Mini Whale Tale

[Handiman]

There has been so much talk recently about Whale's the timing couldn't be better for me to pass this tale on. I am doing so the tale may be told and a chance for me to brag a little I think. I have been fighting health issues again so not much has been happening cept this:

As most know I helped write the program Handifast. Quite a few members here at PA use it along with other stuff. One day several months ago a PA member contacted me and asked a few questions about the program. Then a week later he called back and said he liked the program, that it gave him an idea. He then proceeded to ask me if I could write a program for him based on his idea.

There were a couple of ideas he had developed using Handifast, and thought maybe I could give him a program that would specifically fit his needs. Now the nice thing about this is if I could, there would be a nice payday for me. I accepted. There were some conditions of course, but they were ones I could live with. Those conditions were as follows.

Object was to create a spot play so the player could play like a Whale. It had to provide enough action so he could make a living on the proceeds..it had to hit enough percentage wise that he could risk large sums per race and not go broke...but as I said live on the return the program would provide. Once the program was delivered, he would test it for 200 races before I would see any benefit. Also I was to sit with him for a week and watch him use the software and watch him make bets in case there were any bugs that popped up while he was playing. I was Sworn to secrecy and required to sign non-disclosure documents.

So I set out and wrote such a program. I then sat in a room with him for a week and watched him make his bets on the programs selections. I tell this tale now because he has just hit the 200 race barrier, actually a bit over. So my first payment was delivered today. I am thrilled I might add. After another 200 races are played I get the 2nd half of the payment promised.

He told me I could post the results of the first 200 but that was all, nothing else. So here's what's occurred as best I can lay it out.

First of all I don't know what constitutes a Whale so any way here's what happened.

Over 200, 224 actually, plays the program has spit out.

There are approximately 70-75 plays per month.

The hit rate for the first test batch is 95.5%

Producing 6% profit.

Another 6.5% in rebates.

As of right now he has a 35 race streak going without a miss. And he is 47 out of the last 48 races.

That is all I know right now. But he is extremely happy as was shown by the size of payment.

I am keeping my fingers crossed as we go through winter and another 200 plays.

Is he a whale I don't know. Is he a mini whale I would say yes.

Thanks for reading.

Handi:)

[misscashalot]

The hit rate for the first test batch is 95.5%

Producing 6% profit.

Another 6.5% in rebates.

As of right now he has a 35 race streak going without a miss. And he is 47 out of the last 48 races.


Handi:)

95% with 6% profit?:confused:

[Gapfire]

95% with 6% profit?:confused:

These must be super-favorites paying 1/9.

[Handiman]

I have no reason to lie. I am not selling anything nor am I programming right now because of my health.

I told this story because I didn't believe it could be done. But I have sat for over a week and watched a man play 3 to 7 plays on average a day spread over multiple tracks.

The hit rate is exactly as I have posted. The bets are between $400 and $800 a race. You figure it out. I have seen him even bet a race with $1500 bet. That was only once in my presence.

There exists what I call a Teeter-Totter effect in racing. It's available to all who play the game. Mutuals go up strike rate can go down. But if Mutuals go down, strike rate must go up. It's that simple but not easy to do.

Again criticize me if you want, but again I have nothing to sell nor am I programming for anyone. Nor do I plan to in the near future. I'm just proud of the job I have done for someone. That's all and I thought you'd find the story interesting.

Handi:)

[misscashalot]

I have no reason to lie. I am not selling anything nor am I programming right now because of my health.

I told this story because I didn't believe it could be done. But I have sat for over a week and watched a man play 3 to 7 plays on average a day spread over multiple tracks.

The hit rate is exactly as I have posted. The bets are between $400 and $800 a race. You figure it out. I have seen him even bet a race with $1500 bet. That was only once in my presence.

There exists what I call a Teeter-Totter effect in racing. It's available to all who play the game. Mutuals go up strike rate can go down. But if Mutuals go down, strike rate must go up. It's that simple but not easy to do.

Again criticize me if you want, but again I have nothing to sell nor am I programming for anyone. Nor do I plan to in the near future. I'm just proud of the job I have done for someone. That's all and I thought you'd find the story interesting.

Handi:)

Im not critizing you but the numbers just don't add up. averaging 3 to 7??? ( average means one number. ) at 75 per month it's more likely 3. The 6-1/2 rebate is a non-factor since any one playing any way can get a rebate. If your figures are correct he's a guy who has a no-pain-tolerance disposition, and like Silas Marner relishes stacking up his pennies and watching them grow. Seems like there must be a better way to profits 6%. putting thousands on the line. The racing gods sure have a way of throwing non-winning streak roadblocks on the way to the kingdom of riches.

[Gapfire]

I wasn't criticizing you either. I was just saying that with a 95% hit rate, and a 6% profit, the prices would have to be low. I hope the program continues to hit at this hight rate.

[Handiman]

I spoke to him tonight on the phone. Mon and Tuesday this week there we no plays. Tomorrow he has 7. Last week on one day he had 9.

I don't play this way. I just wrote the program. I don't have the patience nor the money to play like that. I'm not suggesting anyone else play that way. It's just this is the only experience I have had with a Whale or wannabe Whale.

It was a fun and interesting adventure for me, and quite lucrative if it holds up. And interesting in the face of all I have heard over the years as it can't be done. Well I have physically witnessed it!

I did some figuring and as it stands now he will make about $3000-5000 a month give or take...for doing nothing but sitting on his ass and betting from home. I'd be interested to see how many others on this board are making that kind of money a month consistently. Also whales don't play without a rebate.

Please tell me how many players here are getting 9.5% rebates at some tracks. Maybe more than I think. And it's not about the winning % as I understand it, it is about how much money he can put in his bank account every month without breaking a sweat.

Again it's not me doing it. I couldn't play this way. I don't have the temperment for it.

Handi:)

[Stillriledup]

Is he betting show? Seems like in order to cash 95% of the time, you have to be selectively betting heavy favorites to show.

[Gapfire]

Yes, this certainly is interesting. How much time did you put into the programming?

[misscashalot]

I wasn't criticizing you either. I was just saying that with a 95% hit rate, and a 6% profit, the prices would have to be low. I hope the program continues to hit at this hight rate.

I think not. Probably betting 3 to 5 horses in race at varying odds in the low to mid price range. At 95% strike would have to be that way. He'd win a race and lose $ but make it up down the road. That's the way I would have it if I were writing a novel. But still he would be a tight player and have to be very selective. But even if it were so, there are better ways to risk $ at higher returns.

[Gapfire]

I think not. Probably betting 3 to 5 horses in race at varying odds in the low to mid price range. At 95% strike would have to be that way. He'd win a race and lose $ but make it up down the road. That's the way I would have it if I were writing a novel. But still he would be a tight player and have to be very selective. But even if it were so, there are better ways to risk $ at higher returns.

This man is a whale, he's not betting 3-5 horses in a race, he is hammering one low priced horse that meets his criteria. He has to be patient, because the horses that meet his criteria, are not all that plentiful.

[Handiman]

I spent a few weeks on the program. It had to handle all the tracks scheduled for a day. It produces a one horse selection.

As I understand it he used to dutch several horses as he had a live odds feed. The program he used was written by several programmers....but with the late money flowing in it screwed up his pricing model.

So he had been searching for something else for quite sometime when he stumbled across Handifast. I wish I could say that that was all he needed but it did spur him on to some new ideas.

Hand:)

[Gapfire]

So, he is no longer dutching?

[Handiman]

No. The odds can change so much after the horses are off. He dutched based on one set of odds, and by the time the horses were nearing the first 1/4 the odds had all changed.

I don't know if dutching is really all that meaningful anymore because of all the late money. I use to dutch also, but the same thing was happening to me. And I only bet $20-30 a race. Peanuts compared to a lot of players on here.

I don't know if the program will hold up. I sure hope so, cause it means some nice bucks in my pocket. But we'll see where it stands in about 3 months time. It may all fall apart. If it does I will be sad....sad cause I'll miss that next payment...LOL:lol: :blush:

Handi:)

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I wasn't criticizing you either. I was just saying that with a 95% hit rate, and a 6% profit, the prices would have to be low.

avg payoff of $2.22 for each $2 bet?

[lamboguy]

i believe it. it all depends what you are looking for in the program. a 6% roi is a tremendous result. kuddo's to the guy that is making money on it.

since this game is parimutuel, the more money that comes in this system, the less of a probability it is to profit from it. if you tilt an oddsboard as little as 1% you can turn a winner into a loser.

for all the people that sit at home and bet horses today using programs, it has become very difficult to show a profit. the days of the racetracks full with people without tools is numbered. when everyone has the same tools, then the law of diminishing returns sets in.

[SchagFactorToWin]

Well, Handi, I think that's awesome. It must have been great fun to work on that project.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

avg payoff of $2.22 for each $2 bet?
That is the only thing that makes sense when looking at the strike rate and the ROI...unless this is someone who dutches. If that is the case, the 96% hit rate is very deceptive. Though any system that results in a positive 6% ROI is great.

[Handiman]

It was a fun project to do. As I said though it's not the style I like to play.

There is no dutching at all...one horse and that's it. Also we or I should say he, has just passed the 200 race mark which is the first benchmark that had to be attained before I got my first payment. That has been successful and the money done arrived....Yea!!:jump:

Now the 2nd benchmark is running and we'll see in 200 more races where he stands and if I get the other have of my payoff. Man I sure hope so.

For him it's all about steady income. Not playing for the fun of it or anything else. Not to claim he's a great 'Capper, just about the MONEY every month.

Handi:)

[teddy]

Kudos to this masked man for his work with selective chalk. My posts have proven hitting 95% place and s how horses are easily achievable with my 75% win stats. Chalk eating weasels rule!

[PICSIX]

Can you get a rebate of 6.5% for show bets??? Maybe he bets across the board on the single selection.

[Niko]

Thanks for sharing and keep us posted.!..shows there's more than one way to win...

think it would be awfully hard to keep that up but even breaking even or a slight loss would be great with a high hit rate and rebates

[Jay Trotter]

Handi, thanks for sharing your experience!

Very interesting to hear about your peek under the hood of a substantial player!

Good stuff :ThmbUp:

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

The bets are between $400 and $800 a race.I have seen him even bet $1500.

So,the actual wagering portion is based on his own money management system?Or does he just go by intuition?
Anything,other than the former,could easily lead to disaster,notwithstanding the excellent results of your program.

[Handiman]

I hope I don't get in trouble for this...doubt that I will. I'm not letting out any big secret....but to answer your question the program actually produces picks on two levels.

Level 1 gets bigger bet and level 2 gets smaller bet. Level 1 has not missed yet. But there are fewer Level 1's than 2's naturally.

Handi:)

[lsosa54]

Handi: The only way I could see hitting a 95% success rate is on a one horse show bet. My method's last 72 one horse show plays, as an example, hit at an 87.5% rate and produced a 2.4% ROI. Depending on the snapshot time frame, my show ROI has dipped as low as -2%, so the range has been -2% to +2%-too many $2.10 mutuels. For that reason, I don't bother with show betting but I will also say I have not explored a rebate if there is such a thing on show.

If you guys can sustain that 95% hit rate with that roi plus the rebates (where are you getting show rebates?), more power to you. I wish you much success because I personally know how hard it is.

[Handiman]

Thanks buddy. First off, I am not getting them. I just did the program and am in the mix in case a bug pops up. But also I only get a payout if the numbers hold up.

He bets though a very exclusive ADW or Rebate house. He gets between 2.5 and 9 percent on his bets depending on the track he's playing. But he is small fish compared to the other bettors as I understand it. He is able to fly under the radar since most of the other guys run Big money through the windows.

Handi:)

[teddy]

There are show rebates a plenty, unless you hit the negative pools then you are out of luck. Developing a place bet with the same roi is much more realistic and you are almost assured your rebates exept some extreme situations.

[GARY Z]

I'm not knocking your efforts, but wouldn't your system draw more appeal from picking value plays at "reasonable" odds above 1-9/3-5 etc..

[vegasone]

One would think that a system is what it is....changing it to something else would make it a different system.

[Handiman]

The program fit the needs of the buyer and that is all I was concerned about. I don't use the program for various reasons.

Handi:)