Comparison of Records (+ those of opponents)

[FenceBored]

As of 11/13/2010 the summary of accomplisments looks like this.

Zenyatta 2010 Record
6 -5-1-0 (all grade 1s)

Defeated 23 unique opponents in her victories
Key races won: 0
3 next out winners (excluding subject)
2 next out stakes winners (0 Graded)

For the year those opponents combine for:
156-26-19-29 (16.67% winners, 47.44% ITM)

47.92% stakes winners
26.08% Graded stakes winners

Stake win totals: 15 total, 6 graded
00 G1s
06 G2s
00 G3s
09 Ungraded stakes

Earnings of opponents-
Total: $2,935,092
Avg: $127,613

Q1: $051,975
Q2: $102,437
Q3: $155,900

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 1
Number of opponents undefeated outside races won by subject: 0

===================================

Blame 2010 Record
5-4-1-0 (four Grade 1s {three wins} and one G3)

Defeated 28 unique opponents in his victories
Key races won: 2 (Stephen Foster, Whitney)
6 next out winners (excluding subject)
5 next out stakes winners (2 Graded {both G1})

For the year those opponents combine for:
180-52-36-23 (29.44% winners, 62.22% ITM)

67.85% stakes winners
46.42% Graded stakes winners

Stake win totals: 40 total, 30 graded
14 G1s
09 G2s
07 G3s
10 Ungraded stakes

Earnings of opponents-
Total: $15,360,527
Avg: $548,590

Q1: $094,087
Q2: $270,719
Q3: $548,590

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 10
Number of opponents undefeated outside races won by subject: 4

[Tom]

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 1

And who that have been?
I count 4.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Zenyatta 2010
For the year those opponents combine for:
156-26-19-29 (16.67% winners, 47.44% ITM)

Blame 2010
For the year those opponents combine for:
180-52-36-23 (29.44% winners, 62.22% ITM)





Shall we retitle this thread: Path of Least Resistance ?

[Tom]

Or maybe "Path to Redundency"

[mountainman]

As of 11/13/2010 the summary of accomplisments looks like this.

Zenyatta 2010 Record
6 -5-1-0 (all grade 1s)

Defeated 23 unique opponents in her victories
Key races won: 0
3 next out winners (excluding subject)
2 next out stakes winners (0 Graded)

For the year those opponents combine for:
156-26-19-29 (16.67% winners, 47.44% ITM)

47.92% stakes winners
26.08% Graded stakes winners

Stake win totals: 15 total, 6 graded
00 G1s
06 G2s
00 G3s
09 Ungraded stakes

Earnings of opponents-
Total: $2,935,092
Avg: $127,613

Q1: $051,975
Q2: $102,437
Q3: $155,900

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 1
Number of opponents undefeated outside races won by subject: 0

===================================

Blame 2010 Record
5-4-1-0 (four Grade 1s {three wins} and one G3)

Defeated 28 unique opponents in his victories
Key races won: 2 (Stephen Foster, Whitney)
6 next out winners (excluding subject)
5 next out stakes winners (2 Graded {both G1})

For the year those opponents combine for:
180-52-36-23 (29.44% winners, 62.22% ITM)

67.85% stakes winners
46.42% Graded stakes winners

Stake win totals: 40 total, 30 graded
14 G1s
09 G2s
07 G3s
10 Ungraded stakes

Earnings of opponents-
Total: $15,360,527
Avg: $548,590

Q1: $094,087
Q2: $270,719
Q3: $548,590

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 10
Number of opponents undefeated outside races won by subject: 4

Educational post. I would add one asterisk to put Zenyatta's season (and career) in even sharper perspective. * Retired winless versus males on dirt.

[FenceBored]

And who that have been?
I count 4.

Switch at #72..

I just went through all the opponents via Equibase's horse search feature. In the 2010 statistics section it gives earnings and rank.

If you're thinking of counting horses who finished behind her in the Classic, don't. I don't believe most people would be interested in a count of how many horses Zippy Chippy defeated in his 100 winless sanctioned races. If you don't win, you don't get to count the horses behind you in defeat as ones you've defeated.

[tucker6]

Or maybe "Path to Redundency"How about "Path to the Duck Pond"?? Or "Biography of Pepper's Pride"??

[PhantomOnTour]

Educational post. I would add one asterisk to put Zenyatta's season (and career) in even sharper perspective. * Retired winless versus males on dirt.
* Azeri...?
* Ruffian...?
* Go For Wand...?

[Tom]

If you're thinking of counting horses who finished behind her in the Classic, don't.
Why not? She BURIED Quality Road. HIS surface, his non-favoring closers surface, and she BURIED his ass. For all the crap about blame, he beat her by what 6 inches? Winless, maybe, but she beat a few of them that day - humiliated them more like it. QR - failed to enter gate one year, failed to beat a single horse the next. Woo Hoo!. Haynesfield better look out, next year, QR will be gunning for him.

Haynesfield......Pig - 1?
Do you think he got whiplash when she blew by him?


I think maybe those two should consider running at Mountaineer....maybe the could beat the horses with curly little tails. :D

Do they get asterisks for that?

[mountainman]

* Azeri...?
* Ruffian...?
* Go For Wand...?

Let me know when somebody calls Go for Wand the greatest of all time. Love how you mocked my asterisk, though. Very effective.

[PhantomOnTour]

Let me know when somebody calls Go for Wand the greatest of all time.
That explains one...are Azeri and Ruffian not 'all timers' in the distaff ranks?

So are you saying that the asterisk should appear next to Zen's name because someone called her the greatest of all time?

[mountainman]

That explains one...

Sure does. (still dig how you mocked my asterisk)

[PhantomOnTour]

Sure does. (still dig how you mocked my asterisk)
Well that's your second dig at how you dig my supposed mockery of your asterisk. I wasn't mocking it...I was merely asking whether or not an asterisk should appear next to the names of the others; all hall of famers right? Just like Zenyatta.

For the record, I don't consider Zen the greatest of all time. Not even the greatest filly/mare of all time (I think Ruffian is the best gal ever)...but I also think it's totally off base to suggest an asterisk should appear next to her name in the 'record books' to indicate she never beat males on dirt. In fact, I consider it ridiculous.

[chickenhead]

*employed at Mountaineer

[mountainman]

*employed at Mountaineer

Sooner or later, somebody always gets personal. I don't go there.

[mountainman]

Well that's your second dig at how you dig my supposed mockery of your asterisk. I wasn't mocking it...I was merely asking whether or not an asterisk should appear next to the names of the others; all hall of famers right? Just like Zenyatta.

For the record, I don't consider Zen the greatest of all time. Not even the greatest filly/mare of all time (I think Ruffian is the best gal ever)...but I also think it's totally off base to suggest an asterisk should appear next to her name in the 'record books' to indicate she never beat males on dirt. In fact, I consider it ridiculous.

Take a deep breath and chill. It's not pistols at ten-paces. And I did think your replicating my asterisk made for an effective response. I agree on Ruffian, btw, and would like to continue this, but I can't do you full justice right now. I'm researching a future blog and trying to get the browns beat. TOUCHDOWN JETS!!! ( devout steeler fan here)

[FenceBored]

Why not? She BURIED Quality Road. HIS surface, his non-favoring closers surface, and she BURIED his ass. For all the crap about blame, he beat her by what 6 inches? Winless, maybe, but she beat a few of them that day - humiliated them more like it. QR - failed to enter gate one year, failed to beat a single horse the next. Woo Hoo!. Haynesfield better look out, next year, QR will be gunning for him.

Haynesfield......Pig - 1?
Do you think he got whiplash when she blew by him?


I think maybe those two should consider running at Mountaineer....maybe the could beat the horses with curly little tails. :D

Do they get asterisks for that?

Why not? :confused: 'Cause she's one of the losers.

Everything in my analysis is based on a simple concept. If you win the race you get all the credit. If you don't win, you don't get any. Zenyatta gets no credit for the accomplishments of anyone in the Classic, and Blame gets no credit for Rail Trip, or Hold Me Back, or anyone else he finished in front of in the JCGC. Why should he, he didn't win the race.

I love how people like to make fun of the G1 winners Blame beat. That's nice, let's talk about the 2010 G1 winners Zenyatta actually got a winner's check for beating this year.

Umm ...

Well, I guess that conversation's over.

[chickenhead]

Sooner or later somebody always gets personal. I don't go there.

Phantom was asking a legitimate question....what I posted was mocking your asterisk. And you're right, big difference.

I'm sure you're not ashamed or insulted that you work at Mountaineer, why would you be. What's stupid is me putting an asterisk next to it. Well, there you go.

[PhantomOnTour]

Take a deep breath and chill. It's not pistols at ten-paces. And I did think your replicating my asterisk made for an effective response. I agree on Ruffian, btw, and would like to continue this, but I can't do you full justice right now. I'm researching a future blog and trying to get the browns beat. TOUCHDOWN JETS!!! ( devout steeler fan here)
Ahhhhhh, common ground! I too love few things more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Notice we catch the Pats in the same situation we caught the Saints...coming off a whipping by the Browns and probably feeling quite pissed. We will need our best.

I agree---it's not pistols at ten paces. But wouldn't you agree James Harrison at ten paces is far more lethal? :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Well, I guess that conversation's over.

If that is all you've got, I guess so.
you counted he loss in the stats, so I used common sense and used that race as well.

If you sum up all those great bullet points in Blame's career and all he could do is the beat the worst mare of all time by 6 inches, then I guess it is over.

[mountainman]

Phantom was asking a legitimate question....what I posted was mocking your asterisk. And you're right, big difference.

I'm sure you're not ashamed or insulted that you work at Mountaineer, why would you be. What's stupid is me putting an asterisk next to it. Well, there you go.

I have no idea what you're saying here, which probably means you've outdebated me. Congrats.

[tucker6]

Ahhhhhh, common ground! I too love few things more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Notice we catch the Pats in the same situation we caught the Saints...coming off a whipping by the Browns and probably feeling quite pissed. We will need our best.

I agree---it's not pistols at ten paces. But wouldn't you agree James Harrison at ten paces is far more lethal? :ThmbUp:Another devout Steeler fan here. We are everywhere. :cool:

[mountainman]

Ahhhhhh, common ground! I too love few things more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Notice we catch the Pats in the same situation we caught the Saints...coming off a whipping by the Browns and probably feeling quite pissed. We will need our best.

I agree---it's not pistols at ten paces. But wouldn't you agree James Harrison at ten paces is far more lethal? :ThmbUp:

Like the guy said at the end of Casablanca: "This could be the start of a beautiful friendship," Where are you from, pal?

[mountainman]

Another devout Steeler fan here. We are everywhere. :cool:

Now I like you a lot better too.

[joanied]

Hey, Steelers guys...what do you know about Bret Kiesel (#99)...we don't watch all the Steelers games...but try to catch some because Bret is from a small town out here in WY., Greybull, and we knew him well...he played HS basketball, as did one of our sons...who had to 'cover' Bret in the games...wasn't easy to do, Bret was a big kid...it's a running joke here that we hated Kiesel...we didn't really, but he sure made it hard for us to beat Greybull...we did anyway and went State Champs back to back years:jump:

[FenceBored]

If that is all you've got, I guess so.
you counted he loss in the stats, so I used common sense and used that race as well.

If you sum up all those great bullet points in Blame's career and all he could do is the beat the worst mare of all time by 6 inches, then I guess it is over.

I counted it as a loss, so common sense says you can count it as a victory? :confused:

Ain't nobody saying Zenyatta's the "worst mare of all time" and nobody saying Blame's anything extraordinary.

[mountainman]

Hey, Steelers guys...what do you know about Bret Kiesel (#99)...we don't watch all the Steelers games...but try to catch some because Bret is from a small town out here in WY., Greybull, and we knew him well...he played HS basketball, as did one of our sons...who had to 'cover' Bret in the games...wasn't easy to do, Bret was a big kid...it's a running joke here that we hated Kiesel...we didn't really, but he sure made it hard for us to beat Greybull...we did anyway and went State Champs back to back years:jump:

Tough guy who's strong against the run. He hurt an ankle earlier this season. Thanks for sharing some background on him. Bet he was a moose under the boards.

[Tom]

I counted it as a loss, so common sense says you can count it as a victory? :confused:



That's not what I wrote. She BEAT the other males.

Ain't nobody saying Zenyatta's the "worst mare of all time" and nobody saying Blame's anything extraordinary.

I just assumed there was a point to yet another thread. My bad.

[FenceBored]

That's not what I wrote. She BEAT the other males.


SHE LOST THE RACE.

You don't get the spoils if you're not the victor. If she'd won, she'd get all the credit and the second place horse (Blame or whomever) wouldn't. What's so blinkin' hard to understand about that? Is it just because it doesn't flatter her the way you want her to be flattered?


I just assumed there was a point to yet another thread. My bad.

So what, you assumed that I had to be calling her a pig, cause that's what you'd do (like you already did with QR and Haynesfield in this thread)?

I rechecked and expanded the data, bringing it up to date through yesterday, and felt it would be better placed in a separate thread instead of getting lost in some other thread. Any future updates will be to this thread. Like, if say, Switch were to win the G1 La Brea at Santa Anita before the end of the year.

[cpitt84]

Ahhhhhh, common ground! I too love few things more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Notice we catch the Pats in the same situation we caught the Saints...coming off a whipping by the Browns and probably feeling quite pissed. We will need our best.
:

Another Steelers fan here!!! I have a good feeling about tonight's game and I hope we can get it done :)

[jelly]

As of 11/13/2010 the summary of accomplisments looks like this.

Zenyatta 2010 Record
6 -5-1-0 (all grade 1s)

Defeated 23 unique opponents in her victories
Key races won: 0
3 next out winners (excluding subject)
2 next out stakes winners (0 Graded)

For the year those opponents combine for:
156-26-19-29 (16.67% winners, 47.44% ITM)

47.92% stakes winners
26.08% Graded stakes winners

Stake win totals: 15 total, 6 graded
00 G1s
06 G2s
00 G3s
09 Ungraded stakes

Earnings of opponents-
Total: $2,935,092
Avg: $127,613

Q1: $051,975
Q2: $102,437
Q3: $155,900

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 1
Number of opponents undefeated outside races won by subject: 0

===================================

Blame 2010 Record
5-4-1-0 (four Grade 1s {three wins} and one G3)

Defeated 28 unique opponents in his victories
Key races won: 2 (Stephen Foster, Whitney)
6 next out winners (excluding subject)
5 next out stakes winners (2 Graded {both G1})

For the year those opponents combine for:
180-52-36-23 (29.44% winners, 62.22% ITM)

67.85% stakes winners
46.42% Graded stakes winners

Stake win totals: 40 total, 30 graded
14 G1s
09 G2s
07 G3s
10 Ungraded stakes

Earnings of opponents-
Total: $15,360,527
Avg: $548,590

Q1: $094,087
Q2: $270,719
Q3: $548,590

Number of opponents on Equibase's top 100 money earners of 2010: 10
Number of opponents undefeated outside races won by subject: 4




Great work.


It really does show the difference in quality the two horses faced this year.

[mountainman]

Another Steelers fan here!!! I have a good feeling about tonight's game and I hope we can get it done :)
So did I. But the hoodie pounded them with his chalkboard.

[FenceBored]

With Giant Oak's win in the Clark, that's another 2010 G1 winner in Blame's column. Giving him 8 winners of 15 Grade 1s to Zenyatta's 0 winners of 0 Grade 1s.

(What a race. :eek: :faint: )

[Tom]

Oh, you must have missed it - just being labeled a GR1 doesn't count anymore. Only one GR1 win showing in the PPs of this bunch, and it was on SYNTHETIC!

Can't be calling this a GR1 race.

[Jasonm921]

Why not? She BURIED Quality Road. HIS surface, his non-favoring closers surface, and she BURIED his ass. For all the crap about blame, he beat her by what 6 inches? Winless, maybe, but she beat a few of them that day - humiliated them more like it. QR - failed to enter gate one year, failed to beat a single horse the next. Woo Hoo!. Haynesfield better look out, next year, QR will be gunning for him.

Haynesfield......Pig - 1?
Do you think he got whiplash when she blew by him?


I think maybe those two should consider running at Mountaineer....maybe the could beat the horses with curly little tails. :D

Do they get asterisks for that?



Not for nothing...The entire field blew by Haynesfield and Quality Road. What was strange about that race was how QR was basically done after 7 furlongs. You cold seen Johnny V still rolling on him...and he had nothing. The fractions werent that fast.
Maybe he had a little bit of Life at Ten syndrome.

[FenceBored]

Oh, you must have missed it - just being labeled a GR1 doesn't count anymore. Only one GR1 win showing in the PPs of this bunch, and it was on SYNTHETIC!

Can't be calling this a GR1 race.

What's that you say? Giant Oak did something Zenyatta hasn't managed to do all year, beat a Grade One winner?


:lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Tom]

Wow. Always interesting to see what the weak mind finds funny.
I never got into that moronic arguments about who beat who. So your post is basically a moot point. As is Blame, the future Trivial Pursuit answer.

[Tom]

I have to come clean. I was wrong here, and I am man enough to admit it.

Looking back at Stately Victor's Gr1 win, I find that there were no Gr1 winners in that race, so it cannot count. In fact, SV came of 6 off the board finished in NW1 company.

Now, Pleasant Prince did get nosed out in a GR1, but, as you insist, only
wins count, so Oak Tree beat nothing more than tomato cans yesterday.

[Tom]

Holy Cow!

Giant Oak didn't even win - he was PLACED first! :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

[FenceBored]

Holy Cow!

Giant Oak didn't even win - he was PLACED first! :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

You're only figuring that out now? I guess a post is thicker than a 'plank.' :rolleyes:

[FenceBored]

Wow. Always interesting to see what the weak mind finds funny.
I never got into that moronic arguments about who beat who. So your post is basically a moot point. As is Blame, the future Trivial Pursuit answer.

Really, is that why you were so hot about Zenyatta havinging 'beaten' the other horses who lost the Classic?

The Clark featured eight (8) 2010 Graded stakes winners with 12 Graded wins to there credit. That's more of both than Zenyatta won over in her five G1 wins, combined.

Which were weaker G1s?

[Tom]

Only one recent Gr1 winner in the Clark. On synths.

[Tom]

You're only figuring that out now? I guess a post is thicker than a 'plank.' :rolleyes:

Figuring it out?
Duh. Just looked at the charts. Nice try, though a bit weak.
I do not pay attention to racing at CD.

Really, is that why you were so hot about Zenyatta havinging 'beaten' the other horses who lost the Classic?

Not hot about it, like I told you before , it was a moronic argument on your part. But hey, whatever gets you through the day.

[FenceBored]

Looking back at Stately Victor's Gr1 win, I find that there were no Gr1 winners in that race, so it cannot count.


Uh, Tom, Paddy O' Prado has won a G1 this year. Hellooooo.

The Bluegrass field as a whole has (excluding the BG itself, of course) 4 Graded winners of 1/3/3 = 7 Graded stakes in 2010. That's 2 more than Zenyatta's foes in her five distaff G1s combined!

[Tom]

Wow, you sure do change the rule a lot.
At the time, there were no Gr1 winners in that race.
Paddy...won on SYTHN and on TURF. Duh.

[FenceBored]

Wow, you sure do change the rule a lot.
At the time, there were no Gr1 winners in that race.
Paddy...won on SYTHN and on TURF. Duh.

I don't "change the rule" at all. Just 'cause you can't understand them ... :rolleyes:

My rule is simple. Graded winner at any time during the specified calendar year counts. There won't be many current year graded winners in the Donn, but the opportunity for tons in the Breeders' Cup, Cigar, and Clark. Restricting things to wins that occured prior to a particular race would advantage late year races at the expense of early year races. Fair and balanced, that's the ticket.

[FenceBored]

More fun facts.


Opponents in races Zenyatta won:


2008

GROUP COVERED Sts Wins Win % Grd G Wins Gr Win %
overall 167 46 27.54%
w/o Zen 132 46 34.85% 73 23 31.51%
Pre-BC w/o Zen 106 31 29.25% 58 15 25.86%
Faced just in BC 26 15 57.69% 15 8 53.33%


2009
GROUP COVERED Sts Wins Win % Grd G Wins Gr Win %
Overall 212 53 25.00%
w/o Zen 179 53 29.61% 80 22 27.50%
Pre-BC w/o Zen 110 26 23.64% 28 4 14.29%
Pre-BC w/o LiS & Zen 105 22 20.95% 23 0 0.00%
BC only w/o Zen 69 27 39.13% 52 18 34.62%

2010 (1/1-11/30)
GROUP COVERED Sts Wins Win % Grd G Wins Gr Win %
overall 159 27 16.98%
w/o Zenyatta 134 27 20.15% 57 6 10.53%

[FenceBored]

Here's a comparison including the data on the past 10 HOY winners.

Figures include all starts/wins on all surfaces, graded or not for those individuals beaten in a race won by the HOY (or HOY contender in the case of Blame and Zenyatta).

All figures for number of starts for 'foes' does not include the races where the HOY won, thus focusing on their ability to win when the HOY didn't beat them.

Highlighted percentages are those above the 2000-2009 average for that category.

And once again, for those that seem to have trouble with the concept, only opponents in races WON by the subject horse are included. It's the same criteria for all 12.

Sorry about the size, had to keep shrinking it to get it to upload.

Note: Mineshaft faced some soft fields, didn't he? :eek:

[delayjf]

A pity Rachel Alexandar could make the BC - she would have had the same view as QR. Like I said, the best horse didn't win the BC this year.

[FenceBored]

A pity Rachel Alexandar could make the BC - she would have had the same view as QR. Like I said, the best horse didn't win the BC this year.

True, Rachel didn't win the BC this year, so I guess the best horse didn't win. :cool:

[FenceBored]

A pity Rachel Alexandar could make the BC - she would have had the same view as QR. Like I said, the best horse didn't win the BC this year.

Sometime in the next few days I post a gif (thanks PA, didn't think of the red-headed stepchild of image files) with Zenyatta's stats for the last three years with pre-BC and BC separate lines to compare. As a bonus, I'll even throw in this year's BC line as though she dead heated with Blame.

Tell me, what would you like to see? I'll give you the stats for Rachel's year (if you think you'd get a chuckle from that). All in all, it doesn't give me a chuckle, I can tell you. I hate small sample skewing. But, of course, that's what a lot of racing stats are, isn't it?

[Fager Fan]

Why not? :confused: 'Cause she's one of the losers.

Everything in my analysis is based on a simple concept. If you win the race you get all the credit. If you don't win, you don't get any. Zenyatta gets no credit for the accomplishments of anyone in the Classic, and Blame gets no credit for Rail Trip, or Hold Me Back, or anyone else he finished in front of in the JCGC. Why should he, he didn't win the race.

I love how people like to make fun of the G1 winners Blame beat. That's nice, let's talk about the 2010 G1 winners Zenyatta actually got a winner's check for beating this year.

Umm ...

Well, I guess that conversation's over.

Just the facts, you say? Where's the loss by Blame in your list? Didn't Blame lose to a worse horse than Zenyatta did? Didn't Blame lose more severely to a worse horse than Zenyatta did?

You also didn't include the historical records that Zenyatta set this year. Those are among her accomplishments and to leave them off shows a bias. Include every on-track accomplishment by both, then weigh them. If you do that, then Zenyatta comes out clearly on top.

[FenceBored]

Just the facts, you say? Where's the loss by Blame in your list? Didn't Blame lose to a worse horse than Zenyatta did? Didn't Blame lose more severely to a worse horse than Zenyatta did?

You also didn't include the historical records that Zenyatta set this year. Those are among her accomplishments and to leave them off shows a bias. Include every on-track accomplishment by both, then weigh them. If you do that, then Zenyatta comes out clearly on top.

Clearly Zenyatta lost to a worse horse than Blame lost to, because she lost to a horse that had lost to a horse that was so bad. :rolleyes:

[keithw84]

Didn't Blame lose more severely to a worse horse than Zenyatta did?


If we are going to consider that question, don't we also need to consider this one:
Didn't Blame win more impressively against horses better than the ones Zenyatta defeated?

There is more to strength of schedule than the one (in this case) horse you lose to. You also have to consider all the ones that were beaten.

[Zippy Chippy]

Why is everyone so into numbers. Who gives a crap. According to the numbers posted by Blame and Zenyatta, you would think they are on 2 different stratospheres. They both ran great and Blame won by a nose> It actually is okay to admit Zenyatta is a very good horse. Its not against the rules.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Here's a comparison including the data on the past 10 HOY winners.

Figures include all starts/wins on all surfaces, graded or not for those individuals beaten in a race won by the HOY (or HOY contender in the case of Blame and Zenyatta).

All figures for number of starts for 'foes' does not include the races where the HOY won, thus focusing on their ability to win when the HOY didn't beat them.

Highlighted percentages are those above the 2000-2009 average for that category.

And once again, for those that seem to have trouble with the concept, only opponents in races WON by the subject horse are included. It's the same criteria for all 12.

Sorry about the size, had to keep shrinking it to get it to upload.

Note: Mineshaft faced some soft fields, didn't he? :eek:

Great table FB - very illuminating, imo.

[joanied]

Why is everyone so into numbers. Who gives a crap. According to the numbers posted by Blame and Zenyatta, you would think they are on 2 different stratospheres. They both ran great and Blame won by a nose> It actually is okay to admit Zenyatta is a very good horse. Its not against the rules.

There ya go:ThmbUp:

If you take away the numbers and the competition in each race that both Zen & Blame won this year (plus the fact Zen beat every other colt in the Classic and damned near beat Blame), and just use the Grade of races...Zen won 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3 :)

Everyone can look at this HoY race in so many different ways, that it becomes apparent that there is no way for anyone to win the argument :bang: ...

we just gotta wait til the votes are in, and then which ever horse comes out on top, everyone will have to accept it...and, IMO, the Zen voters will accept Blame winning better than the other way around;)

[Dahoss9698]

Why is everyone so into numbers. Who gives a crap. According to the numbers posted by Blame and Zenyatta, you would think they are on 2 different stratospheres. They both ran great and Blame won by a nose> It actually is okay to admit Zenyatta is a very good horse. Its not against the rules.

Everyone has admitted she is very good. I realize it's in the Zenyatta for HOY playbook to make everything overly dramatic, but it's not necessary.

[Dahoss9698]

There ya go:ThmbUp:

If you take away the numbers and the competition in each race that both Zen & Blame won this year (plus the fact Zen beat every other colt in the Classic and damned near beat Blame), and just use the Grade of races...Zen won 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3 :)

Everyone can look at this HoY race in so many different ways, that it becomes apparent that there is no way for anyone to win the argument :bang: ...

we just gotta wait til the votes are in, and then which ever horse comes out on top, everyone will have to accept it...and, IMO, the Zen voters will accept Blame winning better than the other way around;)

Wow. So much wrong with this I wouldn't even know where to begin.

[Charlie D]

There ya go:ThmbUp:

If you take away the numbers and the competition in each race that both Zen & Blame won this year (plus the fact Zen beat every other colt in the Classic and damned near beat Blame), and just use the Grade of races...Zen won 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3 :)

Everyone can look at this HoY race in so many different ways, that it becomes apparent that there is no way for anyone to win the argument :bang: ...

we just gotta wait til the votes are in, and then which ever horse comes out on top, everyone will have to accept it...and, IMO, the Zen voters will accept Blame winning better than the other way around;)



If you take away the numbers, then obviously you can not use this.

Zen won 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3

[Spalding No!]

I realize it's in the Zenyatta for HOY playbook to make everything overly dramatic, but it's not necessary.

There was literally a story on the BH today about her being at Lane's End and having to "overcome adversity as a broodmare, just as she did in her racing career" I presume because of the weather.

Maybe they should breed her to Ivan Denisovich at Coolmore. They can call the foal "Zeka".

[cj]

Wow. So much wrong with this I wouldn't even know where to begin.

Do a FTFY, she loves those.

[Grits]

This is from a piece at BloodHorse this afternoon, titled, "Zenyatta Adapting Smoothly To Farm Life."

Read down several paragraphs so you can view the shots. They're nice.

. . . . BH is hustling lots of photos. If subscriptions are down maybe they can make it up in photos of Z. Heck, between their commemorative issue for her and the photos their profit and loss statement may be much improved from last year's. Magazine sales flourishing along with other print editions of the day.

For most female racehorses, making the adjustment to farm life isn’t a difficult process and Farish predicted Zenyatta would adapt to a different routine with little drama.

“Some (maiden) mares don’t come in until after the breeding season has started,” he said. “After they get to the farm, they’ll be bred within a week or two without anything special happening. Zenyatta has a perfect amount of time. She’ll have plenty of time to acclimate to the farm and to adjust to her new life.”
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/60293/zenyatta-adapting-smoothly-to-farm-life#ixzz17rI7bvkd

[tucker6]

If you take away the numbers and the competition in each race that both Zen & Blame won this year (plus the fact Zen beat every other colt in the Classic and damned near beat Blame), and just use the Grade of races...Zen won 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3

... but you can't Joanie. That's the point, and the only point. Otherwise, why not pick HOY based on dressage as stated earlier by someone.

This is not a popularity contest, nor a review of a three year career. It's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately award. In that vein, Blame has done more lately, and deserves the crown.

[FenceBored]

This is from a piece at BloodHorse this afternoon, titled, "Zenyatta Adapting Smoothly To Farm Life."

Read down several paragraphs so you can view the shots. They're nice.

. . . . BH is hustling lots of photos. If subscriptions are down maybe they can make it up in photos of Z. Heck, between their commemorative issue for her and the photos their profit and loss statement may be much improved from last year's. Magazine sales flourishing along with other print editions of the day.


Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/60293/zenyatta-adapting-smoothly-to-farm-life#ixzz17rI7bvkd

Yes, but they'll have to ban Claiborne ads for Blame in any issue with Zenyatta in it or risk the wrath of the faithful.

[joanied]

If you take away the numbers, then obviously you can not use this.

I think you know the numbers I speak of are the Beyers...down to the facts it's still Zenyatta 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3 Grade I's.

[cj]

I think you know the numbers I speak of are the Beyers...down to the facts it's still Zenyatta 5 Grade I's to Blame's 3 Grade I's.

If it were that simple many, many more females would have been Horse of the Year.

[joanied]

... but you can't Joanie. That's the point, and the only point. Otherwise, why not pick HOY based on dressage as stated earlier by someone.

This is not a popularity contest, nor a review of a three year career. It's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately award. In that vein, Blame has done more lately, and deserves the crown.

No, it isn't a popularity contest, and I am not considering her entire career, or any of her personality qualities...just her record for 2010;what grade of races she's won compared to Blame...
it's not a 'what have you done for me lately' either...it's for what a horse did for the entire year ...not lately and Zen won 2 more Grade I's than Blame did.
Why is that so hard to understand?

[joanied]

If it were that simple many, many more females would have been Horse of the Year.

And what would be wrong with that? She won 5 Grade I races this year, Blame won 3...I realize the voters factor in other things, and I'm sure each has their own set of 'rules' as to what they do factor in, and one of those factors is the number of Grade I races a horse wins in the year.
Seems simple enough to me.

[cj]

And what would be wrong with that? She won 5 Grade I races this year, Blame won 3...I realize the voters factor in other things, and I'm sure each has their own set of 'rules' as to what they do factor in, and one of those factors is the number of Grade I races a horse wins in the year.
Seems simple enough to me.

Because it is a lazy way to do it. Why not actually evaluate how good the horses were and what they accomplished?

[joanied]

Do a FTFY, she loves those.

Way to :rolleyes: go, moderator man...good example of how to be civil here :ThmbDown:

[cj]

Way to :rolleyes: go, moderator man...good example of how to be civil here :ThmbDown:

You have the sense of humor of a gnat.

[joanied]

You have the sense of humor of a gnat.

Pretty bold to say that when you don't know me...you were not being funny...and if you were, you ain't much of a comedian.

[cj]

Pretty bold to say that when you don't know me...you were not being funny...and if you were, you ain't much of a comedian.

Fair enough, funny is in the eye of the beholder.

[joanied]

Fair enough, funny is in the eye of the beholder.

:) Ok, then.

[FenceBored]

Here's the 3-year of Zenyatta's opponents. Notice how her opponents in her 4yo campaign before the BC were as strong as her BC opponents, and nothing like her distaff opposition the past two years. Food for thought.

I've included lines looking at last year's distaffers excluding Life is Sweet to provide that particular contrast.

The similar 3 line for Blame's year follows Zenyatta's data.

And as a special holiday bonus for the Rachel hating gloaters out there, the line for the 10 (count 'em, 10) opponents Rachel won over this year.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Another great post FB. Thanks.

[Grits]

Another great post FB. Thanks.

FB always comes through with the nuts and bolts of the matter!!! ;)

When HOY voters are checking in--this stuff is invaluable, given the attention necessary to read through hundreds of posts.

[Tom]

You think they check in here to get their picks?

[Saratoga_Mike]

FB always comes through with the nuts and bolts of the matter!!! ;)

When HOY voters are checking in--this stuff is invaluable, given the attention necessary to read through hundreds of posts.

Completely agree, not sure where he compiles the info from, but it's great!

[thaskalos]

Completely agree, not sure where he compiles the info from, but it's great!
God help the poor soul who incurs the wrath of FenceBored.

He is clearly not someone that you want as an enemy...:)

[Sugar Ron]

A pity Rachel Alexandar could make the BC - she would have had the same view as QR. Like I said, the best horse didn't win the BC this year.

Fine work, delayjf

Yeah, would've been great fun to see RA get hammered on Cup day ... but watching Z's caddy ambush her at FG ... and that longshot Shug filly whip her in her first classic distance test at Toga was more than satisfying this year.


And yes, agree wholeheartedly ... the best horse ran second in the BCC.

[BluegrassProf]

Fine work, delayjf

Yeah, would've been great fun to see RA get hammered on Cup day ... but watching Z's caddy ambush her at FG ... and that longshot Shug filly whip her in her first classic distance test at Toga was more than satisfying this year.


And yes, agree wholeheartedly ... the best horse ran second in the BCC.Watch out, Fence [et al]...this guy's got serious ammo.

;)

[FenceBored]

Fine work, delayjf

Yeah, would've been great fun to see RA get hammered on Cup day ... but watching Z's caddy ambush her at FG ... and that longshot Shug filly whip her in her first classic distance test at Toga was more than satisfying this year.


And yes, agree wholeheartedly ... the best horse ran second in the BCC.

You just don't see the kind of quality trolling we used to get in the olden days. Sad, really.

[Sugar Ron]

You just don't see the kind of quality trolling we used to get in the olden days. Sad, really.

Check out the "Derby Trail" board

Place is crawlin' with "trolls"...

[FenceBored]

Check out the "Derby Trail" board

Place is crawlin' with "trolls"...

I thought you said they banned you. :confused:

[FenceBored]

You think they check in here to get their picks?

They could do worse.

This is PaceAdvantage.com for your discussion and fun, and if you're not careful you may learn something before it's done. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFDBW7Xgagg)

[FenceBored]

First off, congratulations to Switch on her G1 win. This gets rid of the knock that Zenyatta didn't beat a single G1 winner this year. Go Switch.

Anywho, here's about the last iteration of stuff before we're done. No Advantage is entered in an ungraded stake at Parx (I think) tomorrow, and that's the only horse watched that will race before the end of the year.

This time, let's look at rankings of some key categories. Treating the two HOY contenders as co-HOYs and comparing their numbers to those of the last ten actual HOYs. As you can see Zenyatta's figures are near the bottom in every category, whereas Blame's are kind of middle-of-the-road.

Again, it really draws attention to the competition Mineshaft faced, or lack thereof. But, maybe he makes up for it with that 2nd place in the Avg Winning Beyer category, whereas Zenyatta brings up the rear in that department.

[Fager Fan]

You really need all that crap to be able to assess a horse? If you did, then it had to really blow for you on BC day, because there's no way you could use that junk to assess Zenyatta and figure she'd be within a head of winning.

So how much did you lose on the Classic? I'm starting to think that's what so many of you guys have against this mare - she shocked the hell out of you in the BC and blew your tickets to pieces.

[BluegrassProf]

:D

PWNED!

[FenceBored]

You really need all that crap to be able to assess a horse? If you did, then it had to really blow for you on BC day, because there's no way you could use that junk to assess Zenyatta and figure she'd be within a head of winning.

So how much did you lose on the Classic? I'm starting to think that's what so many of you guys have against this mare - she shocked the hell out of you in the BC and blew your tickets to pieces.

I said Zenyatta was a lock to win the Classic. Search it, it's true.

Now tell me Zenyatta's loss cost me a bunch of money and that's why I'm so bitter against her. :rolleyes:

[DeanT]

Fence, did you standardize any of that to include the fact that Zenyatta won every CA grade 1 race in CA for three years, so it was pretty hard for her to race a lot of female grade 1 winners?

Other than that, cool chart dude! Great work.

[elysiantraveller]

First off, congratulations to Switch on her G1 win. This gets rid of the knock that Zenyatta didn't beat a single G1 winner this year. Go Switch.

Anywho, here's about the last iteration of stuff before we're done. No Advantage is entered in an ungraded stake at Parx (I think) tomorrow, and that's the only horse watched that will race before the end of the year.

This time, let's look at rankings of some key categories. Treating the two HOY contenders as co-HOYs and comparing their numbers to those of the last ten actual HOYs. As you can see Zenyatta's figures are near the bottom in every category, whereas Blame's are kind of middle-of-the-road.

Again, it really draws attention to the competition Mineshaft faced, or lack thereof. But, maybe he makes up for it with that 2nd place in the Avg Winning Beyer category, whereas Zenyatta brings up the rear in that department.

Great data FB! Sheds some light on the HOTY debate and makes GZ look like a monster.

[Fager Fan]

I said Zenyatta was a lock to win the Classic. Search it, it's true.

Now tell me Zenyatta's loss cost me a bunch of money and that's why I'm so bitter against her. :rolleyes:

I don't much feel like searching because that means I'll have to read through every post you made from now back to whenever to find it. If you show it to me, I'll believe it, and I'll be really interested in seeing how you explained reaching the conclusion that she was a lock given how delighted you are in trying to demonstrate her mediocrity.

As someone else has since pointed out, how do you figure in that she pretty much won every main track route G1 in her division in CA over the past 3 years, leaving few others in the division with the ability to claim G1 status?

[FenceBored]

Fence, did you standardize any of that to include the fact that Zenyatta won every CA grade 1 race in CA for three years, so it was pretty hard for her to race a lot of female grade 1 winners?

Other than that, cool chart dude! Great work.

Why would I need to standardize it? The California Main Track F/M Route G1s aren't the only G1s (even the only Main Track F/M Route G1s) around. Rinterval, Striking Dancer, and Zardana were all in the G1 Spinster at Keeneland in October, i.e. 30% of the field were Zenyatta foes. If any of them had won, then Zenyatta would have beaten someone who'd won a G1 this year. As it was, none of them even hit the board. Even Switch's win was in a race for which Zenyatta herself wouldn't have been eligible, but I certainly count it as Zenyatta's having beaten a G1 winner.

[DeanT]

Why would I need to standardize it? The California Main Track F/M Route G1s aren't the only G1s (even the only Main Track F/M Route G1s) around. Rinterval, Striking Dancer, and Zardana were all in the G1 Spinster at Keeneland in October, i.e. 30% of the field were Zenyatta foes. If any of them had won, then Zenyatta would have beaten someone who'd won a G1 this year. As it was, none of them even hit the board. Even Switch's win was in a race for which Zenyatta herself wouldn't have been eligible, but I certainly count it as Zenyatta's having beaten a G1 winner.

Just wondering since you stated this:

Notice how her opponents in her 4yo campaign before the BC were as strong as her BC opponents, and nothing like her distaff opposition the past two years. Food for thought.

Food for thought I think is standardizing the obvious - she did not race at three, so there were several Cali grade 1 winners/graded stakes winners she faced who raced the year before.

At ages 4 and 5 she won all the grade ones, so she faced fewer because no one but her won any the year before.

Add to that that not too many owners in a tough game would want to ship to meet her, when they could go to an easier spot. That is simple horse management in a tough game to slug a buck.

I like your chart a lot and it is really cool, but it is not much of a surprise that Switch won a grade 1 last week. It is a lot easier to win one when Zenyatta is not in the field.

[FenceBored]

I don't much feel like searching because that means I'll have to read through every post you made from now back to whenever to find it. If you show it to me, I'll believe it, and I'll be really interested in seeing how you explained reaching the conclusion that she was a lock given how delighted you are in trying to demonstrate her mediocrity.


:rolleyes: "Hand feed me, Daddy."


As someone else has since pointed out, how do you figure in that she pretty much won every main track route G1 in her division in CA over the past 3 years, leaving few others in the division with the ability to claim G1 status?

How many G1s are there in the Main Track F/M Route division of US Graded Stakes? How many did Zenyatta win this year? Do you think it might be possible for someone Zenyatta beat to win one of those other races?

[FenceBored]

Just wondering since you stated this:



Food for thought I think is standardizing - she did not race at three, so there were several Cali grade 1 winners/graded stakes winners she faced who raced the year before.

At ages 5 and 6 she won all the grade ones, so she faced fewer because no one but her won any the year before.


Immaterial to my figures. I'm only counting races from the 'current' year, regardless of what year that is, so who won what 'last' year or 'next' year isn't relevant. In 2008 the G1 winners counted are distaffers who had won a G1 in 2008, not those who won one in 2007, or 2009. Here's an example from this year, if you look at the earlier charts I list Blame as having beaten 8 G1 winners. Though not named they are Zenyatta, Quality Road, Espoir City (a JPN G1, not US if you're wondering), Haynesfield, Giant Oak, General Quarters, Lookin at Lucky and Paddy O' Prado. But, he also beat Mine That Bird, Bullsbay, and Macho Again this year and they all won G1s in 2009. They aren't counted as G1 winners Blame beat this year, because they didn't win a G1 this year. As a matter of fact, they feature more prominently in the '% winless' category.




Add to that that not too many owners in a tough game would want to ship to meet her, when they could go to an easier spot. That is simple horse management in a tough game to slug a buck.


That's a good point, but how many Eastern/Midwestern horses have been shipping into California for non-BC main track graded stakes since the synthetic came in? Zenyatta's record no doubt had an effect, but it's not everything. That 0-43 stat in the BC got folks attention, too. And it also didn't stop folks whose girls had run against Zenyatta from shipping out to try a G1 elsewhere (like Tough Tiz's Sis, who won the 2008 Beldame).


I like your chart a lot and it is really cool, but it is not much of a surprise that Switch won a grade 1 last week. It is a lot easier to win one when Zenyatta is not in the field.

That was Switch's 3rd try at a G1 without Zenyatta in the field, and the 11th try for a girl Zenyatta had beaten this year. 1 for 11 doesn't exactly scream 'the only thing holding these girls back is Zenyatta.'

[BluegrassProf]

:D

Honest to goodness, the dialogue in this thread is an ongoing delight. Bigtime kudos to FB for breaking it down to the most basic denominators at every available opportunity. :ThmbUp:

[DeanT]

[QUOTE=FenceBored]Immaterial to my figures. /QUOTE]

I don't think they are immaterial. Unless my math is wrong, and I am a porcupine, which might be possible.

But good reply tho.

[cj]

I like your chart a lot and it is really cool, but it is not much of a surprise that Switch won a grade 1 last week. It is a lot easier to win one when Zenyatta is not in the field.

It is also a lot easier for her sprinting on dirt.

[DeanT]

It is also a lot easier for her sprinting on dirt.

It was euphemistic.

You guys got me. No more Zenyatta discussions.

And I thought the track emails about this boycott were tough :D

[cj]

It was euphemistic.

You guys got me. No more Zenyatta discussions.

And I thought the track emails about this boycott were tough :D

Switch is a pretty good horse, I'm just saying counting her in the "stats" is as misleading as it is counting Paddy O' Prado and General Quarters for Blame.

[Tom]

I gotta read this whole thread......just as soon as I get done watching some paint dry. :rolleyes:

[FenceBored]

Switch is a pretty good horse, I'm just saying counting her in the "stats" is as misleading as it is counting Paddy O' Prado and General Quarters for Blame.

Jeeze, you do things a certain way to minimize complaints from one quarter, and BOOM, you get smacked in the back of the head. Good thing I don't keep anything in there, otherwise it might hurt.

[FenceBored]

I gotta read this whole thread......just as soon as I get done watching some paint dry. :rolleyes:

That's kinda funny, coming from the guy who posted the first reply. :rolleyes:

[FenceBored]

[FenceBored]Immaterial to my figures. [/close]

I don't think they are immaterial. Unless my math is wrong, and I am a porcupine, which might be possible.

But good reply tho.

Let's compare it to Blame and two of the races he won: the Stephen Foster and the Whitney. Now, Blame did not win those races last year, so other horses (Macho Again and Bullsbay respectively) did. If I'm understanding you correctly, then you're thinking that these two were 'available' to be beaten in 2010 and counted as G1 winners beat. But, Blame did beat them, and I don't count those two as G1 winners he beat. For the purposes of 2010 their 2009 wins are immaterial. What happened in 2009 stays in 2009.

Similarly, the 3 G1 winners of 2008 Zenyatta beat prior to the BC, were Ginger Punch [Ogden Phipps, Go For Wand, and Personal Ensign], Double Trouble (BRZ) [Santa Maria], and Tough Tiz's Sis [Ruffian]. All 2008 winners of races run in 2008. No 2007 wins needed or counted.

[Tom]

That's kinda funny, coming from the guy who posted the first reply. :rolleyes:

Yeah, a month and a half ago.
It's like dinner guests who never leave.
Oops, gotta run, just heard some grass starting up.....

[FenceBored]

Yeah, a month and a half ago.
It's like dinner guests who never leave.
Oops, gotta run, just heard some grass starting up.....

Here's your hat, what's your hurry?

[Tom]

Don't want to miss anything exciting. That grass can sneak up on you.

[FenceBored]

Don't want to miss anything exciting. That grass can sneak up on you.

If you're watching your grass growing in the Finger Lakes region on January first, I'd be more worried about the sherriff's deputies sneaking up on you.


No Advantage gets it done: No Advantage ends 10-race losing streak in Auld Lang Syne (http://www.drf.com/news/no-advantage-ends-10-race-losing-streak-auld-lang-syne).

This lowers Blame's '% winless' to 14.29% and raises his rank in that category from 7th to 5th best figure.

[Tom]

50 yesterday.....looking for 52 today (alright, 32 Sunday :mad:)