View Full Version : Official PaceAdvantage.com Breeders' Cup Classic Analysis

11-06-2010, 05:33 AM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg Quality Road (3/1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg Espoir City (6/1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/12.jpg Lookin At Lucky (8/1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg Blame (9/1)

I know what you're all saying to yourselves. "That idiot must have forgotten that Zenyatta is running in this race! He forgot to list her!"

No, no, no kind madams and sirs, I have not forgotten a thing. Unlike others out there clinging tightly to their touchy-feely good time stories of horses who "know exactly where the wire is" and "run just hard enough to win," I come at this game in a much different, much colder and much more calculating manner.

Don't believe me? Don't think it's possible to reduce such a beautiful sport and such majestic animals to mere numbers on a page? Touchy-feely doesn't bring you these kinds of pre-race prognostications and $96 winners, posted BEFORE THE RACE...no siree Bob:

Looks like I'm getting a humongous price on http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg Shared Account...definitely worth a wager at 10/1 or over...at 30/1 it's amazing

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg Midday will of course be tough, but not worth 4/5

Bunch of other horses at juicy prices:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg (12/1 or over) http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/3.jpg (20/1 or over) & http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg (16/1 or over)

Looks like I'll have multiple win bets in this race.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=76947&page=2&pp=26So, with that fresh in your minds, don't be so quick to doubt me when I go off half-cocked and crazy leaving Zenyatta out of my top four selections. (Hat tip to CJ and his http://www.PaceFigures.com numbers that I have been working with as of late. He really does craft some fine pace figs, which I utilized to help make the above score on Shared Account).

Quality Road was my pick last year before he freaked out in the starting gate, and he'll be my pick once again this year at anything over 3/1. Do I have doubts about his ability to negotiate near the front end and still be there at the end of a ten panel race? Of course I do. That's why I need 3/1 or better, which I will no doubt be getting. This horse is no stranger to mixing it up on the front end (which he could very well do with First Dude) and still being a force at the end, even going this distance (albeit in the slop).

Espoir City, the Japanese import, will be THE overlay of this race in my opinion, although people seem to be talking him up more and more, so I don't think I'll see the 20/1 morning line price. But anything at 6/1 or better and I am licking my chops on this one. An earner of almost $6M and a winner of 11 of 20 in Japan, Espoir City just feels like the right kind of horse who can upset the Zenyatta fairy tale in spectacular fashion. He should love the mile and a quarter distance, seeing as both his sire AND dam sport an average winning distance of over one mile, something you just don't see every day.

Lookin At Lucky is the horse I have shunned all year long. He just never did it for me, and honestly, I didn't think I would have him in my top four for this race. But the more I looked, the more I thought this horse is going to run back to his Haskell/Preakness. I threw out his last race in the slop, despite it being a winning effort. When you're left with the Haskell and Preakness, you're looking at a horse who can easily win this race. I expect him to run very well.

Last but not least is Blame. I know this is going to sound like blasphemy, but I believe Blame is a better closer than Zenyatta. That's enough for me to put him in the fourth spot.

Ok, ok, I'll mention Zenyatta if it will make you happy. Zenyatta has never before faced the kind of horses she will be facing later today. She has never faced Grade 1 males on dirt. She faced Grade 1 turf and dirt males running on her home court synthetic surface in 2009. Huge difference this year. Quality Road alone is going to be much tougher to run down than a Rinterval or Switch (note what little respect those two received in the F&M sprint). Blame and even Musket Man have late figures that have exceeded Zenyatta's on multiple occasions. How anyone can bet this filly at the price she will be offered is beyond me. Can she win? Of course she can. This is horse racing. Zenyatta is an amazing mare who knows how to win and loves doing so. There are simply better options at better prices, which as we all should know, is the name of the game when it comes to betting horses.

Other selections on the day
Juvenile Turf
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/3.jpg
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/9.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg
Turf Sprint
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/13.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/9.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg
Dirt Mile
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/12.jpg
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg