Stock Market Thoughts

[Rick]

For stock valuation, try the following:

http://www.valuengine.com/servlet/Main

The guy who's modeling this site is based on is Zhiwu Chen and you should read all of his papers. Here's a link to his site:

http://www.som.yale.edu/faculty/zc25/

He has some interesting insights on why the stock market may go up in the future and housing may go down just based on demographics alone.

Another guy worth following is here, mostly for short-term predictions:

http://www.zacks.com

And, I like these sites for some decent predictions about how the overall market will do it the next few days:

http://home.flash.net/~hesler/sandp.htm

http://www.coe.uncc.edu/~hphillip/fu1htm.html


I hope this will be helpful to anyone who's interested. I'm sure others will have their own list of useful resources and post some of them here.

[Rick]

Some more useful information:

http://parkercenter.johnson.cornell.edu/research_highlights_dow30.htm

BTW, don't be scared off by the math in any of the technical papers. If you don't have the background to follow it, just read the conclusions. It's been reviewed by many others and verified anyway.

[so.cal.fan]

Thanks for the links, Rick.
As you know, I lost my shirt in the 2000 crash.....and have been saving cash since.......really afraid to jump back in.
However, I must move forward, take some action.
I just want to let you know that I am really CONSERVATIVE about investments...........I am sure even LEFTY is to the left of me in this area.....LOL
I'll check this stuff out.......
Interesting stuff......however.....I will not understand the math, so thanks for tipping me off.....I won't even bother to try!:)

[Rick]

socal,

It just occurred to me that it might be a lot more useful to do a search on some of these names or terms or companies and read what the financial media has written about them. A capsule summary is all that you really need anyway. It's more important to know who to listen to than it is to know all of the details, but I feel much more comfortable when I have and understanding of the general approach and confidence in it's effectiveness.

[so.cal.fan]

Exactly, Rick
I made the mistake of being uninformed in 1999. I fell for tout newsletters that offered very poor advise, I feel like such a fool, because I know better in regards to horses.......I never fall for touts, etc.
Live and learn.......I'm not going to look backward........what's done is done.
I just want to be more informed next time I make an investment.
I know you and others on board here do pay more than a little attention to the market.........most of us have some money to invest and we all want to make good choices.....they are different for everyone, but just like our bets on horses.... we have to feel comfortable with what we are doing.
I listen to that lady on CNBC.....Suze Orman, she seems to give good advise to people, general information.....but sensible.

[Rick]

socal,

We get Bloomberg here in the mornings on cable and it's pretty good for general market news since it's more financially oriented than news oriented. But, the media in general isn't a very good source of information about how to find good investments. Too many people follow it too closely, which tends to diminish the value of any good information. It's the same general idea as in horse racing. You want significant information but you don't want everyone in the world to be following it. What I'm paying attention to now is pretty new. Five years from now it'll probably be in every Finance textbook and worth a lot less for getting an edge. Fortunately there's still a lot of superstition out there in the form of technical analysis (reading tea leaves) and following of indicators that worked in the past but don't work recently.

[Suff]

I'm taking small flyers with playboy . I'm in at 12 mostly, and 13 for some..a little at 14.

Despite major Capital expenditures they showed a Profit in thier on-line division of $600,000. Now with the seed investments made...Their on-line division is expected to throw off big profits this year...

But thats not my main play here.. Its Hefners impending death.

The Brand name has the Power of a Ford or GM...But he's not captialized on that in recent times.....

His Daughter,,,and the eventual Buyer (someone from Big-media) will completely maximize revenue opportunities like a Publicly traded company should.

After Hefners Death... they'll be a HOT Commodity. The money that can be made on Brand awareness alone should quadruple the Profits. I hope. I lost 15% on my retirement account...and 18% on my annuity last year. Took a bad beating.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/company/3495.asp?Printer

[Rick]

Sufferin,

Interesting analysis, but are you prepared to wait 5 years or more for that to happen? They're near-term outlook doesn't look too good and some others in the same business are having a tough time. On the other hand, it probably won't be on anyone's list of "Christian" stocks to hold, so that alone should be a plus. Just keep in mind that average age is going up and that might not be helpful to their customer base.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Rick
Sufferin,

Interesting analysis, but are you prepared to wait 5 years or more for that to happen?

I hope not.... Because I havehim bet in some "death pools" as well.

I'm hunching he drops dead in a Bubble bath 2004.

I know people who lived hard like he has...they think they're getting away with something. Then wammo... He's not coming downstairs for breakfast. Accounts Payable called...

I'm a "seat of my pants" type... your polar opposite. Same with my Horse play. I'm active on PA' board with a HIGH % of players that Bet based on Predictable outcomes based on what 100's of thousands of examples show them to be predictable.

Yet...I use my BBW philisophy. I enjoy what you post and read it and like the replies...I can interact with people who do things like you because I do have an anylitical side.

But I'm more of an artist...or idiot...

[Rick]

Sufferin,

Hey, could be some interesting shareholder meetings at the mansion I suppose. I've always thought Hefner was one of the biggest geeks of all time though. How old is the geezer now anyway?

[Suff]

April, 1926. 77 Plus he announced he was looking for a Publisher to write his Memoir's for. Thats The Kiss of Death.

[Rick]

Sufferin,

Hefner never seemed to me to be a happy guy, just one pretending to be happy and hoping that the rest of us were envious. But that seems to be true of a lot of rich people though.

I don't think what sells these days is anything like what Playboy does though. I'll bet that "The Man Show" made more money in the last few years than anything Playboy has done.

[Rick]

Here's another site I like with a lot of stuff in one place:

http://www.investorhome.com/toc.htm

There's something for everyone here and more information about what works in the market than in a library of books.

[LurkingBettor]

For those who believe in Hefner's soon-to-be demise (and, yes, I was/am one of them):

I have a 1978 Bally Playboy pinball machine for sale. The one with Hef and the playmates on the backglass that does wolf whistles at times. Pristine condition, but, gathering dust in the garage.

I bought it in 1998 thinking the same thing that Suff is thinking. Unfortunately, Hef outlived my need for the money tied up in the machine. Should be a collector's item once he passes!

Please PM if interested or need further info.

Regards,
LB
:cool:

[Dave Schwartz]

Rick,

Wow! What a link. Thanks.

Dave

[Tuffmug]

U.S. economy going the way Argentina did. Deficit exploding ( thanks GWB!) and foreigners will soon stop lending us money by buying our bonds. Interest rates will explode, real estate bubble will burst, bankruptcies will soar, and Dow will be cut in half over the next 2-3 years. Fed has shot their wad and have no spunk left. Stay in cash or hard assets.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tuffmug
U.S. economy going the way Argentina did. Deficit exploding ( thanks GWB!) and foreigners will soon stop lending us money by buying our bonds. Interest rates will explode, real estate bubble will burst, bankruptcies will soar, and Dow will be cut in half over the next 2-3 years. Fed has shot their wad and have no spunk left. Stay in cash or hard assets.

The Sky is Falling too...............

[Suff]

Playboy sniffed at $16.00 Today. Closed at 15.49. 15.78 was daily high. Lightly traded at 37K

Nov 5th 3Q earnings release and conference call is scheduled. I'm liking my chances for a good bounce ..and perhaps some air under this price.

I'm ready to 3/4's unload at 18.00. If I think I can smell 20.00 I'll hold and unload 50% at 20.00.