Bill Finley (Wins Eclipse for News Writing): Disaster at Santa Anita

[andymays]

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=5968859

Excerpt:

There can be only one reason why Santa Anita has gotten off to such a wretched start -- the takeout increase. It looks like horseplayers actually can be pushed too far.

Apparently, the CHRB has backed a loser.

A horseplayers advocacy group called the Horseplayers Association of North America called for a boycott of Santa Anita and several media members took up the call and alerted readers to the pain about to be inflicted on anyone betting on California racing.

[andymays]

Paulick Report

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/finley-it-looks-like-horseplayers-actually-can-be-pushed-too-far/

Excerpt:

Bill Finley looks at the first three days at Santa Anita and with a 20-30% loss in handle each day, the newly adorned Eclipse Award winning writer comes to one conclusion. The takeout increase pushed horseplayers too far

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Once a track loses a customer, it is very hard to get them back, and when it comes to horse racing, it is nearly impossible to replace them.

[jballscalls]

very true HPB, once their gone, their gone, literally and figuratively.

one thing not mentioned in the article was field size. i have only watched 2 or 3 races from SA this year and they were yesterday, and both races had tiny fields.

what were the fields yesterday compared to same wed. last year, if anyone knows?

anyways, hopefully all tracks are taking notice of what takeout increases can do

[andymays]

very true HPB, once their gone, their gone, literally and figuratively.

one thing not mentioned in the article was field size. i have only watched 2 or 3 races from SA this year and they were yesterday, and both races had tiny fields.

what were the fields yesterday compared to same wed. last year, if anyone knows?

anyways, hopefully all tracks are taking notice of what takeout increases can do
The weather did kill them yesterday but when you have short fields to start with any scratches kill them when it comes to handle.

It's more than obvious that Horseplayers have been pushed too far.

A lot of California Horseplayers I know are betting offshore now. They get 3% rebates on WPS and at least 8% on exotics.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

very true HPB, once their gone, their gone, literally and figuratively.

one thing not mentioned in the article was field size. i have only watched 2 or 3 races from SA this year and they were yesterday, and both races had tiny fields.

what were the fields yesterday compared to same wed. last year, if anyone knows?

anyways, hopefully all tracks are taking notice of what takeout increases can do
They had 60 horses race last year as opposed to 51 yesterday. They also had a carryover in the High Five yesterday...no carryover the year before. The year before the Mid Atlanta Co-op didn't have their signal.
I think Finley is right about it being a disaster.

[jballscalls]

They had 60 horses race last year as opposed to 51 yesterday. They also had a carryover in the High Five yesterday...no carryover the year before. The year before the Mid Atlanta Co-op didn't have their signal.
I think Finley is right about it being a disaster.

I don't think anyone is claiming it's anything but a disaster.

I know this was the first Wednesday in a long time they didn't take the PM signal, i'm sure that kept alot of folks home :)

[jballscalls]

The weather did kill them yesterday but when you have short fields to start with any scratches kill them when it comes to handle.

It's more than obvious that Horseplayers have been pushed too far.

A lot of California Horseplayers I know are betting offshore now. They get 3% rebates on WPS and at least 8% on exotics.

I know this whole thing is like putting Christmas, Hannukah, Easter, Halloween and Thanksgiving and wrapping them into one super holiday for you!

[Saratoga_Mike]

They had 60 horses race last year as opposed to 51 yesterday. They also had a carryover in the High Five yesterday...no carryover the year before. The year before the Mid Atlanta Co-op didn't have their signal.
I think Finley is right about it being a disaster.

So far, it's been a disaster, no doubt, but I still wonder about the surface change. In my opinion, the vast majority of the dirt races are completely unplayable because the vast majority of the horses' PPs are on synthetics. And once a player makes that determination (i.e., the dirt racing is unplayable), they probably completely writeoff the track including turf events. It will take a few months to have playable dirt races again, and by that point it may be too late--as HPB points out, once you lose a customer, it's hard to get them back. They obviously never should have switched to synthetics, a dumber move than the takeout increase, imo (I know that's heresy).

[andymays]

I know this whole thing is like putting Christmas, Hannukah, Easter, Halloween and Thanksgiving and wrapping them into one super holiday for you!

It's a lot of hard work. I'm fighting for something I believe in. Make no mistake I would rather not be hammering the Leaders of California Racing on a daily basis.

If someone gave me a free weeks vacation anywhere in the world I would choose Santa Anita. I absolutely love it up there. So, no I'm not happy that their doing badly. I am happy that we seem to be winning the fight against abusive takeout rates. It's not about Santa Anita. It could be any one of the Southern California Tracks running when they spike the takeout rates. It's about the CHRB failing to protect the betting public. That's in their mission statement.

[toussaud]

So far, it's been a disaster, no doubt, but I still wonder about the surface change. In my opinion, the vast majority of the dirt races are completely unplayable because the vast majority of the horses' PPs are on synthetics. And once a player makes that determination (i.e., the dirt racing is unplayable), they probably completely writeoff the track including turf events. It will take a few months to have playable dirt races again, and by that point it may be too late--as HPB points out, once you lose a customer, it's hard to get them back. They obviously never should have switched to synthetics, a dumber move than the takeout increase, imo (I know that's heresy).



To an extent.

I think it's an over exaggeration... there is dirt racing in socal at fairplex, and damn near every claiming horse on the circuit runs there.

take the feature yesterday, the winner, gladding (good horse by the way), broke his maiden at calder by 17. is that really that hard to handicap?

The funny thing is, I actually do play socal, i am not boycotting, and my wagers at the track are down about half from last year. it's not the synthetics.. there is just on value. I think it's a combination of

1. field size
2. the boycott
3. not enough good horses to spread the love around at the window

. yesterday in the what, 3rd, you and a 3 horse race. I would shoot anyone on this forum myself that plays a 3 horse race. Then gladding was an absolute stand out at even money. i'll pass. even when you get a 11 horse field, does it really matter when everyone knows horse X is going to win? not really. The thing about tampa is not so much the field sizes, but to me, the competition is extremely even, at least on paper. Fair Grounds is the same way. Santa Anita is not.

[jballscalls]

It's a lot of hard work. I'm fighting for something I believe in. Make no mistake I would rather not be hammering the Leaders of California Racing on a daily basis.

If someone gave me a free weeks vacation anywhere in the world I would choose Santa Anita. I absolutely love it up there. So, no I'm not happy that their doing badly. I am happy that we seem to be winning the fight against abusive takeout rates. It's not about Santa Anita. It could be any one of the Southern California Tracks running when they spike the takeout rates. It's about the CHRB failing to protect the betting public. That's in their mission statement.

the 2nd paragraph i completely agree with. However, from watching yours posts over the years, i think even if you had everything you wanted, you'd still find something to complain about or stir the pot with, it's your nature, both here and off topic.

keep up the good fight

[thaskalos]

It's a lot of hard work. I'm fighting for something I believe in. Make no mistake I would rather not be hammering the Leaders of California Racing on a daily basis.

If someone gave me a free weeks vacation anywhere in the world I would choose Santa Anita. I absolutely love it up there. So, no I'm not happy that their doing badly. I am happy that we seem to be winning the fight against abusive takeout rates. It's not about Santa Anita. It could be any one of the Southern California Tracks running when they spike the takeout rates. It's about the CHRB failing to protect the betting public. That's in their mission statement.
The leaders of California Racing deserve all the "hammering" that they get Andy...so don't let up on them!

Where is the "top quality entertainment" product that they promised to the public, when they were trying to justify the takeout increase?

[andymays]

The leaders of California Racing deserve all the "hammering" that they get Andy...so don't let up on them!

Where is the "top quality entertainment" product that they promised to the public, when they were trying to justify the takeout increase?

I've sent out three emails to all of them this week and they're getting pissed off at me. The other day I got into a beef with a high profile Trainer when he responded to all in one of my emails.

The one they got today mirrored the first two posts in this thread. I also let them know that there are more high profile journialists coming out with similar articles over the next couple of weeks.

They never expected this kind of pushback

[Saratoga_Mike]

I've sent out three emails to all of them this week and they're getting pissed off at me. The other day I got into a beef with a high profile Trainer when he responded to all in one of my emails.

The one they got today mirrored the first two posts in this thread. I also let them know that there are more high profile journialists coming out with similar articles over the next couple of weeks.

They never expected this kind of pushback

Getting? I think you passed that station awhile ago. :)

[andymays]

Getting? I think you passed that station awhile ago. :)

Yes, that was the understatement of 2010. ;)

[Saratoga_Mike]

To an extent.

I think it's an over exaggeration... there is dirt racing in socal at fairplex, and damn near every claiming horse on the circuit runs there.

take the feature yesterday, the winner, gladding (good horse by the way), broke his maiden at calder by 17. is that really that hard to handicap?

The funny thing is, I actually do play socal, i am not boycotting, and my wagers at the track are down about half from last year. it's not the synthetics.. there is just on value. I think it's a combination of

1. field size
2. the boycott
3. not enough good horses to spread the love around at the window

. yesterday in the what, 3rd, you and a 3 horse race. I would shoot anyone on this forum myself that plays a 3 horse race. Then gladding was an absolute stand out at even money. i'll pass. even when you get a 11 horse field, does it really matter when everyone knows horse X is going to win? not really. The thing about tampa is not so much the field sizes, but to me, the competition is extremely even, at least on paper. Fair Grounds is the same way. Santa Anita is not.

Field size absolutely hurts, no arguments here. I didn't look at yesterday's races, but in the race you referenced how many other horses had dirt PPs? I don't want races where one horse shows dirt form.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Andy,

Has the CHRB announced 2011 racing dates (beyond the current SA meet) for the major tracks?

[andymays]

Field size absolutely hurts, no arguments here. I didn't look at yesterday's races, but in the race you referenced how many other horses had dirt PPs? I don't want races where one horse shows dirt form.

When you have a main track race and it comes up sloppy and these Trainers/Owners scratch their horses when they know the field is short to begin with, need to rethink what they're doing. I can understand in some cases a horse may have proven that he/she can't handle it but none of these horses have established that. It's B.S. for them to scratch because of the slop and they deserve to have purses cut if they keep doing that.

[Saratoga_Mike]

BTW Finley wrote the most absurd book on synthetic racing a few yrs back, so he isn't going to attribute any decline to the switch back to dirt. To him, there isn't much of a difference, at least that was my takeaway from his horrible book.

[Saratoga_Mike]

When you have a main track race and it comes up sloppy and these Trainers/Owners scratch their horses when they know the field is short to begin with, need to rethink what they're doing. I can understand in some cases a horse may have proven that he/she can't handle it but none of these horses have established that. It's B.S. for them to scratch because of the slop and they deserver to have purses cut if they keep doing that.

Simple: adjust the purse size downward as horses scratch out.

[thaskalos]

Could it be that the horseplayers finally had enough...and they decided to stand up and flex their muscle?

I never thought I would see it in my lifetime...:ThmbUp:

[andymays]

Andy,

Has the CHRB announced 2011 racing dates (beyond the current SA meet) for the major tracks?

If you're referring to the Oak Tree dates I believe they're playing politics as usual. They want to give it to Del Mar but they will probably have to give it to Santa Anita where it belongs.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I have a question for breeders. When you have a stud that isn't getting enough bookings do you a) Raise the stud fee? b) Keep the stud fee the same?
c) Lower the stud fee?

Question for trainers: When you don't have enough customers do you a) Raise your day pay? b) keep day pay the same and cut costs? c) Lower your day pay?

Why is horse racing the only business that believes that takeout (the cost to the customer) works outside basic economics 101?

[Saratoga_Mike]

If you're referring to the Oak Tree dates I believe they're playing politics as usual. They want to give it to Del Mar but they will probably have to give it to Santa Anita where it belongs.

And as you know I don't follow the insanity in your state cloesly (except for the handle situation at SA), so has Del Mar announced any plans to switch back to dirt?

[thaskalos]

I have a question for breeders. When you have a stud that isn't getting enough bookings do you a) Raise the stud fee? b) Keep the stud fee the same?
c) Lower the stud fee?

Question for trainers: When you don't have enough customers do you a) Raise your day pay? b) keep day pay the same and cut costs? c) Lower your day pay?

Why is horse racing the only business that believes that takeout (the cost to the customer) works outside basic economics 101?
Because the customers have allowed it up until now!

The leaders of this game have confused our lackadaisical attitude, and general apathy toward the escalating takeouts...with stupidity!

[andymays]

And as you know I don't follow the insanity in your state cloesly (except for the handle situation at SA), so has Del Mar announced any plans to switch back to dirt?

That story has a whole bunch of stuff to it but for now they're keeping what they have. I know most Trainers, Owners, and Horseplayers don't like it but the management there thinks it's great so we'll see.

[Saratoga_Mike]

That story has a whole bunch of stuff to it but for now they're keeping what they have. I know most Trainers, Owners, and Horseplayers don't like it but the management there thinks it's great so we'll see.

Well that's dumb. If you want to attract more horses to Cali, your major circuit needs consistency of surface. The vast majority of trainers aren't going to shuttle horses back and forth between coasts depending on whether there's a dirt or synthetic meet underway.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Because the customers have allowed it up until now!

The leaders of this game have confused our lackadaisical attitude, and general apathy toward the escalating takeouts...with stupidity!
Regardless of whether the customer revolts or not, high takeouts make no economic sense whatsoever. Every business understands that you try to achieve optimal pricing. Breeders do this with stud fees (they lower the price in order to try to make the most money), they understand that they would rather have 30 bookings at $5,000 than 10 bookings at $10,000. They understand their market by using simple supply and demand principles.

We've seen overall handle plummet and blended takeout rates increase over the past 10 years. So what do the brainiacs in California do? Raise takeout some more. It makes zero sense.

Horse racing has never attempted to seek out optimal pricing when it comes to betting. They understand optimal pricing when it comes to food and beverage (perhaps the optimal price is that high for food, etc. because they are pretty much inline with sporting events), but when it comes to takeout, they are clueless.

[andymays]

Well that's dumb. If you want to attract more horses to Cali, your major circuit needs consistency of surface. The vast majority of trainers aren't going to shuttle horses back and forth between coasts depending on whether there's a dirt or synthetic meet underway.

There is a battle for ownership of the Del Mar Fairgrounds and a group led by Mike Pegram is trying to buy it. Since he is one of Bafferts friends and a major owner I am assuming they will put dirt in this year or next if they buy it.

People have to remember that the surface there is abused for most of the year and then they run a short meet in the summer. It's a tricky issue.

[David-LV]

I've sent out three emails to all of them this week and they're getting pissed off at me. The other day I got into a beef with a high profile Trainer when he responded to all in one of my emails.

The one they got today mirrored the first two posts in this thread. I also let them know that there are more high profile journialists coming out with similar articles over the next couple of weeks.

They never expected this kind of pushback

The ongoing slogan should be:

"I will not bet one single dime at Santa Anita until they rescind the higher takeout rates."

__________
David-LV

[Saratoga_Mike]

There is a battle for ownership of the Del Mar Fairgrounds and a group led by Mike Pegram is trying to buy it. Since he is one of Bafferts friends and a major owner I am assuming they will put dirt in this year or next if they buy it.

People have to remember that the surface there is abused for most of the year and then they run a short meet in the summer. It's a tricky issue.

Surprised at you - nothing tricky, it should be changed back to dirt.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

The ongoing slogan should be:

"I will not bet one single dime at Santa Anita until they rescind the higher takeout rates."

__________
David-LV
I'm curious that if the powers who voted for the takeout increase could vote to rescind it today, would they actually vote to rescind it?

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm curious that if the powers who voted for the takeout increase could vote to rescind it today, would they actually vote to rescind it?

No on two grounds - 1) it's too early to make a call, even though I concede the handle has been horrible for the first few days; 2) they'd be admitting they made a mistake, not going to happen.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

No on two grounds - 1) it's too early to make a call, even though I concede the handle has been horrible for the first few days; 2) they'd be admitting they made a mistake, not going to happen.
A good businessman admits mistakes and bails as soon as they can from the mistake.
You would think that the possible long term loss of customers outweighs ego.
As for it being too early, if they wait too long, it will be too late.

[andymays]

There is a battle for ownership of the Del Mar Fairgrounds and a group led by Mike Pegram is trying to buy it. Since he is one of Bafferts friends and a major owner I am assuming they will put dirt in this year or next if they buy it.

People have to remember that the surface there is abused for most of the year and then they run a short meet in the summer. It's a tricky issue.

Surprised at you - nothing tricky, it should be changed back to dirt.

Yes, it's a no brainer for me. The surface is totally innapropriate for the summer weather at Del Mar.

[rastajenk]

Simple: adjust the purse size downward as horses scratch out.So you'd punish the connections of the remaining horses for honoring their commitment? :confused:

[toussaud]

A good businessman admits mistakes and bails as soon as they can from the mistake.
You would think that the possible long term loss of customers outweighs ego.
As for it being too early, if they wait too long, it will be too late.
good business people also don't jack up takeout to 22 percent and change and think they are going to be able to jack up purses while keeping handle the same.

[toussaud]

[QUOTE=Saratoga_Mike]

Yes, it's a no brainer for me. The surface is totally innapropriate for the summer weather at Del Mar.
I have mixed issues on this. First, you are technically correct. However del mar this year, single handedly assured me to be in the black this year. So I have no problem whatever they do, actually, i kinda wish they would keep it as is for selfish reasons. I know I'm not supposed to like it, I don't know what it is about that track i just get it for some reason. But I would be happy for the overall circuit if they went back to dirt.

[andymays]

[QUOTE=andymays]
I have mixed issues on this. First, you are technically correct. However del mar this year, single handedly assured me to be in the black this year. So I have no problem whatever they do, actually, i kinda wish they would keep it as is for selfish reasons. I know I'm not supposed to like it, I don't know what it is about that track i just get it for some reason. But I would be happy for the overall circuit if they went back to dirt.

Del Mar makes a huge amount of money by throwing parties at the track. The concerts there draw thousands of people and they add that to their attendance figures even though most of the concert goers go late for the concert. The money derived from the concert is kept by Del Mar and they share nothing with the Horseman for purses. That is a sore spot for a lot of people. In 2009 they were down in handle over 13% and last year down about 6%. They are still very profitable though. Last meet after the meet ended they did sent a retroactive purse increase to the owners I believe. Whether that was out of the kindness of their hearts or because of pressure from Owners/Trainers I don't know. Del Mar has the best marketing department in the business.

[turfnsport]

A good businessman admits mistakes and bails as soon as they can from the mistake.



No way that happens in this case.

They will blame the handle decrease on UFO's before they admit they made a mistake.

[Charli125]

Handle has been talked about before, but here are a few more pieces of data that might be interesting. It's early, so I'm not making any conclusions yet, but figured I'd share.

Races 2009-37, Races 2010-35
Starters 2009-234, Starters 2010-216
Starters/Race 2009-6.32, Starters/Race 2010-6.17
Purses 2009-1,784,898, Purses 2010-1,687,548
Purse/Race 2009-48,240.5, Purse/Race 2010-48,215.7
Purse $/Starter 2009-7,627.8, Purse $/Starter 2010-7,812.7

Sorry it's messy, I don't know how to imbed a table.

[Saratoga_Mike]

So you'd punish the connections of the remaining horses for honoring their commitment? :confused:

I understand where you're coming from, but if a 10-horse field is racing for $30k and it scr's down to a 5-horse field, it doesn't seem unreasonable to cut the purse by $1,000/horse, imo, taking it to $25k? Alternately, they could start with a base purse of $30k for 8-horse fields and bump it by $1,000 per additional entry (or more). I believe that's what Saratoga tried (more than $1k/starter, though) either this past yr or in '09 for races going long.

[JohnGalt1]

Why is horse racing the only business that believes that takeout (the cost to the customer) works outside basic economics 101?[/QUOTE]


Our Government(s), city state and federal.

I admit they are not a business, but a few years ago when gas took a steep drop, Minneapolis saw bus ridership fall. Their solution---raise the price of bus fares. Ridership fell more. At least now when they raise rates it at least is because of cost increases.

This is just one example, I'm sure everyone can think of more.

So your above statement should read "Why is horse racing and governments one of only two entities that believe takeout/tax rate increses works outside basic economics 101?"

What a pair!!!

[andymays]

Betting Thoroughbreds with Steve Davidowitz

http://www.gradeoneracing.com/davidowitz.htm?read=89

Excerpt:

The net decline in handle certainly is a result of the publicity gained by boycott leaders and horseplayer groups that pointed out the unfairness of the takeout increase. This was, I believe, a terrific development in the way horseplayers' concerns can be stated in the public marketplace. Beyond the unfairness of it, so many players understand that the scheduled raise in takeout is likely to be a counter productive influence on every aspect of the racetrack experience, including purses.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Betting Thoroughbreds with Steve Davidowitz

http://www.gradeoneracing.com/davidowitz.htm?read=89

Excerpt:

The net decline in handle certainly is a result of the publicity gained by boycott leaders and horseplayer groups that pointed out the unfairness of the takeout increase. This was, I believe, a terrific development in the way horseplayers' concerns can be stated in the public marketplace. Beyond the unfairness of it, so many players understand that the scheduled raise in takeout is likely to be a counter productive influence on every aspect of the racetrack experience, including purses.

How can anybody take this guy seriously?

He goes out of his way to say.......

"I cannot in good conscience support this boycott, for a very simple reason: It will not work."

"As I see it, the present boycott runs a very large risk that there will be no measurable decrease in handle that can be linked to it."

"It is a classic can't win situation, pure and simple."

"At the bottom line, I am boycotting the boycott at Santa Anita until the well intentioned horseplayers behind this ill timed effort realize that they need to postpone it for a better, clearer opportunity."

"Begin this Sunday or during the first half of this Santa Anita meet and there is no chance it will accomplish anything that the CHRB will notice, or heed."

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/davidowitz-on-boycott-it-will-not-work/

He obviously thought that everybody was a $2 whore just like he must be. Yeah Steve, just keep betting and everything will be fine. They are kicking all horseplayers in the groin and you are telling everybody that you don't mind it and to keep betting.

He was 100% wrong and now he acts like he's the authority to analyze what is happening now that handle is destroyed and the CHRB is noticing even though he said it couldn't happen.

STFU you moron.

[toussaud]

How can anybody take this guy seriously?

He goes out of his way to say.......

"I cannot in good conscience support this boycott, for a very simple reason: It will not work."

"As I see it, the present boycott runs a very large risk that there will be no measurable decrease in handle that can be linked to it."

"It is a classic can't win situation, pure and simple."

"At the bottom line, I am boycotting the boycott at Santa Anita until the well intentioned horseplayers behind this ill timed effort realize that they need to postpone it for a better, clearer opportunity."

"Begin this Sunday or during the first half of this Santa Anita meet and there is no chance it will accomplish anything that the CHRB will notice, or heed."

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/davidowitz-on-boycott-it-will-not-work/

He obviously thought that everybody was a $2 whore just like he must be. Yeah Steve, just keep betting and everything will be fine. They are kicking all horseplayers in the groin and you are telling everybody that you don't mind it and to keep betting.

He was 100% wrong and now he acts like he's the authority to analyze what is happening now that handle is destroyed and the CHRB is noticing even though he said it couldn't happen.

STFU you moron.
+1 lol

[Saratoga_Mike]

Betting Thoroughbreds with Steve Davidowitz

http://www.gradeoneracing.com/davidowitz.htm?read=89

Excerpt:

The net decline in handle certainly is a result of the publicity gained by boycott leaders and horseplayer groups that pointed out the unfairness of the takeout increase. This was, I believe, a terrific development in the way horseplayers' concerns can be stated in the public marketplace. Beyond the unfairness of it, so many players understand that the scheduled raise in takeout is likely to be a counter productive influence on every aspect of the racetrack experience, including purses.

He can't say certainly. I think it's a factor, but the surface switch is probably also a factor.

[andymays]

He can't say certainly. I think it's a factor, but the surface switch is probably also a factor.

He replied to all in my email string this morning with the Finley article.

[Saratoga_Mike]

He replied to all in my email string this morning with the Finley article.

Bill Finley barely acknowledges the difference between dirt and synthetics, so he isn't going to attribute any of the decline to the surface switch.

[andymays]

Bill Finley barely acknowledges the difference between dirt and synthetics, so he isn't going to attribute any of the decline to the surface switch.

I'm not interested in anyones past as long as they are onboard right now. We have a good chance to win this war. All I know is that we were 1000-1 two weeks ago and now we are 5-1 that they will make some kind of change.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm not interested in anyones past as long as they are onboard right now. We have a good chance to win this war. All I know is that we were 1000-1 two weeks ago and now we are 5-1 that they will make some kind of change.

I'm just wondering about the true cause of the decline. You can't rule out the surface switch given the boycott wasn't even suppose to start until 1/1.

[andymays]

I'm just wondering about the true cause of the decline. You can't rule out the surface switch given the boycott wasn't even suppose to start until 1/1.

Yes, that could be one of the factors but there is no doubt that Horseplayers all around the country are pissed off at the CHRB. You can't have higher takeout and still have short fields. It doesn't work at all.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Yes, that could be one of the factors but there is no doubt that Horseplayers all around the country are pissed off at the CHRB. You can't have higher takeout and still have short fields. It doesn't work at all.

I think price sensitive customers (the largest bettors) are certainly upset by the move, but my bet is a good portion of the decline is related to the surface switch. Hell you could see even worse handle results come 1/1 when the boycott officially kicks in.

[andymays]

I think price sensitive customers (the largest bettors) are certainly upset by the move, but my bet is a good portion of the decline is related to the surface switch. Hell you could see even worse handle results come 1/1 when the boycott officially kicks in.

The two biggest factors are Horseplayer anger and weather. It's been pretty chalky so the surface switch excuse doesn't hold up after day 1.

[jelly]

How can anybody take this guy seriously?

He goes out of his way to say.......

"I cannot in good conscience support this boycott, for a very simple reason: It will not work."

"As I see it, the present boycott runs a very large risk that there will be no measurable decrease in handle that can be linked to it."

"It is a classic can't win situation, pure and simple.""At the bottom line, I am boycotting the boycott at Santa Anita until the well intentioned horseplayers behind this ill timed effort realize that they need to postpone it for a better, clearer opportunity."

"Begin this Sunday or during the first half of this Santa Anita meet and there is no chance it will accomplish anything that the CHRB will notice, or heed."

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/davidowitz-on-boycott-it-will-not-work/

He obviously thought that everybody was a $2 whore just like he must be. Yeah Steve, just keep betting and everything will be fine. They are kicking all horseplayers in the groin and you are telling everybody that you don't mind it and to keep betting.

He was 100% wrong and now he acts like he's the authority to analyze what is happening now that handle is destroyed and the CHRB is noticing even though he said it couldn't happen.

STFU you moron.




Agree,I'm losing a lot of respect for Davidowitz.


The guys playing for a tie.


It sounds like he Davidowitz would agree to the takeout increase as long as they promised not to raise the take again. :bang:

[Dave Schwartz]

"I will not bet one single dime at Santa Anita until they rescind the higher takeout rates."


How about:

I will not bet one single dime at Santa Anita until they rescind the higher takeout rates and drop 1% below that.

[turfnsport]

I think price sensitive customers (the largest bettors) are certainly upset by the move, but my bet is a good portion of the decline is related to the surface switch. Hell you could see even worse handle results come 1/1 when the boycott officially kicks in.

I don't think there are too many horseplayers waiting until Jan 1 to boycott.

Those in favor of a boycott stopped betting Dec, 26, or in many cases a few months ago when the takeout hike was signed.

[The_Knight_Sky]

I don't think there are too many horseplayers waiting until Jan 1 to boycott.



Last I heard the "official boycott" starts sometime in mid-January.
When it does, it should hammer the point home, I do believe.
_____________

I would like to take this opportunity to express support for the fellow horse racing customers who have "already started" the California Racing boycott.

The goal should be to rescind the takeout. :ThmbUp:

And should California racing lower the takeout rates further, I will (and you should too) call your neighbors and wake the kids to support what is long overdue in horse racing....reductions towards the optimal takeout rates for each wagering pool and maximizing the purses from that point on.

[andymays]

I don't think there are too many horseplayers waiting until Jan 1 to boycott.

Those in favor of a boycott stopped betting Dec, 26, or in many cases a few months ago when the takeout hike was signed.
Exactly.

[Saratoga_Mike]

The two biggest factors are Horseplayer anger and weather. It's been pretty chalky so the surface switch excuse doesn't hold up after day 1.

Why? Just b/c synthetic form has been fairly predictive of dirt performance for a few days doesn't mean people (like me) don't take issue with the switch. From the handle numbers HPB has provided from other tracks like TUP, I don't buy into the weather excuse as much as I did on Sunday/Monday. My whole point is there's no way of knowing.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I don't know how they will sustain a purse increase. Unless they cut back to 3 days a week.

According to Equibase, today Santa Anita did $5,357,538 in handle. 55 horses.
Last year on the corresponding Thursday (New Years Eve though) they did $6,747, 701. They were down over 20% again. 8 races both cards.

Hawthorne canceled which probably helped them a bit, but they also had the Mid Atlantic Co-op betting into the pools.

Tampa Bay Downs did over $4.6 million, up from $3.8 million last year on the corresponding date. Up 20%. 10 races both cards.

[OCF]

Given that the takeout % increased, the takeout in $ hasn't suffered as much as the handle, no?

Maybe eventually, after the surface change has been assimilated, the takeout in $ will increase, even if the handle doesn't totally recover?

And maybe that's what they (the horsemen and the CHRB) are hanging their hats on?

[jelly]

I don't know how they will sustain a purse increase. Unless they cut back to 3 days a week.

According to Equibase, today Santa Anita did $5,357,538 in handle. 55 horses.
Last year on the corresponding Thursday (New Years Eve though) they did $6,747, 701. They were down over 20% again. 8 races both cards.

Hawthorne canceled which probably helped them a bit, but they also had the Mid Atlantic Co-op betting into the pools.

Tampa Bay Downs did over $4.6 million, up from $3.8 million last year on the corresponding date. Up 20%. 10 races both cards.




Maybe someone in the media can ask Ric Hammerle whats his thoughts are on handle for the first week.


I look forward to listening to the Roger Stein show this weekend.he'll get more info on the're thoughts than drf,tvg and hrtv combined.

http://www.rogerstein.com/

[Saratoga_Mike]

Given that the takeout % increased, the takeout in $ hasn't suffered as much as the handle, no?

Maybe eventually, after the surface change has been assimilated, the takeout in $ will increase, even if the handle doesn't totally recover?

And maybe that's what they (the horsemen and the CHRB) are hanging their hats on?

The increase doesn't cover all types of wagers, just stuff with two or more betting interests (like exactas, tris etc). Even if it did, the math wouldn't work on down 20% handle.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Given that the takeout % increased, the takeout in $ hasn't suffered as much as the handle, no?

Maybe eventually, after the surface change has been assimilated, the takeout in $ will increase, even if the handle doesn't totally recover?

And maybe that's what they (the horsemen and the CHRB) are hanging their hats on?
The takeout hasn't increased yet. Right now they are down quite a lot in purse money. They would still be down significantly if the takeout increase had already kicked in.

The CHRB is counting on handle remaining constant even though they raised prices. I think that is really stupid thinking.

[OCF]

The increase doesn't cover all types of wagers, just stuff with two or more betting interests (like exactas, tris etc). Even if it did, the math wouldn't work on down 20% handle.

Agreed, my point was a decrease in handle doesn't necessarily equate to a decrease in takeout $.

Seems a little early for the boycotters to declare victory.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Agreed, my point was a decrease in handle doesn't necessarily equate to a decrease in takeout $.

Seems a little early for the boycotters to declare victory.
Boycotters won't declare victory until the takeout hike is rescinded.

[OCF]

The takeout hasn't increased yet.

Have to admit I didn't know that. When is it scheduled to take effect?

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Have to admit I didn't know that. When is it scheduled to take effect?
January 1st.

[toussaud]

saturday

[OCF]

January 1st.

Thanks.

I still say wait (maybe 2 weeks? - a complete stab in the dark on my part, but it's got to be more than 4 days) for the surface change to be fully assimilated by the players before drawing any conclusions. And then look at not only the change in handle but the change in takeout $.

[turfnsport]

So four days with no boycott and the handle is down about 20%..I don't think handle will dip much more than -20%....So when the "official boycott" starts, and handle remains around -20%, will the SoCal Spin Doctors come out and say, "See, it's not the boycott, it's the economy & weather!" :D

[DeanT]

Should be up tomorrow. Bigger fields, New Years Eve. Maybe a couple of cancellations. It's gotta be up big tomorrow. Common sense say so. http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/porcupine.html

[Stillriledup]

Once a track loses a customer, it is very hard to get them back, and when it comes to horse racing, it is nearly impossible to replace them.

I was talking to someone who's not really involved in racing about this boycott and explained what people were boycotting. I told him that people are going to wait until takeout is brought back to realistic levels before going back to bet. The person who doesn't know racing that much said, "people might not rush back if they learn an entire new circuit. the longer this goes, the harder it is going to be to get the alienated customers back"

This is a great point that is really not something many people are thinking about. Once you really start working on another track, you accumulate notes and horses you want to bet back (and bet against). If you switch, you might just be gone from that track forever.

[toussaud]

I was talking to someone who's not really involved in racing about this boycott and explained what people were boycotting. I told him that people are going to wait until takeout is brought back to realistic levels before going back to bet. The person who doesn't know racing that much said, "people might not rush back if they learn an entire new circuit. the longer this goes, the harder it is going to be to get the alienated customers back"

This is a great point that is really not something many people are thinking about. Once you really start working on another track, you accumulate notes and horses you want to bet back (and bet against). If you switch, you might just be gone from that track forever.


A good analogy would be the car market. I am 27 years old. My first car ever, was a 92 Cadillac deville. POS car. Guzzled gas, broke down all the time, just wasn't a good car and it had onl like 70k miles on it. My next car, which was only like 6 months after that, was a 92 honda accord with literary, 270k miles on it. literary, the car still runs today and this was 11 years ago lol, I gave it to my little brother and he drives it now in college with about 370k miles on it. besides a few dents and dings, runs perfectly, 35 miles a gallon. Since that experience, I never even considered an american car after that, and heck, I sold cars for 2 years. I would not even work for a domestic car dealership, that was how deep I hated domestic cars. Apparently I wasn't the only one, because there was a point where you couldn't give them away as far as used cars. Unless it was a mustang or something "hot" like that I would not take a trade in at less than 1k under blue book.

Anyway, my mom bought a car literary yesterday, a Buick Lacrosse, and I went with her on the test drive. And I will be honest, I kinda liked the car. I mean it's not something I would buy but it's a better car than I thought it would be. So I should be buying a new car by the end of the year, and for the first time in my adult life I will LOOK at a domestic car. LOOK. Still leaning towards foreign.

But you know, alot of the changes, like the volt, they have been working on for years. mid sized chevys have been getting better gas mileage than camry for a while now This is the first year that they get about the same gas mileage (Camry and the Malibu). But eadthat I drive a camry (I don't but you get the point I am making), you have to do something, to get me away from driving the camry now.

you have to spend 2x m ore to get me back then when I was a new customer beucase I now have preconceived notions that you have to get me over. And I don't see, tampa bay doing antyhing but going UP. I don't see fair grounds doing anything but going UP. I don't see oaklawn doing anything but going UP. Gulfstream is trying to get night racing. They are running 6 fridya 3-7 meets this year on fridays, going straight up with santa atnia lol, who do you think is going to win that battle?

The best thing they could do is admit their mistakes, and keep the clients before they run off. But they won't. Then, when they "put back the takeout" clients just aren't going ot run back, not because they are pissed but becuase, they have found a new and good product, so they are going ot have to then go above and beyond to get those clients back.


I would not be suprised if heads roll by this time next year in the CHRB. I don't think they realize how screwed up they are now.

[Stillriledup]

A good analogy would be the car market. I am 27 years old. My first car ever, was a 92 Cadillac deville. POS car. Guzzled gas, broke down all the time, just wasn't a good car and it had onl like 70k miles on it. My next car, which was only like 6 months after that, was a 92 honda accord with literary, 270k miles on it. literary, the car still runs today and this was 11 years ago lol, I gave it to my little brother and he drives it now in college with about 370k miles on it. besides a few dents and dings, runs perfectly, 35 miles a gallon. Since that experience, I never even considered an american car after that, and heck, I sold cars for 2 years. I would not even work for a domestic car dealership, that was how deep I hated domestic cars. Apparently I wasn't the only one, because there was a point where you couldn't give them away as far as used cars. Unless it was a mustang or something "hot" like that I would not take a trade in at less than 1k under blue book.

Anyway, my mom bought a car literary yesterday, a Buick Lacrosse, and I went with her on the test drive. And I will be honest, I kinda liked the car. I mean it's not something I would buy but it's a better car than I thought it would be. So I should be buying a new car by the end of the year, and for the first time in my adult life I will LOOK at a domestic car. LOOK. Still leaning towards foreign.

But you know, alot of the changes, like the volt, they have been working on for years. mid sized chevys have been getting better gas mileage than camry for a while now This is the first year that they get about the same gas mileage (Camry and the Malibu). But eadthat I drive a camry (I don't but you get the point I am making), you have to do something, to get me away from driving the camry now.

you have to spend 2x m ore to get me back then when I was a new customer beucase I now have preconceived notions that you have to get me over. And I don't see, tampa bay doing antyhing but going UP. I don't see fair grounds doing anything but going UP. I don't see oaklawn doing anything but going UP. Gulfstream is trying to get night racing. They are running 6 fridya 3-7 meets this year on fridays, going straight up with santa atnia lol, who do you think is going to win that battle?

The best thing they could do is admit their mistakes, and keep the clients before they run off. But they won't. Then, when they "put back the takeout" clients just aren't going ot run back, not because they are pissed but becuase, they have found a new and good product, so they are going ot have to then go above and beyond to get those clients back.


I would not be suprised if heads roll by this time next year in the CHRB. I don't think they realize how screwed up they are now.


We need more 'suits' to come out and tell the customers that they are idiots, addicts and morons. I think THAT might convince some to put their tail between their legs and crawl back to get some of the 23.68.

[rastajenk]

Literary?

Really?

[toussaud]

Literary?

Really?
it was almost 1am here, deal with it

[highnote]

it was almost 1am here, deal with it

LOL

[toussaud]

LOL
lol

If they are going to make money it's going to be today. People aren't working, they have a pretty decent card, great weather, no one is snowed in. It's put up or shut up time.

[Saratoga_Mike]

lol

If they are going to make money it's going to be today. People aren't working, they have a pretty decent card, great weather, no one is snowed in. It's put up or shut up time.

Three out of the last five yrs when there was racing on 12/30 and 12/31, handle was actually down on 12/31 from 12/30. The avg decline was 10%.

If you use the yr-ago Friday comparison, they'll need to exceed $8.8 mm in handle to be up from a yr ago. So I'd be shocked if they're up y/y today. Actually I think it could be a really bad day for them (if comparing against the $8.8 mm number).

[Saratoga_Mike]

After three races, they're down 3% from the yr-ago Friday and 6% from the yr-ago 12/31 date. The second race, which was on the turf, helped out big time. There are a couple more on the turf, so we'll see...

[andymays]

After three races, they're down 3% from the yr-ago Friday and 6% from the yr-ago 12/31 date. The second race, which was on the turf, helped out big time. There are a couple more on the turf, so we'll see...

Thanks Mike. I think they're gonna break even today or go up a little (maybe 4%).

[Saratoga_Mike]

Thanks Mike. I think they're gonna break even today or go up a little (maybe 4%).

It will come down to the turf events, imo.

[toussaud]

that last turf race I don't think helped out alot.

even when you get perfect conditions most the races are dead giveaways and when you like a horse there is no value.

[jelly]

Handle for tampa the last three days.

$4,230,056

$4,680,743

$4,975,203


Taken money from somewhere.

[Saratoga_Mike]

that last turf race I don't think helped out alot.

even when you get perfect conditions most the races are dead giveaways and when you like a horse there is no value.

Race 1: approx $265k

Race 2: approx $713k TURF RACE

Race 3: approx $447k

[DeanT]

Tampa was up ~25% today, so I fully expect SA to be up 25%

Track Attendance 3,007 Handle: $228,725
ITW: $344,056
ISW: $4,402,422

Last year on Dec 31

Track Attendance 2,491 Handle: $207,169
ITW: $304,860
ISW: $3,298,575

http://maps.google.ca/maps?hl=en&q=south+porcupine+ontario&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=South+Porcupine,+Cochrane+District,+Ontario&gl=ca&z=14

[Saratoga_Mike]

Tampa was up ~25% today, so I fully expect SA to be up 25%



After five races, DOWN 11% and 13% for the same-Friday comparable and the 12/31 comp, respectively.

[andymays]

After five races, DOWN 11% and 13% for the same-Friday comparable and the 12/31 comp, respectively.

Hmmmmmmmmm. Thanks Mike.

[Southieboy]

There is NO value at this track.:faint:

[andymays]

What is that, like 3 late scratches in a row? That's killing the handle.

[The_Knight_Sky]

What is that, like 3 late scratches in a row?
That's killing the handle.


That's false advertising. :ThmbDown:

The horses names are dropped into the entry box,
then scratched out before they get loaded into the gate.

Handicapping and wagering decisions were simpler ten years ago.
Those horses entered had a greater than 90% chance of running.

I'm chilling the bubbly, ;) Andy but if you 've got time...
how many were horse were entered and how many actually did get to run?

[andymays]

That's false advertising. :ThmbDown:

The horses names are dropped into the entry box,
then scratched out before they get loaded into the gate.

Handicapping and wagering decisions were simpler ten years ago.
Those horses entered had a greater than 90% chance of running.

I'm chilling the bubbly, ;) Andy but if you 've got time...
how many were horse were entered and how many actually did get to run?

I'm tied up (not literally :) ). I'm sure someone on the board can address that.

[Charli125]

Actual runners was 69, original entries was 79.

Will be posting handle results once the race 9 chart comes out. Should be about 30 minutes.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Running down about 13% after eight races.

[owlet]

At Hol. and SA entries are consistently faked, via a wink wink nudge nudge agreement between the racing secretaries and the trainers, in order to make the entries look stronger than they are. This is what myself and others are referring to as "suspicious" late scratches.

It's part of the b.s. and con game their running. Pick up the form and handicap the night before at your own risk.

[Southieboy]

12/31/10: $6,824,155

[DeanT]

Running down about 13% after eight races.

I think you better double check. It was a huge handle day today with horseplayers playing mega bucks at Tampa. There should have been a lot of full pockets for SA too!

[Charli125]

I did a quick handle/race calculation and it's amazing. Down 130K(17%) per race compared to last year on Friday, and down 92K(12%) compared to day 5(Thursday) last year.

Hard to compare because last year there were 10 races and this year there were 9, and to make it even more confusing, last year on Day 5 there were 8 races.

Will try to post the table in a second.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I think you better double check. It was a huge handle day today with horseplayers playing mega bucks at Tampa. There should have been a lot of full pockets for SA too!

Today had nine races, whereas 12/31/09 had eight and the yr-ago Friday had ten. Adjusting for the number of races, today was down about 11% and 15%, respectively.

With the New Yr upon us, you are no longer a porcupine.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I did a quick handle/race calculation and it's amazing. Down 130K(17%) per race compared to last year on Friday, and down 92K(12%) compared to day 5(Thursday) last year.

Hard to compare because last year there were 10 races and this year there were 9, and to make it even more confusing, last year on Day 5 there were 8 races.

Will try to post the table in a second.

The comparison are a mess. In any case, the numbers were down.

[Stillriledup]

If this takeout raise is such a good thing, and nobody really cares about takeout, why not have it plastered all over the front page of the website?

By the way, here we are on Jan 1, 2011 (1 1 11 for those keeping score) and we have Santa Anita raising prices substantially, in this economy, WHO DOES THAT? Is there ANY company out there that's actually raising their prices without giving you something more for your money?

I wonder if there will be big signs at the front gates letting people know that prices have gone up. I have a wild hunch there won't be.

I would be willing to bet that if you went to Santa Anita on Jan 1 and walked thru the track asking the employees what is the current takeout rate, not one person would actually know what you were talking about.

[Canarsie]

Isn't the real winner of the takeout hike Betfair? They must be loving this to no end slipping in the exchange wagering provision at the last moment.

All they have to do is sit on the sidelines till 2012 and then laugh all the way to the bank.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Santa Anita handle was $8,589,752 according to Equibase. Sounds like a lot, but for the corresponding Saturday last year they did $10,597,753. Down 21%. 9 races both years.

Tampa Bay did $5,439,254 on 10 races compared to last year when they ran 11 races and did $4,301,027. They gained 26% with one less race this year.

[jelly]

Santa Anita handle was $8,589,752 according to Equibase. Sounds like a lot, but for the corresponding Saturday last year they did $10,597,753. Down 21%. 9 races both years.

Tampa Bay did $5,439,254 on 10 races compared to last year when they ran 11 races and did $4,301,027. They gained 26% with one less race this year.




These are great numbers for those of us who want to see this game grow. :ThmbUp:

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Santa Anita handle was $8,589,752 according to Equibase. Sounds like a lot, but for the corresponding Saturday last year they did $10,597,753. Down 21%. 9 races both years.

Tampa Bay did $5,439,254 on 10 races compared to last year when they ran 11 races and did $4,301,027. They gained 26% with one less race this year.

Disaster is an understatement!

Those 2 comparisons above show that CA racing will be dead very soon. They will have to end the 25% purse increase and have a further purse reduction at this rate.

We can thank the CHRB (Brackpool, etc.), TOC (Zetcher, Pegram, Auerbach, etc.), CTT (Baffert, etc.), Tracks (Dmr-Fravel/Harper, etc.) for enthusiastically and vocally supporting the takeout increase which pissed off so many customers that it will be a miracle if any of them ever come back.

[The_Knight_Sky]

These are great numbers for those of us who want to see this game grow. :ThmbUp:



Those are two distinct philosophies on display:

a) Short term leeching of the public (Santa Anita)
b) Long Term growth of racing product (Tampa)
___________________________

Santa Anita goes to a 4 day week this week: Thu-Fri-Sat-Sun

The next 5 day week starts on Wednesday, March 2nd.
That is the second half of the meet when the horse inventory
will be at its weakest. The field sizes does not figure to get any better as a result. Handle figures simply will not improve if the boycott is still in effect.

And of course there will be less "churn" among those who can't help themselves. :faint:

Good leadership would cut their losses at this point, and wave the white flag.
I'd like to see Mr. Stronach ask for a "waiver" on the takeout increase to correct the plight of his flagship track before the disaster reaches epic proportions.

So far my contributions to SoCal tracks since Dec. 26th: $0.
At the moment no official start date for the boycott has been announced:
http://www.playersboycott.org/

[David-LV]

Remember and shout it from the rooftops if you have to:

"I will not bet one single dime at Santa Anita until they rescind the higher takeout rates."

________
David-LV

[toussaud]

THE FIELDS THEY are putting out there,aren't helping the cause. 4 horse grade 2 field on the turf, yippiee!

[Stillriledup]

Remember and shout it from the rooftops if you have to:

"I will not bet one single dime at Santa Anita until they rescind the higher takeout rates."

________
David-LV


I think you need to go further and tell them you won't go back ever. Once people start learning to bet other tracks, they're not going to play footsies and keep switching tracks. Even if they lower takeout, they still need to be punished, they need to lose customers for life.