Freehold Picks, Sat., Jan. 15, 2011

[Teach]

Live from the home of "Afternoon Delight," Freehold Raceway in Freehold, New Jersey...It's SAL, "Saturday Afternoon Live"...with your host, Walt...a.k.a. "Teach," "The Harness Maven," With guest appearances by: "The Voice," Larry Lederman; "The Orange Crush," Andy Ray Miller; The "Pandy Man," "Gentleman Jim" Pantaleano; "The Flying Frenchman," Daniel Dube; Catello "The Cat-Man" Manzi; Pat "The Harvard Man" Berry; "Eric the Red" Abbatiello; Harry "The Falcon" Landy; Steve Smith; Jack Baggitt, Jr; "Yogi" Sheridan; Vinny Ginsburg, Matt Romano and a host of others.

I'll be back with my first-race picks in about twenty minutes.

[Teach]

Race One:
In the opener, I'm leaning toward: #3 Cam's Conqueror. In this case, it's Alla Famiglia (not to be confused with an Italian restaurant in the Pittsburgh area). The horse is owned by the Andy Miller stable. He's driven by "The Orange Crush," and he's trained by Miller's wife, Julie. This 9-year-old Cam Fella-bred gelding looks solid. He may even be able to do it on memory...if he's ready. Yes, there are caveats: (1) the horse hasn't had a pari-mutuel start in about two months. Prior to that, the horse hit a "soft patch" (he did not hit "the Big M" tote in four starts); (2) the horse's qualifier, about ten days ago, was "pedestrian"...they walked the first three-quarters. Finally, (3) as cited -- how fit is he? I'm willing to take my chances; yet, not in a two-fisted manner. Further, this horse will likely go serious chalk. In the end, I believe Miller will be able to control the pace...and thus, the race. Underneath: I like a few horses. Frankly, I'm intrigued by the #1 Racketeer with "Eric The Red" Abbatiello. The horse had previously drawn a horrendous string of starting posts; yet, his times and efforts have been decent. However, this Jate Lobell-bred gelding had just one win in 26 starts in 2010 (he's three-for-48, lifetime). Those figures don't exactly inspire much confidence. Another "It's a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" (What Churchill said about Russia in the fall of 1939) is the #2 Mon Ami Hall. For one, the horse is dropping down in company. Two, the horse is finally getting a decent starting post. Yet, I know little about the driver, Bill Mann. I know he's won races, but his UDR is below the "Mendoza Line" (baseball term). However, I still believe that with a good trip, this horse, as Marlon Brando would say in "On The Waterfront," could be a "Contendah". Others worthy of mention are: #5 JatesTouchinHeaven had no chance from the eight-hole last time. He draws here. He fits. If Vinny Ginsburg can get him to the front, this horse becomes more of a factor. He's faced better in the past. Also, #7 Devil's Grin with Daniel Dube has been competitive at this level. The horse has hit the board in six of his last ten tries. If Dube (catch-driving for Montrell Teague) decides to go for the top, it would make this horse's chances of hitting the board even more appealing.

[Teach]

Race Two:

I like the #6, Colorful Dreams. It's another "D-and-T": Driven by Andy Miller, Trained by Julie Miller. On New Year's Day, this horse was parked for a good part of the mile and finished third. Yet, this Niatross-bred horse has the ability to take this one if he's reasonably ready. (1) He has the driving skills of Andy Miller; (2) He has raced against tough 3-year-old competition in the New York State Sires series last summer; and (3) He has recently turned in a qualifier in which he beat his competition by twenty-five lengths in 1:57 (I'm sure he could have gone even faster). The question remains: Is he ready? (does that sound like a familiar refrain?). If he is reasonably ready, he can get all the enchiladas. Underneath: #2 TrueRoyalty showed little in his last; yet, I see him as the major danger. Daniel Dube, "The Flying Frenchman," ("On les aura!") is one of the best. The horse does have a good starting post. I was impressed with his race at Yonkers on December 21st where he charged out to the lead from the seven-hole only to finish fourth after leading the field to the top of the stretch. I believe this horse should be considered for all your gimmicks. #5 Special Strides with Harry "The Falcon" Landy looks like a factor here. The horse did win his last by three lengths. This is a nicely bred Jenna's Beach Boy horse that may be rounding into solid racing shape. I believe this horse is worthy of serious consideration. #3 Hal's Legacy gets first-time lasix. That medication should be a big help. Jim Pantaleano in the bike is also a plus. Frankly, it looks like the horse was hurt in December (two back-to-back last-place finishes; yet, he may be on the mend). If the horse is ready, he might just complete a tri or super. I might just check the tote. Finally, #4 Four Starz Elder with Matt Romano fits well in this field (he recently faced better at The Meadowlands). This is a very well-bred horse who might just complete a gimmick.

[Teach]

Race Three:

The third race on today's Freehold card is the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial Pace. In this all African-American driver race, I'm going with the #2 Finally Finished with Nathaniel Sheridan (I assume he's related to Newton "Yogi" Sheridan). Yes, Nathaniel Sheridan is a provisional driver, but I believe he's driving the horse that can win this race. At the very least, this horse fits nicely in this field; he's hit the board in six of his last seven tries. A good trip would seem to be all that's needed for this horse to be right there at the wire. Underneath: the logical horse and likely fave is the Montrell Teague-driven #4 horse, InThePocketThisTime. Teague is well known in harness racing circles for campaigning down in the DelMarVa area. He is certainly the most experienced driver contending in the King Memorial Race. If this horse gets the lead and Teague can control the pace. He may be very tough to collar. Much will depend on how easily Teague gets this horse to the quarter-pole. If the fraction is modest -- say around :29 secs. --- then this horse will be tough top beat. On the other hand... Well, as Paul Harvey used to say: "Now you know the rest of the story." Also, in the mix is the #1 Jeremy with the aforementioned Newton "Yogi" Sheridan. "Yogi" Sheridan is a most capable driver with a good horse and an excellent starting slot; he should be considered in your gimmicks. Then, there's #3 Prince Of A Fella with Ceba Horsey. Frankly, I don't know much about the driver, Ceba Horsey. Save for the fact that Ceba is a provisional driver. I do know that the #3 horse is certainly capable of hitting the board; he finished either first or second in his last two. Finally, #5 Ridge Rocket is in his last harness racing campaign. He's a solid veteran pacer with earnings of around 250K. If he gets the trip, he can make some noise. It's likely that the horse will be contending for the lead. What kind of trip will he get?

[Teach]

Race Four:

I'm picking #6 Fort Ord with Andy Miller. I make no apologies. "The Orange Crush" is the best driver campaigning at Freehold. The horse is trained by Andy Miller's brother, Erv Miller. This horse is well-bred (RocknRoll Hanover and Jate Lobell) and well-named (the dam is Monterey; it is the location in California of what is left of Fort Ord). This horse was hitting the board consistently at Pocono in the late spring and summer. The horse is now back on the track after a six-month layoff. I guess the only question: Is He Ready? If he's reasonably fit, he should easily handle this field. Underneath: #4 Heir Man with Pat Berry looks like a threat. The horse finished second in his last. The switch to Berry should help. I believe this horse has as good a chance as any to be part of an exacta or trifecta. #1 Boston Red Sock draws the rail and has the services of Jack Baggitt, Jr. That's a noteworthy combination. I believe this horse can hit the tote. True, he hasn't shown much lately; but he has had a series of outside starting posts. Another horse that might just surprise and complete a tri or super is #2 Magical Dragon with Jim Marshall. The horse fits in this company. Four races back, he finished second from the eight-hole at nearly 180-1! Yikes! If he does pick up the pieces in an exotic, he would likely add value to the ticket. Finally, the driver change to Cat Manzi on #3 Zion Train is most significant. The horse can easily be part in this race.

[Teach]

Race Five:

I'm looking for some value with #7 Albert Street A. This Albert Albert-bred gelding has hit the board in eight of his last ten starts (five of those were wins). The horse has been both consistent and sharp. I realize that the seven-hole is not the best of starting slots, but this horse is capable of overcoming that impediment. If Eric Abbatiello can get this horse on or near the lead (there's not much early speed) without too much difficulty, he immediately becomes a player. Much will be determined in the first fifteen or twenty seconds of the race. Underneath: #4 Ideal Artist with "The Cat Man" is certainly a factor. He's hit the board in his last three. #1 Perdition ("Who, day and night, must scramble for a living, play the Freehold "ponies," pay his weekly debts. And who has the right, as master of the house, to give his wife money for the mall. The Papa, the Papa!....Tradition!") is certainly a factor from the rail. He fits nicely here and can be part of your gimmicks. #5, Western Avenue, with "Gentleman Jim" Pantaleano can get part in this race. The horse has hit the board in six of his last eight tries. He's been running very consistently at Chester, PA. Finally, #2 Shoot First has admittedly not hit the board in his last three...but to pick up the pieces in a super.

[Teach]

Race Six:

#4 Pass The Deck with Steve Smith is my choice to take this race. The horse set a 1:55.2 mark in winning on New Year's Day. Although not a lifetime mark (1:51,4 at The Big M as a 5-year-old), it bettered by over two seconds the best mark this horse had done last year. In his current good form, Pass The Deck should prevail over this field. All that would seem to be needed would be a untroubled trip. Underneath: #5 Sir Sisu, the perennial bridesmaid, finally won a race about a month ago. I like this horse to be part of the mix. I would be surprised if the horse won here; yet, stranger things have happened. This horse should be considered in your exotics. #1 Lil Star Too with Andy Miller does draw the rail. The horse finished fourth in his last in this company. I believe he fits here. The orange-white-and-blacks colors of Andy Miller in the bike add a lot to this horse's chances of hitting the tote. #7 Stopwatch N could surprise and be part of the mix. Will the horse leave with Jack Baggitt, Jr.? This horse is worthy of consideration and might just add value to your gimmick plays. Finally, #2 Talbot Redneck with Jim Pantaleano in the bike has been performing capably down at Chester. True, he hasn't won in any of his recent efforts; yet, he might just pick up the pieces in your super.

[Teach]

Race Seven:

I'm going with #4 Medoland Mac. The horse won his last in this company. He now comes into a race that is begging for a closer. If there are fast early fractions, this horse's chances improve exponentially. Much will be determined in the first :30 to :45 secs. Underneath: there are the logicals. They obviously cannot be ignored. #5 Mr. Coolie with Andy Ray Miller is most definitely a horse to be respected in this field. The horse won his last as the odds-on fave in this race last December. My only concern is the one-moth hiatus between starts. Does he need a tightener? On his best, this horse should be in the mix. Others to be considered are the: #1 McMelody with Jack Baggitt, Jr. This horse was narrowly second to my top pick in the January 1st race. Only in that race, McMelody drew the seven-hole, He now gets the pylons. He should be a factor. #2 RC Raider turned in a blisteringly fast time against weaker in his last. Any repeat of that effort makes him a factor here. Finally, #8 Mr Excellent with Cat Manzi should not be overlooked despite the outside starting post. That qualifier at The Meadowlands was very good. A few months ago, the horse turned in some exceptional times at Harrington in very impressive company. If the horse leaves, he becomes even more of a tote-hitting factor.

[Teach]

Race Eight:

Here's a try for some value. Yes, I'm going to cast my lot with the #5 Lightning Moon with Glenn Berger. Driver Glenn Berger is not a household name; yet he's had the knack, in the past, of bringing home unlikely winners. Yes, it's more hunch than substance; yet, I believe this horse might have a chance of upsetting the apple-cart. This past fall, Lightning Moon won at Chester in an outstanding time of 1:50.4. The horse was continually going off as the odds-on favorite down in PA. I'm not sure he'll continue to fly under the radar (Philly Airport is a hop-skip-and-jump from Harrah's Chester) screen at Freehold, but I believe the horse has as good a chance as any of winning this race. Underneath: #3 ItTakesTwoBaby with Jack Baggitt, Jr. is very much a factor here. The horse has won three of his last five (albeit in slightly weaker company). Yet, on his best, this horse is in the mix. Others that are worthy of consideration are: #1 Yankee Skyfire. The horse will benefit from starting alongside the pylons. He's hit the board in four of his last seven pari-mutuel tries. He certainly could add value to your gimmicks. Moving outside, I like #8 Southwind Irvin. Yes, the eight-hole is a challenge. Yet, what can you say about a horse that won five-in-a-row. He merits consideration and respect. If the horse leaves (I suspect he might) and finds a tuck, he becomes even more of a threat. Finally, #7 Imposter A has made some good starts at Chester over the past few months. Is the horse good enough to pick up the pieces in a superfecta? Possibly?

[Teach]

Race Nine:

#1 Lavros Fling N has faced better recently without much success. The horse now draws the rail. I think the drop in class and the move to an inside starting post will serve as a wake-up call that propels this horse into getting his picture taken. Underneath: #2 Fleeting Desire is being driven by Andy Miller. This is a big shift. It can't help but improve this horse's chances. Last time, the horse jumped to the lead but had an interference break. Hopefully, Andy Miller can guide this horse to a tote-board-hitting finish. #3 Moosehead Jack is also coming down in company. That class drop should enhance this horse's chances. #5 Kaufman Hanover with Harry Landy could do little last time from his number-eight starting post. The horse got parked out badly after making a run at the half. All he had to show for his efforts was some fresh Freehold air. This time should be different. An improved post should help. Finally, #6 Zepplelin Blue Chip is getting a slightly improved post after two-straight number-eight starts. The horse should not be ignored. The horse will benefit from both the services of Jim Pantaleano and a slight class drop. Those two factors alone makes this horse worthy of consideration in your gimmicks.

[Teach]

Race Ten:

I'm going with the outside horse, #8 BT'S Spice of Life with Any Miller. Yes, this is an "iffy" pick that depends on everything going perfectly (unfortunately, that usually doesn't happen). Yet, Andy Ray is capable of getting this horse into the mid-pack from the outside post. If he can successfully do that as the horses reach the quarter-pole, then this horse becomes a win factor. Much will depend on the first :15 to :20 secs. of the race. My only caveat is that the horse has been off for about a month. Underneath: #3 Kathryn Dancer A certainly figures here. Yet, this is another horse that has been away from the races for nearly a month. Does he need a tightener? #7 Lemon Drop Hall did qualify about a week ago. Yes, the number-seven starting slot can be imposing. Yet, this horse has the speed to be a factor...if he's ready. I don't believe he can be ignored. I might take a peek at the tote from time to time. #5 Sterling's Yankee turned in a sterling effort at Chester three races back. If the horse runs like he did on that occasion, he's a major factor here. Finally, #3 Peteantnart with Bill Carter has been most consistent in recent tries. The horse has hit the board in nine of his last ten tries. Most of those came against slightly weaker company in the Catskills. Yet, the horse did well last time (finished second) in this kind of company at Freehold.

[Teach]

Race Eleven:

I'm going with #5 Doggone Incredible with Matt Romano. Can the horse make it two in a row? I believe so. Last week's win in this company was most impressive. Actually, this horse has been on quite a hot streak. He's won five of his last six; most of those wins came from his efforts at "The Spa." If the horse can repeat last week's effort, he should get his picture taken. Underneath: #1 Luck Goes Around could do little in two recent starts at The Big M. He now returns to Freehold where he finished third against slightly better company. The horse looks like he fits nicely. He also looks like he should be able to hit the board. I'm gonna move outside now to the #6 Cam's Future with Steve Smith. Cam's Future finished fourth from an eight-hole start in his last. Prior to that the horse finished second in slightly better company. He looks like a factor with these. Also, #7 Micheles Dream Guy might be able to pick up the pieces in an exotic. The horse did win his last, albeit against slightly weaker. The seven-slot starting position is usually imposing, but this horse may be able to overcome that liability. Finally, #8 Pembroke Crankcall should not be ignored. The horse has hit the board in eight of his last ten starts. Jim Pantaleano is a most capable reinsman. This horse may well be able to overcome the outside starting post and come flying down the stretch to hit the tote. A speedy pace up front would help this horse.

[Teach]

Race Twelve:

#3 Ryan Again has had some difficult starting posts in recent efforts. Today, he draws the number three starting slot. That should help, along with the ever-improving Vinny Ginsburg in the bike. I believe the horse fits well in this company and should, with a good trip, be right there at the wire. Underneath #2 Bruce Kennedy with Adam Rucker has faced better at The Meadowlands in recent efforts. However, the horse has had little to show for his recent trips around the East Rutherford oval. It's quite possible that a change of scenery will benefit this horse. On his best, he should be right there. #7 Jake Of Hearts has the services of "The Pandy Man," Jim Pantaleano. That's a plus right there. The horse did win his last against stronger. He's hit the board in all four of his recent starts. #3 Ricky MCardo has finished third in his last two. I don't see this horse getting his picture taken; but to finish off a tri or super... That's a possibility. Finally, #1 Kings Point Grey gets the rail and the promising Harry Landy. That combination should help this horse be a factor in this race. The horse doesn't appear to have the speed to win, but to pick up the pieces in an exotic....

[Teach]

Race Thirteen:

In the Freehold finale, I like #2 Magic Dancer with Jack Baggitt, Jr. The horse won his last in this company and can easily repeat. Baggitt is one of the best gate-drivers in harness racing. He should have this horse on or near "the engine." Underneath: #6 Ludi Christy is another horse that fits well in this competition. The horse has the services of the most capable Jim Pantaleano. He also has the speed to be right there near the front of the field as the horses reach the quarter-pole. This horse, with a smooth trip, should be a factor in this race. He looms as the major danger to the top choice. Also, #3 Tylers Echo N with Matt Romano. This horse has hit the board in four of his last six. The horse's times at Pocono were quite impressive. Anything resembling those efforts and this horse can be part of your gimmicks. #7 Tremendous Hanover ran a very impressive race last time; he went from last to first and won by 3 and 1/2 lengths. Not too shabby. The horse is certainly capable of doing it again here; he should not be overlooked. Finally, #8 Blazing Finale with Harry Landy is capable of picking up the pieces despite the number-eight starting slot. He won his last convincingly, albeit from the number-one start position.