not go up this year. It was raised during last year to 26% and there it remains.

[DJofSD]

Excuse my ignorance, but what does the following mean:

Seventh, they helped with the turf scratch thing last year everyone found insulting. It is currently in the FL gaming commission.

What is the turf scratch thing?

[Zman179]

Excuse my ignorance, but what does the following mean:



What is the turf scratch thing?

If they take a race off the turf, that particular race would be considered an "all" for Pick 3/4/5/6 purposes if the first leg for that particular wager has already been completed.

[DJofSD]

OK, thanks, now I understand.

[OTM Al]

That's where GP stands. So far, I (personally) am somewhat confident the future can bring a better product at a lower price for horseplayers there. But clearly, actions speak louder than words, so we will be monitoring actions and making statements about them forthwith.

So how do you feel about your chances now given GP's current behavior? They get into a full scale war with CDI I really don't see any positive changes happening. That is of course assuming the same management group makes it to next year...

Maybe they sort this thing out, but this started with the same GP management you were lauding for being proactive. Preemptive is more like it...

[DeanT]

So how do you feel about your chances now given GP's current behavior? They get into a full scale war with CDI I really don't see any positive changes happening. That is of course assuming the same management group makes it to next year...

Maybe they sort this thing out, but this started with the same GP management you were lauding for being proactive. Preemptive is more like it...

If they make it to next year I am still confident some good changes will be made.

[OTM Al]

If they make it to next year I am still confident some good changes will be made.

They didn't or at least not the CEO

http://blogs.trb.com/entertainment/news/gambling/blog/2011/06/another_gulfstream_ceo_steve_c.html

[point given]

They didn't or at least not the CEO

http://blogs.trb.com/entertainment/news/gambling/blog/2011/06/another_gulfstream_ceo_steve_c.html

Maybe Collabro will end up at Monmouth as the new lease there is to start soon if negotiations continue there and are agreed to.