SchagFactorToWin
01-01-2011, 12:48 PM
The other thread on chi-square testing got me thinking about using it to test the validity of handicapping methods, rather than developing a system. I'm not sure I have the hypothesis set up correctly and may not be reaching the proper conclusion.
I examined one type of bet which resulted in 75 wins over 397 races. I wanted to know if that was significantly better than what would be expected. To calculate the expected wins, I converted the tote odds to decimal for each pick, summed them, and then used SUM OF ODDS/N. That gave me 68.9 expected wins.
The Win/Loss summary table therefore looks like this:
..........W.........L
obs.....75.....322
exp.....69.....328
The research hypothesis is that there is no statistical difference between my system and what the odds would predict.
The null hypothesis is that there is a significant difference.
Applying the chi square formula:
(75-328)2/69 + (322-69)2/328 = 1122.82
With df=1, a=.05, I reject the research hypothesis and accept the null hypothesis.
My conclusion is that this particular handicapping system returns results better than predicted by the odds.
Since this indicates my system may be viable, I'm assuming I made a mistake! Anyone care to check my work?
I examined one type of bet which resulted in 75 wins over 397 races. I wanted to know if that was significantly better than what would be expected. To calculate the expected wins, I converted the tote odds to decimal for each pick, summed them, and then used SUM OF ODDS/N. That gave me 68.9 expected wins.
The Win/Loss summary table therefore looks like this:
..........W.........L
obs.....75.....322
exp.....69.....328
The research hypothesis is that there is no statistical difference between my system and what the odds would predict.
The null hypothesis is that there is a significant difference.
Applying the chi square formula:
(75-328)2/69 + (322-69)2/328 = 1122.82
With df=1, a=.05, I reject the research hypothesis and accept the null hypothesis.
My conclusion is that this particular handicapping system returns results better than predicted by the odds.
Since this indicates my system may be viable, I'm assuming I made a mistake! Anyone care to check my work?