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11-26-2010, 04:24 PM
Freehold Raceway Picks, Saturday, November 27
Race One: #1 Tyler A ships in from Chester after a "comfortable" qualifier. This Albert Albert-bred horse has loads of back-class. He's faced better. If reasonably ready -- he can prevail. What impresses me is that every time Tyler A has had an "inside" post -- at least at Freehold -- he's wins! Underneath: I like #4 Magic Dancer. He'll be gunning for the lead. "The Pandy Man" (Jim Pantaleano) is good at rationing out speed. If he gets away with decent fractions, he may be tough to collar. This horse looks like the key in the exotics; he's hit the board in six of his last seven tries. #2 Devil's Grin steps up a bit; yet, I believe he can handle the class hike. Oh, by the way, Vinnie Ginsburg has been driving very well in recent starts. Then, there's #3 Hop Sing. This horse is class personified. Try almost a million bucks worth of lifetime earnings. Can't be ignored this cheap. He could do it on memory. Finally, I might toss in #7 Southwind Maize to possibly complete a super if one of one of the aforementioned horses slips up.
Race Two: #4 Sand Cruiser with Pat Berry has had some terrible starting posts. He now moves to the #4 slot. Yet, the horse is just 2-for-48 over the last couple years. Hardly a ringing endorsement. If you look back, one of the things in his favor is that he did face tougher competition at Yonkers. That alone -- in this weak field -- should give pause for consideration. Underneath: I like #1 Much Bettor-Merit (I picked him last week, but he finished off the board). I consider him the major danger to my top pick. Also in the mix are: #3 Morgan Starn and #2 Kings Point Grey. #3 Morgan Starn tried the Meadowlands without much luck. He's back in Freehold where he might be able to complete a gimmick. Also, #2 Kings Point Grey, with Harry Landy, has shown little in recent outings. Yet, in all fairness, he did get parked in his last. Going back to the summer, this horse was entered in some tough 3-year-old races. His connections must have thought he merited those tries. His times in those races were decent. Yet, the fact he's been off for more than a couple weeks is concerning . In his case: "It's what have you done for me, lately?" Finally, #5 Patio Court is a Precious Bunny-bred gelding who's faced stiffer competition in the past. He might be able to pick up the pieces in gimmicks.
Race Three: #3 Artic Blue closed like the wind last week only to finish second to Bolder. He now gets the services of "The Orange Crush," Andy Ray Miller. This looks like Artic Blue's day. Underneath: #5 Raider's Match is a hit-the-board kinda horse. He's got his number up on the tote in nine of his last ten tries; yet, only one of those was a win. He certainly merits consideration in all your exotics. #6 Max Will Start fits with this bunch. Will he go for the lead, or will he hang back? I'd like to see this horse go for the lead (I'm assuming...behind Raider's Match) and find a tuck second or third. Also worthy of consideration are: #7 Truly The Man. Driver Mark Lewis is very capable; he could get part. Finally, #8 Real Platinum could surprise from the outside post and pick up the pieces in a gimmick.
Race Four: I'm going with #5 Made For Cruising with Carl Cito. This horse just missed last week to the eventual winner, Willow Run Huck. This time around I believe Made For Cruising can get his picture taken. Underneath, #3 Beliefs In Town is a threat. He now draws inside, and if he gets the trip... In addition, the aforementioned #4 Willow Run Huck will have to be contended with. Jim Pantaleano should have him "on the engine." If he gets away with comfortable fractions.... Also, #1 Big Mystery with Andy Miller can be a factor. He's been campaigning with a degree of success in upstate New York. Finally, #2 Hal's Legacy can't be ignored. He might just mop up an exotic.
Race Five: #4 Southwind Irvin gets an improved starting post. He is moving up in company, but so are many of the others in this race. Jim Pantaleano in the bike's a plus. He should be going frontward at the start. Underneath: #5 WhoLeftTheGateOpen turned in a sizzling time in his last effort at Dover Downs. Anything resembling that effort and he's very much in the thick of things. #1 Crewcut Hanover gets Andy Miller back in the bike. Last week, Miller piloted this horse to victory. You can never overlook the "Orange Crush". #2 Fritzie Rocket returns to Freehold after a couple tries at "The Big M". The horse fits in this company and might, on his best effort, get part of a gimmick. Finally, #8 Medoland Mac has faced better in the past. He might just pick up the pieces in a super.
Race Six: I'm gonna try for some value and take a shot with #2 Layton Seelster. Jeff Dauplaise has a knack of winning races like this. The horse certainly fits in this competition. He's drawn a very good starting post. I believe he'll be no worse than third when they reach the quarter-pole. He may well be able to come on in the stretch. He's certainly faced some stiff competition at Yonkers. Underneath: I see the major danger as the #5 McMelody with Jack Baggitt. He's the logical, here. The horse has won three in a row. Baggitt has the ability to quickly get this horse "on the engine." Yet, he has been off a couple weeks. Will he be a little "short" from his mid-pack starting post? Others worthy of consideration are: #6 Sassy Shark with Andy Miller. He's raced against better at Yonkers. This horse has the speed to make things interesting. Another horse to consider is #7 Marchand. He doesn't have an inside post; yet he's hit the board in five of his last six. Finally, #8 Penn Turbo Ted has hit the board in all his recent tries. He might just surprise and add value to an exotic.
Race Seven: I'm going with #2 Here Comes Hal. He's faced better. He has a good starting post. His driver's on the improve. I believe that spells the winner's circle. Underneath: #3 Albert Street A is the major danger. If he gets loose on the lead with soft fractions (there's not much early speed in the race, save possibly Mafia Hall), he may go gate-to-wire. I believe you've got to use him in exotics. He's won three of his last five starts. #7 Lambretta might just surprise in this race; if he hits the board, he'll add value to an exotic tickets. Worthy of consideration. Also worth a look are: #1 Idealist. He'll benefit from the rail. Can certainly be part of an exotic. He fits in this company. Finally, #4 Mafia Hall turned in a fine effort from the #8 hole last time. The horse now moves inside and may be able to be part of the gimmicks.
Race Eight: After looking at the horses in this race for several minutes, I've decided to go with the best driver in the race, Andy Miller. He drives the #2 Double Your Moves. What concerns me is the fact that this horse hasn't won in a month of Sundays. Yet, he has hit the board in three of his last four starts. He certainly fits and -- as cited -- has the service of the "Orange Crush". I believe -- on his best -- he can win it. Underneath: Didn't #6 Tomahawk Sakra run a heck of race at "The Big M" in his last start. Yes, he did have the rail. And yes, he looks like he got the perfect trip. But, even so...just missing in 1:52.1 in mid-November is to my way of thinking -- a sterling effort. Added to that is the fact that he's run well in his last three races. Still, he's 0-for-32 over the last two years. In addition, I like the #4 Goodbye Gary. This horse may be on the engine. If he can get away with some soft fractions... This horse may add value to your exotics. Then, there's the #5 Limestone Ridge N, an accomplished veteran pacer, with over $200,000 in lifetime earnings. Not too shabby. He did win his last against weaker. He does merit consideration. Finally, there's #3 Heir Man. He has a way of sneaking in and completing a super.
Race Nine: Here's your Longshot Special, the #8 Tough Chip. Tough Chip can be one tough customer. Much will be determined in the first fifteen or twenty seconds of the race. If Jack Baggitt leaves (he's one of the best gate-drivers in the business), the horse immediately becomes a player. Yes, it's a decided disadvantage to be starting from the extreme outside post at Freehold. But...this horse, with smooth handling, can not only overcome that disadvantage -- he can win. If he can get an upfront tuck, or, even better, grab the lead without too much exertion, he can easily be there. Again, the start will determine what this horse does, or does not do. Underneath: I like #6 Fox Valley Sosa. He's won three in a row. He is, to my way of thinking, the major danger. Again, the start for this front-running horse will determine a lot. I also like #2 Stopwatch N with Jim Marshall. He won his last. He's most capable of being right there at the wire. #4 Zepplin Blue Chip has hit the board in his last five. He figures to be part of exotics. Finally, #1 All Star Dragon will benefit from the rail. This horse should not be overlooked.
Race Ten: #1 Bolder is my top pick on today's card. He has been red hot (three in a row). He now faces no better than he beat last week. I think he can make it four straight. I'm most impressed with this horse's quick "brush". He looks like a "push-button" horse. Driver Harry Landy should be able to get the job done. Underneath: #4 Justin Art with Andy Miller had a tough outside starting post last week. This time around, the horse gets both "The Orange Crush" and also a better starting slot. That combination makes him a threat. It's hard to ignore the #5 Oragami Artist with Carl Cito. This horse has won about 40% of his starts this year. That speaks volumes. He should not be overlooked. #8 Whole Lotta Shakin does draw outside; yet, the horse is capable of overcoming that impediment and getting part of an exotic. Finally, #3 Trey fits in this company; he might pick up the pieces in a gimmick.
Race Eleven: I'm gonna look for some value in this most difficult race to handicap. I've decided to go with the rail horse, the #1, Island Zorro. In his last race, the horse was interferred with and finished up the track. Prior to that, he had three-straight #8 starting posts. He's back inside (he had the #1 slot last week), again. This time, with a cleaner trip, he can be a factor in a most difficult race to figure out (there are more sub-plots than an Agatha Christie mystery novel). Underneath: the logical horse is the #2 Camra Loving Shark with Andy Miller. He's got the post. He got the times, He's got the driver. Yet, this horse hasn't won a race this year in sixteen tries. Other horses I'd consider are: #6 Be My Rock Star. Is Daniel Dube coming in to drive just this one horse??? As Artrie Johnson might have said on Rowan & Martin's "Laugh-In," "Verrry Interesting!" Yet, this Life Sign-bred 4-year-old has been off for three weeks. Is he ready? Is Dube really driving (or is he just listed)? The plot thickens. Another horse that caught my eye is the #7 Lil Star Too. This horse has turned in some very good times against much better company. Can he overcome the #7 starting post (the last time he had the #7 -- at Yonkers -- he finished last)? Is Baggitt gonna leave with him? As Shakespeare might have said in MacBeth: "Double, Double Toil and Trouble, he's the master of the Triple-Double; from French Lick to Terre Haute..." Finally, #4 Hunter Hylight with Michael Marx might just pick up the pieces.
Race Twelve: I'm going to take a shot and see if Steve Smith can win with #2 AJ Mcardle. Smitty can sit chilly behind the front-runner and then collar him in the stretch. Underneath; the aforementioned front-runner, #1Tyler's Echo N has been running very well at "Poke-Your-Nose". Yet, the horse seems to have a case of "Bridesmaid-itis". He's only won one race in twenty-four starts this year! That doesn't mean he can't get the job done; he'll certainly be gunning for the lead. He should be on the engine, but... An intriguing horse in this race is the #4 Best Life with Brad Irvine, If a speed duel sets up, this horse will be picking them up and laying them down like Citation in the 1950 Kentucky Derby. This horse is definitely a player if the fractions are speedy up front. #3 Boston Red Sock (sometimes called: "Las Medias Rojas") can be part on his best effort. He threw in a clunker last week, but, prior to that, he finished second in a very good time. Finally, #4 Chris surprised me by taking the opener last week. He beat my choice, Keva Key. He now steps up in company; yet, he still could complete a gimmick in his current good form.
Race Thireteen: Don't let last week's AHDC race fool you. The #2 Ty Baron is capable of a much better time. I would rate him as my top pick in the Freehold finale. Driver Steve Smith is most capable of bringing this horse home for some picture-taking. Further, the horse has faced better company than most of the pacers in this race. Underneath: the #1 Cheyenne Bogart looks like a major danger. The horse had a tough post last time out. He's now drawn the rail. That will help. He should be able to hit the board. #3 Devil's Claw N is a classy vet with about a quarter-of-a-mill in lifetime earnings. On his best, he can be part of an exotic. Also worthy of condsideration is the #7 Alpha Man. Last time out, he was also in one of those AHDC races. On his best, he might be able to close for part. Finally, #8 Bubba McGee is the unknown factor in this race. If Jack Baggitt leaves with this horse, and he can then find a tuck, he may surprise. Much will depend on what Baggitt does with this horse at the start.
Race One: #1 Tyler A ships in from Chester after a "comfortable" qualifier. This Albert Albert-bred horse has loads of back-class. He's faced better. If reasonably ready -- he can prevail. What impresses me is that every time Tyler A has had an "inside" post -- at least at Freehold -- he's wins! Underneath: I like #4 Magic Dancer. He'll be gunning for the lead. "The Pandy Man" (Jim Pantaleano) is good at rationing out speed. If he gets away with decent fractions, he may be tough to collar. This horse looks like the key in the exotics; he's hit the board in six of his last seven tries. #2 Devil's Grin steps up a bit; yet, I believe he can handle the class hike. Oh, by the way, Vinnie Ginsburg has been driving very well in recent starts. Then, there's #3 Hop Sing. This horse is class personified. Try almost a million bucks worth of lifetime earnings. Can't be ignored this cheap. He could do it on memory. Finally, I might toss in #7 Southwind Maize to possibly complete a super if one of one of the aforementioned horses slips up.
Race Two: #4 Sand Cruiser with Pat Berry has had some terrible starting posts. He now moves to the #4 slot. Yet, the horse is just 2-for-48 over the last couple years. Hardly a ringing endorsement. If you look back, one of the things in his favor is that he did face tougher competition at Yonkers. That alone -- in this weak field -- should give pause for consideration. Underneath: I like #1 Much Bettor-Merit (I picked him last week, but he finished off the board). I consider him the major danger to my top pick. Also in the mix are: #3 Morgan Starn and #2 Kings Point Grey. #3 Morgan Starn tried the Meadowlands without much luck. He's back in Freehold where he might be able to complete a gimmick. Also, #2 Kings Point Grey, with Harry Landy, has shown little in recent outings. Yet, in all fairness, he did get parked in his last. Going back to the summer, this horse was entered in some tough 3-year-old races. His connections must have thought he merited those tries. His times in those races were decent. Yet, the fact he's been off for more than a couple weeks is concerning . In his case: "It's what have you done for me, lately?" Finally, #5 Patio Court is a Precious Bunny-bred gelding who's faced stiffer competition in the past. He might be able to pick up the pieces in gimmicks.
Race Three: #3 Artic Blue closed like the wind last week only to finish second to Bolder. He now gets the services of "The Orange Crush," Andy Ray Miller. This looks like Artic Blue's day. Underneath: #5 Raider's Match is a hit-the-board kinda horse. He's got his number up on the tote in nine of his last ten tries; yet, only one of those was a win. He certainly merits consideration in all your exotics. #6 Max Will Start fits with this bunch. Will he go for the lead, or will he hang back? I'd like to see this horse go for the lead (I'm assuming...behind Raider's Match) and find a tuck second or third. Also worthy of consideration are: #7 Truly The Man. Driver Mark Lewis is very capable; he could get part. Finally, #8 Real Platinum could surprise from the outside post and pick up the pieces in a gimmick.
Race Four: I'm going with #5 Made For Cruising with Carl Cito. This horse just missed last week to the eventual winner, Willow Run Huck. This time around I believe Made For Cruising can get his picture taken. Underneath, #3 Beliefs In Town is a threat. He now draws inside, and if he gets the trip... In addition, the aforementioned #4 Willow Run Huck will have to be contended with. Jim Pantaleano should have him "on the engine." If he gets away with comfortable fractions.... Also, #1 Big Mystery with Andy Miller can be a factor. He's been campaigning with a degree of success in upstate New York. Finally, #2 Hal's Legacy can't be ignored. He might just mop up an exotic.
Race Five: #4 Southwind Irvin gets an improved starting post. He is moving up in company, but so are many of the others in this race. Jim Pantaleano in the bike's a plus. He should be going frontward at the start. Underneath: #5 WhoLeftTheGateOpen turned in a sizzling time in his last effort at Dover Downs. Anything resembling that effort and he's very much in the thick of things. #1 Crewcut Hanover gets Andy Miller back in the bike. Last week, Miller piloted this horse to victory. You can never overlook the "Orange Crush". #2 Fritzie Rocket returns to Freehold after a couple tries at "The Big M". The horse fits in this company and might, on his best effort, get part of a gimmick. Finally, #8 Medoland Mac has faced better in the past. He might just pick up the pieces in a super.
Race Six: I'm gonna try for some value and take a shot with #2 Layton Seelster. Jeff Dauplaise has a knack of winning races like this. The horse certainly fits in this competition. He's drawn a very good starting post. I believe he'll be no worse than third when they reach the quarter-pole. He may well be able to come on in the stretch. He's certainly faced some stiff competition at Yonkers. Underneath: I see the major danger as the #5 McMelody with Jack Baggitt. He's the logical, here. The horse has won three in a row. Baggitt has the ability to quickly get this horse "on the engine." Yet, he has been off a couple weeks. Will he be a little "short" from his mid-pack starting post? Others worthy of consideration are: #6 Sassy Shark with Andy Miller. He's raced against better at Yonkers. This horse has the speed to make things interesting. Another horse to consider is #7 Marchand. He doesn't have an inside post; yet he's hit the board in five of his last six. Finally, #8 Penn Turbo Ted has hit the board in all his recent tries. He might just surprise and add value to an exotic.
Race Seven: I'm going with #2 Here Comes Hal. He's faced better. He has a good starting post. His driver's on the improve. I believe that spells the winner's circle. Underneath: #3 Albert Street A is the major danger. If he gets loose on the lead with soft fractions (there's not much early speed in the race, save possibly Mafia Hall), he may go gate-to-wire. I believe you've got to use him in exotics. He's won three of his last five starts. #7 Lambretta might just surprise in this race; if he hits the board, he'll add value to an exotic tickets. Worthy of consideration. Also worth a look are: #1 Idealist. He'll benefit from the rail. Can certainly be part of an exotic. He fits in this company. Finally, #4 Mafia Hall turned in a fine effort from the #8 hole last time. The horse now moves inside and may be able to be part of the gimmicks.
Race Eight: After looking at the horses in this race for several minutes, I've decided to go with the best driver in the race, Andy Miller. He drives the #2 Double Your Moves. What concerns me is the fact that this horse hasn't won in a month of Sundays. Yet, he has hit the board in three of his last four starts. He certainly fits and -- as cited -- has the service of the "Orange Crush". I believe -- on his best -- he can win it. Underneath: Didn't #6 Tomahawk Sakra run a heck of race at "The Big M" in his last start. Yes, he did have the rail. And yes, he looks like he got the perfect trip. But, even so...just missing in 1:52.1 in mid-November is to my way of thinking -- a sterling effort. Added to that is the fact that he's run well in his last three races. Still, he's 0-for-32 over the last two years. In addition, I like the #4 Goodbye Gary. This horse may be on the engine. If he can get away with some soft fractions... This horse may add value to your exotics. Then, there's the #5 Limestone Ridge N, an accomplished veteran pacer, with over $200,000 in lifetime earnings. Not too shabby. He did win his last against weaker. He does merit consideration. Finally, there's #3 Heir Man. He has a way of sneaking in and completing a super.
Race Nine: Here's your Longshot Special, the #8 Tough Chip. Tough Chip can be one tough customer. Much will be determined in the first fifteen or twenty seconds of the race. If Jack Baggitt leaves (he's one of the best gate-drivers in the business), the horse immediately becomes a player. Yes, it's a decided disadvantage to be starting from the extreme outside post at Freehold. But...this horse, with smooth handling, can not only overcome that disadvantage -- he can win. If he can get an upfront tuck, or, even better, grab the lead without too much exertion, he can easily be there. Again, the start will determine what this horse does, or does not do. Underneath: I like #6 Fox Valley Sosa. He's won three in a row. He is, to my way of thinking, the major danger. Again, the start for this front-running horse will determine a lot. I also like #2 Stopwatch N with Jim Marshall. He won his last. He's most capable of being right there at the wire. #4 Zepplin Blue Chip has hit the board in his last five. He figures to be part of exotics. Finally, #1 All Star Dragon will benefit from the rail. This horse should not be overlooked.
Race Ten: #1 Bolder is my top pick on today's card. He has been red hot (three in a row). He now faces no better than he beat last week. I think he can make it four straight. I'm most impressed with this horse's quick "brush". He looks like a "push-button" horse. Driver Harry Landy should be able to get the job done. Underneath: #4 Justin Art with Andy Miller had a tough outside starting post last week. This time around, the horse gets both "The Orange Crush" and also a better starting slot. That combination makes him a threat. It's hard to ignore the #5 Oragami Artist with Carl Cito. This horse has won about 40% of his starts this year. That speaks volumes. He should not be overlooked. #8 Whole Lotta Shakin does draw outside; yet, the horse is capable of overcoming that impediment and getting part of an exotic. Finally, #3 Trey fits in this company; he might pick up the pieces in a gimmick.
Race Eleven: I'm gonna look for some value in this most difficult race to handicap. I've decided to go with the rail horse, the #1, Island Zorro. In his last race, the horse was interferred with and finished up the track. Prior to that, he had three-straight #8 starting posts. He's back inside (he had the #1 slot last week), again. This time, with a cleaner trip, he can be a factor in a most difficult race to figure out (there are more sub-plots than an Agatha Christie mystery novel). Underneath: the logical horse is the #2 Camra Loving Shark with Andy Miller. He's got the post. He got the times, He's got the driver. Yet, this horse hasn't won a race this year in sixteen tries. Other horses I'd consider are: #6 Be My Rock Star. Is Daniel Dube coming in to drive just this one horse??? As Artrie Johnson might have said on Rowan & Martin's "Laugh-In," "Verrry Interesting!" Yet, this Life Sign-bred 4-year-old has been off for three weeks. Is he ready? Is Dube really driving (or is he just listed)? The plot thickens. Another horse that caught my eye is the #7 Lil Star Too. This horse has turned in some very good times against much better company. Can he overcome the #7 starting post (the last time he had the #7 -- at Yonkers -- he finished last)? Is Baggitt gonna leave with him? As Shakespeare might have said in MacBeth: "Double, Double Toil and Trouble, he's the master of the Triple-Double; from French Lick to Terre Haute..." Finally, #4 Hunter Hylight with Michael Marx might just pick up the pieces.
Race Twelve: I'm going to take a shot and see if Steve Smith can win with #2 AJ Mcardle. Smitty can sit chilly behind the front-runner and then collar him in the stretch. Underneath; the aforementioned front-runner, #1Tyler's Echo N has been running very well at "Poke-Your-Nose". Yet, the horse seems to have a case of "Bridesmaid-itis". He's only won one race in twenty-four starts this year! That doesn't mean he can't get the job done; he'll certainly be gunning for the lead. He should be on the engine, but... An intriguing horse in this race is the #4 Best Life with Brad Irvine, If a speed duel sets up, this horse will be picking them up and laying them down like Citation in the 1950 Kentucky Derby. This horse is definitely a player if the fractions are speedy up front. #3 Boston Red Sock (sometimes called: "Las Medias Rojas") can be part on his best effort. He threw in a clunker last week, but, prior to that, he finished second in a very good time. Finally, #4 Chris surprised me by taking the opener last week. He beat my choice, Keva Key. He now steps up in company; yet, he still could complete a gimmick in his current good form.
Race Thireteen: Don't let last week's AHDC race fool you. The #2 Ty Baron is capable of a much better time. I would rate him as my top pick in the Freehold finale. Driver Steve Smith is most capable of bringing this horse home for some picture-taking. Further, the horse has faced better company than most of the pacers in this race. Underneath: the #1 Cheyenne Bogart looks like a major danger. The horse had a tough post last time out. He's now drawn the rail. That will help. He should be able to hit the board. #3 Devil's Claw N is a classy vet with about a quarter-of-a-mill in lifetime earnings. On his best, he can be part of an exotic. Also worthy of condsideration is the #7 Alpha Man. Last time out, he was also in one of those AHDC races. On his best, he might be able to close for part. Finally, #8 Bubba McGee is the unknown factor in this race. If Jack Baggitt leaves with this horse, and he can then find a tuck, he may surprise. Much will depend on what Baggitt does with this horse at the start.