AQU Race 9 -- Loose Horse

[PaceAdvantage]

Anybody catch that one? :7: horse loses jock at the break...bolts way to the outside fence IN A STRAIGHT line (head pointed to the barn area) coming out of the far turn....then looks to be slowing down and checking out where he can jump the fence along the backstretch and disappears out of the picture....then all of a sudden, as they turn for home, THERE HE IS...on the RAIL...and he gets up to finish second... :lol:

Plus he won the gallop out... :lol: :lol:

[johnhannibalsmith]

A good rider makes all the difference.

[PICSIX]

I think the 2 should have came down! I key boxed the 9 with all. :mad:

[the little guy]

Anybody catch that one? :7: horse loses jock at the break...bolts way to the outside fence IN A STRAIGHT line (head pointed to the barn area) coming out of the far turn....then looks to be slowing down and checking out where he can jump the fence along the backstretch and disappears out of the picture....then all of a sudden, as they turn for home, THERE HE IS...on the RAIL...and he gets up to finish second... :lol:

Plus he won the gallop out... :lol: :lol:


Shockingly, I bet him.

Tough to gauge.....but hard to believe that horse doesn't win with a rider.

[garyscpa]

I think the 2 should have came down! I key boxed the 9 with all. :mad:

Yep, it looked like the 2 interfered at the start and again in the home stretch. I missed watching the 8th race at Gulfstream because I was so involved watching the 7 in the replay.

[Broad Brush]

I singled the 2 in heavy doubles and was sure he would come down.
I guess this is one of those "it all evens out" things.

I put Greeley's Law (#7) in my stable mail..he sure did not give up!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Anybody catch that one? :7: horse loses jock at the break...bolts way to the outside fence IN A STRAIGHT line (head pointed to the barn area) coming out of the far turn....then looks to be slowing down and checking out where he can jump the fence along the backstretch and disappears out of the picture....then all of a sudden, as they turn for home, THERE HE IS...on the RAIL...and he gets up to finish second... :lol:

Plus he won the gallop out... :lol: :lol:

I saw that and was rolling!!!It looked like on the backstretch he was going to fall over the outside rail.Then there he is from out of the clouds pulling into the place spot like a freight train!!!HAHAHAA!!

He has only raced a handful of times.If they could every calm him down and focus his energy he could win some money.All that energy burnt up and he still ran a good,albeit Twilight Zone,race!

[Stillriledup]

And they say weight doesn't matter!

[PaceAdvantage]

And they say weight doesn't matter!Part weight, and part not having a jockey GET IN HIS WAY... :lol:

A good jockey doesn't get in the way of his own horse...too bad GOOD jockeys are few and far between.

Weight or no weight, it absolutely amazed me to see that horse do what he did...it's worth a catch on the replay if you haven't seen it...

[thaskalos]

Part weight, and part not having a jockey GET IN HIS WAY... :lol:

A good jockey doesn't get in the way of his own horse...too bad GOOD jockeys are few and far between.

Weight or no weight, it absolutely amazed me to see that horse do what he did...it's worth a catch on the replay if you haven't seen it...I remember hearing Pat Day say that the best jockeys were the ones who hindered their horses the least.

[Shelby]

Part weight, and part not having a jockey GET IN HIS WAY... :lol:

A good jockey doesn't get in the way of his own horse...too bad GOOD jockeys are few and far between.

Weight or no weight, it absolutely amazed me to see that horse do what he did...it's worth a catch on the replay if you haven't seen it...

I think a rule change should be in the works. No jockey? No problem. If the horse runs a clean race, count it.

:cool:

[garyscpa]

I think a rule change should be in the works. No jockey? No problem. If the horse runs a clean race, count it.

:cool:

But the jockey doesn't get his fee if he jumps, he only makes what he bet on the race. :)

[Stillriledup]

I think a rule change should be in the works. No jockey? No problem. If the horse runs a clean race, count it.

:cool:

I would have no problem betting on a race where they just loaded horses in the gate and opened the gate with no jocks on board.

[garyscpa]

I would have no problem betting on a race where they just loaded horses in the gate and opened the gate with no jocks on board.

Yeah, don't ever bet on a horse stretching out or shortening up. :)

[Grits]

I wish I had seen this!!!

[Shelby]

But the jockey doesn't get his fee if he jumps, he only makes what he bet on the race. :)


:rolleyes: Details, details....



:lol:

[Shelby]

I would have no problem betting on a race where they just loaded horses in the gate and opened the gate with no jocks on board.

Well, that happens a lot at Mountaineer....

:lol:

KIDDING



ba-da-boom....I'm here all week, folks....

Seriously, JUST kidding. I like Mountaineer....I just seem to always get my butt kicked there when I bet.

[Some_One]

First race Sunday at Aqu had something similar, the fav from the 1 post went straight right at the start, interfered with 2-3 horses, went out set an easy lead and cruised home.

[onefast99]

I would have no problem betting on a race where they just loaded horses in the gate and opened the gate with no jocks on board.
Just like the Greyhounds.

[PaceAdvantage]

First race Sunday at Aqu had something similar, the fav from the 1 post went straight right at the start, interfered with 2-3 horses, went out set an easy lead and cruised home.I guarantee this race was nothing similar to the one you mention...watch the replay and be amazed...

[the little guy]

I guarantee this race was nothing similar to the one you mention...watch the replay and be amazed...

There is a similarity....both races featured a winner that did something at the start that enhanced its chances of winning.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

There is a similarity....both races featured a winner that did something at the start that enhanced its chances of winning.

They both veered right and seemed to cause a chain reaction among 4 to 5 others directly to their outside.

[PaceAdvantage]

There is a similarity....both races featured a winner that did something at the start that enhanced its chances of winning.But I'm writing strictly about the actions of the loose horse...

Looking back, I see Some_One was talking about the actual winner...my apologies to Some_One for being overzealous and sticking to the topic of the thread.... :lol:

[joanied]

I wish I had seen this!!!

Grits, and anyone else wants to see it...here ya go:

http://www.nyra.com/Aqueduct/Broadcast/Video/Video.shtml

How did the rider come off...I didn't see any reason, just lost his balance?
I wish we could see where the horse (obviously a Mr. Greely colt/gelding) was around the turn, but did you guys notice he finished 2nd without even trying...he was in an easy gallop...he'll go off the favorite next time out...and maybe have a dab on super glue on his saddle:D ...glad the jock is OK!!

[AlbertButtry]

But I'm writing strictly about the actions of the loose horse...

Looking back, I see Some_One was talking about the actual winner...my apologies to Some_One for being overzealous and sticking to the topic of the thread.... :lol:

I said the same thing when I watched the race. I thought the horse was jumping the outside fence. Then out of nowhere he is back on the rail, and angled out past the 9 to get up for second lol

[CincyHorseplayer]

Grits, and anyone else wants to see it...here ya go:

http://www.nyra.com/Aqueduct/Broadcast/Video/Video.shtml

How did the rider come off...I didn't see any reason, just lost his balance?
I wish we could see where the horse (obviously a Mr. Greely colt/gelding) was around the turn, but did you guys notice he finished 2nd without even trying...he was in an easy gallop...he'll go off the favorite next time out...and maybe have a dab on super glue on his saddle:D ...glad the jock is OK!!

Thanks for the link Joanie,it only took a second to sign up.

Did you see the Greeley horse change lanes around the 16th pole to get around that tiring horse??!!!!I was dying rewatching it.That has to be the strangest race,at least by 1 horse I ever saw.Leads in the turn goes out and to a near stop,then comes charging home!!!!I'm going to put him on my horsewatch right now

[pandy]

I have a huge ROI betting back loose horses won finished first, many won at big prices. I was watching this particular race and I thought the horse ran a monstrous race.

[the little guy]

I have a huge ROI betting back loose horses won finished first, many won at big prices. I was watching this particular race and I thought the horse ran a monstrous race.


Could you give us some examples please?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I have a huge ROI betting back loose horses won finished first, many won at big prices. I was watching this particular race and I thought the horse ran a monstrous race.
I can't remember many who won back. My take is that if a horse unseats its rider, the rider next time out, no matter if it is a changed rider, is extra cautious, and if the horse clipped heals the horse itself might be a little skittish next time out.

[precocity]

lmao funny how he was just skimming the rail like..LOOK AT ME.... :lol:

[pandy]

Could you give us some examples please?

I don't keep lifetime records of all my bets but we followed this angle in my yahoo email group and at one time three loose horses that finished 1st came back to win a row and every one was a longshot. The fact that the horse threw the rider definitely does not make the rider nervous next time out or anything like that, jockeys are tough customers that don't scare easily. I actually don't think this horse will be bet next time because I believe that most handicappers discount a loose horse's effort, plus the odds usually go up because many bettors view it as a negative (for instance a horse that's rank, green, hard to ride, etc.).

My view is, if a horse is loose and is smart enough to go ahead and win the race, it shows that A). the horse is in shape, B). the horse is a natural competitor. In this case the horse did not win the race, I prefer when they win but he did have a rough trip and ran big. Many horses that lose the rider pull up or run to the paddock, which to me is a negative, shows no natural instinct to win. By the way, whoever started this post, next time keep it to yourself if you want a price.

[the little guy]

I don't keep lifetime records of all my bets but we followed this angle in my yahoo email group and at one time three loose horses that finished 1st came back to win a row and every one was a longshot. The fact that the horse threw the rider definitely does not make the rider nervous next time out or anything like that, jockeys are tough customers that don't scare easily. I actually don't think this horse will be bet next time because I believe that most handicappers discount a loose horse's effort, plus the odds usually go up because many bettors view it as a negative (for instance a horse that's rank, green, hard to ride, etc.).

My view is, if a horse is loose and is smart enough to go ahead and win the race, it shows that A). the horse is in shape, B). the horse is a natural competitor. In this case the horse did not win the race, I prefer when they win but he did have a rough trip and ran big. Many horses that lose the rider pull up or run to the paddock, which to me is a negative, shows no natural instinct to win. By the way, whoever started this post, next time keep it to yourself if you want a price.


I'm sorry, who were the horses again? It's hard to imagine not remembering the actual names in such an unusual occurance. I've been playing the races for over 35 years and am hard pressed to come up with even one example. Not to say there haven't been any, and you claim that you have made lots of money betting them, so surely a couple of names must stick out. Or even one.

Just a simple list with some rough dates is fine. You don't have to write a few paragraphs.

[pandy]

Sorry, I don't remember any of the names, I haven't bet one in a couple of years, it doesn't happen that often, although there was a stretch where it did produce several plays over a few months. I bet hundreds of races a month, I can't remember the names of the horses, they were just claiming horses.

[Cardus]

Sorry, I don't remember any of the names, I haven't bet one in a couple of years, it doesn't happen that often, although there was a stretch where it did produce several plays over a few months. I bet hundreds of races a month, I can't remember the names of the horses, they were just claiming horses.

Do you have other esoteric angles that you'd like to share?

[pandy]

Do you have other esoteric angles that you'd like to share?

Hey, guys, don't bet them if you have doubts.

[the little guy]

Sorry, I don't remember any of the names, I haven't bet one in a couple of years, it doesn't happen that often, although there was a stretch where it did produce several plays over a few months. I bet hundreds of races a month, I can't remember the names of the horses, they were just claiming horses.


I'm just having trouble putting these two posts together. I must be getting old.



I have a huge ROI betting back loose horses won finished first, many won at big prices. I was watching this particular race and I thought the horse ran a monstrous race.

[PhantomOnTour]

Horses do the darndest things.
That was fargin incredible.

[wisconsin]

I'm just having trouble putting these two posts together. I must be getting old.


It's not difficult. If you play everday or very often, you're going to see it. I was at Gulfstream in person last January when a horse threw the jock and was 10 lengths in front at the finish. My wife took a picture, I'm looking at it right now. I wish I could post it here, but it's a print here in my office. It's a :7: , but I cannot recall a name, but who cares.

7 days later I hammer this horse in the double, and with an easy horse in leg one, I collect about $30 twenty times. He won under a hand ride by five.

[the little guy]

It's not difficult. If you play everday or very often, you're going to see it. I was at Gulfstream in person last January when a horse threw the jock and was 10 lengths in front at the finish. My wife took a picture, I'm looking at it right now. I wish I could post it here, but it's a print here in my office. It's a :7: , but I cannot recall a name, but who cares.

7 days later I hammer this horse in the double, and with an easy horse in leg one, I collect about $30 twenty times. He won under a hand ride by five.


What you just wrote, whether true or false, is not what I was discussing with the previous poster.

What was the name of the horse you are discussing. Surely, with it being just a year ago, you have his or her name.

[wisconsin]

What you just wrote, whether true or false, is not what I was discussing with the previous poster.

What was the name of the horse you are discussing. Surely, with it being just a year ago, you have his or her name.


No, I don't. I happened to be at Gulfstream, never bet the race described. I "happened" across the horse the following Sunday because the line said "lost rider" and I was there the Sunday before. 2 + 2. Who even cares what it's name was? I bet so many circuits over the course of a year, the names are quickly forgotten anyhow. It's not like the days of old, where I played on circuit only, and remembering certain things such as having the last winner before the Arlington Park fire in 1985. (Boy from Bliss), or the first horse I ever bet (Orange Float) and won back at Sportsman's.

You tell me that this is not what you guys were discussing? Horses that crossed the wire first, but without a rider, as a bet the next time out?

[classhandicapper]

This is extremely interesting because it's something that has been in the back of my mind for a long time that I never actually thought through or looked at carefully.

We've all seen horses throw their rider and win anyway.

I think the first reaction of most people is that the horse was simply a well behaved and trained animal taking advantage of not having to carry any weight.

However, we've all also seen horses like that that didn't bear out or do something else stupid get beaten badly, picked up in the stretch despite still trying etc... anyway.

Considering that most people just draw a line through a "lost rider" performance or consider it a negative, I think a compelling case can be made that it's at least worth while paying closer attention to horses like that. Unfortunately, now that the cat is out of the bag, forget it. :rolleyes:

[the little guy]

You tell me that this is not what you guys were discussing? Horses that crossed the wire first, but without a rider, as a bet the next time out?


Perhaps your story is correct, and surely some horses will lose riders that will figure to win their next starts, though that is very random, but what is being discussed is an assertion that was made of a " huge ROI " on " many " that won at " big prices. " This is not what you said in your haste to defend an indefensible assertion.

[Cardus]

No, I don't. I happened to be at Gulfstream, never bet the race described. I "happened" across the horse the following Sunday because the line said "lost rider" and I was there the Sunday before. 2 + 2. Who even cares what it's name was? I bet so many circuits over the course of a year, the names are quickly forgotten anyhow. It's not like the days of old, where I played on circuit only, and remembering certain things such as having the last winner before the Arlington Park fire in 1985. (Boy from Bliss), or the first horse I ever bet (Orange Float) and won back at Sportsman's.

You tell me that this is not what you guys were discussing? Horses that crossed the wire first, but without a rider, as a bet the next time out?

People's memories are different, but if you posted that you had a "huge ROI" by using a highly unusual situation -- horses throwing jockeys is rare occurrence -- don't you think that you'd be able to produce at least ONE instance? Just one?

It's not like being asked to recall who filled out the exacta with your top choice in the 5th two weeks ago at Aqueduct.

I have always maintained that a quality common to successful handicappers is a strong memory. I could be wrong.

[wisconsin]

Perhaps your story is correct, and surely some horses will lose riders that will figure to win their next starts, though that is very random, but what is being discussed is an assertion that was made of a " huge ROI " on " many " that won at " big prices. " This is not what you said in your haste to defend an indefensible assertion.


I don't know how "big" the prices have been, but I'm willing to bet if you are cris-crossing the country with the proliferation of online wagering and access to all tracks and replays, it's an angle that I think does exist, and somebody, such as the pandycapper, is able to exploit it. It's just another extension of trip handicapping.

I do feel that the key is how well the horse does after losing a rider. The race at Aqueduct, well, rider or not, that was pretty impressive. I'm fairly certain pandy is not talking about just any horse who throws a rider, but one who actually showed something, and I don't mean an easy rail trip all the way around.

[classhandicapper]

Perhaps your story is correct, and surely some horses will lose riders that will figure to win their next starts, though that is very random, but what is being discussed is an assertion that was made of a " huge ROI " on " many " that won at " big prices. " This is not what you said in your haste to defend an indefensible assertion.

I don't think it's an indefensible assertion?

It's conceivable. In fact, so much so I am thoroughly pissed off at myself for never thinking of looking at this angle.

About the only names of horses I can recall are the two biggest scores of my life and most famous stakes horses, but I have to think pretty hard to come up with some of those. Aging is not pretty. ;)

What you are really saying is that you won't believe him without the names so you can check on it. That's also a perfectly reasonable position because so many horse players of FOS. I tend to trust Pandy though because he's never come off the wrong way.

[Cardus]

I don't think it's an indefensible assertion?

It's conceivable. In fact, so much so I am thoroughly pissed off at myself for never thinking of looking at this angle.

About the only names of horses I can recall are the two biggest scores of my life and most famous stakes horses, but I have to think pretty hard to come up with some of those. Aging is not pretty. ;)

What you are really saying is that you won't believe him without the names so you can check on it. That's also a perfectly reasonable position because so many horse players of FOS. I tend to trust Pandy though because he's never come off the wrong way.

The circus is in town...

[the little guy]

We need a BS room on this board.

PA!!!!!!!

[wisconsin]

People's memories are different, but if you posted that you had a "huge ROI" by using a highly unusual situation -- horses throwing jockeys is rare occurrence -- don't you think that you'd be able to produce at least ONE instance? Just one?

It's not like being asked to recall who filled out the exacta with your top choice in the 5th two weeks ago at Aqueduct.

I have always maintained that a quality common to successful handicappers is a strong memory. I could be wrong.


Well, consider my ROI to be huge $40 into about $600 in the one and only instance where I actually played this obscure angle. I guess it must not be true if I don't have a name to go with the story.

Now, this was in the past year. I can imagine, if I am able to watch everyday, say 50 races 5 days per week, or about 12,000 races a year, I just might see this a couple of times and take advantage of it. Sounds pretty reasonable when you reduce it to the ridiculous, doesn't it?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Can't anyone with a computer program and a big data base just clear this up?
What is the ROI for horses who either clipped heals dnf, and/or lost rider in their last race?

[Cardus]

Well, consider my ROI to be huge $40 into about $600 in the one and only instance where I actually played this obscure angle. I guess it must not be true if I don't have a name to go with the story.

Now, this was in the past year. I can imagine, if I am able to watch everyday, say 50 races 5 days per week, or about 12,000 races a year, I just might see this a couple of times and take advantage of it. Sounds pretty reasonable when you reduce it to the ridiculous, doesn't it?

It possibly started with the ridiculous. To what it has been reduced, I do not know.

[classhandicapper]

The circus is in town...

I'd love to know what you think is funny about what I am saying.

1. I "am" pissed off that I never considered charting every horses that won impressively while riderless to see how they ran next out compared to what their previous race might have suggested.

2. My two biggest scores were on horses named First Queen and Via Appia, but I hit several horses this week on other angles and can't recall the name of a single one.

3. I've had several conversations with Pandy, read his yahoo group on occasion (under a different name), read his comments here, and have always been impressed with his knowledge. I have never had any reason to question any of his assertions about his results and he's not prone to bragging. I think he's an excellent handicapper and a winning player. So if he says he's won using this angle as a core to the play, I believe him.

4. I can fully understand why others don't agree with #3 or would like to see evidence because most horse players are FOS about their results.

[tubesockshakur]

Anybody catch that one? :7: horse loses jock at the break...bolts way to the outside fence IN A STRAIGHT line (head pointed to the barn area) coming out of the far turn....then looks to be slowing down and checking out where he can jump the fence along the backstretch and disappears out of the picture....then all of a sudden, as they turn for home, THERE HE IS...on the RAIL...and he gets up to finish second... :lol:

Plus he won the gallop out... :lol: :lol:
.....sure did, had him in the tri. the other 2 ran 1st and 2nd...wasnt :lol:

[the little guy]

What does First Queen have to do with this conversation....and can you give me some specifics about this horse please.

[FantasticDan]

We need a BS room on this board. PA!!!!!!!
Go on down to the General Off-Topic forum. It's a steaming turd the size of a Volkswagen bus. :blush:

[classhandicapper]

What does First Queen have to do with this conversation....and can you give me some specifics about this horse please.

It's got nothing to do with this conversation other than making a point about memory.

The implication of your comments was that Pandy is full of shit because he can't name some of the horses that he won on years ago using this riderless horse angle. I am telling you that I can't name a lot of horses I have won money on using other profitable angles either, but I still know the angles were profitable and that I had high ROIs using them.

Just because he can't comply with your request does not mean he is FOS.

So perhaps rather than calling him out, the prudent thing to do would be to start analyzing some of these horses to see how they do relative to what you would have expected based on prior races.

[Cardus]

Go on down to the General Off-Topic forum. It's a steaming turd the size of a Volkswagen bus. :blush:

Very descriptive.

[Cardus]

It's got nothing to do with this conversation other than making a point about memory.

The implication of your comments was that Pandy is full of shit because he can't name some of the horses that he won on years ago using this riderless horse angle. I am telling you that I can't name a lot of horses I have won money on using other profitable angles either, but I still know the angles were profitable and that I had high ROIs using them.

Just because he can't comply with your request does not mean he is FOS.

So perhaps rather than calling him out, the prudent thing to do would be to start analyzing some of these horses to see how they do relative to what you would have expected based on prior races.

He couldn't name one, and you Blame me and others for being skeptical. How is being skeptical unreasonable in this instance?

C'mon bro.

[the little guy]

It's got nothing to do with this conversation other than making a point about memory.

The implication of your comments was that Pandy is full of shit because he can't name some of the horses that he won on years ago using this riderless horse angle. I am telling you that I can't name a lot of horses I have won money on using other profitable angles either, but I still know the angles were profitable and that I had high ROIs using them.

Just because he can't comply with your request does not mean he is FOS.

So perhaps rather than calling him out, the prudent thing to do would be to start analyzing some of these horses to see how they do relative to what you would have expected based on prior races.


Tell me about Via Appia and First Queen...specifically....or you are lying too. It's really very simple.

[classhandicapper]

He couldn't name one, and you Blame me and others for being skeptical. How is being skeptical unreasonable in this instance?

C'mon bro.

I said I understand the skepticism.

When most people tell me they are winning players or have a winning angle I start with the assumption they are FOS. However, like I said, I personally trust that he's telling the truth based on prior experience with him and don't find the memory issue to be a disqualifying point because I can't remember shit anymore when it comes to names of horses. Seriously, I have way more important things to remember than the names of a horses I hit years ago off private purchases, 2nd times starters with blinker change for trainer "X", etc...

Obviously you are free to be skeptical of him and me.

[classhandicapper]

Tell me about Via Appia and First Queen...specifically....or you are lying too. It's really very simple.

I can tell you all the specifics, but the point was that these were the two biggest hits of my life and I actually struggled to remember their names.

They were both trained by Frank Wright, 2nd time starters that ran horribly first time out, blinkers on, MSW race. He used to move his second time starters up a lot fairly often, usually with blinkers on and usually in MSW races, but not always.

It was a time when almost no one had any data on trainer patterns. This angle only came up a couple times a year. So it was not something you would notice via casual observation or even if you got the DRF every day.

I hit a few of them (I can't remember any of the names) and made pretty good money.

I decided to send it in heavily on one of them (I think it was First Queen but I can't remember which of the two above came first). The horse came in and paid about $47 give or take. When the next one ran I really sent it in. It it also came in and paid a similar price. When the next one ran (can't remember the name) I really sent it in again and it came in 4th. Soon after the public caught on, he retired and that was that, but it was many thousands later. Most of the names escape me.

[the little guy]

I can tell you all the specifics, but the point was that these were the two biggest hits of my life and I actually struggled to remember their names.

They were both trained by Frank Wright, 2nd time starters that ran horribly first time out, blinkers on, MSW race. He used to move his second time starters up a lot fairly often, usually with blinkers on and usually in MSW races, but not always.

It was a time when almost no one had any data on trainer patterns. This angle only came up a couple times a year. So it was not something you would notice via casual observation or even if you got the DRF every day.

I hit a few of them (I can't remember any of the names) and made pretty good money.

I decided to send it in heavily on one of them (I think it was First Queen but I can't remember which of the two above came first). The horse came in and paid about $47 give or take. When the next one ran I really sent it in. It it also came in and paid a similar price. When the next one ran (can't remember the name) I really sent it in again and it came in 4th. Soon after the public caught on, he retired and that was that, but it was many thousands later. Most of the names escape me.


OK. What was memorable about the day First Queen won? How far apart were these two horses?

Military Order was one of the next ones. He got nailed at 30+:1. I cried.

[the little guy]

By the way.....that was impressive.

[Cardus]

I can tell you all the specifics, but the point was that these were the two biggest hits of my life and I actually struggled to remember their names.

They were both trained by Frank Wright, 2nd time starters that ran horribly first time out, blinkers on, MSW race. He used to move his second time starters up a lot fairly often, usually with blinkers on and usually in MSW races, but not always.

It was a time when almost no one had any data on trainer patterns. This angle only came up a couple times a year. So it was not something you would notice via casual observation or even if you got the DRF every day.

I hit a few of them (I can't remember any of the names) and made pretty good money.

I decided to send it in heavily on one of them (I think it was First Queen but I can't remember which of the two above came first). The horse came in and paid about $47 give or take. When the next one ran I really sent it in. It it also came in and paid a similar price. When the next one ran (can't remember the name) I really sent it in again and it came in 4th. Soon after the public caught on, he retired and that was that, but it was many thousands later. Most of the names escape me.

Quite a difference between this post and initial post about the "riderless horse angle" post, no?

[classhandicapper]

OK. What was memorable about the day First Queen won? How far apart were these two horses?

Military Order was one of the next ones. He got nailed at 30+:1. I cried.

Was Military Order the one that had a 3 length lead at the 1/8th pole on a really rainy day and finished second by half length?

There was one like that that has an incredible story for me personally that I'd be willing to tell and it would make you laugh your ass off.

I believe First Queen might have been Travers day because I recall that I was home and my best friend put the bet in for me. He went to Saratoga with his coworkers and some of my other friends. I could not go. I could be mixing the two horses up though. I recall I was sweating bullets until I got the call that the bet was in and he had the money. All my friends made a major score and I was a hero.

The other horse I bet at OTB and found out I won in a phone booth downstairs in I think Penn Station. I turned my boss on to that one too. Did wonders for my career at the time. lmao Not sure how far apart they were, but it wasn't a huge amout of time.

[the little guy]

Was Military Order the one that had a 3 length lead at the 1/8th pole on a really rainy day and finished second by half length?

There was one like that that has an incredible story for me personally that I'd be willing to tell and it would make you laugh your ass off.

I believe First Queen might have been Travers day because I recall that I was home and my best friend put the bet in for me. He went to Saratoga with his coworkers and some of my other friends. I could not go. I could be mixing the two horses up though. I recall I was sweating bullets until I got the call that the bet was in and he had the money. All my friends made a major score and I was a hero.

The other horse I bet at OTB and found out I won in a phone booth downstairs in I think Penn Station. I turned my boss on to that one too. Did wonders for my career at the time. lmao


It was the Day Affirmed got disqualified in the Travers. It was the 1st race. Tilt Up beat Beat Inflation ( a VERY good Hooper older horse ) by a head in the second race. The double paid $200 ( First Queen was 25:1 ). It was the first of the Frank Wright horses I bet....but I didn't miss any of the others. Via Appia paid $48. That was a VERY memorable day.

Military Order was during my winter break from College. I remember listening to the call in my parent's living room ( there was a radio station from Scenectady, 3WWD, that used to play the replays right after the race ). It was a crushing blow.

[classhandicapper]

Military Order was during my winter break from College. I remember listening to the call in my parent's living room ( there was a radio station from Scenectady, 3WWD, that used to play the replays right after the race ). It was a crushing blow.

I told my grandmother about that horse because she was a regular at the OTB. :lol:

I had my day planned. I was going to the bank, withdrawing a bundle, going to OTB, and betting heavily.

When I went outside it was pouring rain and my car would not start. I was totally freaking. I only had about $50 in my pocket and not enough time to get any more money and get to the OTB because they weren't close and I would have to take buses. I ran every step of the way to OTB and was soaked from head to toe when I got there. I got the $50 bet down just in time. He lost by a half length.

I walked home in the rain drenched, beaten, and with mixed emotions because I didn't win, lost for my grandmother :rolleyes:, but saved a lot of money.

I walked to my grandmother's house to apologize because I knew she was going to bet much more than she could probably afford. When I got there she was beaming. I was like, what's up? She said she had him to win and place and in some kind of exotic or something. All I know is she won a lot and offered to fix my car. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Do I have to close this thread too?

~~sigh~~

[Cardus]

NYRA's fault.

(Now you can close the thread. I am sure that there are a few emoticons that I can employ here, no?)

[riskman]

I have always maintained that a quality common to successful handicappers is a strong memory. I could be wrong.

You are. Personally,I would remember if I bet and won on Giacomo or Mine That Bird in the Derby or
Volponi who thrashed Medaglia d’Oro in the 2002 Classic by 6 1/2 lengths.[ I didn't have them] but most likely would not remember the geldings name of the SNWI X at Aqueduct 6th in January of last year that went wire to wire and paid $93.

More power to you if you have such brilliance.

[Dahoss9698]

You are. Personally,I would remember if I bet and won on Giacomo or Mine That Bird in the Derby or
Volponi who thrashed Medaglia d’Oro in the 2002 Classic by 6 1/2 lengths.[ I didn't have them] but most likely would not remember the geldings name of the SNWI X at Aqueduct 6th in January of last year that went wire to wire and paid $93.

More power to you if you have such brilliance.

I don't think my tag team partner is wrong at all. It's not a requirement obviously as there are many ways to win. But I think being able to recall things at ease certainly helps and enhances handicapping.

[Cardus]

You are. Personally,I would remember if I bet and won on Giacomo or Mine That Bird in the Derby or
Volponi who thrashed Medaglia d’Oro in the 2002 Classic by 6 1/2 lengths.[ I didn't have them] but most likely would not remember the geldings name of the SNWI X at Aqueduct 6th in January of last year that went wire to wire and paid $93.

More power to you if you have such brilliance.

A strong memory is not "brilliance," it is a characteristic or aptitude. It is not necessarily a sign of intelligence per se.

[classhandicapper]

A strong memory is not "brilliance," it is a characteristic or aptitude. It is not necessarily a sign of intelligence per se.

I think there are different areas of memory and some are more helpful to handicapping than others.

I don't think I ever had a great memory for names, but I do remember some things very well.

I don't consider it a problem if I can't remember and recall the name of a horse or trainer instantly. It would be more of a problem if I couldn't remember a trainer pattern or trip that was significant to a race.

[cj]

Can't anyone with a computer program and a big data base just clear this up?
What is the ROI for horses who either clipped heals dnf, and/or lost rider in their last race?

Unless you also track where the horse "finished" without the rider, information that is not normally published, it is not possible.

[classhandicapper]

Unless you also track where the horse "finished" without the rider, information that is not normally published, it is not possible.

That's why I initially suggested that anyone that is curious or doubtful about whether the winners and other big performers could be profitable should begin tracking how they do relative to their prior races. Most people simply draw a line through the "lost rider" line and ignore it, but there could be some incremental information gleaned about the horse's form. That seems more productive than calling BS.

[cj]

That's why I initially suggested that anyone that is curious or doubtful about whether the winners and other big performers could be profitable should begin tracking how they do relative to their prior races. Most people simply draw a line through the "lost rider" line and ignore it, but there could be some incremental information gleaned about the horse's form. That seems more productive than calling BS.

I followed it years ago, and it wasn't even close to profitable. Thus, I stopped following it.

[classhandicapper]

I followed it years ago, and it wasn't even close to profitable. Thus, I stopped following it.

Did the ones that outperformed their PPs outperform their PPs subsequently?

Many of these horses are going to be bet properly off their prior form. But if the horse looked like a dog with fleas coming into the race and won riderless, that subgroup might be interesting.

[cj]

Did the ones that outperformed their PPs outperform their PPs subsequently?

Many of these horses are going to be bet properly off their prior form. But if the horse looked like a dog with fleas coming into the race and won riderless, that subgroup might be interesting.

I'm not going to pretend to remember everything, but the angle was a dead end. I'm not in the habit of continuing time consuming tasks that prove fruitless. I tested it for close to three years at all East Coast tracks, that I remember. It was in the 90s and involved clipping charts and watching replays.

[the little guy]

Did the ones that outperformed their PPs outperform their PPs subsequently?

Many of these horses are going to be bet properly off their prior form. But if the horse looked like a dog with fleas coming into the race and won riderless, that subgroup might be interesting.


Which is one of the main reasons the original claim is such obvious BS.

[devilsbag]

There's only one way to describe that kind of score on a Frank Wright horse...Nice Catch.

[classhandicapper]

Which is one of the main reasons the original claim is such obvious BS.

I would have guessed that playing all of them would be unprofitable, but I wouldn't be shocked if there are subgroups that are profitable. I simply don't know. I'm still pissed off I never thought of looking at it. ;)

[classhandicapper]

There's only one way to describe that kind of score on a Frank Wright horse...Nice Catch.

In case you didn't think about this, the problem is that two of my biggest scores came when Frank Wright was training! That's a long time ago. One might ask themselves "What have you done for me lately". :rolleyes:

The answer is that I'm lazier and less reckless than I was in those days and despite being a way better handicapper, IMO the game is massively more difficult. I'm also not very geared emotionally to things like pick 6s etc... So I don't play them. I keep telling myself I'm due. :lol:

[cj]

I would have guessed that playing all of them would be unprofitable, but I wouldn't be shocked if there are subgroups that are profitable. I simply don't know. I'm still pissed off I never thought of looking at it. ;)

Honestly, you shouldn't be. It was a waste of time. I had them broken down by performance and odds the day they lost the rider, the day they returned, and combinations of both. It wasn't profitable overall, and it wasn't profitable by any particular odds group. I don't remember any returning to win at big odds when I tracked it, none above 8 to 1 or so.

I had better luck tracking "eased" horses than the above types.

[Valuist]

While weight is about the last factor I would normally consider, when a horse gets a 115 pound break in the weights, its pretty substantial.

Actually, I've seen quite a few loose horses win for this very reason. I guess its really about when they dumped the rider. If its right at the start and the horse doesn't stumble, they SHOULD finish in front. But I don't think I've ever seen one bolt to the extreme outside fence and then finish that close (no Broad Brush and Sir Ray don't count).

One thing I noticed about the Aqu runner the other day was he seemed to almost run up on heels a bit in the stretch and had the "smarts" to angle outside the tiring horse.

Not surprised these types aren't profitable. Bad manner types usually find new ways to lose.

[devilsbag]

In case you didn't think about this, the problem is that two of my biggest scores came when Frank Wright was training!

I haven't cashed a ticket since sometime around the time they stopped padlocking the pay phones during live racing, so don't feel so bad. :)

"Nice Catch" was my attempt at a very obscure joke...that was the name of a stakes winning sprinter that Frank Wright trained.

Back on topic of the off topic, the only major "lost rider" incident I can think of was Precisionist, who wound up riderless and in front of the field at Hollywood, but came back and lost his next start at Belmont. However, that is hardly a representative sample.

[cj]

Is it safe to say a bunch of PA handicappers are laying low and going to score out on this horse? I'd love to hear some pre-race thoughts on him today.

[pandy]

He gets a very tough spot, moving up in class and the extreme outside post going a mile in a race that starts near the turn. But, I'm still betting if the odds are right. I think he'll be a longshot, his figures are awful.

[cj]

He gets a very tough spot, moving up in class and the extreme outside post going a mile in a race that starts near the turn. But, I'm still betting if the odds are right. I think he'll be a longshot, his figures are awful.

He'll be a huge price. Isn't that the point? I don't think I'd bet him at 1,000 to 1 based on his PPs. I don't think the "loose" race means anything, but we'll see.

[PhantomOnTour]

He'll be a huge price. Isn't that the point? I don't think I'd bet him at 1,000 to 1 based on his PPs. I don't think the "loose" race means anything, but we'll see.
The race itself is pretty low class and I won't be playing it. The 2 horses I like are the ML choices...the :5: and :7: with the latter being my top choice. You can bet I will be watching though. If Greeley's Law wins this thread will be an interesting read; that's for sure.

[pandy]

Tap Attack looks tough here.

[PhantomOnTour]

Greeley's Law opens at 3-1

[the little guy]

Tap Attack looks tough here.

Third base is open....why not mention the second choice, One Way to Rock, could wire the field?

[picojim]

ran 2nd again :)

[PhantomOnTour]

At least he got out of the gate cleanly today, unlike most of his starts. Nice effort considering the wide trip...went off around 6-1.

[pandy]

I actually did pretty good on this race, the exacta/trifecta came out exactly the way I gave it to my customers and I had the exacta and the trifecta multiple times. Greeley runs a lot better without a jockey though.

[pandy]

Third base is open....why not mention the second choice, One Way to Rock, could wire the field?

I don't like horses stretching out to two turns in only 2nd career start on dirt, not enough foundation, but I did use the horse for show in trifecta.

[the little guy]

I don't like horses stretching out to two turns in only 2nd career start on dirt, not enough foundation, but I did use the horse for show in trifecta.


And Pandy puts the cherry on top!

[pandy]

This added quite a bit to my huge positive ROI on loose horse angle.

[the little guy]

This added quite a bit to my huge positive ROI on loose horse angle.


If there was any justice in the world, when you hit send on this post, a giant pie flew out of your computer screen and slammed into your face.

[classhandicapper]

I didn't play the race, but the horse clearly outran its PPs based on its races prior to the lost rider race. It also finished 2nd at 10-1, which filled out a nice exacta with the horse I made the most likely winner of the race otherwise (no big deal there).

I'm going to assume that a flat bet on all horses like this will not produce a profit because if the horse has a long race record, too much will be revealed in the PPs of its prior races. However, if there are sub groups of horses like this that do possess value, this was probably the perfect example of it.

It was a lightly raced horse with mediocre PPs that potentially showed a lot more in the lost rider race than at any time before that and many people would not and did not recognize it despite it getting discussed on TV.

[eastie]

It was the Day Affirmed got disqualified in the Travers. It was the 1st race. Tilt Up beat Beat Inflation ( a VERY good Hooper older horse ) by a head in the second race. The double paid $200 ( First Queen was 25:1 ). It was the first of the Frank Wright horses I bet....but I didn't miss any of the others. Via Appia paid $48. That was a VERY memorable day.

Military Order was during my winter break from College. I remember listening to the call in my parent's living room ( there was a radio station from Scenectady, 3WWD, that used to play the replays right after the race ). It was a crushing blow.


i remember that day....tilt up had blown out in 33 1/5 two days before. he may have turned out a better hoss if he hadn't run into Affirmed and Alydar when he was a 2 year old. He was a fast working hoss for sure.

[BombsAway Bob]

Could you give us some examples please?
this question wasn't directed to me, but i added a horse in Sept. that i believe threw his jock in PParade or at the gate & ran the rail the entire trip. Being a
FTS, i was impressed he didn't go back the barn. Name? TAPIZAR.
Here's my current DRF Horsewatch List, for better or worse-

Horse Name-- Date Created -------- Notes
Citifest -- 08/09/2010-- 6YO NY Bred likes SPA- OTB 8/9/10 Turf closer
Gold Xchange -- 06/30/2010-- Woodbine Md.fast closer- 2nd@26/1 on 6/30
In Her Hey Day -- 12/04/2010-- added 12/4/10 - McL closer, shit ride. fills tri/super
Loopy de Loop -- 11/08/2010-- F.Lakes-Speed,ultimate N2L hanger late. added 11/8/10
Nosegay -- 07/10/2010-- Debut Fri.night,7/9/10 @Holly. closed for 5th @ 19/1
Tapizar -- 09/19/2010-- 9/19/10- threw jock, hugged rail, knows what to do!
Valid Message -- 01/03/2011-- added 1/3/11 -FG Turfer well liked by Marcus Hersh
---

[Dahoss9698]

this question wasn't directed to me, but i added a horse in Sept. that i believe threw his jock in PParade or at the gate & ran the rail the entire trip. Being a
FTS, i was impressed he didn't go back the barn. Name? TAPIZAR.
Here's my current DRF Horsewatch List, for better or worse-

Horse Name-- Date Created -------- Notes
Citifest -- 08/09/2010-- 6YO NY Bred likes SPA- OTB 8/9/10 Turf closer
Gold Xchange -- 06/30/2010-- Woodbine Md.fast closer- 2nd@26/1 on 6/30
In Her Hey Day -- 12/04/2010-- added 12/4/10 - McL closer, shit ride. fills tri/super
Loopy de Loop -- 11/08/2010-- F.Lakes-Speed,ultimate N2L hanger late. added 11/8/10
Nosegay -- 07/10/2010-- Debut Fri.night,7/9/10 @Holly. closed for 5th @ 19/1
Tapizar -- 09/19/2010-- 9/19/10- threw jock, hugged rail, knows what to do!
Valid Message -- 01/03/2011-- added 1/3/11 -FG Turfer well liked by Marcus Hersh
---

You're right that Tapizar did throw the jock at the start and he put in a freaky run that day. But it was his 2nd career start and he finished 4th in his next race after throwing the jock. He did romp in his next start after that though and as I have mentioned before, I think he's real good.