How do they find these analysts?

[ArlJim78]

So I tune in to HRTV's Breeders cup wrap-up show because the teaser said that they would have their top analysts on hand, and the very first statement from the estimable Scott Hazelton is "Well Blame has pulled off one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history."

Seriously Scott? the biggest upset in history paid $12.40 to win?

[tzipi]

So I tune in to HRTV's Breeders cup wrap-up show because the teaser said that they would have their top analysts on hand, and the very first statement from the estimable Scott Hazelton is "Well Blame has pulled off one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history."

Seriously Scott? the biggest upset in history paid $12.40 to win?

It's just so it makes them feel better about their money loss and their overconfidence. Biggest upset? Blame probably should've been the favorite. He paid $12 and that's only because Zen was a bit overbet. Has this guy even watched what this Blame has done? It's bad when these "analysts" get their emotions involved in reporting the race.

[jelly]

So I tune in to HRTV's Breeders cup wrap-up show because the teaser said that they would have their top analysts on hand, and the very first statement from the estimable Scott Hazelton is "Well Blame has pulled off one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history."

Seriously Scott? the biggest upset in history paid $12.40 to win?



Nooo he din't!

[toussaud]

It's just so it makes them feel better about their money loss and their overconfidence. Biggest upset? Blame probably should've been the favorite. He paid $12 and that's only because Zen was a bit overbet. Has this guy even watched what this Blame has done? It's bad when these "analysts" get their emotions involved in reporting the race.


scott didn't' even have Z

the only one that picked Z is Jeff Siegal

[ArlJim78]

scott didn't' even have Z

the only one that picked Z is Jeff Siegal
Didn't Siegal select Blame? I thought i heard him say that.

[toussaud]

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure he had Zenyatta. I know most everyone else had blame

[Grits]

Nooo he din't!

:lol: LOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL:lol:

OH, how I love the way you said this. Din't. Priceless!

[JustRalph]

Nepotism runs amok

[Bubbles]

I was at Saratoga Harness today for the BC, and we got the international feed TVG had put on. The entire build-up to the Classic was focused on Zenyatta. Fine, to be expected. She was 19-0.

Then, when the horses are going into the gate, one of the analysts (I don't have names) uttered this little gem.

"Even if you're not betting on Zenyatta, you have to be rooting for her."

Um. No. No, I don't. I'll feel obligated rooting home my $94 double and overlaid win-place wager on a 5-1 horse that shouldn't have been much more than 5-2, thanks very much. :bang:

[jelly]

Yea,it was kind of sad watching TVG lately. :ThmbDown:

[tzipi]

scott didn't' even have Z

the only one that picked Z is Jeff Siegal

Well then why say "biggest upset"??? Ridiculous. Did he even look at Blame's accomplishments or odds?

[Robert Goren]

How do they find these analysts?
They comb through the students flunking out of the University of Arizona school of race track management.

[jelly]

For the record Siegal disagreed with Hazelton saying he didn't think is was one of the biggest upsets in history.

[pandy]

The poorest analysis of the Breeders Cup Classic and other BC races were by amateurs on boards like this, let's be fair here. As for the classic, the only horses that could logically be picked to win where either Zenyatta, Blame, or Lookin At Lucky. Any other top pick was ridiculous. Even though it was a good field, it was not a wide open race by any means. Most pros eliminated Quality Road, who was pace, post and distance compromised. I picked the race, Zen, Blame, LAL, QR but my only bet was a two horse exacta box of Zenyatta and Blame. By the way, I posted my classic picks on my website so I'm not red boarding.

[ArlJim78]

For the record Siegal disagreed with Hazelton saying he didn't think is was one of the biggest upsets in history.
That's correct he did, but my comment didn't imply that Siegal had said anything dumb. Siegal is one of the good ones and I'm sure when he heard Hazelton say that he had to be thinking to himself "oh my god, he can't be serious about that".

[PaceAdvantage]

The poorest analysis of the Breeders Cup Classic and other BC races were by amateurs on boards like this, let's be fair here. As for the classic, the only horses that could logically be picked to win where either Zenyatta, Blame, or Lookin At Lucky. Any other top pick was ridiculous. Even though it was a good field, it was not a wide open race by any means. Most pros eliminated Quality Road, who was pace, post and distance compromised. I picked the race, Zen, Blame, LAL, QR but my only bet was a two horse exacta box of Zenyatta and Blame. By the way, I posted my classic picks on my website so I'm not red boarding.Pretty condescending of you in my opinion. I picked Quality Road on top. I guess I suck.

Oh wait, that's right, I posted Shared Account here on the board and Dangerous Midge in the Chat Room, all before the races went off, so I guess I'm not so bad after all.

[Bullet Plane]

The poorest analysis of the Breeders Cup Classic and other BC races were by amateurs on boards like this, let's be fair here. As for the classic, the only horses that could logically be picked to win where either Zenyatta, Blame, or Lookin At Lucky. Any other top pick was ridiculous. Even though it was a good field, it was not a wide open race by any means. Most pros eliminated Quality Road, who was pace, post and distance compromised. I picked the race, Zen, Blame, LAL, QR but my only bet was a two horse exacta box of Zenyatta and Blame. By the way, I posted my classic picks on my website so I'm not red boarding.

So, let me get this straight. You picked all the logical favorites that any knuckel head that stabs a form can get.

And you call people on this board "amateurs"? Let me guess...
You had Uncle Mo too! :lol:

OK, I want guys like you in the pools!

[pandy]

Hey, if you're going to post selections and analysis you have to be prepared to accept criticism. I've been a public handicapper since 1975 and like all public cappers I've had to take the criticism when I make a bad pick and bad analysis. And believe me, I have made some terrible picks in my time, that's part of the game. But you have to learn from your mistakes. I picked against Zenyatta last year, but when she blew by 9 GR1 winners like they were standing still, I learned my lesson.

When I read some of the analysis of the classic on this board I laughed out loud. I particularly got a kick out of the people who said that Zenyatta was the underlay of the century and how this was a great betting race because of all the overlays, even though there were only three legitimate contenders in the race. For some reason people thought that monsters like Blame and Zenyatta were going to be easy to beat.

The odds were exactly where they should have been, there were no overlays in the classic. As for pace advantage, your analysis of the classic was awful, you somehow expected one of the greatest horses of all time, who had never lost, to run out of the money.

[jballscalls]

Pretty condescending of you in my opinion. I picked Quality Road on top. I guess I suck.

Oh wait, that's right, I posted Shared Account here on the board and Dangerous Midge in the Chat Room, all before the races went off, so I guess I'm not so bad after all.

was going to be a smartass, nevermind. good picking!

[Bullet Plane]

Hey, if you're going to post selections and analysis you have to be prepared to accept criticism. I've been a public handicapper since 1975 and like all public cappers I've had to take the criticism when I make a bad pick and bad analysis. And believe me, I have made some terrible picks in my time, that's part of the game. But you have to learn from your mistakes. I picked against Zenyatta last year, but when she blew by 9 GR1 winners like they were standing still, I learned my lesson.

When I read some of the analysis of the classic on this board I laughed out loud. I particularly got a kick out of the people who said that Zenyatta was the underlay of the century and how this was a great betting race because of all the overlays, even though there were only three legitimate contenders in the race. For some reason people thought that monsters like Blame and Zenyatta were going to be easy to beat.

The odds were exactly where they should have been, there were no overlays in the classic. As for pace advantage, your analysis of the classic was awful, you somehow expected one of the greatest horses of all time, who had never lost, to run out of the money.
This statement is ridiculous. Picking against odds on favorites is what the game is all about. This is not a game about being "right." This is game about being contrarian. This is a game about getting odds and going against the crowd. Nobody picks a race right all the time. The so called greats get beat everyday. Smart handicappers know that- they bet accordingly.
I have read some of your work. You are pretty smart guy. You are letting "feelings" get in the way of smart handicapping. Sentiment has no place at the betting window.
Unless you are knucklehead, or a wet hanky type - "Z" was a big, fat bet against. Handicapping 101.

[pandy]

I disagree. You are saying that a horse that was 19 and 0 was a good horse to bet against. There are many false favorites and vulnerable favorites every week at racetracks all over the country, Zenyatta was not a bad or vulnerable favorite. Besides, again, the race was not that wide open. There were only two logical contenders besides Zenyatta and neither one of them were overlays. The other horses in the race were all underlays because they had no chance unless something weird happened, like a mishap of some sort. This is not my personal feelings, this is my professional opinion and I am right, that's why I hit the exacta and you didn't.

I'm not saying that you're never right, or that I'm never wrong. I'm just saying that in this particular race, many posters on this board were very wrong and in a totally illogical way. Perhaps you are the one who let your feelings get in the way because you felt that Z was over rated?

Being a contrarian, if it were only that simple. You have to know when to be an contrarian and when not to be. The stock market is going up now. Should you go short just because it's going up? What if it keeps going up?

[cj]

The poorest analysis of the Breeders Cup Classic and other BC races were by amateurs on boards like this, let's be fair here. As for the classic, the only horses that could logically be picked to win where either Zenyatta, Blame, or Lookin At Lucky. Any other top pick was ridiculous. Even though it was a good field, it was not a wide open race by any means. Most pros eliminated Quality Road, who was pace, post and distance compromised. I picked the race, Zen, Blame, LAL, QR but my only bet was a two horse exacta box of Zenyatta and Blame. By the way, I posted my classic picks on my website so I'm not red boarding.

I'd say you are wrong. I would have given Fly Down a better chance to win than LAL...I actually stated here he was a big underlay as he was just a bit too slow. He ran well, but Fly Down had real trouble and still beat him.

[Bullet Plane]

Cigar was 6 years old and lost the Classic. Z was 6, slower than she was last year, facing males on dirt for the first time. Anytime "first" comes into play you are bucking some powerful trends.
I didn't think she could do, what Cigar could not do.
Remember, she got a tremendous pace to run - and still did not win.

I would have thought the jocks would have slowed the pace down. I don't think they respected her enough to do that. Possibly, their animals just ran out of control. I don't really know.

She was not 19-0 against this type of competition-that is the whole point.

This was a favorite to attack. Nothing against her. And she did lose. The fact that we differ is no cause of concern, handicappers disagree all day long. If we were together on everything, there would be no betting pools.

Pace did a hell of a job. The man deserves Kudos, not Monday morning quarterbacking.

[pandy]

Was the pace really that fast? I don't do variants anymore so I'll have to wait to see what the variants are, but 1:11 doesn't seem that fast to me. The track couldn't have been that slow, they went 1:09.2 in the mile and in the sprint the first quarter was :21.1. To me it seemed like an average pace, not exceptionally fast. Blame and Zenyatta were in a class of their own, which they figured to be. Fly Down passed tired horses but Lookin At Lucky ran a big race. In my opinion, Blame is potentially a great horse. His win against Quality Road at the Spa was giant, and it's a shame that he will not get a chance to prove that he is a great horse. Hopefully they'll come back with LAL last year, he is really a terrific colt. I think you could make a case that he moved too soon in the Classic, but he battled gamely all the way, even after Blame put him away, LAL tried hard to hard to the wire. LAL has never failed to fire.

I don't buy the Z beat weak competition theory. She has now beaten 21 GR1 winners, 9 of which were multiple GR1 winners, and she has beaten 5 horses that are considered "champions" for having won year end honors.

[PaceAdvantage]

As for pace advantage, your analysis of the classic was awful, you somehow expected one of the greatest horses of all time, who had never lost, to run out of the money.Equally awful is your opinion of Zenyatta. One of the greatest horses of all time? Makes absolutely no sense. ONE OF THE GREATEST HORSES OF ALL TIME?????????? Yes, of course...how could I miss that...

One of the greatest horses of all time, and yet bloody likely to NEVER be voted Horse of the Year. Comedy I tells ya...

And if Zenyatta is one of the greatest horses of all time, what the hell does that make Blame? And please...don't compare Blame to Onion or Upset or I might just need a bathroom break.

[pandy]

If Zenyatta is the greatest mare of all time, as Beyer and others suggest she is, how can she not be one of the greatest horses of all time? As for Blame, who knows how good he is, he may be great, it's not our fault that they are retiring him after 13 starts. By the way Pace, not to get into a pissing contest, but many experts feel that Zenyatta is one of the greatest horses of all time, and she will definitely be regarded as that by racing historians, so I am not exactly going out on a limb here.

[PaceAdvantage]

If Zenyatta is the greatest mare of all time, as Beyer and others suggest she is.An equally awful opinion. And did Beyer actually state this? I know Randy Moss did. I had a good laugh.

[pandy]

I don't want to put words in Beyer's mouth, he said that if her fans feel that she is the greatest mare of all time, that's fair to say because of her overall record. My guess if pushed he would say Ruffian because he's a speed fig guy and Ruffian ran huge numbers. Ruffian is my favorite horse of all time but I'm pretty sure that Zenyatta could compete with her at 10 furlongs.

[PaceAdvantage]

Past females who would have either defeated Zenyatta on dirt, or come damn close:

Princess Rooney - would have crushed Zenyatta
Lady's Secret - probably would have beaten her
Personal Ensign - would have beaten her
Bayakoa - would have beaten her
Inside Information - would have crushed Zenyatta
Jewel Princess - probably would have beaten her
Azeri - would have given her a good run for her money

And that's just since 1984 and only limited to female winners of the BC Distaff/Ladies Classic

[pandy]

I agree they are all great mares, and maybe your are right, but certainly you are in the minority. Zenyatta has already secured her place in history as the greatest mare ever.

When Gomez was interviewed after the races Saturday, he said how proud he was to beat her and said, and this is a direct quote, "she's the best I've ever seen."

[thaskalos]

Past females who would have either defeated Zenyatta on dirt, or come damn close:

Princess Rooney - would have crushed Zenyatta
Lady's Secret - probably would have beaten her
Personal Ensign - would have beaten her
Bayakoa - would have beaten her
Inside Information - would have crushed Zenyatta
Jewel Princess - probably would have beaten her
Azeri - would have given her a good run for her money

And that's just since 1984 and only limited to female winners of the BC Distaff/Ladies ClassicNobody "crushes" Zenyatta!

[thaskalos]

I agree they are all great mares, and maybe your are right, but certainly you are in the minority. Zenyatta has already secured her place in history as the greatest mare ever.

When Gomez was interviewed after the races Saturday, he said how proud he was to beat her and said, and this is a direct quote, "she's the best I've ever seen."Jerry Bailey - who rode Cigar - stated that Zenyatta would have beaten Cigar at 10F...doesn't that count for anything?

[PaceAdvantage]

I forgot to add...the above list is strictly my opinion.

[PaceAdvantage]

Jerry Bailey - who rode Cigar - stated that Zenyatta would have beaten Cigar at 10F...does that count for anything?I don't necessarily disagree with this statement, if we're talking about non-prime-time Cigar...as in losing to Alphabet Soup Cigar.

Cigar in his prime would have dusted Zenyatta ON DIRT.