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View Full Version : Projected overlays & underlays, day 1 (Friday)

Valuist
11-04-2010, 11:11 PM
Based on the CD morning line, these are overlays and underlays, IMO

race 3-Jimmy V--overlays: Don Tito, Don't Put it Back, Bulldogger; underlays: Noble's Promise, Cool Bullet and Backtalk

race 4-Ack Ack Cap--overlay: Colizeo underlay: Demarcation

race 5-Marathon--overlays:Eldaafer, Alcomo, Precision Break underlays: Giant Oak, AU Miner, Prince Will I Am

race 6-Juv Filly Turf--overlays: More than Real, Kathmanblu, Tale Untold underlays: Together, Quiet Oasis, Wyomia, Fancy Point

race 7--Filly Mare Sprint--overlays: Sara Louise, Evening Jewel, Jessica is Back
underlays: Rightly So, Informed Decision

race 8--Juvenile Fillies--overlays: Theyskens Theory, Awesome Feather, Believe in AP; underlays- AZ Warrior, Tell a Kelly

race 9--F/M Turf--overlays; Red Desire, Eclair de Lune underlays: Midday, Hibaayeb, Forever Together

race 10--Distaff--overlays: Unrivaled Belle, Acoma underlays: Havre de Grace
cj
11-04-2010, 11:16 PM
Big underlay, Winter Memories.
Valuist
11-04-2010, 11:23 PM
I thought about adding her. The more I think about it, I agree. Her big win was on a yielding course, with a 50-1 shot in 2nd, and her style may be better suited to a big, sweeping course like Belmont. I know she broke her Mdn on a firm, but the rest of that field looks suspect. She could still win, but at 2-1 or probably less?
Enigma
11-05-2010, 09:22 AM
Winter Memories will win.

Anything over 2/1 and to me she is an overlay.
Valuist
11-05-2010, 10:03 AM
The more I think of the Filly Sprint, I'm not sure Sara Louise and Evening Jewel will be overlays. Its just a real bad morning line. Both will be under 10-1. I can see Sara Louise around 6-1. Even all the TVG guys are picking her.
olddaddy
11-05-2010, 10:31 AM
The more I think of the Filly Sprint, I'm not sure Sara Louise and Evening Jewel will be overlays. Its just a real bad morning line. Both will be under 10-1. I can see Sara Louise around 6-1. Even all the TVG guys are picking her.

I thought the same but the english books have them as 5th and 6th choice.
Valuist
11-05-2010, 11:44 AM
I thought the same but the english books have them as 5th and 6th choice.

English books are great at odds projections for turf races. Not nearly so sharp when it comes to evaluating US dirt horses.
cj
11-06-2010, 03:46 AM
English books are great at odds projections for turf races. Not nearly so sharp when it comes to evaluating US dirt horses.

Very nice calls today, especially the underlays.
Valuist
11-09-2010, 07:58 PM
Very nice calls today, especially the underlays.

Thanks. It was a good day but should've been better.