OFF Track Predictors

[karlskorner]

From Gordon Pine

www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT011012.htm

And from KarlsKorner: Pay attention to the Tractors

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sometimes it seems little things matter more with off-tracks. Sometimes I like to observe how high the mud flys up on the horses' bodys.

[andicap]

I remember reading something in Sea Biscuit about how Woolf or Pollard (I think the former) followed the tractor wheels to find the best path in a
big race when the track was off.

When I subscribed to Logic Dictates in the late 80s -- a Binghamton, NY based trip notes services (I don't have the phone number and not sure if still in business, but they were excellent for NYRA), the guy who did the notes always pointed out horses who got the great trips because of the tractor wheels being the firmest part of the track.

[karlskorner]

And Dick Schmidt posted awhile back, I was the only one he knew of that did "tractor handicapping"

[Valuist]

Thorograph has a nice feature in which they break down jockey and trainer stats for off tracks. Jorge Chavez is tremendous on off tracks.

[Larry Hamilton]

For the distances that are carded each day, the horses of most tracks will outrun a tractor. Handicapping is therefore easy--short runs pick the horse, long runs over 10 miles, pick the tractor.

[Larry Hamilton]

Handicapping mudders has gotten alot more complex with the amount of data bases around. You can cross mud with almost anything and get a stat, the trick is answering the question, "Is it relavent?"

[Tom]

To me, the best thing in world to use for handicapping mud is the lifetime PPs in Formulator. The stats i the money box are worthless at best, misleading for sure. I look at the whole mud history - was it GD, MY, SLY, what tracks did the horse well at in wet going, what did the times look like? Mud is one factor I don' think you can summarize - the raw data tells the story.

[keilan]

There's a good reason horse's pay BOXCARS on 'off tracks".

Many players are unsure how to handicap today's field on a heavy track.

The track condition which is posted in the PP's doesn't necessarily tell the whole story either. There are degrees of "good" for example, the range is fairly large.

So if someone where trying to derive some conclusions from a sampling of races run only on "good-rated" tracks at their track of choice they may every well may end up with conflicting results.

I believe if one were to group the winners from these days using the track variant instead of using the track condition, the study should enhance there method of selecting eventually winners on "off tracks" i.e.: stratifying tracks in groupings from slow 1-4, slow 5-8, and so-on. Incorporate other variables such-as age, sex, surface, distance and class, and a picture should begin to form.

Most have heard the saying "horse for different courses" when moisture enters the track surface the track changes and different types of runners are advantaged.

The Aqueduct inner track was fun to play last year for me because the track could and often changed from one day to the next.

Here's the trick, after you are able to identify the type of runner which is advantaged on certain surfaces how do I apply that information/ knowledge to today's race before they run the race?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like tall horses in the mud, if ridden by older jockeys.

[hurrikane]

Uh..gee Ken. Curious how big the sample size was that put you on to that one.

And how many hands high is a tall horse?

How old is an older jockey?

[andicap]

Are prices really higher on average in the slop?

Can you investigate through the databases while accounting for the lower field sizes in the slop. (e.g. a 2-1 payoff in a 6-horse field vs a 2-1 payoff in a 10-horse field).

I've seen slop days where a ton of chalk comes in because of the short fields and uncompetitive nature of the races -- so many scratches, off-turf races, etc.

ALSO
Ragozin's theory on off tracks is that horses who are the most fit will perform the best on sloppy/muddy tracks.
Have no idea if that's true. Any Sheets people here have an opinion?

[keilan]

Andy


If you are referring to my post, clearly it states nothing about sloppy track conditions or races taken off the grass.

Players that handicap speed tracks and speed horses have no reason to change their handicapping criteria in the slop, thus quite often the "short prices".

A track rated sloppy often favors front running speed types, quite different than a heavy track or drying out track or muddy track. Unless the front-runner (heavy, drying, or muddy) in the field demonstrates critical attributes over the others in the field and the other horses simply don't match-up.

And as far as --- Ragozin's theory on off tracks is that horses who are the most fit will perform the best on sloppy/muddy tracks. "Gee that piece of riveting information comes has a huge surprise!" That's meant to be tongue-in-cheek but thanks for sharing.