Dave Schwartz is Excited Again! NewPace is Coming [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Dave Schwartz

01-09-2011, 02:54 PM

Yes, I am!
Early or Late: Unlocking the Mystery of Pace.

You may remember a couple of months ago when I spoke of a new approach to pace that I had been working which I was calling (logically) NewPace.

I am working on what I call "New Pace." Like the form stuff it is very new. However, unlike the form stuff, it had its origins in Jim Cramer's work.

Link to original post (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1002286&postcount=16)

I really can't [comment on how it works]. It is too premature. I will just say that it is very different than what could be called "Sartinian Pace."

I am probably 6 months away from adding the one missing ingredient. Still searching for it.

Sartinian pace was founded on the principle of EP-SP-W. Modeling of these and other factors is considered a cornerstone of pace handicapping today.

I have discovered that the absolute least important thing in pace handicapping is EP. It is so insignificant that it can be ignored completely.

I think you will agree that this is a provocative statement.

If I can back that up with proof (I can but not until the rest is complete) then I'd call this important. Wouldn't you?

As I have said, I am missing one key ingredient... an element of predictability. I can do it in my software to about 80% of my satisfaction level but it is very complicated. It is no where near ready for the kind of break through technologies I release.

The next step was for me to suggest a private viewing of what I was working on with several trusted members of this forum:

This stuff is so obvious when you see it that you will:

1. First, say, "That can't be so."
2. Second, say, "Wow! That's unbelievable."

In fact, let's just move on with this... I hereby officially invite Fox, Tom and Max and PA to a short (like 15 minute) online meeting to look at this stuff.

Then we had our meeting - which went more like an hour. A description of that meeting can be found in this (incorrectly titled) thread: Mystery of Form (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1004545&posted=1#post1004545)

The first post from that thread:
All,
Tonight, I had the pleasure of attending an interesting, thought provoking seminar presented by Dave Schwartz. Without revealing the topic, that will be presented in it's entirety at a later date, I can only tell you that what Dave has found in his research will certainly delete one of the handicapping's "Sacred Cows." Being of the mind set to utilize his new found information, Dave is working on how to use that information in one's handicapping approach. It should be quite interesting to say the least!!
We were assured that this is not a ploy to buy HSH but to be able to use
his new found nugget in one's handicapping no matter what approach you are using. More information will be forthcoming!!!
Maxspa

Dave Schwartz

01-09-2011, 03:16 PM

So, here we are, about 60 days later and I have found that "missing ingredient!"

The missing ingredient I spoke of...
The "missing ingredient" that I was referring to was a method for someone without any pace figures in front of them to determine who was likely to go to the front today with a high degree of certainty.

Ever agonized over which paceline to select for a horse?
Just so that we are clear - THERE IS NO PACELINE SELECTION NECESSARY to use NewPace. It will, however, integrate nicely with your other pace approach if you have one. I'll even show you how to do it.

Ever struggled with contender selection?
NewPace does not use a "contender selection process, per se. Instead, the process guides you through:

Who is going to the front
Which of those front runners are likely to quit
Which horses will be charging at them coming down the lane

Ever struggled with who you should finally bet?
NewPace includes several powerful wagering strategies for making your final wagering decision.

Stay tuned for more information about release dates, prices, etc.

Greyfox

01-09-2011, 03:27 PM

Ever struggled with contender selection?
NewPace does not use a "contender selection process, per se. Instead, the process guides you through:

Who is going to the front
Which of those front runners are likely to quit
Which horses will be charging at them coming down the lane

.

The late William L. Scott ( a pen name) had a method wherein you could answer those questions without pace line selection. He published it in his book
Total Victory at the Track. However, it was very laborious.

Tom

01-09-2011, 04:26 PM

This one will be worth the wait.
I have already integrated nuggets of it from our preview and I am very happy with the results. I can definitely separate the early horses a lot more often than before, using no early pace numbers at all, and I can predict when a previously obvious pace duel will not materialize more often than before.

Charlie D

01-10-2011, 07:08 AM

The missing ingredient I spoke of...
The "missing ingredient" that I was referring to was a method for someone without any pace figures in front of them to determine who was likely to go to the front today with a high degree of certainty.

Bradshaws Match Up does this

Ever agonized over which paceline to select for a horse?
Just so that we are clear - THERE IS NO PACELINE SELECTION NECESSARY to use NewPace. It will, however, integrate nicely with your other pace approach if you have one. I'll even show you how to do it.

There is no Pace line selection necessary in Bradshaws Match Up, in fact, he tells you to "look at ALL lines"

Ever struggled with contender selection?
NewPace does not use a "contender selection process, per se. Instead, the process guides you through:

Who is going to the front
Which of those front runners are likely to quit
Which horses will be charging at them coming down the lane

This methodology is used in Sartin, Brohamer, Bradshaw etc methodologys

Ever struggled with who you should finally bet?
NewPace includes several powerful wagering strategies for making your final wagering decision.

Not quite sure what you mean here, but if you follow the instructions given by those previously mentioned your final wagering decisions are sorted.

So, considering this, i'd conclude your methodolgy is not really NEW, but just a recipe being mixed differently, just like loads of others out there.

Tom

01-10-2011, 07:33 AM

It is new.

Charlie D

01-10-2011, 07:43 AM

Don't think i have made any false statements in my last post, so what i stated stands.

Tom

01-10-2011, 09:20 AM

Considering you know nothing of what he is doing, I'll buy that.

Charlie D

01-10-2011, 10:59 AM

Considering you know nothing of what he is doing, I'll buy that.

Considering i read the posts by Dave i know a bit more than nothing

I may not be as well eductated as some, but i can actually tell the difference between a cow and a pig and if that were the case here i would say so instead of stating what i did earlier.

Now, thats the end of this particular game of ping pong for me and i wish you and Dave all the best in your endenvours.

Gapfire

01-10-2011, 11:06 AM

i wish you and Dave all the best in your endenvours.

:lol:

Seriously though, I think this sounds like it should be a very interesting product.

Tom

01-10-2011, 11:15 AM

It is. Despite rumors to the contrary.

mrroyboy

01-10-2011, 11:43 AM

Hope it's cheaper than most of Dave's other products.

Tom

01-10-2011, 12:51 PM

You get what you pay for.
If you win using it, it is free.

teddy

01-10-2011, 01:27 PM

Don't think i have made any false statements in my last post, so what i stated stands.

I cant wait to see the posted picks!

teddy

01-10-2011, 01:30 PM

[QUOTE=Charlie D]Considering i read the posts by Dave i know a bit more than nothing

I may not be as well eductated as some, but i can actually tell the difference between a cow and a pig and if that were the case here i would say so instead of stating what i did earlier.

Now, thats the end of this particular game of ping pong for me and i wish you and Dave all the best in your endenvours.[/QUOTE

omg, I was thinking the same thing...

Sinner369

01-10-2011, 02:31 PM

I have to side with Tom on this one..........if Tom says it is new then it must be something to look forward to............

I bought Dave Schwarz's Form Factor (Improve or Decline) and am completely
happy with it............my dealings with Dave and his wife (Beth) were straight and up front.............I would have no problem buying from Dave again........

Sinner

CBedo

01-11-2011, 02:21 AM

I am an expert on knowing nothing, but even if you do know lots, why not keep an open mind and wait until Dave discloses a little more before crapping all over it?

It blows my mind over and over on this board (and I'm probably guilty sometimes as well inadvertently) that we have so many people willing to share their beliefs and research with regards to being a successful handicapper, BUT also have so many people who just assume they know more and post their "all knowing" ways and opinions beating down the work of others, and without (most of the time) providing any alternatives.

GameTheory

01-11-2011, 09:24 AM

thaskalos

01-11-2011, 10:27 PM

Pace handicapping is my obsession...and I, personally, can't wait to find out what Dave has to say on the subject.

plainolebill

01-11-2011, 11:33 PM

I'm looking forward to it also.

cato

01-12-2011, 09:56 AM

me too -- what's the launch date?

Dave Schwartz

01-12-2011, 10:32 AM

The new product is called NewPace: Unlocking the Mystery of Pace.

Target release date is January 31, 2010.

The cost will be $77. The PA special price will be $54.77 until we release. This will be a downloadable product so there is no shipping. However, if you want a CD we'll send you one for only $9.

The product comes with a 45-day, no-questions asked return policy.

If you purchased Improve/Decline, we have all your ordering information. All you need to do is to send an email to me at DaveSchwReno@GMail.com to place an order or call the office at 775.853.1234.

Please note that we have new office hours: 9:15am to 4:30pm, Mon-Thu, and 9:15am to 11am on Fri. (We still answer the phone during other hours but these are our "posted" hours.)

Hopefully we will finally have our store going next month and all of this will become much easier.

If you have pre-order questions, I encourage you to post them here but understand my ability to answer "how does it work" will be very inhibited.

The first 25 to order will receive a special deal.

Dave Schwartz

01-12-2011, 12:28 PM

The "Special Deal" is $47.

They are going fast.

Dave Schwartz

01-12-2011, 04:38 PM

RaceBookJoe

01-12-2011, 04:49 PM

The response to this offer has been tremendous. Thank you.

Since the "first 25" offer is long completed, I am going to extend the offer to anyone all orders before 5pm tomorrow (pacific).

Remember - $47 until tomorrow at 5pm!

Maybe i missed it, but is this a book where i can learn and do with a drf, or a software program?? Thanks rbj

Dave Schwartz

01-12-2011, 04:52 PM

No software necessary. Daily Racing Form Past Performances (or others) will work fine.

Pace Cap'n

01-12-2011, 07:54 PM

Paypal?

Dave Schwartz

01-12-2011, 07:58 PM

Yes. I will PM you with the account.

Dave Schwartz

01-13-2011, 05:50 PM

Just a reminder: Our $47 special offer for NewPace ends at 5pm (pacific time) today. That is just two hours from now!

Remember it comes with a 45-day no questions asked return policy.

llegend39

01-14-2011, 06:46 AM

Maybe i missed it, but is this a book where i can learn and do with a drf, or a software program?? Thanks rbj

Just for info purposes I was told THIS ISN'T A BOOK ,rather a video.

Dave Schwartz

01-14-2011, 11:59 AM

Just for info purposes I was told THIS ISN'T A BOOK ,rather a video.

That is correct.

Many of the products I will produce in the next year are in the form of video seminars, usually lasting from 90 minutes to 3 hours, often with some worksheets or other materials.

Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

Horsepicker

01-18-2011, 02:01 PM

What were the in the trenches FIELD STATS, FIELD TESTS and results?

What is the Return on Investment vs race's that where bet?

What were considered playable races per card to bet?

What is the average win percentage per card?

How many races were played , won AND lost to come up with these numbers deemed to be successful enough to sell the method as viable..., 40, 200, 500 ?

Test results ,please, surprised no one has or is asking this.

The scientific in-the-field results coupled with the new theory will extract better questions, and better revealing answers.

Horsepicker

Tom

01-18-2011, 02:22 PM

Test results ,please, surprised no one has or is asking this.

After his last release, we are skeptical of him.
And there is a return policy if you are.

We're not buying a black box.

Horsepicker

01-18-2011, 03:55 PM

Just some field test results.

Like results from betting only 1st choice, or dutching 1st choice and 2nd choice, or betting top 3. wins and loses.

Test results plus theory can give purchaser better clarity as to measure the benefits/disadvantage as it relates to one's own personal handicapping and education.

Horsepicker

Dave Schwartz

01-18-2011, 04:48 PM

Horsepicker,

With all due respect, you are being unrealistic here.

I am not selling a promise of a lifetime of income for $47. If I were claiming such a thing, you'd have every right to be skeptical.

I produce good ideas; usable ideas; practical ideas.

My products will always be good ideas that you can add to your arsenal. They will be ideas that will probably improve your bottom line.

Becoming a winning player is a process of stacking two or three good ideas on top of one another to create enough incremental improvement in your bottom line that you eventually cross over into profitability.

My point: Becoming a winning player is NOT simply adding up the numbers and saying this single idea is all I need.

An Illustration
Last week I had a conversation with one of my users who has consistently told me he is getting a high rate of profit on his wagers, as well as a high hit rate. Note that he is a multi-horse win bettor, playing one or two horses for profit and one for hedge in each race.

We spoke for about an hour at first, followed by some emails where he answered my questions.

By the end of our exchanges I had added a new tool to my arsenal that has changed my game.

The biggest thing I learned from him was that once per month he studies the last several months of his play. Not just the wagers he makes but every race he handicaps. In other words, at the beginning of each month he eliminates the races he does poorly in for the coming month. I believe this is the secret to his success.

Now, imagine if I packaged this idea up and sold it as one of my good ideas. What would the ROI be? What would the hit rate be?

Those questions cannot be answered yet the idea still has value.

Consider what Tom said - or rather MEANT to say -

After his last release, we are skeptical of him.
And there is a return policy if you are.

We're not buying a black box.

LOL - I believe he meant "... we are NOT skeptical of him."

And, like he said, there IS a return policy. That policy is 45 days, no questions asked. Okay, we might ask, "Why did you return it?" but the answer (or lack thereof) will not impact the refund.

Of course, the reality is that if your expectation is that any system/approach/method you purchase must lead you to riches, well... you will probably be disappointed with everything you ever purchase from everyone. In that case, you should be making all your own discoveries.

But I can promise you this - "Buyer Beware" is not a warning that needs to be added to my products.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: Horsepicker, I hope you decide to try this product and enjoy it. The next best thing for both of us would be for you to try it and send it back.

Horsepicker

01-18-2011, 05:35 PM

With all due respect, you are being unrealistic here.

I like ideas, theories, their motivators and creativity to start in new directions.

But if someone is going to pay simply for theorectical ideas, I am not used to that as is your other customers.

I can have an idea about a BETTER bullet-proof vest for Police Officers.

But guess what happens when I don't test it rigorously or test it at all?

Dead Cops.

Ideas may seem plausible, but without test in the real world, reality, something one can touch and see , I am not comprehending this.

Ideas based on wishful thinking, hope, positive thinking, something one HOPES to happen ?

Are you selling a thesis?

No scientist , no matter how crazy or genius his ideas are can ever be taken seriously without some field test, even if its on paper or statistical evidence.

Pharmaceutical companies have trials.

The 99 cent store shows some products that were good ideas, maybe to the inventor, but not to many others.

Even excluding actual betting, again, even PAPER stats are better than nothing

How can one measure the viability of anything without it being used at all?

Horsepicker

GameTheory

01-18-2011, 05:54 PM

I like ideas, theories, their motivators and creativity to start in new directions.

But if someone is going to pay simply for theorectical ideas, I am not used to that as is your other customers.

I can have an idea about a BETTER bullet-proof vest for Police Officers.

But guess what happens when I don't test it rigorously or test it at all?

Dead Cops.

Ideas may seem plausible, but without test in the real world, reality, something one can touch and see , I am not comprehending this.

Ideas based on wishful thinking, hope, positive thinking, something one HOPES to happen ?

Are you selling a thesis?

No scientist , no matter how crazy or genius his ideas are can ever be taken seriously without some field test, even if its on paper or statistical evidence.

Pharmaceutical companies have trials.

The 99 cent store shows some products that were good ideas, maybe to the inventor, but not to many others.

Even excluding actual betting, again, even PAPER stats are better than nothing

How can one measure the viability of anything without it being used at all?

HorsepickerHe didn't say he didn't do tests, just not the tests you want (top horse winners etc.). It is about who is going to the front and who is not, who will come running late etc. I'm sure he tested those assertions. They just don't map directly to ranking horses for winning chances because it is meant to be incorporated into an overall approach, not be the whole approach. (What would you say to a person that demanded to know which cops wearing your new vest were going to make detective?)

thaskalos

01-18-2011, 05:56 PM

I like ideas, theories, their motivators and creativity to start in new directions.

But if someone is going to pay simply for theorectical ideas, I am not used to that as is your other customers.

I can have an idea about a BETTER bullet-proof vest for Police Officers.

But guess what happens when I don't test it rigorously or test it at all?

Dead Cops.

Ideas may seem plausible, but without test in the real world, reality, something one can touch and see , I am not comprehending this.

Ideas based on wishful thinking, hope, positive thinking, something one HOPES to happen ?

Are you selling a thesis?

No scientist , no matter how crazy or genius his ideas are can ever be taken seriously without some field test, even if its on paper or statistical evidence.

Pharmaceutical companies have trials.

The 99 cent store shows some products that were good ideas, maybe to the inventor, but not to many others.

Even excluding actual betting, again, even PAPER stats are better than nothing

How can one measure the viability of anything without it being used at all?

HorsepickerHorsepicker,

I may have just the thing for you...something that you might be more used to.

I just received information on the latest offering from renowned horse racing mavin Dan Pope.

After much "field testing", he also claims to have unravelled the mysteries of pace...and his "proof" is impressive to say the least.

600 plays at 6 different racetracks...with his win bets hitting at a 43% clip...while returning $1.78 for every dollar wagered.

And - as if that is not enough - there are 7 win plays a day, per track.

Send me a PM if you are interested...and I will gladly forward the information to you.

Horsepicker

01-18-2011, 07:01 PM

He didn't say he didn't do tests, just not the tests you want (top horse winners etc.). It is about who is going to the front and who is not, who will come running late etc. I'm sure he tested those assertions. They just don't map directly to ranking horses for winning chances because it is meant to be incorporated into an overall approach, not be the whole approach.

Even that would be something to look at and measure, because if you are selling something, there has to be some basis for the sell.

For instance, lets say he showed 100 races in which 30%,50%,75% of the horses his method says would take the lead or press or run late actually do so in a certain percentage of races, whether its his top 1,2, or 3 or whatever in each running style.

NOW, thats something to LOOK at and can make a reasonable assessment to ones own personal taste of whether to purchase or not, being usable or not.

One can look at any post here and elsewhere to find "ideas".

If they can find niche customers that simply buy ideas, maybe they should package them up and sell also, especially if one can find satisfied customers in that niche, good for those who can do that business and have found that market.

Even the old E.O. Phillips racing news letter gave some results , like 20 or so races, of a few methods when they decided on its rating.

Sure, buyer beware, anyone can make claims, but its something to look at.

Then one can decide in what context it is usable and viable for them.

If a new gun was invented that actually projected the bullet every five pulls of the trigger, at least one knows what they have and can determine to either improve it, buy it, use it to hammer nails, stay away or whatever, but you got to know what it can do.

To invent a gun and not at least test in a lab or know what it will do does not seem logical.

Horsepicker

Dave Schwartz

01-18-2011, 07:11 PM

Horsepicker,

Here is the point and bottom line: When someone purchases a product like this THEY will do the testing. THEY have to do the testing because it has to fit into THEIR handicapping.

I stake my reputation - and I do have a reputation - that the ideas I produce will be good ones. They aren't for everyone.

To be honest, if I run a 5,000 race test it would take me way longer to produce and the price would need to be about $800 a copy. If I quoted the results from a 100 race test you would say that was insignificant (and so would I).

Look, I get where you are coming from. This product - and my approach to developing products - does not work for you. That is fine. Don't purchase it.

I find it interesting that the biggest naysayers to this product - and there have been several - are people who have no real knowledge of the product. If the product turns out to be without value, then two things will happen: first the purchasers will return the product by the dozen and, second, there will be lots of negative feedback from purchasers right here.

How about keeping an open mind until the product is at least released?

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

GameTheory

01-18-2011, 07:16 PM

To invent a gun and not at least test in a lab or know what it will do does not seem logical.Again, the only one saying that no tests were done is you. You wanted "picks", presumably based solely on this approach. It was explained to you why there are no picks and why your question is misguided. Then without missing a beat you move the goalposts to a totally different criterion -- implying that no tests were done whatsoever. There is no basis to say that. All while being told repeatedly you can have the entire method risk-free and you can do all the tests you want. Seems like you are just being difficult for the sake of being difficult...

dansan

01-18-2011, 10:26 PM

dave how about doing somthing on longshots and or angles or are you keeping those for yourself :lol:

Dave Schwartz

01-18-2011, 10:29 PM

I always wanted to research playing "horizontally" (i.e. angles). Actually started to about 13-14 years ago but did not finish with it.

Longshots - this pace product does address plenty of those. LOL - while I was testing I actually hit a $200-something horse. Blew my mind.

dansan

01-18-2011, 10:34 PM

thats huge I had a $150 sunday from parx other horses couldnt keep up whith his pace

Horsepicker

01-18-2011, 11:48 PM

Again, the only one saying that no tests were done is you. You wanted "picks", presumably based solely on this approach. It was explained to you why there are no picks and why your question is misguided. Then without missing a beat you move the goalposts to a totally different criterion -- implying that no tests were done whatsoever. There is no basis to say that. All while being told repeatedly you can have the entire method risk-free and you can do all the tests you want. Seems like you are just being difficult for the sake of being difficult...

I am not assuming anything. If some result came about, just simply asking "how 'bout cha sharing them? That's being difficult?

To sell something is to imply viability.

Just simply asking the basis of the implied viability however much or to what context it is applicable.

Simply to buy " because I say it's viable, that's why " is odd , and I think YOU are being difficult, look:

When you go buy a car, salesman gives you stats, mileage, type of gasoline required, added features options, performance and is supposedly there to answer any questions BEFORE purchase..,

When you buy any serious machinery or equiptment, they give you stats, the voltage needed, amps it pulls, safety requirements, what parts are replaceable if applicable, etc.,

If that is your definition of being difficult, then I guess you are right.

I find it interesting that the biggest naysayers to this product - and there have been several - are people who have no real knowledge of the product. If the product turns out to be without value, then two things will happen: first the purchasers will return the product by the dozen and, second, there will be lots of negative feedback from purchasers right here.

How about keeping an open mind until the product is at least released?

I will keep an open mind, but I am not a naysayer because, so far, all that has been revealed , even as an advertisement, is the price and that it will help with pace, thats it.

You are correct when you say I have no real knowledge of the product, except what the price will be and that it has to do with pace/running styles.

All I can say is you got a hell of a niche of customers and business simply to sell ideas, especially concerning paramutual investment, the customer base that are loyal to you are satisfied with the criterion of your products, I suppose , so if you are satisfying the majority of what your customers want, that is all that counts....., the criteria is kinda strange to me though, in THIS field....,buy on faith, maybe you should have also been a politician or pastor.

I'll wait and see for reviews, hopefully , there will be some measure of objectivity and healthy balance of feedback to pick from and make a best guess decision.

Horsepicker

CBedo

01-19-2011, 04:01 AM

So what Horsespicker is saying is that he needs Dave to "hawk" his stuff more, throw out some stats (marketing driven) and then he will believe and buy it? The only reason anyone give you information is to SELL you.

Would you rather have the car salesman quote you mileage and features that are inflated and try to upsell you extra features you don't need (with not much of a return policy by the way, lol) or just have the product available with a full money back guarantee with plenty of time to test it and let it stand on it's own, and not just overall for everyone, but does it stand on it's own in your own handicapping thinking and methodology?

I'll take substance over marketing glitz anytime, and if word of mouth on this board isn't enough to pique your interest, well I don't know what to tell you.

Dave Schwartz

01-19-2011, 10:46 AM

Chris,

You are very astute. Thank you.

You have about perfectly summed up why I don't do as Horsepicker has requested.

There is also one other reason: If I come up with a new idea and it really appears to have merit, it must come with at least one or two "switches."

That is, there cannot be just a single way to use it. If there was just one way, then everyone would wind up on the same horse and it would only work for the first three or four guys.

There has to be at least one place where the user can mix in his own... flavor.

Note that it receives "merit" when it passes my testing.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Red Knave

01-19-2011, 12:30 PM

If that is your definition of being difficult, then I guess you are right.
It's one definition.

I'll wait and see for reviews, hopefully , there will be some measure of objectivity and healthy balance of feedback to pick from and make a best guess decision.
You write and ask questions like a lot of people in this game. You need to have someone else take responsibility for you. I prefer to look at the ideas of others and determine their value on my own.

I'll also tell you that you won't hear anything from me as far as reviews or feedback.

As Dave says, he does have a reputation, and it's a good one.

traveler

01-19-2011, 02:10 PM

Horsepicker - and anyone else reading this thread not familiar with Dave.
Below are my results thru 1/16 using Daves HSH software. Thats an 80% ROI.

# of Bets Win % $1 ROI
28 42.86% +0.80

I can't sustain that, I know that, but I wouldn't have those results without his software/numbers and ideas he has provided over the years.
I am a recreational, on again-off again player and have been for a number of years and am profitable when I play. I will guarantee you that nobody using HSH uses my approach or even the same handicapping factors and therefore wouldn't get the same results.

When I signed up with HDW to download data again in January, an hour later Dave,who had just spoken to Ron Tiller, found out I was downloading again and called me at home to welcome me back and tell me what some of his new ideas were. I haven't always agreed with Dave but he is very helpful and honest.

I'd suggest anyone the least bit interested order it, you have no concern over getting your refund if requested. Dave - I'm not sure you even know who this is other than from the story I recounted - it's "L.A." Not shilling, just the facts.

Dave Schwartz

01-30-2011, 03:47 PM

As some of you may have noted from a previous thread, I am having a problem properly rendering video on my systems. As such, it has put me slightly behind in release of my new video seminar, NewPace.

I would expect to have the problem solved tomorrow but it will likely be the end of the coming week before I can release it.

Sorry for the small delay but it will all be worth it in the end.

Please note that we do not normally charge credit cards, etc. until we are ready to release. It is likely that charging will begin on Thursday.

Since we are going to be a little late in delivery, I'd like to extend the $47 PA Special offer. Anyone who orders this week will receive the $47 price rather than the $77 price.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Sly7449

01-31-2011, 09:42 AM

Horsepicker,

You may be interested in this guy's stuff: Only $4.99

http://cgi.ebay.com/Finger-Suspicion-1954-DAVE-SCHWARTZ-Sheet-Music-/360278536291?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item53e2463063

Dave Schwartz

01-31-2011, 10:24 AM

LOL - Yes, I guess I wrote that when I was three.

Tom

01-31-2011, 11:34 AM

Was that your Trainer guide for Finger Lakes? :D

Sinner369

01-31-2011, 05:41 PM

Dave, I knew you were old and experienced but not that old..................???

(kidding)..........he, he, he......

Dave Schwartz

01-31-2011, 06:53 PM

Actually, I AM old. Just turned 60. But, unless, I am Mozart, it is unlikely that I wrote that music.

Mike A

02-02-2011, 12:25 AM

Dave, we know you're doing your best....things happen...we're with ya!

Dave Schwartz

02-04-2011, 09:17 PM

I am putting the finishing touches on the NewPace product - actually titled, Early or Late: Unlocking the Mystery of Pace."

Boys and girls, I need to tell you that this is the finest work I have ever done. This stuff is so good that I fear I may have to start a cult of some kind.

Okay, listen to this...
You've just handicapped a race. There are 3 or 4 obvious contenders. You've got the race dialed in, playing 2 horses. You are dead sure that one of your horses is going to win. They run around the track together on the lead, looking great, only to get beat at the wire by a $56 horse that comes out of the clouds.

After the race is over, you look at the winner trying to figure out where you went wrong. No matter how hard you try, you just cannot figure out a way to get him into your top 5.

With NewPace you'll have this $56 horse about half of the time.

Here's another one.
You have a race with lots of early speed types. You keep a model and the model says "sustained wins." You bet two horses, one who is a strong early pace stalker and the other that has the big late run. In the early part of the race one of the front runners shakes loose for an early lead an never looks back. Your late runners put in a bid but they're just too late. The winner pays $15.

Next race. Same precise scenario but this time the late horses fly past the early horses and battle to the wire. Winner pays $28.

With NewPace you will probably have this winner 8 times out of 10.

One more.
There is a "Quirin 8-point horse" that figures to go to the front with no competition. You single him at 2/1. The race runs in such a slow pace that all the closers are lined up just behind him heading for home. Your goose is cooked in the lane because he didn't go out on a 10-length lead. Winner pays $9.00.

With NewPace you will probably have this winner 9 times out of 10.

My favorite.
You have 4 contenders, 2/1, 5/2, 8/1, 12/1. You decide on 2/1 and 5/2 only to get beaten by the 8/1.

Next race. You have 4 contenders, 9/5, 2/1, 12/1, 16/1. You play the 8/1 and the 12/1 only to get beaten by the 9/5 in an easy win.

With NewPace you will get the first one about 8.5 times out of 10. Because our approach tries to find longer priced horses, you will only get the 9/5 shot about 65% of the time when he wins.

NewPace (or "Early or Late" as it has ultimately been titled) addresses all these issues. Ever had a hard time deciding between the EARLY and the EARLY-PRESSER in a race that just screams early? Well, NewPace will eliminate the need to agonize over that.

Okay, so this is my commercial. I invite you to TRY it. You've got 45-days to decide if it provided you with enough new and practical ideas to justify the $47. If it isn't for you, just let us know and we'll cheerfully refund your money.

You have nothing to lose.

Remember - I am not promising you a living at the races. I am promising you a SYSTEM that will flat kick ass and take names. If you're not a "system" kind of player, then I promise you that you will get AT LEAST THREE really good ideas THAT YOU HAVE NEVER HEARD BEFORE from this seminar.

Again, you have nothing to lose.

Dave

Sinner369

02-05-2011, 03:09 AM

Dave I am looking forward to seeing and using NewPace...........you sure sound confidence with the examples you given............

I read most of the best selling books on handicapping so nothing would surprise me too much...........Hope you are right about NewPace........

Sinner

Sinner369

02-05-2011, 01:17 PM

Actually, I AM old. Just turned 60. But, unless, I am Mozart, it is unlikely that I wrote that music.

On a more serious note..........Horse Handicapping is the only Sport (?) I know that Experience counts (immersely)............not like other sports where you are always reading about the next rookie phenom!

Sinner

Dave Schwartz

02-05-2011, 02:19 PM

Sinner,

Truly you are correct. I think that the only thing that comes close to horse racing as an intellectual challenge is chess. They are certainly different - chess seems less infinite (although it is not for all practical purposes).

Perhaps sports bettors would argue that sports is just as complex. And perhaps so.

Dave

thaskalos

02-05-2011, 04:07 PM

On a more serious note..........Horse Handicapping is the only Sport (?) I know that Experience counts (immersely)............not like other sports where you are always reading about the next rookie phenom!

SinnerThere is experience...and then there is EXPERIENCE!

Some guys who claim to have 30 years experience really have 3 months experience...repeated 120 times.

Sinner369

02-05-2011, 08:10 PM

There is experience...and then there is EXPERIENCE!

Some guys who claim to have 30 years experience really have 3 months experience...repeated 120 times.

thaskalos.........true, true, true.............that's were the "intellectual" pursuit comes in.

reckless

02-06-2011, 09:24 AM

There is experience...and then there is EXPERIENCE!

Some guys who claim to have 30 years experience really have 3 months experience...repeated 120 times.

Very well put. I will always remember something I read many years ago about beating this great game of ours:

When you bet a horse race two things always happen--(1) you either win the bet or (2) you gain experience.

Dave Schwartz

02-06-2011, 11:46 AM

NewPace release update: All videos are finished, including the rendering! The only thing left is to shoot the "stand up" parts - the introduction and the closing and polish the tools a little.

Small piece of bad news. The crew that shoots this with me is busy doing Super Bowl stuff today. Earliest we can schedule is Monday AM. So, it will be a Monday evening release.

Dave Schwartz

02-07-2011, 04:40 PM

We are just starting our final "stand up" videos. I fully expect to ship tonight!

Dave Schwartz

02-07-2011, 09:27 PM

Final video rendering now - probably a couple of hours. Then the upload.

Definitely tonight!

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 03:12 AM

I am up rendering video and will stay at it until it is finished.

I am amazed at how long it takes to render HD video. I thought it would take 2 hours and it has (seriously) been 7 hours already.

CBedo

02-08-2011, 04:36 AM

I am up rendering video and will stay at it until it is finished.

I am amazed at how long it takes to render HD video. I thought it would take 2 hours and it has (seriously) been 7 hours already.Good luck the rest of the evening Dave. I'd stay up with you, but I have to go downtown Denver at 10:00 AM for a meeting (and it's snowing like crazy here).

Can't wait to check them out tomorrow afternoon (probably after a nap, ;) )

dlgreg

02-08-2011, 04:44 AM

I am amazed at how long it takes to render HD video. I thought it would take 2 hours and it has (seriously) been 7 hours already.

What are the specs of the computer you are using to render the video?

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 05:06 AM

That is obviously my problem. I have had a 4-month project of moving things to my new, multi-core machine. Guess I should have moved this app sooner.

In fact, now that I think of it, I should have used BOTH machines at once.

Last video is rendering in HD now and the others are uploading.

They should be ready to ship by the time I wake up.

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 05:08 AM

PS: Tell your wife, "Happy Birthday!"

dlgreg

02-08-2011, 05:41 AM

PS: Tell your wife, "Happy Birthday!"
Thanks, I'll relay your birthday wishes to her.

gm10

02-08-2011, 08:09 AM

CincyHorseplayer

02-08-2011, 09:28 AM

Red Knave

02-08-2011, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by gm10
Pardon my ignorance but what is so new about this?
Gotta agree,if you are this helpless you might have walked out of a bar and into a racetrack.I think the Kardashians need a tutorial like this though!
2 people on this board, that I respect, say it's new. That's enough for me.
At the price it can't help but be a worthwhile investment.

Also, I pitched this exact idea to the Kardashians and am waiting to hear back from their peeps.

:rolleyes:

Sinner369

02-08-2011, 12:12 PM

Guys, free country.........."if you think" you don't need this video......DON'T BUY IT.............!!!

Remember, Dave has a return policy if you do not like the product........

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 12:12 PM

Pardon my ignorance but what is so new about this?

Gotta agree,if you are this helpless you might have walked out of a bar and into a racetrack.I think the Kardashians need a tutorial like this though!

Cincy an GM10,

How many pace handicappers are walking around using no pacelines, no pace ratings, no Quirin ES points, selecting no contenders, and still truly doing pace handicapping?

Oh, and we also IGNORE the EP call.

But guys, I completely understand. You've got it dialed in and I congratulate you.

However, if you ever decide that you want to learn something new - and I assure you it is NEW, ORIGINAL and MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE - just let me know. In fact, I am going to set aside one electronic copy for each one of you right now, so that we don't run out,, just in case you ever change your mind.

Dave

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 12:20 PM

The last video is now uploading and I will be sending emails shortly!

Time is getting near!

(And I am still taking orders at the $47 price!)

CincyHorseplayer

02-08-2011, 12:38 PM

Dave,you are indispensable for the game.After I got over the "Awe" factor,that I can talk to the guy who sells the best par times,well it makes me glad racing is such a chummy community.It's cool to be able to read someone's book or product and talk to them about it.It fuels the goal to win this game.In the process though I think we grow a thick skin and a skeptical temperament.It's just par for the course.The dedication to always be on the learning and thinking process is what draws me to you as it should be an ongoing event.Take my comments with a grain of salt.Just a road tested salty dog over here!!!I listen to you though brother.

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 12:43 PM

Emails are being sent now!

If you do not receive yours by 10:30am (pacific) there was either a problem with your email address or your credit card (or you requested a CD).

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 12:55 PM

Cincy,

That is why I made light of it (and set aside a special copy just for you guys).

Seriously, this is really good stuff.

Did you know that only 14% of all winners take the lead at the 2nd call?

Did you know that 46% of all winners take the lead during the stretch run?

Can you imagine the difference in prices between "early" and "late" horses? Early horses pay (literally) half as much!

What if you could truly hone in on who the late horses will be? I promise you that conventional pace will not get most of these horses!

Current technologies in pace handicapping point you almost entirely to early horses. Heck, even when you get a horse that is the highest for sustained pace a significant part of the time he is actually an early horse!

How do you find the true late horses?

That is just part of this seminar.

And the great thing about it is that it integrates so well with other things.

Once the initial questions begin to come in - so I can see what I need to re-emphasize, improve and add - I will do a follow up workshop. That follow up workshop will be sent to everyone for free, of course.

Dave

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 01:03 PM

We will take last-minute orders at the $47 price until 12noon (pacific).

Sinner369

02-08-2011, 02:26 PM

Dave.........

I downloaded the files...........but for people that are having trouble.......

Right click the specific file and highlight the "save target" line to save the file to the directory you want......

I sure Others have other save methods...............

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 02:36 PM

Oops. I guess an instruction file would be a good idea.

Thanks!

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 03:32 PM

I have added an instruction file to the download.

Mike A

02-08-2011, 05:02 PM

what about those of us who ordered both the download and c.d. (like me).
No urgency, just letting you know I haven't received the email yet.

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 05:36 PM

People who ordered the CD were typically not sent a download.

I'll send you one right away.

Dave

shoelessjoe

02-08-2011, 07:22 PM

Should have spent the extra money for the CD,what a pain in the ass having to download each file seperately and it's slow going at that even with a cable modem.

02-08-2011, 07:24 PM

Try DownTheAll, the Firefox add on. Just click a few buttons and off it goes. Doesn't make the download any faster, but it is still quicker than the post office.

CBedo

02-08-2011, 07:30 PM

Should have spent the extra money for the CD,what a pain in the ass having to download each file seperately and it's slow going at that even with a cable modem.I have a fairly fast connection, but Dave's stuff is downloading really slow right now. Either too many people hitting the server, or something else going on on your end Dave. Downloads from other sites are working fine for me.

GameTheory

02-08-2011, 07:53 PM

I have a fairly fast connection, but Dave's stuff is downloading really slow right now. Either too many people hitting the server, or something else going on on your end Dave. Downloads from other sites are working fine for me.I think Dave has a home server for this stuff, so limited upstream...

CBedo

02-08-2011, 07:56 PM

I think Dave has a home server for this stuff, so limited upstream...Makes sense. I just hate having having to have patience, lol.

GT, I hope you're staying warm and off these crappy Denver roads.

Inglewood Flamingo

02-08-2011, 08:09 PM

In Dave's defense, I got them all downloaded inside of an hour. School is now in session!

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 08:18 PM

This is at a hosted site.

I guess I will need to take my marketing guy's advice and host products at Amazon. My guess is that there are about 100 people at once downloading.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Another alternative - download a couple of vids to watch and then wait until later to get the rest as the crowd thins out.

I did not even think to add up the final times. Last I saw it was about 2+ hours at like video 6. My guess would be a total of about 4 hours.

Dave

CBedo

02-08-2011, 08:24 PM

No worries here. I just wanted to make sure you knew. Only took me 20-30 minutes.

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 08:34 PM

I would say that 20-30 minutes is actually pretty good time. It took me about twice that to upload it.

Tom

02-08-2011, 11:29 PM

15 minutes for the intro!
I'll wait a few days.

Good old Road Runner......#$#^$&#%%
I seriously doubt the post office would be slower than TW.

pktruckdriver

02-08-2011, 11:43 PM

I have a fairly fast connection, but Dave's stuff is downloading really slow right now. Either too many people hitting the server, or something else going on on your end Dave. Downloads from other sites are working fine for me.

Same problem for me too, very slow, slower than normal.

CJ, I use Firefox, but am unaware of what you suggested, could you elaborate, please.

patrick

Dave Schwartz

02-08-2011, 11:52 PM

I will contact Amazon tomorrow and get an account open for downloading.

Sorry, guys. I just never thought this would be a problem.

Handiman

02-09-2011, 12:01 AM

Get a program that's free....DAP and the files download pretty fast.

I have watched about half of the videos so far and I like what Dave is presenting. It makes good sense to me....Don't know if that is necessarily a solid endorsement...:lol: But I can see a lot of logical sense.

Handi:)

pktruckdriver

02-09-2011, 12:31 AM

Sorry Dave

Now that I know it was an issue all of us was having it is really no big deal, I was thinking my connection was all of sudden going very slow on me, thank goodness it wasn't.

Oh by the way love this stuff Dave, very enlightening, even for me, great stuff.

patrick

The speed is worth waiting for

Dave Schwartz

02-09-2011, 12:43 AM

I was just handicapping Feb2, in post time order. (Non-Mdns dirt only)

The first 6 races were:

Feb 2, 2011
TAM1
TAM2
LRL2
GP2
GP3
TAM6

Try handicapping those with NewPace. See how you do. You should get them all, including the $78 horse, $20, $11.80 and the 3 low priced ones in your contenders. You might actually not play one or two of the low ones, but (literally) who cares?

GameTheory

02-09-2011, 04:29 AM

Downloading at 2am works fine!

Dave Schwartz

02-09-2011, 02:08 PM

BTW, if you ordered a CD, it has been shipped.

Dave

Profiler8

02-09-2011, 02:49 PM

Hi Dave,

really good seminar. I have not seen everything for now, but it is great.
Do you create this method to a software ?

Greetings
Tim

mistergee

02-09-2011, 03:11 PM

also Dave, how long does it normally take to do a card without software

CBedo

02-09-2011, 04:45 PM

Same problem for me too, very slow, slower than normal.

CJ, I use Firefox, but am unaware of what you suggested, could you elaborate, please.

patrickDownthemall is a Firefox extension that allows you to download multiple files with one click. Pretty easy to select/filter files to download.

Tom

02-09-2011, 05:18 PM

Much faster DL now.

gm10

02-09-2011, 06:06 PM

I would say that 20-30 minutes is actually pretty good time. It took me about twice that to upload it.

I'm guessing you have Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) ;)

Dave Schwartz

02-09-2011, 08:12 PM

I used to have a T1, then decided I was tired of paying $650 per month for less bandwidth than you get with a $40 cable subscription.

Now I have AT&T Uverse. That's fiber optic but I am a long way from the nearest CO. It is a solid 18mb down (although they promised me and I pay for 25mb) but only about 1.8 up (on a good day).

Dave

Dave Schwartz

02-09-2011, 08:17 PM

also Dave, how long does it normally take to do a card without software

Sorry, I missed your question.

The truth is, I don't know. I have never handicapped an entire card by hand without making notes, concentrating on careful penmanship, charting 3 different angles, etc.

My best guess would be that it takes about 8-10 minutes per race once you get good at it. Certainly far less time than it would take to do feet-per-second by hand.

If you use the accompanying spreadsheet, the math is done for you which really helps.

Dave Schwartz

02-11-2011, 01:49 AM

Nice email today from a NewPace user:

Got the video which downloaded in 20 minutes with no traffic to your
site. I don't usually comment on things I buy, but the first race I
tried was the first race at SA today. Hit $2 win on Argenta ($71.20).
Thanks.

Did anyone else have that race?

Red Knave

02-11-2011, 12:52 PM

Did anyone else have that race?
Pretty serious accident in that race took out the 2nd and 3rd favorite and caused the favorite to check.
It looked like the RegSpeedLow on the winner was too low.

TrifectaMike

02-11-2011, 02:52 PM

Pretty serious accident in that race took out the 2nd and 3rd favorite and caused the favorite to check.
It looked like the RegSpeedLow on the winner was too low.

What is RegSpeedLow?

Mike

Dave Schwartz

02-11-2011, 03:06 PM

It is a factor that represents the lowest speed rating the horse is likely to run today.

TrifectaMike

02-11-2011, 03:14 PM

It is a factor that represents the lowest speed rating the horse is likely to run today.

Interesting! That would involve some fairly complex math to determine. What approach did you use?

Mike

Houndog

02-11-2011, 03:29 PM

Since Bris is running a special in February on their Ultimate PP's I used the Bris speed figure as opposed to the Beyer number. The "SWING" horse was the favorite #5 Alpine Yodel. I would be inclined to use this horse as one of the Early horses with the #2 Saint's Crown.

In that case my 2 Late horses would be #3 Lucy Got Lucky and #8 Argenta.

Red Knave

02-11-2011, 08:42 PM

Mike
Interesting! That would involve some fairly complex math to determine. What approach did you use?
It's part of the NewPace videos that Dave just published so I suggest you contact him directly to find out.

Houndog

I used the Bris speed figure as opposed to the Beyer number. The "SWING" horse was the favorite #5 Alpine Yodel. I would be inclined to use this horse as one of the Early horses with the #2 Saint's Crown.
In that case my 2 Late horses would be #3 Lucy Got Lucky and #8 Argenta.
Nice hit. When I looked at it, I had 3 late horses, including Argenta, so he would have been out for me.
The place horse was one of my early horses.
Together, we could have gotten a sweet exacta. :)

Dave Schwartz

02-11-2011, 10:55 PM

You know, I actually love seeing posts like these where there is a little variation in the plays.

I had someone today ask me if I couldn't just "put it on a button" in HSH. I explained that the last thing I wanted was everyone on precisely the same horses. If I leave it as a multi-step process, people WILL make the system there own to some degree.

I have some workshops coming up in the next two months for NewPace. One will be the "follow up" workshop where I take the common questions people have sent in and address those.

Then there will be an HSH/NewPace workshop which will show people how to duplicate it within our software. (Note that I am going to write some code this week to make it easier.)

Finally, there will be a live workshop where I will present ideas for improvement, especially from the ideas sent in by our users. This is probably 6-8 weeks away.

This is a technology that needs to expand!