Early KD 2011 prices

[gm10]

For the fans

Uncle Mo 12/1
Boys At Tosconova 20/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/kentucky-derby

[gm10]

For the fans

Uncle Mo 12/1
Boys At Tosconova 20/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/kentucky-derby

Uncle Mo is 8/1 even after his romp (Coral)

[tucker6]

Uncle Mo is 8/1 even after his romp (Coral)That's a pretty low price this far out don't you think?

[gm10]

That's a pretty low price this far out don't you think?

I don't know. He looks like a complete stand-out to me ... but then again I also backed Quality Road 33/1 and Eskendereya 25/1 for the Derby and where did that get me :rolleyes: . So yeah it could be on the low side ... though it really only looks like a question of him getting through the winter OK now, I haven't seen or heard of anything else that could step up to his level.

[FlyinLate]

8-1 is about as close to flushing money down the toilet.
I would never take 8-1 nearly 6 months from the derby.
We've all seen early favorites go down faster than the speed of light over the last few years. There is too much time for things to go wrong and too many up and coming horses that could quickly outgrow him.
Keep in mind this year's derby favorite went off at....7-1...on derby day.
Only derby futures worth a shot are those offering gigantic odds after an impressive maiden victory with the breeding to enjoy the stretchout.

[pandy]

I've never made a future bet and I never will, these bets are sucker bets. Why would anyone bet a horse at 8-1 when you lose if the horse scratches?

First of all, it's highly unlikely that Uncle Mo will win the Derby, juvenile bc winners haven't fared well and he's probably got less than a 50-50 chance to even start in the race. The problem with a prolific 2yo, often they are simply physically ahead of their generation, but many of these colts don't mature as much as you'd think they would and they disappoint as a three year old. Think of Arazi, Vindication, etc. I think only one juvenile winner has ever won the Derby, Street Sense.

[gm10]

I've never made a future bet and I never will, these bets are sucker bets. Why would anyone bet a horse at 8-1 when you lose if the horse scratches?

First of all, it's highly unlikely that Uncle Mo will win the Derby, juvenile bc winners haven't fared well and he's probably got less than a 50-50 chance to even start in the race. The problem with a prolific 2yo, often they are simply physically ahead of their generation, but many of these colts don't mature as much as you'd think they would and they disappoint as a three year old. Think of Arazi, Vindication, etc. I think only one juvenile winner has ever won the Derby, Street Sense.

While I agree with you in principle, Mo looks like a horse who hasn't actually completely filled out yet and he might get even better. Now if only he could stay healthy.

[pandy]

I hope you're right, it he continues to mature he'll be fun to watch.

[CBedo]

Taking 8/1 today seems pretty nuts to me. You are combining the probabilities of him winning with the probability of him even running, combined with tying up your money for 6 months.

[gm10]

Taking 8/1 today seems pretty nuts to me. You are combining the probabilities of him winning with the probability of him even running, combined with tying up your money for 6 months.

Nuts is a strong word.

Let's say he runs at least one prep next year and he wins it. Chances are he'll be 4/1 for the KD by then, in which case I will lay off the 8/1 and end up with a risk-free 4/1 bet.

[CBedo]

Let's play with some numbers, just for fun to determine how likely it is Mo must make it to the Derby for this to be a fair bet.

Your future bet odds: 8/1
Odds on Derby Day of this standout sure thing: We'll say even money.

So the expected value is the (prob he runs * the prob he wins * odds of win bet) - (prob he runs * prob he loses) - (prob he doesn't run)

If you set this equal to zero and solve for the prob he runs, you might think this is a good bet, but the reality is that you are tying up a bet for about 6 months, so we have to take that into account.

For fun, lets assume:
You make 1000 bets between now and then (5-6 bets a day)
You bet 1.5% of your bankroll on each bet.
So you actually are turning your bankroll over every 67ish bets or in total 15 times.
Your edge on these bets is 10%.
So if you used your dollar to bet normally instead of the future bet, your 1 dollar would have made you (1.10^15) -1 which is over 3.00.

So if we say the future bet must have an expected value of at least what you would have made without it, you find that the probability that Mo runs in the Derby has to be 93% or more for this to be fair bet! Of course, if you think he would have higher odds on Derby day, your bet size is larger, or your edge is higher, the result is even worse (and the opposite, if you make less bets, it's better).

So I'll maintain my intitial terminology...NUTS. ;)

[eastie]

i'd take 33-1 on jaycito

[gm10]

Let's play with some numbers, just for fun to determine how likely it is Mo must make it to the Derby for this to be a fair bet.

Your future bet odds: 8/1
Odds on Derby Day of this standout sure thing: We'll say even money.

So the expected value is the (prob he runs * the prob he wins * odds of win bet) - (prob he runs * prob he loses) - (prob he doesn't run)

If you set this equal to zero and solve for the prob he runs, you might think this is a good bet, but the reality is that you are tying up a bet for about 6 months, so we have to take that into account.

For fun, lets assume:
You make 1000 bets between now and then (5-6 bets a day)
You bet 1.5% of your bankroll on each bet.
So you actually are turning your bankroll over every 67ish bets or in total 15 times.
Your edge on these bets is 10%.
So if you used your dollar to bet normally instead of the future bet, your 1 dollar would have made you (1.10^15) -1 which is over 3.00.

So if we say the future bet must have an expected value of at least what you would have made without it, you find that the probability that Mo runs in the Derby has to be 93% or more for this to be fair bet! Of course, if you think he would have higher odds on Derby day, your bet size is larger, or your edge is higher, the result is even worse (and the opposite, if you make less bets, it's better).

So I'll maintain my intitial terminology...NUTS. ;)

It's an interesting way of thinking and your EV equation is definitely correct, but it kind of stops making sense once you imply that - since I'm making money - a significant part of my bankroll is not being used. Why not use some 1.5% of the bankroll for what I consider to be a value bet? It's not like I'm likely to need that money with the 10% edge that I have.

[CBedo]

It's an interesting way of thinking and your EV equation is definitely correct, but it kind of stops making sense once you imply that - since I'm making money - a significant part of my bankroll is not being used. Why not use some 1.5% of the bankroll for what I consider to be a value bet? It's not like I'm likely to need that money with the 10% edge that I have.i'm with ya. I'm just screwing around with the numbers. You know what they say: "statistics don't like, statasticians do."

[gm10]

i'm with ya. I'm just screwing around with the numbers. You know what they say: "statistics don't like, statasticians do."

Churchill made it 'there are lies, damned lies, and statistics' :)

[Mr Saratoga]

Mo is a nice horse, but lets be sane here, and wait six months.