New Product Poll: Percentages & Probabilities

[Dave Schwartz]

I am in the process of completing Percentages & Probabilities, 2010. Before I put more time into this project I want to make sure there is a market for it. (Perhaps this is a little late since it is already 238 pages, but better late than never.)

My question is: "Does anyone really want a serious work like this?" Cost will be around $85.


Here is a partial table of contents:

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2010_Contents.png


Here are a couple of sample pages:

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2010_Sample1.png

[Dave Schwartz]

Please feel free to ask questions or suggest things/factors you'd like to see in this book.


The book is actually more like Quirin's Winning at the Races than Davis' Percentages & Probabilities. However, like the original P&P, it comes with systems for every kind of race.


Dave

[Overlay]

I would prefer data without comment, interpretation, or application (other than an explanation of abbreviations, and of how metrics were derived), as in Nunamaker's Modern Impact Values. I would also like to see sub-groupings similar to Nunamaker's with respect to age, sex, distance (or distance category (i.e., sprint/route)), and (especially) running surface (including artificial surfaces). Utilizing Quirin's/Nunamaker's categories (or as many as are still available/applicable) (including Quirin factors that Nunamaker omitted, such as jockey groupings) would also allow comparison of how the effectiveness of individual metrics has changed over time.

[banacek]

Will this data be separated by tracks or just all the tracks together? I love this kind of stuff, but if it mixes Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Keenland, etc all together, I'm not sure if I would be interested.

[Tom]

"Does anyone really want a serious work like this?"


Yes.

[Dave Schwartz]

Banacek & Overlay,

Some of it is by track, some is not. If the whole thing was by track it would be 2,000 pages.

Consider the original P&P. He highlighted a few factors, produced an IV Table and a short commentary. At the end there were systems.

Essentially, I have begun by creating 18 systems, each representing a type of race. The path through the book is to decide which factors are the best representation for each system.

Beginning with speed, it contains many tables showing why I decided upon a particular factor. We consider top rank, top two ranks, and the rear-half of the field, looking for the widest differences in $Nets and IVs.

Overlay, I know you would prefer pure data but not everyone wants that. I think most people want me to tell them what I found but show them the actual tables so that they may verify for themselves.


Dave

[Ghostrider5]

Hey Dave are these systems like spot plays? If not what are these systems based on.



Ghostrider5

[Dave Schwartz]

Systems are designed to rate all horses, determining a "probability."

[PhantomOnTour]

I can't speak for others, but at my current level of play, a book like this is what I'm looking for....statistics! I don't need a 'how to' book.

Question: when you say 'top rated' you are referring to your ratings/numbers, correct? Must one be a customer/subscriber to your pars or figs to understand what's in the book?

[Dave Schwartz]

My experience is that speed ratings are highly similar to each other. The Beyer number, while being different than a par-based number, is still a speed rating. So is the BRIS number.

They all (BRIS, Beyer, par-based) have different characteristics but are, for all intents and purposes, interchangeable. This will not be true in a given race but over a large sample.

The Beyer number will get a few more winners but produce a lower mutuel. Par-based numbers will produce a few less winners but with a higher mutuel.

BTW, the plan is to include a set of 2010 HorseStreet Track Pars with the book.

[Dave Schwartz]

One issue I am struggling with... The cost to print and ship a 400-page, 8.5" x 11" book is huge. It is probably $22 to print and $12-14 to ship.

What are your thoughts on this as an e-book?


Dave

[socantra]

One issue I am struggling with... The cost to print and ship a 400-page, 8.5" x 11" book is huge. It is probably $22 to print and $12-14 to ship.

What are your thoughts on this as an e-book?


I'm excited that this project has neared the top of the pile. I've been looking forward to it for almost two years.

I think an e-book sounds like a perfect solution. Or, make it available both ways. Those who feel they really have to have a paper copy can pay the extra printing and shipping costs. I really don't need another 400 page book on my shelves.

Dick..

[Tom]

e book!

[punteray]

E-BOOK

punteray

[ceejay]

I voted 25% because the likelihood is 0% if only hard copy is available and 50% if E-BOOK.

[Dave Schwartz]

Socantra,

Thanks for the kind words. I'll try to get it finished before Christmas.

Stay tuned.


Dave

[Handiman]

How bout an audio book Dave? I'm really lazy.:lol:


An E-book would be great I think.

Handi:)

[Dave Schwartz]

Audio book...

Makes me think of the guy who, after playing about 40 hours of my videos, said, "My wife says she's sick of your voice."

Even I would get sick of my voice after reading table after table of statistics out loud.

[PhantomOnTour]

Question:
How do some threads wind up on the first page even though no one has posted in days or weeks? The last post on this thread was Nov 10th.

[banacek]

Question:
How do some threads wind up on the first page even though no one has posted in days or weeks? The last post on this thread was Nov 10th.

I think it's because someone voted in the poll associated with the page.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think it's because someone voted in the poll associated with the page.Indeed. When that happens, I usually close voting.

[Overlay]

Indeed. When that happens, I usually close voting.

PA,

You're the moderator and can do what you want, but I'm not sure that I follow your logic there. Since people can't vote twice on the poll, wouldn't any new comment/vote (regardless of when it appears) be information that the poll-taker is seeking and can use (as long as the subject of the poll itself has not been overtaken by events, which I don't think would apply here)?

[PaceAdvantage]

PA,

You're the moderator and can do what you want, but I'm not sure that I follow your logic there. Since people can't vote twice on the poll, wouldn't any new comment/vote (regardless of when it appears) be information that the poll-taker is seeking and can use (as long as the subject of the poll itself has not been overtaken by events, which I don't think would apply here)?My logic is that if a thread/poll has been dead for months, and all of a sudden it gets "put to the top" because somebody comes along and votes in the poll, then it is time to close that poll due to lack of interest.

The problem with most of these polls is that the poll creator never sets a closing time/date for the poll. They leave it open forever....

[Overlay]

My logic is that if a thread/poll has been dead for months, and all of a sudden it gets "put to the top" because somebody comes along and votes in the poll, then it is time to close that poll due to lack of interest.

The problem with most of these polls is that the poll creator never sets a closing time/date for the poll. They leave it open forever....

Yes, but the poll started just over a month ago, and it concerns a product that Dave hasn't even released yet. (I was assuming that Dave was going to close the poll when his study was published, which he said would be around Christmas (two weeks).) He's just doing some preliminary scouting concerning possibly interested board members.

[Dave Schwartz]

I did not know I could close the poll myself. Not that I'd want to yet.

[Overlay]

I did not know I could close the poll myself. Not that I'd want to yet.

Sorry, Dave. I also don't know whether you could close the poll on your own (at least without PA's involvement). (I was less than exact with my wording.) I just meant that the poll will have served its primary purpose for you in helping to decide whether potential demand for an updated Percentages and Probabilities would justify the resources in researching, writing, and publishing it. Once that decision had been made, the poll would only be a record of those who had expressed an interest (if you're compiling that data).

[PaceAdvantage]

Alright already...the poll is open again...sheesh...so I made a mistake...sue me... :lol:

And you set the "timer" for a poll when you create that poll...there's a box where you can enter the number of days after which the poll will close.

[bigmack]

Alright already...the poll is open again...sheesh...so I made a mistake...sue me...
This aggression will not stand.

I say we start a sit-in. Who's with me?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/protestpa.png

[Richard]

Dave,
Definitetly go e-book and let us know when ready.

[misscashalot]

Is it available in Excel?

[Dave Schwartz]

Well, it isn't available in anything yet, but no, it will not be available in Excel. It is a book as opposed to just tables. There are tables but there is a lot of explanation as well.

[John]

Can all this stuff really make you a winner?

[Capper Al]

Can all this stuff really make you a winner?

Some stuff doesn't work, some stuff works for others but not for you, but if is going to work for you then you must obtain a deep understanding of how the data is made up. You must be one with the data and its processes. Trust the force. Turn away from the easy methods of the dark side.

[Overlay]

Can all this stuff really make you a winner?

Everybody has their own dispositions and preferences, but, for me, the kind of quantitative performance data that I believe Dave is working on has more practical application to improving my handicapping than less exact, theoretical discussion of general concepts and principles.

[Dave Schwartz]

Al,

That is truly an intelligent answer.
Thanks.


John,

Becoming a winning player is usually the result of ongoing incremental improvement in your game. Ultimately, of course, it IS one single thing that propels one into the black.

The goal should be to gain some improvement in your results from anything you learn.

One common mistake many players make is to not keep records. Without records, how can one possibly know if they are improving?

When someone without records tries something new, the only litmus test they have is, "Am I a winning player NOW?" Rarely will the answer be, "Yes" because they have no basis to build upon.

So, the answer is, "Yes," or "Maybe" depending upon where you are now.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[banacek]

When someone without records tries something new, the only litmus test they have is, "Am I a winning player NOW?"

Which reminds me of "The Basics of Winning" you were going to do a couple of years ago..has that project been shelved?

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - No. Well, yes. I guess they are all on the shelf.

My next project to finish is Percentages & Probabilities. After that I probably will dust off one of those that are on the shelf and finish it.

The Basics of Winning has evolved quite a bit for me. It may see a new, simple title and become something "How to Bet" because that seems to be such a (huge and neglected) part of the game.

Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

Update: I am working on this project steadily but it will not be the next release. The plan is for it to release before mid-year, though.

[Capper Al]

My question is: "Does anyone really want a serious work like this?"

I'm in. Will it be comprehensive over all types of races-- maidens, claiming, allowances, graded, sprints, routes etc.

[Dave Schwartz]

That is what I have done thus far, Al.


Dave

[Mike A]

very VERY in.

[gl45]

I'm in

[Dave Schwartz]

Would you rather this book was more like Modern Impact Values?

What I mean is, would you rather it have just many more IV Tables?


This came to me last night - that perhaps what you guys would prefer would be a much larger set of IV Tables broken down by type of race.

What I have produced thus far has a great deal of narrative to it and SOME IV Tables. Oh, there are lots of tables, but not just a compendium of data as M.I.V. was.

Opinions?


Dave

[Overlay]

Would you rather this book was more like Modern Impact Values?

What I mean is, would you rather it have just many more IV Tables?
My response (which I believe I previously expressed) is Yes. Just put enough narrative (as Nunamaker did at the beginning of MIV) to explain terminology/abbreviations and to provide sufficient information about data sources and collection/presentation methods to be able to interpret it. Other than that, let the IV tables themselves do the talking.

[Dave Schwartz]

I knew you would say that.

Does anyone else have an opinion?

[Johnny V]

I would prefer a larger set of IV tables broken down by race/distance/surface etc. with some narrative to clarify and explain as necessary. I look forward to the books availability.

[Dave Schwartz]

So, it is official! This product will be available for pre-production purchase tomorrow and will be released on Christmas day!

$117 in eBook or PDF format.

PA Early-bird price will be $87.

Details to follow tomorrow.


Stay tuned.

[Tom]

Should I leave milk and cookies out for you for the delivery? :D

[Dave Schwartz]

Absolutely! I understand that Santa really likes oatmeal and raisin cookies.

[thaskalos]

So, it is official! This product will be available for pre-production purchase tomorrow and will be released on Christmas day!

$117 in eBook or PDF format.

PA Early-bird price will be $87.

Details to follow tomorrow.


Stay tuned.
Dave,

Would it be too much to ask to have you print at least one hardcopy version of this book?

I would be willing to pay the extra price...plus the shipping costs.

I just hate reading data off the computer screen.

[Dave Schwartz]

Do you want it 4 or 5 in 3-ring binders?

Or do you need it in a single, bound book?


There is a huge cost difference.


Dave

[thaskalos]

If the single bound book lies flat when open, that would be perfect.

Otherwise, I'll take the 3-ring binders.

Thanks.

[Dave Schwartz]

A 500-page, bound book cannot lay flat.

I will make a printed, 3-ring binder-ready option available. And will work out the cost. My best guess is around $100 extra, with the binders, plus shipping.


Dave

[Capper Al]

Hey Dave,

Will you do a little like Amazon and give us a look inside your book?

Thanks

[Dave Schwartz]

As soon as I can I will do that.

I am actually re-working the entire book because the data is from 2009 and I want to use this year's data as well.