AQU,CD,CRC,HOL,WO- Thursday 11/25/2010

[MitchS]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. It's only fitting as I'm sitting here getting ready for tomorrows cards and also watching the movie.. "Let It Ride" :D ... Funny horse racing movie with Richard Dreyfuss. I haven't seen it in a while. Probably have watched it a dozen times :D .. If you haven't see it go out and rent it!

XL horse racing sheet is ready for download. I've also created a new sheet that is reformatted to a PDF file. It's easier to read and print out. The only drawback is that you can't do any dynamic sorting etc..

Have a great Thanksgiving to all.
M

[mabred]

mitch

made my day had a hard time printing!!

I hope u keep these free.

Mabred

[MitchS]

Hey Mabred,

The PDF format prints great on my computer at least! It's 15 pages for all 5 tracks. 3 pages per track. The XL format doesn't print so good. Are you trying to print from the PDF or XL formats?

[mabred]

Mitch
sorry I mislead u the pdf file prints great!! good work!!

hard to believe I'm finally winning.The excel file was tough

for me to print.I'm a bit slow as u can tell.Computers

were never my strong suit.I'm gaining on it.. LOL

thanks

mabred

[TexasDolly]

I was wondering if there is access to this site in general. I haven't been able to access it this morning at all.
Thank you,
TD

[MitchS]

I'm having a server issue this morning :mad: ... The website is completely down and I can't get in to do anything. I'm probably going to need and upgrade the server in the very near future. Hopefully it will be up soon.

On a good note, we had some nice value based winners on yesterdays 5 race card sheet including a real bomber in a super high pressured race. Be back in a little bit to post results. Busy trying to figure out wants going on with the server!

[MitchS]

Nice day yesterday at 3 of the 5 tracks posted. I always display results of what I call the value based horses easily recognizable on the sheet. There are a few situations that can be tricky. The public seems to miss the highly pressured race a high percentage of the time. I've mentioned this before but I'll repeat. In highly pressured races, ESPECIALLY super highly pressured races you can just throw out all of the speed numbers. Those numbers mean nothing anymore in a race of this kind. You need to look to your Late and Kic horses and forget about those other lackluster numbers including the speed ratings. Just throw them out the window in a super highly pressured race!

I believe Michael Pizzolla mentioned something about this some years ago in one of his writings. Something to the effect of what I just said.. that you just toss all of those Speed rating numbers etc.. out the window in a really highly pressured race. Whats important in those types of races is the horses displaying good closing abilities.

Anyway with that said, YES...We hit the $91.00 horse at CD yesterday in the 6th. This horse was plainly clear on the sheet as having the #3 Late and the #1 Kic ratings and this race was an INSANELY HIGH PRESSURED RACE :D

2 tracks that didn't fare well on Thanksgiving day-

CRC- $8.80, $8.20
HOL- $8.00

3 tracks went well-

AQU- $16.60, $14.20, $11.60, $6.90, $6.20
CD- $91.00, $27.20, $18.80, $17.80, $9.00
WO- $16.80, $10.00, $8.90, $6.20, $6.10, $6.00, $5.70

Any questions about any of these races just give me a shout. I'll be posting some of these races with explanation on the site within the next week. Look for these practice races on the bottom of the horse racing page of the website.

M

[TexasDolly]

I am curious to know what constituted the highly pressured situation in the CD 6th race yesterday to set up the big finish by Deputy Sreva. When you get a minute maybe you could point out the factors that you saw in the race that indicated a highly pressured race.
Thank you,
TD

[MitchS]

Hey TD,

I mentioned on the horse racing page of the website about using E1, E2 and the Q/S in conjunction with each other to help determine the pace shape set-up. My E1 and E2 ratings are not taken from the last line. The rating uses multiple lines taken from the last 9 races so there more of what this horse is capable of rather than what this horse did in the last running line or two. Most of my ratings are based on this principle.

Determining the race pace set-up using the sheet I present-

1. Look at the E1 rating. How many horses are in the 90+ range. Closer to 100 the better.

In this particular race there were 3 at 93, 91, 90.

Next look at the E2 rating and see how many horses are in the 90+ range. Closer to 100 the better.

In this particular race there were 8 ranging from 99 to 91.

Next thing we want to do is look at the Q/S. Which is the Quirin speed points and the labeled running style of each horse. First thing we do is count the speed points with all of the horses with 5 or better and then take note of how many E and E/P style horses are in the race.

In this race we had a speed point total of 51 :D, and 9, E and E/P style horses :D


As a general rule of thumb using the speed points alone. Horses with a 7-8 have high early speed. Horses with a 6-7 have good early speed.

In this race there were 3 horses with a 7-8 and another 5 horses with a 5-6.


Overview-

1. Make note of E1 horses 90+
2. Make note of E2 horses 90+
3. Count speed points of all horses over 5 and take note of running styles.
4. Confirm and compare the Q/S with E1 and E2.

If you do this for each and every race you'll have a very good idea of the race shape set-up projection. Does it run the way you saw it every time? No, but you will project it correctly more times than not and that's all we need to get an edge.

Hope this helps,
M

[TexasDolly]

Thanks for the comprehensive reply. It was enlightening. However,the race leader didn't seem to me to be under any pressure and I would appreciate your comments on the fit between the analysis and the
actual running of the race.
Thank you,
TD

[MitchS]

Yes, you are absolutely right! In the actual running of the race it appears that there is no pressure for the race leader at the pace call. In actuality though the race leader did set reasonably modest fractions for those quality of horses. 22.3 - 46.4 -112.3 - 126.1 - 139.2

Looking after the fact, the first two fractions in this race helped in setting up a closer favorable style with these quality of horses. If as an example, this race were to have run at a 24 to 25 and or 48 to 49 clip we might have a completely different outcome...

As handicappers, we assimilate as much pre-race information as we can or seem necessary to project the running of the race in question. A majority of the time its not going to run EXACTLY (and there are many reasons for this including, but not limited to, intent of the jockey and or trainer or both as strategy before the running of the race) as we see it but hopefully it will attribute enough of these factors to run in a manner consistent enough with the pre-race data. Remember that this is horse racing and that these are herd animals..

Well, at least that's the way I see it :)

M

[TexasDolly]

I am not sure whether the pressure
was present in any real sense or not but the pace was one at which this horse had run his some of his best races. As a result it seems it gave him his best shot at winning. I will look at your numbers when the pdf is available as I can't view the excel format. Perhaps they pointed toward a pace close to this one in which case they would have been of tremendous help.
Thank you again,
TD

[MitchS]

I am not sure whether the pressure
was present in any real sense or not but the pace was one at which this horse had run his some of his best races. As a result it seems it gave him his best shot at winning. I will look at your numbers when the pdf is available as I can't view the excel format. Perhaps they pointed toward a pace close to this one in which case they would have been of tremendous help.
Thank you again,
TD


You said above that you will look at the pdf when available as you can't view the XL format? Does that mean you are wanting to see the pdf of this particular race? If so, I can email it too you. Let me know?

[TexasDolly]

Having looked at the CD #6 I am at a lost as to what column the Kick rating is. The one labeled Kic doesn't indicate that the winner had the top Kick rating if I am reading it right.
It doesn't appear that the predicted pace times are listed . Is that correct ?


Thank you,

[TexasDolly]

I enlarged the font and can now see where Deputy had the largest Kick. Sorry.

[MitchS]

Having looked at the CD #6 I am at a lost as to what column the Kick rating is. The one labeled Kic doesn't indicate that the winner had the top Kick rating if I am reading it right.
It doesn't appear that the predicted pace times are listed . Is that correct ?


Thank you,


I apologize that my website is still down, Serious server issues the last two days, otherwise I'd direct you to the horse racing page of the site. I'm going to copy and paste from my backup what the ratings on the sheet mean and the process that I go through in using them. My way at least. After reading this, let me know what you are still uncertain of and we will clear it up. Just want to make sure that we are on the same page before we do that. Also make sure and scratch the #3 horse in that race as that file is before scratches. Not that its going to make any difference...


From the horse racing page of the website-

Numerical sheet explanation:


TK- Track

RN- Race number

Horse- Horses Name

PN- Program number

ML- Morning line. Generally speaking you'll want your selections to have a morning line of 12 to 1 or less. Quality of track and the morning line maker can effect this decision.
LR- Last raced. How many days since this horse last raced. Generally speaking, you'll want to eliminate a horse that hasn't raced in the last 35 days unless he or she is dropping 2 class levels.

WA- Workout age. How many days since this horse had a workout. Generally speaking you'd want to see this horse have a race or a workout with the last 15 days.

WL- Workout last. Horses last workout in speed rating points. Higher the number the better. Generally speaking you'll want to review this rating more with first time starters and or horses that are coming back after a layoff of more than 35 days. A speed rating of 80 and over is good.

P- Purse value. A plus number means this horse is racing today at a purse level greater then its last race. A minus number means this horse is racing at a purse level less than its last race. One point is equal to $1,000. If as an example the number on the sheet is -10. That would mean that this horse is dropping 10,000 in purse value from its last race. The opposite would hold true as 10 with no "-" would indicate that this horse is rising in purse value by $10,000 etc.. Remember to ALWAYS look at this rating and see what runners are rising and especially DROPPING in purse value.

CLS- Class rating. Higher number the better. Computated in part by the the number of start this horse has had and how much this horse has earned.

E1- Horses E1 rating. This rating shows what this horse is capable of rather than the horses last running line or two. Higher number the better. E1 rates how fast the horse ran from the start of the race to the 1st call (2f pace in sprints and 4f pace in most routes). Get in the habit of sorting this rating highest to lowest, to see who the pace setters in the race will be. Generally speaking a rating of 90 plus shows a horse with some speed. If multiple horse are in the 90+ range you can expect a hotly contested pace in which case you might gear some of your decisions toward the late and or kic rating.

E2- Horses E2 rating. This rating shows what this horse is capable of rather than the horse’s last running line or two. Higher number the better. E2 rates how fast the horse ran from the start of the race to the 2nd call (4f pace in sprints and 6f pace in most routes). Get in the habit of sorting this rating highest to lowest, to see who the pace setters in the race will be. Generally speaking a rating of 90 plus shows a horse with some speed. If multiple horse are in the 90+ range you can expect a hotly contested pace in which case you might gear some of your decisions toward the late and or kic rating.

Q/S- Quirin speed points and horses running style described below-

E- Horses are generally need-the-lead types which can not reasonably be expected to successfully rate. This style horse typically vies for the early lead or whose better races are run on the lead. Most ’E’ horses are battling for the lead through the duration of the race.

E/P- Horses can reasonably be expected to successfully lay just behind a pacesetter. Like an ’E’ horse he or she may also run on the frontend. However, unlike an ’E’ horse, it can be running 2nd or 3rd and within a few lengths early before making the winning move.

P- The ’P’ horse doesn’t typically run from the rear-of-the-pack in it’s better races. He or she generally runs close to the pace but rarely, if ever, challenges for the lead early.

S- A horse exhibiting a typical ’S’ (Sustain or Closer) run style would show the horse running way off the pace and closing in the finish of the race passing the tired front runners. Look for these [S] types in a heavy pressured race with a lot of early speed horses.

N/A- Not available. Horse has not raced enough to determine his or her running style.


Early Speed points- The Early Speed points are displayed in the the 1st Call in recent races at today’s distance. The higher the points, the more early the Early Speed ability is of the horse based upon its running position and beaten lengths at the first call. Points range from 0 to 8. Higher the number the better.

** Q/S then represents the early speed points and the running style of the horse as presented above. We need to sort this rating with the higher numbers on top 8,7,6,5,4 etc and compare this with the E1 and E2 rating to PROJECT our pace of the race. Generally speaking we need to add up all of the "Early Speed Points" of all horses with a 5 or higher. If there are a multiple of horses with points of 5 or better and ALSO a lot of horses with a 90 plus E1 and E2 rating then we may be presented with a hotly contested pace in this race in which case we'll need to look for some E/P, but mostly P and S style horses in conjunction with a good Late and or Kic rating.**
SR-L- Speed rating including variant of the horses last race. This rating shows what this horse speed rating is in its LAST RACE. Higher number the better.

SR-L9- Speed rating that is more forgiving. It looks back at this horses last 9 races. This rating shows what this horse is capable of rather than the horses last running line or two. Because this rating looks back at the last 9 races, this rating has an ability to isolate longshots on occasion. Higher number the better. This is the rating that the sheet is sorted on. Generally speaking you'll want to consider the top 3 horses and look for gaps in the rating. You might have 112, 111, 109 then a 100. Consider only the top 3 in that situation. Also look at the SR-L of the horses last race. This horse might not have a great SR-L9 BUT he shows a really great SR-L.

LATE- Late Pace Rating rates how fast the horse ran from the 2nd call (pre-stretch call) to the finish. This rating shows what this horse is capable of rather than the horses last running line or two. Higher number the better. We generally want to use this rating more in highly pressured races, route and or especially turf races.

Kic- Calculated by subtracting the horses beaten lengths at the finish by the beaten lengths at the pace call. This number uses the horses last two races. We want to see a horse recent closing ability as opposed to the Late pace rating which gives us two closing indicators and we need to look at them both. A minus number means this horse was gaining lengths to the finish line where as a plus number means that this horse was losing lengths from the pace call to the finish. We will want to use this rating in highly pressured races along with route and especially turf races. KEEP IN MIND THAT IF THE HORSE WAS ON THE LEAD AT THE PACE CALL AND ALSO WON THIS RACE THAT THIS RATING WILL NOT REFLECT A HORSES CLOSING ABILITY.

W%- Horses win percentage this year. In maiden races this rating has no use. In all other races you'll generally want a horse that has won one race in his last 6 starts. You want a horse that LIKES TO WIN!

J%- Jockey win percent this year. Generally you'll want your jockey to have won 8% of his races or more.

T%- Trainers win percentage this year. Generally you'll want a trainer to have won 10% of his races. It's important to look at both jockey and trainer percentages compaired to the other horses especially within your contenders list. You'll be amazed that somestimes theses stats alone produce many winners within the top 3.

WD- Weight differential. A minus number means this horse is carrying less weight than its last race. A plus number mean this horse is carrying more weight than its last race. 1 point per pound. Never count out a horse dropping a few pounds from his last race ESPECIALLY if he or she has other things (good ratings) going for them!

Comp- The Comp rating takes on E1, E2, overall Speed and late abilities. This number is weighted slightly more toward early speed [E1]. Because of this it has an ability to isolate longshots on occasion.

F- Finish position in last race

BL- Beaten lengths in last race

MP- Mud pedigree. Higher number the better. Good use for this rating is if the track is off today.

TP- Turf pedigree. Higher number the better. Good use for this rating is if the race is on turf and or the horse has never run on turf before.

Trip- Trip notes of horses last race. Was the horse in question having trouble in his last race. Did he or she go 3-4 wide?




The XL handicapping sheet is sorted on SR-L9. This is a more forgiving speed rating that looks back at the horses last 9 races. The first thing that will need to notice from the sheet is the ML, morning line. Most winners fall in the range with a morning line of 12 to 1 or less. That’s not to sat that you'll want disqualify any top 3 or 4 horse that has a ML of over 12 to 1 BUT you'll need to find a reason to keep him in otherwise he must be eliminated quickly.

The next thing we'll need to notice is the LR and WA together which is when the horse last raced and when his last workout was. Generally speaking you'll want a runner that has raced within the last 35 days and or has had a workout and or race within the last 15 days. Again you shouldn't automatically eliminate a horse that doesn't qualify but he MUST have a reason to look past this rule. Is he or she dropping in class? Has he been off for 180 days? How are his works? How is this trainers stats with layoffs etc?

The next VERY important stat to look at is the "P" rating. The "P" rating tells us if this horse is rising or going down in purse value from his last race. Do not ignore a big (-P) value, a horse really dropping down in purse value. Sure the public sees that too but his record is so muddled that they dismiss this great purse/class drop and the horse comes home paying $30.00. Happens all the time! Also pay attention to his CLASS rating compared to the "P" rating.

The next VERY IMPORTANT number/numbers to look at are the E1, E2 and Q/S. It’s important to look at these numbers together to get an overall view of the pace set-up of the race. A lot of horses with an E1 and E2 rating of 90+ indicates a possible fast pace set-up. Don’t forget ABOUT that lone "E" style horse that could possibly go wire to wire. Then we need to confirm these E1 and E2 numbers with the Q/S. How many E and E/P style horses are there in the race? Count the speed points of all the runners in the race with points above 5. Compare this with the E1 and E2 numbers you just looked at! If you do this for each and every race you should have a pretty good idea of this races pace set-up. Is it a hotly contested pace? Maybe you need to look at the Late and Kic ratings?

Once these procedures are done is important to look at the SR-L9. This is a more forgiving speed rating that looks back at the horses last 9 races. Look for gaps in the numbers. Does that top horse have a 112, next one 111, then 109, then 102? Is there is a noticeable gap between 109 and 102? Then compare this with the SR-L, the horses last speed rating. Sometimes they score not so well in the SR-L9 but there last race is exceptional. Generally speaking you'll want your contenders to be within the top 3 or 4 of the SR-L9.

Late and Kic ratings are important as well. Does this horse have the #1 rated SR-L9 and also the #1 rated Late? They tend to win there fare share but at lower prices than we'd like. Maybe we need to sit this one out? Remember that BOTH the Late and Kic ratings are important to look at together. The Late rating takes in all of the horse races where as the KIC rating shows how this horse has closed recently in his last 2 races. When looking for closers in highly pressures pace set-ups I'll tend to use both the Late and the Kic horses. Usually only one or two horses will have enough merit on the OTHER RATING to make a final decision on the correct horse to play. Sometimes if the right odds presents themselves it doesn't hurt to play 2 horses to win in the same race!

Next review the W%, J% and T%, the horse, jockey and trainers winning percentage. In non-maiden races we like to see a horse having a win within the horses last 6 races. Again all of my rules are not set in stone but we need to have a reason to by pass them. Has the horse been in trouble with some of his races? Dropping in class today etc? We’d like a jockey rating of 8% and a trainer rating of 10% if possible. Sometimes we fall short of these numbers and it also depends on the track itself. Are we at a bush track? A lot of times you’ll see a top trainer and jockey combination within the top 3 SR-L9 that dominate a lot of races. Look for a top trainer within your selections and you’ll prosper! REMEMBER though that we are looking for value. We’ll tend to settle with less than ideal numbers sometimes for a nice price in the odds!

Also pay attention to the WD, weight differential, especially compared to the other horses.

The Comp rating takes on E1, E2, overall speed and late abilities. This number is weighted slightly towards the early speed [E1]. Because of this it has an ability to isolate long-shots on occasion. These numbers sometime line up with the SR-L9 and sometimes they don’t. When they don’t you’ll need to ask yourself why? Also pay attention to gaps with the Comp rating as we do with the SR-L9.

The MP and TP, mud and turf pedigree ratings are only generally used when we have an off track and or a turf race or horse that’s never run on an off track and or the turf.

The last thing that will need to look at which is very important is the “Trip” from the horse’s last race. Was he or she in trouble? Go wide around the far turn by 3 or 4 etc?

Following theses procedures in every race will generally get you between 1 to 3 contenders per race. It’s just a matter of pulling the trigger at that point. Is there value within the wager itself? There’s no harm in betting more than one horse to win in a single race. Generally we’ll want 2 to 1 or better to be a value play but sometime we’ll accept less with a standout horse. Pass a majority of races and wait for the proper SITUATIONS to set-up and you’ll be going home with more than you came with, NOT EVERYDAY but you’ll be ahead in the long run!

[TexasDolly]

Thanks again for the information . The sequence for working up the race is rather lengthy for these eyes these days but none the less I'll take a closer look at the technique. I wondered if there had been an attempt to weight these steps
so that a contender list might be generated .
I appreciate the time you have taken to present this work and the files you sent.
TD

[MitchS]

I understand. The process, for me at least is pretty fast, but I've been doing it for a while now at a lot of tracks on a daily basis. I'll give some thought on trying to automate it a little better in the future.

Have a great night,
M