"Guesstimating" run-up times

[jeebus1083]

I've been tinkering with the idea of trying to figure out the time of a run-up based on FPS information from the measured 1st 1/4 of a race. I have never used the run-up in my handicapping, but am aware that the distance of the run-up can have an impact on how the horse trips the Teletimer.

Using Raybo's beaten lengths multiplier formula, I do the following:

1320 feet (1/4 mile) divided by 9.5 feet (about the length of a horse) = 138.9.
22.22 seconds divided by 138.9 = .159 seconds per length.

Run-up of 80 feet divided by 9.5 feet = 8.4.

.159 seconds x 8.4 = 1.33 seconds to cover the run-up from the gate to the timing beam.

[therussmeister]

I find this a round about way of going about it. This is how I would do it:

1320ft / 22.22 = 59.406 feet per second.

80ft / 59.406 = 1.347 seconds. No need to bring in the length of the horse, since it is not an agreed upon figure.

Now having said all that, either method is inaccurate, because the run-up is from a standing start, but the official first quarter time is not. The only way to accurately include run-up time would be to hand time from the break.

[raybo]

I've been tinkering with the idea of trying to figure out the time of a run-up based on FPS information from the measured 1st 1/4 of a race. I have never used the run-up in my handicapping, but am aware that the distance of the run-up can have an impact on how the horse trips the Teletimer.

Using Raybo's beaten lengths multiplier formula, I do the following:

1320 feet (1/4 mile) divided by 9.5 feet (about the length of a horse) = 138.9.
22.22 seconds divided by 138.9 = .159 seconds per length.

Run-up of 80 feet divided by 9.5 feet = 8.4.

.159 seconds x 8.4 = 1.33 seconds to cover the run-up from the gate to the timing beam.

Now divide 80' by 1.33 seconds and you get 60.15 fps, the average speed for the run-up.

[jeebus1083]

Now divide 80' by 1.33 seconds and you get 60.15 fps, the average speed for the run-up.

Since horses start standing, and are not in full stride, I would think that the lengths multiplier would be slower from the gate to the beam than it would from the beam to the opening 1/4 pole (e.g. .172 seconds per stride length from gate to start beam versus .159 seconds per stride length from the start beam to the 1st 1/4 Teletimer). I would think that it would take some practice (watching film, hand-timing run-ups and knowing the run-up distance) to get an idea of what the multiplier would be, but I think that it could be done.

[raybo]

Since horses start standing, and are not in full stride, I would think that the lengths multiplier would be slower from the gate to the beam than it would from the beam to the opening 1/4 pole (e.g. .172 seconds per stride length from gate to start beam versus .159 seconds per stride length from the start beam to the 1st 1/4 Teletimer). I would think that it would take some practice (watching film, hand-timing run-ups and knowing the run-up distance) to get an idea of what the multiplier would be, but I think that it could be done.

Yes, you're correct of course, however, if you apply the formula you posted to all horses, you won't get correct times, but, you will still be able to compare the times that you calculate, for ranking, or rating, etc., as they will all be calculated in the same way making them "comparable".

[jeebus1083]

Raybo: What is your suggestion?

[raybo]

Raybo: What is your suggestion?

A horse's running time to the 1st call, might or might not be affected, always, by his time to the beam. But, in calculating that run-up time, you would be creating a figure that could "become" indicative of his/her general performance during that segment of races. I think that your method of calculation is adequate as a measure of typical performance in the run-up, after throwing out races where the break from the gate obviously affected the resulting calculation.

You might "store" your calculations, in Excel, and after a period of time you would have an average performance, for run-up performance, for each horse you've processed. You could then recall that average, with the "vlookup" function, for daily play, and use them for comparison between the competitors.