Place betting on Probable Faves

[Ray2000]

Sunday's results
CHST..2..5..Or-7/2....................won $3.40 $3.20
CHST..11.7..Transcending-4/1.........won $18.60 $9.80
CHST..12.1..Native Doll-5/2...............place $2.40
CNL...7..2..Snows Bangert Boy-6/1.........place $7.00
FLMD..4..1..Bumpsandbruises-3/1.......won $9.70 $3.40
HAR...3..2..Catchmecullen A-5/2.......won $3.20 $2.60
HAR...5..8..Chilli Nz-3/1.............show
HAR...6..5..Enee Weenie And Me-2/1....won $4.40 $2.40
HAR..12..3..Richard Henry N-3/1...........place $2.60
RIDC..2..2..Ardyne Ace-4/1............won $5.30 $2.30
RIDC..11.3..Isnt He Lucky-2/1.............place $2.20
SCAR..2..5..Wall Street Wally-9/2.....show
SCAR..6..5..Simka-6/1.................otb
SCAR..11.4..Light Iron-7/2............won $6.20 $4.20
STGA..3..5..Diana Hall-3/1............won $3.30 $2.30
STGA..9..3..Semjac Legacy-9/5.........won $3.90 $2.50
STGA..12.3..Roxies Big Guy-2/1........won $2.50 $2.20
WR....7..3..Artashack-9/5.............won $2.70 $2.20
WR....8..2..Bay Lane-3/1..............won $4.60 $2.90
WR....9..1..Dontpassdamustard-2/1.....won $3.30 $2.40


$40 Wagered to Win or Place
17 of 20 (85%) Placed, Returning $56.60, net +$16.60 (42%)
13 of 20 (65%) Won, Returning $71.10, net +$31.10 (78%)

Once again Win betting is better. Robot's on hot streak with faves let's roll..

Computer's "Heavy Faves" Place bets for Monday

BANG 4 4 Newstop-5/2
BANG 5 4 Nordik Fever-5/2
BANG 7 4 Cosmattics-7/2
BANG 9 2 For Now-5/2
GRVR 10 2 Up Front Ben-7/2
GRVR 12 1 Fight Night-2/1
HAR 8 1 Solano-2/1
HAR 13 5 Polaris N-3/1
LON 1 4 Amchabec-4/1
LON 3 3 Young Spirit-5/1
LON 5 4 Dashing Earl-2/1
LON 9 1 Priceless Edition-6/5
LON 12 2 Weird Albert-5/2
MEA 4 2 Doc's Yankee-7/2
MEA 11 8 Justice Cam-4/1
MEA 14 1 Osborne's Yankee-12/1
MR 3 2 I C Linda-5/2
MR 9 6 Allikait Fighter-5/2
PPK 4 9 Up Front Rudy-5/1
WDB 6 2 Smarter Yet-8/1
WDB 10 10 Dontdragmeshoppin-10/1
YR 1 1 Jj's Foxyexpress-3/1
YR 3 3 Jovial Mike-3/1
YR 5 7 Bullee N-9/5
YR 7 5 R C Cruiser-4/1
YR 9 1 Johnny Walker-3/1

[Ray2000]

Mondays results on $50 bet (1 scratch)

Win Back $27.60 ($22.40) -45%
Place back $39.40 ($10.60) -21%

That's more like it :D

Track this Experiment for a while...


Tuesdays Plays
Track R# H#
BANG 10 8 R Rs Wanderer-7/1
BTVA 1 2 Pompous Pleasure-5/2
BTVA 9 4 Nitroglycerine-5/2
BTVA 12 5 Well Bet-5/2
GEOD 3 5 Maple Leaf Quix-8/5
GEOD 8 2 Greek Island-9/5
GEOD 12 4 Yankee Allstar-5/2
HAR 4 3 Itz Cherry Ripe N-3/1
HAR 5 2 World Fame-7/2
HAR 9 5 Fox Valley Barzgar-2/1
HAR 12 1 White Diamonds-4/1
HAR 14 3 Fussy's Bad-5/2
HAR 15 5 Bestnotgetinmyway-4/1
KD 11 3 Bale Me Out-5/2
LON 1 2 Northern Fling-6/5
LON 2 8 Daylon Diva-8/5
MEA 1 4 Wen-mar's Chip-6/1
MEA 3 1 Make It Matter-5/2
MR 2 3 Rip Rockin Raider-5/2
MR 8 5 Seawind Dropper-8/1
PCD 4 8 Glors Boys-3/1
PCD 9 7 Grain Of Truth-5/2
PCD 11 6 Mystery Island-3/1
PRC 1 3 Iroquoindianbrave-4/1
PRC 6 4 Steady's Bad Boy-8/1
WR 6 3 Premier Elecktrah-3/1
WR 7 8 Holiday Shopper-4/1
WR 9 3 My Cowgirl-3/1
YR 3 5 Clos Pegase-3/1

[Ray2000]

Tuesday...$58 bet, Place bets broke even, Win bets lost 10


Totals to date...
$Bet Win P/L ROI Place P/L Roi
$236.00 $21.00 8.9% $19.30 8.2%


Wed, 10/27 picks on faves
Track Race # Name
BTVA 10 6 K F B Espada-4/1
BTVA 11 1 Space Chalet-5/2
BTVA 12 6 Nuclear Cam-5/1
CHST 6 3 Soul Chaser-2/1
CHST 8 4 Sleek Hunter-9/2
CHST 10 5 R-valerie-5/1
CNL 2 9 Ernest Prayer-6/1
CNL 4 10 Andi Rose-7/2
FHLD 3 1 Marion Mistletoe-5/1
FLMD 1 5 Typecast-8/1
FLMD 4 3 Boy In A Bubble-7/2
FLMD 8 5 Foxys Desire-5/2
FLMD 11 8 Mcmaverick-8/1
HAR 1 1 Street Dreams-5/2
HAR 10 3 Play For Real-4/1
HAR 14 2 Hacks Last-6/1
INDY 2 7 A Golden Rose-3/1
INDY 8 9 Destiny Cruise-4/1
INDY 9 7 Abc Mercedes-2/1
MR 4 6 Jk Diamondnpearls-3/1
MR 12 5 Keystone Howie-3/1
PCD 4 4 Sarah's Creek-5/1
PCD 11 4 Indulge Me-3/1
PCD 12 1 Go Go Raider-7/2
PPK 1 7 Andover America-5/2
PPK 2 6 Deliberate-3/1
PPK 4 1 Sign Of Delight-5/2
WR 6 9 Bryndans Toy-4/1
WR 11 3 Devils Magic-3/1

[Ray2000]

Wednesday 1 Scratch
$Bet Win P/L ROI Place P/L Roi
$56.00 $15.10 27% $2.60 5.0%

Totals to date...
$Bet Win P/L ROI Place P/L Roi
$292.00 $36.10 12.4% $21.90 7.5%

'puter has 6 w/ high Morning Lines so I checked them out

CALX 6 1 Hope Tu Place-6/5
CALX 8 4 Sad Parting-2/1
CALX 10 3 Cherry Tree Nicole-9/5
CHST 5 5 Stagecoach Holdup-7/2
CHST 6 4 Dragon Woman-5/2
CHST 9 3 Bling-5/1
CHST 10 8 One Man Show S-8/1 Always close 52%ITM, has gate speed
FHLD 2 3 Kid Ruckus-7/2
FHLD 4 4 Mckenzies Treasure-7/2
FHLD 9 3 Calypso Fun-5/1
HAR 5 3 Highlyquestionable-7/2
HAR 7 2 Elizabeth Ann-3/1
HAR 8 7 Power N Glory-10/1 Best personal time in last 7, improving
HAR 13 1 Badlands Power-5/2
MAY 6 9 My Kind Of Towne-9/2
MR 1 4 Jd's Tycoon-10/1 2nd start back after scr sick, gets Aldrich
MR 13 6 Tylers Rendevous-3/1
NOR 3 3 Rusty Water-3/1
NOR 9 7 Keyodee Star-5/2
PRC 6 3 Dragon Can Do-3/1
RIDC 5 7 Coast Highway-2/1
RIDC 8 6 Chip Dot Com-2/1
RIDC 14 4 Most Notable Lindy-3/1
RIDC 15 5 Casimir Intogo-2/1
VD 3 4 Neon Dream-5/2
VD 4 1 Prettyasapageant-7/2
VD 6 7 Our Christie Lee N-8/1 Bad ML always close, best TM speed
WDB 4 10 Beer League-8/1 3 yo new LTM can leave but post will hurt
YR 7 7 Chesca Girl-12/1 Nice win at 13/1
YR 10 1 Wish All You Want-6/5

[Ray2000]

On $60 bet... Win betting made $6 Place bets lost $6

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L..ROI.......Place P/L..Roi
$352....$42.20...12.0%.....$16.00.....4.5%

Win betting still outdoing Place betting on Low Price Horses

Friday always has a ton of bets....Here goes a C-note+2

Batavia R4..........2 Red On A Rose-5/2
Batavia R6..........7 Iseerightthrough U-6/1
Cal Expo R1.........4 Broadway Victory-6/5
Cal Expo R6.........2 Cafe Art-3/1
Cal Expo R13........5 Anelectricmachine-5/2
Chester R3..........3 Mcgibson-2/1
Chester R5..........5 Tv Mom-5/2
Chester R6..........6 Mypanmar-2/1
Chester R9..........4 Doubleshotascotch-5/2
Chester R11.........7 Riley Character-9/2
Freehold R1.........1 Diva La Dragon-3/1
Freehold R2.........5 Four Starz Roe-3/1
Flamboro R7.........7 King Oliver-5/2
Georgian R6.........5 Whycantiforgetyou-7/2
Western Fair R8.....5 Firstline Precious-12/1
Western Fair R11....3 Loverboynik-6/5
Maywood R1..........2 Fox Valley See Ya-8/1
Maywood R4..........1 Weekend Update-2/1
Maywood R8..........5 Look Yankee-9/2
Meadows R3..........6 First Fancy-5/2
Meadows R5..........6 Joltin' Colt-6/1
Meadows R11.........8 Master N D Skies-12/1
Meadows R13.........2 Economize-3/1
Northfield R2.......4 Bytemetoni-7/5
Northfield R7.......7 Eyeseefame-2/1
Northfield R11......4 Sassy Marvel-15/1
Northfield R14......3 Im A Sally Sue-3/1
Northville R2.......1 Briar Key-5/2
Northville R10......2 Lock Up's Galley-10/1
Pocono R7...........5 Dr Nabrinsky-9/2
Rideau-Carleton R10.5 Gracie Montana-2/1
Rideau-Carleton R12.1 Brittle Truth-2/1
Rideau-Carleton R13.6 First Aqua-4/1
Rideau-Carleton R15.1 Kiss Quietly-2/1
Scarborough R4......3 Accentgrave L A-5/1
Scarborough R9......7 St Lads Survivor-5/2
Saratoga R5.........4 Danny-9/2
Saratoga R6.........2 Gabby's Creditcard-9/5
Saratoga R8.........6 Jocular-9/2
Saratoga R10........2 Lord Burghley-5/2
Vernon R8...........8 Sun Island-9/2
Vernon R10..........9 Naughty Image-15/1
Vernon R12..........2 Broule Hanover-9/2
Woodbine R9.........9 Spurofthehauer-8/1
Woodbine R10........5 Nora Lee-2/1
Windsor R4..........2 Twin B Excalibur-5/2
Yonkers R2..........4 Lady In The Wind-9/5
Yonkers R5..........2 Deep Chip-3/1
Yonkers R8..........1 Sand Top Gun-5/1
Yonkers R9..........8 Rapid Strategy-8/1
Yonkers R11.........8 Shacked Up-9/5

[Roghaltz]

Good luck Ray. Looks interesting.

[Ray2000]

Thx Roghaltz, your good wishes helped :)
On $98 bet...(2 Scr) Win bets made $34 -- Place bets made $10
but Win bets were skewed by Naughty Image-15/1 Win Price at Vernon, $31.40
Had to check... Robot likes young ones with high ITM stats (80%)


Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L..ROI.............Place P/L..Roi
$450....$79.70...17.7%.........$29.90.....6.6%

Saturday's Picks of highly ranked chalks

Balmoral R7.........5 Fox Valley Oracle-8/5
Batavia R1..........4 Hesaporsche-5/2
Batavia R3..........3 Nuclear Cam-5/2
Batavia R7..........3 Oh Gee Whiz-5/2
Batavia R8..........1 Doeswhathepleases-3/1
Batavia R12.........4 Breezefromthewest-4/1
Cal Expo R6.........3 Don't Dally Witch-5/2
Colonial R5.........6 Worker C-7/2
Colonial R7.........5 Easy Connection-9/2
Colonial R8.........7 Imadragon-4/1
Colonial R11........7 Carpe Diem-7/2
Freehold R3.........1 Zepplin Blue Chip-3/1
Freehold R5.........1 Meantnodisrespect-7/2
Freehold R12........1 Chambers Bay-4/5
Georgian R11........2 Diego Seelster-9/2
Indiana R2..........1 Ota B D Best-5/1
Kawartha R4.........5 Pres-5/2
Lebanon R9..........5 Stolen Penny-5/1
Western Fair R5.....2 Foolishly-6/5
Western Fair R6.....1 Whatsthurraymurray-2/1
The BigM R1.........3 Meirs Hanover-3/1
Northfield R1.......1 That Fly'n Angel-7/2
Northfield R14......4 Step By Step-6/1
Northville R1.......8 Norton-7/2
Northville R4.......3 Howyadoinpal-5/2
Northville R7.......2 War Dancer-7/2
Northville R9.......2 Mega Chips-4/1
Northville R11......1 Cruisin N Surfin-4/1
Northville R14......5 A Cam Fine Fella-3/1
Pocono R1...........4 Shibboleth Hanover-3/1
Pocono R3...........4 Four Trumps A-2/1
Pocono R6...........5 Ideal Race-5/2
Pocono R9...........8 Vlos-5/2
Pocono R10..........8 Saint William A-5/2
Scarborough R2......6 Blueridge Player-8/1
Scarborough R7......1 Marks Little Buddy-7/2
Scarborough R9......1 For Now-3/5
Saratoga R4.........3 Western Dancing-3/1
Saratoga R10........4 Hms Panafore-4/1
Saratoga R16........7 Funny Lena-5/2
Saratoga R24........2 Time Flow-3/1
Saratoga R25........2 Northern Edge-4/5
Saratoga R26........2 Koko In Flight-5/2
Vernon R2...........7 Saranac Hanover-9/2
Woodbine R2.........2 Twin B Warrior-9/2
Yonkers R6..........5 Aliveandwell N-4/1
Yonkers R9..........4 Tidewater Tomahawk-8/5

[Ray2000]

Too late to Edit

Saratoga Races 16,24,25,26, are evening Card 3,11,12,13

[melman]

Ray---This may be helpful to you if you can research it without spending a whole lot of time. When any pick on your list that you have posted in this thread is part of a pic3 use it as a "single". For the other legs use the top three picks. Thus a 3 by 3 by 1 seq. Total bet on a $2.00 pic three ticket thus is $18.00. This has been a goldmine at Monticello. One winner paid $1.029. Just tossing it out there for ya to ponder on. :D Keep this on the QT but using your data on the pic3's at MEA is also a goldmine. :)

[Ray2000]

mel

You've discovered how I've been picking my singles when I post pic3s.:)

Shhhh:D


Of course a little human intervention is needed to toss out the "sillies"

[Ray2000]

On $94 bet* Win Returned $135 for $41 profit (44%), Place $23 profit (24%)

*Kawartha can't be bet online on Saturdays, but it hit so I'm counting it.:)

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L..Roi
$544....$120.70...22.2%.....$52.50.....9.7%

Sunday's Halloween Picks

Balmoral R11........5 D Lee More-5/1
Chester R8..........6 Warning Zone-7/2
Colonial R4.........4 Bar B's Apache Cam-6/1
Dover R1............4 Onawish Hanover-2/1
Dover R3............5 Furious Frank-5/2
Dover R7............4 Stuart Brown N-7/2
Dover R14...........4 Art's Last Trick-3/1
Dover R11...........6 Frostonpunkin-5/1
Dover R10...........1 Straighttalkxpress-2/1
Flamboro R11........5 J L Tiger-5/2
Flamboro R5.........2 Pumped And Glidin-5/2
Fraser R10..........7 Mystic Maiden-6/5
Rideau-Carleton R14.6 Long Tall Western-2/1
Rideau-Carleton R10.1 Golden Vanity-15/1
Scarborough R4......4 Molly N Me-5/2
Saratoga R10........2 Westwood Castleton-4/1
Saratoga R1.........5 Ucan Call Me Rei-5/2
Windsor R7..........1 Beach Boy Toy-12/1
Windsor R11.........5 Kable Kar Hanover-3/1

[teddy]

Out standing... evidently software is helping some of us.. too bad I cant get it to download.

[Ray2000]

teddy thx

sorry about the downloading problem, see my PM

[Ray2000]

Hit a bump? hopefully not a wall.

Bet $38 Wins lost $13 (-33%), Place lost $2 (-6%)


Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$582....$108.......18.6%.....$50.........8.7%

Low price Picks for Monday except for ??

Bangor R8...........6 Slippery When Wet-3/1
Bangor R9...........2 Blissfullsreaction-5/2
Dover R6............5 Shark Mcgwire-6/1
Dover R9............5 Jezal Theory A-10/1 Improving times, but should be a longshot
Dover R10...........8 Giddy Up Lucky-8/5
Indiana R9..........4 Bluebird Longlegs-5/2
Western Fair R2.....3 Fontanas Boy-4/1
Western Fair R3.....6 Justalittleluck-9/5
Western Fair R7.....3 Reibercrombie-8/5
Meadows R5..........7 Major Ideal-12/1 Last was a good fight 1st over, in slop
Monticello R2.......4 Destiny Dream-5/2
Monticello R11......4 Pembroke Annie Mac-4/1
Pompano R4..........6 Life's Z Tam-4/1
Pompano R5..........8 Omaha Survivor-3/1
Woodbine R8.........6 Truth In Action-3/1

[Ray2000]

Place betting out did Win bets yesterday on 14 wagers (1 Scr)
but The Meadows bet on Major Ideal and Mike Wilder returned $17 to Place.
Win made +$4.40, Place made +$20.10

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$610....$113......18.5%.....$71.........11.6%

This whole Experiment started because I noticed a strange pattern in Place bet returns but it turns out there was a serious error in my data set :blush: and Place betting DOES NOT exceed Win betting on low price horses. I'll keep this going until I reach a thousand bet anyway, just for the hell of it.....

Tuesday's Plays Win/Place on probably the favorite

Bangor R8...........7 R Rs Wanderer-6/1
Bangor R9...........2 Masai Mara-3/1
Batavia R2..........4 Red White And Crue-5/2
Batavia R5..........5 Inspector Mctavish-4/1
Dover R1............1 Honorary Hanover-6/1
Dover R11...........2 Perfect M Forever-5/2
Dover R12...........5 Yippy-2/1
Georgian R1.........2 Dontdragmeshoppin-3/1
Kawartha R1.........7 Gracie Montana-7/2
Kawartha R2.........5 Sir Laurence-6/1
Kawartha R4.........5 Seagram-5/2
Kawartha R6.........3 Watkins-9/2
Western Fair R7.....4 Timeless Artist-8/1
Western Fair R10....2 Northern Fling-7/5
Western Fair R11....4 Breitling-8/5
Meadows R10.........1 Variance Hanover-9/2
Meadows R14.........3 Hurrikane Scotty J-4/1
Meadows R15.........2 Chiptoria Secret-3/1
Monticello R1.......7 Jomega-5/2
Monticello R6.......4 Space Bunny-5/2
Monticello R9.......4 Cheyenne Ryan-5/2
Monticello R11......1 Art Lee-5/2
Monticello R12......4 Double Jack-5/2
Monticello R13......1 Seawind Dropper-4/1
Northfield R6.......7 Towner's Greatlady-5/2
Northfield R11......3 Robin Dontget-3/1
Pocono R4...........7 Prairie Ganache-8/1
Pocono R8...........2 Upfront Cosmo-7/2
Pocono R11..........8 Florida Mac Attack-3/1
Plainridge R2.......7 Iroquoindianbrave-6/1
Plainridge R6.......5 Menage Hall-7/2
Plainridge R8.......1 Ace-3/1
Woodbine R1.........1 Flora Dream-7/2
Woodbine R3.........2 Hes A Demon-5/2
Woodbine R5.........7 World Away-5/1
Woodbine R8.........6 Lets Make Ideal-9/2
Windsor R8..........6 Streetwise Hall-10/1
Yonkers R6..........7 Speculative Edge-9/5
Yonkers R7..........4 R C Cruiser-4/1

[Ray2000]

Bet $76 (1 scr) Win +$14.50 (19%), Place -$7.50 (-10%)

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$686....$127......18.5%.....$63.........9.2%

Wednesday's Short Picks
Batavia R6..........7 Mighty Looker-9/2
Batavia R8..........4 Up Front Lady Gray-3/1
Batavia R11.........1 Space Chalet-5/2
Batavia R12.........3 Sb Quents Knight-7/2
Chester R10.........1 Sleek Hunter-7/2
Dover R5............5 Funny Briefs-7/2
Dover R6............5 Lucky Enough-7/2
Dover R11...........3 Bestnotgetinmyway-7/2
Dover R12...........1 Dirty Devil-3/1
Freehold R8.........8 Sole My Way-12/1
Flamboro R11........4 Xlb Patrick-8/5
Monticello R7.......2 I C Linda-5/2
Monticello R8.......1 Mister Lucky Vec-3/1
Monticello R11......2 Optimist N-5/2
Northfield R10......4 Nukes Fortunateson-5/1
Northfield R12......8 Jay Dean Dew-7/2
Pocono R12..........4 Awesome Glow-3/1
Windsor R4..........3 Louisville Elmer-7/2
Windsor R8..........9 Sand Jake-5/1

[melman]

Great work Ray. Well over 300 selections with a 18+% ROI. Have you hit a pic4 at Western yet? As Dean has pointed out they now have TWO pic4's per night and at the excellant takeout rate of 15%. That's action on four races with only a one time take of 15%. Yes I know you have to be selective and not be every one of them but I sure hope the pool totals show a big increace for Western on this bet. Plus I LOVE how they have the 8 as trailer in every race. Very good move for a half mile track. I would love to see Bob Pandolfo drop by here from time to time and post some selections for Western. BTW Ray I feel today like I hit a huge pic3 payout. Toomey-Corbett-Fitzpatrick. :)

[Ray2000]

Thx mel

Glad Dean posted that info on Western Fair.
I like those pic3s and 4s that you got me hooked on:)

BTW I went with that Tom-Tooney Exacta also..:)

I'm guessing you got that Brett Miller - Mike Wilder $500 Exacta at the Meadows Monday (no need to reply). I put my posted pick (Wilder) on top..damn:bang:

Good Luck, I'll put up my London Picks tomorrow

[melman]

As you know Ray I have moved most of my betting into the pic bets. It has been very profitable. I really enjoy "walking the carpet" when "live" to the last leg of a pic bet. :D I want to send a shout out to "Catskill Steve" the track capper at Monticello also. He does a very nice job. It should be noted what Dean has posted in his Western thread. Unlike tracks in the States you can download for FREE a program with full pp's for Western. Let me repeat a FREE program for all Western races.

[Ray2000]

On $38 bet, Win +$16.40 (43%), Place +$3.50 (9%)

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$724....$144......19.8%.....$67.........9.2%


Thursday's Short price Picks
Cal Expo R9.........3 Cherry Tree Nicole-7/5
Cal Expo R10........5 Cash Allowance-5/2
Chester R2..........4 Tampico-9/2
Chester R5..........4 Fd White Diamonds-6/1
Chester R6..........4 Lil' Miss Tut-4/1
Chester R8..........4 Kimmy-7/2
Dover R2............2 Intimidator Three-2/1
Dover R10...........1 Fox Valley Barzgar-9/2
Flamboro R3.........9 Queen Of Pembroke-9/2
Western Fair R4.....5 Makinga Difference-3/1
Maywood R4..........5 Magic In Your Eyes-5/2
Maywood R7..........7 Reflexonofperfexon-4/1
Maywood R9..........1 Pinfoot-4/1
Maywood R10.........6 Prime Minister-4/1
Monticello R4.......5 Pay To Play-7/2
Monticello R10......1 Bar None-7/2
Monticello R13......5 Jaxon Terrific-5/2
Northville R8.......1 Abes Little Blacky-4/1
Northville R11......5 Buckeye Doug-3/1
Plainridge R3.......8 Northern Regent-10/1
Plainridge R8.......3 Odds On Ariel-3/1
Rideau-Carleton R5..6 Winston Image-3/1
Woodbine R2.........6 Striking Pat-9/2
Woodbine R7.........8 Beer League-6/1
Woodbine R9.........2 Notch Yer Best-7/1
Yonkers R5..........1 Nancy Irene-5/1

Pic4s
Western Fair R4.....5 w/1,2 ...Makinga Difference-3/1
Western Fair R5.....3 w/4,2 ...Mcelodian-8/5
Western Fair R6.....3 w/5,8 ...Daylon Diva-2/1
Western Fair R7.....1 w/3,2 ...T J Joules-8/5 (the 6 is a breaker)

My Play 51/342/35/132 ...36 tkts

Western Fair R9......4 w/1,5 ...Grayland Curious-3/1
Western Fair R10....3 w/2,4 ...Pontiac Luck-3/1
Western Fair R11....4 w/3,5 ...Fb Seelster-8/1
Western Fair R12....4 w/8,1 ...Pembroke Motion-1/1

My Play 4/4/4/4 ...1 tkt (Don't like the 11th Race:p)

[teddy]

Nothing short of phenominal, do you like a pick 4 for freehold.. I only play the carryovers, big one at calexp tonight too. I like to bet a pos expectation bets!!!

[Ray2000]

thx teddy

The carryovers would be on the early P4s, hope there's a double carryover
because I don't particular like the early offerings.

At Freehold
The Early Pic4 R2-3-4-5
The Maidens in Race4 and the breakers in Race 5 is too much for me, so I pass.

The late Pic4 R7-8-9-10 looks playable with juicy longshots in the 9th ...20 tkts
R7 4,2 ......Where's Harry-5/1, Trot Like Dad-7/2
R8 3 ........Be My Rock Star-3/1
R9 7,2,3,5,1 Paula's Brady-12/1, Larissa-10/1, Livid Luke 6/1 and the 2 ML faves
R10 1,2..... You Can't Fool Me-3/1,Rusty's Martini-7/2

At Cal Expo
The short fields in the early Pic4 doesn't interest me (California has limited stock)
the Late P4 R8-9-10-11....125/3/5/all...24 tkts

Good Luck!

[melman]

A carryover on a pic4 is not a common thing. They can be hard to find. When I do find one even then I have to "like" the races (or at least most of the races) in the pic4. I agree with your comments about today at Freehold as a perfect example. As much as I like the pic bets the early pic4 at FHL is a pass. Even with a carryover. I will be investing in the late pic4 as that seems to be offering a good shot at a nice return. Should be a sloppy track so that makes it even better. :)

Teddy---Check out the Western Fair pic4's. The offer two of them a night and FREE programs on line. The 15% takeout at Western for the pic4 is outstanding. I should note that the 15% takeout rate starts FRIDAY night. For tonight only the old 26% is still in effect. Also Western would be one of the3 few places that may have carryover pic4's as there handle has not been large. Hope to see that change.

[melman]

Ray a couple of pic bets for today at MR if the prices are OK in Leg One of the bet.

R3 6312
R4 54
R5 36
R6 516
R7 852
R8 316
R9 54
R10 1

*I think the winner of the last race today at MR might pay $2.10. :)

[teddy]

I WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE DOUBLE CARRY OVER. NAILED ONE FOR 800 AT NFLD A FEW NIGHTS A GO WHEN THE PARLAY WAS 200.00 ISH... THANKS FOR THE INFO ON WESTERN FAIR MEL. IM A LONG TIME HARNESS PLAYER, BUT NEVER PLAYED WFR. I SAW IT ON THE TV AND IT LOOKED LIKE THEY MIGHT RACE MOTORCYCLES THERE TOO.. OUTSIDE POSTS WERE HURTING.

[Ray2000]

I shouldn't post a remark when a fella misses on a 'carpet pacer' - leg 3 but nice cappin' mel on 2 double digit prices in the 1st 2 legs. forgive me.

Mystic Mac 14.40, typhoon blue chip 10.60

[melman]

Teddy--Western Fair now has the 8 start in the 2nd tier. Gives the 8 a much better chance to compete. They have FREE video and FREE programs at there web site.

[melman]

No problem Ray. Missed that pic3 at a decent price but that's the way it works sometimes. Decided to play a pic3 on races 234 when I saw some good prices. Got paid $76 for 2 out of 3. Not bad. Missed on race 6 also. IMO an amazing win price on the 3 in R3. Best of trips.

[teddy]

almost ray.... nice picks...
at freehold..



thx teddy

The carryovers would be on the early P4s, hope there's a double carryover
because I don't particular like the early offerings.

At Freehold
The Early Pic4 R2-3-4-5
The Maidens in Race4 and the breakers in Race 5 is too much for me, so I pass.

The late Pic4 R7-8-9-10 looks playable with juicy longshots in the 9th ...20 tkts
R7 4,2 ......Where's Harry-5/1, Trot Like Dad-7/2
R8 3 ........Be My Rock Star-3/1
R9 7,2,3,5,1 Paula's Brady-12/1, Larissa-10/1, Livid Luke 6/1 and the 2 ML faves
R10 1,2..... You Can't Fool Me-3/1,Rusty's Martini-7/2

At Cal Expo
The short fields in the early Pic4 doesn't interest me (California has limited stock)
the Late P4 R8-9-10-11....125/3/5/all...24 tkts

Good Luck!

[Ray2000]

Both Win and/or Place betting lost $2 on $52 bet (-4%)

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$776....$142......18.3%.....$64.........8.3%

Friday's Short Price W/P Plays
Batavia R8..........5 Iseerightthrough U-5/1
Batavia R12.........5 Dawn Of Trey-5/2
Cal Expo R9.........6 Irish Mint-12/1
Cal Expo R11........5 Freedomize-10/1
Cal Expo R14........6 Camelot Cavalier-10/1
Chester R4..........7 Matrix Hall-5/2
Chester R6..........8 Burl Hanover-6/1
Chester R8..........8 Pacey Deucey-8/1
Colonial R5.........5 Bar B's Apache Cam-3/1
Freehold R2.........4 Credible Blu-3/1
Freehold R9.........4 Cherry Tree Luke-3/1
Freehold R10........2 Ocean Of Motion-3/1
Flamboro R10........3 Show Busness-9/5
Indiana R7..........5 Windsong Farewell-3/1
Indiana R10.........4 Legends Never Rest-8/1
Lebanon R8..........9 Shortin Sasse-6/1
Western Fair R5.....4 Veronicavermillion-6/5
Western Fair R7.....8 Dm Ion-9/2
The BigM R4.........2 Classic Son-3/1
Meadows R14.........7 Cadie's Gotta Gun-5/1
Northfield R4.......2 Rosie Caribia-7/5
Northfield R7.......2 Memphis Glow-2/1
Northfield R10......3 Caribean Cruise-4/1
Northfield R11......2 Matt-scoot-n-bunny-7/5
Northfield R13......6 Silver Dollar Star-3/1
Northville R2.......1 Rusty Water-4/1
Northville R4.......2 Judy's Promise-5/2
Rideau-Carleton R12.9 Coast Highway-3/1
Scarborough R3......5 Muir Hanover-9/5
Vernon R4...........2 Grey Ice-5/2
Vernon R5...........3 Prettyasapageant-5/2
Vernon R6...........5 Long Story Short-10/1
Vernon R7...........6 Shady Matilda-5/2
Vernon R8...........3 Scorpion Moon-2/1
Woodbine R4.........8 Meet Me Out West-9/2
Yonkers R3..........2 Art's Shadow-9/5
Yonkers R4..........5 Tomorrowpan-3/1
Yonkers R7..........1 Hannah Isabel-3/1
Yonkers R9..........4 Johnny Walker-9/5

[teddy]

DOVER CARRYOVER PICK 4 AND BALMORAL HAS A HUGE ONE .. BOTH RUN TOMORROW I THINK. I Struck out yesterday at cal expo.. I better stick with nfld. The robot had a rough night too. It was good for win bets but missed the place hole what seemed like 10 times for me. Do you change the settings for off tracks, have you seen sliding that to 100 on wet tracks to make a huge difference in returns?

[Ray2000]

Yep, Only caught one decent W/P hit at Northville but you can't tell anything on 26 wagers. In fact IMO you need at least a thousand Win bets or 5000 Exactas to have any confidence that the ROI means anything.

As for the Robot's Off track Slider setting, when set to 100, the horses off track WPS% only accounts for 4% of his total score. It mostly useful as a tie-breaker if there's enough Off-track starts to be meaningful.

[teddy]

Never ever doubt this man.... cal exp race 9 $44 horse.. The robot is alive and well... noticed you took the same driver owner trainer on all 3 horses, coming to cal exp for the first time in a while. I think he had this planned well ahead.

[teddy]

Actually just two of his horses shipping in. His other horse looks too slow.. I am going to hate to see your pics go Ray. You are proof there is a wealth of knowledge here.

[Ray2000]

thx teddy, that Calx Race 14 was a pleasant surprise also $13.40 $5.20



Contributed by the fans of Jerry "What ever happened to Linda Rhonstadt" Brown...
One Short-Price? Win bet paid $45.80

Bets made $72 (2 scr, 1 refund), Win Profit 34.30 (48%) Place Loss $13.40 (-19%)

Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$848....$176......20.8%.....$51.........6.0%

Saturday's Short Picks

Bangor R2...........7 Masai Mara-4/1
Balmoral R5.........6 Mischief Man-5/2
Balmoral R13........5 Thereplayinoursong-3/1
Balmoral R14........7 Three On The Floor-4/1
Batavia R1..........1 Odds On The Beach-5/2
Batavia R4..........5 Guest Host-4/1
Batavia R8..........1 Just A Moment-5/2
Batavia R9..........1 Special Character-4/1
Batavia R10.........4 Unbridled Hanover-4/1
Cal Expo R4.........1 Groovin Hi-9/5
Cal Expo R9.........5 Hi Ho Steverino-6/5
Cal Expo R11........6 Satire-5/2
Colonial R5.........2 Robinmeblind-3/1
Freehold R2.........1 Racketeer-9/2
Freehold R6.........5 Who Am I-8/1
Freehold R8.........1 Lil Dude Starrbuck-3/1
Freehold R10........2 Mcmelody-3/1
Freehold R14........2 Keep On Amazin-7/2
Georgian R8.........3 Zoomtastic-6/1
Indiana R7..........3 Well To Do Guru-6/1
Lebanon R14.........2 Torre-8/1
Western Fair R2.....3 Luke Busy-2/1
Western Fair R10....1 Dalhousie Dave-8/5
Northfield R5.......3 One Sharp Spur-5/2
Northfield R6.......4 Osborne's Yankee-9/2
Northville R7.......1 Howdy Partner-5/2
Northville R8.......5 J D Johnnie-8/1
Northville R10......2 Blackbird Singing-5/2
Pocono R1...........4 Pink Caviar-5/2
Pocono R10..........5 Drive All Night-5/1
Pocono R11..........4 Four Trumps A-2/1
Pompano R1..........4 Maxine's Menace-4/1
Scarborough R2......4 Four Starz Gala-5/2
Saratoga R3.........3 No Need To Know-3/1
Saratoga R17........4 Arts Fav' Won-6/5
Saratoga R21........3 Time Flow-5/2
Saratoga R23........7 Roxies Big Guy-9/2
Vernon R7...........8 Daleys Interest-6/1
Vernon R9...........8 Sand Forever-8/1
Windsor R1..........4 Starry Knight-5/2
Windsor R2..........2 Morgandy-6/1
Windsor R5..........5 Casimir Jubilee-4/1
Windsor R10.........9 Shes Alittle Lucky-9/2
Yonkers R1..........4 Poker Hat-8/5
Yonkers R3..........2 Hands To Yourself-8/5
Yonkers R5..........4 Eagle All-5/1
Yonkers R6..........3 Hula's Z Tam-9/5
Yonkers R10.........4 Faucon Stena-5/1
Yonkers R12.........4 Idealic Life-3/1



.

[Ray2000]

Saratoga R17-21-23 are Evening card Race 4-8-10

[teddy]

Yeah I woke up to a pleasant surprise, that horse in the 14th had sneaky plano on it. I have noticed how they can WAKE UP when hes involved. He had one this week that looked blah and slow, then won by 10. I think you might be getting a following. Your long shot opened up as the favorite then went to 20 to one... haha. Actually for some reason your horses opened up as chalk all night then usually went up.

[Ray2000]

Place betting broke even but Win Betting took a heavy loss, dropping ROI 20.8->14.4
Shows why you need at least 1000 bets to determine ROI within a reasonable +-error

Bets made= $96 (1 scr), Win.. Loss -$40.40 (-42%), Place.. Profit $2.30 (+2%)


Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$944....$136......14.4%.....$53.........5.6%

Sunday's Short Picks

Balmoral R4.........6 Beech Bluff Tiny-3/1
Balmoral R7.........7 Native Hotspur-5/2
Balmoral R9.........1 Fox Valley Touche-9/5
Balmoral R12........1 Bath Sheet-5/2
Chester R7..........2 Warning Zone-5/2
Chester R8..........7 Or-3/1
Dover R11...........1 Winsmith Art-6/1
Flamboro R4.........1 Lucky Gift-7/5
Flamboro R8.........4 Great George-8/5
Fraser R3...........3 True Humility-8/5
Rideau-Carleton R5..8 Long Tall Western-2/1
Rideau-Carleton R11.1 Lemon Candy-10/1
Rideau-Carleton R12.3 A Sudden Twist-10/1
Scarborough R1......8 Red Diamond-9/2
Scarborough R12.....2 Miss Halo-5/2
Saratoga R5.........3 Star Studded Gun-5/2
Saratoga R8.........6 He Wants It All-3/1
Saratoga R12........5 Thors Hammer-3/1
Windsor R5..........7 Spare Time Chuckie-5/1

[teddy]

I predict good things today Ray. Grease the robot!

[Ray2000]

Good Prediction teddy:)

On 19 Races, $38 Betting Win made $16.30 (43%), Place made $8.70 (23%)


Totals to date...
$Bet....Win P/L...ROI.......Place P/L...Roi
$982....$152......15.5%.....$62.........6.3%

Monday's Short Price Picks
Bangor R7...........2 Annie Mac-7/2
Bangor R8...........2 Blissfullsreaction-3/1
Dover R3............3 Bluehurst-3/1
Western Fair R7.....1 Secret Weapon-8/5
Monticello R1.......2 Allamerican Quiver-3/1
Monticello R2.......5 An Electric Laugh-5/2
Monticello R3.......2 Lexi's Cruiser-7/2
Monticello R10......2 Wait Until Dark-5/2
Northfield R10......1 Armbro Wallstreet-5/1
Pompano R2..........4 Cherrio-5/1
Pompano R5..........1 Up Front Rudy-7/2
Pompano R7..........5 Full Of Sand-2/1
Woodbine R4.........9 Good Bad Lucky-5/2
Woodbine R6.........1 Odd Man Out-3/1
Woodbine R9.........6 Amazing Quest-7/2

[Ray2000]

Monday's Results:

$30 bet, Win profit $4 (12%), Place profit $3 (10%)

Final Totals.
$Bet....Win P/L...Win ROI.........Place P/L.....Place ROI
$1,012...$156.....15.4%..........$65.............6 .4%

Win Strike Rate 41.3%, average Price $5.59
Place Strike .....61.7%, average Price $3.46

That will end this experiment at 506 races.
Showed a profit betting mostly heavy favorites (Robot Pick 1 rated at 6/5 odds or lower) but....

1. A few longshots popped up which really saved the day and
2. Robot was exceptionally hot during these 3 weeks
compared to the last 2 yr stats for this type of Picks:

$23,090 Bet....
Win ROI......2.6%......Strike 38.7%.....ave Pay $5.30
Place ROI....0.6%......Strike 58.0%.....ave Pay $3.47


.

[pandy]

Ray, on the 2 year study, if you eliminated all bets on horses that were below 1-2 odds, would the ROI be higher or lower?

[Ray2000]

Bob

I'm pretty sure you're talking about the actual Odds at Post and I need to pull those numbers.

For now
When the Robot made the 1st choice "Odds on" the ROI went up slightly

9,636 bet
3.0% ROI Win
1.6% ROI Place

For Picks between Even and 6/5 ROI was down
13,454 bet
2.3% ROI Win
-0.1% ROI Place

Eliminating horses who went off at 1/2 or lower would be more interesting.
I'll post them later.

[teddy]

I specialize in chalk and I think your numbers will go up as you go down in odds to 1-9.

Do you count a selection by the robot as one on the playlist or just one on the main page for each race. The playlist is more selective and does not give out plays sometimes.

[pandy]

Teddy, I'm not sure what you mean. Are you saying that if you include the horses below 1-2 odds the ROI will be higher?

[teddy]

Carryover at nfld 3k on the pick 5..... usually a pick 3 with Merriman driving

[teddy]

I think because its handicapped chalk and not just regular chalk. That it makes a huge difference. Not all 1-2 shots are the same. I looked at 1000 harness races once and below 1-5 the roi on show bets if you exclude trotters is almost 1.0 . Might have been an anomoly but I did that by hand and cant repeat it.

[Ray2000]

Those other ROIs: (Sure helps to kick out $3.00 or less post time prices for this set:))

I don't have a complete set of charts for all races, the missing ones are mostly Canadian.

So for the races where I do have Actual odds at post for the Robots pick 1
and the play is Robot's Pick 1 at 6/5 or lower odds.... it breaks down:

All
18,472 bet
4.0% ROI Win
2.4% ROI Place

actual Odds 1/2 or lower

2,362 bet
-10.4% ROI Win
-3.7% ROI Place

Posttime Odds > 1/2

16,110 bet
6.1% ROI Win
3.3% ROI Place

_________________
teddy

The robots selections are the ones that make the playlist, no maidens, field size <7 or >10, dist<> 1 mile, too many with no lines or too many breakers


.

[pandy]

Thanks Ray, it's nice of you do respond to our queries like you do, I think I speak for everyone who follows harness racing that we appreciate your time and effort.

This is exactly what I thought would happen. Horses going off below a $3.00 payout are bad bets over the long term, regardless of how good they look on paper. The thing is, I've seen many horses between the 1-2 and 7-5 odds range that probably should be shorter odds, but below 1-2 there are very few overlays. In fact I think you can make a case that most horses that go off below 1-2 odds are underlays. There are exceptions, 2-5 on Rock N Roll Heaven for instance, but not many.

[teddy]

Wow.. im really surprised. Thanks Teddy. I show bet so on my selections when they odds go below 1-5 I have a 98% show hit rate on TB. I think breakers kill it for the trots. You cant have many outs in the show game.


I missed the pick 4 at dover because I left off the freaking 9... the top robot pick. Yesterday was not a good day for my play mentally. Wrote down the pick 5 at nfld and didnt play it either.. only would have paid 4k.

[teddy]

Those other ROIs: (Sure helps to kick out $3.00 or less post time prices for this set:))

I don't have a complete set of charts for all races, the missing ones are mostly Canadian.

So for the races where I do have Actual odds at post for the Robots pick 1
and the play is Robot's Pick 1 at 6/5 or lower odds.... it breaks down:

All
18,472 bet
4.0% ROI Win
2.4% ROI Place

actual Odds 1/2 or lower

2,362 bet
-10.4% ROI Win
-3.7% ROI Place

Posttime Odds > 1/2

16,110 bet
6.1% ROI Win
3.3% ROI Place

_________________
teddy

The robots selections are the ones that make the playlist, no maidens, field size <7 or >10, dist<> 1 mile, too many with no lines or too many breakers


.
how bout greater than 1-2 but less than 7-5...

[Ray2000]

Realtime Odds greater than 0.50 but less than 1.40

5,306 bet
-2.5% ROI Win
+0.2% ROI Place

Realtime Odds greater than 1.39 (7/5 and up..)

10,804 bet
+10.3% ROI Win
+4.9% ROI Place

Remember, we're talking about the Software Program Ray's Robot, AKA SulkyPicker,
Selections where Pick1 is rated at 6/5 or lower and I know the actual Chart Odds

.

[teddy]

Realtime Odds greater than 0.50 but less than 1.40

5,306 bet
-2.5% ROI Win
+0.2% ROI Place

Realtime Odds greater than 1.39 (7/5 and up..)

10,804 bet
+10.3% ROI Win
+4.9% ROI Place

Remember, we're talking about the Software Program Ray's Robot, AKA SulkyPicker,
Selections where Pick1 is rated at 6/5 or lower and I know the actual Chart Odds

.
I dont have the capability to check my horses i rate at lower than 6-5 but go off higher.... makes me wonder.