Brisnet USERS

[bigga 1]

What process do you use in handicapping maiden special weight sprints(5-6f)?

[Jay Trotter]

DARTS


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[bigga 1]

DARTS


http://www.gnurf.net/v3/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/036-darts-player.pngT
Thats not quite what i was looking for,but by chance you do have some helpful info i would truly appreciate.

[PICSIX]

The #9 at Aqueduct Race-4. Nice last race followed up by a great work. :ThmbUp:

[PICSIX]

The #9 at Aqueduct Race-4. Nice last race followed up by a great work. :ThmbUp:

Or just bet Dominguez. :blush:

[skate]

What process do you use in handicapping maiden special weight sprints(5-6f)?

easy enough, but it sure does depend on which TRACK you play.

[fmolf]

I look for an in form horse..breaking from the inside...with tactical speed....from a good barn.If this horse is odds on i throw darts!!!!

[Dick Powell]

I am a BRIS user as well as a writer for them and love maiden races with first time starters. Basically, there are two things I look for: nature and nurture.

Nature is the horse's pedigree. What I want to know are the percentage of first out winners the sire and the dam's sire produce. That gives me a quick indication if the horse might come out running. Next, I want to see what the dam has produced and how they have done on the track. All this is available in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances as well as sales statistics and the average winning distance for the sire and dam's sire.

Nurture is the ability of the people around the horse to have him come out running. BRIS Ultimate Past Performances give you detailed information on the trainer's record with first time starters, second time starters, MSW, Maid CL and MSW to Maid CL. etc. Some trainers are proficient with firsters and some like to give their horses a race before they are fit. Workouts become less important for me since guys like Steve Asmussen win big first time out but their workout patterns are many slow breezes. I like to see one, two at most, gate workouts since if I see too many it might indicate that the horse is having trouble and needs more work.

If a horse has both nature and nurture, it's a major contender. If a horse has one and not the other, I favor nature over nurture. A trainer that wins a low percentage of first time starters can still win with a horse that has a precocious pedigree but a horse with a long-distance, late maturing pedigree rarely wins for a trainer that is great with first time starters.

I let a Neil Howard (4% first time out) first time starter go by at the Fair Grounds last week when he won with a son of Distorted Humor who is fantastic with firsters. Big mistake on my part.

[Cheap Speed]

Dick,

I use a similar philosophy although I also look for supporting workout patterns incuding 5f works. Curious what raw % gets your attention when you consider FTS as far sire and trainers or is it a gap vs others.

[bigga 1]

I am a BRIS user as well as a writer for them and love maiden races with first time starters. Basically, there are two things I look for: nature and nurture.

Nature is the horse's pedigree. What I want to know are the percentage of first out winners the sire and the dam's sire produce. That gives me a quick indication if the horse might come out running. Next, I want to see what the dam has produced and how they have done on the track. All this is available in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances as well as sales statistics and the average winning distance for the sire and dam's sire.

Nurture is the ability of the people around the horse to have him come out running. BRIS Ultimate Past Performances give you detailed information on the trainer's record with first time starters, second time starters, MSW, Maid CL and MSW to Maid CL. etc. Some trainers are proficient with firsters and some like to give their horses a race before they are fit. Workouts become less important for me since guys like Steve Asmussen win big first time out but their workout patterns are many slow breezes. I like to see one, two at most, gate workouts since if I see too many it might indicate that the horse is having trouble and needs more work.

If a horse has both nature and nurture, it's a major contender. If a horse has one and not the other, I favor nature over nurture. A trainer that wins a low percentage of first time starters can still win with a horse that has a precocious pedigree but a horse with a long-distance, late maturing pedigree rarely wins for a trainer that is great with first time starters.

I let a Neil Howard (4% first time out) first time starter go by at the Fair Grounds last week when he won with a son of Distorted Humor who is fantastic with firsters. Big mistake on my part.
Thank you very much Dick,thats some what of a conformation to what i do and i think i'm on the right track.I also when looking at sprint races,if nobody does the early speed par,i then look at first time starters(msw races only).And Md claiming races i very rarely look at first timers, very,very low win%.I tend to focus on a few other angles e.g.Msw drop downs,previous bet downs,and if nobody does the early par i look very closley at the closers or horses which have been laid off and coming back with specified amount of workouts.Dick i would like for you to respond and at least advise me if i'm on the right track.
P.S.I never bet first time starters going a route.

[Dick Powell]

Cheap speed: I probably favor pedigree over trainer angles if they are close. If they don't have the pedigree, give them a race before betting them.

One thing I focus on is trainers' first time and second time win percentages. For example, on Monday's card at the Fair Grounds in race three, Wes Hawley has a second time starter, Hunter Vision, in a bottom-level maiden claimer. Hawley wins 12% first time out but then 25% second time out so this one should improve a lot today.

Bigga: I'll have to see about firsters doing better in MSW than Maid CL. It does make some sense since many Maid Cl starters have already raced in MSW so if they win, they are not firsters. MSW races attract the world beaters which usually win first out. I am doing some extenisve analysis of Fair Grounds and track how that angle does.

[Cheap Speed]

Dick,

Sorry about the confusion. What I meant to ask is what % FTS sire or dam sire and what % FTS trainer stats do you consider significant.

[Dick Powell]

Anything near 20% is excellent so if you see a trainer that wins 17% FTS and the sire is 15%, that is excellent. For trainers, you also have to put it in the context of how they do overall. If a trainer only wins 5% with all their starters, it's unlikely that they are going to have a great record first out. But when a Hall of Fame trainer like Bill Mott wins 20% overall but only around 10% FTS you can take a pass on his firsters (unless they are going long on the grass). For years, Nick Zito used to be a 6% FTS trainer but then he had a huge meet at Saratoga with numerous FTS winners and his FTS percentage went up to about 15%. Now it's back to single digits. See Chad Brown this year.