Handicapping Revelations??

[sq764]

Anyone have a revelation one day out of the blue? Something that just turned your profits from the red to the black??

Oddly enough, I had one a few years back with a really stupid (to some) revelation..

I realized that a lot of my longshot horses were running 2nd and paying double digit payouts for place prices, but I was betting to win. Once I started to bet win/place, I found myself turning things around.

I am sure others have had simple things that woke them up... Just curious...

[SAL]

Mine would be something I learned from Michael Pizzola. That it's better to cash less tickets at big prices than lots of tickets at low prices. Win percentage is not as important to me as it used to be.

[hurrikane]

patience is a virtue all it's own. you could spell it " + ROI".

[GameTheory]

A shift of point of view that was helpful to me:

Do not try to weigh different factors against each other (e.g. does the advantage horse #1 has in department A outweigh the advantage horse #2 has in department B?) -- you will make yourself nuts and it doesn't work. Instead, prioritize factors depending on the context of the race (e.g. Department A is what is important in this race. Department B is only important for breaking ties between two horses that are more or less equally matched in department A.)

Subtle, but a meaningful difference.

[DJofSD]

The folks that don't know do most of the talking. Those that do know hardly ever talk.

True in life and truer when it comes to handicapping.

DJofSD

[pmd62ndst]

I'll try to explain this in an extreme analogy:

I have a match race with Carl Lewis going 100 meters. My trainer is the best and has a 50% win percentage with first time starters. I am drinking a solution that will give me an extra step.
The brand of shoes I'm wearing carry a hefty ROI. Carl Lewis will be carrying a 4 lb backpack. My workouts have shown improving form. The race is being held on the street outside my house where I am undefeated.

Carl Lewis will kick my butt because he is FASTER.

Speed is Speed. All those other factors should provide as a tie-breaker between contenders but never bet solely on their own merits. With all the information and statistics available, it's difficult to remember it's a race.

PMD

[sq764]

But what if 10 of you were racing and you and Carl Lewis were the 2 fastest. 2 scenarios could happen:

1) You could both conserve your energy for too long and wait for each other to move, only to watch some weaker runner win the race before you know it, or

2) One of you would be concerned about the above scenario happening and get burned up by this individual, leaving the door open for the other top runner..

So speed is speed, but there are other factors in the race - the other horses.

[Lefty]

To carry Sq's analagy a little further: What if Carl was 1-1 you were 8/5 and the third fastest guy was 8-1. Hmm, 3rd fastest might benefit from the pace just often enough to be profitable.

[BillW]

Guys,

Pace is not an issue at 100 meters (unless it's me in the race:)).

[Dave Schwartz]

The question:
Handicapping Revelations??

Anyone have a revelation one day out of the blue? Something that just turned your profits from the red to the black??


Yes. I have had that. It came several months ago when I realized what "value" was really all about.

Since then I have become a changed player.

As Benjamin Disraeli said, "A consistent man believes in destiny, a capricous man in chance."

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[pmd62ndst]

You guys are totally missing my point.

Carl Lewis has a severe Speed (and Pace) advantage to me.

I have a better trainer, better shoes and familiar venue but Carl Lewis will still beat me because I'm fat and I run slow.

Whatever Racing Form you use will have information about jockey stats, trainer stats, breeding stats, track stats, surface stats, drug stats, weather stats, post position stats, distance stats, shoe stats, blah blah blah...

The point I was trying to make was in the age of information, don't get caught up in it all and confuse yourself. And if you want to bet me at 99-1 odds versus Carl Lewis, you didn't learn a damn thing.

PMD

[sq764]

I think I am understanding your theory to be that all things considered, the fastest horse should win? Well, we all know that is not true.

I always thought the best horse with the best trip with the best race would win

[Niko]

Dave,
Can you elaborate on your insight into value?
Does it have to do with betting on races with a solid favorite versus the races with a weak or vulnerable favorite?

[Niko]

Dave,
Can you elaborate on your insight into value?
Does it have to do with betting on races with a solid favorite versus the races with a weak or vulnerable favorite?

[Dave Schwartz]

Niko,

The short version:

You have two races, each with 4 contenders.


Race A:
2/1
2/1
3/1
4/1

Race B:
2/1
5/1
8/1
12/1


Which race has more value? Obviously B.

Try grading every race you handicap, from A-F (just like in school) based upon the above criteria. "A" is obviously an "F" race and "B" is obviously an "A" race.

Just look at a few races you have handicapped... you will immediately se that your profit is coming from the A's & B's and that the C-Fs are just dragging you down.

So, what makes a race an "A" race? Well, obviously it is the horses you made as contenders, but it is also the horses you threw out. Imagine that a race with a 2/1 non-contender is a better race to play than one without such a non-contender. (Why? Because the 2/1 nc is putting good money back into the pool for everyone else to win.)


Hope this helps.


Dave

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Originally posted by pmd62ndst
I have a match race with Carl Lewis going 100 meters....
If Carl were entered vs you, I'd call that a suspicious drop...
:D

MP

[Suff]

I lapped him going Two turns and showered, dressed and met him at the finish Line..

[Suff]

.

[Tom]

I owe Michael Pizzola for a mental breakthrough, too-there's another race in 10 minutes. Some win, some don't, so what, NEXT!
I used to agonize over every loss-retool my method and numbers to get that one that got away.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will Carl in 3' of snows. He wears his regular racing "plates". Guess what kind of shoes I get to wear? Snowshoes!

[sq764]

I am still contemplating another revelation… Can we go back and explain the reason for every winner of a race or is there just times where horses win and there is no reasonable explanation?

The short of it being, can we learn from every winner or are there just times where you have to turn the page and not look back?