Juan Carlos "the magician" Guerrero strikes again!

[thaskalos]

A very educational race took place yesterday (Monday) at Philly Park, which also illustrates one of the main problems that our favorite sport faces in the current era.

In Monday's 6th race, the 9/5 favorite was a horse named Hunter's Score, who was usually a consistent sort - often finishing in the money while running "Beyers" in the 52-57 range.

When he made his return from a 3 month layoff this September the 3rd, however, something seemed terrible wrong with the horse. At odds of 3-1 in a field of 7,500 claimers, he didn't run a lick - without a visable excuse - braking 6th by 2, tiring to last by 11 at the (slow) half mile, and finishing the 6 1/2 furlong sprint 9th and last, beaten by 22 lengths...while earning a "Beyer" of 4.

It would have been easy to conclude that something seriousy wrong had transpired with Hunter's Score, causing us to throw him out as a serious contender of a subsequent race...but something very interesting took place which demanded a closer look; the horse was claimed by trainer "extraordinaire" Juan Carlos Guerrero.

In his next start, the horse showed up in the same 7,500 claiming tag as before, and this time ran an improved but still lackluster 4th, beaten by almost 7 lengths, without showing a hint of his decent early speed...going off at 7-2 odds.

And this brought us to yesterday's race, where the horse again faced the same class of horses, while looking no better than a 3rd or 4th choice in this field of 11...but this time his odds were an unappetizing 9-5! I looked to see if there was a compelling argument that could be made for this horse - which I may have missed - but the horse was clearly not the best horse in the race...and in no way did he deserve the play he was getting on the tote board.

It was a classic "underlay" situation which we always used to prey upon for our wagering profits, but - in the current era - the "supertrainers" like Juan Carlos Guerrero have become the hunters...and WE have become the prey.

Hunter's Score won by 6 1/2 lengths...laughing every step of the way...and paying $5.80 to win.

[sammy the sage]

Exactly WHY my money goes down ONLY on larger paying stakes races...they're ALL GIVING a 110% then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[lamboguy]

here is the bottom line, if the game was just about reading pace figures and sheet numbers, you and everyone else would all be millionaires. what you pointed out is one of many reasons why this game is a challenge. i know that what you are trying to say is that juan carlos guerreo is using some type of miracle drug that is automatically making the horse go faster. what you are thinking is that he is fooling the test barn's on a consistant basis. i have no idea what he is doing or what he is using. what i do know is that some vets charge as much as $400 to pre-race a horse, where i was accustomed to only paying about $100. those bills come from some of the most respected vets in the industry. when the bill comes i am told that there is no list just "pre-race". personally i really don't think there is a drug in this world that exist's that once administered is the same as rocket fuel. there are drugs that can ease the soreness that a horse has and drugs that help the horse breath better. most of them are going to be caught at the test barn though. testing for epogen is a horses system is impossible to find because there is stuff that is made that is a synthetic drug and does not supposedly come from snake venim or snail's. but what does happen is that the horse's coat winds up looking like a cancer patient that is having chemotherapy. i am sure they look for that in jaun carlos horses. some of his horses get claimed away from him and i haven't heard of any complaints. as far as pain medication goes, anything that is anti-inflamatory will get picked up in the test barn. i know of medication that is used for human arthritic patients, such as embrel, that goes directly to the nervous system. that medication falls under the category of human genome monoclonal anti-body. i have no idea if they test for that stuff, or if there is a test for it that it will actually show up. what i do know is that it is expensive stuff, and cost over $1000 per month for human's that weigh under 200 pounds. a horse weighs 1000 pounds, so if one would be giving it to a horse it would cost about $5000. test or no test i highly doubt that someone would spend that much money to administer that drug to a horse for a purse that in the $20k range. i want you to know that when any trainer is batting over 30% they are being watched like a hawk. juan carlos is no exception! the thing about human nature is that when money is involved, people often think and do crazy things. i am not being naiive and telling you that its impossible for this guy or others to have something up their sleeves to prejudice an outcome of a horse race, just wanted you to know that in that context it is not an easy thing to do.

[Relwob Owner]

here is the bottom line, if the game was just about reading pace figures and sheet numbers, you and everyone else would all be millionaires. what you pointed out is one of many reasons why this game is a challenge. i know that what you are trying to say is that juan carlos guerreo is using some type of miracle drug that is automatically making the horse go faster. what you are thinking is that he is fooling the test barn's on a consistant basis. i have no idea what he is doing or what he is using. what i do know is that some vets charge as much as $400 to pre-race a horse, where i was accustomed to only paying about $100. those bills come from some of the most respected vets in the industry. when the bill comes i am told that there is no list just "pre-race". personally i really don't think there is a drug in this world that exist's that once administered is the same as rocket fuel. there are drugs that can ease the soreness that a horse has and drugs that help the horse breath better. most of them are going to be caught at the test barn though. testing for epogen is a horses system is impossible to find because there is stuff that is made that is a synthetic drug and does not supposedly come from snake venim or snail's. but what does happen is that the horse's coat winds up looking like a cancer patient that is having chemotherapy. i am sure they look for that in jaun carlos horses. some of his horses get claimed away from him and i haven't heard of any complaints. as far as pain medication goes, anything that is anti-inflamatory will get picked up in the test barn. i know of medication that is used for human arthritic patients, such as embrel, that goes directly to the nervous system. that medication falls under the category of human genome monoclonal anti-body. i have no idea if they test for that stuff, or if there is a test for it that it will actually show up. what i do know is that it is expensive stuff, and cost over $1000 per month for human's that weigh under 200 pounds. a horse weighs 1000 pounds, so if one would be giving it to a horse it would cost about $5000. test or no test i highly doubt that someone would spend that much money to administer that drug to a horse for a purse that in the $20k range. i want you to know that when any trainer is batting over 30% they are being watched like a hawk. juan carlos is no exception! the thing about human nature is that when money is involved, people often think and do crazy things. i am not being naiive and telling you that its impossible for this guy or others to have something up their sleeves to prejudice an outcome of a horse race, just wanted you to know that in that context it is not an easy thing to do.



You say he is being "watched like a hawk".....do you have any specific examples of what this means or what it entails? From what I have seen in terms of nefarious situations at the track, things that seem obvious to the average observer often go seemingly unnoticed or ignored

[OntheRail]

The one thing you will not find in any sheet is Trainer Intent. Are they in it to win it... or evaluate or devalue the horse in the public eye.

Yep Trainers Intent that's what I'd chock it up to.

[thaskalos]

here is the bottom line, if the game was just about reading pace figures and sheet numbers, you and everyone else would all be millionaires. what you pointed out is one of many reasons why this game is a challenge. i know that what you are trying to say is that juan carlos guerreo is using some type of miracle drug that is automatically making the horse go faster. what you are thinking is that he is fooling the test barn's on a consistant basis. i have no idea what he is doing or what he is using. what i do know is that some vets charge as much as $400 to pre-race a horse, where i was accustomed to only paying about $100. those bills come from some of the most respected vets in the industry. when the bill comes i am told that there is no list just "pre-race". personally i really don't think there is a drug in this world that exist's that once administered is the same as rocket fuel. there are drugs that can ease the soreness that a horse has and drugs that help the horse breath better. most of them are going to be caught at the test barn though. testing for epogen is a horses system is impossible to find because there is stuff that is made that is a synthetic drug and does not supposedly come from snake venim or snail's. but what does happen is that the horse's coat winds up looking like a cancer patient that is having chemotherapy. i am sure they look for that in jaun carlos horses. some of his horses get claimed away from him and i haven't heard of any complaints. as far as pain medication goes, anything that is anti-inflamatory will get picked up in the test barn. i know of medication that is used for human arthritic patients, such as embrel, that goes directly to the nervous system. that medication falls under the category of human genome monoclonal anti-body. i have no idea if they test for that stuff, or if there is a test for it that it will actually show up. what i do know is that it is expensive stuff, and cost over $1000 per month for human's that weigh under 200 pounds. a horse weighs 1000 pounds, so if one would be giving it to a horse it would cost about $5000. test or no test i highly doubt that someone would spend that much money to administer that drug to a horse for a purse that in the $20k range. i want you to know that when any trainer is batting over 30% they are being watched like a hawk. juan carlos is no exception! the thing about human nature is that when money is involved, people often think and do crazy things. i am not being naiive and telling you that its impossible for this guy or others to have something up their sleeves to prejudice an outcome of a horse race, just wanted you to know that in that context it is not an easy thing to do.Not long ago, Dahoss checked up on the Juan Carlos Guerrero claims.

He found that when Guerrero claims a horse, he wins "first off the claim" about 50% of the time! But when other trainers claim from HIM...THEY win only 3% of the time.

If this isn't shocking, I don't know what is!

[Robert Fischer]

Obviously it goes without saying that you passed this race, but were upset enough that you did what should be done and made a public complaint.

This is happening too frequently - A performance enhancing operation is making a race unbettable for profitable players - or even those trying to play the game and TRYING to be profitable!
To explain in layman's terms = the only players who can bet on or against the performance enhanced horses are:

ADDICTED GAMBLERS = who lose anyway and chase favorites, still lose, but may lose slightly less than usual when betting on the performance enhanced runners.
MONEY LAUNDERERS = they are playing with rebates already and those involved are willing to pay the moderate loss as a "fee" in order to do business with the racetracks in the known fashion.

Some may debate that money can be made on the performance enhanced operations by jumping on their bandwagon early on when their operation first starts to go afoul and jumping off when the public as a whole starts to get wise... This is true, although the volume of plays generated is small for the amount of grunt work and skill required. Also, most probably don't care, but it also transforms the game somewhat from a noble intellectual contest into something a bit darker. - As it is, with the majority of non-rebated skilled players choosing to pass the vast majority of races with known performance enhancers, there is still a passive element to admitting the existence of this foul element.

[Robert Fischer]

Not long ago, Dahoss checked up on the Juan Carlos Guerrero claims.

He found that when Guerrero claims a horse, he wins "first off the claim" about 50% of the time! But when other trainers claim from HIM...THEY win only 3% of the time.

If this isn't shocking, I don't know what is!

There is probably a true probability of something like 75% of the time you see similar statistics(possibly much less dramatic) that the operation is using a powerful drug that both enhances performances, and either causes dependence or damaging side-effects.

In horseracing there should be "flags" that statistical anomalies raise - both on the micro and macro levels. Once raised, a higher level than standard testing should be instituted. It is such an obvious error to nearly all people that follow horseracing that we don't step up testing when there are telltale signs of cheating. Sure there may be a few geniuses or dream runs of good luck, but 7/10 of these cases are performance enhancers.

[Wingtips]

You say he is being "watched like a hawk".....do you have any specific examples of what this means or what it entails? From what I have seen in terms of nefarious situations at the track, things that seem obvious to the average observer often go seemingly unnoticed or ignored


Correct.
Nobody is watching anybody closely beyond regular testing protocals at Parx. People give these "watchers" way too much credit- they sleepwalk their their workdays. There is no CSI Parx!

[Stillriledup]

Racetracks love guys like this, because they have big barns and their horses are consistent performers as the favorites, which means, THEY feel that the public wants to bet races where supertrainers are involved.

I've been preaching this to the choir for the longest time now, racetracks only care about one thing. Profits and losses. They don't care if one bettor is being cheated at the expense of another. If the Juan Carloses of the world started making bettors leave the track and the handle plummeted and they received letters and e mails from large players saying they can no longer play the races over there, they would do something about it.

But they're not going to care as LONG AS HANDLE STAYS THE SAME.

No track is going to LOSE betting handle because a supertrainer is plying his trade, that's not how it works unfortunately.

[Pell Mell]

There seems to be more than one track where this shit goes on. I noticed a trainer the other day, I forget where and am too lazy to go look, with a 65% win average and it was for more than a few races.

I avoid races where these guys have an entry but it is frustrating when you find a spot play and he's in these races. I'm sick of getting beat by 3/5 shots. :bang:

[Zman179]

I certainly don't avoid betting these types of races. If I see Guerrero (or a similar super-juicer) first time off the claim, he is my top choice and is going on top of all my tickets. It doesn't matter if the horse has lost his last four races by a combined total of 70 lengths (with one of those races being eased), he is winning today. Period.

Sometimes in order to make a profit you just have to learn to throw the form out and bet based on cold trainer stats, and the public is starting to do just that.

[Relwob Owner]

Not long ago, Dahoss checked up on the Juan Carlos Guerrero claims.

He found that when Guerrero claims a horse, he wins "first off the claim" about 50% of the time! But when other trainers claim from HIM...THEY win only 3% of the time.

If this isn't shocking, I don't know what is!


There is a simlar percentage trainer at CT now as well......I think a lot of this is related at least partially to the slots......they have taken much of the motivation away from tracks in terms of putting any effort into their product. Since they have the slots money that they think(incorrectly IMO) will always be there, they have no incentive to investigate these trainers and dont care that bettors and owners alike may one day get fed up and not participate anymore.

[proximity]

You say he is being "watched like a hawk".....do you have any specific examples of what this means or what it entails? From what I have seen in terms of nefarious situations at the track, things that seem obvious to the average observer often go seemingly unnoticed or ignored

one (ahem) positive in 2010 was the state police investigation at penn national.

while i don't know what this investigation will ultimately yield in terms of convictions (if anything), the presence of the state police really seemed to stabilize most of the outrageous trainer percentages that plagued this track throughout the decade. stephanie beattie is struggling to finish 20% for the year at pen and jamie ness is at like 17%. amongst the leaders, only scott lake has a really high percentage and that is with a limited number of starters.

when it comes to policing super-trainers, i guess it just depends on the hawk that's doing the watching.

[Relwob Owner]

one (ahem) positive in 2010 was the state police investigation at penn national.

while i don't know what this investigation will ultimately yield in terms of convictions (if anything), the presence of the state police really seemed to stabilize most of the outrageous trainer percentages that plagued this track throughout the decade. stephanie beattie is struggling to finish 20% for the year at pen and jamie ness is at like 17%. amongst the leaders, only scott lake has a really high percentage and that is with a limited number of starters.

when it comes to policing super-trainers, i guess it just depends on the hawk that's doing the watching.


Good example with Penn and the effect it has had there.....as you say, that proves that changes can come about when effort is made......people debate the rules quite often but as someone who know and repect says to me alot, enforcement is the key and when it is done(like at PENN) positive results happen.

[Robert Fischer]

I certainly don't avoid betting these types of races. If I see Guerrero (or a similar super-juicer) first time off the claim, he is my top choice and is going on top of all my tickets. It doesn't matter if the horse has lost his last four races by a combined total of 70 lengths (with one of those races being eased), he is winning today. Period.

Sometimes in order to make a profit you just have to learn to throw the form out and bet based on cold trainer stats, and the public is starting to do just that.

The above is fine - When the horse isn't a heavy favorite in each of the pools you plan on playing.
Disregard my advice if the public isn't crushing the particular super-trainer yet. Good point about not caring if the form is bad - in many cases that is your only chance because you may get 7-2 on a horse! Once your first off claimer is a well bet favorite, you are mathematically locking into an agreement at somewhere between breakeven and takeout. I don't care how much confidence you have, if the horse is bet down you are subject to the takeout considering the amount of money who mathematically has to agree with you in order to drive the odds down.

You know who really allows this garbage to continue?? It's not the addict(although the current goofy biz model is too oriented to a bare-bones small operation that sometimes seems to make the poor decision to make the addict part of the focus), and its not guys like Zman who still demand a price on the juice, - it's the money launderers. If they had real integrity, they would let their dollars do the talking. But they don't. They are willing to leverage a loss, provided it's consistent. The MLs whale-money keeps the drug races afloat. The skill-players decreased play in those races isn't even felt because of the MLs presence (which at times increases). There is almost a certainty that there is some coordination at certain tracks between rebate players, to help avoid them playing each other too much. Drugs help their cause. They might actually care about the harm to the horses, but that doesn't pay their bills. Having a bunch of extra strong-favorites sures-up their operation, and as mentioned they don't care if it is at a small-moderate loss after rebates.

[Relwob Owner]

Check out I Ain't Lyin who just won the second...topped out at a 42 Beyer on the dirt, claimed running an 8 Beyer, runs a 72 next out and then just won by a mile in 1:16 and change after running absurdly fast fractions(43 and change for the half, I think).....remarkable improvement

[onefast99]

Check out I Ain't Lyin who just won the second...topped out at a 42 Beyer on the dirt, claimed running an 8 Beyer, runs a 72 next out and then just won by a mile in 1:16 and change after running absurdly fast fractions(43 and change for the half, I think).....remarkable improvement
You bring up beyer figures at Parx it seems they are always a lot lighter there as opposed to MP, Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. Penn,Mountaineer and CT horses also seem to get very low beyer figures. I wonder why that is?

[Beachbabe]

Check out I Ain't Lyin who just won the second...topped out at a 42 Beyer on the dirt, claimed running an 8 Beyer, runs a 72 next out and then just won by a mile in 1:16 and change after running absurdly fast fractions(43 and change for the half, I think).....remarkable improvement

Probably ran a Beyer in the high 80's today, at least.
I think it's that tender loving care he gives all his horses which enable them to improve 80 points in just 2 races. Nothing like a little change in shoes or a change in bedding to get those horses to really want to run. :rolleyes:

[Relwob Owner]

You bring up beyer figures at Parx it seems they are always a lot lighter there as opposed to MP, Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. Penn,Mountaineer and CT horses also seem to get very low beyer figures. I wonder why that is?


Good question....I mainly watch and focus on CT and check in at Philly on some Mondays when I am bored with paperwork....with many multiple track playing figs people on here, I can imagine someone has some insight on what you have noticed.

[Relwob Owner]

Probably ran a Beyer in the high 80's today, at least.
I think it's that tender loving care he gives all his horses which enable them to improve 80 points in just 2 races. Nothing like a little change in shoes or a change in bedding to get those horses to really want to run. :rolleyes:


My personal favorite in theses situations is when people defend things,saying the horses are simply "well spotted".......

[Valuist]

one (ahem) positive in 2010 was the state police investigation at penn national.

while i don't know what this investigation will ultimately yield in terms of convictions (if anything), the presence of the state police really seemed to stabilize most of the outrageous trainer percentages that plagued this track throughout the decade. stephanie beattie is struggling to finish 20% for the year at pen and jamie ness is at like 17%. amongst the leaders, only scott lake has a really high percentage and that is with a limited number of starters.

when it comes to policing super-trainers, i guess it just depends on the hawk that's doing the watching.

Jamie Ness at 17%? I'm sure that's a small number of starters. He'll be up to his usual 30% in no time.

[point given]

My personal favorite in theses situations is when people defend things,saying the horses are simply "well spotted".......

Didnot know there were " pinto " tbreds . :eek: :rolleyes: :eek:

[onefast99]

Probably ran a Beyer in the high 80's today, at least.
I think it's that tender loving care he gives all his horses which enable them to improve 80 points in just 2 races. Nothing like a little change in shoes or a change in bedding to get those horses to really want to run. :rolleyes:
"drew off in the stretch as if out for a stroll in the park" I haven't seen too many of those lines in the comment section. Very fast time, best of the day by far.

[TonyK@HSH]

Jamie Ness at 17%? I'm sure that's a small number of starters. He'll be up to his usual 30% in no time.

Jamie maintained a full barn at Pen for nearly a year but pulled out in September. Win percentage hovered at 17% (Pen only). Pen is a tough place to race right now.

[Lancelot10]

"drew off in the stretch as if out for a stroll in the park" I haven't seen too many of those lines in the comment section. Very fast time, best of the day by far.

I like the side commment- "COMPLETE DOMINATION"... I'm sure her prior connections love reading that- :p

[Spiderman]

A very educational race took place yesterday (Monday) at Philly Park, which also illustrates one of the main problems that our favorite sport faces in the current era.

In Monday's 6th race, the 9/5 favorite was a horse named Hunter's Score, who was usually a consistent sort - often finishing in the money while running "Beyers" in the 52-57 range.

When he made his return from a 3 month layoff this September the 3rd, however, something seemed terrible wrong with the horse. At odds of 3-1 in a field of 7,500 claimers, he didn't run a lick - without a visable excuse - braking 6th by 2, tiring to last by 11 at the (slow) half mile, and finishing the 6 1/2 furlong sprint 9th and last, beaten by 22 lengths...while earning a "Beyer" of 4.

It would have been easy to conclude that something seriousy wrong had transpired with Hunter's Score, causing us to throw him out as a serious contender of a subsequent race...but something very interesting took place which demanded a closer look; the horse was claimed by trainer "extraordinaire" Juan Carlos Guerrero.

In his next start, the horse showed up in the same 7,500 claiming tag as before, and this time ran an improved but still lackluster 4th, beaten by almost 7 lengths, without showing a hint of his decent early speed...going off at 7-2 odds.

And this brought us to yesterday's race, where the horse again faced the same class of horses, while looking no better than a 3rd or 4th choice in this field of 11...but this time his odds were an unappetizing 9-5! I looked to see if there was a compelling argument that could be made for this horse - which I may have missed - but the horse was clearly not the best horse in the race...and in no way did he deserve the play he was getting on the tote board.

It was a classic "underlay" situation which we always used to prey upon for our wagering profits, but - in the current era - the "supertrainers" like Juan Carlos Guerrero have become the hunters...and WE have become the prey.

Hunter's Score won by 6 1/2 lengths...laughing every step of the way...and paying $5.80 to win.
Ddi Hunter's Score show recent workouts?

[proximity]

Jamie maintained a full barn at Pen for nearly a year but pulled out in September. Win percentage hovered at 17% (Pen only). Pen is a tough place to race right now.

i'd say it was even tougher in 2009 (when ness was 30% at pen) before they ran mr gill out of the track. delahoussaye, adamo, and vitali won about a month's worth of races combined.

conclusion?

competition got easier, but enforcement (or threat of) got tougher.

[thaskalos]

Ddi Hunter's Score show recent workouts?No published workouts for 20 days prior to his last start - on November 22nd.

[Spiderman]

Thanks, I asked because he had a 'live' one in 7th, Nov 30 with ywo good works. Horse was bet to under 2-1 and ran-up the track. It was probably too obvious with one work, a bullet - best of 40.

[pandy]

Bringing this thread back out of curiosity. I can't remember if Juan Carlos Guerrero got a drug fine or suspension. I know Parx gave him a 10 year suspension for something unrelated to training and that was dropped after a judge ruled that he hadn't committed a crime.

There are certain trainers who used to win at a high percentage that have come down to earth since the indictments were announced last year. Juan Carlos G. is one of them as he's now winning at 11% and doesn't have the magical first-off-the-claim thing going.

[Robert Fischer]

Bringing this thread back out of curiosity. I can't remember if Juan Carlos Guerrero got a drug fine or suspension. I know Parx gave him a 10 year suspension for something unrelated to training and that was dropped after a judge ruled that he hadn't committed a crime.

There are certain trainers who used to win at a high percentage that have come down to earth since the indictments were announced last year. Juan Carlos G. is one of them as he's now winning at 11% and doesn't have the magical first-off-the-claim thing going.

yea he's laying relatively low now.

i haven't followed which of his owners have moved on to, or created, other high% acts

[Half Smoke]

....................


the respected poker writer David Sklansky has also written about horse racing

he's not an expert on horse racing but he did write something in one of his books I liked a lot

he wrote, that if you believe you have an overlay, and you believe you understand why the fave was overbet creating the overlay - then you may have a very good bet

but if you think you have an overlay but you don't know why the fave was bet down - watch out - some may know something you don't know




*