Ray2000
01-05-2011, 05:38 AM
I didn't mean to hi-jack the Goodbye Meadowlands thread, I'll add this here.
Charles
If your base ROI is a modest $1.08 (after rebate) and there is 30k in the win pool, as there often is at Woodbine or the Meadowlands, the optimal bet size on an even money shot is a little over $1,500 --
The "Whale" bets you used are being placed on even money shots before the whale bets. No whale can survive betting favorites. Betting those amounts on a 4/1 or 7/1 has a much different effect.
I posted this toteboard spreadsheet (attached) a while back to show why betting every horse in the race produces a worse result than just losing at the track take-out+breakage rate. Ignore that for now, I'll use it here just to show the effect of large bets.
To see the effect of whale bets, change the pool multiplier to reflect the track of interest, copy the new amounts to the board (Column B) and see what happens to the 2$ payoff when you add large bets to even money, or 4/1, or 7/1 shots.
.
Charles
If your base ROI is a modest $1.08 (after rebate) and there is 30k in the win pool, as there often is at Woodbine or the Meadowlands, the optimal bet size on an even money shot is a little over $1,500 --
The "Whale" bets you used are being placed on even money shots before the whale bets. No whale can survive betting favorites. Betting those amounts on a 4/1 or 7/1 has a much different effect.
I posted this toteboard spreadsheet (attached) a while back to show why betting every horse in the race produces a worse result than just losing at the track take-out+breakage rate. Ignore that for now, I'll use it here just to show the effect of large bets.
To see the effect of whale bets, change the pool multiplier to reflect the track of interest, copy the new amounts to the board (Column B) and see what happens to the 2$ payoff when you add large bets to even money, or 4/1, or 7/1 shots.
.