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View Full Version : A scenario that may happen on BC day.


TheGrandDesign
10-24-2010, 07:08 PM
We know Sherriffs scratched Zenyatta @ churchill a year ago due to track condition..
If the track condition came up sloppy or muddy will Zenyatta be scratch or will sherriffs feel the pressure and cave in and run Zenyatta anyway?A scenario certainly may occur.

Pick6
10-24-2010, 07:09 PM
I'm guessing 80% scratch, if sloppy/sealed.

TheGrandDesign
10-24-2010, 07:12 PM
Then does Sherriffs retire her or is tempted to run 1 more time.

Pick6
10-24-2010, 07:16 PM
Where? Assuming they want her back to the farm by March I don't see a compelling race that would make any difference between now and then.

MickJ26
10-24-2010, 07:28 PM
A sloppy track would give them a convenient excuse in case she loses.
I say the only way Zenyatta scratches is if it's a vet or steward's scratch.

Jasonm921
10-24-2010, 10:24 PM
Secretariat Movie...Zenyatta appearance on 60 Minutes. Yeah too much good exposure for racing so I could see things leveling out with a sloppy track on a monsoon type day circa Monmouth 2007. Too many things coming along too perfect here for the Breeders Cup. Has to be a monkey wrench coming.

letswastemoney
10-24-2010, 10:59 PM
The Cigar Mile would be very compelling, although they would never do it.

Zenyatta To Crush
10-25-2010, 12:14 AM
There is absolutely no way they scratch her just based on poor track conditions. Do you know how much attention she is gonna get leading up to this race? She probably helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so. The only way she scratches is if something is physically wrong with her...which hasn't happened to her yet...but you never know I guess.

FenceBored
10-25-2010, 07:28 AM
There is absolutely no way they scratch her just based on poor track conditions. Do you know how much attention she is gonna get leading up to this race? She probably helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so. The only way she scratches is if something is physically wrong with her...which hasn't happened to her yet...but you never know I guess.

Based on history CD could be expected to pull at least 70-75k people for Saturday. Thus, if Zenyatta "helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so" you're forcasting a crowd of at least 110-115k.

BluegrassProf
10-25-2010, 10:17 AM
I expect 475k. Extra tickets (section 111) will be $1300/each, and there's room available on my couch for $2300/night.

PM for info. :ThmbUp:

dccprez
10-25-2010, 10:41 AM
My guess; Zen runs, as long as the track doesn't come up truly "sloppy".

She's proven that she can run over Poly and dirt. She's well-suited to an off-track given her size. If the track is genuinely "muddy" then by all measure she can handle it. If it goes truly "sloppy" - soup-like - then it wouldn't be a stretch for her to be scratched just to protect the "franchise".

I'd do it (scratch) if I thought that running could result in a breakdown.

Nowithstanding her 19-19, the ultimate deciding point should come down to protecting the runner. She's a $10M mare...why risk it?

But if the track is even marginally "resilient" then she runs. And, most likely, wins.

I'll be rooting for her to cap off the brilliant carreer - even though I'm an "East Coast Bias" fan.

joanied
10-25-2010, 11:01 AM
I don't think they's scratch is it comes up muddy/sloppy...but will if they seal the track...that was the reason Shirreff's gave when they scratched her last time at CD...the sealing...another trainer that won't run on a sealed track is Zito.

startngate
10-25-2010, 11:20 AM
The forecast for Louisville is for about as pretty a fall day as you can get for both BC days. Highs in the 60's and mostly sunny.

Regardless, the track would pretty much have to be unsafe for her to scratch. It's her last start after all ... big difference from her previous trip to Churchill.

Spalding No!
10-25-2010, 11:37 AM
There is precedent here. John Shirreffs scratched After Market from his final career start in the 2007 BC Mile due to track condition.

NTamm1215
10-25-2010, 11:55 AM
I don't think they's scratch is it comes up muddy/sloppy...but will if they seal the track...that was the reason Shirreff's gave when they scratched her last time at CD...the sealing...another trainer that won't run on a sealed track is Zito.

Was that someone else who saddled Ice Box and Jackson Bend in this year's Ky Derby?

FenceBored
10-25-2010, 12:05 PM
Was that someone else who saddled Ice Box and Jackson Bend in this year's Ky Derby?

I believe it was his brother Mick Zito.

joanied
10-25-2010, 12:16 PM
Was that someone else who saddled Ice Box and Jackson Bend in this year's Ky Derby?

Zito has scratched when they sealed the track...has nothing to do with this year's Derby...just saying that he has done this and said the reason was a sealed surface.

joanied
10-25-2010, 12:18 PM
The forecast for Louisville is for about as pretty a fall day as you can get for both BC days. Highs in the 60's and mostly sunny.

Regardless, the track would pretty much have to be unsafe for her to scratch. It's her last start after all ... big difference from her previous trip to Churchill.

That's great news...I used a long range weather foecast (that we farmers use) a couple of weeks ago, and it did say chance of rain was small.

Like so many others...I want the weather to be just about perfect:)

Robert Goren
10-25-2010, 12:21 PM
I don't know what they will do, but if she were mine, there is no way she would run on off track. Lets hope there is no rain. This one of my pet gripes, deciding championships on off tracks.

NTamm1215
10-25-2010, 12:33 PM
Zito has scratched when they sealed the track...has nothing to do with this year's Derby...just saying that he has done this and said the reason was a sealed surface.

Well, he didn't scratch Nowhere to Hide in last year's Derby. Nor did he scratch War Pass in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Or Commentator in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Sprint. What about the two horses that he ran on the very track that was sealed the day Zenyatta was scratched at Churchill (he ran a third, Cool Coal Man, after the track was harrowed)? What about Wanderin Boy, who he ran on multiple sealed tracks during his career, including Oaks day 2008 where he also ran a maiden in the nightcap? That begs the question, do you actually have proof of a Zito scratch because of track condition?

I wouldn't be making an issue of this if people didn't subscribe to the theory that sealed tracks = dead horses, but many do, and they seem to do it based on false notions like the one you're propagating.

Spalding No!
10-25-2010, 12:39 PM
begs the question, do you actually have proof of a Zito scratch because of track condition?

Zito blamed Birdstone's odds-on defeat in the '04 Jim Beam on the sealed track. He might have suggested that he'd never run another horse on a sealed track (or was it Turfway?) in the heat of the moment.

At any rate, didn't Birdstone run on a couple of off-tracks in subsequent starts?

sally
10-25-2010, 12:39 PM
Just to be clear on this, a sealed track means a harder surface, thus a stronger possibility of a breakdown....is that correct?

bigbrown
10-25-2010, 12:42 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59491/breeders-cup-early-forecast-sunny-and-cool?source=rss

NTamm1215
10-25-2010, 12:46 PM
Zito blamed Birdstone's odds-on defeat in the '04 Jim Beam on the sealed track. He might have suggested that he'd never run another horse on a sealed track (or was it Turfway?) in the heat of the moment.

At any rate, didn't Birdstone run on a couple of off-tracks in subsequent starts?

He said this:

"I don't know why they sealed the track before the race," Zito said. "It wasn't raining then, but it is raining now. He (Birdstone) got shuffled back and was mired down on the inside. He just didn't run."

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/03/21/spt_sptshor1a.html

Steve 'StatMan'
10-25-2010, 12:59 PM
There is absolutely no way they scratch her just based on poor track conditions. Do you know how much attention she is gonna get leading up to this race? She probably helps Churchill draw an extra 40,000 or so. The only way she scratches is if something is physically wrong with her...which hasn't happened to her yet...but you never know I guess.

I'm pretty sure the tickets, at least the vast majority, are sold in advance - the crowd size, or preserving crowd size, will most likely not be a factor in any decision to scratch.

sally
10-25-2010, 01:01 PM
He said this:

"I don't know why they sealed the track before the race," Zito said. "It wasn't raining then, but it is raining now. He (Birdstone) got shuffled back and was mired down on the inside. He just didn't run."

Oh, so if he got "mired down" the track was too soft?

joanied
10-25-2010, 01:17 PM
Well, he didn't scratch Nowhere to Hide in last year's Derby. Nor did he scratch War Pass in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Or Commentator in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Sprint. What about the two horses that he ran on the very track that was sealed the day Zenyatta was scratched at Churchill (he ran a third, Cool Coal Man, after the track was harrowed)? What about Wanderin Boy, who he ran on multiple sealed tracks during his career, including Oaks day 2008 where he also ran a maiden in the nightcap? That begs the question, do you actually have proof of a Zito scratch because of track condition?

I wouldn't be making an issue of this if people didn't subscribe to the theory that sealed tracks = dead horses, but many do, and they seem to do it based on false notions like the one you're propagating.

Fine...I know he has done this because of a sealed track...but it isn't worth the argument that I can see coming.
I am not propagating anything...just mentioned the fact Zito will scratch a horse if the track is sealed.
So, that's it, I'm done.

johnhannibalsmith
10-25-2010, 01:34 PM
Totally off and on topic at the same time, my favorite Zito off-track performance...

YpqbsgHHQJ8

Cardus
10-25-2010, 03:37 PM
Fine...I know he has done this because of a sealed track...but it isn't worth the argument that I can see coming.
I am not propagating anything...just mentioned the fact Zito will scratch a horse if the track is sealed.
So, that's it, I'm done.

Here is the "argument" in a nutshell:

You're wrong.

Charli125
10-25-2010, 03:42 PM
Oh, so if he got "mired down" the track was too soft?

Sally,

I think you're looking for the definition of what exactly a sealed track is.

Here's a definition from the Jockey Club: http://www.jockeyclub.com/mediaCenter.asp?story=187

A sealed track is a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed. Dry tracks are sealed so that water runs off the track, reducing the amount of precipitation absorbed into the surface. Wet tracks are sealed to provide a safe and even racing surface.

Robert Fischer
10-25-2010, 04:30 PM
We know Sherriffs scratched Zenyatta @ churchill a year ago due to track condition..
If the track condition came up sloppy or muddy will Zenyatta be scratch or will sherriffs feel the pressure and cave in and run Zenyatta anyway?A scenario certainly may occur.

good question

the forecast says it is unlikely to be a sloppy or muddy track.

it's a good question though.

Obviously the best thing for bettors would be a sloppy sealed track with nothing but speed winning in an awful bias, but if those long-range farmers sites that Joanied put me on to are accurate, dry days are likely

Edward DeVere
10-25-2010, 04:34 PM
There is absolutely no way they scratch her just based on poor track conditions.

Clearly, you and I are living in alternate universes. IMHO, given the prospective quality and quantity of the Classic, Zenyatta's connections desperately want out of this race.

One possible option: "Well, based on the weather forecast, we just think it's better to run on Friday, when we think the track has a better chance to be fast."

There are several other things they could come up with.

Why do I say this? Because for two years Zenyatta's connections have said one thing and done another. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 3,487,269 times - shame on me.

startngate
10-25-2010, 04:59 PM
Sally,

I think you're looking for the definition of what exactly a sealed track is.

Here's a definition from the Jockey Club: http://www.jockeyclub.com/mediaCenter.asp?story=187

A sealed track is a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed. Dry tracks are sealed so that water runs off the track, reducing the amount of precipitation absorbed into the surface. Wet tracks are sealed to provide a safe and even racing surface. Very true. A sealed track does not always equal a hard surface.

Pine Tree Lane
10-25-2010, 05:08 PM
Zito blamed Birdstone's odds-on defeat in the '04 Jim Beam on the sealed track. He might have suggested that he'd never run another horse on a sealed track (or was it Turfway?) in the heat of the moment.

At any rate, didn't Birdstone run on a couple of off-tracks in subsequent starts?

He was also quoted in the Bloodhorse after winning the Belmont that if the track was sealed both Birdstone and Royal Assualt would not have run.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/22874/zito-says-belmont-is-biggest-win-of-career (http://)

bks
10-25-2010, 10:02 PM
Edward DeVere wrote:
Clearly, you and I are living in alternate universes. IMHO, given the prospective quality and quantity of the Classic, Zenyatta's connections desperately want out of this race.

And you and Tucker know this how?

Her connections have stated and re-stated their intention to run her in this race, without wavering, for months. She is the defending champ. The race is relatively weak for a BCC Classic, so I don't know what you're talking about.

keithw84
10-25-2010, 10:32 PM
Why are sealed tracks more dangerous?

pandy
10-25-2010, 10:36 PM
I don't think they'd scratch her, but a sealed track is often speed favoring so let's hope for good weather and a fair racetrack.