superfecta question

[so.cal.fan]

We all know that if I sit down in a poker game with $20K worth of chips and you sit down with $20.00 worth......I will probably take your twenty bucks in short order, even if you are a much better player than I am.
My question is, I hope I can word this so it makes sense:
If the superfecta pools are large.......and the average ticket put in is say, $30.00..........could a consistent big ticket out buy the average player.......sort of like the pick six pools. If you are putting in a $36 ticket everyday, and a syndicate or big players are putting up an average $3600 ticket........I would think they would have a big edge over the average guy?
Would the same theory be true with the supers? Would small incomplete tickets padding the pool help overcome the high takeout a big ticket would hit more often?

[PSTfredk]

i think at belmont that might work as they have only one a day.

but if you go to some tracks that have a super in almost every race you are going to get creamed.

it really hard to bet syndicate as they have enough money to cover most bases. but they pick there spots it has to be hugh
for them to invest pay off that is. you only hear about the winners
you don'y know how many they bet and lost between wins.

stick to tri and i think you come out better. only play the wones

where you know what it might pay because your four horses
have great odds. look for the ones where you top pick is going off at 3/1 or better and all your other horses are equal or higher odds. look at R# 9 wed 10/1 and see what i mean

1a/9/5/10

[Larry Hamilton]

This post caused me to relook at the superfectas. After a quick look, I found 13 supers available yesterday. I looked at only those races while asking the question--"How does my top 4 picks do boxed?", then I asked "Box 5?"

I found that I picked 2 with four numbers boxed and one more with 5....Since they all paid over 1000, you could say, it got my attention.

Boxing 4 for a 2 dollar ticket costs $48 and boxing 5 costs $120, so its pretty steep to play this game while turning a gillion percent ROI. One bad day and you would starve to death getting rich! Will report offline to any who asks as I am sure many you dont want to hear from me on this.
============================

As to the question asked, there are two points to consider. As it is a superfecta, the more important question is "What is my win rate?". The ROI question USUALLY is not relavent (unless all you picks are 4:5) with a pick 4. The question, "Can deep pockets overwhelm a small better?"--absolutely! But occasionally, they are going to send $3600 after $1500 and you may have chased the same $1500 with $48--now that is a chuckle.

[PSTfredk]

i was just pointing out that you could bx them but a better way\to play in my opinion is a tri wheel.

example i am using four horses my top four you can

bet all four over any of the other two over the other two that you didn't put in the second slot using only the four horses that you think are best this cost 8$.

if you like a long shot approach you can use your top six horses

top four horse over your fifth and six pick over two of the first four
picks a 12$ cost mite hit a wiz bagger.

5 horse wheel
12345
12 this how i play tri's
34
total= 12$

you can place the 5picks any place and put two off the five in any two places and it stillcost= 12$

[superfecta]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
We all know that if I sit down in a poker game with $20K worth of chips and you sit down with $20.00 worth......I will probably take your twenty bucks in short order, even if you are a much better player than I am.
My question is, I hope I can word this so it makes sense:
If the superfecta pools are large.......and the average ticket put in is say, $30.00..........could a consistent big ticket out buy the average player.......sort of like the pick six pools. If you are putting in a $36 ticket everyday, and a syndicate or big players are putting up an average $3600 ticket........I would think they would have a big edge over the average guy?
Would the same theory be true with the supers? Would small incomplete tickets padding the pool help overcome the high takeout a big ticket would hit more often? So Cal,I approach the bet as a better bet for the small ticket player,as oppposed to big ticket bets.If you are betting smaller tickets and limited combos,you have just as much chance to score a profit as the big ticket bettor.The reason being you don't have to be right a majority of the time and it relies heavily on your skill as a handicapper,as opposed to betting multiple bets (extremely stupid) or having to win a high amount of bets (in order to stay profitable.)Efficiency of your bet is a must,not the number of bets or the amount wagered.If you have a good idea of the race and it takes $12 dollars to cover your horses,it is not a better bet to wager $60 and cover all the combos of your chosen horses,because you may lose the bet entirely or win and still lose money.Having multiple tickets is not a good strategy,since the super pays so much,having two tickets or more is wasteful.
So to answer your question,No,big bettors do not have a edge over the small bettor due to the law of diminishing returns.But thankfully that is not widely understood or followed due to the ego of most horsplayers,namely they want to win the race,not make money.

[sq764]

I would be so disgusted to miss a super, but have the trifecta that paid a good amount.

I guess the safeguard of that is to play the same numbers in a triefecta, but I still would somehow miss it :-)

[so.cal.fan]

Interesting comments,
Superfecta:
I like your answer. It does make sense.
I asked this question for someone else. I do not play anything but win, since I find it against my character to "spread the net".
I rarely even bet two horses in the same race to win. It is just my nature to take a stand.
I remember years ago, the late actor Vince Edwards told us " I once hit a 5-10 (pick six) at Caliente for $100,000........and I have spent nearly a million trying to hit another one.

[PSTfredk]

i agree with you that betting to win is the right way to play

but betting a little to win a lot makes sence some times

i almost never lpay supers.

i do play tri using a wheeling system

only play those that will return good R>O>I's

one a day or maybe two

total played per wager either 8$ per race my usual bet

12$ bet if i like a lot of horses i think can get in the money

some times very rare i wheel a horse over the others

i usually play all my picks on top four horses
and use the same picks under two and two mix and match