Farallon injured in Hollywood Park's 3rd race.

[Stillriledup]

Farallon was pulled up and vanned off out of today's (Dec 9) 3rd race at Hollywood Park. She appeared to be a private purchase out of a smashing debut win at Golden Gate. She was claimed for 80 grand today in a high stakes poker game. I found it unusual that an expensive private purchase would be risked for an 80k tag in her next start. Did Reddam pay LESS than 80k for this filly off of that win? That would be interesting to know.

Unfortunate situation for the new owners. (not to mention the bettors who singled her in the first leg of the huge carryover today).

[cj]

Faralon was pulled up and vanned off out of today's (Dec 9) 3rd race at Hollywood Park. She appeared to be a private purchase out of a smashing debut win at Golden Gate. She was claimed for 80 grand today in a high stakes poker game. I found it unusual that an expensive private purchase would be risked for an 80k tag in hier next start. Did Reddam pay LESS than 80k for this filly off of that win? That would be interesting to know.

Unfortunate situation for the new owners. (not to mention the bettors who singled her in the first leg of the huge carryover today).

I would say it is extremely likely she was purchased for MUCH LESS than 80k. She was entered for 32k first out.

[Stillriledup]

I would say it is extremely likely she was purchased for MUCH LESS than 80k. She was entered for 32k first out.

I dont know about that. Her win was super, she was under a hammerlock and could have won by 20 lengths if she needed to. Even though she was in for 32, the price goes up substantially when you are that visually impressive. I would imagine the price was very close to, or more than, 80k.

[cj]

I dont know about that. Her win was super, she was under a hammerlock and could have won by 20 lengths if she needed to. Even though she was in for 32, the price goes up substantially when you are that visually impressive. I would imagine the price was very close to, or more than, 80k.

It was a bad field, and it wasn't particularly faster either. She crawled early and ran away from hopeless slugs.

All that aside, the price TODAY tells you all you need to know in my opinion. I'm guessing they paid little more than the 32k she was offered for in her debut.

[Stillriledup]

It was a bad field, and it wasn't particularly faster either. She crawled early and ran away from hopeless slugs.

All that aside, the price TODAY tells you all you need to know in my opinion. I'm guessing they paid little more than the 32k she was offered for in her debut.

The new owners thought she was worth 80 off that win......if Reddam only gave the original owners 40 (or thereabouts) where were these people with their 80 to buy her (AND, get to vet her out themselves) the day after she won? Also, if the original owner did sell her to Reddam for 40 (or, thereabouts) what was wrong with her? In other words, if she vetted out great, why would they sell such a promising horse for 40? It doesnt make sense.

[cj]

The new owners thought she was worth 80 off that win......if Reddam only gave the original owners 40 (or thereabouts) where were these people with their 80 to buy her (AND, get to vet her out themselves) the day after she won? Also, if the original owner did sell her to Reddam for 40 (or, thereabouts) what was wrong with her? In other words, if she vetted out great, why would they sell such a promising horse for 40? It doesnt make sense.

You and I have different definitions of promising horses, so there isn't much else to say.

[Brogan]

The new owners thought she was worth 80 off that win......if Reddam only gave the original owners 40 (or thereabouts) where were these people with their 80 to buy her (AND, get to vet her out themselves) the day after she won? Also, if the original owner did sell her to Reddam for 40 (or, thereabouts) what was wrong with her? In other words, if she vetted out great, why would they sell such a promising horse for 40? It doesnt make sense.
A bird in the hand.....is worth more than promise.

[Relwob Owner]

The new owners thought she was worth 80 off that win......if Reddam only gave the original owners 40 (or thereabouts) where were these people with their 80 to buy her (AND, get to vet her out themselves) the day after she won? Also, if the original owner did sell her to Reddam for 40 (or, thereabouts) what was wrong with her? In other words, if she vetted out great, why would they sell such a promising horse for 40? It doesnt make sense.



I am with you here SRU....I think the higher sales price makes more sense than the lower one....stands to reason that if she had no issues, the sellers wouldnt have sold her for 30-40K and if she did have any issues, she may not have been bought at all.

[cj]

I am with you here SRU....I think the higher sales price makes more sense than the lower one....stands to reason that if she had no issues, the sellers wouldnt have sold her for 30-40K and if she did have any issues, she may not have been bought at all.

They entered for for 32k, basically telling the world she was about a 16k claimer after she breaks her maiden. Now, if some people were fooled by her phony victory, there isn't much I can say about that.

The runner up dropped to 20k for the win and won a starter race, about the same thing as a 32k claimer, with mid 50 Beyers. The 3rd finisher can't win or even come close for 12k. The 4th finisher has a few well beaten seconds for 20k. The 5th horse is dreadful, and the last place horse won for 8k at Fresno before returning to getting drubbed at bigger tracks for cheap prices.

[Relwob Owner]

They entered for for 32k, basically telling the world she was about a 16k claimer after she breaks her maiden. Now, if some people were fooled by her phony victory, there isn't much I can say about that.

The runner up dropped to 20k for the win and won a starter race, about the same thing as a 32k claimer, with mid 50 Beyers. The 3rd finisher can't win or even come close for 12k. The 4th finisher has a few well beaten seconds for 20k. The 5th horse is dreadful, and the last place horse won for 8k at Fresno before returning to getting drubbed at bigger tracks for cheap prices.


Im not questioning how good the horse's first race was, just analyzing the circumstances........if O'Neill had a view of the horse similar to the yours above, why run her next in an 80K claimer?

[Relwob Owner]

They entered for for 32k, basically telling the world she was about a 16k claimer after she breaks her maiden. Now, if some people were fooled by her phony victory, there isn't much I can say about that.

The runner up dropped to 20k for the win and won a starter race, about the same thing as a 32k claimer, with mid 50 Beyers. The 3rd finisher can't win or even come close for 12k. The 4th finisher has a few well beaten seconds for 20k. The 5th horse is dreadful, and the last place horse won for 8k at Fresno before returning to getting drubbed at bigger tracks for cheap prices.



The amazing thing is that it looks like two people had access to the same info you do and could have come up with the same analysis and yet still, both bought the horse....the one today was even more amazing in that he paid 80K for an O'Neill horse......ugh

[cj]

The amazing thing is that it looks like two people had access to the same info you do and could have come up with the same analysis and yet still, both bought the horse....the one today was even more amazing in that he paid 80K for an O'Neill horse......ugh

People in California are desperate for horses.

[johnhannibalsmith]

The only reason I can see this one being worth more than the 40k to someone in California, and why it might have seemed like a good claim if it wasn't a great spot to win - don't they still write those CALbred 40k starters like candy there?

[Stillriledup]

They entered for for 32k, basically telling the world she was about a 16k claimer after she breaks her maiden. Now, if some people were fooled by her phony victory, there isn't much I can say about that.

The runner up dropped to 20k for the win and won a starter race, about the same thing as a 32k claimer, with mid 50 Beyers. The 3rd finisher can't win or even come close for 12k. The 4th finisher has a few well beaten seconds for 20k. The 5th horse is dreadful, and the last place horse won for 8k at Fresno before returning to getting drubbed at bigger tracks for cheap prices.

You keep talking about her competition. What does her competition have to do with HER as an individual? Of course her competition was going to be weak, it was a maiden 32. She was a wrapped up winner, she could have won by many more lengths than she did, its not her fault the runners behind her were slow. I mean, under your theory, if a fast horse gets put into a race vs slow competition, that means she's also slow? Seeing a winner's competition is only one way of many to sniff out a potential purchase.

[Mineshaft]

why didnt they put her in a 40K Starter? That tells me they didnt pay 80K for her. If they did pay 80K then i would think they would of went the Starter route 1st time out.

And why the 4 month layoff?

[Mineshaft]

I would say it is extremely likely she was purchased for MUCH LESS than 80k. She was entered for 32k first out.





agree i think they probably payed 50-60K for her

[Mineshaft]

oh hell this was a N1X and they didnt even protect her. very fishy......

[plainolebill]

I don't particularly like O'neill and I don't know the details (everyone else is guessing too) but it's not unusual to see shrewd trainers start an unknown quantity in an OCL for a tag hoping they'll win, not get claimed and still have the condition left.

[Robert Goren]

Another case of a fool parting with his money. It happens all the time at race tracks.

[cj]

You keep talking about her competition. What does her competition have to do with HER as an individual? Of course her competition was going to be weak, it was a maiden 32. She was a wrapped up winner, she could have won by many more lengths than she did, its not her fault the runners behind her were slow. I mean, under your theory, if a fast horse gets put into a race vs slow competition, that means she's also slow? Seeing a winner's competition is only one way of many to sniff out a potential purchase.

Well, I would say the "could have won by many more lengths" is a huge fallacy. Horses don't run faster when pressured, they run faster when relaxed.

[Stillriledup]

Well, I would say the "could have won by many more lengths" is a huge fallacy. Horses don't run faster when pressured, they run faster when relaxed.

Is it? Did you even watch the race?

[cj]

Is it? Did you even watch the race?

Yes...I mean it doesn't mean she could run faster in the future. Horses run better against overmatched fields, not tougher ones.

[domino1891]

Farallon, the 2-1 second choice, was pulled up on the turn and vanned off, with an injury to her left foreleg, according to track officials. The filly was claimed by Mike Puype in a four-way shake. Thursday, Farallon was making her debut for trainer Doug O'Neill and owner Paul Reddam, who bought her privately following a victory by 8 1-2 lengths in a $32,000 claimer for maidens at Golden Gate Fields on Aug. 26.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/hollywood-upset-starts-pick-6

[andymays]

Here are the PP's.

[Stillriledup]

Yes...I mean it doesn't mean she could run faster in the future. Horses run better against overmatched fields, not tougher ones.

4 different trainers thought she was worth more than 80.

[cj]

4 different trainers thought she was worth more than 80.

So? Looks like they were wrong, no?

Since when are owners and trainers automatically experts?

[Stillriledup]

So? Looks like they were wrong, no?

Since when are owners and trainers automatically experts?

One trainer isn't automatically an expert, but when 4 of them all agree this filly was worth more than 80, i tend to think that there's a good chance she was. Things dont always work out, but these trainers agreed that she was worth 80+ off her tape.

[cj]

One trainer isn't automatically an expert, but when 4 of them all agree this filly was worth more than 80, i tend to think that there's a good chance she was. Things dont always work out, but these trainers agreed that she was worth 80+ off her tape.

They were wrong.

[Stillriledup]

They were wrong.

Hindsight is 20 20.

They weren't wrong because of the reason you thought they were wrong, they just took a bad beat the horse broke down. Its not like they were wrong becuase the horse wasn't talented. I mean, if she got the lead and just stopped with no talent, than you were right about her stinking and they were wrong. We will never know if she was a super talent who took a bad step.

[cj]

Hindsight is 20 20.

They weren't wrong because of the reason you thought they were wrong, they just took a bad beat the horse broke down. Its not like they were wrong becuase the horse wasn't talented. I mean, if she got the lead and just stopped with no talent, than you were right about her stinking and they were wrong. We will never know if she was a super talent who took a bad step.

How do you know she had talent? I'd have given the same opinion of the horse before the race. I tossed her instantly.

[GaryG]

The good news is that she is expected to recover and be bred next year.

http://drf.com/news/horse-claimed-8000-injured-retired

[FenceBored]

The good news is that she is expected to recover and be bred next year.

http://drf.com/news/horse-claimed-8000-injured-retired

Money quote:
“She’ll never race,” he said. “She’s done. We’ve got an $80,000 broodmare that’s not worth $80,000.”
-- http://drf.com/news/horse-claimed-8000-injured-retired

[Mineshaft]

Money quote:“She’ll never race,” he said. “She’s done. We’ve got an $80,000 broodmare that’s not worth $80,000.”

-- http://drf.com/news/horse-claimed-8000-injured-retired







Puype whining like a baby. If they claimed her for 80K she should be worth 80K as a broodmoare right?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Puype whining like a baby. If they claimed her for 80K she should be worth 80K as a broodmoare right?

Is this sarcasm or a serious question? If a serious question, the answer is absolutely not. Mares race every day for tags of 10k, 20k, 30k, 50k and 80k that aren't worth 25% of their claiming price as a broodmare.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I would say it is extremely likely she was purchased for MUCH LESS than 80k. She was entered for 32k first out.

That's where they thought she belonged racing BEFORE they raced her. Xtra Heat broke her maiden in a MCL 25k.

[Mineshaft]

Is this sarcasm or a serious question? If a serious question, the answer is absolutely not. Mares race every day for tags of 10k, 20k, 30k, 50k and 80k that aren't worth 25% of their claiming price as a broodmare.





very serious question

she might not be worth 80K as a broodmare because she hasnt produced anything yet but on paper it looks like she was worth close to 80K as a racing prospect before they claimed her.

[Mineshaft]

Money quote:“She’ll never race,” he said. “She’s done. We’ve got an $80,000 broodmare that’s not worth $80,000.”

-- http://drf.com/news/horse-claimed-8000-injured-retired









No claiming insurance was had on this horse i guess.

[BlueShoe]

Odd race, perhaps there was more than one filly that was not right. With Farallon out of the race, that should have made things easy for the 6-5 favorite, Sugarinthemorning, who had shown speed against better in her last and had the best fig in the field in her next to last. Instead, she backed up badly in the lane to finish 4th. She never really looked good at any stage of the race to me, as if she may have been in some discomfort.

[Mineshaft]

so what was the injury to Fallon did they say?

[FenceBored]

so what was the injury to Fallon did they say?

Tendon.

[Spalding No!]

why didnt they put her in a 40K Starter? That tells me they didnt pay 80K for her. If they did pay 80K then i would think they would of went the Starter route 1st time out.

And why the 4 month layoff?

I wonder how the 4 trainers that put claims in for this filly resolved these issues you brought up before dropping on her.

Particularly when Reddam is known for running his horses over their heads. In fact, Farallon was nominated to the Grade 1 Oak Leaf by Doug O'Neill in early October. Curiously, she was not nominated to the two stakes later in the meet, including the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies.

[Fager Fan]

Puype whining like a baby. If they claimed her for 80K she should be worth 80K as a broodmoare right?

No. A filly with a mdn clm win with that pedigree is worth close to $0 as a broodmare prospect. Her worth was based soley on her racing prospects (and if good enough, she could earn her way into having value as a broodmare).

[Fager Fan]

No claiming insurance was had on this horse i guess.

Only mortality insurance is offered on racehorses. She lived so therefore insurance doesn't come into play.

[Saratoga_Mike]

very serious question

she might not be worth 80K as a broodmare because she hasnt produced anything yet but on paper it looks like she was worth close to 80K as a racing prospect before they claimed her.

As a racing prospect, I agree with you. IF she vetted out, I suspect they paid $50k to $70k for her after the maiden win.

[Mineshaft]

Only mortality insurance is offered on racehorses. She lived so therefore insurance doesn't come into play.





they have mortality and claiming insurance

[Mineshaft]

I wonder how the 4 trainers that put claims in for this filly resolved these issues you brought up before dropping on her.

Particularly when Reddam is known for running his horses over their heads. In fact, Farallon was nominated to the Grade 1 Oak Leaf by Doug O'Neill in early October. Curiously, she was not nominated to the two stakes later in the meet, including the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies.






Then she had a tendon problem and they didnt nominate because of the tendon. They knew what they were doing..

[Saratoga_Mike]

they have mortality and claiming insurance

Where? Who sells it?

[Tee]

Isn't claiming insurance tied to mortality?

[Mineshaft]

Where? Who sells it?





Chris Kotulak sells it for a company out of Kentucky i cant remember the name. Oh its Yearsley Bloodstock i think they have a website.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Chris Kotulak sells it for a company out of Kentucky i cant remember the name. Oh its Yearsley Bloodstock i think they have a website.

Their "claiming insurance" is in essence short-term mortality insurance.

http://www.yearsleybloodstockgroup.com/#12

Are you referring to another type of insurance they offer?

[Mineshaft]

Their "claiming insurance" is in essence short-term mortality insurance.

http://www.yearsleybloodstockgroup.com/#12

Are you referring to another type of insurance they offer?




No thats the insurance im talking about. I use it sometimes when i claim.

[Saratoga_Mike]

No thats the insurance im talking about. I use it sometimes when i claim.

It's short-term mortality insurance. If Farallon had been covered by it, the owners would not have been entitled to a payout.

[Stillriledup]

And they give you cash, which is just as good as money.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-EZf56AfYc :jump:

[Mineshaft]

It's short-term mortality insurance. If Farallon had been covered by it, the owners would not have been entitled to a payout.





I understand that. But isnt there some insurance you could buy that says if you claimed a horse and it never ran again due to injury you would be covered?

[Saratoga_Mike]

I understand that. But isnt there some insurance you could buy that says if you claimed a horse and it never ran again due to injury you would be covered?

I'm 99.99% sure no such thing exist, but if you find such a product, please let me know!!! If it does exist, my bet is it would be outrageously expensive, though.

[johnhannibalsmith]

They have policies for loss of usage (usually in a few degrees) - essentially insuring horses from devaluation or loss of value due to certain events that would cause it to be unable to "be used" in the capacity in which it has earned that value. I've never seen a provision like a loss of usage attached to claiming policies because it just can't be worth it and would probably be fairly skeptical of the coverage or requirements for a claim if it was affordable. But I'm not a huge fan of claiming insurance. It's like car insurance and health insurance, it's made us a bunch of unhealthy dangers behind the wheel.

[tbwinner]

I'm still shocked that there was a FOUR-WAY shake for this horse...this must be California racing!?

[Fager Fan]

I understand that. But isnt there some insurance you could buy that says if you claimed a horse and it never ran again due to injury you would be covered?

No, there's not. Claiming insurance is only mortality insurance, which is the only insurance offered on racehorses.

When insurance gets into the breeding end, then there are some other coverages. Fertility insurance, or loss of use as a stallion, etc.

[Stillriledup]

I'm still shocked that there was a FOUR-WAY shake for this horse...this must be California racing!?

The replay is very impressive, she could (have been) be any kind of horse. People took a shot, they're getting ready for increased purses in a few weeks.

[cj]

The replay is very impressive, she could (have been) be any kind of horse. People took a shot, they're getting ready for increased purses in a few weeks.

She was very impressive if you ignored the timer.

[Not4Love]

I know it's all a gamble. I think these people all got what they deserved after claiming a horse from the polytrack. This stuff is ruining the game and of course the animal. Santa Anita open on the 26th with a new surface. Does this not mean ANYTHING! Yes, I have claimed horse in the past and never off of the polytrack. Tuff Luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Gapfire]

She was very impressive if you ignored the timer.

I agree. The soft half made for an easy win. I can recall a study that concluded horses coming off of under wrap wins, did not win anymore than their fair share of their next starts.

[Stillriledup]

She was very impressive if you ignored the timer.

Why would you look at the timer? I mean, time only matters when you're in jail, no?

[cj]

Why would you look at the timer? I mean, time only matters when you're in jail, no?

NO. Lots of horses look great when winning if you don't consider speed.

[toetoe]

Well, I would say the "could have won by many more lengths" is a huge fallacy. Horses don't run faster when pressured, they run faster when relaxed.


Amen, brother.

Will we ever be able to convince folks of this ?

I daresay it's the hugest fallacy to be bandied since Louie Anderson's most recent wingding. :blush: .

[Stillriledup]

Amen, brother.

Will we ever be able to convince folks of this ?

I daresay it's the hugest fallacy to be bandied since Louie Anderson's most recent wingding. :blush: .


Can someone please name a horse: Hugest Fallacy?

Thanks. :eek: