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bigga 1
01-06-2011, 10:18 AM
In what kind of races would find the best overlays? :eek:

Overlay
01-06-2011, 02:30 PM
I don't think that the public (despite its remarkable overall accuracy in setting odds) will ever reach the point of being absolutely correct about every horse or combination in every race. However, generally speaking, I'd say that the larger the field, or the more evenly matched the horses (whether good or bad), the greater would be the chance of significant (from a betting standpoint) collective misjudgment about one or more entrants.

Even in small fields with standout favorites, the public may go overboard on the most likely winner, making other horses overlays by default, but I would hesitate to bet against a truly superior horse in those circumstances, especially if there was no clear challenger among the rest of the horses in the field.

Greyfox
01-06-2011, 02:38 PM
- large fields with false favorites
(false favorites are differentiated from vulnerable favorites.)

xfile
01-06-2011, 02:50 PM
Overlay Preferred Races
All Maiden Claiming Races
All Maiden Special Weight Races
All Claiming races with a condition (Ex nw2l, nw3l, nw4l, b, y, etc)
All bottom and low level claiming races
All races run over the turf
All races over a wet track (Sloppy, Muddy, etc)

bigga 1
01-06-2011, 03:01 PM
Overlay Preferred Races
All Maiden Claiming Races
All Maiden Special Weight Races
All Claiming races with a condition (Ex nw2l, nw3l, nw4l, b, y, etc)
All bottom and low level claiming races
All races run over the turf
All races over a wet track (Sloppy, Muddy, etc)


I think you nailed that one dead on,i think the off tracks i will stay away.Just needed coformation......Thanks.............. :jump:

bigga 1
01-06-2011, 03:09 PM
Overlay Preferred Races
All Maiden Claiming Races
All Maiden Special Weight Races
All Claiming races with a condition (Ex nw2l, nw3l, nw4l, b, y, etc)
All bottom and low level claiming races
All races run over the turf
All races over a wet track (Sloppy, Muddy, etc)


When you approach anyone of these races is there some sort of a blue print that you follow to make your handicapping process fundamentally sound.

Overlay
01-06-2011, 03:24 PM
Overlay Preferred Races
All Maiden Claiming Races
All Maiden Special Weight Races
All Claiming races with a condition (Ex nw2l, nw3l, nw4l, b, y, etc)
All bottom and low level claiming races
All races run over the turf
All races over a wet track (Sloppy, Muddy, etc)


I think you nailed that one dead on,i think the off tracks i will stay away.Just needed coformation......Thanks.............. :jump:

Why would you want to stay away from races/situations where overlays are more likely to occur?

xfile
01-06-2011, 03:54 PM
When you approach anyone of these races is there some sort of a blue print that you follow to make your handicapping process fundamentally sound.
I look for the best likely overlay of the true contenders. With 'Conditional Wagering' at Twinspires I can 'set and forget' 0 min to post and 12-1 minimum on my horse. Experimenting with 18-1. A lot less bets qualify but less risk with same profit so far.

Dave Schwartz
01-06-2011, 04:03 PM
I suggest that it is not so much the type of race that produces the price horses as it is the "Who can win?" scenario.

In Improve or Decline, the product I released back in October, I introduced the "Regression Speed Sort" method for determining with 90% likelihood who would win the race. Usually this produces about 4 horses a race, sometimes less, sometimes more, occasionally the entire field.

There are two types of "chaos races" that are predicted with this approach:

1. A race where many (perhaps all) of the horses qualify. This means that every single horse from the favorite to the monster $150 bomb has visible ability to win the race.

2. A race where only one horse qualifies. Inevitably, this horse is the obvious winner in the race but will never win that 90% on his own. In this situation the public often does not bother to ask the question, "If the obvious horse does not win, who will?"

When this horse does not win, the winner will mostly likely come from one of the next three (perhaps four in a large field). Within 1 point of 4th is close enough to qualify in such a race.

Occasionally you will get a huge price. I have caught several $100+ winners in the last few months like this. Imagine a 50/1 horse that was 4th-best in the field! It just screams, "Bet me!"

Another way to play these races is to take the qualified longshots and back-key them in exactas. They run second much more often than win. And, trust me 6/5 on top of 50/1 will be a nice exacta.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

MPRanger
01-06-2011, 08:08 PM
I'm not completely up to speed on conditional wagers.

Is it true that you can only make one conditional wager to win per race?
Or is it per bet? Can you bet multiple conditional win wagers by any mechanism?

Thanks

ronsmac
01-06-2011, 08:10 PM
In what kind of races would find the best overlays? :eek:
This day and age there are very few overlays.

Pell Mell
01-06-2011, 09:38 PM
I'm not completely up to speed on conditional wagers.

Is it true that you can only make one conditional wager to win per race?
Or is it per bet? Can you bet multiple conditional win wagers by any mechanism?

Thanks

Separate bet for each horse. It doesn't matter though because your not pressed for time.

bigmack
01-06-2011, 09:46 PM
In what kind of races would find the best overlays?
Classifying certain types of races in being fertile for overlays is less productive than knowing how to identify an overlay irrespective of the race type.

Jackal
01-06-2011, 10:17 PM
I find most of my overlays in overnight handicaps and graded stakes with several "unknown" horses in the field. Oh yah, I forgot any race at Calder with a full field.

mountainman
01-06-2011, 10:46 PM
Since the very concept of an overlay hinges on some other entrant(s) being underlaid, lots of handicappers key on races with grossly overbet favorites. It's important to realize, though, that identifying false chalk doesn't guarantee success. Without a strong opinion on who WILL win the race, simply knowing that the favorite WON'T has rarely enriched me much. In fact, my best scores come from accentuating the positive and playing better-priced horses on merit-sometimes in races with legit or even formidable favorites. And my biggest follies have come from backing off live longshots because I considered the chalk to be strong. This would probably surprise certain mnr fans who consider my willingness to take strong stands against dead favorites to be my strongsuit as an analyst.

appistappis
01-06-2011, 11:16 PM
small tracks, sprints, large fields.......maiden and nw2.

bigga 1
01-07-2011, 08:39 AM
small tracks, sprints, large fields.......maiden and nw2.
Appistappis,i hope you are making a lot of money,because you are the only one that seems to have figured out what races offer the best overlays.Do you also have a method(blueprint)in handicapping these types of races,would like to share notes. :eek: :lol:

xfile
01-07-2011, 08:49 AM
I remember when this board had nice people sharing ideas with one another. Somehow now it seems like who can get one up on the next guy.

bigga 1
01-07-2011, 08:57 AM
I remember when this board had nice people sharing ideas with one another. Somehow now it seems like who can get one up on the next guy.
Thats what i thought this forum was all about,asking questions and sharing ideas.

Robert Goren
01-07-2011, 09:09 AM
Most "smart" betters agree that short priced deep closers on dirt are a very poor bet. By find a race with one of those and throwing out that horse you can sometimes find value.

TurfRuler
01-07-2011, 10:17 AM
Resisting the urge to play my top pick, which more often happens to be the betting publics favorite, has become a major flaw in my handicapping. More times than not this top pick runs out of the money or loses by a nose a whisker or a hair. I have come to believe that there is a sort of fatigue factor that I can not determine before the race is run, nor can the trainer I believe. By selecting and wagering on the overlays knowing that every horse has a chance to win is my goal, if I can only overcome this urge to play this top pick because my handicapping method and the factors I use that show me that his numerical superiority will rule the race. (Not happening consistently for me.) There was a time when the method I used for selecting horses in grass races were producing overlay results and it only mattered that I play the top picks whether there were one or three contenders. Playing them all resulted in a tremdous profit on paper. And that ladies and gentleman is why I still pursue trying to select winners.

PaceAdvantage
01-07-2011, 07:36 PM
I remember when this board had nice people sharing ideas with one another. Somehow now it seems like who can get one up on the next guy.I didn't get that from this thread....odd....

MPRanger
01-07-2011, 09:15 PM
Thanks Pell Mell. This seems too good to be true. You mean I can make a fair odds line and set a conditional price to trigger a wager on every horse in the race if I want?

What's to keep everybody from getting rich just having the system snag available overlays race after race?

PaceAdvantage
01-07-2011, 09:22 PM
Thanks Pell Mell. This seems too good to be true. You mean I can make a fair odds line and set a conditional price to trigger a wager on every horse in the race if I want?

What's to keep everybody from getting rich just having the system snag available overlays race after race?For one, your fair odds line won't be perfect...probably will be far FAR from perfect.

And two, the conditional wagering functions available today are way less than ideal. For instance, at TwinSpires, if you set the condition for 0mtp, then the system will scan the tote at precisely 0mtp, and if you have a wager that qualifies, it makes the bet, and if you don't, that's it. It's done. It doesn't look again...even if it takes 5 more minutes for the race to actually go off.

But let's say it only takes another minute for the race to go off...and the system bet one of your qualifiers because you had minimum odds set at 5/1 and at 0mtp, the system placed the wager because the horse was 6/1.

Now 1 minute later, as the horses are about to break from the gate, the odds drop to 4/1 on your horse.

appistappis
01-08-2011, 01:47 AM
Appistappis,i hope you are making a lot of money,because you are the only one that seems to have figured out what races offer the best overlays.Do you also have a method(blueprint)in handicapping these types of races,would like to share notes. :eek: :lol:


Well this is what works for me so i thought I would respond. Sorry if it doesn't meet your standards. For the record I kill turf paradise mountaineer every meet and haven't bet any california or new york (except FL) for over 2 years.

In this game winning players all use differing approaches, this is MINE.

Sunday Silence
01-26-2011, 01:35 AM
I like straight maiden races. Bet against horses that finished 2nd first out. Often they are hangers who you learn 5 races later that they just won't pass a horse in the lane. Often they regress second out - but because the public sees either a) nothing but first time starters or b) horses that ran poorly first out - they obviously focus on the bridesmaid horse.

I love to bet 2nd time starters out of good barns. Some have ridiculously good percentages (30+%) and still they go off at long odds. I need to capitalize on this more.

Maiden claimers are a different story. So many throwouts that it gets easier to narrow down the field.

I need to focus on maiden races even more..

Fastracehorse
01-26-2011, 02:28 PM
Since the very concept of an overlay hinges on some other entrant(s) being underlaid, lots of handicappers key on races with grossly overbet favorites. It's important to realize, though, that identifying false chalk doesn't guarantee success. Without a strong opinion on who WILL win the race, simply knowing that the favorite WON'T has rarely enriched me much. In fact, my best scores come from accentuating the positive and playing better-priced horses on merit-sometimes in races with legit or even formidable favorites. And my biggest follies have come from backing off live longshots because I considered the chalk to be strong. This would probably surprise certain mnr fans who consider my willingness to take strong stands against dead favorites to be my strongsuit as an analyst.

... how can you resist?

fffastt

Fastracehorse
01-26-2011, 02:57 PM
I like straight maiden races. Bet against horses that finished 2nd first out. Often they are hangers who you learn 5 races later that they just won't pass a horse in the lane. Often they regress second out - but because the public sees either a) nothing but first time starters or b) horses that ran poorly first out - they obviously focus on the bridesmaid horse.

I love to bet 2nd time starters out of good barns. Some have ridiculously good percentages (30+%) and still they go off at long odds. I need to capitalize on this more.

Maiden claimers are a different story. So many throwouts that it gets easier to narrow down the field.

I need to focus on maiden races even more..

.......this past Saratoga meet ran Maiden races during the 1st leg of the p-4; and several times a lonshot won, and if u had it, you gave yourself a nice shot at a big score

to b honest, i would have had to wheel some of those Maiden races to get the winner, which means a single would b needed on the ticket

fffastt