Ragozin Insider: Figures show Zenyatta, Blame in dead heat

[andymays]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/november/12/ragozin-insider-figures-show-zenyatta-blame-in-dead-heat.aspx

Excerpt:

Both the victorious colt and the now once-beaten mare came out of the Classic with rounded off Ragozin speed figures of 2 for their courageous efforts in the Classic.

While Zenyatta’s figure was boosted by the ground lost with her wide late rally, Blame received credit for carrying three more pounds than the runner-up (126-123).

For each, the Classic also represented something other than their top figure of the season.

[The_Knight_Sky]

A tie.... http://i53.tinypic.com/dha6vs.gif

...is like kissing your sister.


Blame won. Credit where it is due please.

[ihatenyra]

Rags often give horses that lose lower numbers than the winner so it's no surpise that a photo gets the same #'s

[Stillriledup]

A tie.... http://i53.tinypic.com/dha6vs.gif

...is like kissing your sister.


Blame won. Credit where it is due please.

Credit, yes. Enough credit to get him HOY? No, not this time. :eek:

[Nets]

Just a matter of time til someone posts some grainy picture claiming to show Zenyatta actually won the race.:D

[rastajenk]

Why did she get credit for a "wide, late rally?" Do the Rags folks contend there is ground lost for picking a middle path down the stretch? Cause she sure wasn't wide through the turn.

[Valuist]

Ragozin numbers don't take pace into account (same w/T-Graph as well), nor do they take into account bias. Yet they take into account relatively meaningless factors like weight so they aren't the end-all, be all.

[andymays]

The point of my putting up the thread was that there seemed to be a lot of people claiming that Zenyatta was best by open lengths.

[Nets]

The point of my putting up the thread was that there seemed to be a lot of people claiming that Zenyatta was best by open lengths.

I got that. I was just being a punk......or in keeping with the season, a turkey.....lol

[Tom]

Just a matter of time til someone posts some grainy picture claiming to show Zenyatta actually won the race.:D

Here you go...

[FenceBored]

Here you go...

Wow, looking at that picture Blame has got to be the craziest conformed horse I've ever seen. :eek:

[dylbert]

Redboard retort: I cash win, place, exacta, & trifecta tickets with Blame as winner. None of my friend's Zenyatta tickets would cash. So Rags numbers are meaningless...

Blame is retired & Zenyatta is semi-retired (or retired). Therefore, Rags numbers are meaningless...

Maybe Oaklawn Park's leader, Mr. Cella, can put up $5 million for Blame-Zenyatta match race there in January? That might lend meaning to figures.

[Cardus]

Andy, what do you mean by "rounded off" figures?

[andymays]

Andy, what do you mean by "rounded off" figures?
That's the article. Maybe someone that actually uses the figures can comment.

[pandy]

Didn't thoroughgraph or ragozin have Quality Road with an extremely fast figure? If so, the fact that Blame proved that he is clearly a better horse than Quality Road shows you just how good he is, he beat Quality Road twice, with a much tougher trip in the Whitney, and also beat Zenyatta. Blame is quite a horse, what a shame they are retiring him.

[andymays]

Didn't thoroughgraph or ragozin have Quality Road with an extremely fast figure? If so, the fact that Blame proved that he is clearly a better horse than Quality Road shows you just how good he is, he beat Quality Road twice, with a much tougher trip in the Whitney, and also beat Zenyatta. Blame is quite a horse, what a shame they are retiring him.

Quality Road was never going to run a good race with the spot he had during the race. As I said earlier if he had drawn outside he would have run much better.

[hracingplyr]

picked blame.

[Bullet Plane]

Didn't thoroughgraph or ragozin have Quality Road with an extremely fast figure? If so, the fact that Blame proved that he is clearly a better horse than Quality Road shows you just how good he is, he beat Quality Road twice, with a much tougher trip in the Whitney, and also beat Zenyatta. Blame is quite a horse, what a shame they are retiring him.

Yep. Both QR and Z had run -1's on the Sheets. The best Blame had run was a 1, yet he beat both of them.

[Cardus]

That's the article. Maybe someone that actually uses the figures can comment.

Without having read the article, I am guessing that "rounded off" was used because the figure did not have a fraction, as well.

[thaskalos]

The point of my putting up the thread was that there seemed to be a lot of people claiming that Zenyatta was best by open lengths.Not from a speed figure perspective...

[Bullet Plane]

Andy, what do you mean by "rounded off" figures?
Means, bascially, they ran the same number. One may of been a quarter point faster. Instead of saying one ran 2 1/4, and one ran 2 1/2, they said they both ran 2 rounded off.

[Cardus]

Means, bascially, they ran the same number. One may of been a quarter point faster. Instead of saying one ran 2 1/4, and one ran 2 1/2, they said they both ran 2 rounded off.

If one was a 1/4 point faster, I'd like to know. Either I'll go to the website to see if the figs are posted or have someone contact Jake to get the numbers.

The "rounded off" phrase is odd to me; I've never heard it before, related to Ragozin numbers.

It's a small point, I guess.

[Bullet Plane]

If one was a 1/4 point faster, I'd like to know. Either I'll go to the website to see if the figs are posted or have someone contact Jake to get the numbers.

The "rounded off" phrase is odd to me; I've never heard it before, related to Ragozin numbers.

It's a small point, I guess.
Yeah, I've never heard that either. Blame was 2 1/4 and Z was 2 1/2. It's posted on the website.

[rastajenk]

I'm still wondering where big Z lost ground, or why she gets extra credit for it.

[garyoz]

I'm still wondering where big Z lost ground, or why she gets extra credit for it.

The Sheets and Thorograph adjust for ground loss (e.g., 3 path on a turn). Also a quarter point is significant in the fig.

[rastajenk]

Right; but she wasn't wide. At least, not until they straightened coming out of the turn.

[garyoz]

Looks like the two path on the first turn and the 2 or 3 path on the second turn. So there would be some adjustment. I'm not a fig maker, but did read Rags book and used them back in the day.

[Some_One]

TGraph has the same ground loss for both horses 2w3w, with Blame receiving a half point better ratings.

[Bullet Plane]

I'm still wondering where big Z lost ground, or why she gets extra credit for it.
I think that is the point. She is not getting much credit for being wide. That's why Blame has a slightly higher figure. 1 point is 2 length in routes at the middle distances, so Blame being a quarter point better is not much better.

The Beyers pretty much have them the same. I'm not aware of all possible speed figures, but I'd guess they all pretty much have them the same. Because there were no wide trips, etc.

I thought that she would get a wide trip in this race. But the speed spread the field out so much, nobody went extremely wide that I noticed, or could detect in the charts.

[NYPlayer]

...Both QR and Z had run -1's on the Sheets. The best Blame had run was a 1, yet he beat both of them.

Past performance is no guarantee of future success.

[LemonSoupKid]

Zenyatta's a great horse but I agree with most of you, the Monday morning QB'ing or excuses otherwise here reek of emotion and ignorance of all the advantages Zenyatta had going for her.

I had her 2nd-3rd-4th in my exotic wheels for a reason. Winner on dirt previously but not often, now against a crop of legit males? This was clearly not 2009, which although possibly surprising at the time held no candle to the competition in this race.

That said, who cares about Ragozin's "lost ground" unless it was just SO out of the ordinary (obviously wasn't) that it was a legit excuse? Ummm, Len, ever hear of racing style? Last time I watched (thousands of races), when you are a closer, you get:

A) problems navigating when inching up to your stretch run (or through it)
B) a wide trip, because of (A), trying to decrease probability of badness

Add that to the fact that this was an absolutely perfect pace scenario for her, as you all have said, and you come to conclusion that I did before the race --- it's gonna be hard for her. The way most of us saw it, she got what she wanted and still didn't win it. Hey, that's what happens when you are in with 11 other horses, they are males, and you aren't on your favorite surface.

Mike Smith and the media will never cop to that. Blame was better. Period.

Ragozin's, or anyone else's for that matter, distance traveled might matter, but only the in the future when you are running with something like 6-7, instead of 12, opponents.