Meet pro handicapper Kevin "Duke Matties

[The_Knight_Sky]

http://i53.tinypic.com/jpx5s8.jpg (http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/2010/11/meet-pro-handicapper-kevin-duke-matties.html)

view clip and read full post here (http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/2010/11/meet-pro-handicapper-kevin-duke-matties.html)

[BIG HIT]

Thank's nice to hear\see someone live the dream apparentlyand not promoteing or selling anything video says it all.

[JimG]

Big Hit,

I agree 100% with what you said. On the one hand, it was refreshing hearing of such success from someone without feeling like they were trying to reach into my back pocket with the other hand.

Thanks to the op for posting.

[kingfin66]

I wonder if he posts here at Pace Advantage. Duke? Are you around?

[The_Knight_Sky]

Kingfin66 -

I am not sure Duke posts here but I am quite sure he knows about this thread.
I got an e-mail note from his father with some kind words about his handicapping sons.
That was the nice surprise of the day. :)

I noticed from the video clip that he runs down every major factor
that he looks at - except speed figures. hmm I wonder why ;)

Thanks to everybody for the enormous interest in this man and this particular topic.

[JustRalph]

I would rather have seen some more about his hit rate etc

What else does he do for a living ? He obviously has money........but did he have it before he started playing or what?

I found the info lacking

[judd]

I would rather have seen some more about his hit rate etc

What else does he do for a living ? He obviously has money........but did he have it before he started playing or what?

I found the info lacking
same here

wife is hot though :kiss:

[teddy]

Thats the third large gambler I have met that keys on track bias. No computers.

[andymays]

Doing it right is hard work and it's time consuming. I'm sure he puts in 10 hours a day or more handicapping.

Good Video. :ThmbUp:

[andymays]

Kingfin66 -

I am not sure Duke posts here but I am quite sure he knows about this thread.
I got an e-mail note from his father with some kind words about his handicapping sons.
That was the nice surprise of the day. :)

I noticed from the video clip that he runs down every major factor
that he looks at - except speed figures. hmm I wonder why ;)

Thanks to everybody for the enormous interest in this man and this particular topic.

Maybe you could ask about his routine. I'd be interested to know how his typical day goes. I'm sure he has a process he goes through that is fairly consisten day after day. There is probably one area he usually starts with and one area he usually ends with before he makes his plays. If he's handicapping 6 tracks a day he has to have something that helps him narrow down the playable races fairly quickly before he gets deep into those races.

[The_Knight_Sky]

I would rather have seen some more about his hit rate etc

What else does he do for a living ? He obviously has money
........but did he have it before he started playing or what?

I found the info lacking



Ralph -

Thats a four minute video clip produced by the PlayersNetwork on YouTube.
That's about as mainstream an interview you'll probably get about.
That means no discussion on the specifics of $1 R.O.I.

Andy - I'd love to asking him about the details in a future blog post.
For those wishing to read more about The Duke, he was featured in Horseplayer Magazine last summer and is worth revisiting for those who collect that periodical.

[JustRalph]

Ralph -

Thats a four minute video clip produced by the PlayersNetwork on YouTube.
That's about as mainstream an interview you'll probably get about.
That means no discussion on the specifics of $1 R.O.I.

Andy - I'd love to asking him about the details in a future blog post.
For those wishing to read more about The Duke, he was featured in Horseplayer Magazine last summer and is worth revisiting for those who collect that periodical.

He was in Horseplayer last summer ? Cool...... it ought to arrive sometime this winter then............

[George Sands]

I'm waiting for some cyber-shrink to make a connection between Duke's focus on biases and his bowling days. He was a superb bowler. 300-games and all. Adjusting to subtle changes in the lanes from day to day.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Wow.His approach sounds nearly identical to mine except for he has way more experience and I'm sure a bigger bankroll.But looking at bias,the matchup,and class,probable pace is where I start before I even zero in on any type of figure handicapping.

The one thing it sounds like he has the others(at least myself) doesn't is to be able to assimilate a lot of info at a high rate.I think that experience and ability is what separates winners from losers.

Sounds like a nice guy too.Good for him:ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I noticed from the video clip that he runs down every major factor
that he looks at - except speed figures. hmm I wonder why ;)But he did mention pace figures.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thats the third large gambler I have met that keys on track bias. No computers.No computer? I bet he uses a computer to generate their homemade pace figures.

[JimG]

No computer? I bet he uses a computer to generate their homemade pace figures.

As I recall from reading the Horseplayer Magazine profile, his brother Paul is the computer guy they generate their own pace figures and keep track of their trip notes and generate their own horses to watch. Although he did not mention speed figs in the video, I think he and his brother calculate them as well via computer.

If I am wrong, I am sure someone will be quick to correct as I am going from memory.

Jim

[George Sands]

Although he did not mention speed figs in the video, I think he and his brother calculate them as well via computer.

If I am wrong, I am sure someone will be quick to correct as I am going from memory.

Duke's brother Paul used to work for Beyer. Then he quit. Now he makes final-time figures (etc.) for the family. They include groundloss. And they are terrific.

[Donnie]

Re: HP Mag....
was brought to my attention 2 weeks ago their site was "down" for maintenance..... apparently still down. Any thoughts?

[BillW]

Re: HP Mag....
was brought to my attention 2 weeks ago their site was "down" for maintenance..... apparently still down. Any thoughts?

It seems to me that the last time I checked, about a month or so ago it was down.

[PaceAdvantage]

Duke's brother Paul used to work for Beyer. Then he quit. Now he makes final-time figures (etc.) for the family. They include groundloss. And they are terrific.Thank you for dispelling the notion that they don't use speed figures in their handicapping just because it wasn't mentioned in the video (although pace figures were).

[The Hawk]

He looks like someone famous. I'm going to say he's a cross between Phil Mickelson and Adam Lambert. As someone else said, the wife is his biggest score. :ThmbUp:

[Fox]

I would rather have seen some more about his hit rate etc

What else does he do for a living ? He obviously has money........but did he have it before he started playing or what?

I found the info lacking

I'm guessing he didn't grow up poor. There's not really poverty in Laguna. I think they even made a reality show called "Laguna Beach" about a bunch of wealthy kids.

[George Sands]

I'm guessing he didn't grow up poor. There's not really poverty in Laguna. I think they even made a reality show called "Laguna Beach" about a bunch of wealthy kids.

He grew up in NY, I believe. Then he moved to Las Vegas and lived there for quite a while. Then he moved to Laguna Beach.

[sonnyp]

duke is the youngest of three brothers who grew up in hudson n.y. certainly NOT considered a "lap of luxury" type place. their dad, "chick", is a real mild mannered, very much down to earth, kind of guy. the sons paul, gregg and duke were exposed to "working class" activities such as baseball, pool and bowling at an early age. duke excelled at these with pitching no hitters at hudson high and a number of sanctioned 300 games at bowling. however, the family's real love was the track and they spent many late summer/fall aftrnoons at the great barrington fair.

i don't think any of the sons completed college as the call of the track was too strong. paul, the oldest, went to work for andy beyer. he bought some cheap,cheap claimers which gregg trained after working a short time for different trainers around ny. duke was gregg's groom/hot walker etc.

basically, they had nothing. paul took his brain and the knowledge he got from being around beyer and with his brothers they began betting on the races. everything they have now comes from hard work, long hours and a gifted approach they acquired and developed of betting racehorses.

they are gifted, low key, low profile, very successful, great guys. they have worked very, very hard at what they do and deserve every bit of what they have accomplished.

[CincyHorseplayer]

duke is the youngest of three brothers who grew up in hudson n.y. certainly NOT considered a "lap of luxury" type place. their dad, "chick", is a real mild mannered, very much down to earth, kind of guy. the sons paul, gregg and duke were exposed to "working class" activities such as baseball, pool and bowling at an early age. duke excelled at these with pitching no hitters at hudson high and a number of sanctioned 300 games at bowling. however, the family's real love was the track and they spent many late summer/fall aftrnoons at the great barrington fair.

i don't think any of the sons completed college as the call of the track was too strong. paul, the oldest, went to work for andy beyer. he bought some cheap,cheap claimers which gregg trained after working a short time for different trainers around ny. duke was gregg's groom/hot walker etc.

basically, they had nothing. paul took his brain and the knowledge he got from being around beyer and with his brothers they began betting on the races. everything they have now comes from hard work, long hours and a gifted approach they acquired and developed of betting racehorses.

they are gifted, low key, low profile, very successful, great guys. they have worked very, very hard at what they do and deserve every bit of what they have accomplished.


Thanks for the post Sonny.Very good on the background.Sound like some folks I can relate to than what they were being projected or perceived to be.:ThmbUp:

[Fastracehorse]

1. What little insight he unearthed when explaining his handicapping method. I mean, many players I talk to have his level of sophistication or more. He thought it was a big deal analyzing trainer patterns.

2. How hot his wife is.

But seriously, I was just reading that the NYRA denied Greg Matties stall space in the spring of 2008 for supposed "irregular betting patterns".

Apparently, it is a well known fact that the Matties brothers co-own horses with Greg, and that they are big bettors.

One of the horses that Greg Matties was being investigated for won by open lengths in 2 of it's previous 3 races at odds of 5-1 and then 7.8-1.

Those wins of said horse seemed suspect just based on the reversal of form.

So, Matties, G sued NYRA and got his stall space back.

My point being, that I doubt the Dukes handicapping usurps much of the talent on this board; and that he takes advantage of inside information in a brothernship.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

BTW,

the info i got was in a blog on the web site 'Left at the Gate'

titled "Too Secretive for their Own Good"

fffastt

[George Sands]

1. What little insight he unearthed when explaining his handicapping method. I mean, many players I talk to have his level of sophistication or more. He thought it was a big deal analyzing trainer patterns.

He was talking for how long? Three minutes total? You think you have a good read on his level of sophistication based on that? Maybe you can stuff everything you know into three minutes, but he can't.

By the way, his thinking it was a "big deal" to analyze trainer patterns? You invented that.

[Fastracehorse]

He was talking for how long? Three minutes total? You think you have a good read on his level of sophistication based on that? Maybe you can stuff everything you know into three minutes, but he can't.

By the way, his thinking it was a "big deal" to analyze trainer patterns? You invented that.

There is too much of this mythologizing of mediocre horse players

For some reason our game loves to do this

George, he had nothing to say

He said he owns 50 horses, did he mean co-own?

fffastt

[thaskalos]

There is too much of this mythologizing of mediocre horse players

For some reason our game loves to do this

George, he had nothing to say

He said he owns 50 horses, did he mean co-own?

fffastt
Even if the guy had more than 3 minutes of "air time", what exactly would you expect him to say?

Given the competitive nature of this business, he could never go into any detail concerning his handicapping techniques...nor could he be expected to divulge his income to us - for obvious reasons.

To call him a "mediocre" player is terribly unfair, IMO...especially since some people here seem to know him - and have substantiated what he does for a living.

We horseplayers are a curious lot; we complain that there are no "role models" for us out there...and when we see one, we don't believe that he is who he claims to be.

Don't forget, the guy is not trying to sell us anything...and therefore, he owes us no further expanations.

[George Sands]

George, he had nothing to say

It was three minutes of talking, Fastracehorse. It was an introduction to someone who makes an excellent living, in real life, as a professional bettor. Duke was not on there to hold your hand and teach you how to become a winner. Man, do your posts ever need a green-eyed monster emoticon.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

Gotta figure much of the hype could just be a cover story for using insider info. :D

[the little guy]

This is a very interesting thread, and frankly, it explains quite well why many that actually have something to say ( which excludes the likes of Fastracehorse.....the absolute epitome of internet fraud ) have left internet conversations. Duke Matties's skills are getting questioned by the likes of some posters in this thread. To those of us that know Duke, as I do, this is laughable beyond belief. An all-time knee slapper. Why bother posting when jerks like Fastracehorse, a clown who spent four months on another website crying that I really didn't hit a Pick-6 ( which of course I did hit ), can question the likes of Duke. Sorry.....but it's just not worth it.

The world has changed.....it's no longer those that cannot do teach.....now it's those that can't do, criticize those that can, on the internet.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's not exactly like people are buying what FRH is selling...

[plainolebill]

It's not exactly like people are buying what FRH is selling...

u got that right

bbbbill

[Fastracehorse]

This is a very interesting thread, and frankly, it explains quite well why many that actually have something to say ( which excludes the likes of Fastracehorse.....the absolute epitome of internet fraud ) have left internet conversations. Duke Matties's skills are getting questioned by the likes of some posters in this thread. To those of us that know Duke, as I do, this is laughable beyond belief. An all-time knee slapper. Why bother posting when jerks like Fastracehorse, a clown who spent four months on another website crying that I really didn't hit a Pick-6 ( which of course I did hit ), can question the likes of Duke. Sorry.....but it's just not worth it.

The world has changed.....it's no longer those that cannot do teach.....now it's those that can't do, criticize those that can, on the internet.

Good 4 U!

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

It's not exactly like people are buying what FRH is selling...

i am quite proud of this trait and it 'might' be useful in this game

kinda funny actually (the responses)

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

It was three minutes of talking, Fastracehorse. It was an introduction to someone who makes an excellent living, in real life, as a professional bettor. Duke was not on there to hold your hand and teach you how to become a winner. Man, do your posts ever need a green-eyed monster emoticon.

if u think about it
3 min's is a very long time

fffastt

[PaceAdvantage]

i am quite proud of this trait and it 'might' be useful in this game

kinda funny actually (the responses)

fffasttBeing a dick just for being a dick's sake is not an admirable quality for anyone to possess.

[Fastracehorse]

being a dick?

how'd that get conjured?

i would call it a critical analysis

fffastt

[CBedo]

being a dick?

how'd that get conjured?

i would call it a critical analysis

fffasttI would call it "critical," but hardly "analysis," lol. (Sorry, couldn't resist)

[Fastracehorse]

I would call it "critical," but hardly "analysis," lol. (Sorry, couldn't resist)

somewhat funny

fffastt

[CBedo]

somewhat funny

fffasttabout as much as I could hope for. ;)

[Fastracehorse]

about as much as I could hope for. ;)

i'm no Voltaire either

just refer to the consensus

fffastt

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is a very interesting thread, and frankly, it explains quite well why many that actually have something to say ( which excludes the likes of Fastracehorse.....the absolute epitome of internet fraud ) have left internet conversations. Duke Matties's skills are getting questioned by the likes of some posters in this thread. To those of us that know Duke, as I do, this is laughable beyond belief. An all-time knee slapper. Why bother posting when jerks like Fastracehorse, a clown who spent four months on another website crying that I really didn't hit a Pick-6 ( which of course I did hit ), can question the likes of Duke. Sorry.....but it's just not worth it.

The world has changed.....it's no longer those that cannot do teach.....now it's those that can't do, criticize those that can, on the internet.

TLG,I'm Joe no name over here but I agree 110%.To sit here and listen to the guy get disparaged.Whatever.Nobody steps up to the plate and talks about winning in this game,and when somebody does they dress like a target.It's crap.This is a winnable game and this guy is talking more humbly than he should about it.There should be more press about horseplayers that win.And more and more and more and more and more...

[JustRalph]

I would rather have seen some more about his hit rate etc

What else does he do for a living ? He obviously has money........but did he have it before he started playing or what?

I found the info lacking

some of us didn't go after the guy, some of us just wanted to hear more.

Is there a long form version of this interview anywhere?

[CincyHorseplayer]

some of us didn't go after the guy, some of us just wanted to hear more.

Is there a long form version of this interview anywhere?

You dropped the hammer on this guy so is there a longform reason you are riding his nuts like a magic carpet?

[BIG HIT]

Like this board lot can be learn here that being said i can't think of anybody that has contributed to this board that has not paid the price.
Weather it boxie and his methology or mattie video or you and your hdcping with bris pastperformence and list go's on.
The pace and cap board dozen't seem to have scoffer that this board seem to bring out. Even Doug 32 and xfile offer free program or angle book for FREE and still someone say my program is better which is fine but not relavent see you are not offering it for free.Same with x file some his free angle book they scoff at him to.The point is these are free and they put there time energy in to it. I myself don't know alot of people that can do what they do let alone do it for free.I thank all contributer's for there knowledge that they offered.Not afraid to say i learn from you guy's.Probably biggest thing is there are good people here and in world

[The_Knight_Sky]

Is there a long form version of this interview anywhere?



Ralph -

Thanks for the interest.
This clip is the only version of the Matties interview
available at the moment at the PlayersNetwork channel on YouTube.

I'll be keeping an eye out for more good stuff in the future though.

~ TKS

[Charli125]

This is a very interesting thread, and frankly, it explains quite well why many that actually have something to say ( which excludes the likes of Fastracehorse.....the absolute epitome of internet fraud ) have left internet conversations. Duke Matties's skills are getting questioned by the likes of some posters in this thread. To those of us that know Duke, as I do, this is laughable beyond belief. An all-time knee slapper. Why bother posting when jerks like Fastracehorse, a clown who spent four months on another website crying that I really didn't hit a Pick-6 ( which of course I did hit ), can question the likes of Duke. Sorry.....but it's just not worth it.

The world has changed.....it's no longer those that cannot do teach.....now it's those that can't do, criticize those that can, on the internet.

Especially when this is just the type of player that horse racing needs. Poker really broke into the mainstream once there were visible winners, winning loads of money on TV. This guy comes out and declares himself a winner, talks for a few minutes about his process, and instead of everyone rushing out to try to copy his method, he gets disparaged.

We could use a dozen copies of this guy to convince new players that this game is actually beatable, and they might want to give it a try.

[joeyspicks]

Its amazing really,....losing players just cannot believe it can be done. So rather than examine themselves and what they could be doing WRONG (quite possibly for years)...its easier and less painful to call the winning player a
liar or imply they are a fraud. Good post

[JustRalph]

You dropped the hammer on this guy so is there a longform reason you are riding his nuts like a magic carpet?

you call that dropping the hammer ? Get real.......... I thought the piece was lacking..... it really didn't tell us anything? It appeared to me to be a teaser piece....... I fully expected there to be a link at the end to finish the interview or hit a website for more.

If you think that's dropping the hammer...... you are being a little sensitive don't you think?

[PaceAdvantage]

Especially when this is just the type of player that horse racing needs. Poker really broke into the mainstream once there were visible winners, winning loads of money on TV. This guy comes out and declares himself a winner, talks for a few minutes about his process, and instead of everyone rushing out to try to copy his method, he gets disparaged.

We could use a dozen copies of this guy to convince new players that this game is actually beatable, and they might want to give it a try.One guy talking smack and now he's been disparaged?

There were boatloads of supportive replies for the vast majority of this thread, until one guy comes along acting like a dick, and now all of a sudden, Matties has been disparaged...right...makes sense to me...

I guess it's time to close this thread.

[CincyHorseplayer]

you call that dropping the hammer ? Get real.......... I thought the piece was lacking..... it really didn't tell us anything? It appeared to me to be a teaser piece....... I fully expected there to be a link at the end to finish the interview or hit a website for more.

If you think that's dropping the hammer...... you are being a little sensitive don't you think?

Stick a camera in your face with about 5 minutes tops and get across your entire belief system off.Aaahh.Not happening.

[The Hawk]

Before PA closes this thread I'd like to make one point: Matties was questioned because he "only" used trainer patterns and race shapes. It's a reminder that some players over-analyze the handicapping part of the game and underestimate the importance of discipline. What I got from that video was that Matties is a master of the latter, which gives him the edge on a vast majority of players who spend all their time on their handicapping and little-to-no time on their betting.

[Charli125]

One guy talking smack and now he's been disparaged?

There were boatloads of supportive replies for the vast majority of this thread, until one guy comes along acting like a dick, and now all of a sudden, Matties has been disparaged...right...makes sense to me...

I guess it's time to close this thread.

Yes, it was only one guy came along and talked smack to him. He posted so much that it seemed like more than one. I just don't understand that kind of attitude.

My point is that we need more people like this that aren't afraid to come out and say they're winners. A few advertised winners would be great for this game.

[dav4463]

A lot of people have become jaded because of all the scam artists that send out the flyers promising riches beyond belief. When they hear about a legitimate winner; they are surprised. They wonder, "ok, what is he selling?"....

[Robert Fischer]

i don't know duke at all.

the controversy sounds bad. However if a guy really has talent, it's common for people to assume cheating. Lots of talented people throughout history have been accused of dealing w/ the supernatural or worse.

I don't know what happened with the form of those horses. In general I don't have a problem with a paid workout, but I don't agree with darkening form purely for the sake of wagering. Given the benefit of the doubt a very talented horseplayer/trainer would know how to


prep their horses (in races when necessary),
and know when their horse simply was up against the grain.
I don't object to the connections wagering with such information if there's not in fact sandbagging going on. That trainer Bart Cummings is a hero in Australia(and rightfully so), and he did a LOT of his training in races.

[andymays]

It sounds like there are at least a couple of people commenting in the thread that know Duke. Why don't we take them at their word that he is good at what he does? It sounds to me like he's the real deal.

[Fastracehorse]

One guy talking smack and now he's been disparaged?

There were boatloads of supportive replies for the vast majority of this thread, until one guy comes along acting like a dick, and now all of a sudden, Matties has been disparaged...right...makes sense to me...

I guess it's time to close this thread.

good for you

what if i really believe what i wrote?

and still do?

maybe a dick is synonomous with original thinking - ha ha ( and maybe you know it )

fffastt

[JustRalph]

good for you

what if i really believe what i wrote?

and still do?

maybe a dick is synonomous with original thinking - ha ha ( and maybe you know it )

fffastt

you know what they say about thinking with your dick

[TurfRuler]

Revealing one's talent brings out the worst in Fastracehorse@DRF. Especially if they are winners at this game.

[Relwob Owner]

This is a very interesting thread, and frankly, it explains quite well why many that actually have something to say ( which excludes the likes of Fastracehorse.....the absolute epitome of internet fraud ) have left internet conversations. Duke Matties's skills are getting questioned by the likes of some posters in this thread. To those of us that know Duke, as I do, this is laughable beyond belief. An all-time knee slapper. Why bother posting when jerks like Fastracehorse, a clown who spent four months on another website crying that I really didn't hit a Pick-6 ( which of course I did hit ), can question the likes of Duke. Sorry.....but it's just not worth it.

The world has changed.....it's no longer those that cannot do teach.....now it's those that can't do, criticize those that can, on the internet.


TLG,

You are right....tough to criticize someone off of such a short piece and also who seems to be held in such high regard in the handicapping circles by some people....since you know him, any thoughts on what he is like or what makes him good? Anyone like him seems to be pretty damn interesting to me.....

[sonnyp]

track bias, track bias, track bias ! paul and duke watch the races and make notes religiously. they evaluate track bias i.e. for or against speed, for or against closers, favorable inside, favorable outside etc.

they've proven to me on many occasions that horses coming off a series of superior efforts, and on a given day seems to lay over the field are, in fact, "beatable" if certain variables occur. if, in their estimation and according to their very astute figures, today's 1-2 shot had caught very favorable tracks which greatly contributed to that previous series of performances, and today was going to compete on a track that was totally "against" his running style, he becomes a "bet against". thus where 90% of the bettors are viewing this horse as a "free space" in the pic's, they're looking to beat him and take down the whole pool.

obviously, that greatly simplifies their entire effort, but it's a big part of it. they've repeatedly pointed out, for instance, odds on horses who's perceived trips would require them to be "outside" in the stretch drive on a track which, on that particular day, required the winner to finish in the 1 or 2 path. i would watch these huge favorites just flounder out in the 3 or 4 path and often lose ground from top of the stretch to the wire. to me, it's amazing how good a horse can look when it catches a favorable track and how horrible that same horse can be when the track is "against" him.

literally, some of these odds- on horses have no chance of winning, given the right set of circumstances.

with that being said, i still can't win, and very few players are willing to spend the time, make the effort and, above all else, ENDURE like these guys.

they have many losing days. i once asked duke "how long can you do this"?

he answered,"until i can't take the losing anymore".

[David-LV]

It sounds like there are at least a couple of people commenting in the thread that know Duke. Why don't we take them at their word that he is good at what he does? It sounds to me like he's the real deal.

Andy,
I know Duke well and I will tell you that he is the hardest working man and one of the most skilled horse players I have ever known in all my 52 years of playing the horses.

He started with almost nothing and earned every dime that he has made with hard work and long, long hours and many years in perfecting his skill.

There are geniuses in every field, and he and his brother Paul are the geniuses in the field of beating this game.

My hat is off to both Duke and Paul because they are shining examples of what can be accomplished with hard work and acquired skill.

___________
David-LV

[dnlgfnk]

"They've proven to me on many occasions that horses coming off a series of superior efforts, and on a given day seems to lay over the field are, in fact, "beatable" if certain variables occur"...

Of course. A horse records a better figure than his rivals, or winning margin, because the race scenario benefitted him that day, whether that be competition, placement on the track, the effects of pace, etc. As Beyer's "Charlie" in "My 50K Year" and "The Winning Horseplayer" reportedly said before these guys were probably born, "It's not how fast they run that counts, it's how they run fast". The overlays present themselves most obviously when these conditions are significantly different in a future race, because the crowd will always be obsessed with the finish of races, rather than all that came before, since understanding the factors influencing the finish requires too much effort.

After 30 years of my own intent race-watching, I would suggest that the perceptions of daily biases (I used to think the track changed from race to race at times) are really subtle effects of pace (not crude quarter- mile clockings...deceptive and often too far to explain certain outcomes), influenced by universally slower straightaways set against the mathematical benefit of ground saving turns--two tracks in one, really.

That being said, I do salute the intensive efforts of the subject in the video, and have no reason to dispute his success.

[dnlgfnk]

"universally slower straightaways"... the further one is inside, that is.

[andymays]

Andy,
I know Duke well and I will tell you that he is the hardest working man and one of the most skilled horse players I have ever known in all my 52 years of playing the horses.

He started with almost nothing and earned every dime that he has made with hard work and long, long hours and many years in perfecting his skill.

There are geniuses in every field, and he and his brother Paul are the geniuses in the field of beating this game.

My hat is off to both Duke and Paul because they are shining examples of what can be accomplished with hard work and acquired skill.

___________
David-LV

Thanks for information. :ThmbUp:

[Fastracehorse]

track bias, track bias, track bias ! paul and duke watch the races and make notes religiously. they evaluate track bias i.e. for or against speed, for or against closers, favorable inside, favorable outside etc.

they've proven to me on many occasions that horses coming off a series of superior efforts, and on a given day seems to lay over the field are, in fact, "beatable" if certain variables occur. if, in their estimation and according to their very astute figures, today's 1-2 shot had caught very favorable tracks which greatly contributed to that previous series of performances, and today was going to compete on a track that was totally "against" his running style, he becomes a "bet against". thus where 90% of the bettors are viewing this horse as a "free space" in the pic's, they're looking to beat him and take down the whole pool.

obviously, that greatly simplifies their entire effort, but it's a big part of it. they've repeatedly pointed out, for instance, odds on horses who's perceived trips would require them to be "outside" in the stretch drive on a track which, on that particular day, required the winner to finish in the 1 or 2 path. i would watch these huge favorites just flounder out in the 3 or 4 path and often lose ground from top of the stretch to the wire. to me, it's amazing how good a horse can look when it catches a favorable track and how horrible that same horse can be when the track is "against" him.

literally, some of these odds- on horses have no chance of winning, given the right set of circumstances.

with that being said, i still can't win, and very few players are willing to spend the time, make the effort and, above all else, ENDURE like these guys.

they have many losing days. i once asked duke "how long can you do this"?

he answered,"until i can't take the losing anymore".

Ron Gierkink does the Woodbine circuit for DRF for those that don't already know, and he is a huge bias player, and rarely do his choices based on biases do well for him

believe me, i know biases can be strong, i think they can be overemphasized

his best selections come from trip notes

sometimes at venues i think faves are burned, not only based on the bounce like u wrote about, but just because they are the fave

watch the p-4 for the graveyard of sure things

fffastt

[Saratoga_Mike]

Ron Gierkink does the Woodbine circuit for DRF for those that don't already know, and he is a huge bias player, and rarely do his choices based on biases do well for him
believe me, i know biases can be strong, i think they can be overemphasized

his best selections come from trip notes

sometimes at venues i think faves are burned, not only based on the bounce like u wrote about, but just because they are the fave

watch the p-4 for the graveyard of sure things

fffastt

Maybe Matties is a better overall handicapper/gambler.

[Fastracehorse]

Maybe Matties is a better overall handicapper/gambler.

be interesting to see what you think

fffastt

[the little guy]

Ron Gierkink does the Woodbine circuit for DRF for those that don't already know, and he is a huge bias player, and rarely do his choices based on biases do well for him

believe me, i know biases can be strong, i think they can be overemphasized

his best selections come from trip notes

sometimes at venues i think faves are burned, not only based on the bounce like u wrote about, but just because they are the fave

watch the p-4 for the graveyard of sure things

fffastt


A strong contender for the stupidest post of the year.

Keep it up and you can stack that deck even more heavily in your favor.

[Fastracehorse]

A strong contender for the stupidest post of the year.

Keep it up and you can stack that deck even more heavily in your favor.

i can do better

fffastt

[David-LV]

Ron Gierkink does the Woodbine circuit for DRF for those that don't already know, and he is a huge bias player, and rarely do his choices based on biases do well for him

believe me, i know biases can be strong, i think they can be overemphasized

his best selections come from trip notes

sometimes at venues i think faves are burned, not only based on the bounce like u wrote about, but just because they are the fave

watch the p-4 for the graveyard of sure things

fffastt

Your posts appear to be written by someone that is a born loser and you can't believe that it is possible that there are people out there that have beat the odds with hard work and more knowledge then you will ever have beating this game.

All your posts reek with jealousy, GROW UP.

________
David-LV

[Fastracehorse]

Your posts appear to be written by someone that is a born loser and you can't believe that it is possible that there are people out there that have beat the odds with hard work and more knowledge then you will ever have beating this game.

All your posts reek with jealousy, GROW UP.

________
David-LV

sounds like you are projecting to me

i speaketh my mind

as for the growing up part, i've heard that b4, usually from the opposite sex though

ffffastt

[Rwahi1]

Well........One more person to the ignore list! :bang: