Vertical vs horizontal exotics

[Valuist]

Since I first started playing the Pic 3 twenty years ago, and later on with the P4, I always used to feel that the horizontal exotics were better than the verticals. It certainly made sense for much of the 90s, as the public initially struggled with understanding how to play the bet. But as time went on, they eventually got smarter. And the payoff that would be $500 in 1992 now returns half of that.

But I don't see price erosion in exacta, trifecta and/or superfecta payoffs. OK, the insane overlays in supers have been deflated by the dime tickets, but IMO the change hasn't been as big as in the P3s over the past 15-20 years, and to a lesser extent, the P4s.

My guess is that the public spends much more time and energy focusing on picking a winner. And relatively speaking, they are decent at it. Certainly much better than they are at estimating who will run 2nd...or 3rd (or 4th).

Each case is different, but I think its a mistake for bettors to ignore opportunities in the exacta, trifecta and super pools because they want to save more bullets for the P4.

[thaskalos]

Since I first started playing the Pic 3 twenty years ago, and later on with the P4, I always used to feel that the horizontal exotics were better than the verticals. It certainly made sense for much of the 90s, as the public initially struggled with understanding how to play the bet. But as time went on, they eventually got smarter. And the payoff that would be $500 in 1992 now returns half of that.

But I don't see price erosion in exacta, trifecta and/or superfecta payoffs. OK, the insane overlays in supers have been deflated by the dime tickets, but IMO the change hasn't been as big as in the P3s over the past 15-20 years, and to a lesser extent, the P4s.

My guess is that the public spends much more time and energy focusing on picking a winner. And relatively speaking, they are decent at it. Certainly much better than they are at estimating who will run 2nd...or 3rd (or 4th).

Each case is different, but I think its a mistake for bettors to ignore opportunities in the exacta, trifecta and super pools because they want to save more bullets for the P4.I couldn't agree more. What has happened to the pick-3 payoffs in recent years is downright tragic. I am of the opinion that the trifectas have declined too...but the pick-3's decline has been the most noticable by far.

[tbwinner]

Pick 3s at Mountaineer suck...just saying.

But, I really have mixed feelings on the lower denominations in Pick 3s and Pick 4s. It's most seen by having Pick 3/4s with all/most favorites pay more than expected, and Pick 3/4s with more longshots pays less than expected/parlay, due to more people spreading the tickets wide and deep.

I was super surprised with a nice Pick 3 payoff at Churchill on Sunday (could've been due to people taking off Sunday after BC weekend) that had 2 favorites and a 6-1 shot paying something like $160 for 50 cents. However, at Keeneland there was a Pick 3 that paid $40 for 50 cents with a favorite, a 5-1, and a 3-1 coming in. Didn't like that.

On the other hand, that's why I like Mountaineer's superfectas. If you get the favorite out of the top 3 (and usually MNR has a huge favorite in each race) then the things pays amazingly. 50-cent minimum so it can be expensive if you're used to playing 10centers.

[BMustang]

I like to play Mountaineer's P3's because there are only two of them per card, so you can concentrate more money into less plays, resulting in a higher win percentage, sometimes the rewards are large, sometimes not so.

When I play the Mountain, I handicap the double, and then play the second race exacta if not alive. I play the 3-4-5 Pick Three and then play the Race 4 and 5 exactas whether alive or not, and then do the same for 6-7-8.

Seems to help me manage my money, make more informed wagers, and double up on my selections in the Pick 3s. Works for me!

[menifee]

I was an advocate for the dime supers, but I really think the .50 cent trifectas and .50 cent pick 4's need to stop. I believe they are killing the pools for those players who use longshots in sequences. Players can spread easily and it has the result of increasing payout when favorites hit in a sequence and lowering payout when longshots hit.

I have memories of Breeders Cup pasts when you could hit a 15-20k pick 4 with logical horses in each sequence. I don't know if that is possible today given that someone can buy 5 horses a race in each leg of a pick 4 sequence for approximately $400.

[Greyfox]

If I play a track, I play the Late Pick 3.

If I lose out on the Late Pick 3 in the first two legs, I play the trifecta in the last leg.

Over time, that has worked for me.

First choice= Pick 3's - It's easier to pick winners, than combos.

Second choice = tri = More thought, but not impossible.

Third choice = If I haven't done well at being close in the first two legs of the late Pick 3, go home and try tomorrow. I don't have to bet or chase money.
There is always another surf wave coming tomorrow.

[Si2see]

But, I really have mixed feelings on the lower denominations in Pick 3s and Pick 4s. It's most seen by having Pick 3/4s with all/most favorites pay more than expected, and Pick 3/4s with more longshots pays less than expected/parlay, due to more people spreading the tickets wide and deep.

I was super surprised with a nice Pick 3 payoff at Churchill on Sunday (could've been due to people taking off Sunday after BC weekend) that had 2 favorites and a 6-1 shot paying something like $160 for 50 cents. However, at Keeneland there was a Pick 3 that paid $40 for 50 cents with a favorite, a 5-1, and a 3-1 coming in. Didn't like that.



I agree with you about the pick 3s, they should NOT be a .50 cent wager. However since some of the main tracks have started taking .50 cent pick 4 wagers, I have hit some very nice tickets that I would have never been able to hit had it not been for the fact that I am able to spread more than I would with the $1 wager. The dollar wager makes me usually find a horse that I single and I almost have to look at that single as " Ok, my play is $36. Would I wager $36 on this horse to win that I have as a single " if not why even throw bullets at the wager........ with a 50 cent ticket my approach is changed almost automatically on most occasions. Jason