Handicapping by the Condition Book.

[turninforhome10]

Hello and thanks for reading this thread.
My name is K. Edwin Rollins. I have been hooked on this game since Lure won his first Breeders Cup. Hooked to the point of walking away from a career and pursuing it full time to learn the game from the groundup. I have done everything from catching pee in a test barn to breeding a stakes winner in my first year as consultant two years later. I have worked for one of the truly great Cajun horseman in Glynn (Tee Red) Bernis as he brought me up the ranks from stall mucker to racing manager for 40+ head in three years. I have been handicapping for 16 years and always reled on the traditional methods; reading the form , formulationg pace theories, clocking horses, pedigree analysis, you all have been there. While recently thinking of making a change in careers as I have moved to PA and live twenty minutes from Penn National, my thoughts were towards becomig a Jock Agent. It occured to me during this train of thought that a jock agent is truly one the only people in this business who can paid to handicap without putting out any money at all. Imagine collecting a percentage of the purse without having any money come from your pocket. Good agents make good jocks. Good jocks get better horses. Therefore good agents are finding the best horse to ride. Good agents also are very astute at the process of hustling extras. This is were it gets good. Extras for those of who are unfamilar with racetrack vernacular is a race put on a overnight that is not in the condition book. It is a race that is offered by the racing secretary to help fill his race card. For those of who are watching PARX today notice that 1,2,7,10th races are extras (file is pdf cut and paste in browser)http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONDC-PHA-20101130D
So in these races does it not seem logical that only those trainers with an interest in running now instead of waiting for the next race in the condition would be the live horses to watch. And would it not also make sense that an agent that has a horse that would be live in the race would be very interested in helping the race go. How many times have we seen entries in smaller field races pay big when the horse was seemingly overmatched? If this race was an extra would not a trainer try to fill the race to help make it go on the card. Also be very aware of Agents with multiple jocks that either switch their jocks around or use a horse to fill a race only to scratch later. I used this stategy last year at the Fairgrounds and watched as Donnie Meche got off the favorite to ride a 20-1 first timer as his agents other jock Jose Riquelme rode the favorite. Meche paid 44.00 to win as the favorite(9-5) ran off the board. Meche was 16% rider while Jose was 8%.


Now lets understand I am a great handicapper but terible bettor. I am one of those people who will research a horse to the point of knowing his favorite food , but low self confidence and a knack for being greedy by trying to parlay a big score has prevented me from really being a professional handicapper. Now at 42 and becoming tired of my hard work getting me nowhere in my fallback job in medcine(MLT) I am ready to try and really make a living in this game and let my hard work and dedication reward those who deserve it rather than the coworkers who just come in for a check. This game of horse racing is one of the true professions that hard work, attention to detail, and discipline can get you ahead. Hours of studying pedigrees and matings paid off in the fact that I might be one of the only breeding consultants who have bred 5 of 7 horses who all competed in the same stakes race and ran 12346. Hours of studying horses after training hours when the shedrow was quiet, watching for soreness and attitudes, payed off in 13% winners and 50% checks for 113 starters with 95% Iowa breds. Hours of watching 2yo maidens paid off big as I found a nice 30k claimer at Churchill who was purchased privately and went on to win 7 of 12 and made a little over 100k before being claimed at Oaklawn for 20k. This brings me to my point. While stabled at Hoosier Park for a brief six week run to lose a few horses and win a couple races, I had the pleasure to meet Steve Elzsey, who at the time had a new bug boy that after the first time I saw this kid, I knew Elzsey had a goodthing. It did not matter the price of the horse or the form, this kid was moving horse up 5-10 lengths. It capped off for me when cashing a twenty dollar win ticket on a 75-1 shot that was 0-26 before the new Jock. Well, the kid was none other than Rafael Bejarano, probably the best hands in horse racing in my opinion. That was probably one of the best trips I have ever had that was business related. Eating Cajun food with Curly Rocka, learning handicapping from the late Kit Carson (Jock Agent) and cashing tickets on Bejarano. This is where the concept of watching the overnights( list of races used for the days card) first started. Then it was more of the idea of finding races that our horses were eligible for When we had a horse that really needed to run we would get the agent to work to hustle the race, but first we had to get the Racing Secretary to hang up the race. This is done in a number of ways, but always look for the extras for tommorrows card and find races that seem to have funky condions such as money earned for a date, or a oddly written optional claimer. These are the races that are written for horses. When you find these horses and have an angle on the race such as a scratched entry or a suspicious jock switch, they can be quite profitable. Below is the results of following these rules and using only win, place and show pools with a maximum 10 being placed on horses with ; odds greater than even money, no odds higher than 20-1, jockey rides consecutive races, trainer has not changed, jockey is 12% or higher in wins. That said here are the results

Keeneland this year in a very limited pool as most of the races in the book go, I played 18 wagers for 50% winners and ROI of +O.73.
At Belmont this fall meet I followed the same idea and picked 44% winners with a more modest ROI for+0.15 from 22 wagers.
It worked at Saratoga this summer and the curious part was that while picking only 25% winners it still showed a profit of +0.63 ROI from 34 tickets. Churchill Downs Fall Meet 38% winners ROI +0.43 from 29 tickets.
While these number are not staggering, you must remember my previous disclosure regarding my betting habits. My discipline is learning to be patient, and my patience is embracing the restraint.
All in all this process is very tedious but I would like to expand some of the above and get to the point where someone could help me better pace the race and build good tickets. Any input

[Spiderman]

You know that races 1, 2, 7, 10 are extras because of viewing the overnights three-days prior? Do you know when a horse is locked-in to a race?

PARX is not my favorite track to play and rain may hit the surface, this afternoon. However, I will download pps and scan for criteria that you mentioned.

[turninforhome10]

It will probably be sloppy everywhere but ZIA andTUP. The interesting features of the extras today are the first with the 1 and the 7 and in the seventh Trombetta had scratched Fearless Cowboy from a MTH An2x on the 10-24 to run in the 75n4l that he failed as favorite and ITCH scatched twice before winning his n3 last time Alvarado drops Itch for Lake horse MONTROSE AVE who showed good dirt form at Erie. In the tenth NICECHUNKOF CHANGE scrtched from 15n2l on 11-6 for the 10 and was drubbed Prado wrapped up horse. No angles but first race Preciado.

[turninforhome10]

Most tracks allow scratches the day after the overnights comes out or at a time prescribed by the racetrack rules. Having a condition book for each track that you wager would give you the official rules for scratch time or consult horsemans area on Equibase or the tracks offiicial website.
Thanks for reading

[Spiderman]

Awaiting scratches and changes. Yes, the first is interesting; noted that Alvarado is off winning ride on Itch to ride for Lake, though 1-11 jockey/trainer combo.

[turninforhome10]

Either a graitude ride or the horse is real, odds might tell Would like to find agents list for Philly. Can find at Penn National HBPA. Will do that tommorrow.

[Spiderman]

R1 - #7 scratched, factored in pace scenario, leaving #1 in better situation for running. #1 has trainer angle, dropping 1st claim and is 8-5 ml - expected to lower in odds with scratch of #7. I give a knock against horses on inside, coming out of a chute. This would be a non-play race for me. However, the #3, first starter, has an unusually good workout pattern and first-out win stats, top and bottom. Tossing a few on 13 ex box.

[turninforhome10]

Only thing about the 3 is trainer is 0 for 62 when debuting Maiden claimers:mad:
Something to think about

[Spiderman]

Either a graitude ride or the horse is real, odds might tell Would like to find agents list for Philly. Can find at Penn National HBPA. Will do that tommorrow.

I've downloaded AQ Condition Book, Dec 1-31. Need to locatae scratch rules and agent list for NYRA.

[Spiderman]

Only thing about the 3 is trainer is 0 for 62 when debuting Maiden claimers:mad:
Something to think about
I use bris ultimate and have that stat. Six workouts, spaced exactly seven days apart. If rain arrives by R1, #3 will be a factor, from Carson City mare. Will be a price. Looking for 13 ex to pay $20+ and 31 $35+

Betting only for interest, not betting the #1 on win end, at very low odds is part of discliplined approach.

[turninforhome10]

Notice the disparity in the place pools for the 1

[Spiderman]

Its a 'bridge-jumper' race. If #1 fails to show, show prices will light-up the board.

[turninforhome10]

Nailed the 1-8 maybe a little score

[Spiderman]

Had net loss of $4.50. Bet the 13 ex bx and #3 for show.

[turninforhome10]

0 for 62 is a pretty strong statistic compared to the 5-1 you were getting. The 5 in the second was scratched from 15n2l on 11-21-10 for this spot 3-1 is pretty generous considering connections. Jockey is only part I don't like
taking late money Consider.

[Spiderman]

R7 - viewed replay of Fearless Cowboy. Strange to drop-back like that and did not make a serious move, though wide at stretch turn, others finished better. Was in for 7.5k, while dropping from 32K; last three are horrors and has had 8 different jocks in eight successive races. Pass on that one.

[turninforhome10]

The 5 is not a good claim for Aristone. Notice the horse did not switch leads down the lane. Trombetta was happy to get rid of him
Thought the 3 was false favorite 12$ double was not bad. :p

[mountainman]

Good agents also are very astute at the process of hustling extras. If this race was an extra would not a trainer try to fill the race to help make it go on the card. Also be very aware of Agents with multiple jocks that either switch their jocks around or use a horse to fill a race only to scratch later.

Lots of extras are book races that failed to fill and have been brought back. Thus unscrupulous agents and trainers have ample time to solicit phony entries. It's an insidious practice that's easy to spot, but impossible to prove. I once went so far as to label it a form of race fixing when asked to testify at a commision hearing. Even so, I don't strongly object in such cases as long as the obvious "filler" shows up and honors the commitment to run. Many don't, however, and that results in short fields. Other than cutting stalls (a form of retaliation out of play if the offending trainer isn't stabled on the grounds), a racing secretary's only defense is to kill suspicious races before they fill. Charlestown is the only track I'm aware of that seeks to proactively combat this problem. They've either proposed or (by now) instituted some penalty system aimed at trainers who scratch repeatedly. It's cumbersome, and problematic in ways I won't go into here, but it's original and well intended.

[Spiderman]

The 5 is not a good claim for Aristone. Notice the horse did not switch leads down the lane. Trombetta was happy to get rid of him
Thought the 3 was false favorite 12$ double was not bad. :p

Passed the race. Did have 3 and 4 as likely to win.

The aforementioned, Fearless Cowboy, is for sale, moreso, than a win attempt. In same race, Lake is not miracle worker that he once was; horse has never tested dirt. Toss.

Itch is a mystery, trainer has knack for repeat wins. Jockey switch is fair exchange.

Contender list for R7: 3, 4, 8, 11, 12. Watch board and post paddock/post parade for signs.

[BIG HIT]

So frist thing you do is look at over night race with odd condition like mdn claming opn to 5yr old would be odd i would say?Then a situation like top jky or trainer or both on a horse who may have better chance than look right.?
The confuseing for me is really understanding extras and how they look in book thanks for info though

[turninforhome10]

Extras appear on an overnight which you may find also at equibase in the Horsemans Area. Overnight are a Declaration by the Secretary of Racing that this is the official card for that days racing. There are 3 types of races carded on the overnight. Condition Race (C#) is a race that filled that was from the book. Condition Substitute (CS1) also in the book but would be less preferred and Extras. Extras are races that can only be found on the overnight. They are often races that drew entries on the previous date date but came just short of being used by field size. They are also races that are written for a type of horse that meets certain conditions that may not be found in the condition book such as money or wins for date allowances, non winners of a distance, an unusually priced claimer or optional claimer or non winners on surface. The key with these races is to find small fields, entries or multiple jock mounts. Then find the horse that best suits the odd conditions and then do your regular handicapping.
By using the condition book as your guide you can figure out why the trainer entered the horse.

Keep yourself in good company and your horses in bad:ThmbUp:

[BIG HIT]

Thanks for quick response very helpful and a lot clear for me.Thanks for your time trouble and shareing

[Jackal]

Many top trainers allow jockey agents to find races for their horses. Most jockey agents virtually have the condition book memorized. They are in the stewards office when entries are being made. Agents know before anyone which substitute races are going to fill. Quite often an agent can scratch a horse from a race that won't go to enter a slightly softer substitute race that will fill.

[tundral]

:) ....

[turninforhome10]

Aqueduct THURSDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2010

2nd Race. (CS3) Approx Post 12:56PM MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000-$18,000

Purse $20,000 Six Furlongs (Inner Dirt) For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward.

1 A Tripp Royale(L) Dk B/ Br.f.3 **114 Pedroza, B Roy E. Cawley, Jr. Contessa, Gary

2 Persephone(L) Ch.f.3 119 Dominguez, R Kharag Stables Shivmangal, Doodnauth

3 Deflate the Bubble(L) Ch.f.3 121 Alvarado, J Klaravich Stables Violette, Jr., Richard

4 Shalaka(L) Ch.f.3 121 Luzzi, M Clifton, Jr., W Bond, H.

5 Ride With the Herd(L) Dk B/ Br.f.4 122 Garcia, A Violette, Jr., R Violette, Jr., Richard Two solid works for this

6 Mama Dukes(L) B.f.3 119 Santiago, V Pecoraro, J Tannuzzo, Michael

7 Persky's Love(L) Ch.f.4 **113 Amaro, C Fernandez, J Ortiz, Juan


8th Race. (CX1) Approx Post 3:44PM NY-BRED ALLOWANCE

Purse $43,000 One Mile (Inner Dirt)

For Three Year Olds and Upward NY-Bred Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter or Which Have Never Won

Two Races.

1 Whateverittakes(L) Gr/ro.g.3 122 Velasquez, C Mitre Box Stable Schosberg, Richard 27Nov Bel tr.t 4f ft :48© B 15/75 :ThmbUp:

2 Gold Close to Home(L) Ch.g.6 121 Rivera, H Schultz, P Morrison, John

3 Backcountry Boy(L) B.g.3 120 Valdivia, Jr., J Broman Sr., C. & M. Hernandez, Ramon

4 Goodbyeandgoodluck(L) Dk B/ Br.g.4 121 Solis, A Team Millennium Stable Hertler, John 27Nov Bel tr.t 4f ft :48© B 15/75 :ThmbUp:

5 Crescent's Mon(L) Gr/ro.c.3 120 Cohen, D Rodliff, P.A. Brown, Bruce

6 Shotgun Bandit(L) Dk B/ Br.g.3 **113 Amaro, C Young, R Young, Robert Blk-On

7 Smooth Transition(L) B.g.3 **113 Rodriguez, J. Flying Zee Stables Martin, Carlos

8 Raffinator(L) Ch.c.3 122 Garcia, A WellSpring Stables Ryerson, James

9 Afleet Magic(L) B.g.4 121 Luzzi, M Palombini, C Quartarolo, Anthony

　

　

CALDER RACE COURSE / TROPICAL PARK THURSDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2010

6th RACE. (CX2) Post 2:40PM STARTER ALLOWANCE

PURSE $14,000 (Includes $1,000 FOA) 1 Mile

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN 2009-2010.

1 BLACK TIE SPIRIT (L) R11 Kaplan, W Cruz, M 120

2 DANCE FLOOR MANIAC (L) R10 Vitali, M Bocachica, O 120

3 ENGINERY (L) R13 Iadisernia, G Delgado, JN *115

4 DECAF AGAIN (L) R13 Rose, B Lopez, P 120

5 OFFICER'SGENTLEMAN (L) R11 Behrens, R Maragh, A 120

6a NATHAN RIDGE (L) R13 Fawkes, D Coa, E 120 :ThmbUp:

7 LABERINTO (URU) (L) R20 Azpurua, M Panici, L 123

8 TWISTED DREAM (L) R13 Passley, M Centeno, D 120

9a FERENTZ (L) E27 Dibona, B Garcia, L *115

a -- Fawkes Racing, Inc. and Elacqua, James; Elacqua, James

7th RACE. (CX1) Post 3:07PM OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $25,000

PURSE $29,000 (Includes $3,000 FOA) 6 Furlongs

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

1 TRUELYONBROADWAY (L) $25,000 S13 Sano, A Centeno, D 120:)

2 BLACK GABRIEL (L) R8 Sano, A Saez, L 120

3 PEACE AT DAWN (L) 0 Wolfson, MW Lopez, P 117

4 STEPPIN HONOR (L) 0 Jeffries, R Galviz, W 117

5 AIRCRAFT INTERCEPT (L) R5 Poulos, L Nunez, E 120

6 UWANNAPIECEOFTHIS (L) E21 Pletcher, T Coa, E 120

7 BLACK DIAMOND CAT (L) S1 Bates, L Leyva, J 117

　

FAIR GROUNDS THURSDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2010

1st Race. (CX1) Post 12:40PM MAIDEN

Purse $45,000 (Includes $8,000 from ALBSS)(Includes $5,000 from Slot Revenue) About 1 1/16 Miles(Turf)(Rail at 10 Feet)

For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three, Four, and Five Years Old.

1 CINDY'S JOY (B) Carroll, J Graham, J 121

2 DE DANANN (B) 0 Patton, C Agilar, T 123

3 DANDYNA (B) E1 Howard, N Hernandez, Jr., B 121

4 HARROW HILL (B) 0 Glenney, J Velazquez, D *116

5 PURE GOLDEN HONEY (B) Loetscher, C LeJeune, Jr., S 121

6 ADITSAN (B) 0 Pessin, N Theriot, J 121:)

7 SNOW KISSED (B) Hendrickson, L Sellers, S 121

4th Race. (CX4) Post 2:06PM 8 MAIDEN CLAIMING

$15,000-$10,000

Purse $18,000 (Includes $3,000 from ALBSS)(Includes $5,000 from Slot Revenue) 1 Mile 70 Yards

For Maidens, Two Years Old.

1 HANG LOOSE (B) $15,000 0 Margolis, S Hernandez, Jr., B 120

2 WOODEND'S MAN (B) $15,000 0 Hodges, J Eramia, R 117

3 PORTO BERMUDA (B) $15,000 0 Ducoing, S Napravnik, A 117

4 LEESBORO (B) $15,000 0 Ishaq, S Martin, Jr., E 117

5 BUCKY (B) $12,000 Castillo, G Clark, K 117

6 TRUETT'S REBEL (B) $15,000 0 Leggio, Jr., A Camejo, J 117

7 PROPANE (B) $15,000 0 Broussard, J Graham, J 120

8 ARC LIGHT NORTH (B1) $15,000 Demouchet, R Agilar, T 120

LAUREL PARK THURSDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2010

4th RACE. (CX3) Post 2:00PM CLAIMING $16,000-$14,000 PURSE $20,000 6 Furlongs

FOR TWO YEAR OLDS.

1 HERE FOR THE MUSIC (M) (LA) $14,000 R316 Hendriks, R Boyce, F *111

2a ORAKPO (LA) $14,000 R316 Salzman, T Hohlbein, K ***104

3 HALAVAH (LA) $16,000 Lezell, D Garcia, G 120

4 GOLDEN BISCUIT (M) (LA) $16,000 R301 Keefe, T Garcia, L 118

5a D D'S BUDDY (M) (LA) $16,000 Salzman, T Hohlbein, K ***110

6b DADDYS CADDY (LA) $14,000 R302 Salzman, Jr., J Vega, H 114

7 KEY TO A CURE (LA) $16,000 R316 Capuano, D Rodriguez, Eric 120

8b BEACH HARBER MAN (LA) $14,000 R266 Salzman, Jr., J Hohlbein, K ***104

a -- Taylor, Kenneth, et al; Salzman, Sr., John

b -- Salzman, Jr., John E., Divver, Danny and

　

　

PENN NATIONAL THURSDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2010

7th Race. (CX5) Post 8:59PM 10-2AE CLAIMING $8,000-$7,000 Purse $20,000 (PLUS UP TO 40% PA BRED BONUS) 6 Furlongs

For Three Year Olds and Upward.

1a MISSILE MOTOR(B) (L) $8,000 Jacobson, D Otero, W 116

2a BRILLIANT SON(B) (L) $8,000 Jacobson, D Otero, W 116

3b MACHISMO(M) (L) $8,000 E296 Webb, S Belmonte, L 116

4 BOCCE BALL(N) (L) $8,000 E316 Madrigal, Sr., R Madrigal, Jr., R 116

5 RYAN'S GOLD(B) (L) $8,000 R310 Tracy, J Diaz, V 116

6 PROBATION READY(BO) (L) $8,000 E301 Crumley, J Otero, W 116

7 RAPID REDUX(B) (L) $8,000 R322 Wells, D Cora, D 116

8 SIR GALAHAD(M) (L) $8,000 R322 Conner, J Quinones, A 116

9 SCORPIAN'S RUCKUS(B) (L) $8,000 R288 Tracy, J Farley, J 116

10bPAPALEO(M) (L) $8,000 R295 Webb, S Belmonte, L 116

a -- Bruce Golden Racing

b -- Webb, Samuel E. and Houle, Pete; Webb, Sam and Yeagley, III, William

　

　

　

　

　

[OverlayHunter]

Very interesting premise, Turnin'. Thanks for sharing.

That said, I'm confused (what's new?). I don't understand the significance of the various names you've highlighted in a variety of colors nor do I understand the meaning of the various colors. Additionally, I don't see the significance of these particular races in that there does not appear to be any of the unusual conditions you've alerted us to that might benefit one or more particular horses.

Sorry to be so dense but if you have a moment to clarify, I'm assuming others will benefit as well.

[turninforhome10]

Think about it this way.Pretend you are the trainer of said horse lets say an older horse that youclaimed for a certain price. You have laid them up or fixed whatever problem the horse had and now you find that instead of a cheap 12k claiming sprinter with blinkers and front wraps that you have a 12k starter horse that can run long. A couple of days befor the overnight comes out he works 58 and change and tells you he is ready, you are a high % trainer with 50 head of horses on the grounds and you need to find a race for the horse. What do you do. Wait three weeks for the next race in the book while the horse sits on tilt or do you get a jock agent to hustle a race for you. What I am trying to say by thinking like a trainer and jock agent you can figure out if the horse is real or running for practice. Why would you as the high profile trainer enter the horse(s) unless you had a shot enen if the form is off. This is especially true when you have two jocks from the same agent in a small field.
While the information provided above is just that information, no picks they are merely races that high percentage trainers have entered and these races I feel can be more easily handicapped knowing that the race had some help to get on the card. Please read the first post in this thread for ROI on this theory it has done well. You still have to handicap and this is no magic bullet, it had just helped me find key races to use to build tickets.
What I implore everyone to do is start thinking like a trainer. I have a fantasy stable and the 75 horses, and 15 trainers I follow are just like my fantasy team. By following the condition book and the extras, I can get more of feel if the horse is running to win or just running. For instance, I have a NY bred who is eligible to run for NW2l conditions. His last was a clunker and he needs to go long. There are 2 races in the book 3 days apart; a 15k N2 open going 1 1\16th or N2 Allowance NY bred going 1 1/8th. The decision that I make give a good indication of what I think of the horse and his chances to win. By referencing the condiition book I can decide if in my opinion the trainer has made the right choice.

The color coding is meaningless other than to highlight information.
Thanks for reading

Thank you to T. Thorton at Hawthorne yesterday in the 4th at HAW
40-1 will help at Christmas

[horses4courses]

Thanks for posting this.
It makes interesting reading, and a lot of sense, too.

Mastering the conditions scenario in US racing is crucial to understanding the game here. As I cut my teeth on European racing many moons ago, it's been a transition coming to grips with the nuances over here - and it's been fun.

I am sure this will aid many readers on PA, including myself, and I wish you luck in your future endeavors.
We just might hear of you soon booking mounts for jockeys!

All the best!

[turninforhome10]

Would it not be cool to have the software the racing secretary uses or develop something similar. I have always felt that if one could keep track of the horses that are availabe for the race and finding the ones that follow logical progression of entry into said race could allow for elimation of horses just by defined criteria. Imagine if you followed every circuit like this.
Lets say you are a trainer and you have a 15kN2L horse (a solid 15k) the horse is sitting on a win. How are you going to use that condition? This would depend greatly on the competition.
If I am stabeled in NY, I could wait for a 15n2l and hope there are no dropping bears as is often the case at AQU in the winter,
I could shop at PARX for a soft N1X ALW as N1XL horses at Parx can be scarce this time of year (high profile trainers are doing the same) and see how the race draws,
or I could try and steal a race by entering at a lower price and getting eligble for cheaper starters. Any decisions are going to be based on economics, the size of my stable and the ability to ship. If I ship is my horse my horse good enough to get my high % jock to come with me to ensure the best ride(based on purse)? If stay and run in town will the race have enough horses to fill it for the card.
What races that are available to me at the time and their purse structure will greatly influence where I try to run my horse. I enter my horse based on the economics of the backstretch.
As far as I am concerned personally there are four kinds of entries
1 I think I can win this condition
2 I think I can be competetive at this condition without hurting the horse
3 I think I have no idea where the horse fits after a win, so try it out
4 I think my horse needs the start but fits at this condition


By figuring rider preference and understanding the economics of the entry, I get a better idea of who is running to win. I really have begun to look at it like this. Jockeys have to ride to get paid. Agents have to have their jockeys ride in order to get paid.

Sorry to cut his short but I have to get work on AQU card
Thanks for reading

[turninforhome10]

In a world where people live anonymously behind avatars and screen names over the course of the last year,I have had input to this forum. Some good, some bad. I am the worst at trying to take mind speak and put it into a legible sentence. That being said, I will try to conquer my ADD and focus on being a solid contributor to a place where fortunes could be made by anybody reading this thread. No, this is not an advertisement. This is a gut check for those of us who feel that we are less of a whale because we can't drop 100 on a race and feel guilty about loosing any money. We need to feel confident that our way of making a living is both legit and honest.
I have been fighting the idea that gambling is contrary to being a Christian. This has caused me great turmoil But after having a few beers after not drinking for 3 yrs. I have to come to this realization.What we are doing is both legit and honest
Why? We have to treat with the same respect that we would treat any job. I don't know how many times I have found the top 4 in a race and felt that is good enough, I don't have to watch the replays. It is that extra step that takes us from being average to being great. This is the where our discipline comes into focus. This is also where we can consolidate our Christian ideals
Hebrews 12:11
11 No discipline seems pleasant at the time, but painful. Later on, however, it produces a harvest of righteousness and peace for those who have been trained by it.
Now I am not a bible thumper by any means,but his is inspiration.
As I am now finished with the first of my "sermons". I will get to the point.
What I am trying to find a weak spot in a racing card. A race that is gonna go of a because of a trainer and jock agent. Races that are written for a horse. I know that a lot of you will now try to explain to me about extras and all that jazz. Don't bother. I learned from the best. My mentor and teacher was the man and I would turn over the best of any horses to him knowing that he works from his conscience rather than ego. EGO. that is a key word. I will save this for later.
Tonight I will focus on TP, and RP

Turfway 0922

3rd RACE. (CX10) Post 6:28PM Claiming $5,000
PURSE $8,000 6 Furlongs
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2011.
1 ROYAL INTEGRITY (LA) '05 G $5,000 119 McKee, J Martin, D Martin, D
2 CHILLINESS (LA) '06 G $5,000 R4 119 Tamburello, A Williamson, J Williamson, J
3 LIL BRIAN TOO (LA) '03 G $5,000 *114 Morales, R Lawson, C Lawson, C
4 SINGALONGWITH BERT (LA) '03 G $5,000 E6 119 Rojas, R Ellis, A Baird, R
5 BILL HARV RIB (L) '05 G $5,000 R4 119 Lagunes, G Krummen, M Krummen, M
6 MASTER LOEN (L) '03 G $5,000 119 Yaranga, Y Vaught, M Vaught, M
7 JUST DAZZLING (L) '03 G $5,000 E0 119 Ouzts, P Bush, G Bush, G
8 GREELEY'S GOLD (L) '03 G $5,000 E0 **112 Contreras, A Donovan, H Davis,

6th RACE. (CX11) Post 7:55PM Claiming $16,000-$14,000
PURSE $12,000 1 Mile
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
1 CANYON COPPER (L) '07 G $16,000 E0 119 Sarvis, D Lextra Racing Riley, B
2 BAIL US OUT (L) '08 G $16,000 E0 116 Ouzts, P Riley, B Riley, B
3 SOL A PINO (LA) '05 G $16,000 E0 119 Lopez, J Stone Lea Stables Drury, Jr., T
4 CRESTED (GB) (LA) '03 G $14,000 E5 115 McKee, J Margolis, G., Smole, K. and Conway, T. Dollase, W
5 MCBURNS (L) '06 G $14,000 E6 115 Adam, M Schrage, J Bush, G
6 STARTINGOLD (L) '07 C $16,000 119 Lebron, V Cheesman, Skip and Forguites, Norman Martinez, R
7 MAX THE KNIFE (LA) '07 C $14,000 115 Kuntzweiler, G Cooney, M Hendrickson,

Remington Park 0922
3rd Race. (CX4) Post 7:26PM OKLAHOMA MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000
Purse $21,438 (Includes $3,938 From The Oklahoma Bred Program) 5 1/2 Furlongs
For Oklahoma Bred Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old.
1 WILD TOY LAKE (L) $25,000 R9 Teel, M Quinonez, B 119
2 IMMA BEE SEXY (L) $25,000 R15 Petalino, J McNeil, B 119
3 PEEKER (L1) $25,000 0 Smith, K Laviolette, S 119
4 OK GEE OKIE MO (L) $25,000 R15 Salisbury, J Teator, P 119
5 AHSOBURBANK (L1) $25,000 0 Caster, B Cunningham, T 119
6 JILLY'S MAJESTIC (L1) $25,000 0 Pruitt, J Keever, S *114
7 DAY TO DAY LOVE (L) $25,000 R14 Smith, K Murphy, G 119
8 FANCYDONTLETMEDOWN (L) $25,000 R9 Nolen, K Berry, M 119
9 FANCY WINE (L1) $25,000 0 Craddock, K Birzer, A 119
10 PANHANDLE PRINCESS (L1) $25,000 0 Engel, R Velazquez, B *11


7th Race. (CX3) Post 9:18PM CLAIMING $15,000-$10,000
Purse $17,500 (Plus $3,938 From The Oklahoma Bred Program If Eligible) 5 Furlongs
For Three Year Olds and Upward.
1 TEMPO FIVE (L) $15,000 R14 Caldwell, T Quinonez, B 119
2 EBBTIDE (L) $15,000 E8 Broberg, K Hamilton, Q 119
3 NICE LOOKIN (L) $15,000 E14 Broberg, K Wade, L 116
4 EXTREME WARRIOR (L) $10,000 R9 Box, A Chapa, R 115
5 OKLAHOMA TRAVELER (L) $15,000 0 Clark, R Cunningham, T 116
6 WHOLELOTATRICKS (L) $15,000 R12 Sneed, T McNeil, B 119
7 HENSHIN HERO (L) $15,000 E13 Calhoun, W Berry, M 119
8 BIG CAL (L) $15,000 E17 Biehler, M Butler, D 123
9 ACE AND JIM (L) $10,000 R11 Villafranco, F Medina, J 11


So what I am going to try to do? I am going to try and find races where there is a hole. A race that looks to be for someone. I have preached so many times that jock agents are the best handicappers. The guys that are directly paid for being right. A pen and a condition book can send you on a trip for twenty years or more. When we handicap a race we handicap the race. An agent handicaps the condition. Finding a spot for the horse that fits class price and condition eligibility is not easy and getting an extra to go with limited horses is a coupe to be paid attention to. Some agents have the knack for putting it all together. I personally learned from the late great Kit Carson, T-Red Bernis, Steve Elezey, Fred Washburn, and have followed Doc Danner, and Ron Anderson. Putting a race card together is an art form in the right hands. Having a jock that is spot for the right track offered is also an art form. Having an off pace rider at Monmouth does you no good. Having a jock a Fairplex that can't ride a rail does you no good. A good agent know where to spot their rider.
That being said I will break down tonights card
3rd Race TP flyer; 10show :1:

[turninforhome10]

Mckee's agent is sharp from what Ive seen in the way he spots the kid. Who is the agent, and did ya see the odds drop?

[098poi]

The beginning of the end.
In a world where people live anonymously behind avatars and screen names over the course of the last year,I have had input to this forum. Some good, some bad. I am the worst at trying to take mind speak and put it into a legible sentence. That being said, I will try to conquer my ADD and focus on being a solid contributor to a place where fortunes could be made by anybody reading this thread. No, this is not an advertisement. This is a gut check for those of us who feel that we are less of a whale because we can't drop 100 on a race and feel guilty about loosing any money. We need to feel confident that our way of making a living is both legit and honest.
I have been fighting the idea that gambling is contrary to being a Christian. This has caused me great turmoil But after having a few beers after not drinking for 3 yrs. I have to come to this realization.What we are doing is both legit and honest
Why? We have to treat with the same respect that we would treat any job. I don't know how many times I have found the top 4 in a race and felt that is good enough, I don't have to watch the replays. It is that extra step that takes us from being average to being great. This is the where our discipline comes into focus. This is also where we can consolidate our Christian ideals
Hebrews 12:11
11 No discipline seems pleasant at the time, but painful. Later on, however, it produces a harvest of righteousness and peace for those who have been trained by it.
Now I am not a bible thumper by any means,but his is inspiration.
As I am now finished with the first of my "sermons". I will get to the point.
What I am trying to find a weak spot in a racing card. A race that is gonna go of a because of a trainer and jock agent. Races that are written for a horse. I know that a lot of you will now try to explain to me about extras and all that jazz. Don't bother. I learned from the best. My mentor and teacher was the man and I would turn over the best of any horses to him knowing that he works from his conscience rather than ego. EGO. that is a key word. I will save this for later.
Tonight I will focus on TP, and RP



I imagine there was a reason you haven't had a beer for three years so I would be careful of realizations resulting from one. I wish you the best.

[turninforhome10]

I will now sit on my hands until TP 6th after making 50% on my money for an agent play. Looking at TP 6th the race looks to be for Greta and the :7:
This is the lowest the horse has run for and the last was workout. Shows bullet(works; believe half of what ya see on all accounts) and gets award for best spotting of a 9-1 shot. Next 16-14k is next week and next ALOW is N3X. Logical fit and playable horse.
On to Remington. I ran horses in Iowa at Prairie Meadows so I know some of the jocks and trainers and will try to find some insight to share.

[turninforhome10]

The beginning of the end.
In a world where people live anonymously behind avatars and screen names over the course of the last year,I have had input to this forum. Some good, some bad. I am the worst at trying to take mind speak and put it into a legible sentence. That being said, I will try to conquer my ADD and focus on being a solid contributor to a place where fortunes could be made by anybody reading this thread. No, this is not an advertisement. This is a gut check for those of us who feel that we are less of a whale because we can't drop 100 on a race and feel guilty about loosing any money. We need to feel confident that our way of making a living is both legit and honest.
I have been fighting the idea that gambling is contrary to being a Christian. This has caused me great turmoil But after having a few beers after not drinking for 3 yrs. I have to come to this realization.What we are doing is both legit and honest
Why? We have to treat with the same respect that we would treat any job. I don't know how many times I have found the top 4 in a race and felt that is good enough, I don't have to watch the replays. It is that extra step that takes us from being average to being great. This is the where our discipline comes into focus. This is also where we can consolidate our Christian ideals
Hebrews 12:11
11 No discipline seems pleasant at the time, but painful. Later on, however, it produces a harvest of righteousness and peace for those who have been trained by it.
Now I am not a bible thumper by any means,but his is inspiration.
As I am now finished with the first of my "sermons". I will get to the point.
What I am trying to find a weak spot in a racing card. A race that is gonna go of a because of a trainer and jock agent. Races that are written for a horse. I know that a lot of you will now try to explain to me about extras and all that jazz. Don't bother. I learned from the best. My mentor and teacher was the man and I would turn over the best of any horses to him knowing that he works from his conscience rather than ego. EGO. that is a key word. I will save this for later.
Tonight I will focus on TP, and RP



I imagine there was a reason you haven't had a beer for three years so I would be careful of realizations resulting from one. I wish you the best.
Thanks for the concern, already enjoying cup of coffee after a meal. Just had one of those days that l found a little control. Just enough to get outside of the guilt that comes with being Catholic. One of those "get busy living or get busy dying" kind of days. It has been a year since I have taken on one of the hardest jobs as MLT at Hershey Med in Hershey PA. And today, I got a raise and am now the go to guy for getting extra days for overtime. I have been down the road of fooling myself before, and doing the wrong thing is just way to costly anymore. Just have not drank in so long cause of problems with gall bladder and eating better has allowed for comfortable beer consumption.

Revelations not to be made while drinking
Never and I repeat never decide to ask a lady cop that has pulled you over for DUI when yous are underage if she is angry because "she has not gotten any", well you know the rest. Bad Plan and pickin out gravel sucks.

[pondman]

Keeneland this year in a very limited pool as most of the races in the book go, I played 18 wagers for 50% winners and ROI of +O.73.
At Belmont this fall meet I followed the same idea and picked 44% winners with a more modest ROI for+0.15 from 22 wagers.
It worked at Saratoga this summer and the curious part was that while picking only 25% winners it still showed a profit of +0.63 ROI from 34 tickets. Churchill Downs Fall Meet 38% winners ROI +0.43 from 29 tickets.


I've sat many hours in the Kitchens of all 3 track in S. California, listening, and I've come to believed-- people who make a living in the business, generally make terrible gamblers. But I think you might do okay full time.

I like the your idea of finding spots for your money.

The issue I'd have is: I normally have at least 1 horse in a season which pays for all of my bets for a season-- at least one spanked, homerun out of the park were everyone is asking, "You bet $300 on that, and didn't tell me?" One of those bets you load into a paper bag. And therefore any win beyond that is all net profit. These bets are what produce high ROIs. I think you should be able to do that before you drop everything, and go pro.

[turninforhome10]

This is a tough race. When young horses are being offered up for sale this makes the win, sometimes boil down to dollars and sense. Dollars in the what the horse worth, the claiming price that it is in for and Sense in that , is the trainer going to sacrifice the young horse in for a tag to lose the horse or to win the race. I like owner-trainer combination at smaller tracks. When a trainer is vested in the horse, there is less wast in getting tho the appropriate spotting of the horse.
That being said. I like Roger Engel's :10: at 5-1 or less. Roger is a good horseman and that is evidenced by his 36% strike rate. Just not to sure about Jock in this spot as evidenced by 5-1 conditional wager. Horse dials back from 5-fur work to 3 fur blowout for debut. Live horse. Next Maiden 2yo claimer 10/13

[turninforhome10]

I've sat many hours in the Kitchens of all 3 track in S. California, listening, and I've come to believed-- people who make a living in the business, generally make terrible gamblers. But I think you might do okay full time.

I like the your idea of finding spots for your money.

The issue I'd have is: I normally have at least 1 horse in a season which pays for all of my bets for a season-- at least one spanked, homerun out of the park were everyone is asking, "You bet $300 on that, and didn't tell me?" One of those bets you load into a paper bag. And therefore any win beyond that is all net profit. These bets are what produce high ROIs. I think you should be able to do that before you drop everything, and go pro.

Agreed. I call them "get out of town money". For trainers running on circuits, they always save the longshot to use for traveling money, to get out of town. I remember mine. It was Starlight Invader. Trainer would run the horse at Arapahoe and throw in clunkers, but was getting fit with altitude. The trainer would get a gimmick distance race to go and cash in. I hit the horse 3 yrs in a row at 25-1 or greater before anyone caught on.
This is what I am keying on.

[turninforhome10]

Mckee; had the mount and the win Hard to play against 3/2 in a 7 horse field and took money throughout betting. Dollace and 3/2 can't play.

[turninforhome10]

RP 3rd, Notice that Laviolette gives up the :7: for the first time starter :3: . The :10: is still running, good luck with that one Roger.Jock\traner\owner angle 37.40. Watch Dream Walkin Farms to start running their horses for the win. Note to self. Looking at the 7th now.

[Canarsie]

Amazing that the Oaklawn condition book is out already for a meet that starts in January.

I try to download all of them for any track I play. It takes less than 20 minutes to get a bunch of them. Having said that I hardly look at them but at the end of the year I put all of this info on one DVD.

1. Quick Sheets so I can see the ML and other info in a quick fashion from races going far back.

2. Full racing charts so I don't have to go online for reference just need the DVD in the tray.

3. Condition Books

4. Racing calendars

5. Old Triple Crown and BC info that might be useful in future years.

6. PDF articles about an array of stuff (like exchange wagering) that might sharpen my mind.

7. Sheets

8. Plus my favorite to remember the good times growing up. A bunch of old DRF's from the late 60's and 70's. It really was amazing that horses were much sounder then and raced a lot more.

9. Stuff from PA that I cut and paste into word format. The wealth of information here is the best by a wide margin even when I don't agree or understand it.

[turninforhome10]

Since everybody has been talking up Penn National, wondering if anyone from Central PA is going to the races tonight. Might actually get out of my chair and go out.

[turninforhome10]

Upon initial skim, nothing out of the ordinary as far as extras go. Found a race at Laurel that seems interesting. Race 8 Nw1x or N2L or 50k-45k claim is for 2 yo fillies going 51/2 on turf. The Kobiske entry should take all the money as ML is 4/5, short field, big owner. Interesting to note that Pino's horse is eligible for condition but runs for the tag.

[turninforhome10]

Working this weekend, so I will try to find a little something. The 1st at Belmont is intriguing since Jacobsens horse :10: is eligible for N3l and there is a race
NW3 10,000/ 3yo or NW1(DATE) Oct 8th that would fill. Why drop the horse to 7500 open, is he trying to loose him or guarantee the win? All the horses from the last 7500 sprint have scratched? The :5: seems like smart money at 3-1 since he is a multiple winner and Walder is pretty sharp with these. Could run at Monmouth but opts for Bel where he has not run before. and shows 12k in off condtions. 10 W 10P 5

[turninforhome10]

Working this weekend, so I will try to find a little something. The 1st at Belmont is intriguing since Jacobsens horse :10: is eligible for N3l and there is a race
NW3 10,000/ 3yo or NW1(DATE) Oct 8th that would fill. Why drop the horse to 7500 open, is he trying to loose him or guarantee the win? All the horses from the last 7500 sprint have scratched? The :5: seems like smart money at 3-1 since he is a multiple winner and Walder is pretty sharp with these. Could run at Monmouth but opts for Bel where he has not run before. and shows 12k in off condtions. 10 W 10P 5

Jacobsen got the money, that is why he is 38% win. Ran second for a little return and learned a little about Jacobsen.