View Full Version : I am the first to admit.
Jasonm921
11-06-2010, 06:55 PM
She is a great horse. I have knocked her in the past. She is great. Just like slew gained respect from the loss. She earned a lot of respect from me. Great job.
PaceAdvantage
11-06-2010, 06:56 PM
She got the pace and she made her run....she gets all the credit in the world from me....just a shame they didn't take more chances like this
She got the pace and she made her run....she gets all the credit in the world from me....just a shame they didn't take more chances like this
I come up with these for raw figures for the Classic, Beyer scale:
6f Pace, 127, final time 114
For the Juvenile, the only other dirt route, Uncle Mo went 112 for the final time.
I'll post variant adjusted figures after doing the work, but I would suspect a mid 100s, 105 or so for the Classic. Not exactly Ferdinand/Alysheba or Alysheba/Seeking the Gold.
OntheRail
11-06-2010, 07:47 PM
She got the pace and she made her run....she gets all the credit in the world from me....just a shame they didn't take more chances like this
My feeling exactly.
tribecaagent
11-06-2010, 07:56 PM
I come up with these for raw figures for the Classic, Beyer scale:
6f Pace, 127, final time 114
For the Juvenile, the only other dirt route, Uncle Mo went 112 for the final time.
I'll post variant adjusted figures after doing the work, but I would suspect a mid 100s, 105 or so for the Classic. Not exactly Ferdinand/Alysheba or Alysheba/Seeking the Gold.
C'mon CJ. You and I should start to give her some credit. I've seen enough. She's an all-time great.
C'mon CJ. You and I should start to give her some credit. I've seen enough. She's an all-time great.
I give her credit as a very good horse. I don't think she is in the top 15 all time females. I certainly don't think Blame is any great horse, nor Lookin At Lucky. They ran about the same speed as an outstanding 2yo. Is that great?
thaskalos
11-06-2010, 08:23 PM
I give her credit as a very good horse. I don't think she is in the top 15 all time females. I certainly don't think Blame is any great horse, nor Lookin At Lucky. They ran about the same speed as an outstanding 2yo. Is that great?C'mon CJ...we all said that she could not afford to be 20 lengths back and still win this time. The fact that she came so close is pretty remarkable.
I give her credit as a very good horse. I don't think she is in the top 15 all time females. I certainly don't think Blame is any great horse, nor Lookin At Lucky. They ran about the same speed as an outstanding 2yo. Is that great?
No it's not great, it's sad. Give it up, dude, she was awesome, people loved her, and she nearly accomplished the impossible. Stop belittling Blame just because it makes Zenyatta looks less good. It's sad, it really is. So what if she is better than you always claimed. Is that really so hard for you to admit?
No it's not great, it's sad. Give it up, dude, she was awesome, people loved her, and she nearly accomplished the impossible. Stop belittling Blame just because it makes Zenyatta looks less good. It's sad, it really is. So what if she is better than you always claimed. Is that really so hard for you to admit?
I don't think I've ever claimed she wasn't very, very good. She ran well today. I'm really surprised at all the venom from objective, thought out posts that say nothing derogatory.
C'mon CJ...we all said that she could not afford to be 20 lengths back and still win this time. The fact that she came so close is pretty remarkable.
It was a fine effort, but I'm not going to go overboard just to make people happy. The pace was perfect for her and she didn't get stopped. Her being so far back was her own doing and those of her connections. It is part of being a race horse.
JustRalph
11-06-2010, 08:53 PM
I give her credit as a very good horse. I don't think she is in the top 15 all time females. I certainly don't think Blame is any great horse, nor Lookin At Lucky. They ran about the same speed as an outstanding 2yo. Is that great?
Great point.
When Randy Moss said she was the greatest female ever, I thought this was the greatest piece of hyperbole since Saddam Hussein's PR guy.
Charlie D
11-06-2010, 08:58 PM
C'mon CJ...we all said that she could not afford to be 20 lengths back and still win this time. The fact that she came so close is pretty remarkable.
Please stop this. Why?? Because she was never 20 behind the winner, in fact, she was never more than 10 behind him.
thaskalos
11-06-2010, 10:00 PM
Please stop this. Why?? Because she was never 20 behind the winner, in fact, she was never more than 10 behind him.Stop what Charlie? Who cares how far BEHIND THE WINNER she was during the race? If I knew that the horse would be 20 lengths off the lead in the early going, I would have placed her odds of winning at 10-1...and I'm not kidding.
I'm not making excuses, and I'm not saying it was anybody's fault. She left herself with too much to do. It's very hard to win coming from that far back on the dirt surface.
I really thought there was something wrong with her in the early going. She seemed out of touch with the field.
Blame gets all the credit...he was a deserving winner, like I said before...
PaceAdvantage
11-06-2010, 10:02 PM
Stop what Charlie? Who cares how far BEHIND THE WINNER she was during the race? If I knew that the horse would be 20 lengths off the lead in the early going, I would have placed her odds of winning at 10-1...and I'm not kidding.
I'm not making excuses, and I'm not saying it was anybody's fault. She left herself with too much to do. It's very hard to win coming from that far back on the dirt surface.
I really thought there was something wrong with her in the early going. She seemed out of touch with the field.
Blame gets all the credit...he was a deserving winner, like I said before...She always comes from way out of it. And today's pace was quite legitimate.
I will grant you that she was looking slower than usual early on, and Mike Smith stated it may have had something to do with her getting "hit with dirt." If you watch the reply, that actually looks like it might have been a factor...and if so, again, her connections would be at least partly to blame.
Smith also said Zenyatta, who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, may have been affected by dirt being kicked in her face. While she has raced on dirt twice before - most of her career she’s raced on synthetic surfaces - Smith said she hadn’t experienced that.
“It took her awhile to get used to it.” http://www.foxsportsohio.com/11/06/10/Zenyatta-Takes-First-Loss-At-Breeders-Cu/landing.html?blockID=347349&feedID=3724
Charlie D
11-06-2010, 10:07 PM
The fact that she came so close is pretty remarkable.
This is what i was refering to thaskalos,
Pace collapsed, Z was only a few length behind winner after 1/4
it was not "pretty remarkable" as anyone can see from the equibase chart should they bother to look.
alhattab
11-06-2010, 10:07 PM
She got the pace and she made her run....she gets all the credit in the world from me....just a shame they didn't take more chances like this
I agree. I've never been a big fan. It doesn't really matter that she lost, she was gallant and nearly beat a big field of males at 1 1/4. What a spectacle. They leave with their heads held high. Like I said, I've never been a big fan and honestly didn't respect her much. After today, I really think that we won't see the likes of Zenyatta for quite a while.
Jasonm921
11-06-2010, 10:14 PM
I agree. I've never been a big fan. It doesn't really matter that she lost, she was gallant and nearly beat a big field of males at 1 1/4. What a spectacle. They leave with their heads held high. Like I said, I've never been a big fan and honestly didn't respect her much. After today, I really think that we won't see the likes of Zenyatta for quite a while.
Ditto. Additionally, she is 6 Years old which is usually the age where thoroughbreds tend to regress so she gets major, long over due credit from me. I didn't bet a dollar on her today and somehow found myself rooting for her mid stretch over horses that I bet. I consider the monetary loss a justified fee to witness a fantastic race. I enjoyed this Breeders Cup.
I come up with these for raw figures for the Classic, Beyer scale:
6f Pace, 127, final time 114
For the Juvenile, the only other dirt route, Uncle Mo went 112 for the final time.
I'll post variant adjusted figures after doing the work, but I would suspect a mid 100s, 105 or so for the Classic. Not exactly Ferdinand/Alysheba or Alysheba/Seeking the Gold.
105 is too low. Closer to 110.
Charlie D
11-06-2010, 10:23 PM
Oh and one more thing thaskalos, the speedfigure is rubbish for a Grade 1
PaceAdvantage
11-06-2010, 10:40 PM
Don't you agree that it is next to impossible to come from 20 lengths back and win in a race like this?Not that you asked me, but no. Depending on pace and how the track is playing, how can anyone state something like this with such conviction?
Charlie D
11-06-2010, 10:41 PM
I didn't say you did make comment on speedfigures thaskalos i just thought you may be interested in such info and i'm not fighting with you, i'm just trying to point out what i think are the facts of the race that took place.
thaskalos
11-06-2010, 10:45 PM
I didn't say you did make comment on speedfigures thaskalos i just thought you may be interested in such info and i'm not fighting with you, i'm just trying to point out what i think are the facts of the race that took place.Oh...sorry! Do you know how bad the speed figure was?
Charlie D
11-06-2010, 10:54 PM
Yes, because i compiled one otherwise i would not be able to state it was rubbish for a G1
Btw, 20 back is wrong, she was 16 behind leader who ended up falling out of back of the tv along with those that chased it, She was less than 10 behind winner at same point and much less after that.
edit to add,
No "pretty remarkable" performance took place except maybe to those who look at races through rose tinted spectacles
cj wrote:
I give her credit as a very good horse. I don't think she is in the top 15 all time females. I certainly don't think Blame is any great horse, nor Lookin At Lucky. They ran about the same speed as an outstanding 2yo. Is that great?
Which females of the last 25 years do you think would have won the 2010 Classic, cj?
thaskalos
11-06-2010, 11:18 PM
Which females of the last 25 years do you think would have won the 2010 Classic, cj?Blind Luck heads the list. :)
Which females of the last 25 years do you think would have won the 2010 Classic, cj?
I'd have to think about it, and study the card a little more, so give me a few days. Prelim Beyer looks like 111, if I agree I'd rethink my Blind Luck post.
105 is too low. Closer to 110.
Beyer says 111...I haven't done enough work, or any really, so I won't give too many opinions. Don't want Pick6 coming unglued again.
Which females of the last 25 years do you think would have won the 2010 Classic, cj?
Personal Ensign had the ability and running style to win it. I've seen a few others that had the basic ability to win or be right there but forward running style might've been problematic today.
Not Blind Luck. Honest filly, she's grown on me but she's not Zenyatta.
Beyer says 111...I haven't done enough work, or any really, so I won't give too many opinions. Don't want Pick6 coming unglued again.
Can you point me to your source for prelim Beyers? Thanks.
Can you point me to your source for prelim Beyers? Thanks.
I posted them in the Handicapping Section, all of them.
Personal Ensign had the ability and running style to win it. I've seen a few others that had the basic ability to win or be right there but forward running style might've been problematic today.
Not Blind Luck. Honest filly, she's grown on me but she's not Zenyatta.
I understand, but she is 3. At this point in her career Z was still a maiden.
I posted them in the Handicapping Section, all of them.
Where did you find them, though?
Where did you find them, though?
DRF Formulator Web. I posted how to do it a few months back on here if you search.
PhantomOnTour
11-07-2010, 12:37 AM
Which females of the last 25 years do you think would have won the 2010 Classic, cj?
Rags To Riches?
Eight Belles was a huge filly and may have developed into something special as well.
Pace collapsed, Z was only a few length behind winner after 1/4
:confused: 16.25 back at the 1/4 is a "few?"
Whatchewtalkingabout?
Charlie D
11-07-2010, 01:03 AM
:confused: 16.25 back at the 1/4 is a "few?"
Whatchewtalkingabout?
That is behind Leader at 1/4 point Tom is it not??
classhandicapper
11-07-2010, 01:11 AM
You guys are off base in assuming that any of the best 3YO fillies of all time would have improved at 4 due to further development. Most fillies develop sooner that colts and are 100% or close of what they are going to be by the middle or end of their 3YO campaign. That's why last year when we were discussing Rachel I correctly predicted we had almost certainly already seen her best.
There are some rare exceptions and even horses like Zenyatta that get very late starts that develop after their 3YO year, but the ones that come out running early, get plenty of seasoning etc... and start winning big races at 3 peak before colts.
It's this development issue that has enabled many 3YO fillies to race competitively against colts in the Derby prep races and even in the Triple Crown, but so few have been competitive in Grade 1 company against older horses. (grass racing and sprint racing is an entirely different story).
PhantomOnTour
11-07-2010, 01:38 AM
You guys are off base in assuming that any of the best 3YO fillies of all time would have improved at 4 due to further development. Most fillies develop sooner that colts and are 100% or close of what they are going to be by the middle or end of their 3YO campaign. That's why last year when we were discussing Rachel I correctly predicted we had almost certainly already seen her best.
There are some rare exceptions and even horses like Zenyatta that get very late starts that develop after their 3YO year, but the ones that come out running early, get plenty of seasoning etc... and start winning big races at 3 peak before colts.
It's this development issue that has enabled many 3YO fillies to race competitively against colts in the Derby prep races and even in the Triple Crown, but so few have been competitive in Grade 1 company against older horses. (grass racing and sprint racing is an entirely different story).
Some great points. Makes me wonder about a gal like Blind Luck. She's had a rugged campaign with lots of tough races and travel.
Oh and one more thing thaskalos, the speedfigure is rubbish for a Grade 1
So now that the Classic is rated 111 and the Mile is rated 105, just wondering if you think the Mile was rubbish?
Since Beyers are all the rage, here's an interesting comparison of Breeders' Cup figures:
Zenyatta 108-112-111
Goldikova 107-109-105
Charlie D
11-07-2010, 01:25 AM
Not got a reliable Turf par RXB so i really can't give you anything on that query.
That's a bit of an edit from the initial draft of your missive, Charlie. :) But I'll call it an improvement, give you due credit for that, at least, and call it a night. Cheerio.
lamboguy
11-07-2010, 01:49 AM
after watching this race a few times, i came up with the conclusion that she ran her very best race in defeat. it looks to me that she finished faster than she ever did, and had to do more weaving to get into a winning type position than she ever did. she faced as quality a field as there has ever been in the history of horse racing and she came up short a lip.
probably the reason why she is so great is that she never is anywhere near the pace in a race and is never tired down the lane. you have to give credit to the trainer and rider for that. like everyone else, i would have loved to see her get her 20th win today, but i was still very happy with the 110% effort she put out today.
depalma113
11-07-2010, 05:17 AM
:confused: 16.25 back at the 1/4 is a "few?"
Whatchewtalkingabout?
She was 9 lengths behind the winner after a quarter of a mile.
tucker6
11-07-2010, 05:30 AM
after watching this race a few times, i came up with the conclusion that she ran her very best race in defeat. it looks to me that she finished faster than she ever did, and had to do more weaving to get into a winning type position than she ever did. she faced as quality a field as there has ever been in the history of horse racing and she came up short a lip.
probably the reason why she is so great is that she never is anywhere near the pace in a race and is never tired down the lane. you have to give credit to the trainer and rider for that. like everyone else, i would have loved to see her get her 20th win today, but i was still very happy with the 110% effort she put out today.Not sure how you come up with that statement?? I can think of two off the top of my head, with several more bubbling up to the surface. For starters, try the 78 JCGC and the 73 Marlboro Cup. Those races had multiple award winning horses with multiple awards entered. As far as I could tell, and I could be wrong, but yesterday's BCC did not include any horse that has won a HOY award or similar such title. Correct??
I will grant you that this was the best field in 2010, and maybe for the last couple years. This field had several good classic distance runners in it. None were great. Let's not forget that as memorable as the 2010 BCC was, it was still three seconds slower than the track record.
depalma113
11-07-2010, 05:57 AM
after watching this race a few times, i came up with the conclusion that she ran her very best race in defeat. it looks to me that she finished faster than she ever did, and had to do more weaving to get into a winning type position than she ever did. she faced as quality a field as there has ever been in the history of horse racing and she came up short a lip.
probably the reason why she is so great is that she never is anywhere near the pace in a race and is never tired down the lane. you have to give credit to the trainer and rider for that. like everyone else, i would have loved to see her get her 20th win today, but i was still very happy with the 110% effort she put out today.
Are you kidding? It was a solid Grade One field, but nothing more. I guess we are so used to not seeing grade one fields anymore, that our sense of perspective is greatly diminished.
Her race last year was better, but it was her prefered surface. Her race this year stamped her as a legitimate Grade One horse and one that could have won many of the top races in America, if her connections had been so bold.
BlueShoe
11-07-2010, 09:14 AM
To be candid about it, did not expect Z to hit the board, and was amazed when she made her late run. Just did not think that she was good enough to beat colts on dirt. Playing what if; if an at-her-best Rachel A gone, doubt if she would have been around at the finish. Have heard a few grumbles about Z's ride, a few saying that MS should not have dropped so far back and should have moved sooner.
Are you kidding? It was a solid Grade One field, but nothing more. I guess we are so used to not seeing grade one fields anymore, that our sense of perspective is greatly diminished.
Exactly. In fact, by BC Classic standards, I would definitely say it was below average. Females rarely win-- or lose by a mere head-- when faced with genuine top-class male horses. Blame's a Gr 1 horse, superior to the dreadfully weak older dirt horses of last year, but by older male champ standards I'd certainly rate him below the median.
Bullet Plane
11-07-2010, 10:02 AM
The Beyer Par in the DRF is 117 for the classic. This one got a 111. So, its kind of slow for the classic. But, a solid Beyer for Grade 1. I'd say Z ran super for a mare. Blame was a little below average for a Classic horse.
But, that is what made it such a super race.
lamboguy
11-07-2010, 10:36 AM
Are you kidding? It was a solid Grade One field, but nothing more. I guess we are so used to not seeing grade one fields anymore, that our sense of perspective is greatly diminished.
Her race last year was better, but it was her prefered surface. Her race this year stamped her as a legitimate Grade One horse and one that could have won many of the top races in America, if her connections had been so bold.no i am not kidding, the field had great horses in it, looking at lucky, quality road, blame the japanese horse and ZENYATTA. i really don't know of any jockey gold cup race that had more in it since i have been alive. my partner had a horse that broke down in that race TIMELY WRITER, he was the favorite that sad day and i can honestly say that he wasn't as good as any of the other's i mentioned above. on paper before the classic race i don't think that any horseplayer could dispute that race was loaded with talent
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