Break Call

[mountainman]

Has anyone researched this factor, perhaps in a creative way? I'm mulling it over as a topic for my blog, and consider it the most underestimated and least understood point of call. I'll spare you my theories on the first few jumps (and save them for the blog), but would appreciate some input.

[Pell Mell]

I pay a lot of attention to this. I don't know exactly what you mean when you say you are looking for input.

Right now all I can say is that more races are lost coming out of the gate then anywhere else so I guess that would be a reference to the break call.

[RaceBookJoe]

I think the break is very important, but i also found it very hard to "compute". I tried at give a point factor to the break at one time but I realized that for me it worked best as a 'trip handicapping' value. I paid more attention to early horse running styles than closers at the break. I found the best results to be when the individual horse's break was not his/her normal break pattern. For example, is a quick-out-of-the-gate horse got a slow break, how did it affect his race? Did he have to use too much energy to get into position and did it affect his entire race etc.

The other problem i always found was that the break could be so chaotic that every horse might have been helped/hindered. For me, trying to do more than just letting my mind try to visualize /analyze what i saw was too much work. I am really interested in reading what you find. rbj

[Greyfox]

It's a great question to research.
I've seen maidens jump out fast only to be strangled back by their riders.
To me that was a sign that they wanted to run.
Next time out look out. I haven't reseached it as I don't particularly trust the PP info on gate break. I trust what my eyes have seen.

[Tom]

I've posted a few times here about it - I use it religiously to evaluate the early speed. Here're a few posts......

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/search.php?searchid=2397902

[OverlayHunter]

Tom-

I keep getting an error when I try the link.

[Shelby]

Interesting topic.

For me, and I'm SO not on any of your levels as handicappers, but I don't see how you could make it a factor....who's to say that once a horse breaks perfectly that the next time the horse won't stumble, break out early etc.?

Or, am I not understanding this topic?

[Tom]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/search.php?searchid=2398247

[Pell Mell]

I watch the start of a race many times over. I don't think many realize the ground a horse can give up in one second. I think one of the worst kind of breaks is when a horse lounges or is climbing when it comes out. When a speed horse breaks a little slow the jock usually pushes the horse to try to get to the leaders and uses up a lot of energy doing it.

I blame it a lot on the starter, not to say it's easy to eyeball all the horses and pull the trigger at the right time. I notice that horses that break bad usually have their head turned when the gate opens.

I'm only trying to emphasize the importance of a good start. How to incorporate the 1st call into handicapping is another story. I'm inclined to think that when the PPs show that a horse that normally breaks well and has a race or 2 where it doesn't, those races should be discarded or extra credit given if it ran a really good race in spite of the break. JMO

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/search.php?searchid=2398247Search links like this "expire" after a little while...

[Tom]

Gottcha!

What I did was use advanced search, under "tom", in general handicapping, key words "start call."

There were a couple of discussions in those threads.

[Edward DeVere]

I think the break is very important but it would seem doubtful to me that much could be learned from the break call, i.e. the numbers printed in the past performances. Five horses could break in a line but the chartcaller has to place somebody first and somebody fifth. Without a "lengths behind" notation, how do you know what you're dealing with?

I would be a thousand times more interested in the pan shot, the head-on shot, the horse's usual running style and the jockey's tendencies.

[completebill]

The break call can be quantified. It works well, though, only with horses with several starts (5 or more??). I, at one time, wrote a pen & pencil early speed "system", using the break call. It is equally important, though for ALL running styles. Breaking well allows a horse to comfortably settle into its preferred running position, whatever it is.
I believe quantification and production of a numerical value could be incorporated in a good handicapping program, but someone needs to do the work to research the factor's Impact Value and relative weighting as a handicapping factor.
I threw out , usually the worst break, and averaged the rest.

[Greyfox]

I threw out , usually the worst break, and averaged the rest.

Sounds like a good idea. :ThmbUp:

[dastar]

The reason you will not be able to put a 'number' or use past performance races for 'The Break' is very simple. It has a lot to do with the jockey and his instructions from the trainer.

The trainers I knew in the past told me when you see a horse break slower than normal, especially after a layoff or trying a different surface or distance, this can mean they are testing what the horse can do regarding that particular race but when they will be trying for the score!

For example: If a jockey knows his horse will break faster when he physically does something (Like a hit on the horse rump when the gate opens) he may not do that to get the horse to break slower than normal.

To comment on Race Joe who mentioned that the speed horse that breaks slow, has to use too much energy to catch up... I see many speed horses that win a race when breaking slower than normal as that can keep them from a speed duel, which will really use up the horses energy.

Horses that break or not break can many times be traced back to the jockey and trainers orders to the jockey. Of course there are always exceptions. The horse may be distracted for a split second but hey, they are flesh and blood... Not machines...

[Nitro]

Has anyone researched this factor, perhaps in a creative way? I'm mulling it over as a topic for my blog, and consider it the most underestimated and least understood point of call. I'll spare you my theories on the first few jumps (and save them for the blog), but would appreciate some input.
I might be mistaken, but I found no mention of this topic on your blog.
http://www.mtrracetrack.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15:pattersons-perspective&catid=1:all-racing-news&Itemid=63

Instead, I’m back from the future and all I can say is I’ll be looking for a big black horse to be born on Holloween in 2013. If its name turns out to be Wallachian Prince I’ll be ready and waiting to take the plunge.

I think the moral of the story is “You n-e-e-e-v-e-r know what you might find running on any given at night on the Mountain, but if the jockey happens to be headless you’ll know it’s a Winner”.

Thanks for the entertaining blog MountainMan. It was very creative, well written and a welcome change of pace!

[mountainman]

I might be mistaken, but I found no mention of this topic on your blog.
http://www.mtrracetrack.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15:pattersons-perspective&catid=1:all-racing-news&Itemid=63

Instead, I’m back from the future and all I can say is I’ll be looking for a big black horse to be born on Holloween in 2013. If its name turns out to be Wallachian Prince I’ll be ready and waiting to take the plunge.

I think the moral of the story is “You n-e-e-e-v-e-r know what you might find running on any given at night on the Mountain, but if the jockey happens to be headless you’ll know it’s a Winner”.

Thanks for the entertaining blog MountainMan. It was very creative, well written and a welcome change of pace!

Thanks Nitro. To a small extent, it's a cautionary tale about the drugging issue, while on another level, "The Darkest Mile" is meant to play on pervasive fears concerning the game's future. Mainly, though, I just wanted to write a vampire story for Shane, my 15-yr-old. He's mildly autistic and THE authority on vampire lore. Shane is also a history buff and served as my "technical" consultant. The story also contains some "in" jokes that people close to me got a kick out of.

[mountainman]

I might be mistaken, but I found no mention of this topic on your blog.
http://www.mtrracetrack.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15:pattersons-perspective&catid=1:all-racing-news&Itemid=63

Instead, I’m back from the future and all I can say is I’ll be looking for a big black horse to be born on Holloween in 2013. If its name turns out to be Wallachian Prince I’ll be ready and waiting to take the plunge.

I think the moral of the story is “You n-e-e-e-v-e-r know what you might find running on any given at night on the Mountain, but if the jockey happens to be headless you’ll know it’s a Winner”.

Thanks for the entertaining blog MountainMan. It was very creative, well written and a welcome change of pace!

Reposted it for halloween, complete with new prologue. Not quite as bloodless now, and as dark as i dare take it on mnr website.