View Full Version : Zenyatta or War Emblem ?
JustRalph
11-06-2010, 09:08 PM
Who ran the better race............?????
2002 Kentucky Derby
23.25, :47.04, 1:11.75, 1:36.70, 2:01.13.
2010 Breeders Cup Classic
23.24 47.14 1:11.01 1:37.12 2:02.28
Just for Fun...........you make the call..........
Make sure ........you explain yourself.........
Even though I'm biased because I really liked War Emblem, I have to go with...hmmm...War Emblem.
CincyHorseplayer
11-06-2010, 09:46 PM
I can't choose between the two because I thought both were astounding runs.
But this underlines the rift in opinions that permeate not only this board but the whole of racing fans.If you run straight to the front,are fast,take away all the obstacles in your way,lose no ground,and surge to the wire,to some you are just a piece of crap on a predictable,cookie cutter,run of the mill,speed favoring track that is boring.Even though that attribute is the number one virtue in any creature that runs.
Yet when you do nothing,wait for a field to destroy itself,and make this "OOOO,AAAAAA" move,you capture the attention of the feeble minded.
It never ceases to amaze me how much speed is disdained when it is the #1 virtue of competing in this manner.
delayjf
11-06-2010, 09:53 PM
As I recall, War Emblem ran a 112 beyer in the Derby, using CJ recently posted Beyer of 114, I'll go with Z.
delayjf
11-06-2010, 10:01 PM
Yet when you do nothing,wait for a field to destroy itself,and make this "OOOO,AAAAAA" move,you capture the attention of the feeble minded.
I can admire speed horses, but I think as a whole come from behind runners are just more exciting to watch for most people.
CincyHorseplayer
11-06-2010, 10:09 PM
I can admire speed horses, but I think as a whole come from behind runners are just more exciting to watch for most people.
Not me.I take total pride in being able to predict horses wiring a field,because I know that only a bad break is the only trouble they will run into.A fast,headstrong,front running powerhouse is the best bet in racing IMO.The fear of them not having enough left in the stretch is what gives them their prices.I bet neither running style to win at paltry odds though.
JustRalph
11-06-2010, 10:19 PM
121 views so far and just a handful of votes ............
Got some of you shaking your heads huh? Thinking hard ?
121 views so far and just a handful of votes ............
Got some of you shaking your heads huh? Thinking hard ?
I've done enough thinking these last two days. And much of it ill-conceived.
As I recall, War Emblem ran a 112 beyer in the Derby, using CJ recently posted Beyer of 114, I'll go with Z.
No, no, no...that is the raw figure, unadjusted for track speed. It will almost certainly be lower, unless you think Uncle Mo ran a 110 as a 2yo.
chickenhead
11-06-2010, 10:51 PM
People are over-rating her performance because it was on dirt, it wasn't really a great performance by her or for her. The only really remarkable thing about it is that she almost won the BCC with it.
People are over-rating her performance because it was on dirt, it wasn't really a great performance by her or for her. The only really remarkable thing about it is that she almost won the BCC with it.
You better duck now! Very accurate though.
PaceAdvantage
11-06-2010, 11:02 PM
People are over-rating her performance because it was on dirt, it wasn't really a great performance by her or for her.I disagree. This was a remarkable performance FOR HER. She ran her typical race, only this time, against far superior company to what she is used to, and she almost pulled it off...again...
I don't see how you can look at what she has been racing against (and almost losing to) all year long, then look at today's field that she almost defeated and say this wasn't a great performance FOR HER.
I disagree. This was a remarkable performance FOR HER. She ran her typical race, only this time, against far superior company to what she is used to, and she almost pulled it off...again...
I don't see how you can look at what she has been racing against (and almost losing to) all year long, then look at today's field that she almost defeated and say this wasn't a great performance FOR HER.
Ready? Because this race was at 1 1/4 miles, which rendered all but about 2 of her competitors completely incapable of beating her given the likely race circumstances. The first four completely beat themselves, as they figured to, and other than Fly Down and Blame, who else was going to be finishing with her at a classic distance?
Beating St. trinian's with first run at 1 1/8 miles on synthetic, and beating Switch with first run at 1/16 miles on synthetic were pretty much equally difficult situations as having to run down Blame (maybe a hair less, maybe). Those horses had plenty of finish in them, and she had to be on her toes to go by.
As chickenhead said, she wasn't at her absolute best today. If this stretch drive unfolds 10 times, I'd say more than half the time she goes by. Today, she didn't and that's not to take anything away from Blame. Big heart from him.
PaceAdvantage
11-06-2010, 11:43 PM
This whole "1 1/4 distance" card has really been overplayed in my opinion. Just have to get that off my chest.Beating St. trinian's with first run at 1 1/8 miles on synthetic, and beating Switch with first run at 1/16 miles on synthetic were pretty much equally difficult situations as having to run down Blame (maybe a hair less, maybe). Those horses had plenty of finish in them, and she had to be on her toes to go by.I totally disagree with this entire concept presented above. Once again, you are overplaying the distance card. If this stretch drive unfolds 10 times, I'd say more than half the time she goes by. Today, she didn't and that's not to take anything away from Blame.Why? What can change significantly during those 10 runnings that makes you believe she will win more than half of them? She got a decent enough trip...the pace was quick enough to knock out all of the early horses...what else is going to change to give her a better than 50/50 shot of winning?
Alacrity
11-06-2010, 11:54 PM
Zenyatta. Especially considering she didn't figure out the track until about half way through the race.
JustRalph
11-07-2010, 12:34 AM
Zenyatta. Especially considering she didn't figure out the track until about half way through the race.
That's ridiculous reasoning
Valuist
11-07-2010, 01:21 AM
If Zenyatta was laying closer to the fast pace, she would've had less energy to finish. The pace was quite fast, and the race was loaded with speed. No excuse to Z.
People are over-rating her performance because it was on dirt, it wasn't really a great performance by her or for her. The only really remarkable thing about it is that she almost won the BCC with it.
That is all that counts. You win or you lose.
Time doesn' t mean a thing, unless you're in jail. Or married.
MNslappy
11-07-2010, 01:55 AM
Tom you forgot the Twain "but I repeat myself" at the end
Alacrity
11-07-2010, 03:53 AM
That's ridiculous reasoning
no lie to me like this!
thaskalos
11-07-2010, 03:58 AM
I can't choose between the two because I thought both were astounding runs.
But this underlines the rift in opinions that permeate not only this board but the whole of racing fans.If you run straight to the front,are fast,take away all the obstacles in your way,lose no ground,and surge to the wire,to some you are just a piece of crap on a predictable,cookie cutter,run of the mill,speed favoring track that is boring.Even though that attribute is the number one virtue in any creature that runs.
Yet when you do nothing,wait for a field to destroy itself,and make this "OOOO,AAAAAA" move,you capture the attention of the feeble minded.
It never ceases to amaze me how much speed is disdained when it is the #1 virtue of competing in this manner.I don't think that early speed is "disdained", unless it's in a sprint, and the speed horse finds a paceless field and cruises to a victory. In the other cases, and especially at the longer distances, players know that the speed horse seldom has it so easy. In fact, the vast majority of the seasoned players avoid the extreme closers because they seldom win.
The unsophisticated players are the ones who are fascinated by the stretch runners...because they always give the impression that they would have won if only their jockey could have made an earlier move...which is, as we all know, only an optical illusion.
This is what made Zenyatta so uncommon, IMO. Here was an extreme stretch runner who was winning every one of her races. Even when you greatly outclass all the fields you meet, that's quite an accomplishment.
CincyHorseplayer
11-07-2010, 11:37 PM
]I don't think that early speed is "disdained", unless it's in a sprint, and the speed horse finds a paceless field and cruises to a victory.[/color] In the other cases, and especially at the longer distances, players know that the speed horse seldom has it so easy. In fact, the vast majority of the seasoned players avoid the extreme closers because they seldom win.
The unsophisticated players are the ones who are fascinated by the stretch runners...because they always give the impression that they would have won if only their jockey could have made an earlier move...which is, as we all know, only an optical illusion.
This is what made Zenyatta so uncommon, IMO. Here was an extreme stretch runner who was winning every one of her races. Even when you greatly outclass all the fields you meet, that's quite an accomplishment.
You just eliminated a ton of winners.Most races are sprints.And when there is a sole frontrunner you want to call it out??My my.I'd rather just win.
JustRalph
11-07-2010, 11:58 PM
I really thought this would generate some comments. I see that not many want to discuss this topic.
I guess everybody automatically assumes that Z is a better horse huh?
I don't.......... and I was sure we would get some early versus late speed comments in this thread. I think this comparison is very very interesting. Those who did comment, thanks. Your discussion was right up the alley for what I was thinking.
War Emblem cut basically the same fractions and finished with a better overall time. He did all the up front work himself. I thought this would be illustrative to many.......... I thought it might provide some context. I know, he wasn't a mare, he was a 3 yr old colt etc.
I thought it might be an interesting discussion. But apparently everybody has made up their mind on Zenyatta....... ........not I said the little red hen
CBedo
11-08-2010, 12:33 AM
I vote for the "don't care" category.
War Emblem cut basically the same fractions and finished with a better overall time. He did all the up front work himself.
Actually, 7/10ths slower to the 6f call than yesterday's leader, on a day when the track was playing faster than it did yesterday. War Emblem was a good colt but they silver plattered that race for him.
Here are my Derby fractional pars, adjusted for how I gauged track speed that day (a little fast), followed by War Emblem's times.
46.32 1:10.87 1:36.05 2:01.72
47.04 1:11.75 1:36.70 2:01.13
War Emblem, by my measures, outran the speed figure par by about 3/5ths but had it rather easy on the front compared to most Derby frontrunners. He took advantage of the easier, uncontested pace and flew home in the stretch. Proud Citizen was 2nd all the way around the track and Perfect Drift was 3rd for almost the entire race.
BTW, I didn't vote because I can't really say who ran the better race without context.
If you put Zenyatta of 11/06/10 into the Ky Derby, with the other horses all running at their same styles and ability/form levels, she doesn't catch War Emblem.
If you put War Emblem of 05/04/02 into yesterday's Classic, with the other horses all running at their same styles and ability/form levels, he gets mowed down in the stretch for sure by Blame and Zenyatta, and very probably by Fly Down and Lookin At Lucky, too.
One other observation: the Ky Derby 2002 played to the frontrunners obviously, but if you look at the top four finishers, they were the four classiest of those 18, anyway. With maybe a nod to Came Home, too.
Yesterday, the pace was more favourable to the later runners but Blame and Zenyatta were the two best horses, anyway. (Quality Road at that level up to 9f; obviously was not himself yesterday but wouldn't have defeated those two at 10f, regardless.)
JustRalph
11-08-2010, 02:34 AM
that's exactly the kind of discussion I was talking about........
Thanks RXB
CincyHorseplayer
11-08-2010, 04:22 PM
Actually, 7/10ths slower to the 6f call than yesterday's leader, on a day when the track was playing faster than it did yesterday. War Emblem was a good colt but they silver plattered that race for him.
Here are my Derby fractional pars, adjusted for how I gauged track speed that day (a little fast), followed by War Emblem's times.
46.32 1:10.87 1:36.05 2:01.72
47.04 1:11.75 1:36.70 2:01.13
War Emblem, by my measures, outran the speed figure par by about 3/5ths but had it rather easy on the front compared to most Derby frontrunners. He took advantage of the easier, uncontested pace and flew home in the stretch. Proud Citizen was 2nd all the way around the track and Perfect Drift was 3rd for almost the entire race.
How can any mile and quarter race be silver plattered for a 3yo in May?War Emblem ran his tail off to make that race happen,he wasn't conceded anything.
thaskalos
11-08-2010, 04:43 PM
You just eliminated a ton of winners.Most races are sprints.And when there is a sole frontrunner you want to call it out??My my.I'd rather just win.You misunderstood what I said. It was YOU who stated that most horseplayers thought that front running winners were "crap".
All I said was, that the only front runners most horseplayers downgrade are the ones that cruise to victories by running leasurely fractions. The other front running winners - who run solid fractions - are not only widely respected...but heavily bet as well.
How can any mile and quarter race be silver plattered for a 3yo in May?War Emblem ran his tail off to make that race happen,he wasn't conceded anything.
As I said, he was a good colt-- he also won the Preakness and Haskell-- but he had a clear lead pretty much the whole way in the Ky Derby while setting modest fractions. That is an unusual situation in the Derby and makes things a lot easier for the frontrunner.
Steve R
11-08-2010, 05:01 PM
You misunderstood what I said. It was YOU who stated that most horseplayers thought that front running winners were "crap".
All I said was, that the only front runners most horseplayers downgrade are the ones that cruise to victories by running leasurely fractions. The other front running winners - who run solid fractions - are not only widely respected...but heavily bet as well.
I'll take the solid fraction front running winners any day of the week over early-plodding one-run types. The Seattle Slews, Ruffians, Lady's Secrets and Spend a Bucks of the world are a joy to behold. Even many great, established come-from-behinders like Forego and Shuvee had the versatility to win while attending a quick pace from time to time. Speed is the name of the game because people have been breeding for it for hundreds of years. Those that express it successfully from start to finish at the highest levels of competition are the true elites.
JustRalph
11-08-2010, 10:32 PM
As I said, he was a good colt-- he also won the Preakness and Haskell-- but he had a clear lead pretty much the whole way in the Ky Derby while setting modest fractions. That is an unusual situation in the Derby and makes things a lot easier for the frontrunner.
The fractions in the BCC classic were almost exactly the same? How can they be hot three days ago, and modest 8 years ago?
Ralph, the pace was 74/100ths of a second faster to the 6f mark in the Classic than it was in War Emblem's Derby, even though the track was a little slower on Saturday than for the '02 Derby. Adjusted for track speed, the difference would be nearly a full second. That's a fairly significant difference.
delayjf
11-08-2010, 11:48 PM
I'll take the solid fraction front running winners any day of the week over early-plodding one-run types. The Seattle Slews, Ruffians, Lady's Secrets and Spend a Bucks of the world are a joy to behold
That may be, but from my perspective, I can't help but like a closer like Easy Goer or Alysheba. I feel the same way about wire to wire winners that Bull Durham feels about strike outs - there're facist and boring. I love come from behind victories, and walk off grand slams and horses that rally from way down south to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
JustRalph
11-09-2010, 12:52 AM
Ralph, the pace was 74/100ths of a second faster to the 6f mark in the Classic than it was in War Emblem's Derby, even though the track was a little slower on Saturday than for the '02 Derby. Adjusted for track speed, the difference would be nearly a full second. That's a fairly significant difference.
I trust your math and agree. It makes for some good analysis though :ThmbUp:
CincyHorseplayer
11-09-2010, 03:56 AM
I'll take the solid fraction front running winners any day of the week over early-plodding one-run types. The Seattle Slews, Ruffians, Lady's Secrets and Spend a Bucks of the world are a joy to behold. Even many great, established come-from-behinders like Forego and Shuvee had the versatility to win while attending a quick pace from time to time. Speed is the name of the game because people have been breeding for it for hundreds of years. Those that express it successfully from start to finish at the highest levels of competition are the true elites.
Amen.
tucker6
11-09-2010, 04:29 AM
That may be, but from my perspective, I can't help but like a closer like Easy Goer or Alysheba. I feel the same way about wire to wire winners that Bull Durham feels about strike outs - there're facist and boring. I love come from behind victories, and walk off grand slams and horses that rally from way down south to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
What is boring is the high number of graded races where the horses plod out of the gate and plod down the stretch with no style or purpose. Now that is boring. I'll take races with the winning horse being a front runner, an off the lead, or a deep closer as long as they show me something going around the track.
newtothegame
11-09-2010, 05:38 AM
Not me.I take total pride in being able to predict horses wiring a field,because I know that only a bad break is the only trouble they will run into.A fast,headstrong,front running powerhouse is the best bet in racing IMO.The fear of them not having enough left in the stretch is what gives them their prices.I bet neither running style to win at paltry odds though.
Funny, a friend and I were just having this very same discussion not but a few hours ago. He, is like another poster who simply adores those late running come from behind runners where he sees alot of fun in it.
I personally, like the front runners full of GO. There is very few variables to worry about in my opinion with front runners. If they get out of the gate...thats half the battle.
I believe with late runners such as Z, they need alot of things to go their way. Pace for one! Next, timing of the jockey to let them run. (I truly am surprised Z made it this far without a loss). Late runners seem to always be on or at the wire by a head, nose, half. Rarely from what I have seen, do you see open lengths at the wire. Traffic.....they usually find themselves losing ground having to go wide around the pack or get caught in traffic trying to save ground. Horses reaction to having mud or dirt in face....
Just too many variables.....
Give me the speed balls from jump!
CincyHorseplayer
11-09-2010, 06:48 AM
You misunderstood what I said. It was YOU who stated that most horseplayers thought that front running winners were "crap".
All I said was, that the only front runners most horseplayers downgrade are the ones that cruise to victories by running leasurely fractions. The other front running winners - who run solid fractions - are not only widely respected...but heavily bet as well.
I know.I reread your comment and realized you weren't being disparaging.But it did remind me of something that happened this year at the track.Bumped into an old guy who was impressed by me having binoculars watching the races.We got to talking and he said he doesn't bet anything less than a mile.He thought it is the scourge of racing.He was such good company I barely disputed it!You never condemned sprints in your post though.My bad.
CincyHorseplayer
11-09-2010, 06:58 AM
Funny, a friend and I were just having this very same discussion not but a few hours ago. He, is like another poster who simply adores those late running come from behind runners where he sees alot of fun in it.
I personally, like the front runners full of GO. There is very few variables to worry about in my opinion with front runners. If they get out of the gate...thats half the battle.
I believe with late runners such as Z, they need alot of things to go their way. Pace for one! Next, timing of the jockey to let them run. (I truly am surprised Z made it this far without a loss). Late runners seem to always be on or at the wire by a head, nose, half. Rarely from what I have seen, do you see open lengths at the wire. Traffic.....they usually find themselves losing ground having to go wide around the pack or get caught in traffic trying to save ground. Horses reaction to having mud or dirt in face....
Just too many variables.....
Give me the speed balls from jump!
Yes!There is nothing more glorious than a good horse just taking control of a race and leaving everybody else to second guess.We all know races are won in a lot of different ways but the best bet in racing is that bada$s that goes to the front,uninhibited,never looks back,and leaves them scratching heads!Best bet in racing.I have been through that phase in my horseplaying existence of betting closers thinking it was a security blanket.Wrong!!!!I fear closers getting there way more than a frontrunner dying!!
Blind Pursuit
11-09-2010, 07:15 AM
BTW, I didn't vote because I can't really say who ran the better race without context.
If you put Zenyatta of 11/06/10 into the Ky Derby, with the other horses all running at their same styles and ability/form levels, she doesn't catch War Emblem.
If you put War Emblem of 05/04/02 into yesterday's Classic, with the other horses all running at their same styles and ability/form levels, he gets mowed down in the stretch for sure by Blame and Zenyatta, and very probably by Fly Down and Lookin At Lucky, too.
This has to rank as one of the top 10 comments I have ever read. I don't think I've ever seen a clearer encapsulation of "pace makes the race" than right there.
This has to rank as one of the top 10 comments I have ever read. I don't think I've ever seen a clearer encapsulation of "pace makes the race" than right there.
Very true. It is also true that if the race were on synthetics, they could go 52 to the half and Z would still beat him. Pace does not make the race routing on that stuff.
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