Keeneland

[Valuist]

Still wondering if the track is its usual biased self? Some may conclude that 3 races isn't enough, but considering a neutral non-biased day is almost unheard of there, I would say its safe to assume the rail is always great there, until proven otherwise.

Race 1: 9 furlongs; won wire to wire
Race 2: 6 furlongs: the 1 post won, in virtually wire to wire fashion as it was a head back after the first quarter.
Race 3: 6 furlongs: A 23-1 shot wires from the 2 post while the 5-1 shot from the 1 post runs second. The $154 exacta (for $2) may seem small but you have to figure the real inefficiency was the win price of the 2.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Here is what I see:

Races- splits are pretty even, ITM horses seem to be holding position well, more speed early in the races= no bias on 10/3/03.
Workouts- going back 3 days, I see 4f dirt works a handful of horses very quick, the rest fairly slow, 3/5 second gaps in works not bad. Seems like some workout days are faster than others. Track was probably being adjusted daily with dirt pushed around.
Conclusion- on 10/3/03 early speed was able to hang on regardless of odds because the track was just fast enough to so. If I wanted to bet according to track condition I would watch carefully each day. Just for fun go to Equibase workouts, Keenland, 4f dirt back a few days and check it out! I would still make note of PP's of running lines for early speed regardless of odds, and for the "classiest" horses as real contenders until I saw very obvious change in position or lengths ahead in the stretch with most of the card. Remarkable biases most useful to betteors are slow rails the last 3f. The most classy and consistent horses usually finish close regardless of track condition most days.
I do not really know about Keenland's movable finish line. Do you?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Keenland has a great website! See clocker's corner. Track conditions= says the last graded 10/2/03, 4" cushion. With a 4" cushion, they cannot make the track extremely deep like Calder's 7" anyway!

[Valuist]

Re: the finish line, I thought they started and finished 1 1/16 mile races at the sixteenth pole; I can't swear to that but I thought it was that way, like Oaklawn's finish line in mile races is the sixteenth pole.

Interesting stuff re: the workouts although if the maintenace crew did a lot of work after the am workouts, I would think that would throw that theory off.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Some bettors do not think track daily workouts mean anything during races. I say trends by day or week maybe detected. I do not normally find quick maintenance changes, but they do occur sporatically.
I say the dozens of daily 4f (+3f) works can indicate a trend to watch for during the races. I say when when you have dozens of horses worked for many trainers that is enough to spot trends like track speed. By taking the middle time I eliminate horses that are artificially slow and top early speed horses that throw off the normal horses' times. It is my observation that most horses run close to the same speed if healthy and large individual variations are due to track speed.
I find big overlays betting domestic shippers based on running style, purse, and currenrt track depth. I am just willing to encourage PA group members to check for themselves free as it is new info that eventually everyone will find ways to use. I am always looking for ways to use new info before the crowd figures it out.
Last year American Turf Monthly spotlighted Keenland and it said the finish line moves. No further explaination given.
The only real way to be sure if a large bias existed is to see if the stretch lead lengthened, stayed, or shortened in most of the dirt races after the raceday. Then it is too late to bet high odds for their early speed or closers with class!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Go to equibase; workouts; Hoosier Park, 10/3/03; 4f dirt works. You will see a bullet at 48.2, then most horses between 48.8 and 52.0, with the middle times about 50.0; this is on the line of normal and slow track.
Then go to Equibase full charts; Hoosier Park, 10/3/03. You will see a muddy track all day, and slow rail bias about the last 2f or 3f, due to weather and possibly the crew squeezing water to the rail. Then look at running lines and comments and you will see virtually all horses on the rail fading, and virtually all horses wide finishing without drastic fading.
Of couse this is an extreme but very clear example of what to look for to detect a slow rail bias. Of course if almost all horses wired staying near the rail you would have an extreme example of a fast rail bias!
Just looking back at the DRF spoeed rating or variant at 10/3/03 Hoosier based on finishing times may not tell you how the bias was acting. Ideally keeping a log of actual track speed and biases will give you a big advantage when considering the horse's actual running style. If a closer who ran 10/3/03 at Keenland did lousy and runs later there on a day when the middle 4f work is 50.0 you may consider the play at good odds!

[Kentucky Bred]

Looks to me like 5 of 7 winners came from the 1 or 2 hole. And a bunch on the lead.

I am not a big believer in "biased" tracks for the most part. I used to look for it but once you've figured the bias out, it is gone again. However, I have found Keeneland Race Course (my nemesis) to be incredibly biased. Horses NEVER seem to make up ground on the turn or heading into the stretch. Most times the horse on the lead draws off a bit going into the top of the stretch. Then it is "come and catch me" for the rest of the short stretch.

Watch for this, as it is my newest "discovery" of sorts at the Mighty Green Monster (Keeneland). As far as tendencies go, watch for speed horses to look very prominent early in the card. There are a ton of wire jobs in the first few races, if you notice. It seems that the track changes thoughout the day whether by natural reasons or by track maintenance adjustments (which I believe) between races.

Of course you still got to be right on who will be on the lead and get to the rail to cash. You've also got to hope that nobody else sees what you see or else you get the beautiful 4-5 winner paying a fat $3.60 which I have been trying to beat for years. These horses win frequently and are tough to beat.

Kentucky Bred