If your top choice is overbet, do you skip the race?

[Stillriledup]

Hey guys, i want to have a discussion on what your strategy is if your top pick is below what you will accept as fair value. If you really like a horse and figure him to be about 2-1, and he's 6-5 with 1 minute to post, do you actually bet against him? Do you say "i like him so much that i'm betting him anyway?" Do you skip the race and bet nobody? Would you bet someone else who you feel provides better value?

[dav4463]

No because my third and fourth choice are frequently more profitable than my top two picks due to extreme longshots.

[Gapfire]

If I handicap a race, and I like the race I don't skip the race, I look for value amongst my 2,3 &4 contenders.

[harntrox]

I look at the next race and determine how likely it is for the favorite to get beat in both.

1.) Look at the *next* race to bet horizontal,
And decide to buy a double if there is some way to create value, or triple to attempt to create value by singling 2 races and buying the field in the 3rd.

A / AB / ALL
A / ALL / AB

2.) Next, in the current race, I look for a vertical exotic with the best 1-3 contenders who can beat the favorite.

With insurance, you can cover both exotic bets : horiz. + vert. (winning only one) and still maintain a profit.

Backwheeling the favorite in a superfecta (even a dime) will cover your loss for the entire ticket and might 'pad your bankroll' a bit too. (theres your TVG Ken Rudolph quote for that day ... :lol: unintentional comedy at its best)

BCD / A / BCDE / ALL

The frustration of being beat by a head and not covering the 1st/2nd post time favorite is now a thing of the past.

[Overlay]

Between confidence in my odds line for the full field (not just my top choice), and (especially) if I can identify the reason why the top choice is below my fair odds (such as the public overbetting a factor that may be a positive for the horse, but not to the extent that the public believes), I wouldn't hesitate a moment to look for (and bet) value elsewhere. (If you absolutely don't want to get off your underlaid top choice, you can also always check exotic prices to see if any combinations involving the horse are being relatively overlooked in comparison to their chances.)

[thaskalos]

If I handicap a race, and I like the race I don't skip the race, I look for value amongst my 2,3 &4 contenders.Would you bet the same amount on the overlaid 2nd, 3rd, or 4th contender as you would if you were betting on your number 1 pick...or would you reduce the wager to compensate for the less likely possibility of having your 2nd, 3rd, or 4th choice win?

[Robert Fischer]

Hey guys, i want to have a discussion on what your strategy is if your top pick is below what you will accept as fair value. If you really like a horse and figure him to be about 2-1, and he's 6-5 with 1 minute to post, do you actually bet against him? Do you say "i like him so much that i'm betting him anyway?" Do you skip the race and bet nobody? Would you bet someone else who you feel provides better value?

hell yes, I skip the race.

As was referred to by Dav4463, If I have an single-race exotic ticket and I like another horse in the sequence who is a huge overlay, then yea I will consider playing. Particularly in a big field with another low-priced favorite who I know will not finish(see Life At Ten) on that specific ticket(with my favorite and longshot).
If it doesn't fit these specific requirements the pools won't see a dime from me.
I play like barry bonds, babe ruth or ted williams(not in terms of talent but in approach) = I demand a fat pitch if I will swing. Bonds will forever be known to baseball fans as the disgusting POS he was... However, to students of hitting(an oxymoron these days?) Bonds will always be known for his 2004 season. He walked 232 times and played the most perfect season any hitter has ever played.(*clearly arguments could be made that Ruth and Williams had their similar seasons without the benefit of powerful performance boosts and thus had a greater difficulty 'adjusted figs etc...')
Horse racing is the same as hitting, except that you can't get "called" strikes... - Even if you pass a huge edge in a race it isn't counted against you. - THe Exception is professional players: If you must earn a certain amount for living expenses there is a time limitation imposed on you, and therefore the more you pass "edge" races(and to a lesser extent, the more races and racing dates fly by on the calendar) the more pressure builds and the chance of failure increases.

[PaceAdvantage]

Would you bet someone else who you feel provides better value?In a heartbeat.

[thaskalos]

In a heartbeat.PA...I have a serious question for you.

I know that you would bet a horse other than your top pick if the price was right, because I saw you bet that 45-1 horse in the Breeders Cup.

My question is this:

What percentage of your normal wager would you bet on a horse who was a huge overlay, but who also did not have a very good chance of winning the race?

[PaceAdvantage]

PA...I have a serious question for you.

I know that you would bet a horse other than your top pick if the price was right, because I saw you bet that 45-1 horse in the Breeders Cup.

My question is this:

What percentage of your normal wager would you bet on a horse who was a huge overlay, but who also did not have a very good chance of winning the race?I bet a percentage of total bank on every overlay that comes my way. Thus, to answer your question, I would bet 100% of my normal wager on your example horse.

[thaskalos]

I bet a percentage of total bank on every overlay that comes my way. Thus, to answer your question, I would bet 100% of my normal wager on your example horse.
I have a different philosophy on this matter.

I reduce my bets somewhat, according to my estimate of their winning chances, because I feel that I need a safeguard against the longer losing streaks I am likely to endure as a result of betting on horses other than the ones I consider to be the best in the race.

[PaceAdvantage]

I have a different philosophy on this matter.

I reduce my bets somewhat, according to my estimate of their winning chances, because I feel that I need a safeguard against the longer losing streaks I am likely to endure, as a result of betting on horses other than the ones I consider to be the best in the race.That's why I only wager .5% on any one horse. If a horse is a stickout for me AND an overlay, I will wager 1% of my bankroll on that horse, or twice my normal amount.

But if it's an overlay and NOT my top choice, I will still wager my normal .5%

[Valuist]

If your top choice is overbet, do you leave them out of your multirace bets?

I would say they definitely should only be used defensively, as "C" type horses on a small number of tickets.

[cj's dad]

If you really like the horse to win @ 3/1 and he drops to even money why not (if you were betting $20 to win) play 2 $10 doubles or 1 $5 P3 ticket with a 1x2x2 strategy ?

[OTM Al]

If you really like the horse to win @ 3/1 and he drops to even money why not (if you were betting $20 to win) play 2 $10 doubles or 1 $5 P3 ticket with a 1x2x2 strategy ?

I'd add to this, the exacta as well. A horse overbet in the win pool may still be retaining your estimated value in other pools, especially at smaller tracks. I've seen huge skews between the win pool ods and what shows up in doubles and exactas. So I would look at those and if they are also no good, then pass.

[oddsmaven]

If my pick is going off at a short price that I don't believe he deserves to be, I'll pass...I would not bet a different horse...my picks are arrived at because I judge them to have a "winning edge", so I stick with that edge or pass.

Others may be comfortable acting on blunders by the crowd, but that's not my style, unless it's a mistake that I anticipated beforehand.

[Gapfire]

Would you bet the same amount on the overlaid 2nd, 3rd, or 4th contender as you would if you were betting on your number 1 pick...or would you reduce the wager to compensate for the less likely possibility of having your 2nd, 3rd, or 4th choice win?

Perhaps, this would depend on how overlaid the horse is. Less probability, but the higher odds compensate.

[MitchS]

Good thread and some great responses! As we can see by the responses already it's kind of an individual thing but I think this subject matter hits the nail right on the head for many at least could make the difference between a profitable and unprofitable year.

Here's my thoughts. One mans opinion...

Its no secret that I'm a value player. Your first choice, second choice, third choice etc, I mean it really doesn't matter to me. I always look for value in each and every race as I'm sure that whats we all do.

The important thing for me at least is the composition of the race itself. Is there a dominating horse perceived by the public in this particular race? Why? Is his running running style suited for today's race shape projection? That's the first questions I ask myself. If yes and this runner is dominating my own personal odds line and figs, is also by my estimation in a race situation with a high probability to win? If that's the case, then I'll need to sit this race out if the odds are to low. I won't ever in these situations bet, say my... 2nd, 3rd etc.. choices just because there is value on those runners. If you do this, In my opinion, you'll be trying to beat every odds on runner and playing in every race. Sure you'll get burnt every once in a while while that big value horse crossing the wire but in the long run, in my opinion, you'll need to sit those types of races out! We all know that racing is situational. We look to be patient and find those situations were you have an edge with a higher probability for your 2nd, 3rd even 4th choice value horses to cross the wire a little less uncontested.

Happy upcoming Turkey day to everyone.
M

[Fingal]

It is a highly individual thing, & for those who can make the value argument work for them, more power to them. In terms of straight win betting, would I pass the race if the odds are below a certain point ( while allowing for late money ). Definitely. Now since it's the day of simulcasting & ADWs with racing available across the country almost every day, why force a bet ? Why go shopping ?

For those that get Michael Pizzola's handicapping emails, he closes with the tag line of " let the bet make you." To me that means don't need it to happen, don't need to make it happen, just LET it happen.

Patience is a virtue. And it also leads to a healthy bankroll.

[Gapfire]

It is a highly individual thing, & for those who can make the value argument work for them, more power to them. In terms of straight win betting, would I pass the race if the odds are below a certain point ( while allowing for late money ). Definitely. Now since it's the day of simulcasting & ADWs with racing available across the country almost every day, why force a bet ? Why go shopping ?

For those that get Michael Pizzola's handicapping emails, he closes with the tag line of " let the bet make you." To me that means don't need it to happen, don't need to make it happen, just LET it happen.

Patience is a virtue. And it also leads to a healthy bankroll.

I like to find races where I believe 4 or more horses have almost equal shots at the win. I always have a top choice. If that horse is overbet I have no qualms about betting the others.

[Dave Schwartz]

I like to find races where I believe 4 or more horses have almost equal shots at the win. I always have a top choice. If that horse is overbet I have no qualms about betting the others.

That is what I would call a "Grade A" race. In such a race, you can bet it almost any way you want and make money. Exactas, trifectas, supers, even win bets on all the horses are likely to be profitable in the long run.

Of course, I ran into one very odd version of that race the other day... a race with 4 horses between 2/1 and 5/2! This race would not, of course, qualify. ;)

Dave

[Gapfire]

That is what I would call a "Grade A" race. In such a race, you can bet it almost any way you want and make money. Exactas, trifectas, supers, even win bets on all the horses are likely to be profitable in the long run.



Dave

Seems to me that these are the only races to get involved in. This is where patience comes in. With the multitude of tracks available, there should be enough action to keep even the most hungry action hounds satisfied.

[Dave Schwartz]

You are correct.

In Grade A races the betting approach is so simple that even a novice can be profitable. It may seem like a provocative statement but even a mediocre handicapping process will come close to being profitable in these kinds of races. (Okay, the approach DOES have to be grounded in reality.)

In contrast, almost every race - certainly 3 out of 4 - is playable to the creative professional-level handicapper. There is almost always a good key horse to be found among your top contenders.

For example, suppose that you have 4 contenders in an 8-horse field:

2/1 - favorite
5/2 - 2nd choice
7/2 - 3rd choice
12/1- 6th choice


Simply by virtue of being among your contenders, the 12/1 is going to be close to break even or better. So, how to bet this race?

Imagine keying the 12/1 to the other three in a one-way exacta, or look for the best bet between the 2/1, 5/2 and 7/2 and bet a reverse exacta.

This is a simple example but actually a pretty sophisticated play. And it must be wagered for small money. You probably lose this bet but in the long run it may be profitable. (Obviously, individual mileage will vary.)


Dave

[GaryG]

I don't make a formal odds line, but I do rank the contenders in every race. I will not pass up a 2nd choice at 8-1 or a 3rd choice at 12-1.

[Valuist]

If you really like the horse to win @ 3/1 and he drops to even money why not (if you were betting $20 to win) play 2 $10 doubles or 1 $5 P3 ticket with a 1x2x2 strategy ?

In this case, I would NOT play him at all. IMO, the difference between 3-1 and 1-1 is just too big and that would be too big of an underlay. I realize that underlays do win plenty of races but when you cash you don't want to feel ripped off. We are already having to deal with usurous takeout.

[erikeepper]

I personally have been profitable using pretty much the Dave's example (if I understood it correctly), meaning that let say I have my top 3 contenders and my favorite and my 2nd favorite are BOTH underlays but my 3rd favorite is an overlay according to my estimates.

Well, I wont play it to win because it is very likely my estimates are wrong (public is pretty smart) and my estimates to the favorite and 2nd favorite should have been a bit higher and a bit smaller for the 3rd choice. Anyway, I will still take my 3rd choice, which seems like an overlay in the win pool, and play quinella combined with my top and 2nd choice. From my stats I can see that either my top or 2nd choice will be in top 2 about 75%+ so this is pretty nice quinella strategy.

I only play to win my own favorite or 2nd choice. This seems to work so I am afraid to change it :P Also the win pool here where I live is so ridiculously small that the odds will drop sharply if I start betting 15-1 shots to win.

Oh, and I dont bet to win unless my own estimate is greater than random chance (ie 12 horses in a race = random chance is 8.3 %).

[serp]

I bet my top pick and only cancel if the odds are less than 1-1 close to post. I don't make a lot of bets per day and only do win bets so when I feel a race is worth betting I trust my top pick.

[JohnGalt1]

If my pick is going off at a short price that I don't believe he deserves to be, I'll pass...I would not bet a different horse...my picks are arrived at because I judge them to have a "winning edge", so I stick with that edge or pass.

Others may be comfortable acting on blunders by the crowd, but that's not my style, unless it's a mistake that I anticipated beforehand.

Ditto!

[HUSKER55]

Job one is to determine who should win the race and job 2 is how to make a profit with that knowlege. More often than not your picks will be with the crowd which means hello exactas or skip the race.

I think your question is dependent upon YOUR OWN strike rate. If you are at 40% then pass or play exactas and try to get 4:1.

If your strike is 20% then go with your second choice.

Me, I never bet against who I think the winner will be.

just my own preference