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View Full Version : Beyer's take on Zenyatta post Classic


firstoffclaim
11-07-2010, 09:09 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/07/AR2010110704076.html

andymays
11-07-2010, 09:13 PM
Excerpt:


However, Zenyatta's fans can make a reasonable claim that she should be considered the greatest U.S. filly or mare of all time. Any argument on the subject will be complicated by the fact that Zenyatta's one-dimensional stretch-running style would put her at a tactical disadvantage on the dirt in a hypothetical matchup against other great fillies such as Ruffian and Rachel Alexandra. But Zenyatta's historic winning streak and her two performances in the Classic constitute a formidable body of work, and nobody ought to hold her one defeat against her.

andymays
11-07-2010, 09:14 PM
Good article in my opinion.

FantasticDan
11-07-2010, 09:18 PM
Definitely good. Very well-reasoned. Not that you'd expect anything less from Beyer.

Izzy2742
11-07-2010, 09:20 PM
Nice article. He definitely gives her credit, which he didn't have to do. I think it is difficult for some of us to separate being a fan from being a handicapper. It will be difficult to assess her place in history, but for me, I have thoroughly enjoyed my "Zenyatta Fever!"

Grits
11-07-2010, 09:24 PM
Cream always rises to the top. Again, he wrote a fine piece.

WJ47
11-07-2010, 09:50 PM
I've been waiting to hear Beyer's comments about this! Thanks for posting the link. Great article and I agree completely!

cj
11-07-2010, 10:06 PM
"According to Randy Moss, who created the Moss Pace Figures for the Daily Racing Form, Zenyatta was running as fast in the early stages of the Classic as in any of her races over the last two years. Yet she was out of contact with the rest of the field. "

Hmmm, where have I heard this before. Pretty good for not handling the track.

thaskalos
11-07-2010, 10:40 PM
"One of the greatest mares in U.S. history..."

That's what the majority of her fans on this board have been saying all along. We never compared her to the game's "all-time greats".

Personally...I can't see the reason for all our Zenyatta-based arguments all this time.

Greyfox
11-07-2010, 10:54 PM
"According to Randy Moss, who created the Moss Pace Figures for the Daily Racing Form, Zenyatta was running as fast in the early stages of the Classic as in any of her races over the last two years. Yet she was out of contact with the rest of the field. "

Hmmm, where have I heard this before. Pretty good for not handling the track.

You are a smart guy cj, without doubt.
I buy a DRF every day.
Am I missing something here?
I don't need Pace Figures or Speed Figures, made by Moss, or anyone else, as I make my own.
Am I missing something as I don't see any "PACE FIGURES" in
the DRF I buy every day?

cpitt84
11-07-2010, 10:54 PM
Nice article. He definitely gives her credit, which he didn't have to do. I think it is difficult for some of us to separate being a fan from being a handicapper. It will be difficult to assess her place in history, but for me, I have thoroughly enjoyed my "Zenyatta Fever!"

This is how I feel too.

JustRalph
11-07-2010, 11:01 PM
You are a smart guy cj, without doubt.
I buy a DRF every day.
Am I missing something here?
I don't need Pace Figures or Speed Figures, made by Moss, or anyone else, as I make my own.
Am I missing something as I don't see any "PACE FIGURES" in
the DRF I buy every day?

from DRF


HOW TO BUY THEM

There are several different options for purchasing Moss Pace Figures. A single racecard enhanced with Moss Pace Figures costs $4.50, with additional racecards for the same day costing $2.95 each. DRF.com also offers monthly, quarterly and annual plans which provide significant bulk discounts. And by purchasing this premium version of a particular racecard, you are also able to view the Moss Pace Figure Report and Sibling Summary for that same racecard. Click here to buy Moss Pace Figure Enhanced PPs

You can also purchase the Stand-Alone Moss Pace Figure Report for a charge of $2.00 per report. Monthly, quarterly and annual memberships are available for the Stand-Alone Moss Pace Figure Report, which all provide significant bulk discounts. Click here to buy the Stand-Alone Moss Pace Figure Report.

http://www1.drf.com/products/moss/moss.html?type=newspaper_copy#howtobuythem

cj
11-07-2010, 11:18 PM
Personally...I can't see the reason for all our Zenyatta-based arguments all this time.

Entertainment. Not as good as watching the Cowboys lose by half a hundred, but close.

thaskalos
11-07-2010, 11:21 PM
Entertainment. Not as good as watching the Cowboys lose by half a hundred, but close.Agreed. :ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2010, 03:53 AM
"According to Randy Moss, who created the Moss Pace Figures for the Daily Racing Form, Zenyatta was running as fast in the early stages of the Classic as in any of her races over the last two years. Yet she was out of contact with the rest of the field. "

Hmmm, where have I heard this before. Pretty good for not handling the track.Even you must admit that VISUALLY she looked absolutely awful out of the gate. That fact probably compounded the perception that she was running even slower than usual.

gm10
11-08-2010, 04:05 AM
"According to Randy Moss, who created the Moss Pace Figures for the Daily Racing Form, Zenyatta was running as fast in the early stages of the Classic as in any of her races over the last two years. Yet she was out of contact with the rest of the field. "

Hmmm, where have I heard this before. Pretty good for not handling the track.

I agree. I didn't think so until I saw the sectionals, but yes she did run faster early than she has done in a long time. That is probably one of the reasons why she actually was uncomfortable.

cj
11-08-2010, 09:33 AM
I agree. I didn't think so until I saw the sectionals, but yes she did run faster early than she has done in a long time. That is probably one of the reasons why she actually was uncomfortable.

It was also very predictable.

cj
11-08-2010, 09:34 AM
Even you must admit that VISUALLY she looked absolutely awful out of the gate. That fact probably compounded the perception that she was running even slower than usual.

To me, she always looks that way early.

gm10
11-08-2010, 09:43 AM
It was also very predictable.

Was it? I do remember you telling us that the pace would be moderate at best.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=995097&postcount=95

chickenhead
11-08-2010, 09:45 AM
they needed to go a bit faster, based on Smiths post race reaction (which yes, would have been different had she run exactly the same, but won), I believe the plan was to run a little more evenly early.

25 - 24 opening 2 quarters would have put her in the same place on the backstretch with the same half mile time as her 26 - 23 did, but a much more efficient effort. I don't think there is nearly as much difference to a top class horse between running a 26 and a 25 early compared to the difference between running 24 and 23 in the 2nd quarter. That was her largest acceleration of the race, and it took place before the half. She lost the race right there.

I think she's just an extremely lazy horse. Like mountain man said elsewhere, they seem to make a point of indulging her quirks. Like not warming up well, and walking out of the gate.

No point in second guessing them I guess, its worked pretty well. But running 26 and change and coming up short is kind of the nightmare scenario, I see why Smith is crushed. You can't expect to win BCC on dirt off that.

Maybe she can't finish well off a 25 opening quarter and I'm wrong, but that's the question they needed to have answered in this race, and they didn't.

cj
11-08-2010, 09:56 AM
Was it? I do remember you telling us that the pace would be moderate at best.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=995097&postcount=95

Jockeys are dumber than I thought.

Still, it was obvious SHE would have to run faster. I said so many times.

delayjf
11-08-2010, 10:00 AM
Zenyatta was running as fast in the early stages of the Classic as in any of her races over the last two years.
The problem I have with the above analysis is that according to Davidowitz the official beaten lengths used by the drf is questionable - he fells they underestimate how far back she really was. In her last race she was 4 1/2 lengths behind a opening 24 3/5 1st quarter, half of which was run around the first turn. The entire opening 1/4 ( 1 1/4 distance) is run on a straight away at CD which is condusive to a faster fraction. I suppose one could time her from the 1/4 pole to the finish line.

cj
11-08-2010, 10:02 AM
The problem I have with the above analysis is that according to Davidowitz the official beaten lengths used by the drf is questionable - he fells they underestimate how far back she really was. In her last race she was 4 1/2 lengths behind a opening 24 3/5 1st quarter, half of which was run around the first turn. The entire opening 1/4 ( 1 1/4 distance) is run on a straight away at CD which is condusive to a faster fraction. I suppose one could time her from the 1/4 pole to the finish line.

Moss adjusts for turns and such. Now, accuracy, probably not.

delayjf
11-08-2010, 10:06 AM
25 - 24 opening 2 quarters would have put her in the same place on the backstretch with the same half mile time as her 26 - 23 did, but a much more efficient effort. I don't think there is nearly as much difference to a top class horse between running a 26 and a 25 early compared to the difference between running 24 and 23 in the 2nd quarter. That was her largest acceleration of the race, and it took place before the half. She lost the race right there.

Good points and yet she almost pulled it off:ThmbUp:

Watching her previous race, I remember thinking she seemed on the bit in the opening quarter moving smoothly.

eastie
11-08-2010, 11:35 AM
Definitely good. Very well-reasoned. Not that you'd expect anything less from Beyer.

Too bad Little Andy can't give Zenyatta any love like Big Andy did here. But then that would be admitting he was wrong, and that the Zenyatta fans were right. No sign of him or Duh Hoss, how convenient. I never saw anyone go out of their way more to knock a hoss every chance they got. Whether it be her competition, schedule, ability on poly.. anything. One would think they would at least have the class to man up. I wonder if you were more happy that she just got beat, or more sick that she ran that well. I guess you would have married that tri and super if you weren't so stubborn and hard headed..:rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2010, 11:41 AM
Too bad Little Andy can't give Zenyatta any love like Big Andy did here. But then that would be admitting he was wrong, and that the Zenyatta fans were right. No sign of him or Duh Hoss, how convenient. I never saw anyone go out of their way more to knock a hoss every chance they got. Whether it be her competition, schedule, ability on poly.. anything. One would think they would at least have the class to man up. I wonder if you were more happy that she just got beat, or more sick that she ran that well. I guess you would have married that tri and super if you weren't so stubborn and hard headed..:rolleyes:Have you manned up about your ridiculous Get Stormy baloney you were posting not too long ago?

And Dahoss isn't posting because I pissed him off with my antics. So much for our supposed "clique" right eastie?

Oh, and she did LOSE eastie...not sure what you think TLG and Dahoss need to "man up" about...Just like you guys were telling us it didn't matter how much Z won by, or how fast she ran...all that mattered was that she won.

You can't have it both ways now that she LOST.

ArlJim78
11-08-2010, 11:45 AM
Beyer never mentions what I wanted to hear, that she handled the dirt and the class hike much better that he thought she would and that he never believed she would be in the win photo. That gets swept under the rug by him saying that it was her best finish or most impressive performance ever. I don't think that's true, I think many of her races had similarly impressive performances and that he simply didn't recognize them as such because he was like so many others fixated on the competition or the surface, or the Beyer number.

and of course he didn't actually make a prediction about how she would run, but in his prior columns he did make it seem that she was really up against it.
Blame was his pick so he gets credit for that.

He is on the money when he talks about where Zenyatta belongs rankingwise in a historical sense. Yes many people get carried away on that. But what most interests me is how did he play that race, or how did he rank Zenyatta's chances? All I can find is that he said the odds weren't in her favor, but what does that mean. I didn't find many of the Zenyatta non-believers going on record as to where they thought she would finish and I'm sure Beyer didn't figure her to be half a head back of Blame while embarrassing horses like Quality Road, Haynesfield and Lookin At Lucky.

yes she was an overhyped underlay.
yes some regard her too highly amongst the all time horses.

But to me these are sideshow issues, I am singularly interested in the race itself, and how people handicap the race. Like I said I give Beyer credit for having the winner, but with all the column inches he devoted to Zenyatta you would think he could say more than just "the odds are against her."

I like Blame a lot, and considered him to be the real threat to Zenyatta. The way I look at it is that it took Blame's best effort to date in order to hold her off.

FenceBored
11-08-2010, 11:45 AM
What's that line from the Hitler video? "Mein Fuhrer, perhaps Andy Beyer will be reasonable." Yep, he was; gracious even.

Ya know, I've not seen the pages of putdowns that some Zenyatta fans insisted were coming with her first loss. What I am seeing though are Zenyatta fans getting all up in peoples faces with some kind of false bravado. Curious, huh?

delayjf
11-08-2010, 12:04 PM
Looking at the rerun, and eyeballing the field as they pass under the wire for the first time - it appears to me that about ten lengths covers the field from the leader to the last horse on the screen with Zenyatta not even in the picture at this point. When you do pick her up as the field reaches the 15/16 pole, she looks like she is another 8-10 lengths behind the pack. So I'm inclined to agree with Daviodwitz's figure of about 20 lengths. Maybe the blimp had a better shot.

If that is in fact the case, then Chickenheads pace senario is more accute than originally estimated.

bigmack
11-08-2010, 12:20 PM
with all the column inches he devoted to Zenyatta you would think he could say more than just "the odds are against her."
He said plenty, and 98% of it was questioning her ability against national talent on dirt.

I guarantee 'the odds are against her' was the most diplomatic way for him to express his doubts of her chances in the Classic and that amongst his peers it went something more like "not a chance."

delayjf
11-08-2010, 12:20 PM
Reading Beyers article:

I think Beyer does understate Zenyatta's trip a bit. Mike Smith claimed he had to put on the brakes entering the turn, but I did not see anything that dramatic. And while I tend to agree she did not lose momentum by breaking stride and being pulled up, she did have to wait to get clear before hitting her full stride.

Two other things I noticed on the rerun:

Zenyatta was not extended at the wire.
And she did appear to me to get her nose in front about two stride past the finish line.

Grits
11-08-2010, 12:27 PM
He said plenty, and 98% of it was questioning her ability against national talent on dirt.

I guarantee 'the odds are against her' was the most diplomatic way for him to express his doubts of her chances in the Classic and that amongst his peers it went something more like "not a chance."

Nah, Mack, among his peers, shorter, more direct . . . . . "no shot."

Woulda been worse to the reading public though, huh?:lol:

bigmack
11-08-2010, 12:37 PM
Nah, Mack, among his peers, shorter, more direct . . . . . "no shot."
More like "you know, ah, no shot, ah, you know."

eastie
11-08-2010, 12:37 PM
Have you manned up about your ridiculous Get Stormy baloney you were posting not too long ago?

And Dahoss isn't posting because I pissed him off with my antics. So much for our supposed "clique" right eastie?

Oh, and she did LOSE eastie...not sure what you think TLG and Dahoss need to "man up" about...Just like you guys were telling us it didn't matter how much Z won by, or how fast she ran...all that mattered was that she won.

You can't have it both ways now that she LOST.


i honestly still can't believe that Get stormy didn't swallow Sidney's Candy on the turn....I believe CJ already made sure it wasn't forgotten.
If you don't think you were wrong about Zenyatta, I don't know what to say. I don't know about other guys, but what i said was that the hosses she beat, all ran very well. Most, the best they ever ran. The only mention of time, by me, was how fast she came home....like sub 30 5/16's or sub 6 last 1/16's. I never said that she should have been HOY this year or last. I said if you want to be the champ, you have to beat the champ. Blame was awesome. He got the jump on her and held her off late after Gomez got him out so he could see her coming. Great ride great hoss. But that's what it took to beat Zenyatta. There is no doubt in my mind that she would take RA any day at any distance on anything. If I owned Zenyatta, I would have come east with her. Certainly she deserved to run at Saratoga. The puzzling thing to me was that they "had horse" and didn't come. It's one thing if you don't know what you really have, but C'mon, everything about her says Superstar.....Think back to how far back she was in the Classic.
She's awesome.....you guys were all wrong and you know it. Apologize to Zenyatta, you owe her one.

gm10
11-08-2010, 12:54 PM
Reading Beyers article:

I think Beyer does understate Zenyatta's trip a bit. Mike Smith claimed he had to put on the brakes entering the turn, but I did not see anything that dramatic. And while I tend to agree she did not lose momentum by breaking stride and being pulled up, she did have to wait to get clear before hitting her full stride.

Two other things I noticed on the rerun:

Zenyatta was not extended at the wire.
And she did appear to me to get her nose in front about two stride past the finish line.

He did have to hit the brakes in the turn. There is a clip on youtube where you can clearly see it.

Market Mover
11-08-2010, 01:02 PM
He did have to hit the brakes in the turn. There is a clip on youtube where you can clearly see it.



can u post said clip of zenyatta steadying just beore she starts taking off again...

gm10
11-08-2010, 01:06 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTl2fdMXfv8

around 1'35''

bigmack
11-08-2010, 01:19 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTl2fdMXfv8

around 1'35''
I'd find another clip. Ain't no brakes in that one.

gm10
11-08-2010, 01:33 PM
I'd find another clip. Ain't no brakes in that one.

there are here

RXB
11-08-2010, 01:39 PM
Her trip was okay; I didn't see any major trouble at all. Blame's trip was a little better but on average you would expect a midpack runner to encounter less trouble than a deep closer. Part of the game.

It was an exciting race. She lost by a head; no excuses.

cpitt84
11-08-2010, 02:18 PM
Zenyatta was not extended at the wire.
.

I saw this too! If you look at her BCC 09, you see that full extension.THAT is what has helped her win. Since she is twice the size of Blame, if fully extended, she wins.

So close!

JustRalph
11-08-2010, 05:06 PM
Jockeys are dumber than I thought.

Still, it was obvious SHE would have to run faster. I said so many times.

The pace really surprised me. I thought they would really go slow...on purpose. I thought this played into QR and Haynesfield or First Dude. All in an attempt to foil Z. Nope.......they went :bang:

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2010, 09:14 PM
She's awesome.....you guys were all wrong and you know it. Apologize to Zenyatta, you owe her one.Apologize for what? Saying she wouldn't win against Grade 1 males on dirt? Why should I apologize for that? I was correct.

I don't need to apologize for anything. I've routinely called her the greatest synthetic runner the world has ever seen. Now we know she is also one of the better dirt mares to come along in a while.

But I think it's ridiculous of people to still be labeling her the best female runner EVER (which is what Randy Moss did at the end of the BC telecast). That's just flat out wrong IMO.

RXB
11-08-2010, 09:29 PM
But I think it's ridiculous of people to still be labeling her the best female runner EVER (which is what Randy Moss did at the end of the BC telecast). That's just flat out wrong IMO.

See, now this is a sensible statement.

cj
11-08-2010, 09:36 PM
Lets not forget, what made her competitive against males where other females had failed was her lack of early speed. If she were just as talented, but ran like an Azeri or Inside Information, she would have been toast. That isn't a knock, I'm just saying it is a big part of the reason she ran as well as she did in this particular race.

Bullet Plane
11-08-2010, 09:39 PM
You could have run this race ten times, and got ten different winners. If QR took more time getting into position, if the Japanese horse didn't crowd the rail coming from the ten hole, lots of ifs, lots of ifs,....like every horse race.

bks
11-08-2010, 10:48 PM
Lets not forget, what made her competitive against males where other females had failed was her lack of early speed. If she were just as talented, but ran like an Azeri or Inside Information, she would have been toast. That isn't a knock, I'm just saying it is a big part of the reason she ran as well as she did in this particular race.

Her style comes as close as any can to ensuring a repeatable performance. She is always going to run a decent race in a full field at a Classic distance, because there's no trouble to be had 15 lengths off the pace, and because less classy horses are always going to back out of a race at that distance. That's why this Classic would NOT have produced 10 different winners from 10 races, because Zenyatta is always going to run about a +105 BSF at 1 1/4 miles (more often than not, +110). That eliminates 8 or 9 of the 11 horses before the gates even open.

Just as a dearth of tactical speed is a mark against her, being able to conjure up a big final quarter on demand is a big mark in her favor.

PaceAdvantage
11-08-2010, 11:44 PM
Just as a dearth of tactical speed is a mark against her, being able to conjure up a big final quarter on demand is a big mark in her favor.But the two must go hand in hand. You can't have one without the other, or else you'd have a super freaky freak...of which Zenyatta is not, despite claims to the contrary.

eastie
11-09-2010, 02:07 AM
Apologize for what? Saying she wouldn't win against Grade 1 males on dirt? Why should I apologize for that? I was correct.

I don't need to apologize for anything. I've routinely called her the greatest synthetic runner the world has ever seen. Now we know she is also one of the better dirt mares to come along in a while.

But I think it's ridiculous of people to still be labeling her the best female runner EVER (which is what Randy Moss did at the end of the BC telecast). That's just flat out wrong IMO.



you said she had not shot, would be off the board, and had no chance. better watch the race again. She was everything we said she was, closed from Chiner and got beat a zop against the best males on dirt at 10 furlongs....and you guys say I have no clue...:rolleyes:

FenceBored
11-09-2010, 10:35 AM
you said she had not shot, would be off the board, and had no chance. better watch the race again. She was everything we said she was, closed from Chiner and got beat a zop against the best males on dirt at 10 furlongs....and you guys say I have no clue...:rolleyes:

I believe you said she'd win in a time of 1:58 flat. Now, stop me if I'm wrong but the difference between 1:58 and 2:02.28 would appear to be greater than the difference between a head and 3.75 lengths (which is all it would have taken to put her off the board). Which prediction was less accurate? :confused:

keithw84
11-09-2010, 10:59 AM
But the two must go hand in hand. You can't have one without the other, or else you'd have a super freaky freak...of which Zenyatta is not, despite claims to the contrary.

When I read this, I immediately thought of Super Freaky, one of the "tomato cans" Zenyatta beat early in her career.

eastie
11-09-2010, 12:54 PM
I believe you said she'd win in a time of 1:58 flat. Now, stop me if I'm wrong but the difference between 1:58 and 2:02.28 would appear to be greater than the difference between a head and 3.75 lengths (which is all it would have taken to put her off the board). Which prediction was less accurate? :confused:


I handicapped the grounds crew wrong. They usually soup the rail up, but the slowed down track instead, and made an outside closer's bias to help Zenyatta's chances.....as far as the predictions go, the jist of it is...all the naysayers were wrong. She is the goods.

cj
11-09-2010, 01:08 PM
I handicapped the grounds crew wrong. They usually soup the rail up, but the slowed down track instead, and made an outside closer's bias to help Zenyatta's chances.....as far as the predictions go, the jist of it is...all the naysayers were wrong. She is the goods.

If getting the perfect distance, pace, and no trouble and coming up a head short is the goods, she is the goods.

RXB
11-09-2010, 01:23 PM
I'd say it was a very fine performance for any filly/mare, and especially for a November 6YO.

Cardus
11-09-2010, 01:25 PM
i honestly still can't believe that Get stormy didn't swallow Sidney's Candy on the turn....I believe CJ already made sure it wasn't forgotten.
If you don't think you were wrong about Zenyatta, I don't know what to say. I don't know about other guys, but what i said was that the hosses she beat, all ran very well. Most, the best they ever ran. The only mention of time, by me, was how fast she came home....like sub 30 5/16's or sub 6 last 1/16's. I never said that she should have been HOY this year or last. I said if you want to be the champ, you have to beat the champ. Blame was awesome. He got the jump on her and held her off late after Gomez got him out so he could see her coming. Great ride great hoss. But that's what it took to beat Zenyatta. There is no doubt in my mind that she would take RA any day at any distance on anything. If I owned Zenyatta, I would have come east with her. Certainly she deserved to run at Saratoga. The puzzling thing to me was that they "had horse" and didn't come. It's one thing if you don't know what you really have, but C'mon, everything about her says Superstar.....Think back to how far back she was in the Classic.
She's awesome.....you guys were all wrong and you know it. Apologize to Zenyatta, you owe her one.

If she comes east, I'll think about it.

Valuist
11-09-2010, 01:26 PM
It was a great effort by Zenyatta. But IMO, still not as impressive as Personal Ensign running down Winning Colors in the final strides in 1988 over the Churchill surface.

Cardus
11-09-2010, 01:28 PM
It was a great effort by Zenyatta. But IMO, still not as impressive as Personal Ensign running down Winning Colors in the final strides in 1988 over the Churchill surface.

It's good to see a racing memory that goes back beyond Smarty Jones.

Grits
11-09-2010, 01:43 PM
I believe you said she'd win in a time of 1:58 flat. Now, stop me if I'm wrong but the difference between 1:58 and 2:02.28 would appear to be greater than the difference between a head and 3.75 lengths (which is all it would have taken to put her off the board). Which prediction was less accurate? :confused:

I can't find the post, but Eastie, I believe, your words were also, and the ONLY words of this, in all of cyberland . . . . . .

Zenyatta will break the track record for 1 1/4.

Like I said, I can't put my eye on it right now, and I apologize in advance if I'm wrong, but I swear I think that was your final word.

Robert Fischer
11-09-2010, 01:52 PM
"She's as good as Blame, and few people would rank Blame among the immortals of the turf. His victory Saturday doesn't rank among the best Breeders' Cup performances. (The Beyer Speed Figure of 111 earned by both the winner and Zenyatta was below average for the Classic and considerably slower than great winners like Sunday Silence and Ghostzapper.)"

There is a lack of continuity in the logic of the above quote from the article.

Not4Love
11-09-2010, 02:21 PM
Horses commonly break a little slow when running on the poly. They do not get there "footing" like they do on a dirt surface. This would help to explain most of the injuries that are found on the back-end. If this theory is true, it would simply explain the reason for her getting out of the gate a step slow. It is deceiving because the other horses are coming off a dirt surface in their previous start. I will always believe that the POLY-CRAP got her beat. If her previous race was on dirt, she would have got there. No Doubt!!!

cpitt84
11-09-2010, 03:06 PM
Horses commonly break a little slow when running on the poly. They do not get there "footing" like they do on a dirt surface. This would help to explain most of the injuries that are found on the back-end. If this theory is true, it would simply explain the reason for her getting out of the gate a step slow. It is deceiving because the other horses are coming off a dirt surface in their previous start. I will always believe that the POLY-CRAP got her beat. If her previous race was on dirt, she would have got there. No Doubt!!!

I feel the same way that you do. She needed more experience on dirt. Blame is very comfortable on it and churchill is his favorite place to run.

FenceBored
11-09-2010, 03:55 PM
I handicapped the grounds crew wrong. They usually soup the rail up, but the slowed down track instead, and made an outside closer's bias to help Zenyatta's chances.....as far as the predictions go, the jist of it is...all the naysayers were wrong. She is the goods.

You "handicapped the grounds crew wrong?" :confused:

No Classic at Churchill (6 of them before Saturday) has broken 2:00.75, only one faster than 2:02. You thought that Zenyatta was going to bust that wide open by nearly 3 sec. shattering Secretariat's track record by nearly 2 secs, and now you think the only problem with your prediction was you "handicapped the grounds crew wrong." Incredible.

As to your last bit. She ran as I thought she'd run. She performed how I thought she'd perform. The whole race reconfirmed my impression of her. She ain't proved she's as good as her pharonic followers believe.

On the other hand, I was pleased to see Blame step it up and finish stronger than I feared he might.

Bullet Plane
11-09-2010, 06:46 PM
Though there are still some diehards in both camps, I think the truth about her is somewhere in between. Not quite as bad as the critics thought, not quite as good as her supporters thought. Somewhere in the middle.

She ran better than I thought she would, i.e. she ran a close second to Blame. But not as good as her backers thought she would, i.e. she did not win by open lengths.

ArlJim78
11-09-2010, 08:10 PM
Though there are still some diehards in both camps, I think the truth about her is somewhere in between. Not quite as bad as the critics thought, not quite as good as her supporters thought. Somewhere in the middle.

She ran better than I thought she would, i.e. she ran a close second to Blame. But not as good as her backers thought she would, i.e. she did not win by open lengths.
who was predicting an open length win?

PaceAdvantage
11-10-2010, 04:11 AM
you said she had not shot, would be off the board, and had no chance. better watch the race again. She was everything we said she was, closed from Chiner and got beat a zop against the best males on dirt at 10 furlongs....and you guys say I have no clue...:rolleyes:I never said a word about whether you have a clue or not. Don't lump me in with everyone else for your convenience.

And I most certainly said in my home page analysis " Can she win? Of course she can." Those were my exact words.

So stop being a mook.