Zenyatta's speed figures, is she fast enough?

[Stillriledup]

Of course i baited you with that title, i wanted to get your blood to boil, of course she's fast enough. What i want to know is this. There are some speed figure pundits out there who say she's 'too slow'. I guess if you look at Beyer, Ragozin or TGraph you might have wonder how Z can never have run a number 'fast enough' to be able to compete in this race.

Some handicappers are saying that Z runs as fast as she has to run to win. But, if that's true, she's never had to run a seriously high negative Rag/TG number to win. Some say that its hard to make accurate 'sheet' numbers on artificial tracks, but Z has run twice on dirt and her numbers were 'slow' in those races also, despite large margins of victory both times.

This is a great exercise in speed figure boys vs people who don't really put all that much stock in numbers on a graph.

If Z runs her usual number, will she be good enough to win? Can she run a minus 5 (or something amazing) to beat the main contenders who might run minus 3s and 4s?

People get very emotional when it comes to Z, so most aren't interested in looking at the raw data. I think there's a reason that companies can sell these numbers for big money....if they didnt work, wouldnt these people be out of business charging 25 or 30 a pop on something that had 'no validity'?

The most amazing thing to me is that when i watch Z's stride and how she looks SO far superior to other 'decent' horses, that i just can't understand how she hasn't ever run some 'bizarre' sheet number in her career. There are horses who wouldnt even crack the top 1,000 all time horses who have run negative numbers, so running a Negative number is somewhat commonplace. In today's game, high priced claimers can routinely stick up a -1 or a -2 on occasion, yet Z doesnt seem to be able to routinely run these types of numbers.

Maybe the speed figure system is flawed that a horse like Z can't get an extremely fast number...and she's had 19 chances.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think you are correct about her Sheet/TG numbers.

I seem to recall that Ragozin has a few of her races being extremely fast.

Thoro-graph has her fast, but nowhere near as fast as some of the best colts. However, some people feel that TG has the CA circuit a little slower than most other figure makers. So there could be a circuit issue that accounts for the difference between TG and RAGs.

You have to remember that both those figure makers adjust for ground loss and weight and Z has often lost a ton of ground and carried fairly high weight.

[Sericm]

(People get very emotional when it comes to Z, so most aren't interested in looking at the raw data. I think there's a reason that companies can sell these numbers for big money....if they didnt work, wouldnt these people be out of business charging 25 or 30 a pop on something that had 'no validity'?)

These people charge $25 and $30 bucks because there' a sucker born every minute thinking they have something exotic that nobody else can come up with on their own. What the hell does -2, -5, 0, -7 mean anyway.

Learn math, get paper and pencil and learn how to read a form and you can come up with same d---. horses. My wife picks them just as good just looking at the form. Learn Math and how to bet.

[Steve R]

Of course i baited you with that title, i wanted to get your blood to boil, of course she's fast enough. What i want to know is this. There are some speed figure pundits out there who say she's 'too slow'. I guess if you look at Beyer, Ragozin or TGraph you might have wonder how Z can never have run a number 'fast enough' to be able to compete in this race.

Some handicappers are saying that Z runs as fast as she has to run to win. But, if that's true, she's never had to run a seriously high negative Rag/TG number to win. Some say that its hard to make accurate 'sheet' numbers on artificial tracks, but Z has run twice on dirt and her numbers were 'slow' in those races also, despite large margins of victory both times.

This is a great exercise in speed figure boys vs people who don't really put all that much stock in numbers on a graph.

If Z runs her usual number, will she be good enough to win? Can she run a minus 5 (or something amazing) to beat the main contenders who might run minus 3s and 4s?

People get very emotional when it comes to Z, so most aren't interested in looking at the raw data. I think there's a reason that companies can sell these numbers for big money....if they didnt work, wouldnt these people be out of business charging 25 or 30 a pop on something that had 'no validity'?

The most amazing thing to me is that when i watch Z's stride and how she looks SO far superior to other 'decent' horses, that i just can't understand how she hasn't ever run some 'bizarre' sheet number in her career. There are horses who wouldnt even crack the top 1,000 all time horses who have run negative numbers, so running a Negative number is somewhat commonplace. In today's game, high priced claimers can routinely stick up a -1 or a -2 on occasion, yet Z doesnt seem to be able to routinely run these types of numbers.

Maybe the speed figure system is flawed that a horse like Z can't get an extremely fast number...and she's had 19 chances.
I can only speak for my own figures. Just two other potential starters have a lifetime best figure on dirt better than Zenyatta's and both of those are questionable at 10f, especially under any sort of pace pressure. I'm no big fan, but based on my figures alone, I think she has a terrific chance if she reproduces a top effort. I don't believe for a minute the issue is her ability relative to the competition. It's simply whether she runs the race she is capable of. That said, IMO there are no horses in this field that compare favorably to many BC Classic starters of the past. Based on the average figures of previous fields, I would rate this the second or third slowest group in over a decade.

[WJ47]

I don't know. I think that Blame is going to win this race. I'm really excited for the race. I'd love to see Zenyatta win, but she's really going to have to be at her best to beat Blame or Quality Road. I'm not a big user of speed figures, but the others appear faster. I'm most concerned about how she will like to run on the dirt.

[David-LV]

I don't know. I think that Blame is going to win this race. I'm really excited for the race. I'd love to see Zenyatta win, but she's really going to have to be at her best to beat Blame or Quality Road. I'm not a big user of speed figures, but the others appear faster. I'm most concerned about how she will like to run on the dirt.

Based on what Blame looked like in his last race the JGC, delay of a workout over the weekend and the probable pace of the Classic, I don't think Blame has a chance to hit the board.

_________
David-LV

[gm10]

We have this slightly bizarre situation with Zenyatta where people claim she isn't that good because she's never run a 'big number'.

This makes no sense to me. If she's never been beaten, has won over several surfaces, beaten the best in the Classic, then the only thing that isn't great are those speed figures which are supposedly too low.

Instead of complaining about her figs being too low, the surface not being reliable for figs, blablabla, those speed figure makers should have taken this unique opportunity to discover the flaws in their methodology and fix them.

[Endsweep24]

There is actually a thread in the TG Forum that talks exactly about this, it seems that it is a mile and a 1/2 long. And most everyone over there gives Z no chance at all, Reason being she is to slow on the TG sheets compared to a few of the others in the Race. THere is alot of garbage in that thread But there are a few posters over there who are unbiased and give a good overview telling why they think Z will not hit the board using the TG sheets.

[thaskalos]

We have this slightly bizarre situation with Zenyatta where people claim she isn't that good because she's never run a 'big number'.

This makes no sense to me. If she's never been beaten, has won over several surfaces, beaten the best in the Classic, then the only thing that isn't great are those speed figures which are supposedly too low.

Instead of complaining about her figs being too low, the surface not being reliable for figs, blablabla, those speed figure makers should have taken this unique opportunity to discover the flaws in their methodology and fix them.GM10, in your expert opinion...is there a chance that Zenyatta's connections noticed early in the year that their horse wasn't exactly the same as before ability-wise...and they have chosen to "take it easy" on her - with an unambitious campaign and subdued efforts - thus saving her best for the Classic?

I keep listening to jockey Mike Smith say that we will see something special from her in the Classic...and visions of Secretariat's "Belmont" start crossing my mind...:)

[George Sands]

There is actually a thread in the TG Forum that talks exactly about this, it seems that it is a mile and a 1/2 long. And most everyone over there gives Z no chance at all

This is not even close to being true.

[Charlie D]

Yep!!!

[gm10]

GM10, in your expert opinion...is there a chance that Zenyatta's connections noticed early in the year that their horse wasn't exactly the same as before ability-wise...and they have chosen to "take it easy" on her - with an unambitious campaign and subdued efforts - thus saving her best for the Classic?

I keep listening to jockey Mike Smith say that we will see something special from her in the Classic...and visions of Secretariat's "Belmont" start crossing my mind...:)

FWIW I don't think she's lost a step. I think she just needs a bit further than 8.5-9F these days. A few more races like her last and she'd have lost at some point against a talented, fully cranked-up filly who could get a jump on her (like Switch).

I agree that we'll see her best race of the year, but mainly because it is over 10F which looks ideal. I also like the weight allowance she gets for being a mare, I think it helps her more than we think. Not that it will slow the others down that much more, but it will help her get into position and kick it into highest gear just a bit faster. I also think that her speed figs (even this year's) are right up there with the best of this lot.

[Robert Fischer]

speed figures do a great job at what they're supposed to do.
It is up to you to figure out "what speed figures are supposed to do" = plenty of posts on the subject.
i don't have much expertise with speed figs at all, but I can offer some ballpark ideas for the noobs(advanced players should either already have their own ideas, or they should have the skill set to look it up and make their own opinion if they want to)

speed figures -

tell how fast the horse ran from the gate to the wire in the past race for which the figure was made.
they are based on raw final time, and track-variant(an attempt to measure the speed of the track by comparing to other reliable horses from the same race or other races at the same or similar distances, or if the preceding aren't available a scientific estimate), a 3rd basis-an adjustment by an expert may occur when the speed rating will obviously vary from the performance rating especially for highranked horses and/or highvisibility races(this adjustment is the controversial part if there is any controversy in making speed ratings.

speed figures also do a good job at predicting future performance when a number of variables that tend to cause differing circumstances than those at which the past figure(s) were earned can be eliminated. This takes skill, so the idea that that those who successfully use(or even rely on) speed figures as predictors lack skill, is bogus. It takes a lot of accurate insight to accurately eliminate the possibility that new or different factors (including the events in between races, the dynamics of the races themselves and other factors) can be eliminated so that the speed figure will be at its most predictable. Some players may use a list of factors that must remain constant in order for a play based on speed figures to be made, others look at the specific factors themselves and attempt to be more dynamic.

this is just general info, and some speed figure experts may disagree with parts of it...
It's up to you to form your own opinions and then apply it to races (such as the ZenyattaCup)

[bisket]

i use speed figs to see if a horse is fast. i generally don't compare one horse's fig to another unless there is a big difference. another words: one horse ran a 102 beyer and another ran a 110. their ability is comparable in my opinion. factors in today's race can make the difference as to who will win.

zenyatta is definately just as fast as any of these. i think its without a doubt she's faster than all of these. i'm not impressed with any of these runners outside her. the only thing that can do zen in is if she hits to much traffic or is a victim of race riding.

[BluegrassProf]

the only thing that can do zen in is if she hits to much traffic or is a victim of race riding.If by that you also meant to include "...or is beaten by a faster horse on that day," then absolutely: totally agreed. Good call. :ThmbUp:

[Endsweep24]

This is not even close to being true.

Dont Know what you are looking at but it is true heres the link to the start of the thread

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,62292,62292#msg-62292

Feel free to read the 100 or so post if you like even Jerry Brown doesn't think she will win

[garyscpa]

Dont Know what you are looking at but it is true heres the link to the start of the thread

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,62292,62292#msg-62292

Feel free to read the 100 or so post if you like even Jerry Brown doesn't think she will win

I liked the "Wonder what those mares Z was beating in photos would go off at in this race..."

[George Sands]

Dont Know what you are looking at but it is true heres the link to the start of the thread

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,62292,62292#msg-62292

Feel free to read the 100 or so post if you like even Jerry Brown doesn't think she will win

This is not even a good try. First you say "And most everyone over there gives Z no chance at all." That is false. A lot of posters on the string give her a very good chance--including a parade of posters right below the string starter. Then there is TGAB's post. He is an employee. Your post was total nonsense and you'll see that if you read the string with your original words in mind.

[Endsweep24]

This is not even a good try. First you say "And most everyone over there gives Z no chance at all." That is false. A lot of posters on the string give her a very good chance--including a parade of posters right below the string starter. Then there is TGAB's post. He is an employee. Your post was total nonsense and you'll see that if you read the string with your original words in mind.

Obviously your looking for a confrontation does this make you feel better they dont give her much chance at all to win that doesn't mean that she could not hit the board. Alan (TGAB) was just making up a scenerio for the Person that started the thread were she could win that is not the way he really feels about the race, if you would have read on from other post you would have seen that. She would have to run a new top and others would have to regress for her to win on the TG sheets.

[Tread]

Obviously your looking for a confrontation does this make you feel better they dont give her much chance at all to win that doesn't mean that she could not hit the board. Alan (TGAB) was just making up a scenerio for the Person that started the thread were she could win that is not the way he really feels about the race, if you would have read on from other post you would have seen that. She would have to run a new top and others would have to regress for her to win on the TG sheets.

I'd say the only person looking for confrontation here is you. The first 3 responders to that thread disagreed with the premise of the thread title ffs. Please learn how to read.

[Valuist]

While I have criticized Zenyatta's connections for not being more aggressive in her campaign, when I handicap the race, I keep seeing holes in the other contenders:

Quality Road clearly isn't his best at 1 1/4 miles. We know he clearly had issues with the big crowd last year, and Pletcher mysteriously goes into a slump on the "big" race days.

Lookin at Lucky is the one who seems too slow. I do like betting 3 YOs against older, esp on dirt, but he would have to improve a lot. The Maximus horse who just ran 3rd behind him at Hoosier came back to get beat at even money in an Illinois bred stake.

Blame is one we know at least handles the track but that last race didn't make anyone believe he's the next Secretariat. Yes, the pace did hurt him and maybe realistically w/1:13 we shouldn't have expected any closer of a finish. I can use him in P3s or P4s but not with huge confidence.

Haynesfield is in good form and does have a win at 10 furlongs. But I don't see him getting loose w/a 1:13 pace here. The JCGC may have been his signature race.

Espoir City is the most intruiging horse in the field. He's 7 for 7 on dry dirt, and he pounded a pretty good horse in Tizway last year. OK, maybe Tizway didn't ship well, or didn't handle the track. But Espoir was 2-1 while Tizway was over 30-1. I can't believe the morning line on this one.

Its not as if Zenyatta has NEVER run on real dirt. Granted only twice, but she did win both. I can excuse her 95 Beyer in the 2010 Apple Blossom because that's all she needed to do. She showed she was capable of a much bigger fig in the 2008 Apple Blossom. I know some will disagree with this (Jerry Brown and Beyer) but I do believe there are horses who do "just enough" to win. There is no extra money earned for big winning margins. Its not the BCS.

While I'm not singling her in P3s and P4s, IMO she's a more solid favorite than Goldikova and several other Cup day favorites.

[ronsmac]

You measure Zenyatta by her final 1/4 or 5/16ths. She looks like a standout in this race based on that. She should swallow the field up in the last 1/16th.

[bisket]

the best value in this race will be at 30-1.... finshing second and or third

[thaskalos]

the best value in this race will be at 30-1.... finshing second and or thirdWhy?

[FlyinLate]

Why?

Because if they do their show prices will be triple the price of a win ticket on Zenyatta.

[JeremyJet]

Yes, she's fast enough, but it doesn't really matter from a betting standpoint. She should be way overbet.

Regards,

JeremyJet