Odds line revisited

[MitchS]

Hi Everyone :)

First off I'm trying to post a table from Excel so I can explain my situation with a visual. I'm using a program called "HtmlMaker" to bring my table over to this message board. I've used this on other message boards and it works fine. For some reason its not working over here at PA? Basically this "HtlmMaker" lets you copy and paste a short snapshot of anything from Excel onto a message board that supports HTML. Funny thing is that the code posts over on PA's message board fine but when I go to preview the post, the preview is blank, nothing is there?

My first question is then how do I post HTML code into this message board.

Thanks,
Mitch

[Dave Schwartz]

I believe that HTML may be turned off on this board. <any forums do that because of security issues.

[MitchS]

Ok, Thanks Dave! I'll try something else to post the table. Maybe I can post on another HTML board and then copy and paste from that board to this one. I'll figure something out.

[MitchS]

I remember having trouble posting tables on this forum in the past. Don't seem to have this trouble on other forums? Anyway, the only way I can figure out how to post an example is through my server.

This two race example is in an XL zip format-
www.ultimateprecisiongaming.110mb.com/2Race-EX.zip

This link is formatted is a pdf-
www.ultimateprecisiongaming.110mb.com/2Race-EX.pdf


The above two examples are from PEN on tonight's card. One race is a 12 horse field and the other is a 7 horse field.

Odds line's are at the far right-

V-L9 odds line works off of SR-L9
V-L odds line works off of SR-L


I've experimented with different odds lines in the past and I'll admit that I have tremendous difficulty wrapping my brain around this!

In the above race examples odds lines was a formula used from Dick Mitchell I believe.



Formula1- .0245*(60+(39*((COLVAL-COLMIN)/(COLMAX-COLMIN))))-1.46
Formula2- (1/((COLVAL/COLADD)))) -1.20

COLVAL- This returns each value of the column specified
COLMAX- This gets the maximum value appearing in the column specified.
COLMIN- This gets the minimum value appearing in the column specified
COLADD-This adds all the values appearing in the column specified.


Formula 1- will be drawing information of COLVAL,COLMAX,COLMIN and COLADD off of the SR-L9 column.

Formula 2- will then draw the information off of formula 1 and this is the odds lines on the sheet.


To be frank, I'm not crazy about these formulas and the results they produce. I'm looking for a better way that will represent a line with a little more accuracy. Actually this basic formula isn't bad, I know its pretty simplistic compared to what others may do or use. I've heard something of using Z factors within XL and such etc...

In the 7 horse field example the line seems reasonably reflective where as the 12 horse field is not which makes sense. Most of my winners come from the top 5 selections so it seems that I need to weight these lines to reflect that?

Thanks ahead of time for any thoughts on this matter.
Mitch

[Dave Schwartz]

Mitch,

The easiest way is to post a screenshot.

Dave

[MitchS]

I use Screen Hunter for screen shots but I've never posted screen shots on a forum. I've only done screen shots in email. I'd still need to upload the screen shot to my server and then post it on the forum right? Or...can I post the screen shot directly from my computer to the message board?

Mitch

[CBedo]

Easiest way is to use something like TinyGrab which uploads anything you take a screenshot of to a url which you can post for others to view.

[MitchS]

Easiest way is to use something like TinyGrab which uploads anything you take a screenshot of to a url which you can post for others to view.

Thanks, I'll make a note of that for future reference since I've already uploaded the files.

[Jay Trotter]

CBedo & others,

I could use some help posting stuff as well. As many of you know I'm running the P.A.I.H.L. and am posting the results live throughout the day; along with standings, etc. and it's been a real bugger posting in a neat, presentable manner. All the work is done in Excel, so any help on what I might do to post would be greatly appreciated.

Trotter:ThmbUp:

[Ray2000]

The method I use for odds line generation is based on the Std dev of the spread of values. I've added 3 columns to your spreadsheet, Col "AD" is the rating - the average / stddev. Col "AE" is an exponential equation using the Col "AD" number and 2 constants A & B which fit the field size. Col "AF" converts decimal odds to text.

The constants should be tweaked to give the best fit as determined by the sum of the Probabilities being 1.0

The ones I put in this sheet (see "=CHOOSE(AH2,0,0,0,0,4.4,5.7,6.6,7.7,9.1,10.3,11.6, 12.7,14,15) in the cell for consA") are for Field sizes 5-14 and ratings in the 90-110 range. If you need to or want to adjust them I'll post another spreadsheet that does that. (Can't attach more than one to a reply). If you like it you should be able to adapt the method to your Sheet.


Your file with my additions is to large to attach. You can find it at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/




.

[MitchS]

Nice! Thank you so much. The line looks great, I love it! The relationships look good. Scratched some horses down to see how these relationships changed and it looks very nice!

I have a few questions. First thing is that I'm really not a programmer but I do manage to get by with the skills I have and I'm learning as I go. I make my figs using another program that's in a pretty simple language to understand. I pipe these numbers to Access, then to my sheet in Excel. The only code on the sheet itself is the color coding the gives the Yellow and green highlighting for the top 2 figs in certain columns.

This one sheet covers however many races there are at one particular track. The code that was used to highlight the top two figs used through line 150 to cover the max probable with about 10 races on one sheet.

I noticed that in the code that you put in my sheet that it calculates for the first race but that it didn't calculate for the second race? Is it possible to add through line 150 so it calculates a possible 10 races on the one sheet? Each race is separated by the top header.

I'm now gonna' ask a really stupid question but I have absolutely no idea if this is possible or not. Can a code (like your odds line code) replace an existing column? Override it and display the output?

For example- Instead of V-L9 on my sheet, your code would replace that column with its output? So in essence the sheet would look the same but the odds line calculation in the V-L9 would be the code that you implemented for the odds line?

If that's the case then I would want to replace the V-L9 with your code that relates the the SR-L9 column and ALSO replace the V-L odds line column that relates to the SR-L fig's.

My question is then, is that possible? If not then I guess I'll need to hide and or eliminate the current V-L9 and V-L columns and replace them with two new columns that relates to your code.

I'll go take a look at your code and see if I can understand it a bit better.

Thanks again, it looks great!
Mitch

[Ray2000]

I removed the cell names in the sheet that is now at
http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/

so now you can select range AD2:AH15 ... then copy and paste it to cell AD17. You can do this for all races on the card if you allow enough rows, say 20, so there's no overlap. (short fields could overlap)

Is there a reason why copying the cells that hold the new odds and "Paste Special values only" to overwrite the numbers in an existing column of odds isn't feasible? If not a macro could be used.

Attached is the spreadsheet with the same formulas but with sliders to adjust the constants. Setting Constant A close to or slightly less than the field size is best.

Have fun with it.

[MitchS]

Ok, I'll take a look here shortly, gotta' eat breakfast! Good thing I'm not following any races today. It looks like I'm going to be having fun playing with a new toy :)

Thanks again, and I may have some questions later!
Mitch

[MitchS]

Ray,

I just wanted to stop in and thank you again. I'm extremely delighted with your odds line formula! Need to dial in the numbers a bit but other than that I've got a pretty good handle on it. Thank you again and if there's anything that I can ever do for you just let me know!

Have a great day,
Mitch