Buying Software

[Jaguar]

How to buy the best software- because there are so many newcomers and new "lurkers" on this excellent board, here are a few guidelines for folks considering spending their hard-earned dollars on a horse program.

1. Decide what type of software best meets your needs. There are 3 categories of horse programs on the market:

a. Standard speed and pace discs- these are infinite in number. Fast and easy to use, these methods are favored by people who like to spend as little time as possible handicapping and/or by folks who like to do most of their own handicapping.

Over the years, the racing press has portrayed the thoroughbred world as a "speed game", and many software developers take advantage of this mindset.

b. Enhanced speed and pace discs- you get standard speed and pace projections as well as some jockey/trainer analysis, and usually a few graphs.

Netcapper is a popular program in this category, employing 18 different factors in examining each horse's past performance record. Equisim is an excellent program under this heading, continually being improved.

c. Full-bore "expert systems"or A. I. programs, which attack the handicapping puzzle with dozens of algorithms, searching for winning patterns for each type of race, at each track played. These programs are usually huge and memory intensive, though in isolated cases they have been streamlined insofar as possible.

Top line discs range from $350-$2,000 in cost and can carry significant data expenses. New neural net technology has taken the top end of the handicapping world by storm. Using these high end discs requires great patience, since the user is compelled to wait for an animal which the software finds compatible with the model for that type of race.

Every handicapper has different needs and expectations regarding handicapping methodology. Some horse players are content with speed figures and will aggressively play every race, telling their friends at OTB, "speed wins".

Other bettors need to see detailed graphs of the most subtle patterns at a track and avoid betting most races- looking only for stickouts, or searching for value.

This is a great time to be involved in horse handicapping because some of the software available is truly awesome.- Be sure to insist on a 30-day money back guarantee. Also, ask to see 3 days of the program's output. Any developer who is legit will let you see output, though they may ask you to pay a nominal fee for it(this is to weed out the time-wasters and merely curious, who have no intention of buying the program).

Finally, beware the lugubrious naysayers, the disappointed losers who hate to see anyone win money- "you can't win at this game", "you'll lose in the end", "horse players die broke, you'll end up eating out of a dumpster behind Burger King".

At the end of a 9-race card, at 4:30 in the afternoon, you'll notice that among the folks heading home from the track, a few are smiling. If you visit the track regularly, you'll notice that these same people are smiling almost every day.

Regardless of the software they use, these horse players have found a way to eliminate losers from their play, and are betting almost exclusively on winning animals. Once a bettor finds a way to win and to win consistently, it's a life-changing experience.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Speed Figure]

Jag,

Can you tell me where each program that you have used should be placed. On your A, B, or C level.

[JimG]

In my mind, buying software depends on how you want to use the software. I consider Equisim and HSH two excellent programs. They both require a committment to learning what the software can or cannot do for you. HTR is also a really good program, especially if you want to feed and maintain a database with some of their velocity figs.

I think to get the most out of software, you need to spend a lot of time with your program of choice learning what it can do to help you handicap/win at the races.

If your buying software in the hopes of just betting the top selections, save your money.

I love horse racing and tinkering on the computer in my spare time, so trying handicapping software is a hobby/labor of love for me. I think there are a few of us on the board (Lefty?) that fall into this category. It certainly is not for everyone and if you are already a long term winner at the races without software, I do not recommend getting involved with it.

Jim

PS...I'm not competely sold on the neural net stuff. To date it has not been my cup of tea.

[Jaguar]

Speed Figure, I'm not sure that I can give you a satisfactory answer to your question.

I have been handicapping via computer since 1983, beginning with a Radio Shack TRS80 and using cassette tapes for memory storage.(How on earth did we get along without a hard drive?)

Having used and given away or discarded so many obsolete horse programs that I can't even remember remember their names, it just shows how forgettable most of that old DOS junk was.

Around 1994-5 the better discs improved in handicapping efficacy and became convenient to use under Windows 95. Still, even the most costly horse programs were not that great.

The last 3 years or so have seen tremendous leaps in handicapping technology, by which I mean methods of analysis. The track models available to the horse player are so defined and so comprehensive that he or she has a significant edge.

I have mentioned the 3 best products available to handicappers in earlier posts of mine. Since I don't have any connection to software programs or software developers, I want to avoid the appearance of favoritism.

Also, since people tend to have such strong likes and dislikes in handicapping program format, the disc I find congenial might be considered unusable by a person inclined to favor a certain style of graph or data table.

What it boils down to is that everybody has different needs and expectations in regard to handicapping programs. Some bettors are content with a Ford Taurus, while other horse players yearn for a Ferrari. The Ferrari just allows you to reach your goal alot faster.

Unfortunately, there is no software rating service in this game. But, intelligent, knowledgeable guys like Game Theory,Joe Zambuto, and Nathan- can probably shed some light on new developments in the world of horse software, if asked to do so.

Dave Schwartz is also a very talented programmer and handicapper who develops highly sophisticated handicapping methods and is generous with his time.

Basically, If I were shopping for a handicapping program, I would look for a product that uses the new neural nets. (Awesome!)

All The Best,

Jaguar

[CapperLou]

Jaguar:

Hey Man, you are RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!!!!

I agree with you on your long post about the different types of programs.

I do not want to mention any programs here, but will tell you that in this day and age everything is about picking up patterns and the few programs that have that ability (A.I.) will surely help one's ROI once one learns how to use one.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Speed Figure]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by CapperLou
[B]Jaguar:

I do not want to mention any programs here, but will tell you that in this day and age everything is about picking up patterns and the few programs that have that ability (A.I.) will surely help one's ROI once one learns how to use one.

CapperLou,

Why not mention the program's that you feel are good. We know the fake guys from the real guys that post about software.

[GameTheory]

I think the whole point of this forum is for users of software to talk about it -- and to name names.

[JustRalph]

I am in the computer support business. I have tried only a few apps. But Equisim stands out in my book. You wanted names.

I named a name........ Equisim

If you are looking at software......and I agree with JimG on this point........and you are computer inclined....Equisim is a ball to not only play the ponies with..........but the latest version that is about to come out of Beta is an incredible leap forward. For Computer types like me.....it is a ball. If you are not inclined to play with computers and give up easy, it may be a challenge. But the ES forum usually takes the learning curve out of it. The guys on that forum are great at bringing along newbies. There are some sharp cappers over there too. I consider myself a pretty sharp computer type, but some of the guys on the ES forum put me to shame when it comes to using ES. You haven't had any real fun until you are have been in the ES chat room with about ten other guys playing a track together. When a high price horse comes in and ES has turned the whole room onto it it can be a blast. This is the real way to learn. I think some of that may occur again this winter. I hope so. You know it's a good app when ten guys pull down about 10G or more in one race while in the chat room. I look forward to this winter.

[Zaf]

I have to agree with Ralph 100%. I have been a Equisim user since March. Its excellent right out of the box, but if you want to take the time to learn all of its features you have a very powerful comprehensive handicapping tool.

Nathan (Handle) the creator is A1 as far as tech support goes. Any time there is a question he is right there for you, time and time again.

A free demo of version 3.5 is available and is an excellent program. I am currently using the beta 4.0 version which is absolutely incredible.

ZAFONIC

[Speed Figure]

That's what i'm talking about. If you like a program say why you like it!

P.S. What are "Expert Systems & A. I. Programs"

[hdcper]

Like Ralph and Zafonic, I think Equisim is a fantastic program!!!

I too, am currently using the beta 4.0 version and believe it provides a set of handicapping tools second to none.

Take a look, it is worth your while.


Hdcper

[Jaguar]

Speed Figure, "expert system" programs were the precursors to the neural net- or "A. I."- methods so in vogue among computer handicappers.

In other words, prior to the time when neural net methodology became applicable in handicapping, expert system programs commanded the heights. To this day, expert system analysis remains a viable and very effective approach to solving the puzzle.

For example, while most sophistcated horse players will freely acclaim the value of the new neural nets, the program I use, Multi-Strats, is an excellent example of the power inherent in a comprehensive expert system. Last updated in 1995, Multi-Strats had 9 winners on top at Philadelphia Park on a 10-race card on April 16th of this year. -Such is the strength of first class models.

Admittedly, this performance is not such a barn burner considering that at Philadelphia there is tremendous consistency over the course of the year, since many of the same trainers, jockeys, and horses are competing against one another on a regular basis.

An expert system takes a series of questions, or algorithms- Multi-Strats, for example, uses 25 algorithms- and applies them to each horses past performance record.

The program then assigns a value- or "score"- to each one of these factors for each horse. These "scores" or totals are then added up and a final value or rating is assigned to each animal.
The runners with the higher scores are the projected money winners.

After the race is over, the handicapper tells the program which horse won. Then, when the user re-handicaps the race, or handicaps a new race-because the program recognizes which factors rated the animal strongly- the program assigns new statistical "weights" or values to those factors.

Consequently, when a new race of the same type is handicapped, the program's output is biased toward the entrant which shows a racing history similar to the winner of the earlier race.

Once more than 100 races of a certain type- say 6f Allowance sprints- have been recorded, the models for that track become quite accurate and a horse which doesn't measure up to that particular model becomes a "throwout" for the handicapper.

Summing up expert systems, they have terrific capabilities, but these types of programs require very well designed algorithms, - and plenty of them.

Artificial Intelligence programs go a step or two beyond expert systems, using very subtle neural network analysis to discover patterns relating to winning horses.

Instead of starting out with questions, or formulas, or algorithms which are assigned in a rigid format, A. I. discs examine vast amounts of data contained in a horse's racing record and then sift through that information- looking for patterns. These patterns might be subtle and fairly insignificant, or, they might jump off the computer screen -as in the case of a trainer who often makes the same moves with his horses and has had considerable success.

In a similar vein, as with expert systems, once the handicapper instructs the A. I. program as to which horse won, the program weights the winning patterns accordingly.

Because of a significant breakthrough in neural net technology, the new nets are capable of handicapping a field of horses by comparing all the entrants in a race to each other. Also, these new nets are fast.

In contrast, 5 years ago the nets available limited an A. I. program's effectiveness by allowing only two animals to be analyzed at a time. Slow and awkward, and sometimes leading to erroneus output.

Once a handicapper sees the powerful analysis offered by the horse programs which have appeared in the last 3 or 4 years, they are certain to develop a new interest in this great game(which is really- of course- just a business).

All The Best,

Jaguar

[hurrikane]

I have seen equism in action and know several people who use it.
I think it is a great program. I'm an HTR guy, obviously. If I wasn't I would probably use equism, HSH, or maybe something of my own.

I'm not sure anyone at HTR uses the software the same as the next person. There are times we end up on the same horse, many times. A lot of times for different reasons. I like them for the db side of things. Allows me to validate things and play confidently. I believe confidence may be part of the difference between being a winning or losing horseplayer.

I stay with HTR for the people involved in the program. I don't think you could put together a more positive, motivated group of handicappers.

I'll also say I have great respect for Dave Swartz and hope to see his software in action some day. I'm sure it is very impressive. Maybe he'll have a half off sale for christmas. :D

[CapperLou]

Speed Figure:

I tried to post last night, but the server was having problems. You have been on this board long enough to know that I am not one of those "fakers" you mention. I resent the implication--if you check my posts since I have been on this board you would realizethat I am for real.

As far as A. I. programs are concerned; I would suggest you read some of the posts by my board friend Jaguar. He has mentioned a few A.I. programs and I am in agreement with him.

I know many outdated programs are still being sold that have to do with speed figures and I would caution you against those unless you can find a particular track where they work. If you try to use one of those outdated programs for simulcast play--you will surely find that in time you will lose your lunch money & if you push you will also lose your dinner money.

The only programs IMO that will help you improve your ROI today are the "neural net" ones. If you learn how to use one of the better ones (that Jaguar has mentioned in several posts) you will increase your winnings and if you are selective enough and patient enough--you can actually become a WINNER!!

People who see me every day at the track often notice that I'm happy and smiling and in good spirits. There are just a few of us at Calder or any other track. Contrast that to all the people I see every day who are disgusted, swearing like troopers and just plain losers and they even look beaten up etc.

All the best,

CapperLou

[aaron]

Multi-Stats
What is the website for Multi-Stats? What is the cost of the downloads for Multi-Stats and Equisim?From the information given on these products,I think any player would be interested in at least checking them out.Thanks for the presentation.

[JimG]

CapperLou, you faker <g>

How have you been? Do you still use TVATT software from Matt Thomas or are you now into the neural net program like Thorobrain?

I never bought the Thomas software but recently noticed FastFred Pro (What a name, huh) software includes PCR and Form ratings from Scott's book in it. Any thoughts from anyone on FFPro?

Jim

[CapperLou]

JimG::

How are you doing Jim? If you are using the two programs you mention and know where and how to use each one---you will surely become a WINNER at the races!!

I do not know about FastFredPro--I've heard of it--that's all. If you want the real deal on TVATT--get it from Mat Thomas at Thomas Racing Systems. It's the original and genuine one!! And it still (Scott's work) works at certain tracks as I have told you in PM's before. Nuff said---you are on your own from here!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Getting ready to go to Calder right now!! Have a profitable day Jim and everyone else on board!!

[JimG]

Originally posted by CapperLou
JimG::

How are you doing Jim? If you are using the two programs you mention and know where and how to use each one---you will surely become a WINNER at the races!!

I do not know about FastFredPro--I've heard of it--that's all. If you want the real deal on TVATT--get it from Mat Thomas at Thomas Racing Systems. It's the original and genuine one!! And it still (Scott's work) works at certain tracks as I have told you in PM's before. Nuff said---you are on your own from here!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. Getting ready to go to Calder right now!! Have a profitable day Jim and everyone else on board!!


Lou,

I've got more software than I do time <g>. Best of luck to you at Calder. Just follow Karlskorner to the window, you'll do fine.

As for me, back to work. One day I'll get time (and money) to play the races again, I just know it<g>.

Jim

[karlskorner]

Read your post before I left for the track this morning. I know someone who has been using it for the past 3 years, so I paid a visit.

He claims it's no more or less than an information tool, not found elsewhere. I wrote down what he liked about it. It's broken down into about 6-7 catagories, Form which includes form cyle, turn times and days with workouts, class is broken down into catagories, it has speed points same as BRIS, he dosen't pay to much attention to the Pace figures it generates, as he does his own and their about the same. There is something generated known as Energy Dist. which he likes very much, the turn time figures it generates for 1/.4 and 1/2 are useful. Then there is a section covering Z's in the running lines and double diagonials (which I use), something if BRIS last 3 speed figures increase by 5 or more, which he likes and lastly there is a thing on Trainers if they made 4 changes since the last race, it doesn't happen often but over the weekend he caught a $40.00 horse because of it.
That's all I can remeber

[TonyK@HSH]

I've been using software developed by Dave S for many years now. He provides excellent customer service and quality products. For those interested in A.I., Dave's HSH does contain a feature known as the 'ANTS'. I can't say that it is A.I in the purist sense, but it is POWERFUL. HSH is full of features that allow users to attack races in many ways. I don't even experiment with many of them....the ANTS consistently keep me in the cashiers line.
Maybe Dave can chime in with a little explanation of the ANTS.

Good luck

Tony

[Zaf]

Originally posted by aaron
Multi-Stats
What is the website for Multi-Stats? What is the cost of the downloads for Multi-Stats and Equisim?From the information given on these products,I think any player would be interested in at least checking them out.Thanks for the presentation.

Equisim uses BRIS OR TSN Files. Bris files cost $1.00 per card and TSN cost .50 per card. You can also use Bris/TSN Multicaps/Procaps which are a little more expensive. TSN has a monthly unlimited plan which I believe is $59.95.

ZAFONIC

[socantra]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Read your post before I left for the track this morning. I know someone who has been using it for the past 3 years, so I paid a visit.

He claims it's no more or less than an information tool, not found elsewhere. I wrote down what he liked about it. It's broken down into about 6-7 catagories, Form which includes form cyle, turn times and days with workouts, class is broken down into catagories, it has speed points same as BRIS, he dosen't pay to much attention to the Pace figures it generates, as he does his own and their about the same. There is something generated known as Energy Dist. which he likes very much, the turn time figures it generates for 1/.4 and 1/2 are useful. Then there is a section covering Z's in the running lines and double diagonials (which I use), something if BRIS last 3 speed figures increase by 5 or more, which he likes and lastly there is a thing on Trainers if they made 4 changes since the last race, it doesn't happen often but over the weekend he caught a $40.00 horse because of it.
That's all I can remeber

Quirren Speed Points, Pace figures are classic Brohammer, form cycle analysis is Scott, PCR's are only one number, and also a little Danny Holmes thrown in. Its a nice crunching tool from several directions, does an odds line which you can control by weighting the different categories. I don't use it often because it doesn't really fit my handicapping style, and won't let me pick individual pacelines, but its not a bad tool for the price ($!!0?), and uses either ITS, BRIS, TSN or TRACKMASTER data files. Definitely not a Black Box, but doesn't pretend to be.

Socantra.........

[Dave Schwartz]

Socantra,

Who is Danny Holmes?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[witchdoctor]

Dave,
Holmes wrote 10 Steps to Winning. Published by LibertyPublishing copywrite 1987. at time I saw it, it was being offered by American Turf Monthly.

[Dave Schwartz]

Doc,

Is it a worthwhile read? Would you recommend it?

Dave

[socantra]

10 Steps to Winning by Danny Holmes is a full handicapping procedure, pace oriented, based on Winning At the Track software or the Talbout Pace Calculator. Liberty also published Winning At the Track.

Holmes also put a lot of emphasis on winning patterns, like surprise early or late speed, diagonals or double diagonals and "Z" pattern, plus trainer moves like Masa's Karma moves.

Not a bad read. Used to only be $10. Nothing you haven't heard before though.

socantra.......

[Dave Schwartz]

Socantra,

Thanks. Perhaps I will check my favorite used bookstore...

Dave

[delayjf]

What are diagonals/ double diagonals and the Z pattern?

[BillW]

Originally posted by delayjf
What are diagonals/ double diagonals and the Z pattern?

delayjf,

I remember karlskorner posting about these. Try a search and see what you get.

Bill

[Larry Hamilton]

Z patterns come from one of my oldest books. Will look it up shortly. In the mean time--z-patterns are catch up and drop back patterns from the horses last running line. For instance, 1st call, 5 back, then closes to 2 back at the second call, then loses once more to 6 back at the top of the stretch and finally finishes 1 back. What you are identifying is horses with "moves" within the race.

Biggest ticket I every hit was on a z pattern.

[karlskorner]

Some handicappers consider the "double diagonal" as a clue that a horse is moving into top form. It measures position in the field not lengths.
Diagonal #1 is improvement from 2nd call of 2nd previous race to 3rd call in1st previous race to final call in last race
Diagonal #2 is improvement from 1st call of 2nd previous race to 2nd call in 1st previous race to 3rd call in last race
Double Diagonal- improving pattern in both Diagonals

Z pattern improved position (lengths behind) from 3rd call to finish after showing improvement between 1st and 2nd call, then falling further off pace between the 2nd and 3rd call. 2 "Z"'s in last 2 races almost as good as the Chinese Double.

[Tom]

Z patterns, double diagonals, bid, hung,......three of my favorites.

[socantra]

Originally posted by Tom
Z patterns, double diagonals, bid, hung,......three of my favorites.

Do you use them in any systematic way? If so, what are the mutuels like these days? "Z" pattern used to get nice mutuels years ago, but seems to me like it tightened up, like original Sartin figures. Maybe it was just my perceprtion that everything went south at the same time. Probably just me that went south in the early 90's.

I tend to just lump all that sort of thing, along with stretch gains, moves within the race, jockey changes, blinkers, distance & surface changes, etc. together under the blanket plus factor "Karma" moves, courtesy Jim Mazzur. I realize that's a bit of an expansion of Mazur's idea, but I rely mostly on newer Sartin stuff, so I don't really independently quantify a lot of other things.

Nice to be reminded though. I'm starting to look for those things again.

socantra.....

[LOU M.]

What is Nspace?

[CapperLou]

"Nspace"

Jaguar will give you the details, but all I can tell you is that it is"out there"--very expensive, cutting edge A.I. & very, very good according to everyone who has it--and there are not many who will pay that much for it ($1,200).

Let Jaguar give you the highlights!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[LOU M.]

Thanks, you've peaked my interest.

[Tom]

No systematic ways - just use them as part of my evaluation of current form-always looking for reasons to go back for a better paceline if I think improvment is coming today. I never bet only on any of those things.

[Jaguar]

Lou, you might want to check out RACECOM's website for info.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[analyzer]

It seems NSPACE is not software for sale, it is a computer sold with the software installed on it. It was explained to me the price of the computer $1800.00 is the total price forever including data to run the program. I am still attempting to get information clarified but it is my understanding the program advises which races to play and in what way you should play. I do not use the program nor am I affiliated in any way with Racecom but I am curious as a result of things being said about it. If anyone can clarify the issue more I would appreciate it. I am going to call again to clarify and I may try their offer for a days report for all tracks to see for myself.

[GameTheory]

The word on RaceCom is to stay far far away.

Do a search for "racecom" and read the old posts....