View Full Version : award second place a higher beyer?
bisket
12-06-2010, 09:57 PM
all of us that pick races apart to try and decide which horse ran the best race, and arrive at a reliable speed figures should seriously consider this in the breeders cup classic. beyer adjusts his figures 7 points for filly and mare races. in my book zen got 118 for the classic, and i can't think of a good reason why she shouldn't have this figure. she's a mare and the race was adjusted to come up with the 111 for the older horses. why shouldn't her fig be adjusted to reflect her performance?
horses4courses
12-06-2010, 09:59 PM
all of us that pick races apart to try and decide which horse ran the best race, and arrive at a reliable speed figures should seriously consider this in the breeders cup classic. beyer adjusts his figures 7 points for filly and mare races. in my book zen got 118 for the classic, and i can't think of a good reason why she shouldn't have this figure. she's a mare and the race was adjusted to come up with the 111 for the older horses. why shouldn't her fig be adjusted to reflect her performance?
Maybe because Beyer has always downplayed the mare's performances?
He doesn't adjust figures 7 points. That is the average difference between males and females. I love when people start threads about Beyers and have no idea what they are talking about. Of course, then along comes someone else that is just as clueless to agree with them.
http://dumbanddumbertuxedo.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/AustinDumbJC.jpg
PhantomOnTour
12-06-2010, 10:11 PM
Beyers are given strictly based on final time and margin of defeat. Zenyatta's allowance for being a mare against boys was carrying less weight. Theoretically, the lesser weight would even out any perceived disadvantage because she's a mare...and it worked perfectly! She was beaten by a short head while carrying less weight. Her figure stands.
horses4courses
12-06-2010, 10:56 PM
He doesn't adjust figures 7 points. That is the average difference between males and females. I love when people start threads about Beyers and have no idea what they are talking about. Of course, then along comes someone else that is just as clueless to agree with them.
http://dumbanddumbertuxedo.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/AustinDumbJC.jpg
Always such a treat to come on here and get abuse.
We definitely don't speak the same language when it comes to gambling, cj, but I'll wager my ROI is just fine compared to yours.
PaceAdvantage
12-06-2010, 10:59 PM
Always such a treat to come on here and get abuse.
We definitely don't speak the same language when it comes to gambling, cj, but I'll wager my ROI is just fine compared to yours.Do not people deserve to be called out when they are in serious error?
How is being called out equated to "abuse?"
This was a wickedly stupid thread. Yes, Zenyatta deserves a 118 because she is female...I mean, WTF faraway planet did THAT thought come from?
horses4courses
12-06-2010, 11:08 PM
I don't crunch speed figures. I should not have commented.
I do get tired, though, of how subjective they can be, and how hung up some players are about them. I have long felt that Beyer is overrated.
That being said, it often works to my advantage as a player.
I'll try to stay out of areas where others have the expertise.
The Bit
12-07-2010, 12:59 PM
Bisket has in the neighborhood of 3000 post but has never actually taken a good look at how the most widely used speed figures are constructed?
Beyer says that in general, he found that male and female race horses of the same class have a 7 point difference in par. Which is to say, 10k male claimers might have a par of 70 and their female counterparts would have a par of 63. Or grade 3 males on dirt may have a par of 94 while grade 3 females would have a par of 87.
It has nothing to do with adjusting times because a female was doing the running.
bisket
12-07-2010, 05:41 PM
He doesn't adjust figures 7 points. That is the average difference between males and females. I love when people start threads about Beyers and have no idea what they are talking about. Of course, then along comes someone else that is just as clueless to agree with them.
http://dumbanddumbertuxedo.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/AustinDumbJC.jpg
so lets say for the sake of argument zenyatta faced the winner of the ladies classic who also happened to recieve a 111 beyer. is the 111 beyer given in the breeders cup classic equal to the 111 beyer given in the ladies classic?
i'm guessing from your comment you know what your talking about..... so i'm assuming your speed figures make adjustments for a figure earned by a mare in a race for horses. :p
i guess you'll have to change back to your old avatar :liar:
bisket
12-07-2010, 05:50 PM
Do not people deserve to be called out when they are in serious error?
How is being called out equated to "abuse?"
This was a wickedly stupid thread. Yes, Zenyatta deserves a 118 because she is female...I mean, WTF faraway planet did THAT thought come from?
its not an error at all.... and you are only making fools of yourselves by reacting the way you do. beyer adjusts his VARIANT by taking into consideration that filly and mare races are 7 points slower. i don't recall another mare racing saturday.
anyone looking at this thread should take into consideration that all the idiots posting these pictures and defending them insisted for two years that zenyatta was slow and not capable of winning the classic on dirt.
bisket
12-07-2010, 05:58 PM
i guess having a serious discussion about this subject with anyone other than cj is out the window. the bully of the board has marked his territory once again. the glaring problem with this board is one poster that sells figures takes it personally whenever a situation is brought to light that makes the figs inaccurate. he posts ridiculous things on the thread, and everyone just runs away from the discussion. membership down pa?
i guess having a serious discussion about this subject with anyone other than cj is out the window. the bully of the board has marked his territory once again. the glaring problem with this board is one poster that sells figures takes it personally whenever a situation is brought to light that makes the figs inaccurate. he posts ridiculous things on the thread, and everyone just runs away from the discussion. membership down pa?
Your post cannot be a discussion because it is so factually incorrect there is nothing to talk about. Post something that makes sense and a discussion can ensue.
illinoisbred
12-07-2010, 06:07 PM
Okay,I'll bite here. If I'm following your logic correctly it's safe to assume you also feel a state-bred's figure can be bumped up say 5 points when it runs in an open allowance race? Does the same logic apply when a 3 yr old runs against older in an allowance race say in febuary at Gulfstream-bump him up 5-6 points?
the glaring problem with this board is one poster that sells figures takes it personally whenever a situation is brought to light that makes the figs inaccurate.
I would like to address this one point since it comes up from time to time. There have been plenty of times where I have been the first one to post I didn't agree with figures, be they Beyer or Thorograph or the old Woodside Associates or BRIS or whatever. I've also said many times figures can be tough to make and are far from perfect.
When I usually get into debates is when people harp on Beyers as being wrong, or dumb, or inaccurate, and they don't even understand them. Let me be clear. Beyer is a COMPETITOR of mine. If people are happy with his numbers, why would they buy mine? That doesn't stop me from calling BS though when it is posted. I almost NEVER post anything about my figures here unless asked, and even then I am usually reluctant to do so. Any regular knows this is true.
Bisket likes to follow me around and take shots at me. It used to be about my figures, but other posters put him in his place. Then, he moved to "He never posts selections". However, since the BC, he disappeared. Wonder why? He won't be posting that one anytime soon I'm sure.
Relwob Owner
12-07-2010, 08:09 PM
its not an error at all.... and you are only making fools of yourselves by reacting the way you do. beyer adjusts his VARIANT by taking into consideration that filly and mare races are 7 points slower. i don't recall another mare racing saturday.
anyone looking at this thread should take into consideration that all the idiots posting these pictures and defending them insisted for two years that zenyatta was slow and not capable of winning the classic on dirt.
I used to do my own Beyer figs years ago so my memory may be failing here but it is the par times of Filly and Mare races which are lower and I have never heard of adding points to a filly individually who is running in an open race like you initially suggested and appear to be trying to talk your way out of....I think you might want to be careful about who you are calling "fools" after being the author of this thread.....
By the way, you say that idiots insisted for 2 years that Zenyatta couldnt win the Classic on dirt? Well, she didnt and they were right...not so idiotic from where I sit.
Well, she didnt and they were right...not so idiotic from where I sit.
Amazing how many people seemed to have missed this.
ronsmac
12-07-2010, 09:54 PM
As a player who's computed speed figs since i was 13. I can say with confidence they are the most overrated factor in handicapping.
As a player who's computed speed figs since i was 13. I can say with confidence they are the most overrated factor in handicapping.
Overbet, sure, for those that concentrate on the best recent figure. I would agree with that and is a big reason why I make multiple figures. I will say I wouldn't want to bet without them.
JeremyJet
12-08-2010, 12:43 AM
all of us that pick races apart to try and decide which horse ran the best race, and arrive at a reliable speed figures should seriously consider this in the breeders cup classic. beyer adjusts his figures 7 points for filly and mare races. in my book zen got 118 for the classic, and i can't think of a good reason why she shouldn't have this figure. she's a mare and the race was adjusted to come up with the 111 for the older horses. why shouldn't her fig be adjusted to reflect her performance?
The only time Beyer considers the situation you write about is when pars are used to come up with a variant. The same thing is done with all age groups ... male and female.
Regards,
JeremyJet
JeremyJet
12-08-2010, 12:52 AM
anyone looking at this thread should take into consideration that all the idiots posting these pictures and defending them insisted for two years that zenyatta was slow and not capable of winning the classic on dirt.
What did they run in the Classic? A 112 Beyer? The par is around 116. So, yeah, the idiots were correct.
Regards,
JeremyJet
plainolebill
12-08-2010, 03:52 AM
Bisket you are confusing the way Beyer makes his figs with the figs themselves. When he calculates a variant for a particular day, let's say there are a 3yo filly nwx1 @ 6f and the following race is a 3yo colt nwx1 race at the same distance. Let's also say that the winners of those races both ran the same time, that for the sake of this example, we'll say was par for the colt race. The filly race would be recorded as +7 and the colts as 0 or par. Those would be included in the mix with the rest of the card to make the track variant for the day.
The filly would get the same beyer fig as the colt.
PaceAdvantage
12-08-2010, 04:27 AM
membership down pa?On the contrary, my website stats have once again improved year over year...
From the period of March-May:
Hits (2009): 52,237,738
Hits (2010): 61,682,619 an increase of 18%
Over 20M hits a month...put that in your pipe and smoke it bisket...
And thanks for asking buddy!
Fastracehorse
12-08-2010, 01:11 PM
Do not people deserve to be called out when they are in serious error?
How is being called out equated to "abuse?"
This was a wickedly stupid thread. Yes, Zenyatta deserves a 118 because she is female...I mean, WTF faraway planet did THAT thought come from?
come on
the biskuit is good fodder
fffastt
Fastracehorse
12-08-2010, 01:19 PM
As a player who's computed speed figs since i was 13. I can say with confidence they are the most overrated factor in handicapping.
the water is very murky without them
what is below the surface when you are wading?
if you say they cannot win every race on their lonesome, then you are right
but, honestly, and like you picked up horses very early in life ( 11 ), speed figs are the most powerful handicapping factor out there
fffastt
Fastracehorse
12-08-2010, 01:22 PM
Amazing how many people seemed to have missed this.
it is almost a 'faux pas' to knock her on not winning
that was a f*n amazing race by her, and how didn't she get Blame?
fffastt
Steve 'StatMan'
12-08-2010, 01:26 PM
so lets say for the sake of argument zenyatta faced the winner of the ladies classic who also happened to recieve a 111 beyer. is the 111 beyer given in the breeders cup classic equal to the 111 beyer given in the ladies classic?
In this case, assuming it is hypotheticial (I have no idea of the winning fig from the Ladies Classic this year), the 111's are supposed to be equal as a final time figure.
The 7pts between males and females (maybe a different number) can used as a guide to making ones ones pars for making ones own speed figures, before you know how fast (by your new and future, finer tuned figs) they are. Once you know a horse by your own figs runs at or about a 111 when it runs its best race, you can compare the time it runs next and the corresponding raw time figure, and then adjust for the time of a 111 fig, to get one of your measurements (of man) to compute your own track variant.
Once you know how fast horses are by your own scale, you should need fewer rule-of-thumb adjustments, and can focus on how fast the horses really ran, regardless of their sex or where their driverr licences are created. Horses don't look at their driver's license and say "I've got to slow down, I'm from Illinois, I've got to run 3 lenghts slower than open company rival (who might be from Delaware or Kentucky.) Same thing genderwise. They run what they run. Many females run slower, for odd reasons that have been discussed on the board, but it is best to know just how fast they really run.
Steve 'StatMan'
12-08-2010, 01:38 PM
Rememeber Beyer's first book was about creating speed figures and what he went through, and what he found at the time. That book involved part times and par charts, and he found differences in various classes, and used adjustments to account for them.
In Beyer's second book, he discussed changing to a projectiong method, based on how fast he knew the horses had run before.
The book has been out for 30 years at least, I'm certain Beyer and his people, as well as many other speed figure makers, have advanced far beyond the concepts of the original book. Which I get is what the guys called foul about - Beyer don't do that anymore, and in your description, I dodn't think ever did that part that way. But maybe nobody took the time to explain more details about figs and figure making. I don't make them myself, I'm close friends with someone who does, and wouldn't make that adjustment either.
maddog42
01-27-2011, 06:03 PM
She just didn't do it this year. I just went back and watched the 2009 Classic and Trevor just about blew a fuse when she put on that stretch run. What did she miss winning by this year ,about 4 inches ? Look at that trip she had, And Smith crying afterward. I had a lot of respect for Smith after that. I have a lot of respect for jockeys period.
Am I the only handicapper that gets sick when I hear a bunch of losing handicappers blaming Jockeys for them losing . I hope not. There are a lot of bad jockeys out there but 99% of the time they are doing there best to win.
Anyone who has actually ridden a horse fast has got to have respect for them.
I haven't rode a horse in 20 years, but it is not easy.
Back to the point: She was 4 inches and a bad trip from winning back to back
Breeders Cup Classics. Even Secretariat lost to Onion.
classhandicapper
01-30-2011, 01:03 AM
The average gap between males and females is typically larger than 7 points on dirt, but it does vary by class, distance, and stage of development
It is narrower on turf and has been narrower on synthetic in a more limited sample.
Understanding the average gap by class, distance, and surface gives you a pretty good leg up in assessing the chances of a filly/mare against males because you can tell how large of a class jump it is. Sometimes it's big and sometimes it's not even when the class labels are similar.
Over a several year period for which I have data (haven't finished with 2010 yet), the average Grade 1 race for 3+ males at a route is 111 and for mares it's 102. That's a pretty large gap. That's one reason I said it would be really tough for Zenyatta to make that class move compared to the many turf, sprint, and younger filly/mares that have done it successfully throughout history (where the gap is much narrower, sometimes 5 and as low as 2).
A figure of 111 for a mare is dynamite regardless, but IMHO it is sensational when earned against elite Grade 1 male competition as opposed to against other females where the competitiveness of the race would typically not be nearly as extreme.
Just to add to the confusion, my opinion is that you should adjust speed ratings for age and weight, because they are actually variable. Gender doesn't change so there is no need to adjust.
Pars should of course be adjusted for gender but that only influences the DTV (in my approach at least - I know it's different for others).
classhandicapper
01-30-2011, 01:34 PM
Just to add to the confusion, my opinion is that you should adjust speed ratings for age and weight, because they are actually variable. Gender doesn't change so there is no need to adjust.
Pars should of course be adjusted for gender but that only influences the DTV (in my approach at least - I know it's different for others).
The problem with age and weight calculations is that they are not the same for every horse.
Not that I know the answer, but bigger horses are probably impacted less than smaller ones. Dead weight in the saddle may be different than jockey weight being carried in a different location. Even among those that have tried to determine the impact in a more "average way", there seems to be some disagreements.
On the age front there are clearly early developers and late developers.
If you assume that Uncle Mo is going to improve a real lot on his 2YO figures you may be making a huge mistake. I can give you a long list of early bloomers that did not move forward much after their 2YO or spring 3YO races despite remaining sound. I can also show you horses that developed physically late. He might, but he might not. He might move up a little, but not as much as the average.
I don't have a good solution, but I think simply being aware of large weight shifts and/or potential development and what the averages are is better than actually making exact adjustments.
The problem with age and weight calculations is that they are not the same for every horse.
Not that I know the answer, but bigger horses are probably impacted less than smaller ones. Dead weight in the saddle may be different than jockey weight being carried in a different location. Even among those that have tried to determine the impact in a more "average way", there seems to be some disagreements.
On the age front there are clearly early developers and late developers.
If you assume that Uncle Mo is going to improve a real lot on his 2YO figures you may be making a huge mistake. I can give you a long list of early bloomers that did not move forward much after their 2YO or spring 3YO races despite remaining sound. I can also show you horses that developed physically late. He might, but he might not. He might move up a little, but not as much as the average.
I don't have a good solution, but I think simply being aware of large weight shifts and/or potential development and what the averages are is better than actually making exact adjustments.
I am not claiming they are exact adjustments. As you say, the impact is different for each horse. There isn't enough data available to model this for each horse individually of course, but the average is still a better estimate than simply ignoring it.
It's actually quite interesting. With the precocious 2 year olds you see their ratings move back a few points as they mature.
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