WHAT WOULD U THINK

[teddy]

What would you think about someone looking at races where the favorite was bet below even money but his performance fig was average at best against the field... third ranking in most software. The thinking is someone is betting him hard for a reason. Similar to the ODD MAN OUT play. My friend swears by it, allthough its flying in the face of reason. Its an underlay !! He plays them to show. I dont get it personally.

[cj]

I looked it up using my numbers. Horses that have no better than the 3rd last out figure on dirt, and are even money or less win about 42% of the time. The ROI is pretty poor, returning around 73 cents per dollar wagered.

All favorites that are no better than 3rd rated on dirt win about 30%, and return about 77 cents on the dollar.

[teddy]

YES , this is the basis for my chalk plays.... to exclude them... not sure what else hes doing but the prognosis is chilly.

Im guessing it has to have some huge bet at some time in the cycle.

[CBedo]

I looked it up using my numbers. Horses that have no better than the 3rd last out figure on dirt, and are even money or less win about 42% of the time. The ROI is pretty poor, returning around 73 cents per dollar wagered.

All favorites that are no better than 3rd rated on dirt win about 30%, and return about 77 cents on the dollar.What's the win percentage of the ones who have best figure and are even money or less?

[cj]

I should have mentioned these stats do not include maiden races.

For even money or less, top dirt figure, I have 54% winners returning about 90 cents on the dollar.

[teddy]

The stats for those favs with the best figs are pretty good if you pick and choose. I cant give an exact figure because of my complex plays, but if you whittle it down to under 5 plays a day you should be fairly profitable. In any wager...place or show. Thats why what hes doing flys in the face of logic. My own plays were 1.50 as posted.

[Tom]

But, they do top exactas 42% of the time, and how often do they fill in the bottom? Not betting them to win is smart, but they will still be around to haunt you.

[CBedo]

I'm not a big tri player, but have always thought trifectas were a good spot to get a bit more value for those solid favorites, but only on top. Seems people love to box tris and always use the favorite, so get slightly better than expected on top, and underlaid when favorite runs 2nd or 3rd.

[Exotic1]

Cj,

You mentioned "last out" in your query. Can you expand the top figure search to include the last 3 dirt races of each entrant?

[thaskalos]

Cj,

You mentioned "last out" in your query. Can you expand the top figure search to include the last 3 dirt races of each entrant?Or at least, the last 2?

[cj]

Cj,

You mentioned "last out" in your query. Can you expand the top figure search to include the last 3 dirt races of each entrant?

I can, but it will be a few days. I'm in the middle of heavy programming adding a second pace figure to each running line.