Ric Hammerle "Handle was OK this week"

[jelly]

On the Steve Byk show this morning Ric Hammerle said "Handle was OK this week" :lol:

Is this guy for real?Last I heard handle was down 18% for the first week.

If I'm wrong please correct me.


http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/index.php?option=com_events&task=view_detail&agid=907&year=2011&month=01&day=07&Itemid=35

[DeanT]

We alerted players on the blog, via twitter etc that they were going to four day a weeks this week. We expect them to say "all is fine" more times moving forward because of the four day to five day comparisons (they did similar with Los Al last season when handle was dropping). We are also scanning people in the press to see if they are not being vigilant on it.

Sales "per store" of hamburgers would look pretty good for McDonald's if there were seven stores instead of 30,000.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2011/01/numbers.html

[Stillriledup]

He said its ok? Not Great?

Not amazing?

WAIT, i thought the takeout increase was supposed to pump up the purses, after all, nobody cares about takeout and there IS a new and fancy dirt track, why is handle just "ok"?

[Saratoga_Mike]

We alerted players on the blog, via twitter etc that they were going to four day a weeks this week. We expect them to say "all is fine" more times moving forward because of the four day to five day comparisons (they did similar with Los Al last season when handle was dropping). We are also scanning people in the press to see if they are not being vigilant on it.

Sales "per store" of hamburgers would look pretty good for McDonald's if there were seven stores instead of 30,000.
http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2011/01/numbers.html

I don't follow you here. You're assuming b/c they're moving to a four-day week they're going to handle the same amount or more as a five-day week? Is this b/c you expect fullier fields? I think I'm missing something, or is your post just sarcasm that went over my head?

[DeanT]

I don't follow you here. You're assuming b/c they're moving to a four-day week they're going to handle the same amount or more as a five-day week? Is this b/c you expect fullier fields? I think I'm missing something, or is your post just sarcasm that went over my head?

Number of races is a function of overall handle (i.e. the pie), but when looking at handle per race or per day, if you run one day a week versus seven, handle per race will sky.

This morning Caroline Betts, a professor of economics at USC ran some numbers from the Los Alamitos takeout hike (http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2010/12/effect-of-2010-los-alamitos-takeout.html). They are dreadful. Racedates were down, so there were less opportunities for racing participants, handle was down, and on-track handle was especially down. The racing shrunk.

The chart is self-explanatory - handle was killed.

Despite this obvious bad news, the CHRB earlier in the year talked about the numbers at a meeting and spoke of "handle per race" being up and that was the narrative they wanted to use.

Obviously this was a red herring, and with a little common sense we could figure it out:

1) Handle was down before they cut dates
2) Apples to apples standardized 4 day a week's which did occur, handle was down
3) Less dates means bigger fields and more betting opportunities - i.e. if I cut Woodbine to one day a week and had ten 14 horse fields, handle would certainly be up on a per day basis. Bigger bankrolls playing more betting interests.

So, a researched blogger would not take that at face value. He would look and do some digging.

If he did, he would further find out that Monmouth reduced dates like Los Al, but unlike them : overall handle was up.

"In 2009, the 141 T-bred race dates were split between Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands Racetrack, and, according to the brisnet.com report, total handle rang in at $354,867,156. In 2010, with nearly 50 per cent fewer race dates and racing consolidated at Monmouth, the total handle was $477,375,167."

This morning on the Paulick Report, Ray wrote an editorial talking about "handle per race", just like the CHRB talks about (http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/did-los-alamitos-takeout-increase-hurt-handle).

The story was not handle per race after hiking takeout, the story was that quarterhorse racing in 2010 after the takeout hike had less opportunities for racers, fewer customers, and smaller betting handles - exactly what we don't want in racing.

We need people to ask questions in racing, and do a little digging, or we will continue to give bad policy a pass.

This might have worked last year at Los Al, and they tried. This year there are people watching them like hawks. It's a good thing.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Number of races is a function of overall handle (i.e. the pie), but when looking at handle per race or per day, if you run one day a week versus seven, handle per race will sky.


This might have worked last year at Los Al, and they tried. This year there are people watching them like hawks. It's a good thing.

They're measuring their success on handle/race now? Has the meet been extended or will they be racing fewer days in total this meet vs a yr ago?

[toussaud]

they are racing more days becuase of the lost days last year because of the messed up track

[GaryG]

We alerted players on the blog, via twitter etc that they were going to four day a weeks this week.Their original schedule called for 4 days a week until the end of February. There has not been a change.

[jelly]

Steve Byk sat on his hands when Hammerle said handle was "OK".

We got no follow up question from Byk :faint:

[DeanT]

They're measuring their success on handle/race now?

Yes, that is what they did last year at Los Al. I assume they will try to do it now at SA.

Barry and Jeff got admonished in the meeting for bringing up the total handle numbers. The Los Al dude had all the time in the world for talking about "handle per race"

many dont know - if the Los Al takeout hike showed that racing shrunk, they were on record saying they would not extend it. Jeff and Barry showed handle was down (which it was, by about 27% on track and something like 17% overall), but they voted unanimously to not only extend it to September 1st, but to the end of the year.

CHRB meeting.

But what I’d like to point out is our handle per race this last couple of weeks is just about what it was the beginning of the year. The beginning of the year it was about $118,000 a race. Now it’s back to about $120,000 a race.

VICE CHAIRPERSON ISRAEL: So what you’ve been able to determine so far, the most important factor in determining handle and interest is the quality of the product, not the price of the product?

MR. ENGLISH: Yes. That’s correct. Perhaps more interesting, because it’s just like people pay extra money to see something in 3D --

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Right.

MR. ENGLISH: -- as opposed to regular theater.

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Right.

VICE CHAIRPERSON ISRAEL: So -- so quality is a much more important determining factor than pricing?

MR. ENGLISH: Correct.

VICE CHAIRPERSON ISRAEL: Okay.

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Okay.

MR. ENGLISH: Correct.

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Mr. Platt, who has brought his coffee to the table thinking he’s going to be here for some period of time, evidently. I’ve never seen anyone bring their coffee to the table before.

VICE CHAIRPERSON ISRAEL: That, and his computer.

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: But -- well, I hope you’re not watching a DVD in there or something. But anyway, please, sir, go ahead.

MR. PLATT: All right. Jeff Platt representing HANA.
I prepared a spreadsheet that’s very simple in nature. On one side it shows --

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Did you submit it to us?

MR. PLATT: I did submit it to you. It is part of the (meeting) package.

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Oh, it’s in the package. It’s not a separate one?

MR. PLATT: No.

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: No. Okay.

MR. PLATT: And I just want to summarize what --

CHAIRPERSON BRACKPOOL: Great.

MR. PLATT: -- what the spreadsheet is - On one side it is handle for 2009. On the other side is handle for 2010. The time period covered is from the start of the experiment through the end of June 2010.
During the time period of the experiment on-track handle went down 27 percent. I think it’s vitally important before you make your decision that you are acutely aware of the need to look at handle on a per calendar basis rather than just a per race basis. The people behind me have to pay their bills on a per calendar basis, not on a per race basis.



VOTES: Unanimous to extend takeout hike.

Apparently if you and I Steve open a track and we run three days a week and get $1M handle per day for $3M total, and the next year we run one day and get $1.1M in handle, our handle per day went up by 100k, so we are a huge success and we are growing horse racing.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Apparently if you and I Steve open a track and we run three days a week and get $1M handle per day for $3M total, and the next year we run one day and get $1.1M in handle, our handle per day went up by 100k, so we are a huge success and we are growing horse racing.

That's just about the stupidest thing I've ever heard, and keep in mind I read a lot of posts on this board.

[Jeff P]

That's just about the stupidest thing I've ever heard, and keep in mind I read a lot of posts on this board.

And yet that's exactly the logic they used when they voted unanimously to extend the Los Al takeout increase.


-jp

.

[Stillriledup]

And yet that's exactly the ILLlogic they used when they voted unanimously to extend the Los Al takeout increase.


-jp

.

Fixed that for you.

[DeanT]

I have to fix something - how half the time I call Mike "Mike" and the other half I call him "Steve"

Sorry Mike/Steve. Been a long week.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I have to fix something - how half the time I call Mike "Mike" and the other half I call him "Steve"

Sorry Mike/Steve. Been a long week.

I missed this - I'm belatedly offended. Okay, not really at all, but thanks for the apology.

[chickenhead]

I'd hate to see a bad week.

[Zman179]

Of course Hammerle was going to say "handle was ok", otherwise he'd be admitting that he was wrong.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

$5.1m today 8 races compared to 8 races last year corresponding Friday $6.3m

[letswastemoney]

What effect does the closure of the NYC OTB have on this?

[Dahoss9698]

What effect does the closure of the NYC OTB have on this?

Probably a lot. Sort of surprised it hasn't been brought up here before now.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

$5.1m today 8 races compared to 8 races last year corresponding Friday $6.3m
They dropped 20% of their dates, so a 20% handle reduction should be expected :p

But seriously, it appears they made a very bad business decision. I don't understand why they don't stop the bleeding.

Horseplayers were obviously playing more because they HAD some of the lowest takeouts in the land. Now that edge is gone.

[Zman179]

What effect does the closure of the NYC OTB have on this?

Not as much as you would think, otherwise Tampa would be suffering too...and they're having a great meet so far. NYCOTB would lose about a third of their patrons as soon as NYRA finished.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Not as much as you would think, otherwise Tampa
would be suffering too...and they're having a great meet so far.



Correct. :ThmbUp:
I find it interesting that they keep blaming "the weather back east".

Since it is significant that Santa Anita realizes that California racing
if of national importance, perhaps they can send out a memo to Hollywood Park
and curtail their ridiculous night cards at end at 1:30 am Eastern time.

[Dahoss9698]

Not as much as you would think, otherwise Tampa would be suffering too...and they're having a great meet so far. NYCOTB would lose about a third of their patrons as soon as NYRA finished.

Tampa runs at the same time as NYRA does. By the time NYRA finishes, Santa Anita still has 7 races to go.

[Jeff P]

Keep in mind that last year, due to a signal dispute, the Mid Atlantic Co-op wasn't taking Santa Anita's signal and this year they are.

-jp

.

[mountainman]

The handle could drop to 20 bucks a race and the arrogant, short-sighted people who pushed for the skim hike would never admit that the increase was ill-advised, or that the boycott had hurt business. Instead, they will continue to spin unless and until bad press about their bad decision brings pressure to bear from the people they answer to. Thus, in my opinion, not only must the boycott demonstrably hurt handle, but prominent members of the press must rub management's nose in it-otherwise refusing to play Santa Anita will prove noble, but in vain. I think that someday this boycott will be celebrated not for effecting change-because it's a longshot to do that-but as the first tentative step towards horseplayers demanding a voice. Bravo.

[BillW]

Correct. :ThmbUp:
I find it interesting that they keep blaming "the weather back east".


Are you sure the "Weather back East" that they are blaming isn't the nice weather on the West coast of Fla.? :lol:

[rrpic6]

The handle could drop to 20 bucks a race and the arrogant, short-sighted people who pushed for the skim hike would never admit that the increase was ill-advised, or that the boycott had hurt business. Instead, they will continue to spin unless and until bad press about their bad decision brings pressure to bear from the people they answer to. Thus, in my opinion, not only must the boycott demonstrably hurt handle, but prominent members of the press must rub management's nose in it-otherwise refusing to play Santa Anita will prove noble, but in vain. I think that someday this boycott will be celebrated not for effecting change-because it's a longshot to do that-but as the first tentative step towards horseplayers demanding a voice. Bravo.
Nice to see an insider come aboard the big Anti-Santa Anita 2011 train! I've been bombarding www.santaanita.com with e-mails to Ric Hammerly. I've gotten no response of course, but we all know that guy has been having some sleepless nights.
RR

PS. Clicked on your webpage Mark. Great bits and pieces. I remember Down Hill Harry. I think he ran around 1990, but I did not know Nancy trained him.

[Stillriledup]

The handle could drop to 20 bucks a race and the arrogant, short-sighted people who pushed for the skim hike would never admit that the increase was ill-advised, or that the boycott had hurt business. Instead, they will continue to spin unless and until bad press about their bad decision brings pressure to bear from the people they answer to. Thus, in my opinion, not only must the boycott demonstrably hurt handle, but prominent members of the press must rub management's nose in it-otherwise refusing to play Santa Anita will prove noble, but in vain. I think that someday this boycott will be celebrated not for effecting change-because it's a longshot to do that-but as the first tentative step towards horseplayers demanding a voice. Bravo.

Way to bring it! Have a take and Don't suck and you DID. JUST. THAT. Jim Rome would be proud!

[highnote]

Mark,

Mountaineer is my all-time favorite track. I grew up near there and believe it or not I'm ahead lifetime there! I visit whenever I'm home for the holidays.

Always enjoy your commentary, too! Some of the best in the biz.

That said, any idea when slot tracks are going to start lowering takeout?

Purses are being subsidized by slot players -- why shouldn't some of that subsidy result in lower takeout?

Lower takeout at Mountaineer should result in higher handle which should result in larger purses which should mean less slot money would be needed to subsidize purses. Right?



The handle could drop to 20 bucks a race and the arrogant, short-sighted people who pushed for the skim hike would never admit that the increase was ill-advised, or that the boycott had hurt business. Instead, they will continue to spin unless and until bad press about their bad decision brings pressure to bear from the people they answer to. Thus, in my opinion, not only must the boycott demonstrably hurt handle, but prominent members of the press must rub management's nose in it-otherwise refusing to play Santa Anita will prove noble, but in vain. I think that someday this boycott will be celebrated not for effecting change-because it's a longshot to do that-but as the first tentative step towards horseplayers demanding a voice. Bravo.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Where's Dean? He promised me handle would be up with a shortened week. According to the pool statistics from Equibase, handle was down 17.6% today (Saturday 1/8/11) against the yr ago comparison (Saturday 1/9/10).

[jelly]

The handle could drop to 20 bucks a race and the arrogant, short-sighted people who pushed for the skim hike would never admit that the increase was ill-advised, or that the boycott had hurt business. Instead, they will continue to spin unless and until bad press about their bad decision brings pressure to bear from the people they answer to. Thus, in my opinion, not only must the boycott demonstrably hurt handle, but prominent members of the press must rub management's nose in it-otherwise refusing to play Santa Anita will prove noble, but in vain. I think that someday this boycott will be celebrated not for effecting change-because it's a longshot to do that-but as the first tentative step towards horseplayers demanding a voice. Bravo.



Getting a fair shake from the media is a longshot.


The horse racing media seems to be a joke.

[jelly]

Where's Dean? He promised me handle would be up with a shortened week. According to the pool statistics from Equibase, handle was down 17.6% today (Saturday 1/8/11) against the yr ago comparison (Saturday 1/9/10).



Let say the handle is down 15% for the meet(very possible)

Now lets say the handle goes down another 15% next year(i'd bet on it)

Where does that put California racing?how does it survive?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Let say the handle is down 15% for the meet(very possible)

Now lets say the handle goes down another 15% next year(i'd bet on it)

Where does that put California racing?how does it survive?

They'll just go to a three-day meet!

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Where does that put California racing?how does it survive?

Saturday racing only

15 races each day

Minimum field size at least 10

20% WPS takeout 25% all other bets

Handle per day will be way up and CHRB, TOC, CTT, will be the smartest people on planet.

[Stillriledup]

Saturday racing only

15 races each day

Minimum field size at least 10

20% WPS takeout 25% all other bets

Handle per day will be way up and CHRB, TOC, CTT, will be the smartest people on planet.

Wait! They're the smartest people on the planet NOW, just ask them.

[toussaud]

They'll just go to a three-day meet!

You know... seriously.. it would not be the worst thing on earth if California ran 6 days a week and they alternated days, no cal and so cal. seriously. I could jive with that.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You know... seriously.. it would not be the worst thing on earth if California ran 6 days a week and they alternated days, no cal and so cal. seriously. I could jive with that.

You might just get nominated to the CHRB!

[jelly]

They'll just go to a three-day meet!


How many trainers/Owners would leave if they went to three days?

[mountainman]

PS. Clicked on your webpage Mark. Great bits and pieces. I remember Down Hill Harry. I think he ran around 1990, but I did not know Nancy trained him.

Thanks pal, that means a lot coming from a handicapper of your caliber. Did you check out the vampire story?

[Stillriledup]

Thanks pal, that means a lot coming from a handicapper of your caliber. Did you check out the vampire story?

Yes Mark, excellent stuff, Pic6 is right on with his comment.

[Tom]

You might just get nominated to the CHRB!

Ineligible - too smart.

[mountainman]

Yes Mark, excellent stuff, Pic6 is right on with his comment.

I'm honored that you took time to read it. Thanks very much.

[Stillriledup]

I'm honored that you took time to read it. Thanks very much.

No problem, any time, keep up the great work!

[Zman179]

I'm honored that you took time to read it. Thanks very much.

I just read it for the first time. I haven't had such an entertaining read about horse racing's happenings since Clyde Hirt would publish his "Impertinent Questions" column in Sports Eye; your blog is almost a mirror of his old style. :ThmbUp:

[mountainman]

I just read it for the first time. I haven't had such an entertaining read about horse racing's happenings since Clyde Hirt would publish his "Impertinent Questions" column in Sports Eye; your blog is almost a mirror of his old style. :ThmbUp:
Tx Z. That piece was particularly fun to write and so well-received that I'll probably make the format a recurrent one. But opinionating is easy, and I'm no Clyde Hirt.

[usedtolovetvg]

Simplifying things there are 3 types of horse players. The casual fan who attends the races a few times a year. They are $2 bettors and are totally unaffected by the takeout. They go a few times a year and could care less whether they win or lose. They have little effect on handle. We all started out this way. The next step up is to take up racing as a hobby. They embrace racing as a hobby but do not care about the implications of the takeout. What they are unaware of is how their new hobby is affected by churn. Over time, with increased takeout, they will find that they have a few less dollars in their pockets and that may, or may not, impact their visits to the track. The serious horse player, the driving force behind the industry, is in the game to make money. They understand the implications of increased takeout. Making a dollar or two less because of increased take out on a $2 bet will equate to $50 or $100 less with a $50 or $100 winning bet. This is the only group that understands the effects. Increased take out affects all players. But, because the serious player is the only one looking at this as a business they are the only group that truly understands its implications.

[Stillriledup]

Simplifying things there are 3 types of horse players. The casual fan who attends the races a few times a year. They are $2 bettors and are totally unaffected by the takeout. They go a few times a year and could care less whether they win or lose. They have little effect on handle. We all started out this way. The next step up is to take up racing as a hobby. They embrace racing as a hobby but do not care about the implications of the takeout. What they are unaware of is how their new hobby is affected by churn. Over time, with increased takeout, they will find that they have a few less dollars in their pockets and that may, or may not, impact their visits to the track. The serious horse player, the driving force behind the industry, is in the game to make money. They understand the implications of increased takeout. Making a dollar or two less because of increased take out on a $2 bet will equate to $50 or $100 less with a $50 or $100 winning bet. This is the only group that understands the effects. Increased take out affects all players. But, because the serious player is the only one looking at this as a business they are the only group that truly understands its implications.


Excellent post.

I think as time goes on, and people get smarter, and the technology is there at your fingertips, it will be harder and harder for tracks to just pull the wool over the eyes of their customers. There are still people in their 50s and 60s who have never turned on a computer before, have never heard of Twitter and don't know takeout from shmakeout. But, as time goes on and these dinosaurs are replaced by the poker genx, you have one person who doesnt know takeout to a person who does know takeout.

Every minute that passes by, is one minute closer to the tracks losing that customer they are counting on to help them survive...the person who doesnt know what takeout is and how it affects them. Those days are winding down, sooner rather than later, everyone will know about takeout and a higher percentage of people will be internet savvy than ever before.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxDmsJftkjw&feature=related

[Saratoga_Mike]

I thought the shortened week at SA was suppose to bolster daily y/y handle comparisons? Has it not started yet? This past Saturday and Sunday were down 17.6% and 29.9%, respectively (against the same yr-ago weekend), according to Equibase data. The down 30% may have been the worst showing for the meet yet, but I'm not sure of that.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I thought the shortened week at SA was suppose to bolster daily y/y handle comparisons? Has it not started yet? This past Saturday and Sunday were down 17.6% and 29.9%, respectively (against the same yr-ago weekend), according to Equibase data. The down 30% may have been the worst showing for the meet yet, but I'm not sure of that.
I didn't see it being down 30% yesterday. I thought they did around $6.5 yesterday and $7 million the year before.

But you are right, a reduction in dates should at least have led to them breaking even at the very least in daily handle or per race handle.

It must be the way the stars are aligned, or the trade deficit with China.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I didn't see it being down 30% yesterday. I thought they did around $6.5 yesterday and $7 million the year before.

But you are right, a reduction in dates should at least have led to them breaking even at the very least in daily handle or per race handle.

It must be the way the stars are aligned, or the trade deficit with China.

Sorry, I was wrong - pulled up the wrong historical chart. Your compares are correct. I thought down 30% looked a little much. Thanks.

[jelly]

Anyone know how much SA is down year to year so far?

[andymays]

Anyone know how much SA is down year to year so far?

Somewhere between 15% and 20%. It's hard to be exact.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Anyone know how much SA is down year to year so far?

"So far" is the key phrase.

I'm sure in a couple weeks......they'll be full fields in each race from the purse increases......horses will have current dirt form so bettors will bet with both hands......bettors will adapt to the takeout raise by reducing their exotic play but quadrupling their WPS handle......The economy will improve.....bettors will flock back to the track now that the Lakers are struggling and aren't as entertaining to watch.


It will only be a few days until handle is skyrocketing.

[Stillriledup]

"So far" is the key phrase.

I'm sure in a couple weeks......they'll be full fields in each race from the purse increases......horses will have current dirt form so bettors will bet with both hands......bettors will adapt to the takeout raise by reducing their exotic play but quadrupling their WPS handle......The economy will improve.....bettors will flock back to the track now that the Lakers are struggling and aren't as entertaining to watch.


It will only be a few days until handle is skyrocketing.

But what if its cold and rainy on the east coast, i mean, won't that be a valid excuse for people to 'forget' to bet SA? After all, very few players have phone/internet accounts, so most of them will stay home in bad weather, thus, preventing Santa Anita from making max money.

Know what i'm sayin? ;)

[Robert Fischer]

REAL 3 types of players

ADDICTS: "ENTERTAINMENT PLAYERS" The majority of the player population. Their piece of the POOLSIZE pie is decreasing. Their main relationship as customers is to subsidize the large-churn players. Their only effect to the cause of takeout variations is a mathematical relation regarding churn and their access to disposable income. The seasonal fans get thrown into this group unless they qualify for one of the other 2.

FOR-PROFIT SMALL-CHURN: These geniuses and hardheads buck the grain and play for a profit. They respond to VALUE. Their formula is like that of the ADDICTS, but VALUE is added to the equation. These guys currently aren't a driving force in the market (A.K.A. they don't matter). Some strive to become large-churn, some leave, some become addicts.

LARGE-CHURN: These are the Most Valuable Players and are treated as such. While they are a minority(regarding population), they represent an increasingly growing importance to the House. Their importance earns them important concessions including ability to mathematically play certain wagers, rebates, rules. These players play the real game. These are the only players worth catering to by the track.

[jelly]

I find it amusing that Bloodhorse mentions Gulfstream handle is up but doesn't mention anything about the Santa Anita handle.What gives?


Gulfstream: Total Handle Up 17.2% Thus Far

Santa Anita :Total handle ?????????


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/60685/gulfstream-total-handle-up-172-thus-far

[The_Knight_Sky]

I find it amusing that Bloodhorse mentions Gulfstream handle is up
but doesn't mention anything about the Santa Anita handle.What gives?




Proprietary Knowledge.

Seems to be a lot of that going around.

http://i55.tinypic.com/j6jyuw.gif And a paucity of emoticon usage, also.