Will the Favs be overbet at SA.

[teddy]

Surely they public will play the highest beyers and those will all be from Artificial race tracks. Unless they go back to Fairplex. Which are inflated. How will you play?

[Stillriledup]

I'm going to pass on the SA races for the good of the game. BUT, if i was playing, i would say that horses who raced well at fairplex might be overbet because people are going to be looking hard for ANY hint that a horse might run well on an actual real racetrack. Personally, i would look for horses who raced well in October or early November and got a little 'freshening' for this meet.

Also, remember that trainers knew about the Ca purse increase weeks and weeks ago, so they had the ability to 'freshen' up their quality stock. I feel that i would give the edge to a horse who is off a 2 or 3 month layoff as opposed to a horse who ran his guts out at hollywood and had 2 or 3 starts crammed into December who is supposedly 'more fit'.

Horses off layoffs of 2 or 3 months will be dead fit for this meet, these guys aren't playing around, they know purses will be higher, they're going to have the bullets ready to fire. (layoffs of 5 months or more might indicate a more severe problem, but the shorter layoffs, horses who fired big in October and then were freshened might be the best bets)

[tbwinner]

I think the shippers may be overbet - especially with Asmussen coming over with some of his stock to run at SA. Shippers with dirt races will be bet down, we'll see how much and how the SA track plays with a few race days.

I will not be playing it due to the takeout increase.

[pdxmike]

Who cares... They won't get a dime from me.

[highnote]

Same here. I won't be betting SA or any California racing for that matter. The only time I will be interested in a horse that races in California is when it ships out of state to race.

The 10% increase in takeout from 20 to 22 percent on exacta betting is too high.

[redshift1]

Surely they public will play the highest beyers and those will all be from Artificial race tracks. Unless they go back to Fairplex. Which are inflated. How will you play?

To many unknowns , I'll wait for a month or so until patterns emerge. I only bet for fun so the larger take-out is a non-factor.

I thought the synthetics yielded lower beyers than dirt?

[Spiderman]

I will be passing on SA, due to the takeout increase. If I were to play, waiting a week or two would be the wise course to see if a pronounced track bias develops. It may become speed favoring, is my guess.

[BlueShoe]

With more showers predicted overnight, things could get even more muddled. Could get an off new main track instead of just a new main track. How many entrants show good dirt off track ability? In addition, the Sir Beaufort and the other grass race could be switched to the main. May make a small token wager in the Malibu on Alcindor, but other than that, likely will skip the rest of the card, and concentrate on the out of state simo races.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I wonder what opening day handle will be. Last year they did around $14 million, the year before about $15 million. Last year they opened on a Saturday, the year before a Friday. Last year they didn't have the Mid Atlantic Co-op taking their signal, and overall industry handle was down for the year, as it is this year as well.
Field size isn't an issue as all three opening days (including tomorrow) had relatively full fields in most races, though there might be a few scratches tomorrow.
Last time opening day was a Sunday was back in 2004 (total handle in North America was higher back then too. They did around $15.7 million in handle. It was on dirt as well. But it wasn't back to dirt.
This year's factors include Horseplayer backlash. Many have ceased betting on California even though the boycott date has yet to be announced, and the takeout hike doesn't kick in until the new year.

I'm going to predict $13.2 million in handle.

[BlueShoe]

likely will skip the rest of the card, and concentrate on the out of state simo races.
24 hours out, there is nothing to concentrate on. Because of holiday commitments, have not been able to get a DRF yet or do any capping. However, would like to know the simo schedule for Sunday. For most of you this is not an issue, but for those of us in California that go to the track or otb, it is. The schedule is in pdf format usually put out well in advance, and that is the problem. Santa Anitas website still has the November schedule up! A check of HOL and DMR sites only go to Dec 19, and then stops. Who the heck determines the simo tracks and is responsible for publishing the schedule? The CHRB or the host track? While this is only a minor issue, it is annoying, and shows a lack of planning by those running things. Do know who is racing Sunday, so am guessing that we will get hopefully Tampa, along with Turfway, Fair Grounds, Hawthorne, and ?

[jelly]

I can't believe Cal. still has limited simulcast. :bang:

[teddy]

Im predicting an increase.. plenty of money from xmas and boredom ..lol full fields and very few players care about the 2% increase. Gamblers are gamblers..

[BlueShoe]

I can't believe Cal. still has limited simulcast. :bang:
A total of no more than 32 out of state races permitted to be simulcast each day. Canadian or South American tracks do not count against the total for some reason, so therefore during its long meeting we get Woodbine plus the other 32. The bad part is that often do not get the entire card of an out of state track, can start with race 3 or 4. Infuriating to find a horse in an earlier race that you really like but cannot bet and watch it win at a good price or cannot use in a pik 3 or pik 4 sequence. In a so called "progressive" state California is in the dark ages on this one. Have checked other states websites and looked at their simo schedule, and almost all of them have a much broader selection to choose from.

[Southieboy]

Major snowstorm likely to affect handle. Will be surprised in AQU and BEL open for simulcasts tomorrow.

[garyoz]

I think there could be a high probability for a pronounced track bias. Could be speed favoring, or if there is a path bias, horses with tactical speed and a jock smart enough to identify the path could have an edge. Except for making a statement about the takeout change (which I fully understand), I can't imagine not wanting to play SA this week. You may be able to identify an additional edge. IMHO it won't be about synthetic vs. dirt form, but about the condition of the track.

I've also seen new tracks or opening week tracks be death valley on the rail. The rain deluge this past week also plays into the uncertainty. I think you can get an edge if you pay attention.

[skate]

i see the figures every day and it seems to me that at So. Cal. the Favorites are most always overbet.

Specially their exoticals, not even close to sane payoffs.

Opening week should bring some prices, even for S.A.:)