Fun methods

[dav4463]

I'm a sucker for trying out "paper and pencil" methods. I like to read them. I like to try them out on paper or with "fun" money if you are just out for a non-serious night of racing. Here is one that would be interesting to test. It has stretches where it has hit some nice exactas.

Rank the horses by last race Beyer figure 1-8.

Between rank 1 and 2....make the highest m/l horse your "A"

Between ranks 3,4, and 5....second highest m/l is your "B", high m/l is your "C"

Between ranks 6,7,8.....low m/l is your "D"


If two horses have the same m/l odds, use jockey win% as tiebreaker.

Toss any horse off of a year layoff and do not use a horse with a trainer or jockey that has a 4% or lower record (at least 15 races)....

3 month or longer layoff....move horse down in ranking....example "A" horse has a 3 month layoff....B,C, and D do not....move "A" horse down to the "D" spot.

Play exacta: AB w ABCD

[PhantomOnTour]

I've cashed on the following angle out of pure boredom and needing an action play:

Any horse with 3 wins showing in his pp's (max 10 races) and odds at 9-1 or more is a play. Avoid long layoffs, ofcourse.

[RaceBookJoe]

When i first started i was always tinkering with systems...and loved to focus on the odds. Two systems i messed around with went like this :

1: Horse must be going up in class, but todays odds are half of what they were in the lower class race.

2. Horse cut in odds last out but lost...ie 2 races back he was 12-1 , last out he was 4-1. today he is the play if he has a good jockey. rbj

[dav4463]

Horse must be 10/1 or higher on the morning line.

Add best two of last three speed figures....Horse must rank in top half of field.

Jockey win % must be in top half of field

Trainer win % must be in top half of field


Best Win/Place

[dav4463]

Hot jockey play.

Jockey 20% + wins for current meet (at least 20 races)

go through the races and find his best (in your opinion) mount of the day.....Bet to win.

[newtothegame]

I'm a sucker for trying out "paper and pencil" methods. I like to read them. I like to try them out on paper or with "fun" money if you are just out for a non-serious night of racing. Here is one that would be interesting to test. It has stretches where it has hit some nice exactas.

Rank the horses by last race Beyer figure 1-8.

Between rank 1 and 2....make the highest m/l horse your "A"

Between ranks 3,4, and 5....second highest m/l is your "B", high m/l is your "C"

Between ranks 6,7,8.....low m/l is your "D"


If two horses have the same m/l odds, use jockey win% as tiebreaker.

Toss any horse off of a year layoff and do not use a horse with a trainer or jockey that has a 4% or lower record (at least 15 races)....

3 month or longer layoff....move horse down in ranking....example "A" horse has a 3 month layoff....B,C, and D do not....move "A" horse down to the "D" spot.

Play exacta: AB w ABCD

Dav....Just for sh!ts and giggles....I worked this out for a FG race tomorrow....
race 2
If I understood it correctly, I came up with
7,8/7,8,6,1
the 5 horse would of been "D" but he was right at 3 months (1 day short) so I tossed him.
If I worked properly, lets see how it plays on one race.....
Of course I understand that one race does not prove anything but you did mention FUN!
I have a question or two though.....
What happens if coupled entries exist...same m/l , same jock listed?
And what happens in case of short fields like only 6 horses? Seems ya need larger fields...correct?

[dav4463]

At least 7 horses. If a coupled entry; I guess figure them separately and see if only one qualifies.

Here is another variance on the same method. Instead of using morning line.....try it this way too:

Rank by Last Race Beyer figure 1 through 8

Rank 1,2.....take best jockey
Rank 3,4,5....take two best jockeys
Rank 6,7,8....take best jockey

It gives you four horses....rank in the order selected above.

If any horse is off a layoff (any layoff, not just 3 months+)....drop him down in the rankings. If two or more are off a layoff....rank them by who has the shortest layoff.

If jockeys win % are within 3 points of each other....keep best Beyer horse in.....completely eliminate any year+ layoff horse.....completely eliminate any trainer below 5% wins in at least 15 races.

3 Month layoff....if you have a choice between two jockeys and one horse is off a 3 month or longer layoff....keep Best Beyer horse in unless jockey win % is below 5%



I like this method better than the m/l method.

[salty]

When I first started playing I had one easy method requiring just the entry sheet and the yearly trainer and jocky stats.

1. take the top ten jockeys and ten trainers
2. Number them 1 through 10
3. take out the entry sheet
4. go through and attach the number to the corresponding jock/trainer

Now i decided that if a jockey was in the top 3 and the horses trainer was also in the top 3 then that would be a key horse and put it over two or three horses that had a top jock/trainer depending on the rank.
so
#1 jock / #3 trainer Over
#3 jock / non top trainer, #4 jock / #4 trainer, nontop jock / #1 trainer

or i would just take the top three and box them

When i did this i bet every race on a card at aqueduct with a few 3 horse boxes, a couple key plays, and due to scratches some 2 horse boxing and straight plays. i added a couple extra dollars to the latter. I put in about 75 and got back 110. Or something similar to that.

[dav4463]

Note: Be sure to re-figure the race if there are scratches are also-eligilbles in...it will change the rankings.

You may also want to limit play to only the combinations that show a payoff of $30 or higher.

Play AB w ABCD exacta.




I just did a few of these on old racing forms and as with all methods at first try.......it is working! Let's see if it will continue! So far, the jockey method has far outperformed the m/l method.

[dav4463]

When I first started playing I had one easy method requiring just the entry sheet and the yearly trainer and jocky stats.

1. take the top ten jockeys and ten trainers
2. Number them 1 through 10
3. take out the entry sheet
4. go through and attach the number to the corresponding jock/trainer

Now i decided that if a jockey was in the top 3 and the horses trainer was also in the top 3 then that would be a key horse and put it over two or three horses that had a top jock/trainer depending on the rank.
so
#1 jock / #3 trainer Over
#3 jock / non top trainer, #4 jock / #4 trainer, nontop jock / #1 trainer

or i would just take the top three and box them

When i did this i bet every race on a card at aqueduct with a few 3 horse boxes, a couple key plays, and due to scratches some 2 horse boxing and straight plays. i added a couple extra dollars to the latter. I put in about 75 and got back 110. Or something similar to that.


I'll take 110 for 75 any day!

[salty]

Its amazing to think i did better when i had no idea what i was doing, But only on those days that i'm losing.

[llegend39]

Simply bet the race # to place- #1 in race #1, #2 in race #2 ETC>-would have cashed 6 times at TAM on Friday!

[Snag]

Try this one:

Your pick # plus the horse that makes the total equal 13 and box in the Exacta

Your Pick #3 Other Horse 10
Your Pick #4 Other Horse 9
Your Pick #5 Other Horse 8
etc..........

[newtothegame]

Try this one:

Your pick # plus the horse that makes the total equal 13 and box in the Exacta

Your Pick #3 Other Horse 10
Your Pick #4 Other Horse 9
Your Pick #5 Other Horse 8
etc..........

With the lowest possible numbers being 6 and 7...so much for cali tracks lol :lol:

[Capper Al]

I like paper and pencil systems also. Here's a quickie:

(Each horse must have 3 starts.)

Figure each horse's best Speed figure for the last 2 races. Eliminate the bottom half.
Next eliminate any horse with 15/1 or higher odds in the morning line.
Then sort the remaining horses by trainer's win percent. The top trainer in the remaining group is your top pick, followed by the second etc.

[dav4463]

I like paper and pencil systems also. Here's a quickie:

(Each horse must have 3 starts.)

Figure each horse's best Speed figure for the last 2 races. Eliminate the bottom half.
Next eliminate any horse with 15/1 or higher odds in the morning line.
Then sort the remaining horses by trainer's win percent. The top trainer in the remaining group is your top pick, followed by the second etc.



How about doing the same thing, except combine the trainer win % with the jockey win % ? ....probably too chalky huh?

[dav4463]

At least 7 horses. If a coupled entry; I guess figure them separately and see if only one qualifies.

Here is another variance on the same method. Instead of using morning line.....try it this way too:

Rank by Last Race Beyer figure 1 through 8

Rank 1,2.....take best jockey
Rank 3,4,5....take two best jockeys
Rank 6,7,8....take best jockey

It gives you four horses....rank in the order selected above.

If any horse is off a layoff (any layoff, not just 3 months+)....drop him down in the rankings. If two or more are off a layoff....rank them by who has the shortest layoff.

If jockeys win % are within 3 points of each other....keep best Beyer horse in.....completely eliminate any year+ layoff horse.....completely eliminate any trainer below 5% wins in at least 15 races.

3 Month layoff....if you have a choice between two jockeys and one horse is off a 3 month or longer layoff....keep Best Beyer horse in unless jockey win % is below 5%



I like this method better than the m/l method.


I hate to quote myself, but I was past the time limit to edit. I left out something that can be kind of important:

If jockeys win % are within 3 points of each other....keep best Beyer horse in.....

This should say keep best Beyer horse in ...IF you believe he is a much better horse...I would say at least an eight point edge on the last race Beyer....otherwise just play the high percentage jockey....If percentages are within 1 or 2%..check the current meet or year and go with the hot jockey if he +5% on the other with a similar record....if you have trouble separating the jockeys and just can't decide....then just go with the top Beyer horse.

[Capper Al]

How about doing the same thing, except combine the trainer win % with the jockey win % ? ....probably too chalky huh?

You're right. The extra effort doesn't pay. Adding two numbers can at times be work or an opportunity to error.

[fmolf]

newcomers and infrequent race goers can do well with this one...basically it is for the newest of the novices.bet either the winning jockey of last race and if he is top 3 jock bet him all the way thru the card.....or use the last race pp winner and betit in the next race.

[Capper Al]

There is one ammendment to step #2:

If there is a full field with 10 or more horses, you might want to use 20/1 as your minimum odds. The idea is not to eliminate more than 2 or 3 horses with this rule unless it is the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses.

I like paper and pencil systems also. Here's a quickie:

(Each horse must have 3 starts.)

Figure each horse's best Speed figure for the last 2 races. Eliminate the bottom half.
Next eliminate any horse with 15/1 or higher odds in the morning line.
Then sort the remaining horses by trainer's win percent. The top trainer in the remaining group is your top pick, followed by the second etc.

[jsk42069]

I love this forum.. I will try some of the methods in this thread for sure. Here is something I came up with and actually carry in my wallet whenever I need to handicap a unfamiliar race I break it out and spin through this.

1.) Make arrows for drops in class and 2 for big drops
2.) Check for 1st time blinkers or 1st time lasix (highlight or put star by)
3.) Check for favorite but did not win last time out
4.) Look for Bullets and 5 furlong workout
5.) Look if a horse had an excuse last raced liked blocked in or stumbled start.. (scratch this race out so its not a factor in your handicapping for this race)
6.) Look @ prior odds see if its been good odds @ this class or higher before.
7.) Top Jockey make a notation
8.) Look at speed ratings and make notes of the highest ones and also single out horses that are consistently higher than its competition for this race.
9.) look for distance its used to

On each of these points I look at my form and make notes on each point. By the time I am through with 9 I will see some horses that really light up and markings show its the one to beat!!

I love Horse Racing!!!! :D

[dav4463]

I love this forum.. I will try some of the methods in this thread for sure. Here is something I came up with and actually carry in my wallet whenever I need to handicap a unfamiliar race I break it out and spin through this.

1.) Make arrows for drops in class and 2 for big drops
2.) Check for 1st time blinkers or 1st time lasix (highlight or put star by)
3.) Check for favorite but did not win last time out
4.) Look for Bullets and 5 furlong workout
5.) Look if a horse had an excuse last raced liked blocked in or stumbled start.. (scratch this race out so its not a factor in your handicapping for this race)
6.) Look @ prior odds see if its been good odds @ this class or higher before.
7.) Top Jockey make a notation
8.) Look at speed ratings and make notes of the highest ones and also single out horses that are consistently higher than its competition for this race.
9.) look for distance its used to

On each of these points I look at my form and make notes on each point. By the time I am through with 9 I will see some horses that really light up and markings show its the one to beat!!

I love Horse Racing!!!! :D


I love this stuff! This is a good one. You make quick notes of factors you like and then see which one is all marked up!

[Capper Al]

Has anyone tried or tested any of these methods posted? One may be surprised at the good results some of these might give.

[BeatTheChalk]

Any system I have ever checked -- Always wins the First time : - )

[Irish Boy]

Any system I have ever checked -- Always wins the First time : - )
Just keep changing systems, then. You'll never lose.

[Robert Goren]

An oldie. Take the weight. add the M/L. add the PP. bet the low number.

[CBedo]

An oldie. Take the weight. add the M/L. add the PP. bet the low number.This is awesome! I might have to do a database run.

[Robert Fischer]

pick 3 fun method
for each race
CIRCLE THE:


TOP % TRAINER
M/L FAVORITE
BEST LAST RACE BEYER
As many as 3 horses for each race
IF THE SAME HORSE IS TOP RANKED IN MORE THAN ONE OF THE ABOVE, USE LESS THAN 3 HORSES(ie same horse for 2 categories 2 horses, same horse all categories SINGLE)

[dartman51]

I like paper and pencil systems also. Here's a quickie:

(Each horse must have 3 starts.)


Figure each horse's best Speed figure for the last 2 races. Eliminate the bottom half.
Next eliminate any horse with 15/1 or higher odds in the morning line.
Then sort the remaining horses by trainer's win percent. The top trainer in the remaining group is your top pick, followed by the second etc.



Does EVERY horse in the race have to have 3 starts, or just the horses to be considered? :confused:

[atlasaxis]

Circle top 4 win % jocks and trainers in each race. Play when single entrant has 2 circles and going off > 4-1 @ pt.

[BIG HIT]

When frist started playing.Subtract 1 pound from last race spd fig for each pound more carrying today compared to last race.Add 1pound to last race spd fig for every pound less carrying today.Fast horse is play also probably had recency date last race started playing in 1968 14 day last race.But the hart was add or subtract

[Aner]

Look to see if any horses are exiting the same last race as the morning line favorite. If they were 2 lengths or closer to the MLF at the finish, play to win if you can get 4:1 or more. If they were within 5 lengths, play to win if odds are 10:1 plus. Greater than 5 lengths, pass.

[windoor]

An oldie from the Seventies and Charlestown.

Look at last two speed rates and variant. Take best Speed rate and highest variant and add together. Make adjustments for pounds on or off, one point per pound. High number is play.

To make it a spot play, last race must have the highest variant number of last three starts and be over 24 or highest in race. If still the highest overall number of others=play.

Regards,

Windoor

[Capper Al]

Does EVERY horse in the race have to have 3 starts, or just the horses to be considered? :confused:

Every horse has to have at least 3 starts.

[Cholly]

I believe it was Ainslie who said, “Allowance and claiming races are for betting; stakes races are for watching”. That axiom holds true for me. I won’t hesitate to invest hours of study and 2X my net worth on a $10K-n2l claimer. But the last stakes race I cashed a ticket based on my handicapping was Skip Away/Deputy Commander in the ’97 Breeder’s Cup, which happens to be the most obvious $25.00 exacta in the history of mankind. Even Ray Charles could see that one coming.

I love to watch the big races, but it’s been years since I’ve bothered to handicap one. However, I’ve noticed that on Breeder’s Cup Day, and other days with inscrutable races like the Derby undercard, there’s usually a stakes race or two where long-shots grab both spots of an exacta paying bongo-bucks. I chase these with your conventional 3-horse exacta box, constructed thusly:

First toss the 3 (or 4) horses with the lowest odds. Of the ones remaining, draw a line through their last two races, and circle the one with the best race three back. Sometimes shit happens; sometimes shit happens twice in a row.

Of the ones still remaining, ignore the horses and pick a trainer/jockey combo you like. For the third horse in the box, grab a deck of cards; shuffle twice and cut once.

With only sixty seconds and six dollars invested, I can enjoy the race however it turns out. And in those occasional cases that my bet hits, I thump my chest and yell out, “I’m glad God made me handsome and lucky instead of smart.”

[Irish Boy]

I couldn't disagree more, at least for me. I've had my biggest scores on stakes races or multi-race bets where stakes were included.

[Capper Al]

Any system I have ever checked -- Always wins the First time : - )

Why is this so? They work on paper then they work for a couple of days and then they die. Can't explain it.

[cnollfan]

Oaklawn is the meet I follow most closely. After the season was over I went back to see what kind of races my winners had been in. Maiden Claiming dominated, followed by open claiming, restricted claiming, allowance, stake and MSW. Starter Allowances were 0-fer.