Zenyatta's curtain call at HOL today

[horses4courses]

She seems to know that today is not a race day for her.

Alert, and looking great, but doesn't have her game face on!

Good luck to her in retirement - she has given us thrills!

[cpitt84]

Still disappointed she's retiring!! I will miss her :(

[Stillriledup]

She's got 60 minutes, she's has people singing about her at racetracks, she has thousands of people showing up to see her NOT race and yet she still has one thing missing, she has people chanting her name. She's good enough for all this adulation and fame, yet she's not good enough to be HOY.

[Grits]

she's has people singing about her at racetracks

The tribute is a nice one, just as it will be at Keeneland tomorrow, as well. Zenyatta looked fantastic, ears pricked, standing straight up and posing for her fans. Her groom-Mario Espinoza, Mike Smith, and Jerry and Ann Moss--all did a fine job. Gracious as can be.

The song, on the other hand, really, really SUCKS, its sucked from the moment it was recorded. It gets no better each time the singer performs it. It could've been dropped from the tribute TOTALLY.:faint:

SRU, if nothing else, you're consistent.

[Relwob Owner]

She's got 60 minutes, she's has people singing about her at racetracks, she has thousands of people showing up to see her NOT race and yet she still has one thing missing, she has people chanting her name. She's good enough for all this adulation and fame, yet she's not good enough to be HOY.


Adulation and fame doesnt equal getting HOY........just because a lot of people like and/or watch something doesnt mean it is the best.....

We get the point-you think she should win HOY....you have had the facts put in front of you many times and just ignore them basing your argument on weak points like the fact that she was the favorite in the Breeders Cup........... just move on man

[Relwob Owner]

The tribute is a nice one, just as it will be at Keeneland tomorrow, as well. Zenyatta looked fantastic, ears pricked, standing straight up and posing for her fans. Her groom-Mario Espinoza, Mike Smith, and Jerry and Ann Moss--all did a fine job. Gracious as can be.

The song, on the other hand, really, really SUCKS, its sucked from the moment it was recorded. It gets no better each time the singer performs it. It could've been dropped from the tribute TOTALLY.:faint:

SRU, if nothing else, you're consistent.



Great analysis Grits, especially your take on the song(sucks-right on target) and the consistency of SRU:).....

[andymays]

The tribute is a nice one, just as it will be at Keeneland tomorrow, as well. Zenyatta looked fantastic, ears pricked, standing straight up and posing for her fans. Her groom-Mario Espinoza, Mike Smith, and Jerry and Ann Moss--all did a fine job. Gracious as can be.

The song, on the other hand, really, really SUCKS, its sucked from the moment it was recorded. It gets no better each time the singer performs it. It could've been dropped from the tribute TOTALLY.:faint:

SRU, if nothing else, you're consistent.
:lol:

The song doesn't do much for me either.

She did a lot of good for racing and helped promote it. They should have raced in New York and it was a big mistake not to.

I was thinking earlier that it might have been better if she would have lost one of her first 10 races. I say that because I believe they would have been more likely to race her outside of California more instead of trying to keep her perfect. Just a thought.

[Shelby]

I had company and missed it :(

[thaskalos]

After all the bitter debates about her talent and ability...one thing remains certain and indisputable:

Every ounce of talent and ability she had, she put on display on race day...and she never took a race "off".

Always bringing your "A" game is the "real" secret of success, not only in athletics - but in life as well...and Zenyatta showed us all how it's done.

And now she gallops into the sunset...having achieved something that few horses in the long history of this game ever attain.

A place in our hearts.

[Relwob Owner]

After all the bitter debates about her talent and ability...one thing remains certain and indisputable:

Every ounce of talent and ability she had, she put on display on race day...and she never took a race "off".

Always bringing your "A" game is the "real" secret of success, not only in athletics - but in life as well...and Zenyatta showed us all how it's done.

And now she gallops into the sunset...having achieved something that few horses in the long history of this game ever attain.

A place in our hearts.



I am one of the biggest Zenyatta fans but I think your post hits the nail on the head....the only thing I slightly disagree with is her bringing her "A" game....I actually thought in a few of her wins she didnt have her "A" game but still won and that says a lot.

[FenceBored]

She's got 60 minutes, she's has people singing about her at racetracks, she has thousands of people showing up to see her NOT race and yet she still has one thing missing, she has people chanting her name. She's good enough for all this adulation and fame, yet she's not good enough to be HOY.

Glad to see you're accepting it better now. :)

[Stillriledup]

Adulation and fame doesnt equal getting HOY........just because a lot of people like and/or watch something doesnt mean it is the best.....

We get the point-you think she should win HOY....you have had the facts put in front of you many times and just ignore them basing your argument on weak points like the fact that she was the favorite in the Breeders Cup........... just move on man

Yes, that's true in and of itself. BUT, you don't get adulation and fame (at this level) without being one of the all time greats. She gets adulation for a reason.

[Stillriledup]

Really bad song, but a song nonetheless.

[BluegrassProf]

Yes, that's true in and of itself. BUT, you don't get adulation and fame (at this level) without being one of the all time greats. She gets adulation for a reason.Darn right! Heck, look no further than the Bieb!

http://www.theteenforum.com/pics/Justin-Bieber.jpg <--(dreamboat)

Move over, Ol Blueyes! Watch your finely-scuplted back, Freddie Mercury! Don't quitcha day job, Etta! Man in Black? Pfft, more like Man in Crappy Singin!

Proof of greatness is obviously right there in the delicious BieberPuddin' - ain't seen no lifesize Johnny Cash cutouts lately, have ya??

FAME FAME GREATNESS EXPLOSION!

:ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

After all the bitter debates about her talent and ability...one thing remains certain and indisputable:

Every ounce of talent and ability she had, she put on display on race day...and she never took a race "off".

Always bringing your "A" game is the "real" secret of success, not only in athletics - but in life as well...and Zenyatta showed us all how it's done.

And now she gallops into the sunset...having achieved something that few horses in the long history of this game ever attain.

A place in our hearts.

give me a break. How long have you been writing for Disney.........?

[Relwob Owner]

Darn right! Heck, look no further than the Bieb!

http://www.theteenforum.com/pics/Justin-Bieber.jpg <--(dreamboat)

Move over, Ol Blueyes! Watch your finely-scuplted back, Freddie Mercury! Don't quitcha day job, Etta! Man in Black? Pfft, more like Man in Crappy Singin!

Proof of greatness is obviously right there in the delicious BieberPuddin' - ain't seen no lifesize Johnny Cash cutouts lately, have ya??

FAME FAME GREATNESS EXPLOSION!

:ThmbUp:




I was going to make the Jersey Shore analogy regarding the fact that they get a lot of fame and adulation but you beat me to it, quite well, I might add......

[Stillriledup]

Bad analogy. ;)

[Relwob Owner]

Bad analogy. ;)


Which one...Bieber or Jersey Shore? Either one shoots a huge hole in your theory. You are saying that Z must be HOY since so many people love and adore her.....both those analogies prove that fame and adulation shouldnt be used as a basis for being the best....how are those bad analogies? They seem spot on to me.....

[thaskalos]

give me a break. How long have you been writing for Disney.........?
I write what I feel my friend...

Is that ok...or should I consult YOU first?

[JustRalph]

I write what I feel my friend...

Is that ok...or should I consult YOU first?

your sentiment (http://www.google.com/search?aq=f&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=define+cliched) write what you want....... try not to get syrup on the monitor.........

[Spalding No!]

...and she never took a race "off".

"The expected clash between Eclipse Award finalist NASHOBA'S KEY (Silver Hawk) and the undefeated Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) in Sunday's $300,000 Santa Margarita Invitational H.(G1) did not materialize when the latter was withdrawn by trainer John Shirreffs..."

"Last year's champion older female Zenyatta has been scratched from the $350,000 Louisville Distaff (gr. II) May 1, it was confirmed by the Churchill Downs racing office."

[joanied]

I write what I feel my friend...

Is that ok...or should I consult YOU first?

Your post brought a tear to my eyes...we should be able to write what we feel, here or anyplace else, without anyone giving back negative remarks...and those that think your post, or any other writtings about how special this mare has been, is like writting for Disney...they are missing one of life's gifts... being able to feel, and to love.

I watched the farewell and was moved by it...except that Zenyatta song...I agree, it sucks...everything else was wonderful...I thought Ann Moss was going to loose it, and when Mike hugged Zen on the track...that was it for me!!

If my life holds any regrets, one will always be that I never saw Zenyatta in person...but I'm not affraid to say she has taken a piece of my heart with her.

[Stillriledup]

Which one...Bieber or Jersey Shore? Either one shoots a huge hole in your theory. You are saying that Z must be HOY since so many people love and adore her.....both those analogies prove that fame and adulation shouldnt be used as a basis for being the best....how are those bad analogies? They seem spot on to me.....

That's not what i'm saying. What i am saying is that people love and adore Z because she's great. The Bieber and Jsy Shore analogies are not good because in 5 years, Bieber and Jsy Shore will be forgotten and 'less loved'. Five years from now, Z's fans will love her just as much. 20 years from now, her fans will love her just as much. 20 years from now, the people who 'loved and adored' Bieber and other reality shows will be onto something else. Their love and adoration is fake, the love and adoration for Z is real and the reason its real is because she's great.

Z compares more to the Beatles than to Bieber.

[andtheyreoff]

That's not what i'm saying. What i am saying is that people love and adore Z because she's great. The Bieber and Jsy Shore analogies are not good because in 5 years, Bieber and Jsy Shore will be forgotten and 'less loved'. Five years from now, Z's fans will love her just as much. 20 years from now, her fans will love her just as much. 20 years from now, the people who 'loved and adored' Bieber and other reality shows will be onto something else. Their love and adoration is fake, the love and adoration for Z is real and the reason its real is because she's great.

Z compares more to the Beatles than to Bieber.

Your posts get more ridiculous by the minute.

[BluegrassProf]

That's not what i'm saying. What i am saying is that people love and adore Z because she's great.Hmms. It actually looks like you're saying that Zenyatta's great because people adore her, and people adore her because she's great.

Snoop Dogg calls that "cizurcular rizeasonizzling."

Just FYIzzle.

[Relwob Owner]

That's not what i'm saying. What i am saying is that people love and adore Z because she's great. The Bieber and Jsy Shore analogies are not good because in 5 years, Bieber and Jsy Shore will be forgotten and 'less loved'. Five years from now, Z's fans will love her just as much. 20 years from now, her fans will love her just as much. 20 years from now, the people who 'loved and adored' Bieber and other reality shows will be onto something else. Their love and adoration is fake, the love and adoration for Z is real and the reason its real is because she's great.

Z compares more to the Beatles than to Bieber.



Read your own posts....you have said she deserves HOY because she is so loved and adored.........just like you said the fact that she was favored in the BC supports the fact that she should be HOY.....your logic and reasoning is incredibly questionable......her fans have nothing to do with evaluating her place in history and you attempt to make it that way. Great mare, beaten in the biggest, most important race of her life by a horse who ran in tougher races all year long-end of story.

[Stillriledup]

Read your own posts....you have said she deserves HOY because she is so loved and adored.........just like you said the fact that she was favored in the BC supports the fact that she should be HOY.....your logic and reasoning is incredibly questionable......her fans have nothing to do with evaluating her place in history and you attempt to make it that way. Great mare, beaten in the biggest, most important race of her life by a horse who ran in tougher races all year long-end of story.

The truth shall set you free my good man, the truth shall set you free.

[Relwob Owner]

The truth shall set you free my good man, the truth shall set you free.


It already has and it is sitting right there in the PP's....you just choose to ignore it for some strange reason. Just so bizarre that you are so committed to the idea that a horse that a horse who didnt win a restricted race all year should be voted HOY over a horse that beat her when they met.

Let me ask you this-if Zenyatta wins that race by a head and Blame gets HOY, do you think that would have been fair?

[Stillriledup]

It already has and it is sitting right there in the PP's....you just choose to ignore it for some strange reason. Just so bizarre that you are so committed to the idea that a horse that a horse who didnt win a restricted race all year should be voted HOY over a horse that beat her when they met.

Let me ask you this-if Zenyatta wins that race by a head and Blame gets HOY, do you think that would have been fair?

Its not about fair. My position is that going INTO the race, Blame needed to do something spectacular to wrestle the title away from her. My position is that he didn't do enough.

[horses4courses]

Its not about fair. My position is that going INTO the race, Blame needed to do something spectacular to wrestle the title away from her. My position is that he didn't do enough.

Be prepared to be disappointed next month, SRU.
Status quo, and the East Coast vote, will get Blame elected HOY.

Zenyatta has never been held in high esteem by the numbers gurus, namely, the disciples of Andy Beyer. His influence in these matters is palpable.
Historically, she just doesn't cut it with the experts.
So many horses ran faster than the big mare during their careers.

Strength of heart counts for nothing when calculating numbers.
Ironically, if Zenyatta gets half a head up on Blame on Nov 6th, and wins, many of those experts would still say that she is not worthy. Half a head.

She lost the Classic - and she will lose 2008, 2009, and 2010 HOY.

It's not all bad, though, SRU, for those who believe she deserves better.
Zenyatta will, very likely, win a Hall of Fame award some day.
Blame will not.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... My position is that he didn't do enough.

What was he supposed to do? Moonwalk across the finish line backwards in front of the super mare renowned for her ability to win at 1-9 by a nipple?

[PaceAdvantage]

Be prepared to be disappointed next month, SRU.
Status quo, and the East Coast vote, will get Blame elected HOY.As it should be. There are voters who read this board, so now's your chance to win them over... :lol:

Ironically, if Zenyatta gets half a head up on Blame on Nov 6th, and wins, many of those experts would still say that she is not worthy. Half a head.Ironically? Try stupidly. If she wins, who else could claim HOTY? I would certainly vote for her if she had won. But she didn't win, and thus does not deserve my vote. She couldn't beat the horse that was running in and winning in non-restricted Grade 1 open events. When all she has to fall back on are wins against restricted (and often times horrid) competition, there is no choice for those who wish to remain true to their vote.

[horses4courses]

As it should be. There are voters who read this board, so now's your chance to win them over... :lol:

Ironically? Try stupidly. If she wins, who else could claim HOTY? I would certainly vote for her if she had won. But she didn't win, and thus does not deserve my vote. She couldn't beat the horse that was running in and winning in non-restricted Grade 1 open events. When all she has to fall back on are wins against restricted (and often times horrid) competition, there is no choice for those who wish to remain true to their vote.

Blame looked a real champ in the JCGC, alright.
If I had a vote, Haynesfield would be very tempting.

As always, thanks for enlightening us plebians, PA.

[Stillriledup]

What was he supposed to do? Moonwalk across the finish line backwards in front of the super mare renowned for her ability to win at 1-9 by a nipple?

He didnt do enough. She ran amazing. If he won the race by a nose and she was up the track, than he would have done enough. Or, if he won by 5 lengths and she ran a bang up 2nd, he would have done enough. But, as it stood, she was the better horse visually in the race. He needed to tear the HOY away from her and he didnt do it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Blame looked a real champ in the JCGC, alright.
If I had a vote, Haynesfield would be very tempting.

As always, thanks for enlightening us plebians, PA.So only undefeated horses or nearly-undefeated horses should be HOTY, no matter the competition faced to attain that record? You just stated as much with your reply. Because Blame lost to Haynesfield (never mind he came back to crush him in the BC Classic AND crushed him in the Whitney as well)...Haynesfield warrants support from you.... :lol:

Based on your logic, you would no doubt make a terrible HOTY voter...hopefully, you have no such official vote.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...He needed to tear the HOY away from her and he didnt do it.

I went into the race with an open mind, allowing for the fact that this was one of only a few scenarios that could unfold and lead to her not winning a year-end championship. You had already crowned her and they may as well not have even run the race because I suspect...

I suspect... that in all reality when you say that he needed to tear the HOY away from her - what you are saying is that he needed to run 21:2, 43:3, 1:07.2, 1:19.1, 1:29.3, 1:53.2 final on the lead throughout and widening with Zenyatta forty-four lengths back in second, fifty eight clear of third. Come on.

[cj's dad]

I had company and missed it :(

You didn't miss much Shelby - enough already !!

I think she is great as I witnessed at Oaklawn Park back in April but enough already please !!

[PaceAdvantage]

Was that Nikki/Mikki screaming "YOU WERE ROBBED" and "HORSE OF THE YEAR!!!!?????" :lol:

[Stillriledup]

I went into the race with an open mind, allowing for the fact that this was one of only a few scenarios that could unfold and lead to her not winning a year-end championship. You had already crowned her and they may as well not have even run the race because I suspect...

I suspect... that in all reality when you say that he needed to tear the HOY away from her - what you are saying is that he needed to run 21:2, 43:3, 1:07.2, 1:19.1, 1:29.3, 1:53.2 final on the lead throughout and widening with Zenyatta forty-four lengths back in second, fifty eight clear of third. Come on.

Not true. He just had to beat her somewhat handily. Even by a length and a half, or, something like that.. He had to do something to make me say "He's just better than she is". I walked away from the race thinking, "Z was much the best and got bad luck, she would crush him if they raced a month later on the same track at the same distance.

[Stillriledup]

Be prepared to be disappointed next month, SRU.
Status quo, and the East Coast vote, will get Blame elected HOY.

Zenyatta has never been held in high esteem by the numbers gurus, namely, the disciples of Andy Beyer. His influence in these matters is palpable.
Historically, she just doesn't cut it with the experts.
So many horses ran faster than the big mare during their careers.

Strength of heart counts for nothing when calculating numbers.
Ironically, if Zenyatta gets half a head up on Blame on Nov 6th, and wins, many of those experts would still say that she is not worthy. Half a head.

She lost the Classic - and she will lose 2008, 2009, and 2010 HOY.

It's not all bad, though, SRU, for those who believe she deserves better.
Zenyatta will, very likely, win a Hall of Fame award some day.
Blame will not.


Very good post, you're probably right, its not likely she will win HOY with the eastern contingent biased against her.

[CincyHorseplayer]

After all the bitter debates about her talent and ability...one thing remains certain and indisputable:

Every ounce of talent and ability she had, she put on display on race day...and she never took a race "off".

Always bringing your "A" game is the "real" secret of success, not only in athletics - but in life as well...and Zenyatta showed us all how it's done.

And now she gallops into the sunset...having achieved something that few horses in the long history of this game ever attain.

A place in our hearts.

Don't listen to the BS Thask.This post is it.There is such a mountain of $hit around her that publicly you can barely enjoy it.But a joy she is.And all the BC made me think,even with winning ticket in hand and tears coming down,was what might have been if they had the stones to race her in more challenging situations.She was good enough that day,and IMO would have been good enough in a lot of races.I'll always think about how good she might have been and if she doesn't get HOY I'll just love her period!!

[Fager Fan]

As it should be. There are voters who read this board, so now's your chance to win them over... :lol:

Ironically? Try stupidly. If she wins, who else could claim HOTY? I would certainly vote for her if she had won. But she didn't win, and thus does not deserve my vote. She couldn't beat the horse that was running in and winning in non-restricted Grade 1 open events. When all she has to fall back on are wins against restricted (and often times horrid) competition, there is no choice for those who wish to remain true to their vote.

Weak. She ran the better race considering the difficulty she had early and how much ground she had to make up. If Blame had beaten her decisively, you'd have a good argument. Horses who finish by a head or bob are for all intents and purposes put in at least an equally good performance as the horse that wins. In her case, she put in a better performance.

She had the better year and will win HOY. I have faith the voters will get it right instead of adding Blame to the short list of worst HOY horses ever named.

[Fager Fan]

Not true. He just had to beat her somewhat handily. Even by a length and a half, or, something like that.. He had to do something to make me say "He's just better than she is". I walked away from the race thinking, "Z was much the best and got bad luck, she would crush him if they raced a month later on the same track at the same distance.

Exactly.

[Relwob Owner]

Be prepared to be disappointed next month, SRU.
Status quo, and the East Coast vote, will get Blame elected HOY.

Zenyatta has never been held in high esteem by the numbers gurus, namely, the disciples of Andy Beyer. His influence in these matters is palpable.
Historically, she just doesn't cut it with the experts.
So many horses ran faster than the big mare during their careers.

Strength of heart counts for nothing when calculating numbers.
Ironically, if Zenyatta gets half a head up on Blame on Nov 6th, and wins, many of those experts would still say that she is not worthy. Half a head.

She lost the Classic - and she will lose 2008, 2009, and 2010 HOY.

It's not all bad, though, SRU, for those who believe she deserves better.
Zenyatta will, very likely, win a Hall of Fame award some day.
Blame will not.



Wow....so now it is Beyer's fault? Someone who had no idea about Beyer numbers and was told about the two horses would ask:

Who ran in tougher races all year? Blame
Who ran in open races the majority of the year? Blame
Who ducked all tough races to save all of her punch for one race, yet lost? Zenyatta
Who won when they faced each other? Blame

No Beyer influence there, is there?.....


It is amazing how the pro Zenyatta folks use every excuse possible in order to avoid the real critertia, which is what happened on the track. Zenyatta didnt win a non restricted race all year. Blame won four(3 Grade 1's, 1 Grade 3) and got second in a Grade 1 and beat Zenyatta....case closed. I have never seen so many people ignore the fact that one horse beat another when they raced.

Instead of spending your energy blaming a non existent East Coast bias or Beyer, you should blame the connections. If they would have run her in tougher races all year, you could make a better case for Zenyatta.....since they ducked all year and put all their eggs in one basket, the blame is largely on them.

[Fager Fan]

Wow....so now it is Beyer's fault? Someone who had no idea about Beyer numbers and was told about the two horses would ask:

Who ran in tougher races all year? Blame
Who ran in open races the majority of the year? Blame
Who ducked all tough races to save all of her punch for one race, yet lost? Zenyatta
Who won when they faced each other? Blame

No Beyer influence there, is there?.....


It is amazing how the pro Zenyatta folks use every excuse possible in order to avoid the real critertia, which is what happened on the track. Zenyatta didnt win a non restricted race all year. Blame won four(3 Grade 1's, 1 Grade 3) and got second in a Grade 1 and beat Zenyatta....case closed. I have never seen so many people ignore the fact that one horse beat another when they raced.

Instead of spending your energy blaming a non existent East Coast bias or Beyer, you should blame the connections. If they would have run her in tougher races all year, you could make a better case for Zenyatta.....since they ducked all year and put all their eggs in one basket, the blame is largely on them.

Blame did the very same thing that Zenyatta did - he ran in the races for his division. Worse, he skipped a big race (Woodward) while perfectly healthy, and should be penalized for doing so and only racing 5 times when he could've and should've run at least 6. Even then, he showed that he loses to inferior horses if the pace doesn't go his way, something that never happened with Zenyatta in 20 races.

Those who wanted Zenyatta to run against males more, a female running in the Classic is enough for one campaign. If that's not enough for you, then you have to wonder what you wanted - for her to get permanently depleted as happened with Rachel? Or worse?

[Relwob Owner]

Blame did the very same thing that Zenyatta did - he ran in the races for his division. Worse, he skipped a big race (Woodward) while perfectly healthy, and should be penalized for doing so and only racing 5 times when he could've and should've run at least 6. Even then, he showed that he loses to inferior horses if the pace doesn't go his way, something that never happened with Zenyatta in 20 races.

Those who wanted Zenyatta to run against males more, a female running in the Classic is enough for one campaign. If that's not enough for you, then you have to wonder what you wanted - for her to get permanently depleted as happened with Rachel? Or worse?



Blame beat Zenyatta-end of story. I appreciate people like you and Stillriledup and your enthusiasm for the great mare. However, your arguments and points regarding horse of the year are honestly just senseless and total reaches. The award is for the best horse in 2010 and based on record, toughness of races and head to head, it is clearly Blame.

As far as skipping races, that is one of your many reaches....any analysis of who the horses ran against favors Blame.....she skipped every hard race, focused on one race and lost....doesnt matter by how much, she lost and you and others cant seem to get over it and keep reaching for excuses.

Your "female running in the classic is enough" argument makes no sense. It actually downgrades you prized horse and you are admitting that she wouldnt be able to handle running against males more than once...if that is the case, how can she be HORSE(not filly) of the year?????

One thing I do agree with from the pro-Zenyatta folks(may have been you who had the post) is in regards to the Hall of Fame. You are totally correct in that Z will probably get in and Blame probably wont....why? Because that award involes a career, not a year and Zenyatta clearly deserves that.

I think that after all of the back and forth, many can step back and meet somewhere in the middle on this and see that Z had the better whole career while Blame had the better year.

[FenceBored]

Blame did the very same thing that Zenyatta did - he ran in the races for his division. Worse, he skipped a big race (Woodward) while perfectly healthy, and should be penalized for doing so and only racing 5 times when he could've and should've run at least 6. Even then, he showed that he loses to inferior horses if the pace doesn't go his way, something that never happened with Zenyatta in 20 races.

Those who wanted Zenyatta to run against males more, a female running in the Classic is enough for one campaign. If that's not enough for you, then you have to wonder what you wanted - for her to get permanently depleted as happened with Rachel? Or worse?

:sleeping: Oh, please. Are we going to trot out that old chestnut again.

Honestly 28 for 136 (20.59%) in their 2010 races Zenyatta didn't win? 6 for 57 (10.53%) in Graded stakes Zenyatta didn't win? These are the numbers that prove how great Zenyatta had to be to beat these girls?

Blame won over foes who were a slightly better 54 for 156 ( 34.62%) in 2010 races Blame didn't win and 31 for 91 (34.07%) in graded stakes Blame didn't win.

Let's put that in tabular form

10.53%: Zenyatta foes in Graded races she didn't win
34.07%: Blame foes in Graded races he didn't win

20.59%: Zenyatta foes in their races she didn't win
34.62%: Blame foes in their races he didn't win

# of horses won over who earned > $1m just in 2010:
0 - Zenyatta
6 - Blame

Total 2010 earnings of horses won over:
$ 3,016,421 - Zenyatta
$15,450,650 - Blame

# Graded stakes wins by won over foes
6 - Zenyatta
31- Blame

# Graded stakes winners won over
6 - Zenyatta
14 - Blame

# Grade 1 winners won over
0 - Zenyatta
8 - Blame

2010 Beyers >= 100
3 - Zenyatta (1 over 110)
5 - Blame (2 over 110)

Who's your daddy?

Blame

[Stillriledup]

Wow....so now it is Beyer's fault? Someone who had no idea about Beyer numbers and was told about the two horses would ask:

Who ran in tougher races all year? Blame
Who ran in open races the majority of the year? Blame
Who ducked all tough races to save all of her punch for one race, yet lost? Zenyatta
Who won when they faced each other? Blame

No Beyer influence there, is there?.....


It is amazing how the pro Zenyatta folks use every excuse possible in order to avoid the real critertia, which is what happened on the track. Zenyatta didnt win a non restricted race all year. Blame won four(3 Grade 1's, 1 Grade 3) and got second in a Grade 1 and beat Zenyatta....case closed. I have never seen so many people ignore the fact that one horse beat another when they raced.

Instead of spending your energy blaming a non existent East Coast bias or Beyer, you should blame the connections. If they would have run her in tougher races all year, you could make a better case for Zenyatta.....since they ducked all year and put all their eggs in one basket, the blame is largely on them.


Let me ask you a question.

If you were a big pick 6 player and there was a Breeders Cup 2 that took place at Churchill on Dec 5th and the Classic was the final leg of the sequence, and most of the same competitors were back again including Z and Blame, and you spread in the first 5 races so much that your bankroll was stretched to the max and you had to 'single' someone in the Classic, would you single Blame? Seriously, would you? I know your argument is based around him being the actual best horse and i'm sure you feel he would beat her again and again and again if they kept racing, but would you?

Would you single Blame at 6-5 with Zenyatta sitting up there on the board as the 2-1 second choice?

[Grits]

Fence, I declare, you do fine work. Concise. There's nothing like reading the results--side by side--in black and white.

[delayjf]

She seems to know that today is not a race day for her.

I was there, and as I watched her was thinking the same thing. It was sad to watch her walk the down the stretch and up the wooded back trail that leads to the stable area. Can anyone recall a horse that has captured America's heart they way this mare did??

Let's put that in tabular form
Zeyatta flew by all but one of the horses that your stats are comprised from in the BC.

[FenceBored]

I was there, and as I watched her was thinking the same thing. It was sad to watch her walk the down the stretch and up the wooded back trail that leads to the stable area. Can anyone recall a horse that has captured America's heart they way this mare did??


Zeyatta flew by all but one of the horses that your stats are comprised from in the BC.

So what, she lost.

http://gallery.bloodhorse.com/images/Blame/AE_BlameWC01.jpg

That ain't her in the picture, is it?

[Shelby]

You didn't miss much Shelby - enough already !!

I think she is great as I witnessed at Oaklawn Park back in April but enough already please !!

I'm so glad I got to see her there, too :)


This might be a dumb question, but why can't Zenyatta stay in California and retire? Is it because there are more stud horses in Kentucky?

[Relwob Owner]

Let me ask you a question.

If you were a big pick 6 player and there was a Breeders Cup 2 that took place at Churchill on Dec 5th and the Classic was the final leg of the sequence, and most of the same competitors were back again including Z and Blame, and you spread in the first 5 races so much that your bankroll was stretched to the max and you had to 'single' someone in the Classic, would you single Blame? Seriously, would you? I know your argument is based around him being the actual best horse and i'm sure you feel he would beat her again and again and again if they kept racing, but would you?

Would you single Blame at 6-5 with Zenyatta sitting up there on the board as the 2-1 second choice?



Just to confirm, this is a Horse of the Year Debate, no? Because you are talking about odds, a Breeders Cup 2,etc. etc.........if they ran again and I had to single who was the best horse, I would single Blame.....dumb scenario because in order for them to run again, you would have to wait a long time before her connections choose to run her again against decent open company....

I get it-you think she should be HOY and you love her. I respect that and will respectfully bow out of any further converstaion about it....your reasoning gets further and further from the facts(see Fence Bored's astute post for reality) and you cant seem to see the facts.

[Relwob Owner]

So what, she lost.

http://gallery.bloodhorse.com/images/Blame/AE_BlameWC01.jpg

That ain't her in the picture, is it?



Thank you for posting such a great pictture of the horse who finished ahead of Zenyatta in their 2010 meeting and who is clearly HOY

[PhantomOnTour]

I try and try to stay out of these things but I've just gotta chime:

This HOY 'debate' is contrived. Sorry, but IMO it's a no-brainer. Zenyatta is great and fantastic and all the superlatives you wanna attach to her, but Blame is HOY. Are the Pats the champions because they were undefeated all year and the Giants just barely beat them in the 'championship' game?...NO!

The debate has ended; let us go in peace to love and serve(and bet!) the horses.

[Fager Fan]

The people who say Blame is HOY are totally dismissing what Zenyatta accomplished in 2010.

She tied and set several historical records in 2010 - four to be exact. She crossed the threshold that sets many greats apart from the others of the past few decades, which is recording 10+ G1 stakes. In her case, she recorded her 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th G1 stakes. She won 4 G1s to Blame's 3. She never lost to a G2 horse, not in 2010 and not in her career, but Blame was soundly beaten by Haynesfield. She never lost due to an unfavorable pace scenario, but it resulted in Blame getting soundly beaten. Blame won the BC but she ran the better race and proved that she was the better racehorse.

Nothing at all points to Blame being HOY. Those who mistakenly think he had the better year aren't including all her on-track accomplishments. Those who think he was the better racehorse, well, they can't even tell themselves they believe that one.

[cj]

The people who say Blame is HOY are totally dismissing what Zenyatta accomplished in 2010.

She tied and set several historical records in 2010 - four to be exact. She crossed the threshold that sets many greats apart from the others of the past few decades, which is recording 10+ G1 stakes. In her case, she recorded her 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th G1 stakes.

All of that stuff requires using races from other years.

Of course he was the better horse. He beat her fair and square with both having clean trips.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I wouldn't think it a travesty if Zenyatta did win, but I do believe that Blame is more deserving at this point.

The cases that I read daily for Zenyatta, the most well conceived are tremendous arguments for Hall of Fame induction, but not convincing enough for a year end honor against this particular horse which outfinished her on what was billed as her "defining" day.

[Grits]

I'm so glad I got to see her there, too :)


This might be a dumb question, but why can't Zenyatta stay in California and retire? Is it because there are more stud horses in Kentucky?

Shelby, you answered your own question. Click on the thumbnails to see the entire tower. I pass this every time I drive into Lexington.

http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM2EJR_Horse_Capital_of_the_World_Lexington_KY

[FenceBored]

The people who say Blame is HOY are totally dismissing what Zenyatta accomplished in 2010.

She tied and set several historical records in 2010 - four to be exact. She crossed the threshold that sets many greats apart from the others of the past few decades, which is recording 10+ G1 stakes. In her case, she recorded her 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th G1 stakes. She won 4 G1s to Blame's 3. She never lost to a G2 horse, not in 2010 and not in her career, but Blame was soundly beaten by Haynesfield. She never lost due to an unfavorable pace scenario, but it resulted in Blame getting soundly beaten. Blame won the BC but she ran the better race and proved that she was the better racehorse.

Nothing at all points to Blame being HOY. Those who mistakenly think he had the better year aren't including all her on-track accomplishments. Those who think he was the better racehorse, well, they can't even tell themselves they believe that one.

There's only one word to describe the last paragraph: delusional.

Let's revisit those stats I posted earlier, excluding those horses Blame won over only in the BC. Dang, he still faced tougher.

Zenyatta in her 5 wins won over horses who were:
20.59% - 28 for 136 all non-Zenyatta won races
10.34% - 06 for 58 Graded Stakes
0 G1 winners with 0 G1 wins

Blame in his 3 pre-BC wins won over horses who were:
30.48% - 32 for 105 all non-Blame won races;
26.32% - 15 for 57 just Graded Stakes
4 G1 winners with 6 G1 wins

Whose competition looks more like that of a HOY contender, and whose looks like that of a poseur?

[Grits]

http://www.keeneland.com/Lists/News/dispform.aspx?ID=6617

http://www.drf.com/news/weather-causes-flight-delay-zenyatta

That Tex Sutton jet Zenyatta's on--its running a couple of hours late. Its REAL cold in Kentucky. Early this a.m. was only 16 degrees with a high of 23 expected. Those folks at Keeneland that'll be waiting after dark around the outdoor sales ring to see her--they're some tough souls.

She better step off that plane at Bluegrass Airport sporting a mink blanket. This girl ain't used to this kinda cold!!!

I try not to say these things if I can help it--but tonight after all this parading and all this cold, when she's put in her barn, in her new stall . . . her eyes are gonna be swearing and if she could speak a word . . . she'd be talking dirty.

"WTF, y'all leavin' me here in this damn cold? Y'all lost your minds? Forgot who I am or what?"

Cold ain't it, Zen, and there ain't a Palm tree within 800 miles, either direction.:lol:

Welcome to Kentucky, big girl.:D

[Relwob Owner]

I wouldn't think it a travesty if Zenyatta did win, but I do believe that Blame is more deserving at this point.

The cases that I read daily for Zenyatta, the most well conceived are tremendous arguments for Hall of Fame induction, but not convincing enough for a year end honor against this particular horse which outfinished her on what was billed as her "defining" day.


I really like the Hall of Fame point....I think Zenyatta fans are steered by her body of work, which is remarkable for a career but her 2010 record really doesnt put her past Blame from a Horse of The Year point of view.

On a side note, I must say that it is pretty disappointing that the HOY finalists raced 5 and six times respectively(not that this is unheard of compared with past horses, but still disappointing) and faced each other only once. Is it any wonder that the general public has a tough time getting involved with Horse Racing when the best run so sparingly and so rarely against one another?


I think that is what is so tough to take when we have the fact that Zenyatta was so "good for the game" pushed upon us....yes, she was good for the game, but imagine if she faced the boys more often and created a Battle of the Sexes sort of event each and every time she ran? Could have been cool and also would have taken away the argument she didnt run against much all year.

[andymays]

Zenyatta's Appearance Delayed by Two Hours | BloodHorse.com
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/60219/zenyattas-appearance-delayed-by-two-hours

[DeanT]

if they ran again and I had to single who was the best horse, I would single Blame.....

It shows that horse racing and the Mark Twain line is a great gambling game. I could not disagree more. I would have Zenyatta at 3-5 against Blame even at his home track again. I don't think he is anywhere near as talented, or as complete a racehorse. For her to make up so many lengths on him, while expending so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds of the race, shows (imo) they barely breathe the same air.

[Relwob Owner]

It shows that horse racing and the Mark Twain line is a great gambling game. I could not disagree more. I would have Zenyatta at 3-5 against Blame even at his home track again. I don't think he is anywhere near as talented, or as complete a racehorse. For her to make up so many lengths on him, while expending so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds of the race, shows (imo) they barely breathe the same air.


Somehow, he overcame that deficiency in comparative talent and completeness and beat her fair and square. She had had all year to save for her best race and still couldnt get the job done. You can talk talent and completeness all you want but they raced and he won. I would definitely bet him again.

As far as her action during the beginning of the race. What is to say she wouldnt do that again? Plus, I would always favor a horse with Blame's style as opposed to a late runner like Z who has to get through more horses.

I must imagine that with the belief you have about her talent and completeness, you must question her connections for their campaign with her? My thought is that her campaign shows a complete lack of faith by her own connections in terms of her talent and compeleteness. If they had faith in her ability, why not run her agianst better competition more often? Their answer was that they were pointing her towards one race-a race she lost.

[cj]

It shows that horse racing and the Mark Twain line is a great gambling game. I could not disagree more. I would have Zenyatta at 3-5 against Blame even at his home track again. I don't think he is anywhere near as talented, or as complete a racehorse. For her to make up so many lengths on him, while expending so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds of the race, shows (imo) they barely breathe the same air.

Not sure I've ever heard of a horse showing zero early speed as "expending so much energy".

[DeanT]

Somehow, he overcame that deficiency in comparative talent and completeness and beat her fair and square.

How does a horse not handling a start and not reaching optimal action for the first thirty seconds of the race, fair and square? They are the greatest betbacks for odds in our gambling game.

The problem is Zenyatta - she has people with entrenched positions. It happens with other horses as well.

Let me ask you, if Curlin (who was rumoured to not like synth) started a race discombobulated in the 2008 BC, took 30 seconds to get into a proper action, closed like a freight train and comes within six inches of beating Raven's Pass, would anyone say Raven's Pass was the "better horse"? I doubt it very much, but with her, people will stick to their guns no matter what.

Not sure I've ever heard of a horse showing zero early speed as "expending so much energy".

When horses are not handling a situation properly they are expending energy because they are working harder to go a set speed. Feet per second does not matter. You know this because I am sure you have bet back horses who get beat 15 after starting a race and not getting into rhythm until late. Junior people call it a bounce, experienced handicppers and replay watchers call it opportunity.

[cj]

When horses are not handling a situation properly they are expending energy because they are working harder to go a set speed. Feet per second does not matter. You know this because I am sure you have bet back horses who get beat 15 after starting a race and not getting into rhythm until late. Junior people call it a bounce, experienced handicppers and replay watchers call it opportunity.

She looked like she does in all her races to me. I predicted for months she would be way too far back. That she came close was pretty darn good, but it doesn't mean the exact same thing wouldn't happen again. And, it doesn't mean the pace would favor her style like it did either.

[Valuist]

How does a horse not handling a start and not reaching optimal action for the first thirty seconds of the race, fair and square? They are the greatest betbacks for odds in our gambling game.

The problem is Zenyatta - she has people with entrenched positions. It happens with other horses as well.

Let me ask you, if Curlin (who was rumoured to not like synth) started a race discombobulated in the 2008 BC, took 30 seconds to get into a proper action, closed like a freight train and comes within six inches of beating Raven's Pass, would anyone say Raven's Pass was the "better horse"? I doubt it very much, but with her, people will stick to their guns no matter what.



When horses are not handling a situation properly they are expending energy because they are working harder to go a set speed. Feet per second does not matter. You know this because I am sure you have bet back horses who get beat 15 after starting a race and not getting into rhythm until late. Junior people call it a bounce, experienced handicppers and replay watchers call it opportunity.

Where is the evidence she wasn't handling the track? She ALWAYS races at the back of the pack. The reason she was further back than usual was the pace of the race was much faster than anything she was used to over the synthetic surfaces. And in her last dirt race, there wasn't much pace because you had such a small field of overmatched horses and nobody there was capable of a fast pace. Too bad they can't meet up again because I'm confident Blame would beat her again.

[DeanT]

She looked like she does in all her races to me. I predicted for months she would be way too far back.

She did not look the same to other bettors though CJ. Me included.

Do you know what happened at Betfair in running? There were not stupid people laying her for the first part of the race, risking tens of thousands of dollars - they can read fractions and know when a horse is in a position that it is supposed to. They also know how she travels over a track. Hell they would have to be flat-out idiots not to know she would be dead last after watching her last year.

She was skying in odds. They gave her less than an 8% chance because she was so out of rhythm. She was 8-5 at close and five seconds into the race she was 5-1. This might have been a "good trip" to some in the press, but to people putting their hard earned cash down it was a horrid one.

In running betting takes a lot out of redboarding. If we look at fractions and the race on paper, she was getting an ok trip - one we might expect. If we look at what happened and how she was traveling, she once again fired a cannon; one which 98 out of 100 horses can not fire after starting that way. it was one of the best performances I have seen in a long time. I expected her to be beat double digits, as did (I think) a lot of peoeple, including the sharpies at betfair.

[BluegrassProf]

Let me ask you, if Curlin (who was rumoured to not like synth) started a race discombobulated in the 2008 BC, took 30 seconds to get into a proper action, closed like a freight train and comes within six inches of beating Raven's Pass, would anyone say Raven's Pass was the "better horse"? I doubt it very much, but with her, people will stick to their guns no matter what.Duuude! I'm right there with ya!

I mean, obviously both Curlin and Zen had fabtastic tough transnational seasons (careers, too!), and since Zen was switching to the reviled dirtz surface, it's like totally the same thing as from dirtz to synth. Heck, did you ever see Curlin and Zen in the same place at the same time? It's like they're the same horse!

Besides, it's so completely sensical to assume Zen'd CRRRUSSHHH! (shoutout to SRU!) the tippy-top-level competition on any other day given all those previous days of showing us otherwise. Remember those? I sure do! Boy oh boy did Blame-o (more like lame-o!!) ever get lucky ducky!

And c'mon, guys: Zen was obviously sooo confused when she broke - I could see it in her people-eyes, just like the Betfair pros. I'm surprised she didn't just drop over right then and there from the shock of it all. Saints be praised!




(*This is the best game evar!!*)

[cj]

She did not look the same to other bettors though CJ. Me included.

Do you know what happened at Betfair in running? There were not stupid people laying her for the first part of the race, risking tens of thousands of dollars - they can read fractions and know when a horse is in a position that it is supposed to. They also know how she travels over a track. Hell they would have to be flat-out idiots not to know she would be dead last after watching her last year.

She was skying in odds. They gave her less than an 8% chance because she was so out of rhythm. She was 8-5 at close and five seconds into the race she was 5-1. This might have been a "good trip" to some in the press, but to people putting their hard earned cash down it was a horrid one.

In running betting takes a lot out of redboarding. If we look at fractions and the race on paper, she was getting an ok trip - one we might expect. If we look at what happened and how she was traveling, she once again fired a cannon; one which 98 out of 100 horses can not fire after starting that way. it was one of the best performances I have seen in a long time. I expected her to be beat double digits, as did (I think) a lot of peoeple, including the sharpies at betfair.

The people at Betfair can read fractions? I'm not so sure about that. Hell, most people here don't know how to do it and we have fractions and dirt year round.

[DeanT]

The people at Betfair can read fractions? I'm not so sure about that. Hell, most people here don't know how to do it and we have fractions and dirt year round.

I would hope they do. A friend of mine got filled against her at 12-1,m where she traded a fair amount (there was $3M+ bet on the race, so there was liquidity). He thought it was free money. And I assure you, he can read fractions.

I knew they were going speed, but I did not like her action and gave her a 5% chance. Did not get filled at 20-1 before the quarter pole.

[cj]

If he was laying 12 to 1 after the first or second fraction, I'd say he didn't know much about fractions at CD.

Why would anyone see a big speed duel and assume a closer had no chance going 1 1/4m?

[Sugar Ron]

Some fine work DeanT

Couldn't agree more with some of the things you're saying about the BCC.

Even my brother's tot could see Z wasn't running comfortably the first couple furlongs of the race and that she appeared to be the best horse despite the narrow loss.

Anyone saying they would've bet Blame hard in a 10f rematch is just blowing hot air on the 'net, in my opinion.

[cj]

Some fine work DeanT

Couldn't agree more with some of the things you're saying about the BCC.

Even my brother's tot could see Z wasn't running comfortably the first couple furlongs of the race and that she appeared to be the best horse despite the narrow loss.

Anyone saying they would've bet Blame hard in a 10f rematch is just blowing hot air on the 'net, in my opinion.

Yep, finding excuses for 3 to 5 shots is the way to profit in this game, especially when you can bet them back at the same odds. Nice strategy.

[andymays]

Some fine work DeanT

Couldn't agree more with some of the things you're saying about the BCC.

Even my brother's tot could see Z wasn't running comfortably the first couple furlongs of the race and that she appeared to be the best horse despite the narrow loss.

Anyone saying they would've bet Blame hard in a 10f rematch is just blowing hot air on the 'net, in my opinion.

You would really take even money again and let Blame go off at 5-1???

[Relwob Owner]

How does a horse not handling a start and not reaching optimal action for the first thirty seconds of the race, fair and square? They are the greatest betbacks for odds in our gambling game.

The problem is Zenyatta - she has people with entrenched positions. It happens with other horses as well.

Let me ask you, if Curlin (who was rumoured to not like synth) started a race discombobulated in the 2008 BC, took 30 seconds to get into a proper action, closed like a freight train and comes within six inches of beating Raven's Pass, would anyone say Raven's Pass was the "better horse"? I doubt it very much, but with her, people will stick to their guns no matter what.



When horses are not handling a situation properly they are expending energy because they are working harder to go a set speed. Feet per second does not matter. You know this because I am sure you have bet back horses who get beat 15 after starting a race and not getting into rhythm until late. Junior people call it a bounce, experienced handicppers and replay watchers call it opportunity.



I am definitely not one of those entrenched people....I try and see things from all angles and think that the debate can be broken down to a debate outside of her in terms of what does Horse of the Year mean and how with her, people seem to bleed her races over the last three years into 2010.

As far as the start of the race goes, I will watch it again but 30 seconds seems like an overstatement in terms of how long whatever issues she was having lasted....I am still not positive there were any issues at all outside of the fact that she always is far back and she was even farther back because she was facing a full field of decent horses this time. I also think her "not handling it properly" could happen the next tiem she runs and again and again and again...plus, as I mentioned, her running style puts her at an immediate disadvantage, which was helped by the short, relatively talentless fields she ran against all year.

I am still puzzled by you saying how much more talented and complete Zenyatta is......what races show this? I dont feel like any of the restricted races she won would show she is better than Blame. Her synthetic win in the BC was strong but on her home track and synthetics and number wise was almost the same as this year's BC....again, if she was so talented and complete, why not run against better horses? If she was so talented and complete, how do you reconcile this with her campaign, designed by those who are supposed to know her the best?

Always good debating with ya Dean ;)

[DeanT]

If he was laying 12 to 1 after the first or second fraction, I'd say he didn't know much about fractions at CD.

Why would anyone see a big speed dual and assume a closer had no chance going 1 1/4m?

That's back to question 1 - you dont agree she was traveling poorly and a lot of other people do. Therein lies the crux.

For the record, at 12-1 if she was hunky dory (and my friend was so dumb) one would figure it would all get scooped up by smart people going long on her who know CD and fractions, but it was not. There was plenty left on the bid until it got slowly pulled at the half (where she looked to be getting into a rhythm).

[cj]

That's back to question 1 - you dont agree she was traveling poorly and a lot of other people do. Therein lies the crux.

For the record, at 12-1 if she was hunky dory (and my friend was so dumb) one would figure it would all get scooped up by smart people going long on her who know CD and fractions, but it was not. There was plenty left on the bid until it got slowly pulled at the half (where she looked to be getting into a rhythm).

I really don't know enough about in running betting and liquidity at Betfair to comment on that part. I also can't speak for other bettors. Barring falling down, I think offering 20 times the starting tote price was very poor strategy. These people you keep bringing up were obviously wrong in their opinion, but you prop them up as being smart.

We can disagree, that is fine, I'm just not in the habit of excusing slow starters for being slow at the start. It has served me well over the years.

[thaskalos]

Wouldn't it be nice if the Rachel fans gave Zenyatta the same retirement send-off as we Zenyatta fans gave Rachel...?

Instead...this thread turns into another argument.

FenceBored with the same stats, affirming Blame's "obvious" superiority - with a "winner's circle" picture thrown in for added emphasis...and CJ again explaining to us the ideal trip that Zenyatta enjoyed in the Classic - only to fall short.

[Cardus]

The people who say Blame is HOY are totally dismissing what Zenyatta accomplished in 2010.

She tied and set several historical records in 2010 - four to be exact. She crossed the threshold that sets many greats apart from the others of the past few decades, which is recording 10+ G1 stakes. In her case, she recorded her 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th G1 stakes. She won 4 G1s to Blame's 3. She never lost to a G2 horse, not in 2010 and not in her career, but Blame was soundly beaten by Haynesfield. She never lost due to an unfavorable pace scenario, but it resulted in Blame getting soundly beaten. Blame won the BC but she ran the better race and proved that she was the better racehorse.

Nothing at all points to Blame being HOY. Those who mistakenly think he had the better year aren't including all her on-track accomplishments. Those who think he was the better racehorse, well, they can't even tell themselves they believe that one.

Of all the possible sign-on names in the universe, you chose to use the name of a legendary Thoroughbred and post this (among other absurdities)?

[cj]

I think he is a fan of Prosper Fager.

[cj]

Wouldn't it be nice if the Rachel fans gave Zenyatta the same retirement send-off as we Zenyatta fans gave Rachel...?

Instead...this thread turns into another argument.

FenceBored with the same stats, affirming Blame's "obvious" superiority - with a "winner's circle" picture thrown in for added emphasis...and CJ again explaining to us the ideal trip that Zenyatta enjoyed in the Classic - only to fall short.

You think she'll leave her feed tub full now or something? Given everything else she can do, registering at PA and reading the thread seem reasonable.

[DeanT]

I also think her "not handling it properly" could happen the next tiem she runs and again and again and again...plus, as I mentioned, her running style puts her at an immediate disadvantage, which was helped by the short, relatively talentless fields she ran against all year.

Always good debating with ya Dean ;)

I dont disagree with any of that. I had her somewhere around 3-1 fair odds for the race beforehand because of many of those issues.

I am not arguing about her place in history, which races she should not have skipped or any of the sort. That is a circular, crazy thing I want no part of here any longer.

IMO,, the BC was an interesting race from many handicapping perspectives so discussing that I find fun; so that is all I am talking about. I have read on many websites from "sportswriters" how Z's trip was so good, and I wonder how they see that, while most of the betting world seems to disagree. It is rare to see an 8-5 shot 12-1 in running with so many bettors having that opinion would you not agree?. It adds to the interesting nature of one of the better races we've watched in a long while.

[Relwob Owner]

Wouldn't it be nice if the Rachel fans gave Zenyatta the same retirement send-off as we Zenyatta fans gave Rachel...?

Instead...this thread turns into another argument.

FenceBored with the same stats, affirming Blame's "obvious" superiority - with a "winner's circle" picture thrown in for added emphasis...and CJ again explaining to us the ideal trip that Zenyatta enjoyed in the Classic - only to fall short.



Actually, a Zenyatta fan opened the door for it being another argument....check post number 3.


Now, you are taking it back to the Zenyatta vs Rachel and relating it to whose fans do what....

Fence Bored simply posted the facts, which I admit can be hard to swallow if you back Zenyatta for HOY....the winner's circle picture seems a nice fit because many forget that Blame beat Zenyatta and the picture seems to be a needed reminder.....

[horses4courses]

Cold ain't it, Zen, and there ain't a Palm tree within 800 miles, either direction.:lol:

Welcome to Kentucky, big girl.:D

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..........
Proof positive why I miss California before long when I leave home.
Get our share of snow in Tahoe, but it's hard to beat. :)

[Stillriledup]

Just to confirm, this is a Horse of the Year Debate, no? Because you are talking about odds, a Breeders Cup 2,etc. etc.........if they ran again and I had to single who was the best horse, I would single Blame.....dumb scenario because in order for them to run again, you would have to wait a long time before her connections choose to run her again against decent open company....

I get it-you think she should be HOY and you love her. I respect that and will respectfully bow out of any further converstaion about it....your reasoning gets further and further from the facts(see Fence Bored's astute post for reality) and you cant seem to see the facts.


ACtually, you still don't get it and you pwob'ly never will.

[Relwob Owner]

I dont disagree with any of that. I had her somewhere around 3-1 fair odds for the race beforehand because of many of those issues.

I am not arguing about her place in history, which races she should not have skipped or any of the sort. That is a circular, crazy thing I want no part of here any longer.

IMO,, the BC was an interesting race from many handicapping perspectives so discussing that I find fun; so that is all I am talking about. I have read on many websites from "sportswriters" how Z's trip was so good, and I wonder how they see that, while most of the betting world seems to disagree. It is rare to see an 8-5 shot 12-1 in running with so many bettors having that opinion would you not agree?. It adds to the interesting nature of one of the better races we've watched in a long while.



As always you present facts in a clear concise way and while I dont always agree, I always find myself considering them to see if I missed anything, which happens....

As far as it being "one of the better races we've watched in a long while", I cannot agree more. I have it saved on my TIVO and have watched it hundreds of times. Not as much to see what Zenyatta did or didnt do-more because how it was run and how it ended reminds me of why I love this sport so much and how exciting it can be......I still cringe when Bailey(I think it was him) yaps at Mike Smith right after the race and doesnt seem to get how crushed he must be....

[Relwob Owner]

ACtually, you still don't get it and you pwob'ly never will.


If "not getting it" means understanding your reasoning, I hope to God I never get it......

[Stillriledup]

Some fine work DeanT

Couldn't agree more with some of the things you're saying about the BCC.

Even my brother's tot could see Z wasn't running comfortably the first couple furlongs of the race and that she appeared to be the best horse despite the narrow loss.

Anyone saying they would've bet Blame hard in a 10f rematch is just blowing hot air on the 'net, in my opinion.


its a delusional concept to think anyone who knows the game and knows how to watch and dissect videotape would be betting Blame in a rematch.

Z would be blasted off the board and probably go to post at 3-5 and Blame would be 3rd choice behind Successful Dan.

[BluegrassProf]

its a delusional concept to think anyone who knows the game and knows how to watch and dissect videotape would be betting Blame in a rematch.

Z would be blasted off the board and probably go to post at 3-5 and Blame would be 3rd choice behind Successful Dan.Right, based on a funtastic combination of eyewitness experience and all that stuff you said.

Makes sense to me! :ThmbUp:

[cj]

its a delusional concept to think anyone who knows the game and knows how to watch and dissect videotape would be betting Blame in a rematch.

Z would be blasted off the board and probably go to post at 3-5 and Blame would be 3rd choice behind Successful Dan.

It was your standard inane post, but the bolded section makes it Hall of Fame worthy.

[thaskalos]

Given everything else she can do, registering at PA and reading the thread seem reasonable.
I hope, for her sake, that she can't.

But seriously though...

Why the need to correct people when they try to make the point that Zenyatta may have been the best horse in the Classic? Was the outcome so definitive as to leave no doubt behind?

I understand finding fault with the "Zenyatta for HOY" arguments - heck, even I stated emphatically that Blame deserves the HOY award - but DeanT's comment that Zenyatta was the best horse in this year's Classic is an entirely different argument...and it sounds reasonable to me.

[johnhannibalsmith]

its a delusional concept ...

I googled "delusional concept" and all I could find was something about a car show??!?!?? :confused: :confused: :confused:

[Relwob Owner]

I hope, for her sake, that she can't.

But seriously though...

Why the need to correct people when they try to make the point that Zenyatta may have been the best horse in the Classic? Was the outcome so definitive as to leave no doubt behind?

I understand finding fault with the "Zenyatta for HOY" arguments - heck, even I stated emphatically that Blame deserves the HOY award - but DeanT's comment that Zenyatta was the best horse in this year's Classic is an entirely different argument...and it sounds reasonable to me.


I think it is extremely reasonable but I guess sometimes the HOY argument bleeds over....I can see both sides of the argument about her, Blame and the Classic as an individual race and due to the uncertainty regarding what she was doing in the first part of the race.....that being said, I would still bet Blame again because in a full field, I think he always gets the jump on her and has less chance of trouble.

[FenceBored]

Wouldn't it be nice if the Rachel fans gave Zenyatta the same retirement send-off as we Zenyatta fans gave Rachel...?

Instead...this thread turns into another argument.

FenceBored with the same stats, affirming Blame's "obvious" superiority - with a "winner's circle" picture thrown in for added emphasis...and CJ again explaining to us the ideal trip that Zenyatta enjoyed in the Classic - only to fall short.

What, we're being too kind, compared to the Rachel baiters? No need to thank us, but you're welcome.

[Relwob Owner]

It was your standard inane post, but the bolded section makes it Hall of Fame worthy.


Timely Avatar switch:)

[johnhannibalsmith]

.....that being said, I would still bet Blame again because in a full field, I think he always gets the jump on her and has less chance of trouble....

...plus your getting offered five times the return for the same investment and whatwithall her early issues, she still probably got a top ride from Mike Smith that despite how much head hanging he does, was probably light years better than what he'd come with seven times out of ten.

[BluegrassProf]

Hmmz. How's about we edit this a lick...
Why the need to correct people when they try to make the point that Blame may have been the best horse in the Classic? Was the outcome so definitive as to leave no doubt behind?There ya go, my man. Perhaps you can work it all out for yourself...or better yet, given the content of this thread, perhaps you'll leave this particular argument well enough alone. ;)

Just a thought.

[DeanT]

As far as it being "one of the better races we've watched in a long while", I cannot agree more. I have it saved on my TIVO and have watched it hundreds of times. Not as much to see what Zenyatta did or didnt do-more because how it was run and how it ended reminds me of why I love this sport so much and how exciting it can be......I still cringe when Bailey(I think it was him) yaps at Mike Smith right after the race and doesnt seem to get how crushed he must be....

It truly was everything we hoped - it had drama and the whole racing world (and a whack of non racing people) watched to see what would happen. Under the lights made it even more of a spectacle.

The sad part for me is mine and your argument - in racing we can not settle it on the track. Her and Blame are done. In the NFL you will have a super bowl game and next year the season will open with the same two teams playing perhaps. Not in our sport.

What I am happy about, is that we did not see a race where she didnt fire, or some dawdling pace of 50, where her and Blame would both be compromised. That's a problem with racing - many of the races are one shot deals and if a horse does not fire, or gets a poor trip as a closer, it means nothing.

I remember the Jessica is Back/Rachel race that generated a ton of discussion here. I thought JIB had a good shot and was a nice mare. But she was rank and puked. You could use that as a betback on her next time if you wanted, hopefully in a rematch, because there was a chance. If I want to see Z next time against Blame and have a poke at a bet, we have to do it on a video game.

[cj]

I hope, for her sake, that she can't.

But seriously though...

Why the need to correct people when they try to make the point that Zenyatta may have been the best horse in the Classic? Was the outcome so definitive as to leave no doubt behind?

I understand finding fault with the "Zenyatta for HOY" arguments - heck, even I stated emphatically that Blame deserves the HOY award - but DeanT's comment that Zenyatta was the best horse in this year's Classic is an entirely different argument...and it sounds reasonable to me.

Sure it is reasonable, but it is flawed in my opinion and goes against everything I've learned about dirt racing. I'm a bettor, I have strong opinions and stand by them until proven wrong. It isn't like my thoughts are random guesses, I've been doing this a long time and put up a lot of money.

[horses4courses]

Well, considering I started this thread yesterday to remind anyone who might be watching football, or Food Network, or HSN, that Zenyatta was soon to be coming on TV, I think this thread got a bit out of hand.

Therefore, to continue the discussion in a more fitting enclosure, I start another (yes, i know....another) thread about the 2010 HOTY scenario.
Only to have it closed by the powers that be.

Whether cj likes it, or not, the discussion about the 2010 HOTY is far from over..........

[cj]

Well, considering I started this thread yesterday to remind anyone who might be watching football, or Food Network, or HSN, that Zenyatta was soon to be coming on TV, I think this thread got a bit out of hand.

Therefore, to continue the discussion in a more fitting enclosure, I start another (yes, i know....another) thread about the 2010 HOTY scenario.
Only to have it closed by the powers that be.

Whether cj likes it, or not, the discussion about the 2010 HOTY is far from over..........

I have no problem with that, but you could have put that last thread into a post in about 70 other threads on the board.

[thaskalos]

I'm a bettor, I have strong opinions and stand by them until proven wrong. It isn't like my thoughts are random guesses, I've been doing this a long time and put up a lot of money.
As opposed to us Zenyatta fans...who seldom bet and are driven solely by sentiment. :)

[Fager Fan]

Where is the evidence she wasn't handling the track? She ALWAYS races at the back of the pack. The reason she was further back than usual was the pace of the race was much faster than anything she was used to over the synthetic surfaces. And in her last dirt race, there wasn't much pace because you had such a small field of overmatched horses and nobody there was capable of a fast pace. Too bad they can't meet up again because I'm confident Blame would beat her again.

Surely you didn't ask that. You do have eyes, and have watched horses race for more than 2 weeks? There have been few clearer demonstrations of a horse not handling the surface as Zenyatta gave on BC day.

[Fager Fan]

Of all the possible sign-on names in the universe, you chose to use the name of a legendary Thoroughbred and post this (among other absurdities)?

Given that you apparently don't agree with my statement, then I'm proud to not be in the same category as you regarding the judging of horse flesh.

[cj]

As opposed to us Zenyatta fans...who seldom bet and are driven solely by sentiment. :)

Well, I'd love to see the examples of known closers that start slowly, get a speed duel and fast pace, and don't win that are bet backs.

[cj]

Surely you didn't ask that. You do have eyes, and have watched horses race for more than 2 weeks? There have been few clearer demonstrations of a horse not handling the surface as Zenyatta gave on BC day.

This is the silliest part of the argument. If she didn't handle it, what changed that she suddenly did handle it? It was the same surface. She has no early speed, period.

[PaceAdvantage]

It shows that horse racing and the Mark Twain line is a great gambling game. I could not disagree more. I would have Zenyatta at 3-5 against Blame even at his home track again. I don't think he is anywhere near as talented, or as complete a racehorse. For her to make up so many lengths on him, while expending so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds of the race, shows (imo) they barely breathe the same air.I thought similarly but the numbers tend to show she was running at the same speed in the beginning of the BC Classic as she had been in her other races. Isn't that true?

So to say she "expended so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds" might be an illusion more than truth. Was she zig-zagging the width of the homestretch? No, she wasn't. Not sure how she was expending so much energy by going as slow early as she has gone in all her other races.

[Fager Fan]

This is the silliest part of the argument. If she didn't handle it, what changed that she suddenly did handle it? It was the same surface. She has no early speed, period.

You've never been on unusual footing but after a short while you figured out how to get over it? Think of the first time you were on skates, or the first time on skis, or the first time walking across ice, etc.

That she could show that intense of a dislike for the footing and actually be able to nearly win was one of the more remarkable things I've seen a horse do.

For those who can't see nuances of a horse's stride, it's like arguing that a horse has straight legs when they're severely crooked. It's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. If you can't see it, then you need to study it, just as someone may need to study lead changes to then see them.

[cj]

You've never been on unusual footing but after a short while you figured out how to get over it? Think of the first time you were on skates, or the first time on skis, or the first time walking across ice, etc.

That she could show that intense of a dislike for the footing and actually be able to nearly win was one of the more remarkable things I've seen a horse do.

For those who can't see nuances of a horse's stride, it's like arguing that a horse has straight legs when they're severely crooked. It's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. If you can't see it, then you need to study it, just as someone may need to study lead changes to then see them.

I'm amazed the excuses keep coming for a horse that doesn't need one. She ran great, she just wasn't good enough.

[PaceAdvantage]

That she could show that intense of a dislike for the footing and actually be able to nearly win was one of the more remarkable things I've seen a horse do.I'm thinking perhaps she was touched by an angel at some point early?

[Valuist]

Surely you didn't ask that. You do have eyes, and have watched horses race for more than 2 weeks? There have been few clearer demonstrations of a horse not handling the surface as Zenyatta gave on BC day.

Obviously reading is a skill you don't have as you didn't read past the first sentence of my post. First off, if she truly hated the track, she wouldn't have rallied. Secondly, the fact she was far back early is in no way indicative that she couldn't handle the track. If she likes to lag back in last in slow pace Poly races, certainly she's going to be very far behind a REAL pace on REAL dirt.

[Robert Fischer]

i can't believe u guys are still talking about Zenyatta.

must've been a special horse or something.

[thaskalos]

There ya go, my man. Perhaps you can work it all out for yourself...or better yet, given the content of this thread, perhaps you'll leave this particular argument well enough alone. ;)

Just a thought.
Much obliged for the wise counsel Professor...it's just that my emotions get the better of me sometimes.

As usual, you are right...the Zenyatta bickering is over with - for me at least.

Time to move on to something else.

[Valuist]

You've never been on unusual footing but after a short while you figured out how to get over it? Think of the first time you were on skates, or the first time on skis, or the first time walking across ice, etc.

That she could show that intense of a dislike for the footing and actually be able to nearly win was one of the more remarkable things I've seen a horse do.

For those who can't see nuances of a horse's stride, it's like arguing that a horse has straight legs when they're severely crooked. It's not a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. If you can't see it, then you need to study it, just as someone may need to study lead changes to then see them.

I have never seen someone who was lousy on ice skates get it figured out within the first minute and 36 seconds.

[DeanT]

I thought similarly but the numbers tend to show she was running at the same speed in the beginning of the BC Classic as she had been in her other races. Isn't that true?

So to say she "expended so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds" might be an illusion more than truth. Was she zig-zagging the width of the homestretch? No, she wasn't. Not sure how she was expending so much energy by going as slow early as she has gone in all her other races.

Hi Pace,

A matter of opinion I would guess. I think she was asked early (Mike Smith said he was and I think that's true). So sure she ran the same speed, but expended more energy to get there.

It's nuanced opinion anyway. People look at the Secretariat Belmont and marvel at the final time, but I marvel at the track record he ran in it at 10f. I marvel that he was asked to scoot by being scrubbed on an eighth of a mile into the race to protect the wood, and still be able to motor for another mile and three eighths and not get tired. It's the way I look at races.

I marvel that that mare, who looked completely uncomfortable to me for about a quarter and a bit (an action that I bet against at BF in UK racing all the time), who I would have bet would get beaten badly, fired her gun and almost ran down a really nice colt.

Doesnt mean its right, it is simply my opinion on the nuances of that race.

[Fager Fan]

Obviously reading is a skill you don't have as you didn't read past the first sentence of my post. First off, if she truly hated the track, she wouldn't have rallied. Secondly, the fact she was far back early is in no way indicative that she couldn't handle the track. If she likes to lag back in last in slow pace Poly races, certainly she's going to be very far behind a REAL pace on REAL dirt.

This is too funny for words. Just what do you figure the horse is doing out there with that stride? Showing her love for the surface? Practicing her steeplechase skills?

I knew she'd be 15-20 behind, running 49+. Anyone who can read a form can see that. That has nothing to do with her not being fully in the race early. She also ran 50+ and probably was closer to 25 behind between points of call, and the 50+ can't be disputed. Neither can her being uncomfortable.

[Cardus]

This is too funny for words. Just what do you figure the horse is doing out there with that stride? Showing her love for the surface? Practicing her steeplechase skills?

I knew she'd be 15-20 behind, running 49+. Anyone who can read a form can see that. That has nothing to do with her not being fully in the race early. She also ran 50+ and probably was closer to 25 behind between points of call, and the 50+ can't be disputed. Neither can her being uncomfortable.

It was more like 30 to 35 lengths, no?

[cj]

It was more like 30 to 35 lengths, no?

Lets call it 47, might as well make it good.

[andymays]

http://www.drf.com/news/zenyatta-and-her-fans-enjoy-one-last-dance

Excerpt:

LEXINGTON, Ky. - Zenyatta's retirement celebration at Keeneland Monday night wasn't just for Kentuckians. Undaunted by 18-degree temperatures, an estimated 1,200 fans came from as far as Washington state, Wisconsin, and New York, and as close as the neighborhoods just across Versailles Road from Keeneland.

[horses4courses]

http://www.drf.com/news/zenyatta-and-her-fans-enjoy-one-last-dance

Excerpt:

LEXINGTON, Ky. - Zenyatta's retirement celebration at Keeneland Monday night wasn't just for Kentuckians. Undaunted by 18-degree temperatures, an estimated 1,200 fans came from as far as Washington state, Wisconsin, and New York, and as close as the neighborhoods just across Versailles Road from Keeneland.


Brave souls, indeed.
Anything planned for Blame? :rolleyes:

[BluegrassProf]

Anything planned for Blame? :rolleyes:Word.

At least we have our priorities squarely in line. :ThmbUp:

[Relwob Owner]

Brave souls, indeed.
Anything planned for Blame? :rolleyes:


Blame doesnt have anything planned for him....what does it matter? His fans did all the adoring they had to do on on the day it counted when he beat Zenyatta........he is admittedly ordinary when compared with Zenyatta in the sense that he is a male horse who didnt win all of his races but had a terrific 2010 and one that was better than Zenyatta had. He also beat the horse that everyone adores for her uniqueness and that, along with his 2010 schedule, makes him horse of the year.

Zenyatta was unique in that she only lost once and put together three incredible years....unfortunately, she got beat in the biggest race of her life and that, along with an absurdly conservative schedule, cost her HOY.


It is amazing the amount of people who judge how good Zenyatta is and whether or not she deserves Horse of the Year based on her popularity.....it makes no sense

[delayjf]

So what, she lost.

That's right, she lost - the best horse doesn't always win the race or are you going to argue that Excellor was a better horse than Seattle Slew because he won the JCGC. Using Blames competition as an argument against Zenyatta is nebulus because Zenyatta beat his competition, excluding of course Rachael Alexandar who had already retired. A pity, two more strides and Zenyatta would have had him.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That's right, she lost - the best horse doesn't always win the race or are you going to argue that Excellor was a better horse than Seattle Slew because he won the JCGC. Using Blames competition as an argument against Zenyatta is nebulus because Zenyatta beat his competition, excluding of course Rachael Alexandar who had already retired. A pity, two more strides and Zenyatta would have had him.

Cue the violins!!:cool:

[Stillriledup]

Blame doesnt have anything planned for him....what does it matter? His fans did all the adoring they had to do on on the day it counted when he beat Zenyatta........he is admittedly ordinary when compared with Zenyatta in the sense that he is a male horse who didnt win all of his races but had a terrific 2010 and one that was better than Zenyatta had. He also beat the horse that everyone adores for her uniqueness and that, along with his 2010 schedule, makes him horse of the year.

Zenyatta was unique in that she only lost once and put together three incredible years....unfortunately, she got beat in the biggest race of her life and that, along with an absurdly conservative schedule, cost her HOY.


It is amazing the amount of people who judge how good Zenyatta is and whether or not she deserves Horse of the Year based on her popularity.....it makes no sense


Blame has fans? Who knew.

[Stillriledup]

i can't believe u guys are still talking about Zenyatta.

must've been a special horse or something.

She's good, but she's no Blame (allegedly). :eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

Brave souls, indeed.
Anything planned for Blame? :rolleyes:Yes...I believe the date for his celebration is set for January 17

[PaceAdvantage]

That's right, she lost - the best horse doesn't always win the race or are you going to argue that Excellor was a better horse than Seattle Slew because he won the JCGC. Using Blames competition as an argument against Zenyatta is nebulus because Zenyatta beat his competition, excluding of course Rachael Alexandar who had already retired. A pity, two more strides and Zenyatta would have had him.Yes, but Seattle Slew, like Secretariat before him, had a massive resume to fall back on...a resume filled with soul-stirring victories over open company foes...

Zenyatta had one soul-stirring victory over open company, but that happened in 2009...doesn't count this year...

[Stillriledup]

Yes...I believe the date for his celebration is set for January 17

I'll be sure to take off work that day to celebrate. :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll be sure to take off work that day to celebrate. :rolleyes:No need. It's a nighttime affair.

[FenceBored]

That's right, she lost - the best horse doesn't always win the race or are you going to argue that Excellor was a better horse than Seattle Slew because he won the JCGC. Using Blames competition as an argument against Zenyatta is nebulus because Zenyatta beat his competition, excluding of course Rachael Alexandar who had already retired. A pity, two more strides and Zenyatta would have had him.

But sometimes the best horse (Blame) does win the race, or are you going to argue that Anabaa's Creation is a better horse than Zenyatta, since she too only lost by a head?

Blame goes into the record books as beating that field. Zenyatta and Fly Down don't. Pleasant Prince's connections should be laughed out of town if they start claiming they 'beat' Quality Road. If you want the credit, and the big check, you should cross the line first.

[Relwob Owner]

Yes...I believe the date for his celebration is set for January 17


S***-why didnt I think of that......

[horses4courses]

Well , I suppose starting this thread as a mere "heads up", and having it turn into 100+ posts, wasn't what I bargained for, either.

Starting a discussion on the same topic, but from a different angle, does not please the forum gods......oh well.

Giving people what they want around here is, obviously, not very high on the priority list.

There is no shortage, though, of airing what pleases the administrators.

[delayjf]

Yes, but Seattle Slew, like Secretariat before him, had a massive resume to fall back on...a resume filled with soul-stirring victories over open company foes...

I'm not comparing Zenyatta to Slew, my point was that sometimes the best horse does not win. And speaking of nighttime affairs - does anyone know who they will breed Zenyatta too.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well , I suppose starting this thread as a mere "heads up", and having it turn into 100+ posts, wasn't what I bargained for, either.

Starting a discussion on the same topic, but from a different angle, does not please the forum gods......oh well.

Giving people what they want around here is, obviously, not very high on the priority list.

There is no shortage, though, of airing what pleases the administrators.Here, let me PLEASE you. I'm going to start a 2010 HOTY thread. Go nuts.

[horses4courses]

Here, let me PLEASE you. I'm going to start a 2010 HOTY thread. Go nuts.

Excellent idea. :jump:

[delayjf]

But sometimes the best horse (Blame) does win the race, or are you going to argue that Anabaa's Creation is a better horse than Zenyatta, since she too only lost by a head?

No, because Anabaa's Creation like Blame had a much better trip than Zenyatta. The circumstances of how the race unfolded beat Zenyatta not Blame. Had the two eye balled each other down the stretch ala Affirmed / Alydar in the Belmont or Sunday Silence / Easy Goer in the Preakness I would concede the point. But that's not what happened and you know it.

[Stillriledup]

It shows that horse racing and the Mark Twain line is a great gambling game. I could not disagree more. I would have Zenyatta at 3-5 against Blame even at his home track again. I don't think he is anywhere near as talented, or as complete a racehorse. For her to make up so many lengths on him, while expending so much energy with her action the first 30 seconds of the race, shows (imo) they barely breathe the same air.

FINALLY someone who knows the game! thank you.

[OntheRail]

Some fine work DeanT

Couldn't agree more with some of the things you're saying about the BCC.

Even my brother's tot could see Z wasn't running comfortably the first couple furlongs of the race and that she appeared to be the best horse despite the narrow loss.

Anyone saying they would've bet Blame hard in a 10f rematch is just blowing hot air on the 'net, in my opinion.

I think she was surprised they all ran away so fast on dirt compared to how thing had always transpired on synthetics. :lol:

Seriously Now...
Why not I bet him the first go around... See no reason to change that in a full field on dirt the next go around and if our talking a match race I'd take him double down. ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

No, because Anabaa's Creation like Blame had a much better trip than Zenyatta. The circumstances of how the race unfolded beat Zenyatta not Blame. Had the two eye balled each other down the stretch ala Affirmed / Alydar in the Belmont or Sunday Silence / Easy Goer in the Preakness I would concede the point. But that's not what happened and you know it.

Wow.We finally got someone to admit it=that early speed provides a good trip and it's not this evil wretch on cookie cutter tracks that is making for legions of losing horseplayers betting against it.Nice!!:cool:

[delayjf]

Your absolutely right, speed is the Universal track bias on dirt. Which is one reason I'm not totally against synthetic tracks, it tends to even things out a bit. On the other hand, I don't favor the complete flip flop that we saw with some of the early synthetics tracks like Keenland but it seems that they have become more speed friendly recently. I favor whatever is the safest for the horse.

One other thing about the BC, it's not like Zenyatta was attempting to run down a front runner who had contested the early pace and was trying to hang on, She was running down another a multiple grade 1 stretch runner who was also making his move. Again, if he had held sway buy a length or so, I would concede the point, but that's not what happened.

You can start the violins again. :(

[Shelby]

Shelby, you answered your own question. Click on the thumbnails to see the entire tower. I pass this every time I drive into Lexington.

http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM2EJR_Horse_Capital_of_the_World_Lexington_KY


Well, that's that neatest water tower I've ever seen!

[Charlie D]

I. I would have Zenyatta at 3-5 against Blame even at his home track again.


I would be a layer of Z at those odds as there is nothing in her PP's that tells you she should be those odds against horses with the ability of Blame.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Your absolutely right, speed is the Universal track bias on dirt. Which is one reason I'm not totally against synthetic tracks, it tends to even things out a bit. On the other hand, I don't favor the complete flip flop that we saw with some of the early synthetics tracks like Keenland but it seems that they have become more speed friendly recently. I favor whatever is the safest for the horse.

One other thing about the BC, it's not like Zenyatta was attempting to run down a front runner who had contested the early pace and was trying to hang on, She was running down another a multiple grade 1 stretch runner who was also making his move. Again, if he had held sway buy a length or so, I would concede the point, but that's not what happened.

You can start the violins again. :(

This isn't a "Dirt" bias.It's simple fact of things that run.Those who run fast and first don't have anything in their way.To

Always a good trip.Horses shouldn't be "Moved up" because they lack ability to contend a race.Unless mediocrity is the goal.

[delayjf]

If that were true speed would hold up as well on turf and synthetic surfaces, but that's not the case

[FenceBored]

No, because Anabaa's Creation like Blame had a much better trip than Zenyatta. The circumstances of how the race unfolded beat Zenyatta not Blame. Had the two eye balled each other down the stretch ala Affirmed / Alydar in the Belmont or Sunday Silence / Easy Goer in the Preakness I would concede the point. But that's not what happened and you know it.

Blame saw her, rebroke, and held her off. That's what happened and you know it.

[Tom]

Brave souls, indeed.
Anything planned for Blame? :rolleyes:

Why would there be?
Crowds never showed up all year to root for him, and how many visitors to his stall does he get, still?

Maybe if he had generated a quarter of the excitment that Z did all year, some one would think it worthwhile.

[Tom]

Yes...I believe the date for his celebration is set for January 17

MLK Day?

[delayjf]

Blame saw her, rebroke, and held her off. That's what happened and you know it.

I agree with you Blame did fight back, but Zenyatta was still closing on him and got by him a stride or two past the line. Like CJ pointed out previously, I would still like to see if Blame came out enough to cause Zenyatta to shift out a bit which would have also cost her momentem - I don't think that was the case, but it would be interesting to see the head on.

[cj]

I agree with you Blame did fight back, but Zenyatta was still closing on him and got by him a stride or two past the line. Like CJ pointed out previously, I would still like to see if Blame came out enough to cause Zenyatta to shift out a bit which would have also cost her momentem - I don't think that was the case, but it would be interesting to see the head on.

Gomez brought him out enough so he could see her, nothing more. There was no intimidation or "herding" involved.

[FenceBored]

I agree with you Blame did fight back, but Zenyatta was still closing on him and got by him a stride or two past the line. Like CJ pointed out previously, I would still like to see if Blame came out enough to cause Zenyatta to shift out a bit which would have also cost her momentem - I don't think that was the case, but it would be interesting to see the head on.

Overhead says: no and no.

[BluegrassProf]

Gomez brought him out enough so he could see her, nothing more. There was no intimidation or "herding" involved.Dunno, yo...I'm like 93% sure he drew a piece. A cold, steely, cartoonishly-horse-sized Beretta from a giant saddleside holster.

Seriously, watch the replay; it's right there on tape at about 1:59. Go ahead...I'll wait.



See? There ya go: much better explanation than all this "fair win" and "comparable ability" silliness.

GO GO ZENYATTA GREATNESS EXPLOSION!

[Relwob Owner]

Gomez brought him out enough so he could see her, nothing more. There was no intimidation or "herding" involved.


Well, this is a new one.....It is just amazing how many excuses have emerged....my personal favorite involves her "issues" and how she wasnt "comfortable"....it is debatable what was going on and if it did happen, it lasted about 5 or 6 seconds, not the "30 seconds" or "furlong" that people claim....

[cj]

Well, this is a new one.....It is just amazing how many excuses have emerged....my personal favorite involves her "issues" and how she wasnt "comfortable"....it is debatable what was going on and if it did happen, it lasted about 5 or 6 seconds, not the "30 seconds" or "furlong" that people claim....

I thought it was a great piece of riding by Gomez, and I rarely comment on rides, good or bad. It didn't hurt Zenyatta in the least, but it may have helped Blame.

[delayjf]

Overhead says: no and no.

Hey , judge for yourself.

[FenceBored]

Hey , judge for yourself.

He's still ahead. Got photos from the grassy knoll?

[Tom]

Nice interview with John Nerud by Byk this week.
Interesting what the hall of fame trainer, and trainer of Ta Wee and Galorette had to say about Zenyatta's place in history.

Check it out.

(Hint, good thing for him he doesn't post here!):D

[Relwob Owner]

Nice interview with John Nerud by Byk this week.
Interesting what the hall of fame trainer, and trainer of Ta Wee and Galorette had to say about Zenyatta's place in history.

Check it out.

(Hint, good thing for him he doesn't post here!):D


Did he say she should be HOY?

[FenceBored]

Nice interview with John Nerud by Byk this week.
Interesting what the hall of fame trainer, and trainer of Ta Wee and Galorette had to say about Zenyatta's place in history.

Check it out.

(Hint, good thing for him he doesn't post here!):D

I'll certainly give it a listen. But after what he said about Rachel last year (i.e. that she was the best female he'd ever seen), if he says the same thing about Zenyatta, then I'll just have to put him with Bob "'Fill-in-the-blank' is one of the best horses I've ever trained" Baffert as one of those overly swayed by the flavor of the month.

[delayjf]

He's still ahead. Got photos from the grassy knoll?

You are aware that Zenyatta is on the outside, aren't you? If so, how do you conclude that Blame is still ahead?

[FenceBored]

You are aware that Zenyatta is on the outside, aren't you? If so, how do you conclude that Blame is still ahead?

Because of the angle of the photo. Anyone who's spent any time near but not on the finish line knows better than to make too many assumptions about photo finishes based upon their line of sight. To you that looks like she got a nose in front. To me it looks like he's still got his nose in front, correcting for line of sight.

[delayjf]

Because of the angle of the photo

I considered the viewing angle factor but harking back to my Intel analyst days, after studying the photo I have concluded that there are two mitigating factors that would diminish or even negate that optical illusion.

One and probably the biggest factor is that the camera that took this photo was located to the right (from our view) of the finish line, not on the finish line. At CD the finish line for the turf course is an extension of the dirt course finish line with the two finish line poles lined up directly behind each other. In the photo, the base of the turf pole is off to the right of the dirt pole which would only be possible if the photo was taken from the right side of the finish line.

The other factor is distance / height from and above the viewed objects that this photo was taken. As distance / height increases, the viewing angle decreases thereby reducing the optical illusion.

[OntheRail]

I considered the viewing angle factor but harking back to my Intel analyst days, after studying the photo I have concluded that there are two mitigating factors that would diminish or even negate that optical illusion.

One and probably the biggest factor is that the camera that took this photo was located to the right (from our view) of the finish line, not on the finish line. At CD the finish line for the turf course is an extension of the dirt course finish line with the two finish line poles lined up directly behind each other. In the photo, the base of the turf pole is off to the right of the dirt pole which would only be possible if the photo was taken from the right side of the finish line.

The other factor is distance / height from and above the viewed objects that this photo was taken. As distance / height increases, the viewing angle decreases thereby reducing the optical illusion.

They maybe abreast to one another... not in stride so head bobbing out of sync. But the BIGGEST FACTOR is that at that point they are to the right of the finish line and the race is over and if you had a photo sequence of a few more frames... you'd see Blame pulling ahead again. But since they don't pay on who wins the run out I did not collect twice. :D

[FenceBored]

I considered the viewing angle factor but harking back to my Intel analyst days, after studying the photo I have concluded that there are two mitigating factors that would diminish or even negate that optical illusion.

One and probably the biggest factor is that the camera that took this photo was located to the right (from our view) of the finish line, not on the finish line. At CD the finish line for the turf course is an extension of the dirt course finish line with the two finish line poles lined up directly behind each other. In the photo, the base of the turf pole is off to the right of the dirt pole which would only be possible if the photo was taken from the right side of the finish line.

The other factor is distance / height from and above the viewed objects that this photo was taken. As distance / height increases, the viewing angle decreases thereby reducing the optical illusion.

I still think you're dreaming, but why the obsession? The race is to the wire and she lost. If she got her nose barely in front for a jump sometime after the wire, why should anyone care. I know I don't, nor does it have anything to do with anything.

[FenceBored]

Nice interview with John Nerud by Byk this week.
Interesting what the hall of fame trainer, and trainer of Ta Wee and Galorette had to say about Zenyatta's place in history.

Check it out.

(Hint, good thing for him he doesn't post here!):D

Is this the part you're talking about?
"That's where you'll find - A lot of the great mares, I said they're all lesbians. But this mare's not. She's a beautiful mare."
-- John Nerud, appearing on At the Races with Steve Byk, December 7, 2010 Hour 1 (http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/120710a.mp3) (54:48 - 54:58)

[Cardus]

From the "Grasping at Straws Department": I've never seen it mentioned more that a beaten horse passed the winner after the wire.

It's the most irrelevant point -- among a sea of them -- regarding matters Zenyatta.

(Someone forgot to tell her that Blame is a horse who knows where the wire is.)

[Tom]

Is this the part you're talking about?"That's where you'll find - A lot of the great mares, I said they're all lesbians. But this mare's not. She's a beautiful mare."
-- John Nerud, appearing on At the Races with Steve Byk, December 7, 2010 Hour 1 (http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/120710a.mp3) (54:48 - 54:58)


No.

[FenceBored]

No.

Then you must mean this part:

"Well, you go through the ages, the good broodmares I say, if you're picking out a mare to breed look at her and see if she's the one you want to take to dinner."
-- John Nerud, appearing on At the Races with Steve Byk, December 7, 2010 Hour 1 (http://thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/images/stories/audio/120710a.mp3) (55:39 - 55:51)

[Tom]

Wash your hands when you're done.

[FenceBored]

Wash your hands when you're done.

Dude, I ain't making this stuff up! :eek:

You can't make this stuff up. :faint:

[Relwob Owner]

From the "Grasping at Straws Department": I've never seen it mentioned more that a beaten horse passed the winner after the wire.

It's the most irrelevant point -- among a sea of them -- regarding matters Zenyatta.

(Someone forgot to tell her that Blame is a horse who knows where the wire is.)



I really, really think Zenyatta has magical powers of some sort in terms of how she is such a mind wizard and makes people think so illogically-hard to explain......among the excuses/thoughts


She passed Blame past the wire and that somehow matters
She was favored in the Classic and that should have some bearing on the HOY vote
Her performances two years prior to this should have a bearing on the HOY this year.
She had issues for a few furlongs or 30 seconds in the Breeders Cup(watch the replay-didnt happen)
You can run in restricted races all year, lose to your main rival in the biggest race and then come out on top against that horse in HOY voting
How popular she is trumps what is done on the track and has a bearing on HOY
How good she has been for racing trumps what happened on the track and has a bearing on the HOY voting



I am telling ya.....that horse is an absolute mind wizard and I am glad I didnt fall under her spell.....

[DeanT]

She had issues for a few furlongs or 30 seconds in the Breeders Cup(watch the replay-didnt happen)


Let's say it didnt happen. You have said that several times.

Why would she have gone from 8-5 to 12-1 in running then? Why? No one can seem to answer that.

I have watched thousands of races in running. Goldikova can be in a poor position (like she was a couple of starts ago) and she will move from 4-5 to 9-5. I have seen a closer be 25 lengths back who is 5-2 at closing time go to 3-1 or 4-1 or 6-1 if the fractions are slow. I have seen 1-5 horses go to 4-5 if they are not looking 100% in good shape.

I have never, ever seen an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 who is traveling "comfortably" or "in ok shape". Never. In fact, I have never seen (other than a horse who fell on its face) an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 or over in the first part of a race.

Can you explain it? Can you give me any explanation? If everything was fine why was she 12-1 30 seconds into the race?

[joanied]

I'll probably regret this, but I watched the Classic again, several times, and it's plain to see she was struggling the first part of the race...you can see her head movements, and they tell you she was not comfortable...plus, despite what some might think about Mike Smith, he is a Hall of Famer, and no way was he going to let her drop so far out of it if he could help it...he couldn't do much because she was trying to find her footing...

[cj]

Why would she have gone from 8-5 to 12-1 in running then? Why? No one can seem to answer that.


I can answer it. She was far, far behind. People took that as a big negative, but with that pace it really wasn't.

[cj]

I'll probably regret this, but I watched the Classic again, several times, and it's plain to see she had no early speed as usual...

FTFY.

[Relwob Owner]

Let's say it didnt happen. You have said that several times.

Why would she have gone from 8-5 to 12-1 in running then? Why? No one can seem to answer that.

I have watched thousands of races in running. Goldikova can be in a poor position (like she was a couple of starts ago) and she will move from 4-5 to 9-5. I have seen a closer be 25 lengths back who is 5-2 at closing time go to 3-1 or 4-1 or 6-1 if the fractions are slow. I have seen 1-5 horses go to 4-5 if they are not looking 100% in good shape.

I have never, ever seen an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 who is traveling "comfortably" or "in ok shape". Never. In fact, I have never seen (other than a horse who fell on its face) an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 or over in the first part of a race.

Can you explain it? Can you give me any explanation? If everything was fine why was she 12-1 30 seconds into the race?



Pretty simple-because she was so far back.........I think you mentioned she had issues for 30 seconds(you may have meant 30 seconds in and if so, I apologize)..... Well, looking at the race again any issues at the outset lasted about 5-8 seconds and then she was way, way behind.


Of all of the irrational thoughts I mentioned, this one is probably the most debatable but I still think her "issues" ar way, way overblown. Plus, if they ran again, I think odds are she could easily encounter much more trip trouble or also a slower pace which would even out the "issues" she had in this race

[DeanT]

Pretty simple-because she was so far back.........I think you mentioned she had issues for 30 seconds(you may have meant 30 seconds in and if so, I apologize).....


As I have said: I have seen closers be where they are supposed to be and NEVER go to 12-1. She was where she was supposed to be: Going a quarter in 25 to 26 and change.

It is an odds board and it is the biggest betting system in the world. Decisions are not made on Trevor Denman's expressions or what Matt Carruthers says. Do you know how much money you have to have in your account to risk thousands upon thousands to book at 12-1? Is someone going to place $100k liability up on a horse like Zenyatta because she is "too far back" She is always too far back and anyone with that kind of cash in their account knows that - you knew she was fine where she was positionally, I did, so did anyone with a half a brain. No one in their right mind would put that liability up unless they saw something else.

[Relwob Owner]

Let's say it didnt happen. You have said that several times.

Why would she have gone from 8-5 to 12-1 in running then? Why? No one can seem to answer that.

I have watched thousands of races in running. Goldikova can be in a poor position (like she was a couple of starts ago) and she will move from 4-5 to 9-5. I have seen a closer be 25 lengths back who is 5-2 at closing time go to 3-1 or 4-1 or 6-1 if the fractions are slow. I have seen 1-5 horses go to 4-5 if they are not looking 100% in good shape.

I have never, ever seen an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 who is traveling "comfortably" or "in ok shape". Never. In fact, I have never seen (other than a horse who fell on its face) an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 or over in the first part of a race.

Can you explain it? Can you give me any explanation? If everything was fine why was she 12-1 30 seconds into the race?



I just watched it again and I take back what I wrote....her "issues" didnt even last five seconds....she took about three strides that could be construed as "troubled" so I think 3 seconds is more like it....also, didnt look like Smith was fighting her at all.....

[Saratoga_Mike]

As I have said: I have seen closers be where they are supposed to be and NEVER go to 12-1. She was where she was supposed to be: Going a quarter in 25 to 26 and change.

It is an odds board and it is the biggest betting system in the world. Decisions are not made on Trevor Denman's expressions or what Matt Carruthers says. Do you know how much money you have to have in your account to risk thousands upon thousands to book at 12-1? Is someone going to place $100k liability up on a horse like Zenyatta because she is "too far back" She is always too far back and anyone with that kind of cash in their account knows that - you knew she was fine where she was positionally, I did, so did anyone with a half a brain. No one in their right mind would put that liability up unless they saw something else.

Dean,

I may have missed this (sorry if I did), but what's your theory behind the 12-1?

[DeanT]

Dean,
I may have missed this (sorry if I did), but what's your theory behind the 12-1?

Pretty simple. I know someone that put up $24k liability who said "she was not traveling well" and he thought she had no shot. He was not the only one. All the 12-1 cash was not even filled with people wanting to go long.

I tried to get filled at 20-1. I thought she looked like chit as well, so that was as low as I was going to go. I wasnt scooping up the 8% chance money. No way, no how.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Pretty simple. I know someone that put up $24k liability who said "she was not traveling well" and he thought she had no shot. He was not the only one. All the 12-1 cash was not even filled with people wanting to go long.

I tried to get filled at 20-1. I thought she looked like chit as well, so that was as low as I was going to go. I wasnt scooping up the 8% chance money. No way, no how.

I thought there was something wrong with her for the first 1/8 of a mile in the race, but I thought the same thing last yr! She just doesn't travel that smoothly early in her races. To cite the 12-1, you must believe betting markets are efficient. I don't. People with lots of money and knowledge make mistakes all the time (exhibit A - sellers of equities in March 2009).

[cj]

Pretty simple. I know someone that put up $24k liability who said "she was not traveling well" and he thought she had no shot. He was not the only one. All the 12-1 cash was not even filled with people wanting to go long.

I tried to get filled at 20-1. I thought she looked like chit as well, so that was as low as I was going to go. I wasnt scooping up the 8% chance money. No way, no how.

You keep mentioning people that obviously turned out to be wrong as experts. It doesn't make a lot of sense.

[DeanT]

I thought there was something wrong with her for the first 1/8 of a mile in the race, but I thought the same thing last yr! She just doesn't travel that smoothly early in her races. To cite the 12-1, you must believe betting markets are efficient. I don't. People with lots of money and knowledge make mistakes all the time (exhibit A - sellers of equities in March 2009).

Certainly they are, although over time and in aggregate they are close. (http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/horses_impliedvsactual_odds.jpg)

My point is that lets say tomorrow a horse wins by 15 and is 12-1 and someone posts "that horse was awesome, easy money", many would say (sans flame) "well the odds board disagreed".

All I am saying in this instance is the same. If all was so well, and she was getting such a great trip, the odds board disagreed.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Certainly they are, although over time and in aggregate they are close. (http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/horses_impliedvsactual_odds.jpg)

My point is that lets say tomorrow a horse wins by 15 and is 12-1 and someone posts "that horse was awesome, easy money", many would say (sans flame) "well the odds board disagreed".

All I am saying in this instance is the same. If all was so well, and she was getting such a great trip, the odds board disagreed.

Was she 12-1 early in the race because (a) she was getting a bad trip, or (b) didn't look right? Previously you said the odds were offered because she "wasn't traveling well." I thought that, too. I was wrong. So how does "wasn't traveling well," which was wrong (I was right there with the wrong crowd), translate into a bad trip?

[DeanT]

Was she 12-1 early in the race because (a) she was getting a bad trip, or (b) didn't look right? Previously you said the odds were offered because she "wasn't traveling well." I thought that, too. I was wrong. So how does "wasn't traveling well," which was wrong (I was right there with the wrong crowd), translate into a bad trip?

I don't know, there were many bettors there who were fading. You'd have to ask them. Myself and another thought, like you, she looked like chit.

In hindsight, 12-1 was a hell of a bet. For those here who thought all was peachy, they could have had an excellent value bet - a horse in a good position who is 8-5 on the board, at 12-1. Those dont come around every day. You could have gotten rid of it at around even money late, as well to lock er in.

As an aside, I hope BF goes world wide soon. In running betting is fascinating for lovers of the sport, and for people who like to watch a race within a race. I've been completely hooked on in-running since Street Sense's Derby in 06 or whatever it was.

[joanied]

FTFY.

I'd rather you didn't.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't know, there were many bettors there who were fading. You'd have to ask them. Myself and another thought, like you, she looked like chit.

In hindsight, 12-1 was a hell of a bet. For those here who thought all was peachy, they could have had an excellent value bet - a horse in a good position who is 8-5 on the board, at 12-1. Those dont come around every day. You could have gotten rid of it at around even money late, as well to lock er in.

As an aside, I hope BF goes world wide soon. In running betting is fascinating for lovers of the sport, and for people who like to watch a race within a race. I've been completely hooked on in-running since Street Sense's Derby in 06 or whatever it was.

I see a lot of potential negatives with BF, but it sure seems cool. In all honesty, I don't think I would have bet her 1/8 into the race. But 12-1 sure would have been tempting!

[DeanT]

I see a lot of potential negatives with BF, but it sure seems cool. In all honesty, I don't think I would have bet her 1/8 into the race. But 12-1 sure would have been tempting!
As I noted they are not all like that - 12-1 was an outlier. 8-5 shots dont trade there until late in the race usually (if it looks like they are browning toast).

There were some strange ones in-running though. A lady in the UK bet a horse who fell on his face at 1000-1 once in a steeplechase. He got back up and won the race. She made something like 15 thousand pounds and paid off her mortgage.

Oh, I forgot you asked about last year when you said you had a similar feeling about Z in the Classic. You would not have gotten anywhere near that multiple. She was 5.5 at close and only drifted to about 7.0 when she was last. Or dead last in my best Trevor voice.

Chalk does not drift too much and neither do horses who are running ok. Blame did not drift at all this year, and began going lower as the fractions were in his favor. He was a lot of people's favorite at the half.

[thaskalos]

You keep mentioning people that obviously turned out to be wrong as experts. It doesn't make a lot of sense.
So, since they turned out to be wrong in this case, this disqualifies them from the "expert" category?

Aren't even the "experts" wrong most of the time in our game?

[cj]

So, since they turned out to be wrong in this case, this disqualifies them from the "expert" category?

Aren't even the "experts" wrong most of the time in our game?

Of course not, but it seems a little odd to try to say how smart they were when obviously wrong in this case, that is all. They may have thought something was amiss, but it turned out there was not.

[DeanT]

Of course not, but it seems a little odd to try to say how smart they were when obviously wrong in this case, that is all. They may have thought something was amiss, but it turned out there was not.

People who make six figs in racing per year are wrong all the time. In this case they were, and 75% of the time they are, but when they take a stand you are usually on the ROI positive side of the shedrow, and the opinion can be called educated; or at the very least respected.

I have never once called some sharp bettors here "wrong" that she was fine in this race. I have only pointed out that some other very smart people vehemently disagree with that opinion, and I have used the odds board (in running) as my evidence of such.

[thaskalos]

People who make six figs in racing per year are wrong all the time. In this case they were, and 75% of the time they are, but when they take a stand you are usually on the ROI positive side of the shedrow, and the opinion can be called educated; or at the very least respected.

I have never once called some sharp bettors here "wrong" that she was fine in this race. I have only pointed out that some other very smart people vehemently disagree with that opinion, and I have used the odds board (in running) as my evidence of such.
I like to think that I am a pretty sharp player...and I thought that she had a better chance of being pulled up, than of winning the race - after watching her action out of the gate...and I'm not saying this as an excuse for her losing the race.

After having seen Life At Ten the day before, I really thought that Zenyatta might be pulled up.

[cj]

I like to think that I am a pretty sharp player...and I thought that she had a better chance of being pulled up, than of winning the race - after watching her action out of the gate...and I'm not saying this as an excuse for her losing the race.

After having seen Life At Ten the day before, I really thought that Zenyatta might be pulled up.

I really am not knocking those guys. Hell, I do OK and I'm wrong more than 75% of the time. I still think those that are Z fans are watching and actively looking for an excuse where there isn't one. That is my opinion, and I think I can be very objective since I do this for a living, not an emotional lift.

[thaskalos]

I really am not knocking those guys. Hell, I do OK and I'm wrong more than 75% of the time. I still think those that are Z fans are watching and actively looking for an excuse where there isn't one. That is my opinion, and I think I can be very objective since I do this for a living, not an emotional lift.
I have the utmost respect for your opinion - even when I disagree with it - because I know that you are an intelligent, serious player. No one knows better than I how hard it is to survive - much less profit - when you play this game on an "every day" basis.

I just wish I knew when you are kidding or not. :)

[cj]

I have the utmost respect for your opinion - even when I disagree with it - because I know that you are an intelligent, serious player. No one knows better than I how hard it is to survive - much less profit - when you play this game on an "every day" basis.

I just wish I knew when you are kidding or not. :)

I hate emoticons...but I'm kidding more often than not. ;)

[DeanT]

I like to think that I am a pretty sharp player...and I thought that she had a better chance of being pulled up, than of winning the race - after watching her action out of the gate...and I'm not saying this as an excuse for her losing the race.

After having seen Life At Ten the day before, I really thought that Zenyatta might be pulled up.

Sounds like you might have had her 30-1 fair whereas I was 20-1 at that time. When she caught her rhythm tho and the half flashed up, that 20-1 looked like a bargoon.

On the flipside, (and it shows you can get value anywhere) I was thoroughly convinced at the 3/4's that nothing short of a lightning strike would beat Uncle Mo. At that point he was a very low 3-5. But I thought that was bargain there. (redboard alert!)

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's say it didnt happen. You have said that several times.

Why would she have gone from 8-5 to 12-1 in running then? Why? No one can seem to answer that.

I have watched thousands of races in running. Goldikova can be in a poor position (like she was a couple of starts ago) and she will move from 4-5 to 9-5. I have seen a closer be 25 lengths back who is 5-2 at closing time go to 3-1 or 4-1 or 6-1 if the fractions are slow. I have seen 1-5 horses go to 4-5 if they are not looking 100% in good shape.

I have never, ever seen an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 who is traveling "comfortably" or "in ok shape". Never. In fact, I have never seen (other than a horse who fell on its face) an 8-5 shot go to 12-1 or over in the first part of a race.

Can you explain it? Can you give me any explanation? If everything was fine why was she 12-1 30 seconds into the race?Sounds like perhaps an error of some sort? I mean, this IS Zenyatta we are talking about...her being last...loping along at the beginning...not all that unusual...

These are supposed to be seasoned players at Betfair? 8-5 to 12-1 tells me one of two things. Either the "in running" pools are awfully tiny, or, those participating in the "in running" pools are ripe for the picking.

[PaceAdvantage]

As I have said: I have seen closers be where they are supposed to be and NEVER go to 12-1. She was where she was supposed to be: Going a quarter in 25 to 26 and change.

It is an odds board and it is the biggest betting system in the world. Decisions are not made on Trevor Denman's expressions or what Matt Carruthers says. Do you know how much money you have to have in your account to risk thousands upon thousands to book at 12-1? Is someone going to place $100k liability up on a horse like Zenyatta because she is "too far back" She is always too far back and anyone with that kind of cash in their account knows that - you knew she was fine where she was positionally, I did, so did anyone with a half a brain. No one in their right mind would put that liability up unless they saw something else.Whatever they saw must have been mostly an illusion, because Zenyatta ran her race and almost caused some on Betfair to blow their brains out....figuratively speaking of course...

[DeanT]

Either the "in running" pools are awfully tiny, or, those participating in the "in running" pools are ripe for the picking.

Your latter angle is definitely not right. "Ripe for the picking" and betfair are two things you won't see in the same sentence.

It was a thinner than usual market, however. Some races have $2M bet in running (Longer UK races with a quick feed). Breeders Cup races are usually around $200,000 or so in running.

[Charlie D]

Can you explain it? Can you give me any explanation? If everything was fine why was she 12-1 30 seconds into the race?



Misinterpretation and over reaction.

[dccprez]

Dear Zenyatta;
Please go to your new home and get on with havin' the babies. We don't need any more curtain calls just so Turf Writers can fill column inches or so that the overly emotional can continue to gush.
I know you can't read (well, I'm sure that SOME pepole think that you can!) but if you could I suspect that you'd agree that "the long goodbye" has already played itself out and you'd be well served to just fade into the mist - and a secure place in history - so that the rest of us can get on with our lives.
I'll even send you a housewarming (stable warming?) gift of, oh, say a case of Guiness. Just hurry up and get there and get out of our heads so we can get back to discussing other horses (there are quite a lot of them still running).

Thanking you in advance for helping Forum world get back to reality.

I remain,
EveryOtherHorseInTrainingAndEveryFollowerOfTheSpor tThatIsReadyToMoveOn

[Tom]

Maybe some on this fourm should go breed something. :rolleyes:

1200 showed up at KEE to see here - so I guess the people are still interested.

[rastajenk]

Those 1200 should all be fined for conduct detrimental to the sport of racing. :eek:

At least, according to some of the elitists around here.

[FenceBored]

Maybe some on this fourm should go breed something. :rolleyes:


"Wash your hands when you're done." -Tom

[FenceBored]

Those 1200 should all be fined for conduct detrimental to the sport of racing. :eek:

At least, according to some of the elitists around here.

Oh, and who would those people be? :rolleyes:

[dccprez]

Maybe some on this fourm should go breed something. :rolleyes:

1200 showed up at KEE to see here - so I guess the people are still interested.

"...or so that the overly emotional can continue to gush...."


Alas, alas...

I HATE to be prove right.

Go home Zen. Enjoy your retirement. Have a bunch of stellar babies and let us all enjoy the next 10-15 years of your offspring tearing up the tracks (if they do...and we all HOPE that they do!).

In the meantime we'll be celebrating your excellence on the track - and restoring our sanity.

(Psssst...Hey, Zen....maybe you can take most of the zealots with you?...Just a thought...)

[Tom]

You sound like you are obsessed. :D
Might not be the horse......just saying.

[dccprez]

I AM OBSESSED!!!

ZENYATTA IS THE BEST HORSE EVER EVER EVER!!!!

I will POST and POST and debate and argue and ignore logic as LONG as I HAVE TO to make certain that EVERYONE embraces ALL THINGS ZENYATTA!!!


(...or, maybe not...)

But at least it's a fine distraction.