BETTING AGAINGST BRIDGEJUMPERS

[teddy]

I Was wondering if anyone with a data base could pull all the races where the fav had 80% of the show money and see what the return is on the second favorite to show. Or horses from 8 to one to 15 to one. Or horses with the best closing fraction or second best closing fraction if the fav is the best closer.

With so many horses running out now it seems like there is a better edge against these horses.

[Robert Fischer]

this is how i make my livelyhood, hold on while i copy the step-by-step instructions on to a message board...

[teddy]

If i made my living on this I would definitely not tell everyone.... also...you might as well have said there is a profit there. Now the miners have their lights on and away we go.

[Robert Fischer]

^^kidding , actually i apologize for the sarcasm, because ANY questions by a player can be a good thing.

the problem with your mechanical question is that you don't have any edge involved with the questioning.

here you do a good job:
"Or horses with the best closing fraction or second best closing fraction if the fav is the best closer."

if you add to that query the following condition: "when at that specific distance, the track is favoring closers"
then you start to get something that at least has potential.

better yet something like : "Or horses with the best opening fraction if the fav is a closer." ++ "when at that specific distance, the track is favoring early speed"


the concept behind this advice is that the value comes from the forces such as bias (see how the above conditions were structured), but any temp-positive ROIs tend to self adjust and any negative ROIs tend to stay consistent when Mechanical odds-based things are either used or opposed by a player. You can find bias in several places at a track, in the trainers, even in the public opinion of popular horses(the very best kind).
When you lack the insight of what(if any(and often there is none)) bias is being abused by a bridge jumper, then you are in reality playing against the mathematical odds. Knowing this by itself can at least allow for a player to be honest with themselves. Gambling or bucking odds isn't a sin, it's a choice. So is putting in the work. All the different choices have pros n cons. I want to keep it simple, general and wrap this up, but felt i may as well contribute for being a smart ass good luck.

and maybe someone will surprise and post some good info on the mechanical opposition of bridge jumpers:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Robert Goren]

I have no doubt that there are people out there who pretty much just bet this. The problem is the waiting for it to happen. Staring at tote boards for days on end without making a bet is something not many horse players can do. I think someone set up a twitter account just to alert PA members when it happens. I do not know if it is still active.

[cj's dad]

On BC weekend my eyes will be focused on the show pools in each and every race. I will have my alterneat show wager set and ready to hit the send button if and when a huge amount rolls in at the last minute and if it shows up quickly enough on TVG's pool monitoring section.

[teddy]

I agree using things the public does not have handy is a a huge adv. Downloading all the bias per distance is possible with my software. Would take alot of work but its an edge. Except at MTN where bias changes nightly.

I am thinking the edge is just a flat bet against and would like to get an idea if the best , agianst wager is on the second or third fav. Or the opposite running style of the cinch horse.

[lamboguy]

lets get this straight now. the same people bridgejump every race all over the country, the tracks cut out show pools and those that bridgejump must have unlimited funds because as you guys say this is a terrible bet.

[woodtoo]

My take on bridgejumping is, if I think there's a fair chance he/she will run out
of the money....bet the rest to show.Finding these is rare for me.

[teddy]

I see them getting busted by trainers more than by bad circumstances.

[lamboguy]

just keep betting against the bridgejumpers and everyone will all be rich along with analyst richard perloff TVG aka betfair

[Stillriledup]

Two BJ's took a bath today, one at FG race 4 and the other in the finale at GG.

[therussmeister]

My take on bridge jumping is I bet against bridge jumpers every time I see it regardless of whether I think they will be out of the money. I bet one horse. I think I've been influenced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb's books. I'm not sure I would have come up with this idea of always betting against bridge jumpers if I wasn't familiar with Taleb's work.

I've only had this policy for about one month, and have hit for $14 at Laurel and today's Fairgrounds race for $26.60. I never thought today's favorite would be out of the money, and would not have bet against it two months ago. I have yet to lose a bet and received as much as $3.00 on a race the bridge jumper won.

[Coleman]

189,000 out of a 221,000 show poll at Santa Anita just got sucked down the drain by Tapizar.

[Stillriledup]

189,000 out of a 221,000 show poll at Santa Anita just got sucked down the drain by Tapizar.

Too many people bet against him to show, the winner only paid 15 or something like that.

[Coleman]

Too many people bet against him to show, the winner only paid 15 or something like that.

18.60 8.00 15.60

And for the California bridgejumper double, Comma To the Top finished out in the El Camino Real, with similar show payouts, winner was
15.00 4.80 12.00

[Stillriledup]

Game on Dude and some Christmas horse at Monmouth had huge show bets today, both ran subpar and held third barely. If Theskysthelimit actually had any kind of run today, GOD is off the board and if the Shannon Uske horse had any kind of run at Monmouth today, Christmas would have come early.

Bad show bets both 'survived' by the skin of their teeth today. But, i have no doubt that those people who made those show bets will eventually make a mistake...and guess who's going to pounce on their error when they do? :cool: