Place betting for Sat, 10/23

[Ray2000]

I've been playing around with the place pools lately, trying to keep from getting shark bit.:p

That Twin Spires toteboard import spreadsheet has a new feature, Percent Chance to Place based on Win pool wagers, along with Overlay alerts for minimum place bet returns and weighted average place pool returns.
The new version is in that thread.

So let's try a small Experiment, here's 44 place bets on low - medium priced horses that Ray's Robot likes.
Results to follow.....

BANG R2 #2 Sams My Name-3/1
BANG R4 #6 Jessies Whim-7/1
BMLP R4 #8 Mischief Man-7/2
BMLP R9 #5 Another Judy-8/1
BTVA R3 #3 Hesaporsche-5/2
BTVA R6 #2 Westway-5/2
CALX R5 #1 You Go Shirl-6/1
CALX R6 #1 Rush County Smoke-7/2
CALX R15 #4 Roger J-4/1
CNL R3 #2 Sj's Warrior-5/1
FHLD R1 #1 Gold Star Smokin-6/1
FHLD R7 #1 Albert Street A-3/1
FHLD R10 #2 King Otra-3/1
FLMD R8 #7 Autumn Audit-9/5
FLMD R11 #9 Constant United-8/2
GEOD R8 #6 Whycantiforgetyou-3/1
GEOD R10 #4 Durhams Cam-3/1
INDY R1 #2 Shipps Con-5/2
INDY R5 #10 Ice Man Comet'h-5/1
INDY R13 #10 Cooperstown Kid-8/1
LEB R5 #6 Mapley-6/1
LON R7 #3 Isthatallyagot-8/1
M R1 #1 Mojarra Hanover-5/1
M R5 #3 Doubletrouble-5/1
NFLD R3 #7 Cruisin N Surfin-15/1
NFLD R7 #1 That Fly'n Angel-15/1
NOR R7 #3 Mega Chips-5/2
NOR R9 #2 Howyadoinpal-4/1
PCD R3 #1 Ellisarro Hanover-3/1
PPK R5 #8 Scott's Sweety-6/1
SCAR R4 #8 Whitlock N-5/2
SCAR R6 #4 Len Drummond-7/2
SCAR R11 #2 Marks Little Buddy-5/2
STGA R2 #6 Whythehellnot N-3/1
STGA R4 #3 Brody Hanover-5/2
STGAMAT R4 #2 Don'twanttobeblue-5/2
STGAMAT R9 #4 Crown Lady-5/2
STGAMAT R13 #7 Jo Pa's Wish-4/1
VD R6 #5 Mikey Wants More-5/1
VD R7 #9 Kingsandqueens-9/2
WDB R5 #3 Goodbadanddeugly N-5/1
YR R6 #3 Trueys Legacy-4/1
YR R7 #5 Handsome Harry-8/1
YR R10 #4 Idealic Life-4/1

[douglasw32]

Can't wait to see this =)

[Ray2000]

The Results are in, Place bets did OK but Win wagering was better.
At least for one small night.:)

$88 Wagered to Win or Place
23 of 44 (52%) Placed, Returning $100.60, net +$12.60 (14%)
13 of 44 (30%) Won, Returning $110.40, net +$22.40 (24%)

BANG...2...2...Sams My Name-3/1
BANG...4...6...Jessies Whim-7/1..........$6.60
BMLP...4...8...Mischief Man-7/2..........$3.40............Won $5.00
BMLP...9...5...Another Judy-8/1..........$8.20............Won $22.60
BTVA...3...3...Hesaporsche-5/2...........$3.80
BTVA...6...2...Westway-5/2
CALX...5...1...You Go Shirl-6/1
CALX...6...1...Rush County Smoke-7/2.....$9.20............Won $15.60
CALX...15..4...Roger J-4/1
CNL....3...2...Sj's Warrior-5/1..........$3.60............Won $10.40
FHLD...1...1...Gold Star Smokin-6/1
FHLD...7...1...Albert Street A-3/1.......$2.10............Won $3.00
FHLD...10..2...King Otra-3/1
FLMD...8...7...Autumn Audit-9/5..........$2.20
FLMD...11..9...Constant United-8/1......$12.90
GEOD...8...6...Whycantiforgetyou-3/1.....$3.50
GEOD...10..4...Durhams Cam-3/1
INDY...1...2...Shipps Con-5/2............$2.20............Won $2.80
INDY...5...10..Ice Man Comet'h-5/1.......$5.00............Won $10.40
INDY...13..10..Cooperstown Kid-8/1
LEB....5...6...Mapley-6/1................$5.00............Won $7.40
LON....7...3...Isthatallyagot-8/1
M......1...1...Mojarra Hanover-5/1.......$3.80
M......5...3...Doubletrouble-5/1.........$2.60............Won $3.80
NFLD...3...7...Cruisin N Surfin-15/1.
NFLD...7...1...That Fly'n Angel-15/1.....$3.20
NOR....7...3...Mega Chips-5/2............$2.60............Won $3.40
NOR....9...2...Howyadoinpal-4/1
PCD....3...1...Ellisarro Hanover-3/1.....$4.20............Won $6.20
PPK....5...8...Scott's Sweety-6/1
SCAR...4...8...Whitlock N-5/2
SCAR...6...4...Len Drummond-7/2..........$4.80............Won $6.40
SCAR...11..2...Marks Little Buddy-5/2
STGA...2...6...Whythehellnot N-3/1.......$3.10
STGA...4...3...Brody Hanover-5/2
STGAMAT4...2...Don'twanttobeblue-5/2.....$2.70
STGAMAT9...4...Crown Lady-5/2............$2.80
STGAMAT13..7...Jo Pa's Wish-4/1
VD.....6...5...Mikey Wants More-5/1
VD.....7...9...Kingsandqueens-9/2
WDB....5...3...Goodbadanddeugly N-5/1
YR.....6...3...Trueys Legacy-4/1
YR.....7...5...Handsome Harry-8/1
YR.....10..4...Idealic Life-4/1..........$3.10............Won $13.40

[douglasw32]

NICE !

[teddy]

Were all the bets screened by some payoff min. Like in conditional wagers. Did all the wagers get placed or were some paying too low to place and kicked out.

[Ray2000]

thx guys

teddy

My computer program produces an odds line for each race and I screened the playlist for races where top pick was assigned 6/5 or lower. This usually results in many low priced selections but for this "Experiment" I was testing out that Spreadsheet that imports the toteboard numbers and hi-lights potential place pool overlays. The only actual place bets I made were a few in the afternoon. At night, I was trying to watch PENS hockey and the Tote at the same time and that doesn't work,:) I put up the results for the entire pick list but I normally don't bet favorites.

The reason I chose to list computer picks < 6/5 is that I had been analyzing some computer pick results and noticed what I thought was a strange performance on place bet vs win bet returns. The attached graph is a plot of capital balance vs race number when races are sorted on pic1's odds, lo to hi. Black is betting to Win, Green line is betting to place, (Blue is for exactas). For the first 12,000 races the place bets (5.4% roi) outdid the win return (1.8% roi)

Here's the list for today, almost all ML faves, but this is NFL watching day. Go Steelers

Track Race Pick Name/ML
CHST 2 5 Or-7/2
CHST 12 1 Native Doll-5/2
CHST 11 7 Transcending-4/1
CNL 7 2 Snows Bangert Boy-6/1
FLMD 4 1 Bumpsandbruises-3/1
HAR 5 8 Chilli Nz-3/1
HAR 6 5 Enee Weenie And Me-2/1
HAR 3 2 Catchmecullen A-5/2
HAR 12 3 Richard Henry N-3/1
RIDC 11 3 Isnt He Lucky-2/1
RIDC 2 2 Ardyne Ace-4/1
SCAR 11 4 Light Iron-7/2
SCAR 6 5 Simka-6/1
SCAR 2 5 Wall Street Wally-9/2
STGA 12 3 Roxies Big Guy-2/1
STGA 3 5 Diana Hall-3/1
STGA 9 3 Semjac Legacy-9/5
WR 9 1 Dontpassdamustard-2/1
WR 7 3 Artashack-9/5
WR 8 2 Bay Lane-3/1