Pace Pros -- 2 years plus experience

[Capper Al]

In a post, someone implied that they used Pace figures in place of Speed figures. I just wondered how many of you do or don't, and why and why not.

Thanks

[Fingal]

To put it in Football terms, Herm Edwards once said-
" you throw the ball to score, you run it to win."

For me in racing it's the same.

I use pace figures to score ( get into position )
And final figs to win ( Speed patterns )

[Fastracehorse]

and analyze pace in terms of a tactical advantage, i don't feel i need a numerical rating for this

fffastt

[Dave Schwartz]

Al,

If you are referring to my post - which you may not be doing - what I said that not too many people select pace lines to get speed figures.

If I am mistaken, sorry.

Dave

[thaskalos]

All experienced handicappers have their own handicapping styles - which they are comfortable with - and, predictably, there are wide areas of disagreement among them, whenever they discuss handicapping theory.

IMO, handicapping should be made as simple as possible...but no simpler!

In my own handicapping of SPRINT races, I rely on pace ratings alone...because I am much more interested in the way the race unfolded, than I am about the final clocking that it registered.

I know that some of the game's most renowned players have advocated pace ANALYSIS rather than pace ratings...but I humbly disagree.

IMO, the only way to conduct a thorough pace analysis...is by using accurate pace ratings at every point of call.

[cj]

In my opinion, there are two types of "pace handicapping".

The first is to evaluate the ability of each horse. You use pace figures to supplement speed figures. No one number in isolation, be it a pace or a speed figure, is going to give you the whole picture of how a horse ran in a race. Of course numbers alone will never do that, but pace/speed combo beats either one in isolation.

The second type is to try to get a handle on what type of pace might be expected in today's race. I would say speed figures mean little in this type, but pace numbers, along with early positional analysis, mean a lot.

[Tom]

I use pace and speed figs alone, combined, and I use pace analysis.
Can't vote.

[thaskalos]

Like I said...wide areas of disagreement.

And that's how it should be...

There is more than one way to skin a cat...

[Capper Al]

Al,

If you are referring to my post - which you may not be doing - what I said that not too many people select pace lines to get speed figures.

If I am mistaken, sorry.

Dave

It was your comment that started me thinking about this. There's nothing to be sorry about. It is an interesting point of view how cappers put it all together.

[Capper Al]

You nailed most of it, Pace analysis verse Pace rating. One can just use Speed and do a little Pace analysis while others will use Pace ratings as forceabily as Speed cappers use Speed figures.

All experienced handicappers have their own handicapping styles - which they are comfortable with - and, predictably, there are wide areas of disagreement among them, whenever they discuss handicapping theory.

IMO, handicapping should be made as simple as possible...but no simpler!

In my own handicapping of SPRINT races, I rely on pace ratings alone...because I am much more interested in the way the race unfolded, than I am about the final clocking that it registered.

I know that some of the game's most renowned players have advocated pace ANALYSIS rather than pace ratings...but I humbly disagree.

IMO, the only way to conduct a thorough pace analysis...is by using accurate pace ratings at every point of call.

[Capper Al]

I use pace and speed figs alone, combined, and I use pace analysis.
Can't vote.

It was difficult to come up with the perfect questions. But thanks for your comment. Will your Pace figures ever differ from your Pace analysis? Let's say in a sprint that a horse is an E8 but his Pace figure is low. How would you resolve this?

[garyscpa]

It was difficult to come up with the perfect questions. But thanks for your comment. Will your Pace figures ever differ from your Pace analysis? Let's say in a sprint that a horse is an E8 but his Pace figure is low. How would you resolve this?

It depends on the other early pace horses in the race, if there are any. If there aren't, they may all run a 26 second first quarter.

[Tom]

And E, a need the lead horse, with deficient pace figs is cause to throw the horse out, normally.

But say the E horse has a 98 and the top pace horse has a 101, but is a P horse. I will assume the E will have the lead over the P horse ( if the P could go to the front, I would have labeled it and E/P, not a P). I look for P1 or P2 horses all the time, assuming the have enough speed to be close while not using all thier potential, and will have much left in the tank late.

Assigning the running style accurately is of the utmost importance to me in race where I use pace. I do not think pace is the answer in may races, though, many more than I used to think. It is important to the outcome, but you will never be able to predict it before hand. CJ's PF figure, a speed figure modified by pace takes care of a lot of unknowns.

[thaskalos]

It was difficult to come up with the perfect questions. But thanks for your comment. Will your Pace figures ever differ from your Pace analysis? Let's say in a sprint that a horse is an E8 but his Pace figure is low. How would you resolve this?The question is NOT: "who will go to the lead"?...the proper question should be: "will the pace-setter make a comfortable lead, or will he exhaust himself in the process?"

The E8 horse may very well set the early pace against seemingly faster front-running competition...but it's chances of winning the race are slim.

[garyscpa]

The question is NOT: "who will go to the lead"?...the proper question should be: "will the pace-setter make a comfortable lead, or will he exhaust himself in the process?"

The E8 horse may very well set the early pace against seemingly faster front-running competition...but it's chances of winning the race are slim.

It's pretty tough to be an E8 and have inferior pace figures unless the horse is outclassed or entered at the wrong distance. I would think that a slow pace scenario would favor the front-runner.

[thaskalos]

It's pretty tough to be an E8 and have inferior pace figures unless the horse is outclassed or entered at the wrong distance. Not true!

[garyscpa]

Not true!

How did he get to be an E8, then?

[thaskalos]

How did he get to be an E8, then?The E8 designation is given because of the horse's perfomance at the 1/4 call...but the most significant pace ratings are calculated at the 1/2 mile call.

It's not unusual for an E8 horse to have weak 1/2 mile pace ratings.

[garyscpa]

The E8 designation is given because of the horse's perfomance at the 1/4 call...but the most significant pace ratings are calculated at the 1/2 mile call.

It's not unusual for an E8 horse to have weak 1/2 mile pace ratings.

Well, then he'd better be and E8/S or he's in the wrong class.

Anyway, if he's an E8 with a slow pace rating, it looks like a setup for the P's.

[cj]

The E8 designation is given because of the horse's perfomance at the 1/4 call...but the most significant pace ratings are calculated at the 1/2 mile call.

It's not unusual for an E8 horse to have weak 1/2 mile pace ratings.

I ran a query of all E8s that were not rated 1-2-3 in my second call rating, 1/2 for sprints and 3/4 for routes. I originally broke it down by surface, but that didn't seem to be much of a factor. The results are not pretty:

Runners Win WinPct AvgPay ROI
3502 279 7.97% $14.82 59.05%

[garyscpa]

I ran a query of all E8s that were not rated 1-2-3 in my second call rating, 1/2 for sprints and 3/4 for routes. I originally broke it down by surface, but that didn't seem to be much of a factor. The results are not pretty:

Runners Win WinPct AvgPay ROI
3502 279 7.97% $14.82 59.05%

So we can pretty much assume that the horse is in the wrong class, wouldn't you say?

[thaskalos]

I ran a query of all E8s that were not rated 1-2-3 in my second call rating, 1/2 for sprints and 3/4 for routes. I originally broke it down by surface, but that didn't seem to be much of a factor. The results are not pretty:

Runners Win WinPct AvgPay ROI
3502 279 7.97% $14.82 59.05%Would it be too much of an incovenience if I asked you to separate the sprints from the routes CJ?

[cj]

Would it be too much of an incovenience if I asked you to separate the sprints from the routes CJ?

No, give me a few. Here are how horses ranked 1-2-3 do if E8:

Rank Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
1 12690 3126 24.63% $7.38 90.86%
2 6049 961 15.89% $9.33 74.12%
3 3105 389 12.53% $12.89 80.76%

[PhantomOnTour]

DIRT: pace and speed figs in combination

TURF: pace figs only, although combining my pace figs for turf (primarily pace call and final fraction) is a speed fig since pace call + final fraction = final time

[cj]

So we can pretty much assume that the horse is in the wrong class, wouldn't you say?

I would so yes, almost always.

[cj]

Sprint vs Route, E8 not in top 3 at second call:

Dis Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
S 2606 198 7.60% $15.35 58.31%
R 896 81 9.04% $13.54 61.21%

[thaskalos]

Sprint vs Route, E8 not in top 3 at second call:

Dis Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
S 2606 198 7.60% $15.35 58.31%
R 896 81 9.04% $13.54 61.21%
Interesting...thanks!

[cj]

I should mention I determine EPS by "good races", not necessarily the most recent. I doubt it would change things much.

[garyscpa]

I should mention I determine EPS by "good races", not necessarily the most recent. I doubt it would change things much.

So you're saying we can't use the Breeder's Cup Classic to determine Zenyatta's running style? :)

[cj]

So you're saying we can't use the Breeder's Cup Classic to determine Zenyatta's running style? :)

I will only say it was a good race by my standards. I must refrain from any other Zed talk.

[garyscpa]

I will only say it was a good race by my standards. I must refrain from any other Zed talk.

I was impressed by Zenyatta's performance also.

[thaskalos]

I will only say it was a good race by my standards. I must refrain from any other Zed talk.C'mon CJ...I - for one - beg you to reconsider.

The Zenyatta conversations won't be the same without you.

We'll both make a pact to stop talking about Zenyatta...a week after the HOTY award recipient is announced.

And I promise to keep my word this time. :)

[cj]

C'mon CJ...I - for one - beg you to reconsider.

The Zenyatta conversations won't be the same without you.

We'll both make a pact to stop talking about Zenyatta...a week after the HOTY award recipient is announced.

And I promise to keep my word this time. :)

There really isn't anything new to add. Lets keep this thread on topic.

[garyscpa]

Sprint vs Route, E8 not in top 3 at second call:

Dis Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay ROI
S 2606 198 7.60% $15.35 58.31%
R 896 81 9.04% $13.54 61.21%


So it looks like about 1 in 7 E8's don't make the top three at the pace call or about 28%. Do we have any average odds for these horses?

[bobphilo]

In a post, someone implied that they used Pace figures in place of Speed figures. I just wondered how many of you do or don't, and why and why not.

Thanks

In my pace analysis, I use position and beaten lengths at the pace calls to predict where a horse will likely be running at these calls.
I use pace figures as one of the ways to explain a horse's final speed figures. Did a high or low pace figure contribute to a particular horses' final time or speed figure? I rarely use a pace figure alone but as a better way of understanding why a horse ran a particular speed figure, much as I would use trip to explain a change in speed figures.

Bob

[CBedo]

I agree with Tom's original comments that it depends on the situation on what I use and to what extent.

I would add that some who say they don't use speed figures but do use pace figures are to some extent using speed figures. When you take a 2nd call early pace rating and then add the 2nd call to end late pace rating, the combination of the two is going to more than likely correlate very highly with the speed figure (TPRs come to mind).

[Pgh. Gere]

IMO, handicapping should be made as simple as possible...but no simpler!
.[/QUOTE I agree with that, which is why for me I use pace analysis and position. Pace figures clouded my view, kept me seeing who was gonna lead, who was gonna follow and would anyone have a paceadvantage. As others have alluded to, think pace figures can greatly help in decided on a variant for a day's card.

[Stillriledup]

How good are the Moss pace figures, anyone use these?

[PhantomOnTour]

How good are the Moss pace figures, anyone use these?
I don't use Moss figs, but the reviews/opinions I've read is that they aren't good.

[garyscpa]

I ran a query of all E8s that were not rated 1-2-3 in my second call rating, 1/2 for sprints and 3/4 for routes. I originally broke it down by surface, but that didn't seem to be much of a factor. The results are not pretty:

Runners Win WinPct AvgPay ROI
3502 279 7.97% $14.82 59.05%

Any idea what this would look like if the query was "all E8s that were not rated 1-2-3 in my second call rating, 1/2 for sprints and 3/4 for routes and no other E horses started in the race?

[cj]

Here it is with the E8 being the only E in the race.

Run Win WinPct AvgPay ROI
462 43 9.31% $14.30 66.56%

[garyscpa]

Here it is with the E8 being the only E in the race.

Run Win WinPct AvgPay ROI
462 43 9.31% $14.30 66.56%

Hm, still pretty pathetic.

[cj]

Hm, still pretty pathetic.

Yeah, tactical advantage doesn't mean much if the horse is too slow.

[Stillriledup]

I don't use Moss figs, but the reviews/opinions I've read is that they aren't good.

Thanks.

[classhandicapper]

I use pace and speed figs alone, combined, and I use pace analysis.
Can't vote.

I have you beat.

I use all three and also look at the charts to do a comparative analysis of who was running with who and how the race developed (kind of like the_fat_man). Of course by the time I finish handicapping the 1st race at AQU, they are already up to the 8th race at Yonkers. :bang:

[classhandicapper]

How good are the Moss pace figures, anyone use these?

Like all numeric measurements, there are issues with accuracy here or there, but if you understand what they are measuring, they are very useful. I use them every day. I have also heard from Randy a big upgrade is coming that might contain a few things I've been asking for.

[classhandicapper]

To me the biggest problem is the scenario where you know a specific horse has enough speed to shake loose and set a slow pace, but overall it's a mildly/moderately inferior horse.

It's hard to know how extreme the slow pace is going to be and whether the advantage will be enough to offset the disadvantage in ability.

I see very inferior horses move up a huge amount and others hardly move up at all.

I see closers that can't make up any ground against the slow pace because they are more even paced and lack acceleration and others that can explode late. It gets doubly tricky on turf where there are a lot of horses that can explode late.

The other issue is one of class.

Even when two horses look similar numerically, if one has been showing its speed against much better, it usually has some reserve acceleration and speed that the other does not. In fact, if the cheap one looks faster, the classier one will often collar it by the top of the stretch anyway. IMO "quality" is huge even though the public tends to recognize that fact.

(Oh, and by the way, IMO Zenyatta ran a great race in the Classic. Probably one of the top 5 performances by a mare in the last 35 years)

[Fastracehorse]

All experienced handicappers have their own handicapping styles - which they are comfortable with - and, predictably, there are wide areas of disagreement among them, whenever they discuss handicapping theory.

IMO, handicapping should be made as simple as possible...but no simpler!

In my own handicapping of SPRINT races, I rely on pace ratings alone...because I am much more interested in the way the race unfolded, than I am about the final clocking that it registered.

I know that some of the game's most renowned players have advocated pace ANALYSIS rather than pace ratings...but I humbly disagree.

IMO, the only way to conduct a thorough pace analysis...is by using accurate pace ratings at every point of call.

horses have running styles - where they like to be tactically as regards to the pace

we already know how they are going to run - or at least we make a postulate

so we just need to know if that style will hold water in today's race - ala speed fig ( ie, can the horse compete )

i've re-hashed this many times: i believe a speed fig measures pace - because a horse in a better class, 'most times' runs a faster time, and into a faster pace, and in this way: speed=class=pace

speed fig nice tidy #, this also protects against the danger of over-precision, in an organic game

fffastt

[thaskalos]

horses have running styles - where they like to be tactically as regards to the pace

we already know how they are going to run - or at least we make a postulate

so we just need to know if that style will hold water in today's race - ala speed fig ( ie, can the horse compete )

i've re-hashed this many times: i believe a speed fig measures pace - because a horse in a better class, 'most times' runs a faster time, and into a faster pace, and in this way: speed=class=pace

speed fig nice tidy #, this also protects against the danger of over-precision, in an organic game

fffasttLike I said...we'll just have to agree to disagree.

To me...handicapping is about more than assessing running styles, and comparing speed figures.

I believe that horses often make sudden moves "within" the race, which are not apparent by looking at the speed figure...or by casually glancing at the running line.

These sudden moves often indicate improving form...or, in some cases, they provide a valid excuse for an otherwise "inexcusable" performance.

Pace handicapping, to me, is about more than which horse will go to the lead...or who will charge from behind; it is a necessary component in properly understanding the totality of a horse's performance.

Speed figures may be "tidy"...but they are not enough to do a thorough job, IMO...especially in sprints.

And in grass races, of course...

[RichieP]

I believe that horses often make sudden moves "within" the race, which are not apparent by looking at the speed figure...or by casually glancing at the running line.

These sudden moves often indicate improving form...or, in some cases, they provide a valid excuse for an otherwise "inexcusable" performance.


"Hat" Bradshaw used to tell me to watch out for horses that have been breaking poorly lately and closing from deep in the pack (he hated the deep closing or "mars" horses). Last race the horse markedly improves at the break call and is 1-2 position. If that horse below in his pps showed good running lines from much closer to the leader at 1c-2c he told me to consider that horse coming back into good form. He would tell me there is value looking all the way left on the pp line cause most look all the way to the right where the finish position and speed ratings are. :)

[thaskalos]

"Hat" Bradshaw used to tell me to watch out for horses that have been breaking poorly lately and closing from deep in the pack (he hated the deep closing or "mars" horses). Last race the horse markedly improves at the break call and is 1-2 position. If that horse below in his pps showed good running lines from much closer to the leader at 1c-2c he told me to consider that horse coming back into good form. He would tell me there is value looking all the way left on the pp line cause most look all the way to the right where the finish position and speed ratings are. :)Then...I am in very good company...:)

[Tom]

To me...handicapping is about more than assessing running styles, and comparing speed figures.

Who said it wasn't?

[thaskalos]

Who said it wasn't?Fastracehorse...I think...

[fmolf]

how would one determine if any horse in any given race wouldbe positioned close enough to the lead to win without using some form of numerical pace rating?...strictly by raw times?...

[classhandicapper]

how would one determine if any horse in any given race wouldbe positioned close enough to the lead to win without using some form of numerical pace rating?...strictly by raw times?...

By looking at running styles.

Horse do not run at their top speed from start to finish in most races. They typically run just fast enough to get the position they want. So if a horse is consistently running a certain way (like always getting the lead) it could have speed in reserve that is not showing up in the fractions or in pace figures.

[Capper Al]

Understand how a race was run and the pace involved may help to analysis a hidden potential in the next race(trapped unused speed). The horse might have been ready but block because he was on the inside and the pace was slow and backed up. The ability to analysis this and make use of it is mind boggling and near impossible for me.

I have been testing Randy Giles doodles and not once have I been able to predict a winner outside of speed. Pace analysis makes me wonder. But I do use pace figures.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Quirin speed points for probable pace,the Hat's "Matchup",pace numbers to separate the contenders within the running styles.That's pretty much my method.

I just got Giles book in the mail and have been looking at Pace and Cap's library.I'm in the dark ages compared to some of you.This stuff gets me amped up!

[Kevroc]

An invaluable tool is the video library, where you can view these hidden "middle moves" within the splits and see how the horse made their move.

One angle that gets me excited is a young sprinter making a middling move on a turn. A youngster that learns how to corner well has a leg up on the competition. The next steps would be learning to chase and pass as well as learn how to change leads (smoothly) in the stretch.

Making up ground on turns though I believe is the crucial first of those three steps for an improving young horse.

[Robert Goren]

I do not use pace numbers. I probably would if I could get accurate information. The published lengths backs at the fractional calls are a joke. The times are not always accurate either.

[garyscpa]

Understand how a race was run and the pace involved may help to analysis a hidden potential in the next race(trapped unused speed). The horse might have been ready but block because he was on the inside and the pace was slow and backed up. The ability to analysis this and make use of it is mind boggling and near impossible for me.

I have been testing Randy Giles doodles and not once have I been able to predict a winner outside of speed. Pace analysis makes me wonder. But I do use pace figures.

I'm just reading the Ragozin book and I'm on that very chapter. He had claimed some horses and instructed the jockeys to always save ground on the rail even if they got trapped. That way the horse didn't waste all his energy on a losing outside effort.

According to him, no bounce and better odds when the horse found the alley.

[Fastracehorse]

Like I said...we'll just have to agree to disagree.

To me...handicapping is about more than assessing running styles, and comparing speed figures.

I believe that horses often make sudden moves "within" the race, which are not apparent by looking at the speed figure...or by casually glancing at the running line.

These sudden moves often indicate improving form...or, in some cases, they provide a valid excuse for an otherwise "inexcusable" performance.

Pace handicapping, to me, is about more than which horse will go to the lead...or who will charge from behind; it is a necessary component in properly understanding the totality of a horse's performance.

Speed figures may be "tidy"...but they are not enough to do a thorough job, IMO...especially in sprints.

And in grass races, of course...

....speed figs are thorough; that's all you would need in some cases, including sprints and grass

......irony is, i like betting against horses with much-the-best speed figs that everybody has; another way to get an overlay

....one important part of a speed fig is that they predict the future - adjusted speed figs, and RUNNING LINES are a huge part of this, don't kid yourself, but like you said - there are visual ways to predict future improvements; such as an explosive late bid, or even a horse that subtley just got up easy

.....i am openly admitting that speed figs have weaknesses, i actually think FORM is a more important factor,

..having said that, one advantage w/ speed figs is that you can easily evaluate comparatively in many races, form is less tactile, and figs are an amazing predictor so I absolutely have to have them, or the ink got smudged

fffastt

[thaskalos]

....speed figs are thorough; that's all you would need in some cases, including sprints and grass

......irony is, i like betting against horses with much-the-best speed figs that everybody has; another way to get an overlay

....one important part of a speed fig is that they predict the future - adjusted speed figs, and RUNNING LINES are a huge part of this, don't kid yourself, but like you said - there are visual ways to predict future improvements; such as an explosive late bid, or even a horse that subtley just got up easy

.....i am openly admitting that speed figs have weaknesses, i actually think FORM is a more important factor,

..having said that, one advantage w/ speed figs is that you can easily evaluate comparatively in many races, form is less tactile, and figs are an amazing predictor so I absolutely have to have them, or the ink got smudged

fffasttThe handicapping process can be as simple - or as complicated - as we choose to make it.

If you are happy with the results you are getting, then you should continue doing exactly what you have already been doing...and don't let anybody else tell you otherwise.

[Capper Al]

Quirin speed points for probable pace,the Hat's "Matchup",pace numbers to separate the contenders within the running styles.That's pretty much my method.

I just got Giles book in the mail and have been looking at Pace and Cap's library.I'm in the dark ages compared to some of you.This stuff gets me amped up!

Please tell us what you think about Giles book. I've actually posted some doodles here in the forum. You might have to re-read the first few chapters a couple of times.

[Capper Al]

The handicapping process can be as simple - or as complicated - as we choose to make it.

If you are happy with the results you are getting, then you should continue doing exactly what you have already been doing...and don't let anybody else tell you otherwise.

I have gone from simple to complex back to simple back to complex back to simple back to complex, over and over again. I believe I might have found some clarity now.

[jasperson]

I use pace and speed figs alone, combined, and I use pace analysis.
Can't vote.
I am with you Tom, but I voted for speed and pace seperately. Some times you will see and E8 that doesn't have the pace figure to get the lead and a S0 that has the pace rating to get the lead but he doen't want it. Therefore in those type of races analyzing the pace of the other horses is a must.
Jack

[cj]

The handicapping process can be as simple - or as complicated - as we choose to make it.

If you are happy with the results you are getting, then you should continue doing exactly what you have already been doing...and don't let anybody else tell you otherwise.

Those that claim it is simple are usually full of it. There is no way you are overcoming a 20% takeout with simple methods that don't employ tons of hard work.

[thaskalos]

Those that claim it is simple are usually full of it. There is no way you are overcoming a 20% takeout with simple methods that don't employ tons of hard work.I agree with you...but I sometimes find people who report outrageous results while using simplistic, primitive tools...while I - who burns the midnight oil trying to be as thorough as possible - have to be satisfied with results that are meager by comparison.

I always thought that they were lying...and then I had a thought...

There are geniuses in every intellectual endeavor in existence...couldn't there be handicapping geniuses too?

[cj]

I agree with you...but I sometimes find people who report outrageous results while using simplistic, primitive tools...while I - who burns the midnight oil trying to be as thorough as possible - have to be satisfied with results that are meager by comparison.

I always thought that they were lying...and then I had a thought...

There are geniuses in every intellectual endeavor in existence...couldn't there be handicapping geniuses too?

Yes, but there are geniuses that are bums. You still have to work hard, not take shortcuts.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Please tell us what you think about Giles book. I've actually posted some doodles here in the forum. You might have to re-read the first few chapters a couple of times.

Will do.I was flipping through it the other day and judging by the bits I read I'll be ready to throw a couple of hot coals in the brain and burn it up for 20 hour stretches!!!I already did it this week after reading William Scott's Investing at the Racetrack,which I totally disagreed with and it frustrated me to read,but I liked his concepts and I revisited the concept of ability times between him and Mitchell and I came up with my own perverse version from manipulated Sartin concepts,was up for about 2 days straight.So I'm looking forward to this book!!:)

[CincyHorseplayer]

CJ or anybody else I have to ask,when you evaluate shippers to any given track or have a medley of horses from different tracks how much do pace figures come into play than just evaluating class shifts,track to track purse differentials,probable pace and track profile?

This is really a lazy question.I should just buy some Pars and I could figure it out for myself.Anyway,your answer could convince me to!!:cool:

[cj]

CJ or anybody else I have to ask,when you evaluate shippers to any given track or have a medley of horses from different tracks how much do pace figures come into play than just evaluating class shifts,track to track purse differentials,probable pace and track profile?

This is really a lazy question.I should just buy some Pars and I could figure it out for myself.Anyway,your answer could convince me to!!:cool:

I've already done the work to equalize tracks. I'm giving something like that out as one of the prizes for the contest. It is A LOT of work...A LOT.

[thaskalos]

CJ or anybody else I have to ask,when you evaluate shippers to any given track or have a medley of horses from different tracks how much do pace figures come into play than just evaluating class shifts,track to track purse differentials,probable pace and track profile?

This is really a lazy question.I should just buy some Pars and I could figure it out for myself.Anyway,your answer could convince me to!!:cool:Track pars are the way to go. Inaccuracies are much more significant to the pace handicapper than they are to the final-time handicapper.

I highly recommend Dave Schwartz' Pars...but there are other good ones as well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've already done the work to equalize tracks. I'm giving something like that out as one of the prizes for the contest. It is A LOT of work...A LOT.

I figured I wouldn't get off that easy!You know I'm not here for that though.I love the jibber jabber,plain and simple!

[Capper Al]

Will do.I was flipping through it the other day and judging by the bits I read I'll be ready to throw a couple of hot coals in the brain and burn it up for 20 hour stretches!!!I already did it this week after reading William Scott's Investing at the Racetrack,which I totally disagreed with and it frustrated me to read,but I liked his concepts and I revisited the concept of ability times between him and Mitchell and I came up with my own perverse version from manipulated Sartin concepts,was up for about 2 days straight.So I'm looking forward to this book!!:)

Here's the link I started for doodles.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=77510&highlight=doodles

I found Giles analysis does well in predicting how a race is run, but nothing much for picking winners. For me, that was something big. Before that it seemed my early types never left the gate.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here's the link I started for doodles.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=77510&highlight=doodles

I found Giles analysis does well in predicting how a race is run, but nothing much for picking winners. For me, that was something big. Before that it seemed my early types never left the gate.

I remember that thread.And I looked at the book reviews from the search engine.That's why I bought the book!!I listen to you bro!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well so far I'm only about 1/3 of the way through the Giles book.I like it a lot so far.It's amazing,looking at the Quirin style pace point numbers is one of the first things I do when handicapping but I had never isolated it as a single factor to break down and look for archetypes within it.So far I'm just brushing up on the technique and doodling some races from late last year.Between that and revisiting the ability time concept brought up by reading Scott's book,and having come up with what I feel is a strong one,I spend about only an hour reading a day and about 3-4 looking at old forms.Aaah this is why I love January!

[Capper Al]

Well so far I'm only about 1/3 of the way through the Giles book.I like it a lot so far.It's amazing,looking at the Quirin style pace point numbers is one of the first things I do when handicapping but I had never isolated it as a single factor to break down and look for archetypes within it.So far I'm just brushing up on the technique and doodling some races from late last year.Between that and revisiting the ability time concept brought up by reading Scott's book,and having come up with what I feel is a strong one,I spend about only an hour reading a day and about 3-4 looking at old forms.Aaah this is why I love January!

Gile is different than all the other pace books. It's refreshing. Your combination of Scott's ability time and Giles method sounds like it has potential. They approach a race from different view points. They seem that they might be complimentary to one another. Good luck, and keep us informed.

[windoor]

I can not vote as you did not include a "none of the above" :)

While pace and speed numbers has proven to be effective in selecting winners, I find that the odds are generally too low to earn a consistent profit (for me)

Form cycle and a combination of spot play factors works well for me.

Regards,

Windoor