Zenyatta's Work

[Beachbabe]

Zenyatta couldn't get past her workmate today. Just saw it on HRTV. I think it was a 6 fur work that went in 1:11 +
Do you think there's a possibility that the connections reconsider & scratch her after that ?

[Nikki1997]

The intention was to pass after the wire---I am sure I will get flak for that statement, but that was the intention and the a.m. is not a race .

This was explained on TVG, and you may say TVG is ZTV, but since she pulls herself up on the lead, that was the purpose .

She worked past the wire when Smith moved his hands to ask her to pass El Vino and she cleared him .

El Vino is a maiden that came in at 4 furlongs, after Sorbonne, the other workmate, went off the first 2 furlongs and Z spotted him 10 lengths .

She worked in a canter .

I wouldn't worry about what some--including Donna Brothers--think .

The goal was slow 6f--1:14 or so, and this work sure looked slow, but it wasn't .

The last three furlongs for her were all 11 and change .



MIKKI--and you know it is me, cause I always say so

[Beachbabe]

The intention was to pass after the wire---I am sure I will get flak for that statement, but that was the intention and the a.m. is not a race .

This was explained on TVG, and you may say TVG is ZTV, but since she pulls herself up on the lead, that was the purpose .

She worked past the wire when Smith moved his hands to ask her to pass El Vino and she cleared him .

El Vino is a maiden that came in at 4 furlongs, after Sorbonne, the other workmate, went off the first 2 furlongs and Z spotted him 10 lengths .

She worked in a canter .

I wouldn't worry about what some--including Donna Brothers--think .

The goal was slow 6f--1:14 or so, and this work sure looked slow, but it wasn't .

The last three furlongs for her were all 11 and change .



MIKKI--and you know it is me, cause I always say so


Thanx for clearing up the time of the work. I must have heard the time for the last the last fur. Wasn't paying too much attention till Joanne Jones speculated that Zen's work was "troublesome" to her & may cause the connections to scratch....in her opinion.

[Nikki1997]

Thanx for clearing up the time of the work. I must have heard the time for the last the last fur. Wasn't paying too much attention till Joanne Jones speculated that Zen's work was "troublesome" to her & may cause the connections to scratch....in her opinion.


Truthfully it looked effortless, and I am not assigning " extras " to my opinion .

Last 3/8ths went in 34 and 4/5ths with no pressure...

MIKKI

[cpitt84]

heres her workout:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S33s2KKfQQ

[RXB]

Actually, that was a couple of seconds of her workout plus a bunch of meaningless footage.

[andymays]

heres her workout:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S33s2KKfQQ

I don't see a real workout in that video.

In her previous I thought she looked ordinary.

Zenyatta Workout - Hollywood Park 10/22/10

http://www.drf.com/news/video-zenyattas-friday-workout-hollywood-park

I don't know how anyone can say she looks like a Classic favorite in these workouts. She should be breezing right on by her workmates.

All things considered and after looking at her workouts I think this low priced favorite runs off the board in the Classic. I won't be sad if she makes a fool of me but I'm betting against her. I might use her for fourth in the supers.

[cpitt84]

Yeah, I thought it was her workout. oops!

[andymays]

Yeah, I thought it was her workout. oops!

that's what it says but I didn't see it. It's not your fault it's labeled as a workout.

[cpitt84]

I don't see a real workout in that video.

In her previous I thought she looked ordinary.

Zenyatta Workout - Hollywood Park 10/22/10

http://www.drf.com/news/video-zenyattas-friday-workout-hollywood-park

I don't know how anyone can say she looks like a Classic favorite in these workouts. She should be breezing right on by her workmates.

All things considered and after looking at her workouts I think this low priced favorite runs off the board in the Classic. I won't be sad if she makes a fool of me but I'm betting against her. I might use her for fourth in the supers.

Zenyatta normally does not have excellent workouts. I have to assume that if john said her workout was what they wanted, I can't worry about it.

Zenyatta still has people doubting, even me, but I still think she'll get there before any other horse.

[cpitt84]

that's what it says but I didn't see it. It's not your fault it's labeled as a workout.

Thanks. You're right. :)

[Beachbabe]

The intention was to pass after the wire---I am sure I will get flak for that statement, but that was the intention and the a.m. is not a race .

This was explained on TVG, and you may say TVG is ZTV, but since she pulls herself up on the lead, that was the purpose .

She worked past the wire when Smith moved his hands to ask her to pass El Vino and she cleared him .

El Vino is a maiden that came in at 4 furlongs, after Sorbonne, the other workmate, went off the first 2 furlongs and Z spotted him 10 lengths .

She worked in a canter .

I wouldn't worry about what some--including Donna Brothers--think .

The goal was slow 6f--1:14 or so, and this work sure looked slow, but it wasn't .

The last three furlongs for her were all 11 and change .



MIKKI--and you know it is me, cause I always say so


They still say the workout was 1:11.4 for 6 fur.

[Spendabuck85]

From drf.com:
“Look at her – 1:11 and four,” Smith said. “I thought it was brilliant, better than last year before the Classic.”

Saturday’s workout was Zenyatta’s final major exercise before Saturday’s $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. She won the 2009 running at Santa Anita and will be favored this year. Smith expects a win.

“She’ll be ready to go a mile and a quarter,” Smith said.

http://www.drf.com/news/zenyatta-given-stiff-final-work-company

[Stillriledup]

Zenyatta couldn't get past her workmate today. Just saw it on HRTV. I think it was a 6 fur work that went in 1:11 +
Do you think there's a possibility that the connections reconsider & scratch her after that ?

Wha?

[cj]

I have to assume that if john said her workout was what they wanted, I can't worry about it.



Yes, because he has been so truthful this season. :lol:

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Are there people really worried about her not being at her best, based on this workout? If you ever watch her workout, you should know that they never really ask her to do anything until the very, very end. Sometimes not until after the wire...and its usually a small nudge from Mike to keep her interested.

I think she looks great coming into this race and I'm looking forward to winning more money on her due to people doubting her. Who can you bet on to beat her??? To me, its a complete toss up when choosing between Lucky, Quality Road, Blame and Gio Ponti...I would have know idea who's gonna show up out of those horses and I'd be taking a complete shot in the dark and would be getting "Lucky" if I won anything.

Even with all the hype on Zen, she still might be 5/2 or so because there are people out there like Andymays that will find reasons to bet against her.

[andymays]

Even with all the hype on Zen, she still might be 5/2 or so because there are people out there like Andymays that will find reasons to bet against her.

I have to say that there are so many reasons to bet against her next week I don't know where to start. As I've said before If she wins I will stand up and cheer for her but she will be way overbet and going way up in Class. Two horses she beat won't even be running in the Ladies race the day before and Zenyatta didn't beat either of them under wraps. She wasn't in an all out drive but she didn't win easily either.

Maybe she is really from another world and can overcome all these things but I don't think so. I think she will be less than 2-1 and that makes betting on her crazy in my opinion.

[Tom]

They don't pay off purse money for workouts, not matter what people "want" them to look like. They said before both works what they wanted and she did it, except today. The wanted about 114 - she did faster.

[tucker6]

They don't pay off purse money for workouts, not matter what people "want" them to look like. They said before both works what they wanted and she did it, except today. The wanted about 114 - she did faster.Are you saying that if she loses the BCC, the refrain will be, "her last workout was faster than we wanted. If we could have gotten her to slow down in her workout, who knows what she could have done today ......" ;)

[joanied]

I beleive she's just where they want her right now...but ya know, everyone keeps mentioning Lucky, Blame, GP, QR...but let's not forget there are some others in the Classic that could jump up and surprise...in fact, if not for Zen, I think we maight call this a wide open field...little Musket Man is always right there...I look for First Dude to run really well, and who knows...wouldn't it be something if he uses the Classic for his first Grade I win? Stranger things have happened...it is, after all, a horse race:) ;)

But, I'll be rooting for Zen, and I beleive she's going to pull this off:jump:

[chickenhead]

If Zenyatta is below 2-1, can pretty much dutch the field for a guarenteed profit. Anyone that really doesn't like her here shouldn't have any excuses for not turning a profit. "Zero risk". ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Even with all the hype on Zen, she still might be 5/2 or so because there are people out there like Andymays that will find reasons to bet against her.No, it's because there will be plenty of value elsewhere.

I stand by my line of 8/5-2/1 for Zenyatta's post time odds. I might even have to revise it upward, after seeing the most recent poll on Equibase.

Only 58% out of 2678 votes think she will win. I thought most polls out there had Zenyatta at a much higher chance.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I have to say that there are so many reasons to bet against her next week I don't know where to start. As I've said before If she wins I will stand up and cheer for her but she will be way overbet and going way up in Class. Two horses she beat won't even be running in the Ladies race the day before and Zenyatta didn't beat either of them under wraps. She wasn't in an all out drive but she didn't win easily either.

Maybe she is really from another world and can overcome all these things but I don't think so. I think she will be less than 2-1 and that makes betting on her crazy in my opinion.
There are questions about a lot of horses in this race. The one thing that Zenyatta has going for her over her rivals is that it looks like 1-1/4 miles is her best distance. Quality Road wants a little shorter, as does Haynesfield, Gio Ponti and even Blame. Haynesfield stumbled home in the Jockey Club and Blame couldn't get within 4 lengths of him.

So what would Zenyatta have to be at for you to even bet her? 6-1...7-1?

I would agree with you that if Zen goes off at 6/5, then she's overbet, but I think that anything 2-1 or higher is worth betting. Its pretty tough to bet against a horse who has won 19 in a row and seems to still be in top form. I don't really care about the competition she has beaten because they have all been pretty much paceless races where they have to sprint home, and they've been at a distance that's not her best. The Classic always has a decent amount of pace and that will only help her.

[andymays]

There are questions about a lot of horses in this race. The one thing that Zenyatta has going for her over her rivals is that it looks like 1-1/4 miles is her best distance. Quality Road wants a little shorter, as does Haynesfield, Gio Ponti and even Blame. Haynesfield stumbled home in the Jockey Club and Blame couldn't get within 4 lengths of him.

So what would Zenyatta have to be at for you to even bet her? 6-1...7-1?

I would agree with you that if Zen goes off at 6/5, then she's overbet, but I think that anything 2-1 or higher is worth betting. Its pretty tough to bet against a horse who has won 19 in a row and seems to still be in top form. I don't really care about the competition she has beaten because they have all been pretty much paceless races where they have to sprint home, and they've been at a distance that's not her best. The Classic always has a decent amount of pace and that will only help her.

I just don't know how you reconcile the weak company she's beaten, the raise in class, and the low odds. I see her making a big move and hanging badly in the Classic.

[chickenhead]

The Classic always has a decent amount of pace and that will only help her.

That is a big assumption, no one knows where she'll be placed, or how she'll react to it. The other horses have a lot more experience with the faster pace than she does. She's either going to be further back, or running faster early, than she's used to. If she's really good enough, Mike needs to be certain to give her a chance, which means being certain she gets into the race. Plenty can go wrong for her, even if shes good enough.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

That is a big assumption, no one knows where she'll be placed, or how she'll react to it. The other horses have a lot more experience with the faster pace than she does. She's either going to be further back, or running faster early, than she's used to. If she's really good enough, Mike needs to be certain to give her a chance, which means being certain she gets into the race. Plenty can go wrong for her, even if shes good enough.
If she breaks super slow and goofs around early again like she did in last year's classic, she will have to be much the best to pull it off this year. If they run an average pace and Mike Smith waits too long to push the button, you're right, she can be beaten. If she can get away how she normally does, "a little slow", get an honest pace to run at, and avoid major trouble, she will be picking them all off and I'm not sure any of her rivals can hold her off at the distance. If this were at a 1-1/8, I'd be more afraid of Quality Road, Lucky and the others, but I'm not as afraid of them at this distance.

[tucker6]

If she breaks super slow and goofs around early again like she did in last year's classic, she will have to be much the best to pull it off this year. If they run an average pace and Mike Smith waits too long to push the button, you're right, she can be beaten. If she can get away how she normally does, "a little slow", get an honest pace to run at, and avoid major trouble, she will be picking them all off and I'm not sure any of her rivals can hold her off at the distance. If this were at a 1-1/8, I'd be more afraid of Quality Road, Lucky and the others, but I'm not as afraid of them at this distance.Correct me if I'm wrong, but she's only raced once at 10F, correct??

[Tom]

Yes, just once, and she earned a 156 Beyer.

[tucker6]

Yes, just once, and she earned a 156 Beyer.No wonder she's better than Secretariat. I'm now a believer. Please pass the bread and wine.

[Robert Fischer]

No grown man (or woman for that matter)

no adult horseplayer is going to put any stock in a workeout that went sub 1:12 for 6f and finished 23.60 for last 1/4.

Especially not negative stock.

Now maybe if they have done their work with Zenyatta regarding fanatical workout following(and themselves or their gang, not a service) and find that this workout was a 'stickout' positive or negative.
Otherwise she would would have to have a MAJOR setback or TREMENDOUS work to make any impression whatsoever through the media

[TheGrandDesign]

I just don't know how you reconcile the weak company she's beaten, the raise in class, and the low odds. I see her making a big move and hanging badly in the Classic.
Andy could you have said the same thing last year about the fields she ran against.Same thing was said last year, sherriffs has the same game plan,hes all in and Zenyatta will be at her best come Saturday.I will say this imo the only thing that may beat her is Mike Smith.Jockeys make mistakes in huge races all the time,alot of pressure,Mike will have his hands full,lets hope after the race her fans dont come away saying"SHE WAS MUCH THE BEST BUT......"happens all the time!

[andymays]

Andy could you have said the same thing last year about the fields she ran against.Same thing was said last year, sherriffs has the same game plan,hes all in and Zenyatta will be at her best come Saturday.I will say this imo the only thing that may beat her is Mike Smith.Jockeys make mistakes in huge races all the time,alot of pressure,Mike will have his hands full,lets hope after the race her fans dont come away saying"SHE WAS MUCH THE BEST BUT......"happens all the time!

This year is on the dirt against grade 1 males. Big difference in my opinion.

[gm10]

I don't see a real workout in that video.

In her previous I thought she looked ordinary.

Zenyatta Workout - Hollywood Park 10/22/10

http://www.drf.com/news/video-zenyattas-friday-workout-hollywood-park

I don't know how anyone can say she looks like a Classic favorite in these workouts. She should be breezing right on by her workmates.

All things considered and after looking at her workouts I think this low priced favorite runs off the board in the Classic. I won't be sad if she makes a fool of me but I'm betting against her. I might use her for fourth in the supers.

I thought she looked phenomenal in the video you posted.

[andymays]

I thought she looked phenomenal in the video you posted.

Then you must have really loved the horse that beat her in the workout.

Do you know who that was?

[SharpCat]

I just saw the replay of the workout on HRTV and thougth it looked very good. They were talking to John Sherriffs after the work and he said Zenyatta was coming into the Classic very good. There was quite a crowd to watch Zenyatta work. Zoe Cadman was watching the work with Bob Baffert. After the work and gallop out Baffert said to Cadman "I wish I had not just seen that."

[andymays]

Then you must have really loved the horse that beat her in the workout.

Do you know who that was?

I should have made it clear that I was talking about the workout video in one of my previous posts. I think it was the one before todays.


I just saw todays workout on TVG and thought it was OK. For me she doesn't look like a Classic favorite.

[Tom]

Do you rate sparing before boxing matches?

[andymays]

Do you rate sparing before boxing matches?

Tom, if you're not a workout guy I get it. There's a big difference between sparing before a boxing match and the last couple of workouts before the Classic against the best.

I guess we'll find out who's right in a week. ;)

[andymays]

Well, I guess I'm the only one that didn't think the work was that awesome. TVG just showed it again and they all thought it was super.

[Tom]

I guess when it comes to getting them ready for the big races, I'll defer to Sheriff's plans. I think he might have an idea what he wants to accomplish.

[bisket]

i watch workouts to see things about a horse i'm not familiar with. call me crazy or irrational, but after a horse wins 19 in a row i don't really pay much attention to them. why would i worry if she's in form when even stevie wonder can see the trainer has been pointing to this race since april. the trainer has a history of pointing to a race and his steed running his/her best effort. the toughest shirreffs runner to judge was tiago, and he ran his best effort finishing third a few years back. zenyatta is pretty much a given in this respect.

one point i'd like to make about zenyatta being an underlay is: this is more than likely true as far as the win pools are concerned. when it comes to the exotic pools i don't think this will necessarily be the case. the vast majority of the public that will making zenyatta an underlay in the win pool doesn't bet exotics!! she will probably be heavily played in the exotics, but not anywhere near her odds in the win pool..... just an opinion

[JustRalph]

anybody else think she looks like she has lost weight?

[Beachbabe]

"sparing"....like sparring, only you don't beat the snot out of your sparring partner (or workmate; as it applies to horseracing).

[Nikki1997]

LOL. Bet against this mare next Saturday. I won't, but please be my guest. Please load up against her. This mare is so ready, but, hey, just my opinion.


Nikki

[WinterTriangle]

if you're not a workout guy I get it.

Well, since you are... how 'bout nailing it down for us?

"I didn't think the work was that awesome" and "I just saw todays workout on TVG and thought it was OK" doesn't really tell me much.;)

I watch race replays but not workouts.


I snoozed re-watching Lucky trying to get past horses in the preakness, he was just the best of a bad bunch, IMHO. QR won't be in my trifecta and either will Haynesfield. Haven't decided what to do with Blame yet, but there are other horses I think could be ahead of him, notwithstanding he is horse-for-the-course.

SLOPPY track would change everything though, so I'm not capping it til day of.

[WinterTriangle]

"sparing"....like sparring, only you don't beat the snot out of your sparring partner (or workmate; as it applies to horseracing).

In this economy, sparing would appear to be a 'green' concept........horse for our times would be the "frugal" racehorse. :)

[Robert Fischer]

...she will be way overbet and going way up in Class. Two horses she beat won't even be running in the Ladies race the day before and Zenyatta didn't beat either of them under wraps. She wasn't in an all out drive but she didn't win easily either.

The boxing analogies circulating this thread fit well where some of the prime examples of "styles making the fight" in the Sweet Science, would be illustrations as to why styles and circumstances tell a lot more about ability, than the names and subsequent records of that horse's "company".

I'm sure you know this, and that there are other good reasons to play against Zenyatta if she is underlayed.

[pandy]

Zenyatta is an older horse who knows the difference between the morning and the afternoon, so even though it's fun watching the video of her work, and speculating on it, it actually doesn't mean anything. She doesn't normally work fast. She has won 19 of 19 starts, the chances of her not firing Saturday seem pretty slim. If the track is playing fair and the pace is honest or fast, she will most likely either win or run well and get beat. It's a tough field, even if she is a super horse she can get beat. Secretariat lost 3 races and did not get beat by a top quality horse, he just didn't run that well on the days he lost. Zenyatta is not that type of horse, it's hard to imagine her not running well, but they all can get beat on any given day. The workout is meant to keep her fit and Sheriffs knows exactly what he's doing.

[Nikki1997]

I have to say that there are so many reasons to bet against her next week I don't know where to start. As I've said before If she wins I will stand up and cheer for her but she will be way overbet and going way up in Class. Two horses she beat won't even be running in the Ladies race the day before and Zenyatta didn't beat either of them under wraps. She wasn't in an all out drive but she didn't win easily either.

Maybe she is really from another world and can overcome all these things but I don't think so. I think she will be less than 2-1 and that makes betting on her crazy in my opinion.

Zenyatta is going up in class by being entered in the 2010 BCC? Really?? This mare is going up in CLASS? This is most stupid and ludicrous statement I've ever seen put out on this mare and believe me, I've read some doozies.

LOL. whatever you think. I am adding the video of Z's workout today where Tom Amoss, Ron Ellis and others commented. You might pay attention to what REAL trainers had to say. These guys who see this mare. I realize their opinon doesn't carry as much weight as is what is in your head, but here it is"\\http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6_qq3GIzR0

[andymays]

Zenyatta is going up in class by being entered in the 2010 BCC? Really?? This mare is going up in CLASS? This is most stupid and ludicrous statement I've ever seen put out on this mare and believe me, I've read some doozies.

LOL. whatever you think. I am adding the video of Z's workout today where Tom Amoss, Ron Ellis and others commented. You might pay attention to what REAL trainers had to say. These guys who see this mare. I realize their opinon doesn't carry as much weight as is what is in your head, but here it is"\\http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6_qq3GIzR0

Yes, she's going up in class. Are Rinterval and Switch running in the ladies race the day before? No? Why not?

I think you just made the most stupid and ludicrous statement. If she's not going up in class for the Classic off her races this year then I don't know what you call it.

[WinterTriangle]

It will be fun to use these "Zenyatta is going up in class" and "in against the toughest contenders" if she runs well and the field becomes "a bunch of tomato cans" as a result. ;)

[andymays]

It will be fun to use these "Zenyatta is going up in class" and "in against the toughest contenders" if she runs well and the field becomes "a bunch of tomato cans" as a result. ;)

And if she's a well beaten fourth? What then?

I won't be dissapointed at all if she wins the race but I'm betting against her winning. I've said many times that I will use her for fourth in the supers.

[pandy]

Most professional handicappers, myself included, picked against her last year because she was going up in class. I actually believed she was the best horse but I had trouble with her style, could she could spot ten Grade I winners 20 lengths and still win?

[andymays]

Most professional handicappers, myself included, picked against her last year because she was going up in class. I actually believed she was the best horse but I had trouble with her style, could she could spot ten Grade I winners 20 lengths and still win?

Her style fit on Pro Ride.

[Nikki1997]

And if she's a well beaten fourth? What then?

I won't be dissapointed at all if she wins the race but I'm betting against her winning. I've said many times that I will use her for fourth in the supers.

LOl. Bet all you have against her, Andy. The fact you feel this mare is going up in class is the biggest red flag there is. This mare IS CLASS. The colts in the BCC haven't even begun to approach the class this mare has. Matter of fact, they are so behind her in class it is laughable.

Bet against her big, Andy.

[andymays]

LOl. Bet all you have against her, Andy. The fact you feel this mare is going up in class is the biggest red flag there is. This mare IS CLASS. The colts in the BCC haven't even begun to approach the class this mare has. Matter of fact, they are so behind her in class it is laughable.

Bet against her big, Andy.

I've said I'm betting against her several times on this board.

I'm still interested in your class argument. Have you thought about your statement?

[Nikki1997]

I've said I'm betting against her several times on this board.

I'm still interested in your class argument. Have you thought about your statement?

It's not me that has to think about my statement, it is you who is contending Z is stepping up in class for the BCC.

Your problem, not mine. This mare towers over the colts in class, Andy. She towers over them, period.

If you want me to provide proof to you, I can't. I can't provide you with statistical data or some other sterile information that backs up my opinion.

The mare herself backs up my opnion. That's all I need.

[pandy]

Her style fit on Pro Ride.

Forget about Pro Ride, the key to the race is the pace. She has never come off a sizzling pace. If she gets one on Saturday, she will blow by them like they are tied to a post.

[andymays]

It's not me that has to think about my statement, it is you who is contending Z is stepping up in class for the BCC.

Your problem, not mine. This mare towers over the colts in class, Andy. She towers over them, period.

If you want me to provide proof to you, I can't. I can't provide you with statistical data or some other sterile information that backs up my opinion.

The mare herself backs up my opnion. That's all I need.

Are you asserting that Rinterval and Switch are comparable to the group she's running against in the Classic?

[RXB]

LOl. Bet all you have against her, Andy. The fact you feel this mare is going up in class is the biggest red flag there is.

Bet against her big, Andy.

Somebody must be hacking Nikki's account because look what she said just a few days ago:

I do not get on these threads and berate and make fun of selections that anyone makes.

Nikki's integrity is universally recognized and beyond reproach so I know that she would never say something like that, and then go ahead and contradict it. I must assume that this latest post is the work of an hacker-impostor.

[andymays]

Forget about Pro Ride, the key to the race is the pace. She has never come off a sizzling pace. If she gets one on Saturday, she will blow by them like they are tied to a post.

What do you mean forget about Pro Ride? You just commented on her race last year. You would be the first to imply that there was kind of bias against closers on the Pro Ride.

[Nikki1997]

Are you asserting that Rinterval and Switch are comparable to the group she's running against in the Classic?

And, if you had a clue, you'd figure out that Zenyatta has never been cranked up for any of her races this year. That would take watching and keeping up with her works and paying attention to what was going on with her. I did that. Did you?

Evidently not. You wouldn't put this up if you had any idea what was going on with her.

Rinterval and Switch. What about them? If Zenyatta has been working in 1;13 throughout the year, do you not get that she wasn't cranked? Not even close. Not EVEN CLOSE. But don't let me throw a monkey wrench in your beliefs.


Like I said, bet real big against her. LOL.

[andymays]

And, if you had a clue, you'd figure out that Zenyatta has never been cranked up for any of her races this year. That would take watching and keeping up with her works and paying attention to what was going on with her. I did that. Did you?

Evidently not. You wouldn't put this up if you had any idea what was going on with her.

Rinterval and Switch. What about them? If Zenyatta has been working in 1;13 throughout the year, do you not get that she wasn't cranked? Not even close. Not EVEN CLOSE. But don't let me throw a monkey wrench in your beliefs.

Like I said, bet real big against her. LOL.

You like to get personal don't you Nikki?

Did she beat Rinterval and Switch under wraps?

Yes, I follow what goes on in Southern California very closely thank you.

And for the millionth time I will be betting against her. Why do you keep bringing it up?

[Market Mover]

Does anyone have the stats on Mike Smith at CD? Im not so worried about Zenyatta's late kick being there as I am aboit when Smith is going to let her go. If you go back to Bernardini's premature move in the last CD Classic, you can see what happens when a non-CD jock pushes he button way too early. I think its going to be a slower pace than what is being projected. Haynesfield will be sent and their connections are banking on the tremendous talent of Ramon to harness that speed. I think Quality Road will sit off this pace because Johnny knows he has to save something for the last eighth. When Haynesfield tires, QR will inherit the lead and try to get first run. GoGo will keep Blame wide because we all know Blame wants a target at which to grind away. Zenyatta's kick is more explosive than Blame's. The only way she loses is if Smih pushes the button too early, and she expends that energy too soon. If Smith has a ride on a closer in two-turn racez this week, pay attention to when he starts to move his hands on the far turn. That long CD stretch can be deceiving. He must not move too soon because GoGo will make him pay for it. GoGo will keep Blame wide and to the outside of Zenyatta.

[GMB@BP]

Does anyone have the stats on Mike Smith at CD? Im not so worried about Zenyatta's late kick being there as I am aboit when Smith is going to let her go. If you go back to Bernardini's premature move in the last CD Classic, you can see what happens when a non-CD jock pushes he button way too early. I think its going to be a slower pace than what is being projected. Haynesfield will be sent and their connections are banking on the tremendous talent of Ramon to harness that speed. I think Quality Road will sit off this pace because Johnny knows he has to save something for the last eighth. When Haynesfield tires, QR will inherit the lead and try to get first run. GoGo will keep Blame wide because we all know Blame wants a target at which to grind away. Zenyatta's kick is more explosive than Blame's. The only way she loses is if Smih pushes the button too early, and she expends that energy too soon. If Smith has a ride on a closer in two-turn racez this week, pay attention to when he starts to move his hands on the far turn. That long CD stretch can be deceiving. He must not move too soon because GoGo will make him pay for it. GoGo will keep Blame wide and to the outside of Zenyatta.

Has he ever ridden at CD?

Should they be thinking of a switch to Borel?

[BluegrassProf]

Nikki/Mikki/Snikki:

What's the deal, sweetness? For all the "I totally know horses" stuff you post, why keep up with such a silly combative theme? :D

Zenyatta might be classy as all get-out - but that has NOTHING to do with her step up in class for this BCC. You understand? One has very little to do with the other (and in Zen's case, even less). This is as simple as could possibly be. I'm serious here.

The BCC is a step up in class for Zen. Just because her competition is classier doesn't mean she's any less-so than before.

[how cliche]

I'm quite familiar with the Shireffs workout profile for success which he's put on display in the past with Zenyatta as well as many other graded stakes winners.

Warning: Based on her current tab she's not coming into the cup set to run a new personal best. The tipoff for his runners coming into a distance Grade 1 or 2 typically comes in the second to last workout, most often at 7 furlongs, usually in a time of 1:24 1/5 or faster(See Zenyatta, Life Is Sweet, Giacomo, Stanley Park, etc.)not 1:27 1/5 like she posted a week ago.

I know it's practice & not the game, but there are certain trainers who practice a specific way in order to win the games. Shireffs one of them. Therefore, it's my opinion: She's vulnerable.

[JustRalph]

I say it will be a hot pace that will play well for Z.

As to Smith going too early,, I would think he might go too late. He tends to do that sometimes if memory serves me. In fact I have said it before, sometimes I think he has waited too long in other races with Z and made the races closer than they needed to be. I also think that he has done that on purpose a few times........but who knows.......?

[jjm323]

Seven more days until this irrational bunch of Zealots disappears as she clunks up for 5th and we all cash in on their donations to the parimutual pool.

Something we can all be thankful for.

[jjm323]

Zenyatta is going up in class by being entered in the 2010 BCC? Really?? This mare is going up in CLASS? This is most stupid and ludicrous statement I've ever seen put out on this mare and believe me, I've read some doozies.

LOL. whatever you think. I am adding the video of Z's workout today where Tom Amoss, Ron Ellis and others commented. You might pay attention to what REAL trainers had to say. These guys who see this mare. I realize their opinon doesn't carry as much weight as is what is in your head, but here it is"\\http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6_qq3GIzR0

You don't get dumber than this post.

T minus one week until all of these California housefraus posing as horse racing fans disappear into the woodwork to return to their bottles of gin, "magic wands" and soap operas.

Zenyatta is jumping way up in class. She has never raced on dirt at 10F against open company.

That is why the Brisnet PPs don't even list a "current class" for her.

[pandy]

Does anyone have the stats on Mike Smith at CD? Im not so worried about Zenyatta's late kick being there as I am aboit when Smith is going to let her go. If you go back to Bernardini's premature move in the last CD Classic, you can see what happens when a non-CD jock pushes he button way too early. I think its going to be a slower pace than what is being projected. Haynesfield will be sent and their connections are banking on the tremendous talent of Ramon to harness that speed. I think Quality Road will sit off this pace because Johnny knows he has to save something for the last eighth. When Haynesfield tires, QR will inherit the lead and try to get first run. GoGo will keep Blame wide because we all know Blame wants a target at which to grind away. Zenyatta's kick is more explosive than Blame's. The only way she loses is if Smih pushes the button too early, and she expends that energy too soon. If Smith has a ride on a closer in two-turn racez this week, pay attention to when he starts to move his hands on the far turn. That long CD stretch can be deceiving. He must not move too soon because GoGo will make him pay for it. GoGo will keep Blame wide and to the outside of Zenyatta.

First Dude is quick and can take the lead if they want.

[jjm323]

http://pdfs.thoroughbreddailynews.com/generic_upload/pdf/BreedersCupSaturday2010.pdf

[gm10]

Zenyatta is going up in class by being entered in the 2010 BCC? Really?? This mare is going up in CLASS? This is most stupid and ludicrous statement I've ever seen put out on this mare and believe me, I've read some doozies.

LOL. whatever you think. I am adding the video of Z's workout today where Tom Amoss, Ron Ellis and others commented. You might pay attention to what REAL trainers had to say. These guys who see this mare. I realize their opinon doesn't carry as much weight as is what is in your head, but here it is"\\http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6_qq3GIzR0

Great video. She is looking incredibly strong, when she lengthens her stride, she looks more powerful than I've seen her all year.

[Robert Fischer]

Zenyatta's chances in the 2010 Classic have nearly zero to do with class.

I only say "nearly" to try to be as accurate as possible and allow for something like a 1/300 probability that class will be a major factor in the outcome.

[Robert Fischer]

the actual work itself was worth watching.

This work wasn't completely obvious and offered some challenge, it was somewhat unique in its construction(but nothing new).

The fact that we have such a variety of opinions about the work
from the OP's question of "will she scratch after this[bad]work?"to TVG's "what a pleasure to watch..." praise.

speaks IMO not just to the polari--zation and almost a primitive negative? human quality that Zenyatta seems to bring out where people feel they must form an extreme aggressive stance

and the extremists if not outnumber they almost drown out the 'voices' of the balanced neutral observers watching for the money or the beauty as it unfolds, rather than supporting their extremism by shaping interpretations of what unfolds into "proof".

[classhandicapper]

A few notes:

1. The goal of this workout was for her to have a target the entire length of the stretch and not really ask her until after the wire. Smith asked her a little after the wire and she went past. Her prior work (7F with the same goal) was so identical you can hardly tell them apart.

2. Last year her final work for the Classic was 6F in 111.2. Last week I privately predicted to Nikki1997 that I expected them to try to duplicate that work. Pretty close.

3. IMHO, they have now turned the screws and have her ready.

The rest of it deciding whether you think she's as good on dirt as on synthetics, whether she's as good at 6 as she was at 4 and in the Classic at 5, whether one of the other horses is going to fire a big enough race that no mare that ever lived could beat him, whether the pace be fast enough for such a deep closer, will ground loss be a deciding factor, is the price high enough to bet on her or low enough to bet against her etc....

I have strong views on some of the those things and very little view on others, but I think she's probably sharper now than she was all year because that was the plan all year and they executed it to perfection.

[Tom]

Sorry, Class, I thought that too, but I read somewhere that she should have been blowing by her work mates. Obviously, Sheriffs is clueless on how to train horses.

;)

[PaceAdvantage]

The rest of it deciding whether you think she's as good on dirt as on synthetics, whether she's as good at 6 as she was at 4 and in the Classic at 5, whether one of the other horses is going to fire a big enough race that no mare that ever lived could beat him, whether the pace be fast enough for such a deep closer, will ground loss be a deciding factor, is the price high enough to bet on her or low enough to bet against her etc....I believe she is as good as she was in the Classic at 5. Her numbers coming into this race are comparable at least.

She's had a bit of a habit lately of being an in and outer in terms of figures...running a sub par fig after a decent one. Her last race was a decent one...so that gives me pause, as does the fact that she will be facing the toughest field she has ever faced, simply because unlike last year, these Grade 1 males will all be running on their preferred surface, compared to 2009 when her main competition was composed of turf and dirt runners.

All in all, it just boggles my mind that any handicapper would be willing to take a short price on this mare. She could very well grow wings this coming Saturday and win by six lengths, drawing off as she pleases, but it sure won't be worth the price...we should all agree on that point.

[eastie]

even I agree with that point.

[Grits]

I have strong views on some of the those things and very little view on others, but I think she's probably sharper now than she was all year because that was the plan all year and they executed it to perfection.

One can hope that you're not disappointed, still, what's that long held saying?

"The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

This could not be more true or emphatic than in a horserace. I wish her well and a safe race to all runners.

[Robert Fischer]

Using the commentators - the TVG personalities should probably be listened to a couple times, and muted a couple times. Ignore their subjective(opinion based)commentary, but note and try to make your own comparisons if able. For example when the rabbit goes out to the 3/8ths(i am taking their word for the distance markings- they should be familiar with the track), the announcer says it is some 10lengths - and he is correct. When the 2nd workmate/the 'target' gets moving, the gap is now about 7-8Lengths.
Any physical descriptions should be noted and then "discarded without bias" while you then pause the film and make your own appraisal of that physical description.(for example the post race commentary where the announcer says that "as soon as she got a head in front her ears went up" so you have to 'rewind' and you can see at 1:33/8:21 whether or not this is true- and then you still have the more advanced interpretation as to whether she put her ears up because she knew she 'did her job', or because that was when the rider relaxed and stopped urging.)

On paper the workout was a no-doubter. The time of 1:11.80 was Fast. The final 3 or so fractions were fast, very fast for a 6F work.

watching the workout, there was more subjectivity involved. The crucial part of the wrk to understand was the combination of the challenge involved with the visual interpretation of what happened in the area of the wire.

first the challenge of the work - very challenging work for Zenyatta. In essence they duplicated the Clement Hirsch(in hindsight curious as to how much the CH resembles a carefully constructed zen work, but almost certainly idle thoughts). So yea for all intents and purposes this was a copy of the the heart of the CH. Did it at Hollywood rather than Del Mar, and while Rinterval might possibly be ever slightly better than El Vino(remember, i am comparing the task asked of Rinterval/ElVino in their respective roles as practice-targets for Zenyattas preperations for the BCC, not their total scope of abilities and accomplishments, etc...)... so while El Vino may be slightly worse(or slightly better who knows for sure), El Vino did have a larger head start and didn't have to run 6F before starting her role as target like Rinterval had to. As mentioned the fractions demanded were very fast.

Visually there is some subjectivity involved with how Zenyatta looks near the wire. While she appears to be a superhorse in the pursuit, I am not sure that visually she doesn't hang a little near the wire. It's hard to say because of the huge challenge of the workout. It's possible that she the visual impression was a little unfair because we are expecting the horse to fly past her workmate, but times asked(and performed) are so strong that it was in fact more impressive than it looked visually. Is it possibly to say a "little of both?".
Watching the previous work on 10/22, is also insightful. In that work Zenyatta was not allowed to run through the turn or the top of the stretch. Her target (90%sure it was el vino once again w/out going back) didn't get to have an 7.5L head start, but she got her head in the stretch and was allowed to creep away. Zenyatta was only allowed to run in the shadow of the wire, briefly getting up to speed past the wire. In the 10/22 workout it was very clear that Zenyatta was not supposed to win the race to the wire, and only beyond the wire.
In the recent 10/30 work, it was less clear. Certainly the 10/22 work "bodes well" for Zenyatta in the 10/30 question of when Zenyatta passed her rival, but in my mind there seemed to be some slight visual indication of Zenyatta reaching her peak by mid stretch although she was asked until past the wire.

Anyway thankful that we have these workouts to review as we should, in decent quality, for the big races. :ThmbUp:

-jay

[cj]

I have strong views on some of the those things and very little view on others, but I think she's probably sharper now than she was all year because that was the plan all year and they executed it to perfection.

Enough with the fence straddling, she winning or not?

[thaskalos]

Enough with the fence straddling, she winning or not?She wins it!

The "real" question is...will the winning margin and the clocking of the race be impressive enough to satisfy certain members of this forum...who have appointed themselves custodians of horse racing's "Hall Of Greatness"?

[PaceAdvantage]

She wins it!

The "real" question is...will the winning margin and the clocking of the race be impressive enough to satisfy certain members of this forum...who have appointed themselves custodians of horse racing's "Hall Of Greatness"?The clocking of the race should be impressive enough by default, since she will be meeting the fastest runners she has ever faced on a dirt track. If she beats them, she has to run fast, no?

It's the very nature of racing. Victory goes to the swift. And if you are facing the swiftest available...well then...you connect the dots...

[tucker6]

She wins it!

The "real" question is...will the winning margin and the clocking of the race be impressive enough to satisfy certain members of this forum...who have appointed themselves custodians of horse racing's "Hall Of Greatness"?
you calling me a janitor at the Horse Racing HOF?? :D

[Robert Fischer]

you calling me a janitor at the Horse Racing HOF?? :D:D

[Robert Fischer]

A few notes:

1. The goal of this workout was for her to have a target the entire length of the stretch and not really ask her until after the wire. Smith asked her a little after the wire and she went past. Her prior work (7F with the same goal) was so identical you can hardly tell them apart.

There were some key differences between this work and the one on 22 October 2010. I mention some of them in the long post a couple posts above this ^^^

[thaskalos]

The clocking of the race should be impressive enough by default, since she will be meeting the fastest runners she has ever faced on a dirt track. If she beats them, she has to run fast, no?Not necessarily PA...

Taking the distance of the race into consideration, and also Quality Road's fitness concerns...I predict a fast pace which will likely fall apart in the late going, as the horses venture into uncharted territory.

As noted handicapper/author James Quinn has repeatedly stated...the 1 1/4 mile is a completely different ball game, and speed figures earned at the lesser distances do not apply.

Zenyatta, being the only legitimate 1 1/4 mile horse (IMO), might pick up the "tiring" pieces the same way "Persistently" did in the Personal Ensign this year...and win the Classic in an unimpressive final time.

[gm10]

Not necessarily PA...

Taking the distance of the race into consideration, and also Quality Road's fitness concerns...I predict a fast pace which will likely fall apart in the late going, as the horses venture into uncharted territory.

As noted handicapper/author James Quinn has repeatedly stated...the 1 1/4 mile is a completely different ball game, and speed figures earned at the lesser distances do not apply.

Zenyatta, being the only legitimate 1 1/4 mile horse (IMO), might pick up the "tiring" pieces the same way "Persistently" did in the Personal Ensign this year...and win the Classic in an unimpressive final time.

I agree with that. I'm not saying she's a great bet at 2/1, but I think this is a distinct possibility.

[cj]

I would say the chances of a very fast pace with Zenyatta the favorite in the race are slim.

[garyscpa]

I would say the chances of a very fast pace with Zenyatta the favorite in the race are slim.

So you think the other trainers think Zenyatta is a justifiable favorite?

[thaskalos]

I would say the chances of a very fast pace with Zenyatta the favorite in the race are slim.At 1 1/4 miles, "a very fast pace" is not a necessity - a "pretty fast" one will do...and Zenyatta will go by them as if they were standing still.

[cj]

So you think the other trainers think Zenyatta is a justifiable favorite?

They probably do, yes. Nobody ever accused the trainers or jockeys of being geniuses.

[PaceAdvantage]

Taking the distance of the race into consideration, and also Quality Road's fitness concerns...I predict a fast pace which will likely fall apart in the late going, as the horses venture into uncharted territory. Quality Road has put up quality performances at 10f in the past. No, he hasn't won, but he didn't exactly run like a slouch either.

Haynesfield, no matter what you want to say about him, won at 10f and won easily. His late speed rating of 109, according to CJ, is just about as good as any recent late speed rating Zenyatta has thrown out (again, according to CJ's figs). In fact, the only race where Zenyatta shows a better late speed rating among her last 10 races was last year's BC Classic, where she threw a 110 late number.

Blame is another major player at the distance and his late numbers are also excellent.

People who are fixating on this 10f distance and think that there are no other horses besides Zenyatta who can finish well going that long seem to be missing certain crucial facts.

[cj]

At 1 1/4 miles, "a very fast pace" is not a necessity - a "pretty fast" one will do...and Zenyatta will go by them as if they were standing still.

Either way, I predict it will be moderate at best.

[thaskalos]

Nobody ever accused the trainers or jockeys of being geniuses.Unlike us handicappers...who have the market cornered on "genius." :)

[David-LV]

Thanx for clearing up the time of the work. I must have heard the time for the last the last fur. Wasn't paying too much attention till Joanne Jones speculated that Zen's work was "troublesome" to her & may cause the connections to scratch....in her opinion.

Joanne Jones just like her father don't have a clue as to what they are watching, in a workout, or in a race, they are the inside joke of most handicappers that have knowledge of the game.

Geniuses no chance, result players yes.

________
David-LV

[PaceAdvantage]

Joanne Jones just like her father don't have a clue as to what they are watching, in a workout, or in a race, they are the inside joke of most handicappers that have knowledge of the game.

________
David-LVAs Matt C. likes to say "That was aggressive."

[tucker6]

Zenyatta, being the only legitimate 1 1/4 mile horse (IMO), might pick up the "tiring" pieces the same way "Persistently" did in the Personal Ensign this year...and win the Classic in an unimpressive final time.How is Z the only legitimate 10F horse in this race?? She's only raced once at that distance, and then only on poly.

[cj]

How is Z the only legitimate 10F horse in this race?? She's only raced once at that distance, and then only on poly.

Please, don't let facts get in the way of a good Zenrant.

[thaskalos]

Quality Road has put up quality performances at 10f in the past. No, he hasn't won, but he didn't exactly run like a slouch either.

Haynesfield, no matter what you want to say about him, won at 10f and won easily. His late speed rating of 109, according to CJ, is just about as good as any recent late speed rating Zenyatta has thrown out (again, according to CJ's figs). In fact, the only race where Zenyatta shows a better late speed rating among her last 10 races was last year's BC Classic, where she threw a 110 late number.

Blame is another major player at the distance and his late numbers are also excellent.

People who are fixating on this 10f distance and think that there are no other horses besides Zenyatta who can finish well going that long seem to be missing certain crucial facts.The only reason Haynesfield ran well late in his last race was because he was allowed to set a slow pace, and was never challenged...good luck having that happen again. Every pace handicapper knows that strong front-running "late-pace" figures are seldom duplicated because of the favorable conditions under which they were earned.

I agree about Quality Road's ability at the distance, but his fitness is a concern.

Don't you think that the presence of Quality Road in the race works against Haynesfield, and what he will try to do?

With Quality Road - and the other early speed - in the race, Haynesfield becomes a non-contender for the win.

[gm10]

Quality Road has put up quality performances at 10f in the past. No, he hasn't won, but he didn't exactly run like a slouch either.

Haynesfield, no matter what you want to say about him, won at 10f and won easily. His late speed rating of 109, according to CJ, is just about as good as any recent late speed rating Zenyatta has thrown out (again, according to CJ's figs). In fact, the only race where Zenyatta shows a better late speed rating among her last 10 races was last year's BC Classic, where she threw a 110 late number.

Blame is another major player at the distance and his late numbers are also excellent.

People who are fixating on this 10f distance and think that there are no other horses besides Zenyatta who can finish well going that long seem to be missing certain crucial facts.

His highest ever late number (according to myself) is a 98, which came in a mile optional claimer where he had everything his own way. 98 is very good, but to put it into perspective, the last time Zenyatta only finished as 'low' as 98 was in the Vanity 2008 (again, according to my own figs).

[PhantomOnTour]

How is Z the only legitimate 10F horse in this race?? She's only raced once at that distance, and then only on poly.
Which horses in the Classic are best suited for the 1m1/4 in your opinion?

[thaskalos]

How is Z the only legitimate 10F horse in this race?? She's only raced once at that distance, and then only on poly.Who is the other 1 1/4 mile horse in the race?

Quality Road, who lost twice at the distance to Summer Bird...or Haynesfield, who won his race while on an easy lead in 48.6 1.13.2?

[PhantomOnTour]

As for Haynesfield, he will also see Morning Line up front as well. Heck, Morning Line is a rapidly improving 3yr old who ran a pretty damn good race (and kinda fast too) in the Penn Derby. He may take it to Haynesfield from the bell and will be right with him for at least a 1/2m...probably more.
Haynesfield did have an ultra aggressive work though and looks good.

[tucker6]

Who is the other 1 1/4 mile horse in the race?

Quality Road, who lost twice at the distance to Summer Bird...or Haynesfield, who won his race while on an easy lead in 48.6 1.13.2?Even though he's never won at 10F, I like LAL to be able to get the distance. Whether he wins or not is another matter, but I believe he can and will get the distance. Everyone seems to be overlooking his pedigree.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/october/25/lookin-at-lucky-fires-classic-warning-with-bullet-workout.aspx

[tucker6]

As for Haynesfield, he will also see Morning Line up front as well. Heck, Morning Line is a rapidly improving 3yr old who ran a pretty damn good race (and kinda fast too) in the Penn Derby. He may take it to Haynesfield from the bell and will be right with him for at least a 1/2m...probably more.
Haynesfield did have an ultra aggressive work though and looks good.From workout reports, several horses at least are peaking at this time. Should be a good race with few excuses, as the weather should be okay as well.

[cj]

Even though he's never won at 10F, I like LAL to be able to get the distance. Whether he wins or not is another matter, but I believe he can and will get the distance. Everyone seems to be overlooking his pedigree.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/october/25/lookin-at-lucky-fires-classic-warning-with-bullet-workout.aspx

I guess the Preakness a 1 3/16 doesn't count.

[PhantomOnTour]

[QUOTE=tucker6]Even though he's never won at 10F, I like LAL to be able to get the distance. Whether he wins or not is another matter, but I believe he can and will get the distance. Everyone seems to be overlooking his pedigree.

I like Lucky too and he should get the distance, but he needs to run faster to beat these. I don't have a fig of my own for the Indy Derby (no Hoosier pars) and his Haskell was nice but more improvement is needed. Still, his record and tenacity speak for themselves...without any real trip trouble how can he not be close at the end?

[tucker6]

I guess the Preakness a 1 3/16 doesn't count.It does for me CJ, but after all the endless threads on this subject, I know it won't count for "them". 110 yards is 110 yards I guess.

[PaceAdvantage]

The only reason Haynesfield ran well late in his last race was because he was allowed to set a slow pace, and was never challenged...good luck having that happen again. Every pace handicapper knows that strong front-running "late-pace" figures are seldom duplicated because of the favorable conditions under which they were earned.I'm not debating any of this. What you say is correct.

One could equate the above with Zenyatta facing massively inferior competition all year long and now suddenly being thrown against the best males this country has to offer. That is quite a mountain to overcome as well, don't you think?

So, here you have two horses who enjoyed success while getting it all their own way, coming together this Saturday.

Which one is more likely to reproduce their earlier top efforts? What is the likelihood that we even see a fast pace, given as CJ said, that would only play to the benefit of Zenyatta, the horse ALL THE OTHER JOCKEYS are going to try and BEAT.

Plus we haven't even talked about odds. Zenyatta will no doubt be the betting favorite. What odds do you think Haynesfield will go off? Who will be the better risk vs. reward?

[gm10]

It does for me CJ, but after all the endless threads on this subject, I know it won't count for "them". 110 yards is 110 yards I guess.

It counts alright and therein lies the problem. His finish was moderate in every sense. Visually it wasn't great. The horses he was fighting off weren't great. His late numbers weren't great.
I like Lucky the horse but he still has to prove to me that he's as good over 10 as over 9F.

[garyscpa]

It counts alright and therein lies the problem. His finish was moderate in every sense. Visually it wasn't great. The horses he was fighting off weren't great. His late numbers weren't great.
I like Lucky the horse but he still has to prove to me that he's as good over 10 as over 9F.

Ah, yes, the old "quality of the competition argument." :D

[WinterTriangle]

GL with whatever ticket you construct, Andy. There are a number of ways to try to make $$ on this race.

However, I think if you are going to comment on a workout, saying "it was not awesome" is something I can read on a "pretty pony" board. It's not very insightful. Since you did not reply to my question about what you didn't like specifically, I’ll just ask a question.

Then you must have really loved the horse that beat her in the workout.

Andy, how long is the stretch at Churchill, compared to the stretch at Hollywood?

(Will the horse that beat her in the workout be running at Churchill on Saturday? No.)

Hint hint. Watch the workout again carefully, and try to figure out what is going on.

[tucker6]

Ah, yes, the old "quality of the competition argument." :DHow come he never uses that argument against Zenyatta??

[thaskalos]

What is the likelihood that we even see a fast pace, given as CJ said, that would only play to the benefit of Zenyatta, the horse ALL THE OTHER JOCKEYS are going to try and BEAT.
It is not as simple as that I am afraid...

It's a double-edged sword. If the pace is fast, it sets up the table for Zenyatta. If the pace is slow to moderate...Haynesfield could go gate to wire again...and I don't think the jockeys will allow that to happen either.

All in all, this shapes up as a very interesting race...

[garyscpa]

It is not as simple as that I am afraid...

It's a double-edged sword. If the pace is fast, it sets up the table for Zenyatta. If the pace is slow to moderate...Haynesfield could go gate to wire again...and I don't think the jockeys will allow that to happen either.

All in all, this shapes up as a very interesting race...

So apparently Zenyatta is totally dependent on the pace scenario and can only win if all of the other horses run themselves into the ground.

[MickJ26]

I don't know if anybody else mentioned that if Gio Ponti runs in the turf race, then Haynesfield picks up Ramon Dominguez. Having Dominguez in the saddle is a huge asset.

[thaskalos]

So apparently Zenyatta is totally dependent on the pace scenario and can only win if all of the other horses run themselves into the ground.I would phrase it a little differently...

I would say that the only way Zenyatta could LOSE would be if a horse was allowed to set a leisurely pace - like Hainesfield did in his last race - and I don't think that will happen this Saturday.

[garyscpa]

I would phrase it a little differently...

I would say that the only way Zenyatta could LOSE would be if a horse was allowed to set a leisurely pace - like Hainesfield did in his last race - and I don't think that will happen this Saturday.

So anything quicker than 48 3/5 and 48 1/5 and you're satisfied Z got a sufficent pace to run into?

[pandy]

If all of these horses go, it's hard to imagine anything but a fast pace, most of these trainers/riders let the horse run its race, we all know that strangling a speed horse rarely works.

[andymays]

GL with whatever ticket you construct, Andy. There are a number of ways to try to make $$ on this race.

However, I think if you are going to comment on a workout, saying "it was not awesome" is something I can read on a "pretty pony" board. It's not very insightful. Since you did not reply to my question about what you didn't like specifically, I’ll just ask a question.



Andy, how long is the stretch at Churchill, compared to the stretch at Hollywood?

(Will the horse that beat her in the workout be running at Churchill on Saturday? No.)

Hint hint. Watch the workout again carefully, and try to figure out what is going on.



Thanks for all the hints and the advice. I'll be betting against her on Saturday.

[WinterTriangle]

Everyone seems to be overlooking his pedigree.

Distaff side has always been decidedly problematic, damsire Belong To Me & dam Private Feeling both being sprinters and all.

Despite light stamina on the female side, he's shown athleticism that leads one to believe that his sire side (where the stamina is) may perpetuate over the distaff side.



His 5-gen is missing an element, and that particular element is considered (by some) to be a potent pedigree "influence" (without which only 4 horses in history have won the Classic). I may or may not ding him for that deficiency, and play him in the lower part of my exotics, and move him up if slop.

If you rely on historical trends.....Gulf Coast Farms has produced Ky Derby winner but no BCC winners, but Smart Strike has Curlin and English Channel BCC wins and Baffert has won 7 times.

[WinterTriangle]

I'll be betting against her on Saturday.

That may be lucrative.

Who's the horse you are choosing to win?

[andymays]

That may be lucrative.

Who's the horse you are choosing to win?

I won't know till I download the DRF and see who is going to start in the race.

[AgainstAllOdds]

This thread is hillarious to say the least. My $200.00 is going on Zenyatta to win the Classic with no problem. She has never been better, and she will go out on a winning note. There are no surprises in this race at all. Good luck to those of you betting against her. I just may make some money on this bet.

[andymays]

http://www.drf.com/news/lookin-lucky-ready-breeders%E2%80%99-cup-classic-after-drill

Excerpt:

INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Lookin At Lucky zipped five furlongs in 59.60 seconds at Hollywood Park on Sunday, his final workout before the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

The nation’s leading 3-year-old male, Lookin At Lucky had stablemate Spectacular Slew as a lead horse, a setup similar to works between the horses in recent weeks. Spectacular Slew led by as many as five lengths in Sunday’s work, but Lookin At Lucky, ridden by jockey Martin Garcia, zoomed by him in the stretch and finished in front.
--------------------------------------------

That's kind of what you would have expected the favorite for the Breeders Cup Classic to do. :eek:

[AgainstAllOdds]

Zenyatta has to step up her game from 2009. That's a given, but I think she will pass Lookin At Lucky with about 2 fg. to go. I believe in dreams.

[WinterTriangle]

Andy sees no difference in how a workout would proceed at HOL to prepare for CDX, versus a workout at CDX to prepare for CDX.

Unable to tell us specifically what he didn't like about Zen's workout.

Betting against her, even though he hasn't looked at the PPs yet.


Sounds like a plan based on solid handicapping and observation. I guess it's true, Zenyatta really does make people become irrational. :D

[nijinski]

Andy sees no difference in how a workout would proceed at HOL to prepare for CDX, versus a workout at CDX to prepare for CDX.

Unable to tell us specifically what he didn't like about Zen's workout.

Betting against her, even though he hasn't looked at the PPs yet.


Sounds like a plan based on solid handicapping and observation. I guess it's true, Zenyatta really does make people become irrational. :D
I too wonder why he has not brought her to CD for prepping.

[Charlie D]

The only reason Haynesfield ran well late in his last race was because he was allowed to set a slow pace, and was never challenged...good luck having that happen again. .


So what was the reason for him running well in Suburban where he was Pressing and the pace was not slow??

[SmartyLane]

Andy sees no difference in how a workout would proceed at HOL to prepare for CDX, versus a workout at CDX to prepare for CDX.

Unable to tell us specifically what he didn't like about Zen's workout.

Betting against her, even though he hasn't looked at the PPs yet.


Sounds like a plan based on solid handicapping and observation. I guess it's true, Zenyatta really does make people become irrational. :D

No dog in this fight....but I to wonder how you toss a horse, and then asked who your pick is, say you don't know until the PP's.

Whoever your pick is, I hope they do well.

[cj]

No dog in this fight....but I to wonder how you toss a horse, and then asked who your pick is, say you don't know until the PP's.

Whoever your pick is, I hope they do well.

I would say it is pretty obvious she will be an underlay. For every day races, sure, you probably need to wait. But is that really necessary here? Anyone think she'll offer fair value?

[cj]

I too wonder why he has not brought her to CD for prepping.

They haven't figured out how to leave California yet without crossing those damn Rockies. Booking a cruise around Mexico might be an option.

[nijinski]

They haven't figured out how to leave California yet without crossing those damn Rockies. Booking a cruise around Mexico might be an option.
Ha ha ,if they are using Tex Sutton , they probably have that oversized stall
ready and waiting.Wonder if sge'll get a little Guiness to relax.

[BluegrassProf]

Wonder if she'll get a little Guiness to relax.I dunno about that, but I'm sure John Sheriffs doesn't like being called a "she."

He'll certainly need one or two...




*Edit for spelling ;)

[thaskalos]

So what was the reason for him running well in Suburban where he was Pressing and the pace was not slow??We were talking LATE SPEED Charlie, and PA was making the case for Haynesfield being a threat at 1 1/4 miles because he closed strongly in his last race at the same distance.

In the Suburban, where he didn't have an easy lead, he ran the last 3/8ths in 37.4 and the last 1/8th in 13.2.

Do you think that Haynesfield can press the pace and win Saturday?

[Charlie D]

We were talking LATE SPEED Charlie, and PA was making the case for Haynesfield being a threat at 1 1/4 miles because he closed strongly in his last race at the same distance.

In the Suburban, where he didn't have an easy lead, he ran the last 3/8ths in 37.4 and the last 1/8th in 13.2.

Do you think that Haynesfield can press the pace and win Saturday?


Can't answer that question thaskalos as i've not capped race yet, but don't make the mistake of thinking he has to lead or is a slow ol' boat imho.

[Charlie D]

We were talking LATE SPEED Charlie, and PA was making the case for Haynesfield being a threat at 1 1/4 miles because he closed strongly in his last race at the same distance.

In the Suburban, where he didn't have an easy lead, he ran the last 3/8ths in 37.4 and the last 1/8th in 13.2.



Also, remember horses are not running against the clock, they run against each other and if the race dynamics don't dictate you need to run 11. 12 secs last 1/8ths, then you don't have to.

[thaskalos]

Also, remember horses are not running against the clock, they run against each other and if the race dynamics don't dictate you need to run 11. 12 secs last 1/8ths, then you don't have to.This shapes up to be an interesting race. I don't know what my plays will be, but I can't wait to watch the race unfold.

[nijinski]

Has Zenyatta ever galloped during a frost ?

[Robert Fischer]

Andy sees no difference in how a workout would proceed at HOL to prepare for CDX, versus a workout at CDX to prepare for CDX.

Unable to tell us specifically what he didn't like about Zen's workout.

Betting against her, even though he hasn't looked at the PPs yet.


Sounds like a plan based on solid handicapping and observation. I guess it's true, Zenyatta really does make people become irrational. :D
mays has a talent of being able to get people to listen even when there is no substance. whatever his passion is he makes a masterpiece of it regardless of its truth.


If you actually get to a high level of insight, the internet unfortunately is about 99.99999% shit that is a perverted insight. The people that do get it are apparently very quiet about sharing their insight because it is their livelyhood,
or there are VERY few who really get it ...
there is also a few who either "get it" but have significant social or psychological disorders (rainman and 100 variations), as well as those who "get it" in one area, then manage to overshadow that prowess with being extremely limited in other facets.

Still this being the "funny" game it is, and sure enough, little is as valuable as when someone shares insight with you. We all know the phrase "stand on the shoulders of Giants!" in this game the insights are so rare and great it's like being lifted on the shoulders of a giant , like you would take in your first race on your father's shoulders...

It's weird also where you can feel like sharing insight is scary (although we are usually the same suspects blathering , and seldom listening that a "dangerous" concept would even get loose and breed) but then there are those that can't help but pass on knowledge. Virtue and insight.
and they are like scientists who work with transparency although their rivals copy them.

[gm10]

Distaff side has always been decidedly problematic, damsire Belong To Me & dam Private Feeling both being sprinters and all.

Despite light stamina on the female side, he's shown athleticism that leads one to believe that his sire side (where the stamina is) may perpetuate over the distaff side.



His 5-gen is missing an element, and that particular element is considered (by some) to be a potent pedigree "influence" (without which only 4 horses in history have won the Classic). I may or may not ding him for that deficiency, and play him in the lower part of my exotics, and move him up if slop.

If you rely on historical trends.....Gulf Coast Farms has produced Ky Derby winner but no BCC winners, but Smart Strike has Curlin and English Channel BCC wins and Baffert has won 7 times.

What exact "element" is he missing?

[andymays]

mays has a talent of being able to get people to listen even when there is no substance. whatever his passion is he makes a masterpiece of it regardless of its truth.

If you actually get to a high level of insight, the internet unfortunately is about 99.99999% shit that is a perverted insight. The people that do get it are apparently very quiet about sharing their insight because it is their livelyhood,
or there are VERY few who really get it ...
there is also a few who either "get it" but have significant social or psychological disorders (rainman and 100 variations), as well as those who "get it" in one area, then manage to overshadow that prowess with being extremely limited in other facets.

Still this being the "funny" game it is, and sure enough, little is as valuable as when someone shares insight with you. We all know the phrase "stand on the shoulders of Giants!" in this game the insights are so rare and great it's like being lifted on the shoulders of a giant , like you would take in your first race on your father's shoulders...

It's weird also where you can feel like sharing insight is scary (although we are usually the same suspects blathering , and seldom listening that a "dangerous" concept would even get loose and breed) but then there are those that can't help but pass on knowledge. Virtue and insight.
and they are like scientists who work with transparency although their rivals copy them.

Robert, I was going to ask if you were serious but I know you are and that's what makes your statement all the more embarrassing. Lots of words with little to say makes Robert a very dull poster.

You made the allegations so let's put up some specifics as to what is untrue.

And how exactly does ones opinion fit into what we do here?

Keep the cheap shots coming Robert. :D

[andymays]

No dog in this fight....but I to wonder how you toss a horse, and then asked who your pick is, say you don't know until the PP's.

Whoever your pick is, I hope they do well.

Right now I would say Lookin at Lucky and Blame are better than Zenyatta if the pace is moderate to fast.

[andymays]

mays has a talent of being able to get people to listen even when there is no substance. whatever his passion is he makes a masterpiece of it regardless of its truth.


If you actually get to a high level of insight, the internet unfortunately is about 99.99999% shit that is a perverted insight. The people that do get it are apparently very quiet about sharing their insight because it is their livelyhood,
or there are VERY few who really get it ...
there is also a few who either "get it" but have significant social or psychological disorders (rainman and 100 variations), as well as those who "get it" in one area, then manage to overshadow that prowess with being extremely limited in other facets.

Still this being the "funny" game it is, and sure enough, little is as valuable as when someone shares insight with you. We all know the phrase "stand on the shoulders of Giants!" in this game the insights are so rare and great it's like being lifted on the shoulders of a giant , like you would take in your first race on your father's shoulders...

It's weird also where you can feel like sharing insight is scary (although we are usually the same suspects blathering , and seldom listening that a "dangerous" concept would even get loose and breed) but then there are those that can't help but pass on knowledge. Virtue and insight.
and they are like scientists who work with transparency although their rivals copy them.


Robert, if you want to be a moderator all you have to do it PM the right people. Then you can straighten out all the posters who get you upset.

If you want to be a board cop then you're well on your way Barney. ;)

[FenceBored]

Hint hint. Watch the workout again carefully, and try to figure out what is going on.



It's obvious. Shirreffs is psychologically preparing her for a loss. Why else would he accustom her to the idea of not being in front at the wire?

[dccprez]

1. In the interest of full disclosure; I am a Zen fan - but not a "Zen-fanatic". I would like her to win for posterity...but I am not so certain about spending money on-or-against her. I'll wait for the post-draw and maybe use that as an excuse to bet/not-bet. Either way, I am a "waffle" and I'm OK with that.

2. If I had a vote, I would have voted for Rachel last year. It's HOY not "Llifetime Achievement" (sp?) award. Nuff' said.

3. There was an EXCELLENT seminar at the National Racing Museum and Hall of Fame in Saratoga on Saturday wherein many of the points made by the panel were points that we all already know;
- IF Zen doesn't win and she is beaten by Blame, LAL or QR then she does not deserve HOY. IF she doesn't win and is beaten by a lesser "star", say Haynesfield, et. al. then she probably DOES deserve HOY. (Basically, the panelists - one of whom does have a vote for Eclipse Awards - said that they can't just "rubber stamp" a vote for the Big Girl simply because she hasn't won the HOY yet. She has to prove it on the track. (I couldn't agree more and I suggest that ANY turf writer who has already decided to cast their vote for Zen win-or-lose should have their voting priviliges stripped for a year.)
- Zen is THAT GOOD; The "hype" is well-meant and deserved. She's a true 1-1/4 mile runner and her close calls in these 1-1/16 mile races are to be understandable as she wants longer.
- She SHOULD win the Classic as she is better than the other runners....but NOT by a wide margin.
- LAL appears to be the biggest threat but only by a whisker ahead of Blame. QR doesn't seem to be at his best at 1-1/4 HOWEVER he's still a legitimate threat.
- Fly Down may hold some real value in the exotics AND may be sitting on a "big effort". He's run the distance, has the pedigree and has Zito. So he's got that all going for him.
- Zen is likely BETTER on dirt than on Poly. She simply hasn't had the opportunities to prove it.
- Zen will NOT be scratched unless the track comes up pointed "unsafe".
- Mike Smith is under tremendous pressure.
- Her campaign this year sucked BUT it wasn't the trainer's call. AND the "limited" competition that she's beaten should not be held against her.

So that's the take from "experts". Moving on...

4. I believe that Zen is about-as-good at 6 as she was at 5 - but not quite as good, if only by a short-hair. What she has going for her is the very easy campaign this year so that if she's lost anything it's less than a step - which is most likely good enough to win this Classic.

5. Short of her going 1:16 for 6 furlongs "handily" I am not at all worried about her workouts. And if she went 1:11 and change in her last I don't care that she didn't pass a workmate. Seriously.

6. (This should have been in #3 as it was brought up at the seminar) Morning Line could really have a major impact on the race; he's completely "on the gas", a speedy-type. He could really compromise First Dude, Haynesfield and QR while setting it all up for Zen.

7. Blame is a grinder; he needs first-run on Zen. If he doesn't get it then he doesn't win - she'll run right past him.

8. Zen is an all-time great, and will be in the discussion of top-ten all time (or perhaps top 5). It's hard to not put your money right there....

9. The Conduit-Zen win-parlay last year was $14 and change. Meanwhile the double paid around $22 or so (give-or-take) - some 60% more than the straight parlay. Watch for that in your wagering on Saturday. (Again, I got this from an expert. I'm not smart enough to figure that out on my own...)

I am most likely skipping the Classic and just watching it as a fan. If I have some "found $$" that late in the day I may make a fun-on-fun wager using the 3-year olds with Zen up-and-down with Fly Down and LAL with First Dude in the 2nd and 3rd spots. Again, no science involved, just a "hunch" and playing the "3-YO's get better as the year goes on and they also do well at CD" angle.

[cj]

This whole she is better on dirt and 1 1/16 is too short is a bunch of hogwash. If this were true, wouldn't her connection try to put her in the right spot at least once in her career?

[bks]

cj wrote:
This whole she is better on dirt and 1 1/16 is too short is a bunch of hogwash. If this were true, wouldn't her connection try to put her in the right spot at least once in her career?

She either is or she isnt. Her connections' choices don't necessarily tell the tale.

We've established that they were not primarily concerned with testing her against the best before BC time. Thus, if she was good enough to beat the inferior competition at distances and surfaces not her best, why ship her needlessly? To earn more money?

Sure, she could have battled in the synthetic G1-races for males in Socal at 1 1/4 miles for purses in the $750K range [+-$250K], and I wish she had. But I don't think there was any interest in a difficult campaign that might have compromised her chances in the $5 million Classic. I think there have been exactly three races with $5 million on offer in North America during the last year or so (one was restricted to mares). One of them never materialized, of course, but Zenyatta will have been in the gate for all three. No other horse will have been in the gate for as many as two of them.

So I don't think the money argument wins, either.

[andymays]

She either is or she isnt. Her connections' choices don't necessarily tell the tale.

We've established that they were not primarily concerned with testing her against the best before BC time. Thus, if she was good enough to beat the inferior competition at distances and surfaces not her best, why ship her needlessly? To earn more money?

Sure, she could have battled in the synthetic G1-races for males in Socal at 1 1/4 miles for purses in the $750K range [+-$250K], and I wish she had. But I don't think there was any interest in a difficult campaign that might have compromised her chances in the $5 million Classic. I think there have been exactly three races with $5 million on offer in North America during the last year or so (one was restricted to mares). One of them never materialized, of course, but Zenyatta will have been in the gate for all three. No other horse will have been in the gate for as many as two of them.

So I don't think the money argument wins, either.

She stayed in California for the most part because the connections wanted to keep her record perfect and because the owner is on the board of the CHRB. There is no doubt in my mind that he wanted to keep the money in California racing and help the tracks out here.

[BluegrassProf]

Zen...will be in the discussion of top-ten all time (or perhaps top 5).Fabulous and dancey as she might surely be, I can't help but doubt this point - unless you're talking largely about the casual horsey-heads, which in that case, I wouldn't doubt it. And that's just fine. :ThmbUp:

Fortunately for the extraordinary history and breadth of the game, time has a way of smoothing things out. Even the inimitable Mr. Hovdey-Krone - a guy who we all know has gone COMPLETELY apey for Zen - still retains the slightest bit of perspective (while he's referring to the "best ever" talk a la 60 Minutes, the point stands):
The best horse ever? Impossible. In the game, the question is never taken seriously, posed only to provoke, to entertain, or trotted out by lazy columnists lacking an angle. I'll ask it sometimes of the guys and gals hanging around the tavern, which then gives me the chance to show off how much I know about Gallant Fox, or Discovery, and that usually clears the bar. Best singer of all time is easy (Ella), best town (Mendocino), best movie (Godfather Part II) and best jockey/mother of my child (ummm). But best horse? If they'd have asked, and I'm sure they lost my number, I would have told "60 Minutes" to go back to Lexington and work this way, stopping to kneel at Man o' War, Exterminator, Whirlaway, Citation, Buckpasser, Damascus, the good Doctor F., Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid, and then we can talk about Zenyatta.
Your top-ten list might differ (and with any luck, it does...especially re: Ella, which is a cliche pop answer ;)). But there's an excellent chance that, when you step back from the ridiculous din of the current dialogue and think about it, there are quite a few rattling around in there that'd jump right to the top of that list - during our lifetimes or well before.

If Zen wins on Saturday, it'll be a wonderful thing for her legacy, and she'll stamp her place as a truly great horse of our time. But she's far from the only one, and topping the list she probably isn't (this relatively subjective assessment coming, in my case, from her less-than-compelling career on the track). That takes nothing away from the big girl, and much from her connections for denying that legacy of something grander. But that discussion has been driven into the ground, so I digress.

bks: The BC thing itself wins in large part, along with the record, of course. The increasing perceived weight of a BC win (with the emphasis on "perceived," much-driven by the whole "championship" label being driven down our collective throat) - surface and year-long racing nationwide be damned! - has taken the driver's seat, and racing is that much worse off for it. Horse racing doesn't, and shouldn't, work that way. But hey, that's just me...go figure.

[Charlie D]

She's a true 1-1/4 mile runner and her close calls in these 1-1/16 mile races are to be understandable as she wants longer.


Interesting how the experts can conclude she is a true 10f horses from just one race at that distance against second and third rate Dirt and Turf horses


Also, If memory is not gone altogether, i do believe, Zen did win easily enough over shorter in Ladies Classic and Apple Blossom x2

[dccprez]

Fabulous and dancey as she might surely be, I can't help but doubt this point - unless you're talking largely about the casual horsey-heads, which in that case, I wouldn't doubt it. And that's just fine. :ThmbUp:
.

Let us not think TOO much;

Zen, if she wins, WILL be "in the discussion" of the Best of All Time.

IN the DISCUSSION. That's all. There is no definitive measuring stick for the actual "best" - and all of the "horsey" people know this. It's subjective - and THAT'S COOL!!!

Anyone can be all "snobby" and anyone (with the time) can do the math and subject the rest of us to facts-and-figures...but in the final analysis, amongst the "less horsey" but still "interested masses", Zen (with a win) will always be amongst the discussion of the "best".

I think that the very best thing that the "informed racing fans" can do is to encourage the "casual fans" to get involved, share the debate and not try to "bully" the rest of the "great unwashed" out of ANY discussion involvin Racing. So let her be in the discussion. Take your figures and go make a wager based on your bet info. In the meantime I'll be enjoying cocktails and great fellowship with a lot of "casual fans" who all-of-a-sudden think that Zenyatta is the greatest horse of all time. I suspect that we'll be having a TON of Fun come Saturday; win, lose or break even. And we'll have a lot to talk about!

Best of Luck to All come this Saturday.

[BluegrassProf]

Zen, if she wins, WILL be "in the discussion" of the Best of All Time.Sure: mentioned in the course of discussion, perhaps if we're speaking literally (yup, probably in that ol' beer-and-pizza scenario per Mr. Krone, who nods to history despite falling hard for Zen). And hey, perhaps it's for the best: it'd be an excellent opportunity to broaden the perspective of he who makes the assertion, better-educating him on the incredible history of this truly great game. ;):ThmbUp:

If it's before/during Sat.'s races, I can only hope Goldi's the first step on the way towards broadening that perspective... :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I believe she is as good as she was in the Classic at 5. Her numbers coming into this race are comparable at least.



IMHO, her Beyer numbers are almost irrelevant. They are almost entirely a function of pace due to her running style, the tendency of her opposition to try to back down the pace in an effort to beat her, and the fact that she usually comes home a lot faster late and goes out extremely well. The latter indicates that there is plenty of reserve stamina even when she's forced to hit her best gear late to win etc....

Her two races before last year's Classic were ridiculously slow because of the very slow paces, but it was fairly clear she was still capable of a lot more than that based on her prior races in 2009 and the way she won them. I was not 100% sure she still had a 2008 like peak in her last year and bet against her, but she delivered another peak.

This year there is no such evidence. You can actually point to her closing times being inferior this year when faced with slow paces. I've studied every fraction of every race for hours to try to understand it all. Some of it I understand, but not all of it.

IMHO there are only two real possibilities.

1. She's not as sharp at 6 as she was at 4 or 5. That's something that's very common. There's a very long list of fillies and mares that peaked at age "X" and then slowly declined even though they retained decent form (look no further than Rachel, but the list is gigantic).

2. They purposely have been sending her out at far less than 100%.


Take your pick. I can buy not having her totally cranked too early in the season because of the stated goal, but it's a bit of a stretch for me to think they sent her out well below her best.

To me she's a bet against, but I practically consider it an intrinsically immoral act punishable by a short stay in hell to not root for her even though I intend to bet against her.

If she happens to win, it will be one of the greatest moments in the history of the sport and none of us will ever see another like it because we won't live long enough.

She would have won from 6 1/2F to 10F, Grade 1s on 4 different surfaces (dirt, cushion, poly track, and pro ride), gone 20 for 20 over 3 seasons, won 14 Grade 1 races, 3 Breeder's Cups, 2 Breeder's Cup Classics on two surfaces, and generated enough interest to be on 60 Minutes. That's sick.

[Charlie D]

Just seen Blame on The works (Bootiful looking horse) and he looks ready to rock and roll.

[riskman]

mays has a talent of being able to get people to listen even when there is no substance. whatever his passion is he makes a masterpiece of it regardless of its truth.


If you actually get to a high level of insight, the internet unfortunately is about 99.99999% shit that is a perverted insight. The people that do get it are apparently very quiet about sharing their insight because it is their livelyhood,
or there are VERY few who really get it ...
there is also a few who either "get it" but have significant social or psychological disorders (rainman and 100 variations), as well as those who "get it" in one area, then manage to overshadow that prowess with being extremely limited in other facets.

Still this being the "funny" game it is, and sure enough, little is as valuable as when someone shares insight with you. We all know the phrase "stand on the shoulders of Giants!" in this game the insights are so rare and great it's like being lifted on the shoulders of a giant , like you would take in your first race on your father's shoulders...

It's weird also where you can feel like sharing insight is scary (although we are usually the same suspects blathering , and seldom listening that a "dangerous" concept would even get loose and breed) but then there are those that can't help but pass on knowledge. Virtue and insight.
and they are like scientists who work with transparency although their rivals copy them.

There are a lot of "tells" in this post and I am not even sitting at the table with you. "Rainman" a classic description and one that is truly appropriate in some instances. BTW this is not a criticism --take it any way you want.

[PaceAdvantage]

IMHO, her Beyer numbers are almost irrelevant.I'm not using Beyers.

[joanied]

As if Gomez is the only one that hopes Zen faces her first defeat...there are a dozen other jocks hope the same thing...DUH :bang:

[bks]

andymays wrote:She stayed in California for the most part because the connections wanted to keep her record perfect and because the owner is on the board of the CHRB. There is no doubt in my mind that he wanted to keep the money in California racing and help the tracks out here.

I think we pretty much agree. I don't know anything about her connections' true motivations, but from the outside her campaign looked designed to do at least three things:

1. Allow CA horse racing to benefit as much as possible from her presence;
2. Maximize her chances [within reason] of entering the BC Classic undefeated, ('within reason' meaning entering only G1 races (and their attendant good purses); and
3. Have a fresh horse when the $5 million purse rolls around, as they did last year.

#3, in my view, rules out a campaign that includes running in all three of the G1, 1 1/4 races in CA. Maybe it even rules out running in two of them, if the Big Cap came up too quickly after the BC to have a good prep into her, and if they really didn't want to test her on the Del Mar surface. But she certainly could have run in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

[thaskalos]

I'm not using Beyers.I am getting a little confused here...

I thought that the main gripes against Zenyatta were her "low" Beyers...and the fact that she will be going up in class for her start in this year's Classic. (I know that the surface change is a concern for some...but she has already proven that she can win on dirt with her 2 races at Oaklawn.)

Now I see that some people are saying that they are placing less emphasis on the Beyers...and that Looking At Lucky is looking like a better horse than Zenyatta.

What exactly makes Looking At Lucky so desirable in this race? His epic confrontations against First Dude...or his impressive win last out at HOOSIER PARK...where he "ran against the bias"?

[PaceAdvantage]

I haven't posted about Beyers and Zenyatta for MONTHS...learn to keep up...as far as I was concerned, I didn't need Beyer or any figure to blow holes in the Zenyatta mystique, so I dropped them from by toolbox as far as she was concerned.

However, I did talk about numbers IN THIS THREAD because I am actually starting to handicap the race. And when I posted that I am not using Beyers, it doesn't mean I am not using any sort of number. I happened to be looking at CJ's numbers when I was last posting in this thread about numbers and Zenyatta and Haynesfield and all the rest.

And I also believe I made that clear (I referenced "CJ's figs" more than once in my reply), so I'm not quite sure WHY classhandicapper brought up Beyer in the first place...

[andymays]

I think we pretty much agree. I don't know anything about her connections' true motivations, but from the outside her campaign looked designed to do at least three things:

1. Allow CA horse racing to benefit as much as possible from her presence;
2. Maximize her chances [within reason] of entering the BC Classic undefeated, ('within reason' meaning entering only G1 races (and their attendant good purses); and
3. Have a fresh horse when the $5 million purse rolls around, as they did last year.

#3, in my view, rules out a campaign that includes running in all three of the G1, 1 1/4 races in CA. Maybe it even rules out running in two of them, if the Big Cap came up too quickly after the BC to have a good prep into her, and if they really didn't want to test her on the Del Mar surface. But she certainly could have run in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

Yes, we're on the same page for the most part.

[thaskalos]

I haven't posted about Beyers and Zenyatta for MONTHS...learn to keep up...Sorry...I should have been more diligent. :blush:

[PaceAdvantage]

Sorry...I should have been more diligent. :blush:I'm saddened that nobody noticed...I always have to point it out...

I've been much more focused on the talent and class level of those Zenyatta has been barely beating these days. Don't need Beyer or any other number to point out the obvious.

[thaskalos]

I've been much more focused on the talent and class level of those Zenyatta has been barely beating these days. Don't need Beyer or any other number to point out the obvious.I could not disagree with you even if I wanted too. These are legitimate points against Zenyatta, going into this race...and they worry me too.

[cj]

She would have won from 6 1/2F to 10F, Grade 1s on 4 different surfaces (dirt, cushion, poly track, and pro ride),

Isn't there enough hyperbole already without stretching the surface issue? Do you count every dirt track as a different surface?

[WinterTriangle]

Why else would he accustom her to the idea of not being in front at the wire?

Because the stretch at HOL is not the stretch at CDX.

BTW, the workout reports from Bruno de Juilio differs quite a bit from what is written in this topic. :confused:

I don't put a lot of weight on workouts anyway, as without looking at them in sequence, and understanding what the trainer wanted to accomplish in each, seems to be something that on-lookers can misinterpret.

IN the meantime, since only 4 trainers in this field have ever won a BCC, i'd say the learning curve is gonna be steep for a lot of them.

BCC may be a watch only race, as there doesn't seem there will be much value. Trifecta may be where the $ is, as I see many horses not getting up for 3rd that are "popular" with other bettors.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not using Beyers.

IMO all final time based figures are borderline irrelevant. Some are just worse than others.

The things I am looking at suggest she hasn't been running as well this year as she was in 2008 or even at her best in 2009. When I combine that with the fact that she hasn't been working as well this year either, I feel more confident that she's slipped. I've been saying that about her all year.

That's not to say she in incapable of another peak, wouldn't have demonstrated one if called upon, or hasn't purposely been kept below her best form. It's just to say that she hasn't run as well this year so far. So IMO there is a serious risk she has declined mildly at age 6.

If she has declined I give her very little chance to win.

If she can throw another peak, I feel confident that if the pace is honest/fast, she doesn't lose too much ground, there are no biases, and no one runs a new lifetime top outside her reach, she is better than these horses.

[classhandicapper]

Isn't there enough hyperbole already without stretching the surface issue? Do you count every dirt track as a different surface?

It may be a mild stretch, but each of those surfaces plays differently and has favored different types of horses.

Turfers (including the Euros) have done great on the Pro Ride, but not as well on Cushion etc...

[andymays]

Paulick Report » Blog Archive » Zenyatta Jogs, Leaves for Kentucky at 2 AM

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-jogs-leaves-for-kentucky-at-2-am/

Comment Excerpt:

1. Draynay Says:

November 1st, 2010 at 2:56 pm

I just hope she makes it over the Rockies safely
------------------------------

:lol:

[cj]

Each of those surfaces plays differently and has favored different types of horses.

Turfers (including the Euros) have done great on the Pro Ride, but not as well on Cushion etc...

You could say the same thing about lots of dirt surfaces, but you know that already.

[thaskalos]

If she can throw another peak, I feel confident that if the pace is honest/fast, she doesn't lose too much ground, there are no biases, and no one runs a new lifetime top outside her reach, she is better than these horses.This is not exactly what might be called a ringing endorsement...

[cj]

This is not exactly what might be called a ringing endorsement...

May as well throw in that at least seven others horses fall down or their is an unscheduled solar eclipse.

Honestly, all these words are saying the same thing many of us have for months. She could win, but she'll be a huge underlay.

[classhandicapper]

This is not exactly what might be called a ringing endorsement...

I've never seen a mare that I would make a solid favorite in this field. Saying that she's better than these horses when she's 100% is about as big an endorsement as I can give any mare. But I realize that even if she is/was better than them, it's not by much and one or more could easily move past her. Her style is also a major disadvantage and could easily get her beat even if she's best. Add that to the fact that I think there's a major risk she's not 100% and IMO she's a clear bet against.

[thaskalos]

May as well throw in that at least seven others horses fall down or their is an unscheduled solar eclipse.

Honestly, all these words are saying the same thing many of us have for months. She could win, but she'll be a huge underlay.CJ...would you agree with the opinion that she appears to have regressed a little this year?

IMO...not only do the numbers indicate it...but she is not the same "visually", down the stretch, as she used to be.

She used to catch-up to the leaders in mid-stretch...now, against inferior competition, she barely catches up to them at the wire.

[cj]

Yes, I agree.

[andymays]

I've never seen a mare that I would make a solid favorite in this field. Saying that she's better than these horses when she's 100% is about as big an endorsement as I can give any mare. But I realize that even if she is/was better than them, it's not by much and one or more could easily move past her. Her style is also a major disadvantage and could easily get her beat even if she's best. Add that to the fact that I think there's a major risk she's not 100% and IMO she's a clear bet against.

What makes you think she's not 100%?

[classhandicapper]

May as well throw in that at least seven others horses fall down or their is an unscheduled solar eclipse.

Honestly, all these words are saying the same thing many of us have for months. She could win, but she'll be a huge underlay.

It's not the same thing because I have been saying she's an all time great mare and that I would not favor any mare I have ever seen in the Classic. Many others have been calling her a new version of Pepper's Pride.

[classhandicapper]

You could say the same thing about lots of dirt surfaces, but you know that already.

All dirt tracks are a little different, but those synthetic tracks are often miles apart. The difference between Cushion and Poly Track is sometimes night and day.

[tucker6]

Paulick Report » Blog Archive » Zenyatta Jogs, Leaves for Kentucky at 2 AM

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-jogs-leaves-for-kentucky-at-2-am/

Comment Excerpt:

1. Draynay Says:

November 1st, 2010 at 2:56 pm

I just hope she makes it over the Rockies safely
------------------------------

:lol:
Next Monday cannot come soon enough.

[classhandicapper]

What makes you think she's not 100%?

She has demonstrably been working sub par all year relative to the past (there have been rumors about issues with her hind quarters, but I have no idea how to evaluate that) and her performances this year have been below prior years the way I evaluate them.

I am granting that it's very difficult to measure her ability though. She finishes fast, typically goes out really well, etc... and that makes it hard to tell how much she has in reserve even when she's doing her best late.

But IMO she's not finishing as well off slow paces this year and that's why she has struggled to get up against inferior horses. IMO she was tons the best in those races, but she would have inhaled those horses in the past.

[tucker6]

I've never seen a mare that I would make a solid favorite in this field. Saying that she's better than these horses when she's 100% is about as big an endorsement as I can give any mare. But I realize that even if she is/was better than them, it's not by much and one or more could easily move past her. Her style is also a major disadvantage and could easily get her beat even if she's best. Add that to the fact that I think there's a major risk she's not 100% and IMO she's a clear bet against.After all these months, a coherent and spot-on post about Zenyatta. She is good, but there are major shortcomings/risks in listing her on the top of anyone's ticket.

[andymays]

She has demonstrably been working sub par all year relative to the past (there have been rumors about issues with her hind quarters, but I have no idea how to evaluate that) and her performances this year have been below prior years (the way I evaluate them).

Working subpar? Weaker performances?

That sounds like hate speech to me. :lol:

Just kidding. I agree. It's just that when I say that stuff they try to nuke me.

[tucker6]

It's just that when I say that stuff they try to nuke me.
You have to admit, you are a flame among moths. ;)

[andymays]

You have to admit, you are a flame among moths. ;)

Apparently. :D

[classhandicapper]

Working subpar? Weaker performances?

That sounds like hate speech to me. :lol:

Just kidding. I agree. It's just that when I say that stuff they try to nuke me.

LMAO.

I've tried to be objective and balanced all year. That keeps the nukes to a minimum even though it annoys almost everyone. :lol:

[cj]

All dirt tracks are a little different, but those synthetic tracks are often miles apart. The difference between Cushion and Poly Track is sometimes night and day.

These types of statements are the reason some want to compare her with Pepper's Pride. Of course that is ridiculous, but so is saying she has won on four different surfaces by counting three synthetics as different.

Which days when she raced have the courses been noticeably different from each other? None have been particularly speed favoring, while more than a few have favored off the pace types. There are no night and day cards in her PPs.

[cpitt84]

chat with mike smith on http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/35256/jockey-mike-smith

[classhandicapper]

These types of statements are the reason some want to compare her with Pepper's Pride. Of course that is ridiculous, but so is saying she has won on four different surfaces by counting three synthetics as different.

Which days when she raced have the courses been noticeably different from each other? None have been particularly speed favoring, while more than a few have favored off the pace types. There are no night and day cards in her PPs.

I'm not talking about bias.

I'm talking about a preference for the unique composition of the surface.

In the 2008 and 2009 pseudo BC dirt races I played several Euros because I felt confident that turf horses were going to handle that surface well. Had the races been at Hollywood, I would have tossed them all. There aren't any dirt horses I'm going to toss this year at CD because it's a unique surface relative to other dirt tracks. You can say it's a bit of a stretch to say she handled 4 surfaces because we tend to categorize tracks as turf, dirt or synthetic, but IMO various dirt tracks are way more similar than various synthetic tracks.

[garyscpa]

Paulick Report » Blog Archive » Zenyatta Jogs, Leaves for Kentucky at 2 AM

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-jogs-leaves-for-kentucky-at-2-am/

Comment Excerpt:

1. Draynay Says:

November 1st, 2010 at 2:56 pm

I just hope she makes it over the Rockies safely
------------------------------

:lol:

So Draynay really was CJ. :D

[cj]

So Draynay really was CJ. :D

He just likes my material.

[andymays]

Zenyatta to Receive Private Escort from Airport to Churchill Downs

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-to-receive-private-escort-from-airport-to-churchill-downs/

Excerpt:

Zenyatta will have a two-car sheriff escort to Churchill Downs, where she will be stabled in Barn 41.

[andymays]

That's normal operating procedure for ALL "Queens".

Zenyatta also received a two-car police escort when she shipped to Oaklwan.

Royalty has its privileges...

You're not imagining things. I did switch my post to this thread from the Long Knives thread.

[thaskalos]

Zenyatta to Receive Private Escort from Airport to Churchill Downs

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-to-receive-private-escort-from-airport-to-churchill-downs/

Excerpt:

Zenyatta will have a two-car sheriff escort to Churchill DownsThat's normal operating procedure for ALL "Queens".

Zenyatta also received a two-car police escort when she shipped to Oaklawn.

Royalty has its privileges...

[thaskalos]

You're not imagining things. I did switch my post to this thread from the Long Knives thread. :D I thought I made a mistake, and I erased it from here...

[andymays]

:D I thought I made a mistake, and I erased it from here...

I cracking up out here. My sides hurt. :lol:

[BluegrassProf]

Zenyatta to Receive Private Escort from Airport to Churchill Downs

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-to-receive-private-escort-from-airport-to-churchill-downs/

Excerpt:

Zenyatta will have a two-car sheriff escort to Churchill Downs, where she will be stabled in Barn 41.Gotta love it...it's like 18 feet between the two. :D

Now, if someone could get me a few cruisers to clear my way from downtown, that'd be ace... :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Please don't tell me we are now criticizing the police escort...:faint:

[HuggingTheRail]

Please don't tell me we are now criticizing the police escort...:faint:

'tis okay, the cops were wearing synthetic uniforms... :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

I hope you guys realize that just about anybody can get a police escort. As long as you are willing to pay for it.

Some places call it "special duty" some call it "off duty assignments"

Same way they hire cops for High school football games, and funeral escorts etc. Normally the Funeral Home handles it.....and the athletic director at the high school. I am sure the good folks at Churchill can get any horse they want an escort from the Airport, anytime they want.

[Grits]

Say whatttttttttttttttt! You could spit and hit Churchill from the airport!!

Still, one never knows, there could be a drunk on the expressway.:lol:

[BluegrassProf]

Please don't tell me we are now criticizing the police escort...:faint::D

Not at all...just a humorous nod to my local geography. All in good spirits. ;)

Fortunately there's juuuust enough space between the airport and Churchill that you could squeeze a cruiser in there, so Team Z's in luck...!:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I've had a few police escorts home before.
No big deal.

[depalma113]

Zenyatta to Receive Private Escort from Airport to Churchill Downs

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/zenyatta-to-receive-private-escort-from-airport-to-churchill-downs/

Excerpt:

Zenyatta will have a two-car sheriff escort to Churchill Downs, where she will be stabled in Barn 41.

John Sheriff will drive the Prius and his wife will be behind the wheel of Smart Car.

[cj]

You can say it's a bit of a stretch to say she handled 4 surfaces because we tend to categorize tracks as turf, dirt or synthetic, but IMO various dirt tracks are way more similar than various synthetic tracks.

Again, which days that she ran had tracks that were "night and day"?

[joanied]

Cigar had a police escort too...something they do for a 'king' ;)

[JBmadera]

Say whatttttttttttttttt! You could spit and hit Churchill from the airport!!

Still, one never knows, there could be a drunk on the expressway.:lol:

yeah, and it could be z - one too many stouts on the plane

[andymays]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59635/top-mare-zenyatta-arrives-at-churchill-downs

Excerpt:

Accompanied by a police escort, a van carrying Zenyatta rolled into the stable area of Churchill Downs and stopped at Barn 41 at 12:07 p.m. ET Tuesday, Nov. 2.

Immediately after arriving with the assistance of the police escort that included a helicopter tracking the van, Zenyatta grazed outside the barn for about 10 minutes.

[Tom]

They must have read some posts about her here.....got a little nervous. :rolleyes:

[FenceBored]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59635/top-mare-zenyatta-arrives-at-churchill-downs

Excerpt:

Accompanied by a police escort, a van carrying Zenyatta rolled into the stable area of Churchill Downs and stopped at Barn 41 at 12:07 p.m. ET Tuesday, Nov. 2.

Immediately after arriving with the assistance of the police escort that included a helicopter tracking the van, Zenyatta grazed outside the barn for about 10 minutes.

A helicopter, eh? Hmm, all set for Quality Road I see.

[Grits]

A helicopter, eh? Hmm, all set for Quality Road I see.

Maybe the two of 'em can share a Guinness every afternoon 'round 5 o'clock. They'll both be good to go Saturday.

Still, to be on the safe side, Churchill needs to call local news channels and tell 'em, "ABSOLUTELY NO HELICOPTERS WITHIN A 3 MILE RADIUS."

[joanied]

Man, they better not allow any choppers over head...bet Pletcher will put in a request :D